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Garanti Bankası’Nın 1Ç2021’Deki Net Dönem Karı 2,5 Milyar TL Ile Beklentilerin Üzerinde Gerçekleşti…

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Garanti Bankası’Nın 1Ç2021’Deki Net Dönem Karı 2,5 Milyar TL Ile Beklentilerin Üzerinde Gerçekleşti… ARAŞTIRMA BÖLÜMÜ 30 Nisan 2021 GARANTİ BANKASI 1Ç2021 Sonuçları HARUN DERELİ [email protected] TURGUT USLU [email protected] “Garanti Bankası’nın 1Ç2021’deki Net Dönem Karı 2,5 milyar TL ile Beklentilerin Üzerinde Gerçekleşti… Öneri : "AL" Garanti BBVA’nın 2021 yılının ilk çeyreğindeki net dönem Hedef Hisse Fiyatı : 11,20TL karı bir önceki çeyreğe göre düşük bazında da etkisiyle Reuters/Bloomberg GARAN.IS/GARAN.TI %128 oranında artarak 2.529mn TL’ye yükselmiş ve Sektör Bankalar hem bizim beklentimiz olan 1.876mn hem de piyasa Dahil Olduğu Ulusal Endeksler XU030, XU050, XU100 beklentisi olan 1.861mn TL’nin üzerinde gerçekleşmiştir. İşlem Gördüğü Pazar Yıldız Pazar Tahminimizdeki sapmada, ticari zarar beklentimize Fiyat 7,23 0,9 USD karşın ticari kar yazılması ve beklentimizden yüksek BİST 100 1.402 171 USD iştirak gelirleri elde edilmesi etkili olmuştur. TL/$ (TCMB Alış) 8,186 Artarak devam eden mevduat maliyeti ile birlikte TÜFE Düşük / Yüksek Son 1 Yıl 6,33 TL 10,53 TL endekslilerden elde edilen gelirin 499mn TL düşerek Hisse Adedi (mn ) 4.200 993mn TL’ye gerilemesi sonrasında net faiz gelirleri bir Piyasa Değeri (mn TL) 30.366 TL önceki çeyreğe göre %3,9 oranında daralarak 1Ç2021’de Fiili Dolaşımdaki Pay Oranı 50,1% 6,3 milyar TL’ye düşmüştür. Öte yandan, net ücret ve Halka Açıklık 48,0% komisyon gelirleri çeyreksel bazda %24,6 oranında Yabancı Yatırımcı Takas Oranı 48,4% artarak 1.859mn TL’ye yükselirken, bir önceki çeyrekte Yerli Yatırımcı Takas Oranı 51,6% kaydedilen 1.702mn TL ticari zarar, bu çeyrekte 70mn TL Getiri 1 Aylık 3 Aylık 1 Yıllık TL (swap maliyeti 771mn TL artarak 2.324mn TL’ye Garanti 7,2% -20,7% -12,2% yükselirken; 1.058mn TL kur korunmasından gelir elde BİST-100 0,6% -4,9% 38,0% edilmiştir, önceki çeyrekte 209mn TL gider BİST-100 Göreceli 6,5% -16,6% -36,3% kaydedilmişti) ticari kara yerini bırakmıştır. Karşılık giderleri ise kur kaynaklı artış, 150mn TL’lik serbest Günlük Ort. İş. Hac.mn TL 1.948 karşılık (toplam serbest karşılık 4,8 milyar TL) ve çift (mn TL) 4Ç2020 1Ç2021 % Değ. taraflı karşılık muhasebesi kaynaklı olarak (karşılıklarda Aktifler 492.798 515.336 4,6% gider, diğer faaliyetlerde gelir; net kara etki yok) 2,8 Krediler 315.085 333.511 5,8% milyar TL’den 5,8 milyar TL’ye yükselirken, diğer faaliyet Mevduat 321.512 332.596 3,4% gelirleri de 2.217mn TL artarak 2.931mn TL’ye Özsermaye 62.082 63.737 2,7% ulaşmıştır. Aynı dönemde operasyonel giderler %2,9 Net Faiz Geliri 6.557 6.300 -3,9% oranında azalmış ve 2.768mn TL’ye gerilemiştir. Bağlı Net Kar / Zarar 1.111 2.529 127,7% ortaklıklardan elde edilen gelirler ise %75,5 oranında F/K PD/DD artmış ve 541mn TL’ye yükselerek karlılığı Garanti 4,26 0,48 desteklemiştir. BIST-Banka 3,83 0,38 BİST-100 10,07 1,19 Banka’nın özsermaye ve aktif karlılıkları, yüksek kar rakamıyla birlikte bir önceki çeyreğin oldukça üzerinde EMEA Bank** 14,82 0,87 gerçekleşmiştir. Banka’nın bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki Ortaklık Yapısı (İlk 2) Pay Oranı özsermaye karlılığı ve aktif karlılığı sırasıyla %16,1 ve Diğer 50,2% %2,0 olarak gerçekleşmiştir. Garanti Bankası’nın net faiz Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria 49,9% marjı ise yılın ilk çeyreğinde %5,22 olarak HİSSE PERFORMANSI gerçekleşmiştir. 