ISSN 2543-9839 qr. 2. 2019 no. 9

THE WARSAW INSTITUTE REVIEW no. 9. 2019 www.warsawinstitute.review Across many critical areas - from defense and diplomacy, to energy and economics - the alliance between the United States and Poland is reaching extraordinary new heights in 2019. Our longstanding partnership demonstrates the enormous possibilities for the world when two strong and independent nations unite in common purpose and in common cause - Donald Trump, President of the United States of America

Washington, June 13, 2019

There will be more American troops in Poland. This is going to be an enhanced cooperation. It's going to be an enduring presence, which hopefully will increase gradually in terms of the number of troops, but also in terms of infrastructure which is very important - Andrzej Duda, President of the Republic of Poland Editorial

Dear Readers,

he ninth issue of the quarterly opens with an article about the infrastructure project of strategic imperative for Poland – the construction of the Solidarity Transport Hub Central Airport. In the piece by the TSecretary of State and Government Plenipotentiary for the Central Communication Port, Minister Mikołaj Wild maintains that the project is a development impulse for Poland and Central Eastern Europe. The author emphasizes the construction of the port would enable an increase in passenger and cargo potential and would situate Poland on the leading passenger and freight routes, which has considerable importance for economic development and security of the region.

In another part of the issue, the predicaments faced by the European Union are examined considering its internal challenges, such as a new composition of the European Parliament and European Commission, and external challenges – including the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. This prompts a broader analysis of the situation in the European Union and the external relations of the Community. Jan Rokita and Prof. Mirosław Lenart write about the situation in Italy and its foreign policy relations. In turn, Prof. Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse analyzes EU relations with world powers – namely the United States and the People's Republic of China. Furthermore, in the pages of the Visegrad reports, Grzegorz Kuczyński discusses the recent elections in Ukraine and their consequences for Europe and the region, while Dr. Piotr Bajda focuses on analyzing the foreign policy situations of Visegrad capitals.

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I would like to especially recommend the article by the leader of the American Polonia, Daniel Pogorzelski, who writes about The Chicago, the “Polish” city in the United States. The author Warsaw describes the city's history and Polish themes and symbols Institute related to its development and culture. He points to numerous Review connections that link Poland and the United States through Chicago. Moreover, he underlines that it is the Polish symbols © Copyright 2019 that give the city such a unique atmosphere, and Chicago itself The Warsaw Institute Review is a city intertwined with the history of Poland and the United Warsaw, Poland States.

Editor-in-Chief I wish you all an enjoyable read, Izabela Wojtyczka [email protected] Izabela Wojtyczka Editorial Assistant Editor-in-Chief Berenika Grabowska [email protected] The Warsaw Institute Review Translations Aleksandra Tomaszewska Alexander Wielgos Proofreading Bartłomiej Bagniewski Łukasz Biernacki Cover and Layout Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela DTP and Printing www.sindruk.pl

Public purpose co-financed by the Co-financed by the Minister of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Culture and National Heritage of Poland in the competition “Cooperation from the Promotion of Culture in the Field of Public Diplomacy 2019”. Fund.

Publisher The Warsaw Institute Review Sp. z o.o. Świętokrzyska 18/410, 00-052 Warsaw, Poland Ministry of Foreign Aff airs www.warsawinstitute.review Republic of Poland [email protected]

The opinions given and the positions Partners: Partner of Visegrad Report: held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and Ministry of Culture and National www.warsawinstitute.org Heritage of the Republic of Poland. ISSN 2543-9839

www.warsaw.institute

4 The Warsaw Institute Review Contents

Vi6segrad Report United51 States H85ISTORY Mikołaj Wild: Daniel Pogorzelski: Joanna Żelazko: Solidarity Transport Hub: Chicago: America’s Bridge The Katyn Massacre - the Way Poland’s Much Needed to Poland to the Truth and Economically Viable Infrastructure Investment

Visegrad Report Geopolitics Mikołaj Wild Robert Rajczyk Solidarity Transport Hub: Poland’s Taiwan - the Only Chinese Democracy Much Needed and Economically 69 6 Viable Infrastructure Investment Eastern Report European Union Mateusz Kubiak Jan Rokita 78 Armenia - Pashinyan’s First Year Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of History a “Roman form” 13 Joanna Żelazko European Union The Katyn Massacre - the Way to the Mirosław Lenart Truth Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden 85 Horseshoes in Rome? 22 Visegrad Report European Union Grzegorz Kuczyński Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse Apparent Revolution – Presidential The European Union in Relation 34 to World Powers 96 Elections in Ukraine

