BRIEF POLICY

POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE? Paweł Swieboda´

SUMMARY The parliamentary elections on 21 October 2007 produced Donald Tusk, the new Polish Prime Minister, wants to bring Poland back to the heart of Europe, a new governing coalition between the Civic Platform and the rebuilding ties with Germany and France to create Polish People’s Party, prompting a sigh of relief in Warsaw’s a ‘Weimar Triangle’, lessening tensions with Russia, foreign policy establishment. The new government, headed and trying to make the country a genuine player by Donald Tusk, is set on changing the country’s foreign in European foreign policy. policy profi le and wants to erase memories associated with The new Government will try to rebalance its the self-centred style of their predecessors. The Kaczyn´ski relationship with the United States, slowing down twins wholeheartedly believed that Poland needed to use the move towards missile defence and withdrawing every opportunity to assert its national interests, and its troops from Iraq. eagerly used their veto power on a range of issues, including the new EU-Russia partnership agreement, the January Although there will be a change of style on contentious issues like Russia, the new government 2006 tax package, the directive on the transfer of prisoners, will still be an ‘assertive partner’ opting out of the and the European Day Against the Death Penalty. Donald Charter of Fundamental Rights; unlikely to join Tusk’s new team will follow a different logic, working more the euro; and likely to put up a fi ght against reform through discussion and persuasion rather than obstruction. of the EU budget. The incoming government enjoys strong public support Co-habitation with President Lech Kaczyn´ski and has the necessary self-confi dence to change Poland’s will create tensions but the government has the position and perception within the EU. constitutional powers and the moral clout to set the agenda. Tusk’s challenge

Poland has been through a rough ride in the past two years with the twin brothers, Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczyn´ski, in two key positions. They focused on the past rather than the future and aimed to strengthen state institutions by weakening mechanisms of public accountability. They pursued an agenda that never quite fi tted the rapidly modernising country, and notoriously believed in conspiracy theories. 2 ECFR/03 December 2007 POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE? fmla fc i Pls pltc, e a be a party a been has he politics, Polish in face familiar A olwn te eakby moh omto o te new the of formation smooth remarkably the Following ad ceue t bcm mme o te cegn zone Schengen the of member become to scheduled (and h Ts gvrmn hs gnie potnt to opportunity genuine a has government Tusk The policy foreign new Poland’s of principles guiding The The party’s leader, Donald Tusk, is a post-ideological liberal is party political a as Platform Civic the of journey The It might come as a further surprise to many in European in many to surprise further a as come might It used society Polish the that therefore, surprise, a not was It He failed to show up at conferences and meetings organised Kaczyn´skis’the reality, in However, on linger might legacy Council of Europe, OECD, NATO and the European Union European the and NATO OECD, Europe, of Council – history Polish in era new a matches that policy foreign a tangible and allies new require would change policy clear a putting that knows government The clear. already are and fresh bring will Tusk that means it if disadvantage, a apparent an Kaczyn´ski to Lech due to bid presidential a ey eiicn o te og n wny od ht Poland that road windy and long the of reminiscent very olto gvrmn, h ti bohr’ tn i power in stint brothers’ twin the engagement. government, coalition public of level impressive an displaying f h pe20 pro. ih oad aig ond the joined having Poland With period. pre-2004 the of one that is no longer burdened with the aspirational agenda forward- modern, a build to hard worked has He electable. who has absorbed strong traits of conservatism to become to conservatism of traits strong absorbed has who 1989, since Poland in registered highest the of one was model offoreignandEuropeanpolicy. the with continuity signal would first interests national lost he 2005, In top. the to way his fought never belongs in the European Parliament. Neither did he try to try he did Neither Parliament. European the in belongs by the European People’s Party, to which the Civic Platform show any interest in doing the political rounds in Brussels. in rounds political the doing in interest any show forget. to want just they dream bad a like many to seems international engagement. At present, everything suggests everything present, At engagement. international reflsafely now can Tusk 