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Modélisation Temporelle De La Consommation Électrique En Analyse Du Cycle De Vie Appliquée Au Contexte Des Tic

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Modélisation Temporelle De La Consommation Électrique En Analyse Du Cycle De Vie Appliquée Au Contexte Des Tic UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL MODÉLISATION TEMPORELLE DE LA CONSOMMATION ÉLECTRIQUE EN ANALYSE DU CYCLE DE VIE APPLIQUÉE AU CONTEXTE DES TIC ELSA MAURICE DÉPARTEMENT DE GÉNIE CHIMIQUE ÉCOLE POLYTECHNIQUE DE MONTRÉAL MÉMOIRE PRÉSENTÉ EN VUE DE L’OBTENTION DU DIPLÔME DE MAÎTRISE ÈS SCIENCES APPLIQUÉES (GÉNIE CHIMIQUE) JANVIER 2015 © Elsa Maurice, 2015. UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL ÉCOLE POLYTECHNIQUE DE MONTRÉAL Ce mémoire intitulé: MODÉLISATION TEMPORELLE DE LA CONSOMMATION ÉLECTRIQUE EN ANALYSE DU CYCLE DE VIE APPLIQUÉE AU CONTEXTE DES TIC présenté par : MAURICE Elsa en vue de l’obtention du diplôme de : Maîtrise ès sciences appliquée a été dûment accepté par le jury d’examen constitué de : M. PERRIER Michel, Ph. D., président M. SAMSON Réjean, Ph. D., membre et directeur de recherche Mme LEVASSEUR Annie, Ph. D., membre M. HENRY Olivier, Ph. D., membre iii DÉDICACE À tous les gentils iv REMERCIEMENTS Je voudrais tout d’abord remercier Thomas Dandres et Réjean Samson pour leur encadrement et leur précieuse aide tout au long de ma maîtrise. Merci pour votre confiance, votre disponibilité et vos idées sans lesquelles je n’aurais pu mener ce projet de recherche. Merci Réjean de m’avoir donné l’opportunité d’intégrer cette merveilleuse équipe du CIRAIG. Parallèlement, je voudrais remercier aussi les équipes de l’ETS et d’Ericsson sans lesquels ce projet n’aurait jamais vu le jour et avec qui on a pu approfondir toutes les notions assez abstraites des technologies de l’information et de la communication et mettre à bien un grand projet multidisciplinaire. Un grand merci aussi à l’ensemble des personnes qui ont appuyées ma recherche comme IESO, AESO pour avoir collaborés avec moi dans la phase de collecte de données, le professeur Partovi Nia Vahid pour son aide en statistique et le CRSNG (Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie) du Canada pour leur précieux financement. Je tiens également à remercier toutes les personnes qui m’ont accordé leur support, notamment l’ensemble des membres présents et passés du bureau A-685, Fanny, Audrey, Nathan, Gaël et Constant avec qui rires et débats étaient une vraie partie de bonheur. Un grand merci à toute l’équipe du CIRAIG pour leur joie de vivre, leur accueil toujours chaleureux et leur grande richesse d’idées. Ce fut un énorme plaisir de travailler de prêt ou de loin avec vous, j’ai vraiment apprécié les diverses activités auxquelles j’ai pu participer allant des forums étudiants à l’après midi main d’œuvre dans la construction d’une maison éco-responsable. Merci à mes amis proches et à ma famille pour leur soutien sans faille pendant toute ma maîtrise. Enfin merci à tous mes collègues, amis avec qui Montréal fut un moment inoubliable. v RÉSUMÉ La Terre a des ressources limitées. Depuis la révolution industrielle l’Homme utilise des ressources énergétiques non renouvelables qui sont responsables d’impacts environnementaux majeurs sur l’environnement. La production d’énergie est un enjeu de taille pour l’ensemble du développement durable. Les systèmes de technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) prennent une place de plus en plus importante dans notre quotidien (internet, téléphonie etc.). À l’échelle de la société il est observé que la croissance des TIC est exponentielle. Les avancées en terme de TIC sont la porte ouverte à de nombreux systèmes intelligents, optimisés et dynamiques, permettant de dématérialiser les services et de lutter contre le réchauffement climatique. Néanmoins, les TIC sont aussi responsables d’une quantité non négligeable d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre GES (3%), induite par leurs consommations électriques importantes. De ce fait, le secteur des TIC collabore activement à mettre en place des mesures visant à réduire les émissions de GES des ses activités. Pour optimiser et évaluer les services de TIC de façon adéquate il est nécessaire d’utiliser des méthodes d’évaluations environnementales qui tiennent compte des particularités des systèmes étudiés. Actuellement, les méthodes de calculs des émissions de GES ne sont pas adaptées aux problématiques dynamiques dont font parties les TIC. En particulier, la variabilité de la production d’électricité demeure absente des lignes directrices des méthodes de calculs des impacts. Au delà de la question de la modélisation des GES c’est toute la problématique temporelle à la fois de la consommation et de la production d’électricité qui se pose. La méthode d’analyse du cycle de vie (ACV) apparaît comme un outil complet d’analyse de l’ensemble des impacts environnementaux mais à l’instar des méthodes de calculs de GES, elle doit aussi être adaptée à des problématiques dynamiques telle que celles de l’électricité et des TIC. Dans le cadre de l’analyse des TIC, il devient donc nécessaire en ACV de modéliser les variations au cours du temps des technologies de production