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USSEC Worldwide Soy Food Markets Update August, 2020

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USSEC Worldwide Soy Food Markets Update August, 2020 USSEC Worldwide Soy Food Markets Update August, 2020 Japan Soy Food Market Update 2020 USSEC Japan Target Areas SOY CRUSH 2.5 MMT SOY FOOD 1.0 MMT JAPAN SOYBEANSOYBEAN MEALMEAL 3.33.3 MMTMMT FOOD JAPAN IS THE 5th Top Importer U.S. EXPORTS MARKETING YEAR 19/20 AS OF WEEK ENDING JULY 16, 2020 Korea Vietnam 2% Pakistan 2% ROW 3% 8% Thailand 3% Bangladesh 4% China Taiwan 34% 4% Indonesia 5% Japan 5% European Union Egypt 11% 9% Mexico 10% FOOD Japan Soy Demand % 3.6 FOOD CRUSH MMT FOOD Source: USDA 2019 Japan Soy Importing Origins USA Brazil Canada China 1% 11% 16% 3.4 MMT % FOOD Source: Industry Date 2020 Japan Food Bean Imports Origins OTHER 0.3% Import from US (1000 MT) CHINA 3% 450 400 350 300 250 42% 55% 200 CANADA 150 USA 100 50 0 2017 2018 2019 FOOD Source: 2019/2020 Industry Data U.S. IP Food Bean Variety Shipments to Japan Container v.s. Bulk Vessel Ratio 1995-2019 11% : 89% 44% : 56 % 75% : 25% 99% : 1% 100% 90% GE Acreage 80% 70% Vessel Container Shipment Container 60% increased 46% 130,000 MT, 50% between 2013-2019 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FOOD Source: 2020 Industry Data & USDA-NASS Japan Food Bean Market Share Is Recovering US vs CANADA 2002-2019 U.S. CANADA GE Acreage 100% 90% U.S. Market 80% Share recovered between 70% 12 % 2012-2019 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FOOD Source: 2020 Industry Data and USDA-NASS Japan Soy Food Demand & Share SOY MILK 7% Growing Segment SOY FLOUR 6% FROZEN TOFU 2% SOY SAUCE 3% MISO TOFU * whole soy only, excluding soy 13% 1 52% sauce made from soy meal NATTO MMT 17% FOOD Source: 2019/2020 Industry Data JAPAN FOOD BEAN IMPORTS ORIGINS TOFU NATTO MISO 1% 7% 22% 23% 10% 6% 37% 41 70 30% 53 FOOD Source: 2019/2020 Industry Data Japan Natto Market Size (Million USD) 2,503 ・JAPAN NATTO DEMAND 2,500 2,497 WILL CONTINUE TO 2,400 GROW AND IS EXPECTED 2,313 TO REACH RECORD HIGH 2,300 IN 2020: 2,184 (GROWTH IN 2020 VS 2019) 2,200 20` FEB 113.9 % 2,100 2,028 20` MAR 116.8 % 2,000 1,977 20` APR 123.2 % 20’ MAY 119.4 % 1,900 1,870 1,860 1,850 1,800 1,799 1,800 ・48% GROWTH 1,730 1,691 BETWEEN 2013-2019 1,700 1,600 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20* Source: 2020 General Affairs Statistics Bureau + Japan Natto Cooperative FOOD Society Federation Japan Soymilk Production (1,000 KL) ・JAPAN SOYMILK DEMAND 450 IN 2019 INCREASED 13% COMPARED WITH 2018 400 350 ・ IT WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND IS EXPECTED TO 300 REACH RECORD HIGH IN 250 2020 200 ・ 2020 DEMAND V.S. 2019 150 20` JAN-MAR 7 ％ ↑ 100 ・ 657% GROWTH 50 BETWEEN 2000-2019 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FOOD Source: 2018 Japan Soymilk Association Japan Soy Protein Production Volume (2018 V.S. 2019) ・ JAPAN SOY PROTEIN DEMAND INCREASED 5.9% (MT) BETWEEN 2018 AND 2019 41500 REACHED RECORD HIGH 41000 ・ VARIOUS FOOD & 40500 BEVERAGE COMPANIES Import LAUNCHED NEW PRODUCTS volume 40000 USING SOY PROTEIN TO MEET 28,100 39500 INCREASING DEMAND FOR PLANT-BASED FOODS 39000 40,949 ・ TOP SOY PROTEIN MAKER 38500 IN JAPAN IS BUILDING A NEW 38000 38,704 PLANT IN CHIBA AIMING TO EXPAND SUPPLY IN TOKYO 37500 METROPOLITAN AREA AND 2018 2019 OTHERS FOOD Source: 2019 Japan Vegetable Protein Food Association Japan Soyfood Summary • Japan’s total Food Bean imports increased 42,000 MT, 5.8% UP in 2019 compared with 2018 • Japan’s U.S. IP Food Bean imports in 2019 increased 52,000 MT, 14% UP compared with 2018, while U.S. took share from all sources Canada, China and S-America! U.S. share improved 5 % from 2018 • Traditional “IOM Soybeans” imports via bulk vessel in 2019 completely shifted to single variety container imports between 1995-2020 ( bulk vessel change 89% ➡ 1%) • Plant Based boom (mostly SOY) continue and 3 major convenience stores Seven-Eleven, Lawson, and Family Mart have launched new SOY MEAT products between May-July. Soy Protein imports and production will continue to grow • Food Service segments such as School Lunch program, restaurant and hotels have been in decline due to COVID-19, however, overall soy foods consumption have been increasing because of increase of home cooking INDUSTRY VOICE • There is tendency that major tofu manufacturers