European Union Visegrad Report Krzysztof Rak

44 Franco-German Strategic Dissonance Piotr Bajda New Challenges in Central European United States Daniel Pogorzelski 109 Foreign Policy 51 Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland Visegrad Report Geopolitics Juraj Krupa Witold Repetowicz A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: 58 Enemies, Conflicts 114 Years of Missed Opportunities

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Solidarity Transport Hub. Poland’s Much Needed and Economically Viable Infrastructure Investment Mikołaj Wild Central Eastern Europe is a region that offers promise of tremendous growth in air traffic. Economic forecasts indicate a high profitability of a new airport to be located between Warsaw and Łódź. Thoughtfully governed states tend to invest into large scale airport infrastructure. It is high time for Poland to join their ranks.

wo parallel runways, each Transport Hub Poland (STH), to be 4000 meters in length, will located 37 kilometers from Warsaw, will allow for serving 45 million be presented to airline executives from passengers per year, with and all around the world in July this year. Ttwo further runways to be constructed in later stages, along with taxiways, One cannot design a well-thought-out aprons, terminals: passengers, cargo, airport without first consulting those who general aviation, and a railway station will be its primary users – the airlines. integrated with the passenger terminal. As such, the Airport Consultative The initial concept of the Solidarity Committee (ACC) has been established

6 The Warsaw Institute Review Solidarity Transport Hub. Poland’s Much Needed...

© Darek Delmanowicz (PAP) Jasionka Airport, April 30, 2018. Boeing 787 Dreamliner. by the International Air Transport a 15% year to year increase, and a fivefold Association (IATA), in cooperation increase compared to fifteen years ago (8.8 with STH. The consultative committee million in 2004). Projected figures for 2019 is composed of representatives of all the indicate a further increase of over 10% as airlines that are currently operating out of compared with 2018, which means that Chopin Airport, as well as those airlines Polish airports will serve over 50 million that are not currently associated with people this year. Chopin but are prospective stakeholders for Solidarity Transport Hub Poland. The goal of ACC is to develop and consult Polish airports served the concept behind STH in cooperation with the airlines, in order to better more than 46 million understand their needs, and if necessary, adjust the project to better cater to their passengers last year, a expectations. 15% year to year increase, Why is Solidarity Airport needed? and a fivefold increase Before all else, rationale for the investment compared to fifteen years is based upon a real and actual market demand. Polish airports served more than ago (8.8 million in 2004). 46 million passengers last year,

2/2019 7 Visegrad Report © Grzegorz Michałowski (PAP) Łódź, March 23, 2019. Multimodal building of the Łódź Fabryczna railway station.

But there is more. In Poland the mobility airport has no space to expand further, coefficient (number of air travels per which is due to both environmental and capita) is just above 1, while in Western infrastructural constraints, related to European countries amounts to anywhere continuous urban sprawl around the between 2 and 4. Therefore, there is a airport, and therefore noise reduction massive potential for improvement. requirements, as well as roads traversing Central and Eastern Europe experiences a in direct vicinity of the airport, all of consistent increase in air travel per capita which preclude construction of additional – which is a product of continuous efforts runways. aimed at closing the civilizational and economic gap resulting from the years of Polish national carrier, LOT Polish communism. Airlines, is also the main operator flying out of Chopin Airport with 70% of its Moreover, Chopin Airport – the largest flights arriving and departing from this airport in Poland – with its 40% share largest Polish airport. The Polish carrier of the total passenger traffic in Poland, is also the largest airline in the CEE is nearing its maximum capacity. The region. As of today, between the Baltic, seasonal daily limit of operations has Adriatic and Black seas, inhabited by a been reached already and carriers total of over 180 million people, there looking to expand are faced with severe are no – other than Chopin Airport and limitations of airport slots available LOT – airport-airline tandems ready (landing and take-off permits). The to develop an airport hub. Importantly, unfortunate reality is that Chopin LOT is the last airline based in former

