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Technical Report Section 4: Water Demands Projections An important element in utility Master Planning is a planning level assessment of future water demands and supply requirements. While the methods utilized to perform local demand projections vary, there are a few criteria that are commonly used to support this effort. Land use and population are two integral elements which define future planning efforts. The Department has historically used a change in land use approach for previous and ongoing forecasting activities. This Section describes in detail the methodology used for population and water demand projections for the Department’s service area. A discussion of the data sources used for future planning efforts and the methodology used for water demand projections for the Master Plan (MP) are described herein, followed by sub-sections on population projections. 4.1 Data Sources In addition to the land use information described in the earlier Sections, the following data sources were used as part of the demand projection calculations. 4.1.1 Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Data SCAG maintains and is responsible for the development of demographic projections plus the integrated land use, housing, employment, transportation programs, etc. for cities in Southern California. It maintains two sets of transportation analysis zones (TAZ) data for the Regional Transportation Plan (2012-2035) along with socioeconomic data for the region. The more aggregate level is represented by 4,109 zones (Tier 1) across the SCAG region. This dataset was used for the analysis of this Master Plan project. The entire region is divided into TAZ zones and spatial data relating to population, housing, employment, etc. is maintained within the dataset along with future projections for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2035. 4.1.2 State of California Department of Finance - Census Data Other digital and spatial datasets which maintain records for population, demographics, economic datasets, trend charts, census stats, housing elements, vacant unit stats, etc. are developed by the US Census Bureau. Data for California is maintained by the California Department of Finance. The Department has used this dataset in several planning studies over the years, and is using this data for estimating population in the WFMP. 4.1.3 SBMWD’s Water Billing (HTE) Data Water demands served by SBMWD are primarily residential, with commercial, industrial, landscape irrigation and others. As of 2012, SBMWD maintains approximately 44,010 water meters with about 37,500 acre-feet of potable water use annually. The Department’s billing data classifies its meters into the following categories: residential, commercial, landscape irrigation, fire protection, and other usage. More than 90 percent of the accounts are classified as residential, while the remaining billing classifications represent less than 10 percent of accounts. SBMWD – Water Facilities Master Plan Page 4-1 4.1.4 Previous Planning Studies Other planning studies referred to for background information, include the City’s 2005 Urban Water Management Plan, City’s 2010 Urban Water Management Plan, Water Facilities Master Plan 2007, Regional Urban Water Management Plan 2013, City of San Bernardino General Plan 2005, Recycled Water Master Plan 2010, Water Supply Assessment Study 2013, etc. 4.2 Potable Water Demand Projections The potable water demand projections evaluations are described in this sub-section. These are calculated based on the following key components described in detail below: • Service Area Developments • Water Duty Factors (WDFs) 4.2.1 Service Area Developments To estimate the future water demands, the developments anticipated within the Department’s boundaries have been categorized into the various groups described below. 4.2.1.1 Approved Specific Plan Developments Several specific plan developments are proposed throughout the Department service area as part of the City of San Bernardino’s General Plan. For this Master Plan effort, these were reviewed on a case by case basis to determine the methodology for estimating future demands. Table 4-1 presents the status of each one of the specific plans included in the General Plan and the future demand approach used for demand projections as suggested by the Department. 4.2.1.2 Area Plan Developments Area plans are distinct components of general plans that address smaller geographical areas. Basically, an area plan refines the policies of the general plan as they apply to smaller geographic areas but have the same authority as general plans. The General Plan contains the Verdemont Heights Area Plan, which is described below. The Verdemont Heights Area Plan presents the general plan level development and use guidance for the 3,409 acres generally located in the northwestern corner of the City. Verdemont Heights is a residential community located in the northwestern most corner of the City, nestled in the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains and overlooking the Cajon Creek Wash and the Glen Helen Regional Park. Verdemont Heights is bordered on the north by the San Bernardino National Forest, on the southwest by Kendall Drive, Interstate 215, and the Cajon Creek, and on the southeast by the Devil’s Canyon Flood Control Basins and the East Branch of the California Aqueduct. Immediately southeast of these flood control basins is the California State University at San Bernardino. Verdemont Heights encompasses a gently north- south sloping hill at the base of the San Bernardino Mountains. Several seasonal creeks flow out of the mountains and can carry significant volumes of water during rain events and seasonal spring snow melt conditions. The most significant is Cable Creek, which is fed by the Meyers Canyon and Meecham Canyon creeks. SBMWD – Water Facilities Master Plan Page 4-2 Table 4-1: City of San Bernardino Specific Plans Item No. Specific Plan Name Project Status SBMWD WFMP Action Undeveloped areas to be considered as general Arrowhead Springs Project has not been built. Unknown plans for future 1 development and water duty factors applied appropriately Specific Plan development. considering their land use category. Developed areas accounted for in the 2014 SB-WFMP CALMAT (A.K.A. Some development has occurred including FedEx based on billing information data. Undeveloped areas to be 2 Cajon Creek Specific facilities and the recent Hillwood development along considered as general development and water duty factors Plan) Cajon Blvd. applied appropriately considering their land use category. Undeveloped areas to be considered as general Highland Hills Specific 3 Information not available for this project. development and water duty factors applied appropriately Plan considering their land use category. Paradise Hills Specific Future development shall be considered in the 2014 SB- Project has not been built. Potential development in the 4 Plan (A.K.A. WFMP. More detailed information provided in the future. University Hills) University Hills Conceptual Water Facilities Study. Paseo Las Placitas Undeveloped areas to be considered as general Specific Plan (A.K.A. 5 Information not available for this project. development and water duty factors applied appropriately Mt. Vernon Corridor considering their land use category. Specific Plan) Developed areas are already being accounted for in the San Bernardino Some development has occurred including Stater 2014 SB-WFMP based on billing information data. 6 International Trade Brothers and Amazon facilities, among others. IVDA Undeveloped areas shall be considered as general Center Specific Plan General Aviation project is currently under construction. development with the exception of the IVDA General Aviation development. Developed areas are already being accounted for in the University District covers a large area of about 6,300 2014 SB-WFMP based on billing information data. University District acres. Since the 2005 General Plan, some areas have 7 Undeveloped areas to be considered as general Specific Plan been developed with mostly commercial and industrial development and water duty factors applied appropriately development. considering their land use category. Undeveloped areas to be considered as general University Business 8 Information not available for this project. development and water duty factors applied appropriately Park Specific Plan considering their land use category. Source: SBMWD Staff’s Input on City of San Bernardino’s Specific Plans included in 2005 General Plan SBMWD - Water Facilities Master Plan Page 4-3 As shown in Figure 4-1 (General Plan Figure LU-6), the General Plan Land Use plan identifies three distinct subareas within Verdemont Heights that are connected by an integrated signage and landscaping program. The first subarea is Verdemont Estates, which is located in the northwestern portion of the area, west of Little League Drive. The Residential Estate land use designation characterizes this subarea. The second subarea is the Verdemont Hills, which is a collection of suburban subdivisions located adjacent to I-215 and extending to the foothills east of Little League Drive. The Residential Low and Residential Suburban land use designations characterize this subarea. This is also the subarea that contains the Little League baseball fields and the Palm Avenue Elementary School. The northern portion of Verdemont Hills is subject to the slope density limits and development standards of the Hillside Management Overlay District. The third subarea is Verdemont Plaza, which is located
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