Canada’s Energy Future: What Role for ?

Jim Prall Systems Programmer The Edward S. Rogers Sr.. Dept. Of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Toronto [email protected] http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall

part-time student of climatology (etc.) The

• Wind power the fastest growing sector – As high as 30% per year growth • Already a mature industry worldwide – Dozens of major manufacturers – Consolidation under way – Mature designs now in mass production • Wind power prices already competitive in many markets, getting closer elsewhere Wind Power Worldwide 2003 Rated capacity, MW

Germany 14609 Spain 6202 Denmark supplying 18% of Denmark 3110 national demand from wind! Netherlands 912 Italy 904 USA 4685 United Kingdom 649 Canada 322 Austria 415 Sweden 399 Greece 375 Portugal 299 France 239 Ireland 186 Wind Power in Ontario

Date in rated Operator Location Service Equipment kW Status 1x Tacke TW-600 CWM Ontario Hydro Tiverton 1995/10 (600 kW) 600 Active

O.P.G. Pickering 2001/10 1x V80 (1,800 kW) 1,800 Active Private Port Albert 2001/12 1x Vestas V47 (660 kW) 660 Active Huron Wind Kincardine 2002/11 5x Vestas V80 9,000 Active Sky Generation Ferndale 2002/11 1x Vestas V80 1,800 Active

Source: http://www.canwea.ca/CanadianProduction.html Wind Power in Canada • Canada has decent wind resources • Yet wind industry not as far along here • Why not? – Cheap power • fossil fuels historically subsidized – Limited political support so far – Provincial utilities slow to embrace wind – Hydro & nuclear power well developed

• Both avoid air quality & CO2 concerns • This may mean less public pressure for wind – Lenders unfamiliar with wind charge more Phasing Out Coal

Smog KILLS thousands in Canada each year

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/pphb-dgspsp/publicat/rdc-mrc01/pdf/rdc0901e.pdf http://eastern.sierraclub.ca/campaign_coal_fired_power_is_killing_us.shtml http://www.oma.org/phealth/report/airq001.pdf Phasing Out Coal

• Smog kills almost 2000 each year • Coal power plants a big problem – More prevalent in U.S. than Canada – Coal reliance by Province: • Alberta: 81% • Saskatchewan: 69% • Nova Scotia: 80% • New Brunswick: 35% • Ontario: 16% <- but out of 22 GW peak load! • Manitoba: 1% How Much Wind: Rated Capacity vs. Yield

• rated or vs. working output: “” (CF) • Depends on technology and application • For wind power this is a vital statistic! • In better wind sites, yields can run about 35% CF. So can’t match 1 MW of wind to 1 MW of other types. Price of Power Today

• Ontario example: retail price per kWh – Generation: 4.3 ¢ • To be raised to 4.7 ¢ (5.5 ¢ after the first 750 kWh/mo.) – Transmission: 1.1 ¢ – Distribution: 0.7 – 1.1 ¢ • Varies with local hydro distribution co. – System operation & regulation: 0.6 ¢ – Stranded nuclear debt charge: 0.7¢ – Total: 7.3 to 7.7 ¢/kWh • Will become 7.7 to 8.1 ¢/kWh (8.5 – 8.9 in 2nd block) How Much Wind Resource Is Out There? • Wind Resource Assessments – National – Provincial – Local • Software modeling is pivotal – a good place to apply computer skills – relies on climatology How Much of the Wind Can Be Exploited? • Cost-effectiveness – Levelized cost: overall cost / lifetime yield – Cost of borrowing looms large • Site ownership / availability • Siting acceptability & permits – Public concern with: • sight • noise • perceived dangers • Hooking into the power grid – Proximity to Transmission – Proximity to Loads Searching for the Best Wind: “Wind Prospecting”

What Makes for Better Winds? Wind Varies with Height

• The geostrophic or “free” wind is strong: – average 25 m/s • But the speed at the surface is zero • The profile of wind with height depends on surface roughness • Low-level turbulence leads to problems http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm To Get at the Best Winds... • Build taller towers? – but this adds cost – and there are practical limits to height – the public and the aviation industry may object • Mountains? • Tops of tall buildings? Getting at Good Winds