8 The Warsaw Institute Review Solidarity Transport Hub. Poland’s Much Needed... communist states that has not gone a frequently used trade route provides bankrupt, has not been acquired by immeasurable benefits, which can be a third party – but instead is noting tapped into by a well-designed transport consistent growth, bringing in revenue hub. streams to the national treasury. E&Y led MEO Principle Tests that Chopin Airport is recording consistent have focused on the profitability of growth rates of well over 10% annually. the airport component indicate that According to Polityka Insight, even if all STH’s return on investment is likely to of the currently ongoing investments at exceed 10%. Furthermore, according to the Chopin Airport were to be finalized, Baker McKenzie and Polityka Insight and Modlin and Radom airports analysts, STH Poland could help garner enlarged, these three airports in Central an additional 4–7 GDP percentage Poland will reach their maximum points for the Polish economy. Experts capacity anytime between 2022 and claims, that by virtue of its geographic 2025. Here, stakes are high; overcrowded location, Poland could potentially absorb Chopin airport and an inability to satisfy a significant percentage of air traffic market demands could negatively affect between Europe, North America and Poland’s prospect of economic growth. Asia. In addition to that, the investment is likely to create additional 150 thousand 4.3 billion people travelled on commercial new workplaces in and around STH and airliners in 2018 globally. As per IATA, related industries. this number will increase to 4.6 billion According to the aforementioned report, passengers this year and double within aviation is one of the most productive the next 20 years, thus exceeding 8 sectors of the Polish economy. Eurostat billion. According to Eurocontrol data indicate, that there are over 1000 forecasts, because of insufficient capacity commercial entities currently involved of the currently existing airports as well in aviation market in Poland. Those as limited airspace in 2040 Europe’s companies employ a total of over 40.000 potential 160 million passengers will people; and taken together are responsible not be able to engage in air travel. Vice for creating a net value of over PLN Chairman of IATA Rafael Schvartzman 7.1 billion. In other words, a single has stated that Europe needs new airport employee contributes six times more to infrastructure, and Solidarity Transport the economy as compared to the national Hub is one of the solutions to the average. problem. Good financial results of LOT, which as a Hub airport and its impact on national carrier has recorded from 2015 the economy to 2018 a more than twofold increase Third, the airport component is bound to of passengers (from 4 to 9 million), yield profit. Multiple examples point to increased number of connections from cargo hubs being a major stimulus for the 40 to 110 and doubled its revenue (from economy. Air transport, both passenger PLN 3 billion to PLN 6 billion), recording and cargo – is concentrated in large a significant profit. Without the new hubs, with cities and states hosting them airport however, LOT will not be able to benefiting greatly in economic, social and retain this dynamic. political terms. The relationship is fairly straight forward: connectivity is a key to According to Baker McKenzie, the stretch commercial success; being located along of land from Scandinavia, through

2/2019 9 Visegrad Report

e railway junction in the Central Communication Port L   R  K V G  K  S  S  T K  G  K G
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e map presents an overview of the railway junction in the Central Communication Port. It consists of ten railway "spokes" that will be located at an interchange hub in Baranów and Warsaw. e railway network will connect Polish cities (from 10 regions) with the airport in Baranów. Baranów is between Płock and Warsaw, not indicated on the map.

*Lesser Poland-Silesian Junction

Poland to Greece remains outside of The more affluent the “the sphere of influence” of any and all major European airlines. Currently, those societies of Central and companies consider the region to be a source of passengers that are transferred Eastern Europe become, to Western European, Russian, Turkish, or Middle Eastern hub airports, and the more they will be who then switch to long distance flights. Consequently, 90% of long-distance willing to use airplanes as flights to and from CEE region occurs in hub airports far removed from the region, means of transportation. stripping Central and Eastern Europe from revenue streams.