2007), December in own his on ect innovative ideastothediplomatictable. a taeld ic te n o te od a i 1989. in War Cold the of end the since travelled has lack ofpassionforthejob. figures. party prominent of expense the at leadership looking party structure, and never shied away from exerting policy objectives. Tusk has a unique opportunity to design to opportunity unique a has Tusk objectives. policy that fact the of aware also are They government. previous be necessarily not may That speeches. and publications a as himself position not did Tusk election, his to prior that circles political had but years, for leader parliamentary a and politician oiy Hwvr a ie pcue s mrig bu what about emerging is picture mixed a However, policy. for muchlongerthanmostassume. omlt a atgte dfeet rmwr fr Poland’s for framework different altogether an formulate that the government will adopt a pragmatic stance in foreign turnout offi Voter of ce. out Party Justice and vote Law to their October in elections early the of opportunity the connoisseur of world politics through politics world of of world politics through Anne Applebaum, the celebrity Washington Post columnist Post Washington celebrity the Applebaum, Anne 1990s, he started his career at the right end of the political the of end right the at career his started he 1990s, wywiadrzekazRados 2 Justice Party to get into the Senate but he never offinever he cially but Senate the into get to Party Justice 05 n 20 ad ae u wt a oeal positive overall an with out came and 2007 and 2005 Prime Minister Tusk made an interesting choice of foreign of choice interesting an made Tusk Minister Prime Poland modernise its armed forces. Sikorski is married to married is Sikorski forces. armed its modernise Poland neo- the joined he government, of change a Following wih a sm Pls top edn u udr NATO under up ending troops Polish some saw (which Kaczyn´skis’ ambition to continue shaping the foreign policy He is a shrewd analyst of international relations, but as a as but relations, international of analyst shrewd a is He minister, defence as tenure his during evolved views His as Angola and Afghanistan in conflicts the covered He uig h Otbr lcin, e o a parliamentary a won he elections, October the During n ohr udr S omn) A te ae ie he time, same the At command). US under others and the to due but Congo and Afghanistan in including abroad, early the In journey. ideological complex a on been also senior of team appointed newly the of competence and ambition personal the on depend also will Success agenda. a supporterratherthancontender. Prime of sign a is nomination His minister. foreign as and writer. politics, into moved and 1989, to 1986 from reporter a at Oxford University, having left communist Poland in 1981. Minister Tusk’s considerable trust in Sikorski. Having said Having Sikorski. in trust considerable Tusk’s Minister decision-makers andadvisors. clear what the overarching formula will be, but Sikorski has Washington. in Institute Enterprise American conservative a pasd y h am fr dacn much-needed advancing for army the by praised was when he was confronted with the US’s unwillingness to help record. He made the case for an active Polish engagement Polish active an for case the made He record. has who politician colourful a Sikorski, Radek in minister member on 2 December, two weeks after his appointment his after weeks two December, 2 on member modernisation programmes in the military. Sikorski studied New facesofforeignpolicy ond h pry H sre a dfne iitr between minister defence as served He party. the joined rens o hs eue h dd o mng t prevent to manage not did he tenure, his of briefness since. In 2005, Sikorski ran on the ticket of the Law and Law the of ticket the on ran Sikorski 2005, In ground since. centre the to moved gradually has and spectrum seat on the Civic Platform ticket. He only became a party a became only He ticket. Platform Civic the on seat serving as deputy defence and foreign minister in the 1990s. neve i 2007 in interview approach. introverted less and engaged more a indicated oiiin e tl nes o sals a rn nm. n an In name. brand a establish to needs still he politician style in different markedly be will policy foreign Sikorski’s as Sikorski need will Tusk which for elections presidential rm ht f i peeesr An Ftg. t s o yet not is It Fotyga. Anna predecessor, his of that from h flot rm h lc o codnto i Afghanistan in coordination of lack the from fallout the they can realistically achieve, especially in light of President that, the arrangement may also be connected to the 2010 the to connected be also may arrangement the that, Ł ukasz Warzecha,“Strefazdekomunizowana – ł awem Sikorskim”,2007. 