1,2 12 1,1 11 Garanti Bankası’nın hedef hisse fiyatını, risksiz faiz 0,9 9 oranının %13'ten %15 seviyesine yükseltilmesi ile 0,8 8 tahminlerde yapmış olduğumuz değişiklikler ve piyasa 0,6 6 çarpanlarındaki güncellemelere bağlı olarak 0,5 BIST-100 Göreceli Getiri 5 GARAN(sağ eksen) 13,70TL’den 11,20TL’ye çekiyoruz. Garanti Bankası 0,3 3 29.04.2020 29.07.2020 28.10.2020 27.01.2021 28.04.2021 için daha önceki “AL” önerimizi ise koruyoruz. *29.04.2021 verileri kullanılmıştır. **Kaynak : Bloomberg Kredi Mevduat oranı %100,3 Çeyreksel bazda Garanti Bankası’nın toplam kredileri %5,8 oranında seviyesinde… büyüyerek 1Ç2021’de 333,5 milyar TL’ye çıkarken, tüketici kredileri %9,1 oranında artış kaydetmiştir. TL iş kredileri ve kredi kartları da sırasıyla %3 ve %8,2 oranında artış kaydetmiştir. YP krediler ise Dolar bazında %5 daralmıştır. Mevduatlar tarafında ise TL mevduatlar %1,6 oranında artarken, YP mevduatlar Dolar bazında %6 oranında düşüş göstermiştir. Toplam mevduatlar da kurdaki hareketle birlikte %3,4 oranında artmış ve 332,6 milyar TL olmuştur. Banka’nın kredi mevduat oranı ise 230baz puan artarak %100,3 olmuştur. 1Ç21-4Ç20 1Ç21-1Ç20 Özet Finansallar Solo (mn TL) 1Ç2020 2Ç2020 3Ç2020 4Ç2020 1Ç2021 Değ. Değ. Aktif 417.416 447.893 479.714 492.798 515.336 4,6% 23,5% Krediler 270.020 298.955 314.396 315.085 333.511 5,8% 23,5% Takipteki Krediler 17.589 17.860 18.742 14.383 14.924 3,8% -15,2% Menkul Kıymetler 59.637 68.270 72.068 73.208 73.000 -0,3% 22,4% Mevduat 266.698 276.062 308.814 321.512 332.596 3,4% 24,7% Özsermaye 54.874 58.097 60.441 62.082 63.737 2,7% 16,2% Net Kar 1.631 1.600 1.896 1.111 2.529 127,7% 55,0% Ortalama Özsermaye Karlılığı 12,0% 11,3% 12,8% 7,3% 16,1% 880bp 410bp Ortalama Aktif Karlılık 1,6% 1,5% 1,6% 0,9% 2,0% 110bp 40bp Net Faiz Marjı 5,88% 5,22% 5,65% 5,66% 5,22% -44bp -66bp Takipteki Krediler Oranı 6,51% 5,97% 5,96% 4,56% 4,47% -9bp -204bp Sermaye Yeterlilik Oranı 18,22% 19,15% 18,52% 18,54% 18,15% -39bp -7bp Kaynak: Garanti Bankası, Ziraat Yatırım Takipteki kredi oranı Garanti’nin takipteki krediler rasyosu, kredilerdeki artışın da etkisiyle 9 %4,47... baz puan düşerek %4,47’ye gerilemiştir. Banka’nın ikinci grup krediler oranı yaklaşık %18 seviyesindedir. Banka’nın sermaye yeterlilik oranı çeyreksel bazda 39 baz puanlık Sermaye yeterlilik düşüşle %18,15’e (BDDK’nın geçici düzenlemeleri hariç) gerilemiştir. Kur Oranı %18,15… ve kredi & piyasa riskinin negatif etkisi sırasıyla 49 ve 48 baz puan olmuştur. Operasyonel riskin negatif etkisi ise 40 baz puan olurken, temettü ödemesi 14 baz puanlık olumsuz etki yapmıştır. Net kar ise sermaye yeterlilik oranına 59 baz puan pozitif katkı sağlamıştır. Garanti Bankası ile ilgili tahminlerimizde güncellemelerde bulunuyoruz. 