10 The Warsaw Institute Review Solidarity Transport Hub. Poland’s Much Needed...

Why a hub airport and a ‘hub and spoke model’? The essence of a hub and spoke 1.6 thousand kilometers model is for a flagship airline to develop connections to as many destinations of new railways will as possible from the airport that is simultaneously a base of operations for be built alongside the the airline. Looking at the connection network, flights converge on the central transport hub. airport very much like wheel spokes are. By utilizing short and mid haul flights and Łódź. This new line will allow for a the carrier transfers passengers to the 15-minute Warsaw-STH transit time, and hub airport, from which the passengers 25-minute STH-Łódź transit time. can next conveniently transfer to either The railway component of Solidarity short, mid and long-haul flights (with the Transport Hub will assume a “spider’s lattermost option taking place on wide web” shape, with ten new lines radiating body aircraft characterized by greater from STH. As a result, practically profit margins). every major city in Poland will enjoy a direct connection to STH, with transit We know for a fact that passengers will be times of under 2.5 hours. In addition interested in flying to and out of Warsaw. to that, regions bordering Czechia, Even today, half of LOT passengers use Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania Chopin airport as a hub – in that they and Kaliningrad Oblast will too gain a are flying neither to nor from Warsaw, convenient and fast access to STH. but simply transfer there to another flight. Furthermore, the more affluent the Implementing the network-based railway societies of Central and Eastern Europe system is an element of paramount become, the more they will be willing to importance for the overall success use airplanes as means of transportation. of the project. This is because at the There is a scientifically proven correlation present time, there are over 100 cities between an increase in GDP per capita in Poland with a population of over and increase in air travel, which surely 10.000 inhabitants, that do not have a will translate to demand from passengers. direct access to the railway network. For comparison sake: there is one such Railway component – an city in Czechia, eight in Slovakia, six in integral part of STH Hungary, and five in Austria. Painful Corresponding with airport development, as it may be this sad state of affairs is a railway infrastructure investments will historical result of partitions of Poland, too form a backbone of STH project. a fact that becomes abundantly clear is According to a government schedule and one looks at railway connection density an agreement between STH and PKP PLK in eastern Poland, and the fact that a (Polish Railway Lines Authority), around number of cities are missing a direct rail 1.6 thousand kilometers of new railways connection with Warsaw. This is because will be built alongside the transport under partitions some cities were located hub. Current plans assume that with in different states, which did not have an completion of the so-called zero stage a incentive to increase connectivity with 140 kilometer stretch of high-speed rail Warsaw and sought to develop railway will be built, effectively creating a new connections to their own respective HSR connection between Warsaw, STH capitals.

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STH is a unique development opportunity for Poland, which once materialized will Successful allow our country to leap forward in implementation of social, economic and sophistication terms. As noted by PwC, projects that Solidarity Transport Hub involve building or expanding airport infrastructure with a capacity exceeding Poland program will 40 million passengers per annum are already underway in other European spur development and states, including Turkey, Russia and Germany. Construction of airports growth in Poland, as well in Moscow and Istanbul goes hand in hand with a further expansion of as Central and Eastern their respective national airlines, that extensively utilize above mentioned hub Europe. airports to transfer passengers – a strategy that will likely be a success factor for STH. Planned investments in rail Solidarity Airport similarly to Moscow infrastructure will help Poland develop and Munich airports that are currently a more sustainable transport system. being expanded, will aim to satisfy For years road transport has been the incessantly increasing demand for prioritized in Poland. Unquestionably, interchange traffic. the extend and pace of modernization of road networks is one of the staples The decision to create a new hub airport of Poland’s economic and social in central Poland is long overdue. The development. Regrettably, this progress idea was first conceived in the 70’s, while is not matched by railway infrastructure. scores of studies, analyses and reports that While there were over 4000 kilometers documented the need for such investment of new highways built since 1989, mere have been published since early 2000’s, 50 kilometers of railway lines have been under auspices of different political built in the same period. STH program parties. Today, Poland as an economic presents an opportunity to make right on powerhouse of the Central and Eastern this failure, as the railway infrastructure Europe has all the prerequisites needed investments partial to STH program will to successfully develop a new transport allow for more optimized usage of already hub, which is should be considered as existing infrastructure. must-have, bearing in mind that the entire region is in desperate need for Now or never additional airport capacity. By locating In conclusion, successful implementation the new airport in a direct vicinity of two of Solidarity Transport Hub Poland intersecting major international highways program will spur development and as well as train corridors and integrating growth in Poland, as well as Central and the airport seamlessly with railway and Eastern Europe, exponentially increase road systems and further investments, passenger and cargo volumes, and place such as Airport City, it is safe to say there Poland firmly on major trade routes. has never been a better time and place to I therefore urge all stakeholders not build STH. to consider STH through the prism of Mikołaj Wild political rivalries and petty squabbles. June 2019

12 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish–Italian Relations: a Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form” Jan Rokita For years, Italy has not been of much of importance to Polish politics. It was too far away and too far to the West – belonging to the powerful circle of Latin nations in Europe, and, above all, so far utterly uninterested in politics. What has united the two countries in recent years were two factors. First, the opposition of the Polish and Italian governing parties to the disproportionate influence of German political culture and economic thinking, both of which are now dominating the current practice of the European institutions in particular, and second, greater openness to influence, and consequently, to the interests of the EU's South.