2 e ad h tastatc community transatlantic the said he had two major geo-strategic challenges to tackle. The fi rst The Civic Platform’s record task was to support the transition of new democracies in the post-Soviet space, while the second was to democratise The Tusk government’s number one challenge will be to the Middle East. He reaffi rmed this commitment by making return Poland to the EU’s centre of gravity. The government, a trip to the Annapolis Middle East peace conference last however, will be constrained by the Civic Platform’s previous November. record on Europe. It was Civic Platform leader Jan Rokita, now temporarily out of politics, who famously coined the These two objectives are likely to defi ne Sikorski’s foreign “Nice or death” slogan in a speech to the parliament in policy. A strong presence in Eastern Europe and Central 2004. This tied the hands of the then social-democratic Asia has always been a priority for Polish governments. government in the negotiations on the Constitutional Equally, no politician has dared to question publicly Polish Treaty. Early in 2007, it was the Civic Platform that support for Ukraine’s European aspiration. If Sikorski launched the controversial idea of an alternative voting is to succeed, he will need to go beyond these objectives system to be introduced in the European Union, based and contribute to the battle of ideas about the future on the square root of the population. The Kaczyn´ski framework of the EU’s relations with its neighbours – government duly adopted the proposal, even though it never coming up with an Eastern European answer to President carried any chance of getting through. Regardless of the Sarkozy’s plan for a Mediterranean Union. He will also need political realities of the time, it was the Civic Platform that to back up his pledges with fi nancial support, and increase orchestrated a parliamentary resolution a week before the bilateral assistance. Sikorski’s interest in the Middle East June 2007 European Council to make sure the government will be tested through his skill to design a distinctive and stood fi rm on the square root position. innovative strategy. Like most other Polish political forces, the Civic Platform Sikorski is not the only foreign policy professional in has never been overly enthusiastic about EU-related or Tusk’s team. In the Prime Minister’s immediate entourage, foreign policy-focused debates. At the party’s February Władysław Bartoszewski, an Auschwitz survivor, has 2007 convention, for example, only two speakers talked been appointed as foreign policy advisor in charge of about the EU. In general, the party’s pro-European instincts mending relations with Germany. In his mid-80s now, are not as strong as those of their electorate, who – surveys Bartoszewski played an important role in the election show – would wholeheartedly embrace Brussels on most campaign, delivering a powerful critique of the outgoing policy fronts. government and its foreign minister Anna Fotyga. He often commented that the Kaczyn´ski brothers had shaken the foundations of Polish foreign policy and turned Reaching out to key partners the country into an unpredictable partner in Europe3. Bartoszewski is a political heavyweight, whose appointment The new government’s declared goal is to break with the will increase Tusk’s personal authority on international past and reposition Poland in Europe. Donald Tusk stressed affairs. It will be a drawback for Tusk, however, that that he wants Poland to be “a key actor on the European Bartoszewski has little to say on major topical issues such and the global stage”4, and he listed all big EU member as globalisation, climate change or international terrorism. states as key partners. He has pledged to improve relations Tusk will need a team of professionals familiar with the with Germany, and wants to strengthen the ‘Weimar workings of the EU and NATO, as well as key issues of the Triangle’, which has brought together leaders of Germany, day, to be successful in foreign policy. France and Poland since 1991. He also plans to refresh old alliances within the framework of the Visegrad Group Another person to watch in the new government is (made up of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Defence Minister Bogdan Klich, an experienced, ambitious Slovakia). Hopefully, the government will soon make the and dynamic politician, former Member of the European most of Poland’s position at the centre of a number of Parliament and founder of the Kraków-based Institute for political families inside the EU, with further groupings Strategic Studies. Klich, a medical doctor by training, has including the 3+3+2 Baltic formula or the Regional accumulated solid foreign and security policy experience. Partnership (Visegrad Four plus Austria and Slovenia). He served as deputy defence minister in 1999-2000 in Jerzy It can take advantage of these frameworks to promote Buzek’s government. new ideas and solutions, especially when it comes to the most diffi cult tasks such as the EU budget review.

