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Cities, Regions, and Rebels the Impact of Urbanization On Cities, Regions, and Rebels: The Impact of Urbanization on Conflict in the Developing World Item Type text; Electronic Dissertation Authors Cobb, Matthew Ryan Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction, presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 26/09/2021 06:13:32 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/641362 CITIES, REGIONS, AND REBELS THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON CONFLICT IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD By Matthew R. Cobb ___________________________ Copyright © Matthew R. Cobb 2020 SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC POLICY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2020 2 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Dissertation Committee, we certify that we have read the dissertation prepared by: Matthew Ryan Cobb, titled: Cities, Regions, and Rebels: The Impact of Urbanization on Conflict in the Developing World and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 24, 2020 Prof. Alex Braithwaite _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 24, 2020 Prof. Jessica Maves Braithwaite _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 24, 2020 Prof. Jeffrey Kucik _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 24, 2020 Prof. Javier Osorio _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 24, 2020 Prof. Paul Schuler Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate’s submission of the final copies of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. _________________________________________________________________ Date: April 27, 2020 Prof. Alex Braithwaite Dissertation Committee Chair School of Government & Public Policy 3 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my committee members for the guidance they have provided me as I have worked on this project. Alex Braithwaite, Jessica Maves Braithwaite, Jeffrey Kucik, Javier Osorio, and Paul Schuler have all been very patient with me and willing to provide advice, especially as I have constructed the theory behind this work. Their help has been critical not just to the completion of this project, but in many ways, my development as a scholar. During this process, I have benefitted from various travel grants from the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy as well as a fellowship made available by the Charles E., Jr. Starnes Fellowship Fund. I have presented versions of my dissertation chapters at academic conferences including meetings of the Peace Science Society, the American Political Science Association, and the Four Corners Conflict Network and am grateful for the feedback provided to me in the process. Specifically, comments from provided at these conferences from T. David Mason, Monica Duffy Toft, and Cameron Thies have been immensely helpful in shaping this research into its current form. As I have worked on this project, I have discussed this work with numerous colleagues, friends, and family members who have offered everything from moral support to methodological advice. Paul Bezerra, Joseph Cox, Sangmi Jeong, Logan Blair, Alejandro Beltran, Tiffany Chu, Minwoo Ahn, Michael McCammon, Mai Truong, Leah Pieper, Andrew Braden, and Matthew Spinks have all been particularly supportive in this regard. I would also like to thank my parents, Norman and Gail Cobb who have draft copies of every chapter of this dissertation. 4 Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures……………………………………………….5 Abstract…………………………………………………………………...8 Chapter 1: Introduction……………….……………………………...…..10 Chapter 2: Background & Literature Review……………………………17 Chapter 3: Theory of Urbanization & Conflict………………….…….…46 Chapter 4: Global Country-Level Analysis……………………….…...…69 Chapter 5: Global Sub-State Analysis…………………………….……...109 Chapter 6: Analysis of Conflict in India’s Red Corridor………….……...154 Chapter 7: Conclusions………………………..……………….…………200 Appendices..……………………………………………….…………........213 Bibliography…….……….………………………………………...……...217 5 List of Tables and Figures Chapter 1 Figure 1. Overview of Empirical Analysis of Dissertation Project….15 Chapter 2 Figure 1. World Urbanization Levels in 1950……………………….23 Figure 2. World Urbanization Levels in 1990……………………….24 Figure 3. World Urbanization Levels in 2018……………………….24 Figure 4. World Urbanization Levels by Region…………………….26 Figure 5. World Urbanization Rates by Region……………………...26 Chapter 4 Figure 1. Conflict Events by Fatality Threshold……………………..77 Table 1. ZINB Regression Results (Models 1-2)………….