2/2019 13 European Union © twitter.com/matteosalvinimi Matteo Salvini in Warsaw at a meeting with the President of Law and Justice party Jarosław Kaczyński.

he visit of Italian Deputy Warsaw would either demand imposing Prime Minister Matteo Salvini sanctions against the Kremlin together to Poland in January 2019 to with Washington or support the EU meet with Jarosław Kaczyński, budget restriction policy together with TPresident of Law and Justice (PiS) and Berlin, both of which would directly the agreements between the Italian Five affect the interests of the European Stars Movement and the Polish Kukiz’15 South. Left-wing Prime Minister Matteo party initiated at the same time raised Renzi, in power in Italy until 2016, was the question of what Polish politics is still somewhat interested in “Polish looking for in Italy. Correspondingly, phobias” in the context of the head of does the country stretching between the European Council Donald Tusk. the northern slopes of the Carpathians Renzi considered his point of view on the and the cold Baltic Sea find anything issue of the protection of the European significant and permanent on the Union borders to be an expression of peninsula? (Or “ch’Appennin parte e “disrespect for the Italian nation”, while ‘l mar circonda e l’Alpe”, as Petrark his views on the war in Ukraine the once put it “geopolitically” in his love result of “Polish Russophobia”.2 However, sonnet1). in fact, both in Rome and in Warsaw, until recently, it was recognized that Until now, Italy had practically not there were no significant interests that existed as an area of interest for Polish could link both countries. Therefore, it politics and Polish state leaders. Indeed, is not surprising that intergovernmental it had its moments, but rather out of Polish–Italian consultations at the level courtesy and tradition. Polish politicians of prime ministers have been frozen asked for meetings with their Italian almost spontaneously since 2013. To counterparts usually when they came put it simply, there was nothing to to church celebrations or had audiences consult. Luigi di Maio, who at the end with the Pope. In turn, in the political of April once again flew to Warsaw, this perspective of Rome, Poland, and the time to a pre-election meeting of the whole area between Germany and Russia, Kukiz’15 party, has just announced that did appear sometimes, but rather as a source of political trouble. Why? Because 2 Rzeczpospolita, May 22, 2014, Premier Renzi nie ma zaufania do Tuska ; „Il Giornale” October 16, 2015. Migranti, scontro Renzi-Tusk: „Da lui frasi non 1 Sonnet 114 in fine rispettose degli italiani”

14 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form” these consultations are supposed to be resumed. Too far away and too far Admittedly, the idea of the superiority of political ties between North and South to the West, belonging over those East and West, the latter of which dominate the real content of to the powerful circle of Polish politics on a daily basis, is still revived from time to time (probably even Latin nations in Europe more than before). The European South appears in this idea as an almost rescuing and, above all, utterly alternative to the tiring entanglement in complicated and highly troublesome uninterested in politics. relations with Russia and Germany. One could even say that this idea is a result troublesome dependencies, or even of of the incomplete Polish consent to the strengthening the importance of Warsaw status quo, which arose in the Central in relations with Berlin, Moscow, and and Eastern European region after Washington. After the 2015 elections won the collapse of the Soviet Union. Two in Poland by Law and Justice, the idea took elements of this status quo are, to some the political form of the so-called Three extent, uncomfortable for the Polish Seas Initiative (TSI). political self-awareness. The first of these is the peripheral economic status of the However, Italy has so far remained on influential German economy, which the margins of this kind of project: as admittedly gave not only Poland but all aforementioned, too far away and too far the countries of the Visegrad group, a to the West, belonging to the powerful strong impulse for economic growth and circle of Latin nations in Europe and, the second industrialization, so much above all, utterly uninterested in politics. desired after the collapse of communist This does not change the fact that recently, industry in the 1990s. However, at the in the circles of Warsaw’s conservative same time, it created (somewhat similar to intelligentsia, the thesis on the so-called Italy) a Polish complex of the perception “Roman form” of Polish political identity of transforming the country into a has been vividly discussed, the defense manufactory of German industry3. The of which would require a significant second element is the constant fear of correction of the real policy pursued by political incalculability of Kremlin rulers the Polish state. A Warsaw-based professor followed by the awareness of the total Marek Cichocki became an intellectual dependence of one’s own security on the voice for such ideas. In practice, this – far from evident – readiness of NATO would mean putting a stop to the excessive to fulfill their allied defense obligations, influence of German political culture and, in fact, of the USA. In essence, the and German economic thinking which idea of building links with the Central dominates, in particular, the current South of Europe (especially with Hungary, practice of the European institutions. Romania, and Croatia), both political and It would also mean greater openness to infrastructural, is sometimes treated as influence, and consequently, also to the a way of at least balancing those real but interests of the EU’s South, including, in particular, those of Italy. “The story 3 Cf. conclusions of the OSW report: “Nowa współzależność. Perspektywy rozwoju polsko- of Europe must start with Aeneas and niemieckiej współpracy gospodarczej”, Warsaw 2019 not with Adenauer and Schuman, Rome