4 3 Opening address to the Parliament on 23 November, 2007 Władysław Bartoszewski quoted in “Gazeta Wyborcza”, 24 September 2007. by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 3 4 ECFR/03 December 2007 POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE? t rsn, ite s nw aot h nw government’s new the about known is little present, At hl mvn coe t Erp, h nw oenet has government new the Europe, to closer moving While EU’s Neighborhood Policy has been one of the key points of would This continue. will processes both for support Polish Tusk government suffigovernment Tusk fito time cient new the what out gure and poodle, of role the play to refuse will government Tusk Turkish progress in the European Parliament. Given that the Turkey, while defending an extremist, negative position on towards overtures positive made has government Tusk The a with hand-in-hand go will defence missile on shift The It largely agrees with its predecessor on the importance of importance the on predecessor its with agrees largely It US presidentwillmeanforthemissiledefenceproject. the However, Europe. Eastern and Central in presence US Dealing withRussiaandenlargement azn si oenet a nt ae en niey wrong entirely been have Kaczyn´ski not may government relations describing minister prime new the with Russia AO ra E) ates n Rsi. hs il ie the give will This Russia. and partners EU) (read NATO bod I te ore f 08 top wl b gradually be will troops 2008, of course the In abroad. also be a welcome change from the Law and Justice Party’s Justice and Law the from change welcome a be also the but Moscow, towards signal friendly a was This OECD. oenet none a idegon slto to solution middle-ground a announced government oflitn sac o fral spotn elreet to enlargement supporting formally of confl stance icting lift to then and produce, agricultural Polish on embargo of member a even yet not is Russia that given issue this on to decided government new the fi sessions, its rst of one fiopened desire Poland’s of sign a In civilians. Afghan on re will try to re-balance the Poland-US bilateral relationship bilateral Poland-US the re-balance to try will with Moscow as the biggest foreign policy challenge. During withdrawn from Iraq - although the government is planning mission in Afghanistan. This will be a hard sell, as public as sell, hard a be will This Afghanistan. in mission missions to approach government’s the in realignment reference in Polish foreign policy, it is likely that ‘business that likely is it policy, foreign Polish in reference being crushedonthestreetsofMoscow. start talks on a new agreement with EU. In the meantime, the In EU. with agreement new a on talks start plummeting been has mission Afghan the for support US. the with relations Poland’s cool will it that signalled ntlain i Pln, n evsgd oslain with consultations envisaged and Poland, in installations Tusk offi the taking ce, after days Just favour. Poland’s in honouring anearliercommitment. it t ojcin oad Rsi’ mmesi i the in membership Russia’s towards objection its lift lde t sn 30 ros o h E msin n Chad, in mission EU the to troops 350 send to pledged oiis atog oe a asm ta te traditional the that assume can one although policies, for giving a positive signal just as opposition protests were protests opposition as just signal positive a giving for and Russia in situation rights human the disregarding for allegedly forces Polish which in incident recent a following h cnrvril su o hsig S isl defence missile US hosting of issue controversial the strong a promotes and world the in role strategic US’ the hnig n h E’ elreet n neighbourhood and enlargement EU’s the on thinking government new the criticised Party Justice and Law the to mandate Commission’s European the on veto Polish the Russian the of rid get to was aim the However, WTO. the also has government the credentials, European its boost to police EU-led the to contribution its of size the increase to Poland itself is ready to undertake as part of the EU effort to global wider on view a develop to have also will Poland other many on team-player a become to likely is Poland EU throughopt-outsandrebates. Poland will contribute to the phenomenon of weakening the resorted has