…………83 Table 2. ZINB Regression Results (Models 3-4)………….…………84 Table 3. ZINB Regression Results (Models 5-6)………….…………86 Figure 2. Pred. Conf. Event Counts by Number of Maj. Cities...……87 Table 4. ZINB Regression Results (Models 7-8)…………………….88 Table 5. ZINB Regression Results (Models 9-10)……………………90 Table 6. Logistic Regression Results (Models 11-14)………………..94 Table 7. Logistic Regression Results (Models 15-18)………………..95 Table 8. ZINB Regression Results (Models 19-20)…………………..97 Table 9. ZINB Regression Results (Models 21-22)…………………..99 Table 10. ZINB Regression Results (Models 23-24)…………………100 Table 11. Logistic Regression Results (Models 25-28)………………104 Figures 3-5. Predicted Risk of Gov’t Conf. onset by Δ GDP PC….....105 Chapter 5 Table 1. Logistic Regression Results (Models 1-4)…………………..124 Figures 1-2. Pred. Conflict Risk by Population Density………...……125 6 Table 2. Logistic Regression Results (Models 5-8)…………...………126 Table 3. Logistic Regression Results (Models 9-12)….………………125 Figures 3-5. Pred. Conflict Risk by Major City Count & Distance...…129 Table 4. Logistic Regression Results (Models 13-16)…………...……130 Table 5. Random Effects Logistic Reg. Results (Models 17-20)…..…132 Table 6. Logistic Regression Results (Models 21-24)……………..….134 Figures 9-11. Pred. Risk of Conf. by Pop Density & GDP PC……..…136 Table 7. Logistic Regression Results (Model 25-28)……………...…..139 Table 8. Logistic Regression Results (Models 29-32)…………………140 Table 9. Logistic Regression Results (Models 33-36)…………………141 Table 10. Logistic Regression Results (Models 37-40)………………..142 Table 11. Random Effects Logistic Reg. Results (Models 41-44)…….143 Table 12. Logistic Regression Results (Models 45-48)………………..144 Table 13. ZINB Regression Results (Models 49-50)…………………..146 Table 14. ZINB Regression Results (Models 51-52)…………………..148 Table 15. ZINB Regression Results (Models 53-54)…………………..149 Chapter 6 Figure 1. The States of India’s “Red Corridor”………………………...158 Figure 2. Annual Fatalities in Naxalite Conflict………………………..160 Figure 3. Indian States Involved in Operation Green Hunt…………….162 Table 1. Logistic Regression Results (Models 1A-2B)………...………173 Table 2. Logistic Regression Results (Models 3A-4B)……...…………175 Figures 4-5. Pred. Margins for Models 3A & 4A………………………176 Table 3. Logistic Regression Results (Models 5A-5B)………..….……179 Figures 6-7. Pred. Margins for Models 5A & 5B………………………180 Table 4. Logistic Regression Results (Models 6A-7B)……….………..181 Table 5. Logistic Regression Results (Models 8-11)………….………..183 Table 6. ZINB Regression Results (Models 14-15)…………….………185 7 Figure 8. Pred. Margins for Model 12…………………………………186 Table 7. ZINB Regression Results (14-15)……………………………190 Table 8. Random Effects Regression Results (Models 16-19)……...…192 Table 9. Random Effects Regression Results (Models 20-23)………...193 Table 10. Logistic Regression Results (Models 24-26)…………….….195 Figures 9-10. Pred. Margins for Models 24 & 25………………….…..196 Appendices Appendix A. Developing Countries Included in Analysis……………..213 Appendix B. Indian Districts Included in Analysis (States A-J)……….214 Appendix C. Indian Districts Included in Analysis (States M-O)……...215 Appendix D. Indian Districts Included in Analysis (States U-W)……...216 8 Abstract The world's population is quickly urbanizing, a trend largely driven by the growth of cities in the Global South. In my dissertation, I analyze the consequences of this demographic phenomenon for civil conflict, another phenomenon associated with developing countries. In this research, I present a global study at the country level, showing that contrary to many people's concerns, urbanization does not usually lead to higher levels of urban-based civil conflict and may alleviate conflict violence in rural areas. Using geospatial data on conflict and demographics, I analyze the urbanization- conflict relationship at the subnational level, showing how these trends impact provincial and local administrative units. This includes a chapter specifically focused on local-level impacts of urbanization on India’s Naxalite insurgency, a long-running armed conflict affecting a wide swathe of the country’s territory. Through my analysis, I find that contrary to the fears of many scholars and policymakers, urbanization does not normally create a risk of armed conflict communities in the developing world. Even when an area is experiencing economic decline, most
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