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is more important than Brussels, and even in this relaxed version, was Poland’s return to Europe after the unacceptable to it. In Warsaw, firmly in communist era is a return to the sources, conflict with the European Commission the warmth, and light that exist here in under the leadership of Mr. Juncker, the the South.4 It must be admitted that the Italian categorical demand to limit the ruling Law and Justice party treats such Commission’s control functions in relation intellectual inspirations in a friendly way. to the Member States of the European Also, it is difficult not to recognize in them Union was also welcomed, although it is a particular affinity with the much more worth remembering that Italy and Poland intense and longer lasting Italian debate want to ‘stop’ the Commission in entirely on the harmfulness of the domination of different matters. Rome has traditionally “German values” in Europe.5 wanted the Commission to finally stop imposing budgetary rigor, while Poland is It was not until 2018 when the yellow- concerned with the intrusive interference green coalition took power in Rome, that of Brussels in the reform of the justice the matter was finally brought to the level system. The tactical alliance of Polish of political realities – at least partially. and Italian interests was strengthened by Throughout Central and Eastern Europe the propaganda attacks of the media and Salvini was cheered on when, barely ten European politicians on the yellow-green days after taking office, he started a battle Italian coalition, which President Macron to block Italian ports for black and Arab described as “leprosy spreading even in immigrants, the symbol of which was countries where we thought it would be the case of the ship “Aquarius.” Rome has impossible”6. unexpectedly acted as the main ally of the Visegrad countries in terms of their The unprecedented cycle of conflicts view on the role of the external Schengen between Rome and Paris, which broke border. Shortly after, in June 2018, an the old rule of silencing all differences active but primarily exotic Polish–Italian between the two countries in the name of alliance was formed at a meeting of the EU the cultural solidarity of the Latin peoples, Council of Ministers of the Interior, the was exceptionally to the advantage of result of which was the overthrow of the the Polish Government. It was because so-called “Bulgarian project” of relocating Macron, from the very first moment of its immigrants within the EU. The idea was presidency, spared no public insults and defended with determination but also with threats to Poland, mainly because of the ineffectiveness by Berlin and Paris until high competitiveness of Polish companies the very end. The exotic nature of this and Polish workers on the French market, alliance can be clearly seen from the fact irritating to the French people7. Just like that Rome vetoed the Bulgarian project in the case of criticism from the European on the grounds that it limited the forced Commission, the reasons for the state of relocation to extraordinary situations relations between Warsaw and Rome, on such as the crisis of 2015. Warsaw, at the the one hand, and Paris, on the other, were same time, did so on the exact opposite completely different. The Polish–Italian grounds, because any forced relocation, alliance, however, was formed according to the proven norm that ‘the enemy of 4 M. Cichocki, “Północ i Południe,” Warsaw 2018, p. 85 my enemy is my friend’. The rest has been 5 Cf. “La Decima di Beethoven,” l’editoriale del numero di “Limes” 12/2018: Essere Germania. 6 Zarówno ten tekst, jak i materiały zawarte w tym Il Giornale June 21, 2018, Macron attacca ancora: numerze są dobrym rzutem oka na aktualny stan tej “Populisti lebbra dell’ Europa” debaty we Wloszech. 7 J. Rokita, “Nieprzyjazny Paryż”, wSieci nr 19/2017