government The text. the to up signed Poland The Kaczyn´ski cabinet decided to join the British protocol British Kaczyn´skithe The join to decided cabinet The incoming Tusk government was lucky that the Treaty of Tusk, therefore, had to reverse his own promise and keep and promise own his reverse to had therefore, Tusk, Handling theTreatyofLisbon oee, oad uk a t rtik i sac when stance his rethink to had Tusk Donald However, the been not had this If deal. done a practically was Lisbon Hence, it will be more likely to align itself with the EU plans Charter, the to subscribing not By gone). Kaczyn´ski is as usual’ will continue in this fithis in continue will usual’ as have however, will, This eld. cvc oeet n is ih o pel o h widest the to appeal to wish its and movement civic a ovnin etn o ciae hne hc wl force will which change climate on meeting Convention approach on the gas and oil pipeline networks from producer the at it to up sign will it that and principle”, “in Charter give up the British protocol (the opposition’s endorsement opposition’s (the protocol British the up give ifrn iflune. h ms imdae hleg has challenge immediate most The influences. different between torn itself found have may government the case, hlegs I 20, h cuty il ot h nx UN next the host will country the 2008, In challenges. countries. diversifia support to continue transit and supplies of cation will Poland sector. energy the in unbundling ownership on privatisation. for up it open will and sector energy the of Lech President when (read opportunity possible earliest il togy upr te uoen omsins efforts Commission’s European the support strongly will ae lt f es gvn h prys siain t be to aspirations party’s the given sense of lot a made Kaczyn´skis’the given heirs move self-nominated as image ots ad il apin o a oriae European coordinated a for campaign will and routes, en h sau o te hre o Fnaetl Rights. Fundamental of Charter the of status the been support ratifisupport to were government the if Treaty the of cation meitl atr h Otbr lcin ta i wl allow will it that elections October the after immediately ideas ontheMediterraneanUnion. issues. On energy policy, for instance, the Polish government parliament). in qualifivote a majority get ed to required is not would Party Justice and Law the that clear became it limiting the Charter’s application to social rights – a dubious limit greenhousegasemissions. its from depart to intends government The liberalisation. possible electorate. attempt an and Moldova, and Georgia Ukraine, in projects rdcsos peeec fr heacia integration hierarchical a for preference predecessors’ the Charter to be fully applied in Poland. Such a position a Such Poland. in applied fully be to Charter the announced Platform Civic The movement. Solidarity the to Sarkozy’s Nicolas to answer ‘Eastern-facing’ an devise to bilateral to commitments tangible more with coupled be to h gvrmn t gt lrt o te omtet which commitments the on clarity get to government the with ahead move and market European the consolidate to the of favour in is it that declaration political a making to The EU budget and the euro The relationship has been further poisoned by the recent nomination of former foreign minister Anna Fotyga as The new government is unlikely to join efforts to modernise head of the Presidential Chancellery, one of the key posts the EU budget. Instead, it will put up a big fi ght to maintain in the presidential administration. Fotyga is so close to its own share of EU funds beyond year 2013. In the current Lech Kaczyn´ski that the media sometimes refer to her as seven year budget, Poland is the biggest benefi ciary of EU the third twin. In her new role, she is likely to continue cohesion funds, and Polish farmers will begin to receive with the prickly attitude towards Poland’s key partners direct CAP payments once transition arrangements end. and allies which characterized her style as foreign minister. In addition, the Tusk government is likely to be cautious Since President Kaczyn´ski has good contacts in Georgia, on entering the euro zone. The issue could seriously hurt Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Lithuania, it is likely that Tusk’s standing in Europe, just as it weakened