2020 yılı özkaynak karlılığı Buna göre Garanti Bankası için 2021 yılı özsermaye karlılığı beklentimizi, beklentimiz %13,1… özellikle vergi oranlarındaki artışın da etkisiyle, %13,7’den %13,1’e; 2022 yılı özsermaye karlılığı beklentimizi de %15,9’dan %15,8’e çekiyoruz Özet Finansallar 2021T 2022T 2020 (mn TL) Eski Yeni Eski Yeni Aktif 492.798 559.326 560.311 632.038 633.152 Krediler 315.085 347.224 349.837 400.613 403.610 Net Kar 6.238 8.957 8.496 11.653 11.490 Özsermaye Karlılığı 10,8% 13,7% 13,1% 15,9% 15,8% Aktif Karlılık 1,4% 1,7% 1,6% 2,0% 1,9% Kaynak: Ziraat Yatırım, Garanti Bankası T: Tahmin ZİRAAT YATIRIM/ARAŞTIRMA BÖLÜMÜ 2 Garanti Bankası’nın hedef hisse fiyatını, risksiz faiz oranının %13'ten Garanti Bankası için daha önceki “AL” önerimizi %15 seviyesine yükseltilmesi, tahminlerde yapmış olduğumuz koruyoruz… değişiklikler ve piyasa çarpanlarındaki güncellemelere bağlı olarak 13,70TL’den 11,20TL’ye çekerken, hedef piyasa değerini de 47.045mn TL olarak belirliyoruz. Garanti Bankası hisseleri güncellenmiş hedef hisse fiyatına göre %35,5 oranında iskontolu işlem görmektedir. Bu nedenle Garanti Bankası için daha önceki “AL” önerimizi koruyoruz. Özet Değerleme Tablosu Açıklama Kullanılan Yöntem (Mn TL) (%20,5 Sermaye Maliyeti, %4 Büyüme, %14,8 Gordon Büyüme Modeli 44.680 Sürdürülebilir Özsermaye Karlılığı) *Benzer Şirket Karşılaştırması (2021T PD/DD: 0,83x) 56.504 (%80 Gordon Büyüme Modeli + %20 Benzer Hedef Piyasa Değeri 47.045 Şirketler) Hedef Hisse Fiyatı 11,20 TL Garanti Hisse Fiyatı** 7,23 TL İskonto Oranı 35,5% * Bloomberg EMEA Banka Endeksi **29.04.2021 kapanışı itibariyle ZİRAAT YATIRIM/ARAŞTIRMA BÖLÜMÜ 3 Garanti Bankası Solo Bilanço 1Ç21-4Ç20 1Ç21-1Ç20 1Ç2020 2Ç2020 3Ç2020 4Ç2020 1Ç2021 (mn TL) Değ. Değ. Nakit ve Nakit Benzerleri 65.684 59.364 66.722 84.677 85.701 1,2% 30,5% Krediler 270.020 298.955 314.396 315.085 333.511 5,8% 23,5% TL 174.042 200.944 206.608 215.623 227.920 5,7% 31,0% YP 95.979 98.011 107.788 99.462 105.591 6,2% 10,0% Tüketici Kredileri 56.693 51.525 63.054 65.538 71.481 9,1% 26,1% Konut Kredileri 20.581 20.479 21.253 21.473 22.550 5,0% 9,6% Taşıt Kredileri 1.719 1.723 1.822 2.109 2.770 31,4% 61,1% İhtiyaç ve Diğer Krediler 32.021 34.947 37.266 39.091 43.090 10,2% 34,6% Kredili Mevduat Hesabı 2.153 2.049 2.469 2.633 3.057 16,1% 41,9% Toplam Kredi Kartları 25.916 27.178 30.746 32.995 35.702 8,2% 37,8% Diğer Krediler 187.412 220.252 220.597 216.552 226.328 4,5% 20,8% Takipteki Krediler 17.589 17.860 18.742 14.383 14.924 3,8% -15,2% Takibe Dönüşen Yeni Kredi 629 297 628 542 541 -0,3% -14,0% Aktiften Silinen 1 0 0 4.014 41 - - Tahsilat 1.045 357 760 692 690 -0,3% -34,0% Özel Karşılıklar 11.519 11.927 12.875 9.119 9.824 7,7% -14,7% Menkul Kıymetler 59.637 68.270 72.068 73.208 73.000 -0,3% 22,4% Toplam Aktifler 417.416 447.893 479.714 492.798 515.336 4,6% 23,5% Mevduat 266.698 276.062 308.814 321.512 332.596 3,4% 24,7% TL 119.490 129.377 130.735 143.602 145.924 1,6% 22,1% YP 147.208 146.684 178.080 177.909 186.672 4,9% 26,8% Alınan Krediler 27.908 26.398 29.824 25.438 27.011 6,2% -3,2% Para Piyasalarına Borçlar 820 14.711 912 72 8.904 - - İhraç Edilen Menkul Kıymetler 16.909 18.960 20.289 18.991 17.186 -9,5% 1,6% Özkaynaklar 54.874 58.097 60.441 62.082 63.737 2,7% 16,2% Ödenmiş Sermaye 4.200 4.200 4.200 4.200 4.200 - - Toplam Pasif 417.416 447.893 479.714 492.798 515.336 4,6% 23,5% Garanti Bankası Solo 1Ç21-4Ç20 1Ç21-1Ç20 1Ç2020 2Ç2020 3Ç2020 4Ç2020 1Ç2021 Gelir Tablosu (mn TL) Değ.
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