16 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form” done by the metapolitical ideas: Salvini, politics. Italy was the first Western country Kaczyński, and Orban are convinced that to break the taboo by recognizing Soviet the EU can only be brought out of the power in 1924, and during the Second current state of confusion if the European World War it consistently showed that the idea is reconciled again with the national war of their ally Hitler with Russia was by identities revived today and if the so- no means an “Italian war.” At the end of called “European values” are no longer the war, Italian-loved communist leader defined in a way confronting Christianty. Palmiro Togliatti led the famous “Svolta di The sudden intensity of Italian–Polish (as Salerno,” introducing (not sovereignly, as well as Italian–Hungarian) cross-party some people say, but on Stalin’s orders8) a consultations, including these visits of party of Soviet agents into the very center Deputy Prime Ministers Salvini (to Law of power of one of the emerging Western and Justice) and Di Maio (to Kukiz’15), alliance states. It was only the dramatic was triggered by the European elections in events of 1948 and the subsequent isolation May and the consequent need for political of the Partito Comunista Italiano (PCI) reorganization of the European Parliament that made Stalin–Togliatti’s plan merely in the summer of 2019. Both Italian impossible. However, as early as 1960, deputy prime ministers and leaders of the Christian Democrat president Giovanni government coalition have ambitions to Gronchi was again the first western head exert more significant influence than before of state to come to Moscow to announce on the shape of EU decisions and need allies a return to the old idea of integrating from large countries, such as Poland. Moscow into European politics and a list of new interests with Russia from However, it was in this very aspect that companies such as Eni, Fiat, and Olivetti. geopolitics entered into Polish–Italian Gronchi even ignored the condemnation relations, causing considerable problems of his line by the Holy See, which – in for the partners, the situation of which the famous sermon of Cardinal Alfredo leads them to a tactical alliance. When Ottaviani in Santa Maria Maggiore in united Italy, still at the end of the 19th Rome, will accuse him of betraying the century, abandoned its revolutionary and memory of the Poles murdered in Katyn9. “Garibaldian” view of its role in Europe, After the fall of the Soviets, Italy again it soon concluded that its interests were became the initiator of Russia’s inclusion strongly correlated with the European in the G7 group at the Naples summit influence of Russia. The unification of in 1994, and stood on Moscow’s side the country could have been made easier during the war with Georgia in 2008, and by the fact that after the defeat of the against Poland, when it tried to locate Crimean War the Romanovs took offense an American “anti-missile shield” on its at the Habsburgs, so Italy had only one territory. Prime Minister Enrico Letta then enemy left on the battlefield – Vienna, flew to Sochi to open the West–boycotted which was a much weaker enemy. The Olympics there, almost precisely at the secret Italian–Russian system concluded time when the Russian hybrid war against in 1904 in Racconigi, directed against Ukraine began. the interests of Austria and Turkey in the Balkans, remains a symbol of that 8 E.Aga-Rossi, V. Zaslavsky, “Togliatti e Stalin. Il PCI “anti-ideological turn” of Italian politics, e la politica estera staliniana negli archivi di Mosca,” which from that moment, despite various Roma 1997. The findings made by these authors based on the research of the Kremlin archives. historical adversities, continuously 9 Alessandro Frigerio, “Il match Gronchi-Kruscev”; returned to the idea of including Russia http://win.storiain.net/arret/num160/artic1.asp; in the mainstream of intra-European accessed on May 1, 2019

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Friends and Enemies of Russia in Europe

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F  E  I    P 

This glance at the history of the united League – in particular – as a special case Italy’s great dream about Russia allows us of support for Vladimir Putin’s neo- to understand that this is a dream that was imperialist whereabouts. A recent edition passed on from generation to generation. of the prestigious Italian geopolitical Moreover, the attitude of the current magazine “Limes” has revealed that Italy’s yellow-green coalition, which evokes civilizational mission is to “take advantage so much emotion in Poland, is neither of the current situation to push Russia historically new, nor unique, nor – most towards the West, freeing it from Chinese importantly – results from any ideological embrace”10. What is more, it also shows radicalism of the League or the Cinque that it is Moscow that chooses Rome as its Stelle Movement, but is simply a permanent privileged partner, seeing that the West legacy of Italian geopolitical thought widely disregards its interests in Europe

10 P. Figuera, “L’Italia puo e deve aiutare la Russia a The liberal opposition in Poland is making rientrare in Europa,” Limes 2/2019: Una Strategia per a mental mistake, treating the Salvini l’Italia, p. 91

18 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form” and in the Mediterranean. The author of this geopolitical sketch and the book “La Russia nel Mediterraneo” published in It also shows that it is 2016, Pietro Figuera from the Istituto di Studi Politici S. Pio V in Rome, emphasizes Moscow that chooses that although the “sovereign” group currently in power in Rome “are tactical Rome as its privileged allies of the Kremlin, but it is, in fact, the result of a permanent attitude of the partner, seeing that the state, and not the line of some transitional government”11. West widely disregards its