Tony Blair’s he will develop a geographical specialisation focusing on when he shied away from a clear decision. The opportunity countries of Central and Eastern Europe. He is also likely never presented itself again for the British Prime Minister, to occasionally make life diffi cult for the government by and it may well be the same for Donald Tusk. Although blocking ambassadorial nominations. Tusk’s fi nance minister, Jacek Rostowski, is a British-born economist who used to be in favour of a unilateral adoption Cohabitation has never been very easy in Polish foreign of the euro, he has since changed his mind and now talks policy. In the 1990s, Aleksander Kwasniewski, the left- about the importance of prudence. Many Polish economists wing president, often quarrelled with his centre-right argue that Poland should have introduced the euro when the prime minister, Jerzy Buzek, but their arguments were country’s macroeconomic indicators looked substantially constrained by the need to meet NATO and EU accession better. Rising infl ation, the volatility of international requirements. The pressure on Poland is now different. markets and the zloty’s appreciation will all make Poland’s Poland’s leadership now has to prove to the EU that it is a adoption of the euro more complicated. Rostowski himself worthy member of the club, especially in light of the country’s has already criticised the requirement to simultaneously upcoming Council presidency, currently scheduled for 2011. fulfi l the infl ation and exchange rate stability criteria. His The Prime Minister called this opportunity the “crowning of rhetoric tends to be close to that of British Prime Minister the country’s European and international aspirations”. Gordon Brown, and it would not be surprising if he copied Brown’s adoption of economic tests to judge the country’s All in all, the new Polish government will have a business- progress towards joining the euro. like approach to the European Union. It understands that compromise is an essential element of the EU’s decision- making process. It will build alliances and accept the notion A double-headed foreign policy? of collective interests – an approach entirely absent from Poland’s European and foreign policy in the last two years. Poland’s Prime Minister and President will compete for Although the new government has strong feelings on issues infl uence over their country’s international orientation. such as the review of the EU budget, it will think twice The Constitution makes clear that the main body responsible before vetoing EU decisions. Poland’s change presents for decision-making in foreign policy is the government. other EU capitals with an opportunity to engage Warsaw as However, this will undoubtedly become a diffi cult area of a constructive partner on the European stage. They should cohabitation with the country’s president, Lech Kaczynski. capitalise on Poland’s new openness and its determination The President nominates and recalls ambassadors and to return to the European mainstream. ‘cooperates’ with relevant ministers, which is generally interpreted as a mandate to play an important but supportive About the author: Paweł Swieboda ´ is President role. But if he wishes, the President has every opportunity of the Warsaw-based think-tank demos EUROPA- to remain infl uential in the region and the world. After all, Centre for European Strategy. he is the natural interlocutor of foreign heads of state, from Washington via Paris on to Moscow.

The opening shots have already been exchanged on the Charter of Fundamental Rights and on dealing with Russia. Kaczynski has begun to carve out a space for himself by skipping the Prime Minister’s opening speech to parliament and turning up at Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s party convention in Tbilisi as the fi rst Western leader after the turmoil in Georgia started. Tusk, on the other hand, has reciprocated by failing to discuss the Russian OECD decision with the President, and allegedly failing to inform him. 5 6 ECFR/03 December 2007 POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE? www.ecfr.eu grants toindividualsorinstitutions. ECFR worksinpartnershipswithotherorganisationsbutdoesnotmake