d’électricité susceptibles de faire changer les impacts environnementaux associés à la consommation d’électricité. Ce mémoire de maîtrise propose un nouveau cadre méthodologique afin d’incorporer dans l’ACV les aspects temporels de la production et de la consommation d’électricité. L’étude développe un modèle temporel donnant accès à une série de données de production, d’importations et d’exportations électriques. Le travail est mené autour d’un projet de recherche vi d’implantation d’un réseau interprovincial de « Cloud Computing » au Canada. Le modèle temporel permet de définir historiquement l’impact environnemental par heure induit par la consommation électrique dans trois provinces canadiennes: Alberta, Ontario et Québec. La modélisation temporelle des différentes technologies de production de l’électricité au sein de l’ACV permet d’optimiser le choix du moment d’utilisation de service de TIC, comme par exemple une conversation internet ou encore la maintenance d’un serveur. Ces travaux sont prometteurs car ils autorisent une évaluation environnementale des TIC plus novatrice et permettent l’obtention de données d’inventaire en ACV plus précises. La désagrégation des flux d’inventaire d’électricité en ACV rend le calcul des impacts de la production électrique plus précis à la fois historiquement mais aussi en temps réel. Il a également été mené lors de ce mémoire, une première réflexion sur l’aspect prédictif à très court terme des importations et des exportations électriques, afin de pouvoir anticiper l’optimisation dans le temps d’un service de TIC. À partir des profils historiques de consommation, un modèle prédictif de consommation du Québec a été établi. Le profil environnemental d’un kilowattheure consommé au Québec est étroitement relié aux échanges électriques entre le Québec et les régions avoisinantes. Ces échanges étant corrélés au prix, la température et la demande en puissance, il est possible de prédire le profil environnemental d’un kilowattheure consommé au Québec en fonction de l’évolution de ces paramètres dans le temps. Les résultats obtenus, ouvrent d’importantes perspectives sur l’application prévisionnelle des impacts environnementaux de services comme le « Cloud Computing » ou encore l’ensemble des services dits intelligent comme les « Smart-grid ». Une gestion intelligente entre consommation électrique et impacts environnementaux offre une prise de décision en accords avec le développement durable. vii ABSTRACT Fossil fuels are a scarce energy resource. Since the industrial revolution, mankind uses and abuses of non-renewable energies. They are responsible for many environmental damages. The production of energy is one of the main challenges for a global sustainable development. In our society, we can witness an exponential increase of the usage of the systems of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) such as Internet, phone calls, etc. The ICT development allows the creation and optimization of many smart systems, the pooling of services, and it also helps damping the climate change. However, because of their electric consumption, the ICT are also responsible for some green house gases (GHG) emissions: 3% in total. This fact gives them the willingness to change in order to limit their GHG emissions. In order to properly evaluate and optimize the ICT services, it is necessary to use some methods of evaluation that comply with the specificity of these systems. Currently, the methods used to evaluate the GHG emissions are not adapted to dynamic systems, which include the ICT systems. The variations of the production of electricity in a day or even a month are not yet taken into account. This problem is far from being restricted to the modelling of GHG emissions, it widens to the global variation in production and consumption of electricity. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method grants useful and complete tools to analyse their environmental impacts, but, as with the GHG computation methods, it should be dynamically adapted. In the ICT framework, the first step to solve this LCA problem is to be able to model the variations in time of the electricity production. This master thesis introduces a new way to include the variation in time of the consumption and production of electricity in LCA methods. First, it generates an historical hourly database of the electricity production and import-export of three Canadian states: Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Then it develops a model in function of time to predict their electricity consumption. This study is done for a project implementing a « cloud computing » service in between these states. The consumption model then provides information to optimize the best place and time to make use of ICT services such as Internet messaging or server maintenance. This first-ever implementation of time parameter allows more precision and vision in LCA data. The disintegration of electrical inventory flows in LCA refines the effects of the electricity production both historically and in real time. viii Some short-term predictions for the state of Quebec electrical exportations and importations were also computed in this thesis.
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