have been shifting from U.S. black-hilum to Canadian clear-hilum varieties. The reasons are: 1) To avoid black-color hilum to be comingled with their tofu and relevant products, 2) Canadian white hilum variety has higher protein content & higher production yield than that of U.S. black hilum variety. Therefore tofu processors want to source from Canada where they perceive that U.S. white hilum high protein variety is more expensive than that of Canada, and white hilum with mid-price range variety which make beneficial for mid-to- larger scale tofu manufacturers to process tofu are not available in U.S. • Even if importers have planted Canadian higher protein variety in U.S., the protein have not been improved. They expect the U.S. white hilum higher protein variety to be same price as Canadian white hilum higher protein variety, however, this longstanding challenges still continue. If this challenges will be cleared, we can expect further increase of U.S. market share FOOD Korea Soy Food Market Update 2019 Korea Soy consumption Import 92% 1.37MMT Production 8% FOOD (Source: Korea International Trade Association) 2019 ORIGIN OF IMPORTED SOYBEANS U.S. 88% U.S. 75% CRUSHING FOOD BEAN SOYBEAN 980TMT 284TMT China 15% Canada 7% Brazil 12% Others 3% FOOD (Source: Korea International Trade Association) 2020 ORIGIN OF IMPORTED Food SOYBEANS (JAN-JUN, 2020) U.S. 80% FOOD SOYBEAN 188TMT China 5% Canada 3% Russia 2% FOOD (Source: Korea International Trade Association) HISTORICAL FOOD BEAN IMPORTS BY COUNTRY 2019 75% 15% 7% 2018 69% 20% 5% 5% U.S. 2017 78% 15% 6% China Canada 79% 12% 9% 2016 Russia 2015 85% 8% 5% 2014 74% 23% 2% 2013 74% 18% 6% 2012 58% 37% 2% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 (Unit: MT) FOOD (Source: Korea International Trade Association) Tariff rate for FOOD BEAN import 5% within TRQ 70+% of food bean (U.S. No.1 Non-GM) imported by aT, a state-run trading company 487% outside TRQ % under FTA 0 FTA TRQ allocated to 11 soy food associations (tofu, soy sauce & paste, soy milk, bean sprouts, etc.) FOOD FTA TRQ for IP food Bean (Unit: MT) No Cap 45,000 40,118 38,949 40,000 37,815 36,714 35,644 34,606 33,598 35,000 32,619 31,669 29,852 30,747 28,983 28,139 30,000 27,319 26,523 25,750 25,000 25,000 Capped 20,000 20,000 17,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 1,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Korea-U.S. FTA Korea-China FTA Korea-Canada FTA Korea-Australia FTA FOOD (Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy) 2019 SOY FOOD MARKET SEGMENT Other 1% Bean sprouts 11% Soy milk 15% Tofu Soy sauce 51% & paste 22% FOOD (Source: aT) RECENT TRENDS Korea HMR Market Size • B2C sales increase of tofu, soy sauce & paste (Unit: US$ Trillion) • Rise in demand for HMR & Meal Kits 8.5 • Growing interest in Plant Based Meats 4.3 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 FOOD (Source: Samsung Securities) Taiwan Soy Foods Market Briefing Julian Lin, Taiwan Market Director / Greater China Region U.S. Soybean Export Council A3t48345p • General Market Situation Agenda US Soybeans to Taiwan Taiwan Soy Food Market • Marketing Activities in Taiwan SUSS Logo in Taiwan General Market Situation • Greater China Region • GDP Growth 2.37% (2020 Est. ) • GDP Per Capita – USD 27,437 (2020 Est.) • Large, Stable & Mature Market: – 23.6 Million Population but Low Population Growth (0.88% Est.) – High Per Capita Consumption of soybean (114Kg) • Long-time Loyal Customers of U.S. Soybeans • Brazilian & Canadian Competition • Containerized Shipment Opportunities Largest Export Markets for U.S. Soybeans (2018/19) 1000 MT China 13,323.04 Mexico 5,180.57 Egypt 2,660.80 Indonesia 2,571.95 Netherlands 2,457.73 Japan 2,356.20 Spain 1,846.83 Taiwan 1,828.17 Thailand 1,075.10 8th Pakistan 1,075.10 Vietnam 793.284 Soybean Imports to Taiwan 3,000,000 MT 55% 53% 49% 50% 50% 2,500,000 42% 45% 2,000,000 39% 40% 40% 1,500,000 30% 35% 1,000,000 30% 500,000 25% - 20% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Panamax Container Percentage Container % 2019 Taiwan Imported Soy Origins Other, 0% Brazil, 29% Canada, USA, 2% 69% 2019 – 2.68 MMT Taiwan Soybean Food Market Imported Soybeans 2.67 million MT (2019) Market Share : U.S. 69% ; Brazil 29% 11 kg per capita Soybeans for Food Soybeans for Feed Food sector 240,000 MT (est.) 2.28 million MT U.S.
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