the CommunitasFoundationandDr. HannesAndrosch. ECFR isbackedbytheSorosFoundationsNetwork,SigridRausing,FRIDE, policy-making andcivicaction. connectionsbetweeninnovativethinking, and themediatomakenecessary ECFR’s pan-Europeanadvocacyandcampaignswillworkthroughtheinternet provide adviceandproposalsontheEU’s bigglobalchallenges. some ofEurope’s mostdistinguishedanalystsandpolicyentrepreneursto With officesinsevencountries,ECFR’s in-housepolicyteambringstogether culture attheheartofEuropeanforeignpolicy. journalists andpublicintellectuals.Theiraimistopromoteanewstrategic ministers andparliamentarians,businessleaders,distinguishedacademics, andformer ECFR wasfoundedbyacouncilwhosemembersincludeserving genuinely pan-EuropeanperspectiveonEurope’s roleintheworld: European interestsandvalues.Withitsuniquestructure,ECFRbringsa to promoteamoreintegratedEuropeanforeignpolicyinsupportofshared The EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelationswaslaunchedinOctober2007 ABOUT ECFR [email protected] Senior PolicyFellow François Godement [email protected] Senior PolicyFellow John Fox [email protected] Senior PolicyFellow Anthony Dworkin [email protected] Program Assistant Cvetelina Buncheva [email protected] Head ofSofi a Offi ce Senior PolicyFellow Ognyan Minchev [email protected] Head ofParisOffi ce Editorial Director Thomas Klau [email protected] Head ofMadridOffi ce Senior PolicyFellow José Ignacio Torreblanca [email protected] Head ofBerlinOffi ce Senior PolicyFellow Ulrike Guérot [email protected] Deputy Director Hans Wolters [email protected] Executive Director Mark Leonard [email protected] Program Assistant Stephanie Yates [email protected] Senior PolicyFellow Nick Witney andrew.wilson @ecfr.eu Senior PolicyFellow Andrew Wilson zsofi [email protected] and MediaRelations Communication Zsofi a Szilagyi [email protected] Policy Fellow Nicu Popescu [email protected] PA toExecutiveDirector Katherine Parkes [email protected] Policy Fellow Pierre Noel [email protected] Advocacy Alba Lamberti [email protected] Senior PolicyFellow Daniel Korski [email protected] Policy Fellow Richard Gowan Among the fifty founding members Brian Eno (United Kingdom) Chris Patten of the European Council on MusicianMusician aandnd pproducerroducer (United Kingdom) Foreign Relations are former prime ChancellorChancellor ooff OOxfordxford UUniversity;niversity; FFormerormer ministers, presidents, European Joschka Fischer (Germany) EU Commissioner and Governor of commissioners, current and former FormerFormer FForeignoreign MMinisterinister aandnd Hong Kong parliamentarians and ministers, vice-Chancellor public intellectuals, business Timothy Garton Ash Diana Pinto (France) leaders, activists and cultural (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) Historian and author figures from the EU member states ProfessorProfessor ooff EEuropeanuropean SStudies,tudies, Ruprecht Polenz (Germany) and candidate countries. Oxford University ChairmanChairman ooff tthehe FForeignoreign AAffairsffairs Committee of the Bundestag Urban Ahlin (Sweden) Bronislaw Geremek (Poland) Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Member of European Parliament, ALDE Andrew Puddephatt Affairs Committee; foreign policy Group; former Foreign Minister (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) spokesperson for the Social Director,Director, GGloballobal PPartnersartners Diego Hidalgo (Spain) & Associates Ltd. Democratic Party Co-founder,Co-founder, EEll PPaís;aís; PPresidentresident ooff FFRIDERIDE Sigrid Rausing Martti Ahtisaari (Finland) Mary Kaldor UN Special Envoy for Future Status (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) Founder,Founder, SigridSigrid RRausingausing TTrustrust Process for Kosovo; President of ProfessorProfessor aandnd DDirectorirector ooff tthehe CCentreentre fforor the Crisis Management Initiative; the Study of Global Governance, London Albert Rohan (Austria) former President School of Economics UN Deputy to Special Envoy for the Giuliano Amato (Italy) Gerald Knaus (Germany) Future Status Process for Kosovo MinisterMinister ooff IInterior;nterior; fformerormer PPrimerime Chairman,Chairman, EEuropeanuropean SStabilitytability IInitiative;nitiative; Daniel