• In the end, you need to go to the best locations: flat areas – low surface roughness – long flat “fetch” upwind of your site – least turbulence as well • Open water • Prairies & farm country • Tundra Mapping Canada’s Winds • Canadian Wind Atlas

www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/rpn/modcom/eole/CanadianAtlas.html Compare the Canadian model to this U.S. Model... Canadian model dismisses mountains! Canadian Wind Mapping

• Canada's wind mapping not complete: – National map stalled • Completed only coarse map (25km resolution) • Authors advise the offshore model is unreliable! • Fails to represent mountainous terrain traits • Only 4 smaller areas modeled to Level 1 (5km) • No new data posted in the past year – Provinces working independently on mapping • BC – completed: http://www.bchydro.com/rx_files/environment/environment1839.pdf • P.E.I. http://pei.cbc.ca/regional/servlet/View?filename=pe_windhydrogen20040114 • Nunavut • Newfoundland Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land • Good sites near load: – Southern Alberta – Prairies – Gulf of St. Lawrence coasts • (Hydro Quebec’s Le Nordais) – Locally in Maritimes • (PEI’s North Cape) • PEI already 5% from Wind • Aiming for much more • Trial “hydrogen village” – S.W. Ontario – Ocean coasts Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land • Many of the best wind sites are remote: – Labrador – N. Quebec – Ontario North Shore • James Bay / Hudson’s Bay Canadian Wind Hot-Spots: Off-Shore • Ocean coasts – most extreme conditions for siting • Hudson's Bay • Gulf of St. Lawrence • Bay of Fundy • Great Lakes – Tideless – less swell – close to load! Canada's Wind Resource

Seasonal variations winter peak - historically summer peak - increasing Wind geography: large-scale wind patterns; surface roughness, "fetch" Best winds not always near load centres. Raises the need to weigh transmission cost vs. yield. Thank You! Wind Generation Traits

• Wind resource varies (exogenous). • Wind turbines produce no power at very low wind speeds (below “cut-in” speed) and run well below rated capacity at low-modest wind speeds. • Here is a typical power curve for a contemporary 1MW unit:

Source: http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm Wind Generation Traits, 2

• Wind patterns: frequency of occurrence of different wind speeds • Characterized by Weibull distribution • Curve reflects specifics of a given site

Source: http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm Projecting Yield

• Combine Power Curve and site’s wind frequencies to give projected

annual total 50-100% 0-50% yield 100%

0% -- overspeed cut-out Integrating Wind in the Grid

• Network operators must incorporate wind power as a non-dispatchable resource.

• Wind forecasting software is a key area of development – Allow network operators to make best use of wind output – Incorporate forecast wind output into full network schedule – Costing methods pay the wind operator for correct forecasts “ Labrador ”

(figures in CDN$ millions) 1 # turbines: 400 2,000 8,000 16,000 peak capacity 2.5 MWp 1,000 5,000 20,000 40,000 turbine purchase price $2.99 mil.Cdn. C$ 1,197 C$ 5,984 C$ 23,935 C$ 47,869 foundation construction $0.12 mil.Cdn. C$ 144 C$ 718 C$ 2,872 C$ 5,744 extra installation costs (climate) $0.05 mil.Cdn. C$ 7 C$ 36 C$ 144 C$ 287 Fixed costs C$ 50 C$ 50 C$ 50 C$ 50 total project completion cost C$ 1,398 C$ 6,788 C$ 27,000 C$ 53,951 finance cost, 20 [email protected]%; CRF= 11.35% mil.Cdn. C$ 159 C$ 770 C$ 3,064 C$ 6,122 O & M @ 2% of all capital 2% mil. Cdn. C$ 28 C$ 136 C$ 540 C$ 1,079 total annual cost of production mil. Cdn. C$ 187 C$ 906 C$ 3,604 C$ 7,201 annual yield on 700 Wm^-2 site 10 gWh 4,000 20,000 80,000 annual yield on 650 Wm^-2 site 9 gWh 144,000 Levelized cost before transmissn CAD/kWh $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 share of Cdn coal-fire generation 100,000 gWh 3.50% 17.40% 70% 125% share of all Cdn. Demand 550,000 gWh 0.70% 3.60% 15% 26%