Sachs (Sweden) Minister and vice president of the Open Society Fellow CEO, Proventus European Convention Caio Koch-Weser (Germany) Pierre Schori (Sweden) Hannes Androsch (Austria) ViceVice CChairman,hairman, DDeutscheeutsche BBankank GGroup;roup; Director General, FRIDE; Founder of AIC Androsch former State Secretary former SRSG to Cote d’Ivoire International Management Consulting Rem Koolhaas Narcís Serra (Spain) (The Netherlands) Chair,Chair, CIDOBCIDOB FFoundation;oundation; Marek Belka (Poland) Architect and urbanist; Professor former Vice President Executive Director of UN at the Graduate School of Design Elif Shafak (Turkey) Economic Commission for Europe; at Harvard University former Prime Minister Writer Ivan Krastev (Bulgaria) Aleksander Smolar (Poland) Svetoslav Bojilov (Bulgaria) ChairChair ooff BBoard,oard, CCentreentre fforor LLiberaliberal Chairman of the Board, Founder,Founder, CommunitasCommunitas FFoundationoundation Strategies President, Venture Equity Bulgaria Ltd. Stefan Batory Foundation Mart Laar (Estonia) George Soros (Hungary/US) Emma Bonino (Italy) Former Prime Minister MinisterMinister fforor EEuropeurope aandnd IInternationalnternational Chairman,Chairman, OOpenpen SSocietyociety IInstitutenstitute Trade; former EU Commissioner Mark Leonard Dominique Strauss-Kahn (France) (United Kingdom) Managing Director, Robert Cooper Executive Director, European International Monetary Fund; Former (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) Council on Foreign Relations DirectorDirector GGeneraleneral fforor EExternalxternal aandnd Finance Minister Politico-Military Affairs, General Adam Lury (United Kingdom) Helle Thorning Schmidt Secretariat of the Council of the EU Director,Director, MMenemshaenemsha LLtd;td; (Denmark)(Denmark) former advisor to Lord Browne Marta Dassù (Italy) Leader of the Social Director,Director, AAspenspen IInstitutenstitute IItaliatalia Alain Minc (France) Democratic Party Chairman, Le Monde; Head of Michiel Van Hulten Gijs de Vries consulting group AM Conseil (The(The NNetherlands)etherlands) (The Netherlands) Senior Fellow, Clingendael Christine Ockrent (Belgium) Managing Director, Burson-Marsteller, Institute; former EU Counter- Editor-in-chief,Editor-in-chief, FFrancerance TTélévisionélévision Brussels; Former Member of European terrorism Coordinator Leoluca Orlando (Italy) Parliament Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgium) MP;MP; PPresident,resident, Mabel Van Oranje (The MemberMember ofof EuropeanEuropean Parliament;Parliament; formerformer Sicilian Renaissance Institute Netherlands)Netherlands) Prime Minister and vice president of the International Advocacy Director, Open Cem Özdemir (Germany) Society Institute European Convention MemberMember ooff EEuropeanuropean Gianfranco Dell’Alba (Italy) Parliament, Greens Group Antonio Vitorino (Portugal) ChefChef ddee CCabinetabinet fforor MMinisterinister Simon Panek Lawyer;Lawyer; fformerormer EEUU CCommissionerommissioner Emma Bonino; former Member (Czech Republic) Sir Stephen Wall of European Parliament Chairman,Chairman, PPeopleeople iinn (United(United KKingdom)ingdom) Need Foundation Chairman,Chairman, HHillill aandnd KKnowltonnowlton ((PublicPublic Andrew Duff Affairs EMEA); former Europe advisor to (United Kingdom) Teresa Patricio Gouveia (Portugal) Tony Blair MemberMember ooff EEuropeanuropean TrusteeTrustee toto thethe BoardBoard ofof thethe CalousteCalouste Parliament, ALDE Group Gulbenkian Foundation; former Foreign Andre Wilkens (Germany) Sarmite Elerte (Latvia) Minister Executive Director, Editor-in-chief, Open Society Institute Brussels daily newspaper Diena

7 8 ECFR/03 December 2007 POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE? ISBN: 978-1-906538-02-6 [email protected] Grove, LondonW60LE (ECFR), 5thFloorCambridgeHouse,100 Published bytheEuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations © ECFRNovember2007. permission oftheEuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations. commercial use.Anyotheruserequiresthepriorwritten publication exceptforyourownpersonalandnon- republish orcirculateinanywaythecontentfromthis on ForeignRelations.Youmaynotcopy,reproduce, Copyright ofthispublicationisheldbyEuropeanCouncil