At the beginning of his cabinet, interests in Europe and in Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tried to implement a project of in-depth the Mediterranean. cooperation with Moscow, hoping for the bloc as the most faithful allies of the USA. lifting of sanctions against Russia and As far as China is concerned, Conte broke on the Kremlin’s suggestion, blocking to the earlier memorandum. Importantly, build a trans-Adriatic TAP gas pipeline to Italy is doing all of this with the conviction bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. The that it should be doing the exact opposite. mistake made by the leaders of the yellow- green coalition was a misunderstanding Trump’s lesson permanently influences of America’s intentions. They believed that the geopolitical strategy of the yellow- in this way, they would somehow inscribe green coalition. Italians understood Italy in Donald Trump’s new global that ‘contrary to all their hopes, the US strategy. Nothing could be further from approach to Russia has unfortunately not the truth. Conte’s key visit to Washington changed’ and that they are condemned in July 2018 was a real disaster. Trump to ‘follow the US superpower in their “scolded” the Italian Prime Minister most fundamental choices’13. There is not only for the pro-Kremlin excesses, a fundamental difference in approach but also for signing a memorandum between Italy and Poland when it comes to in Beijing on the construction of a 5G the recognition of American leadership in telecommunication system with the the name of fundamental reasons for one’s Chinese, and threatened Italy with US security. In Poland, there is a fear that economic and financial retaliation12. The America may fail to fulfill its obligations effect of that visit turned out to be striking. in this area, hence the insistence on the Italy now loyally votes for sanctions increasingly strong presence of the US against Moscow every six months, Army and American military installations confirms the construction of TAP, buys on Polish territory. Italian politics, on 90 American F35 fighters, supports the the other hand, lives sui generis with a American-inspired rebellion in Venezuela ‘complex,’ being convinced that Italy (although Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio should, in essence, follow a completely is protesting here), and deliberately tries different course, but cannot, because of its to bind itself deeper with the Visegrad weakness – primarily financial – which countries, which in Rome are treated en makes it dependent on US-controlled international financial institutions.

11 Ib, p. 99 Even the Fitch ratings of February 2019, 12 D. Fabri, “L’Italia per l’America ovvero per se,” Limes 2/2019, p. 42 13 Ib, pp. 43–45

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of the Law and Justice party, the reference to Germany is very ambivalent. The Profound differences and political rhetoric of the ruling party can be highly anti–German, both because of the collisions of Italian and unexpired trauma of the Nazi occupation and the strong syndrome of the “German Polish geopolitics are now manufactory”. When it comes to the European integration, however, Warsaw visible. and Berlin have been going hand in which are relatively positive for Italy, are hand for years, especially when it comes treated in Rome as proof of America’s to opposition to the building of diverse “satisfaction,” which could change at circles of integration and strict fiscal rules. any time. The current calculation of the The recent declarations of the Polish head Conte government is, therefore, moving in of diplomacy do not leave Italy with much this direction in order to take advantage hope here: “Do not subsidize those in need of the opportunities offered by current of reform.” 16 In the event of a sharp dispute American policy. Italian analysts are mostly with Berlin over the rules of the eurozone, convinced that Trump’s European goal is which may arise in the event of a further to counteract both Russian and German economic downturn, Rome might not be influence on the continent, in the name able to count on Poland, nor on Central of the same principles that led Americans and Eastern Europe as a whole to intervene militarily in Europe in both World Wars.14 While in the case of Russia because it may be on the side of Germany. (and China) Rome is trying to demonstrate In Warsaw, on the other hand, there its subordination to Washington in actions remains an insurmountable distrust of (and not necessarily in words), in the the Italian view that the greater influence case of Germany it may want to use the of Moscow on Europe is correlated with opportunity to confront Berlin, especially the growing importance of Italy and the in the most critical field for Italy: eurozone possibility of being promoted to a higher reform, European co-responsibility for level of sovereignty over America. Even debts, and agreement on budget loosening. if political pragmatism makes successive Italians are even counting on the fact that in governments in Rome, regardless of the event of any EU’s (i.e., indeed German) their ideological orientation, follow economic retaliation, they could count on Washington’s directions in key world compensation and rescue from America.15 politics out of unwanted necessity. Both sides are unable to overcome their natural Profound differences and collisions of geopolitical limitations, i.e., radically Italian and Polish geopolitics are now different geography and completely visible. In Rome, Poland is treated as part different heritage of their state policy. Italia of the core of the “European empire of will not become part of an imaginary the USA” and would like Washington “Baltic-Adriatic corridor” and will remain to influence its younger ally so that it on the margins of the slowly developing does not cling to the German financial projects of the Three Seas Initiative strategy of disciplining the South of the EU. However, in Poland, under the rule Furthermore, the dreams of the Polish intelligentsia of transforming the “Roman 14 “L’Europa tedesca, incubo americano”, Limes (editorial) 5/2017: USA-Germania, duello per 16 Rzeczpospolita April 30 – May 1, 2019, „Jacek l’Europa Czaputowicz: Razem z Niemcami w obronie jedności 15 Fabri, pp. 39–40 Eu ropy.”

20 The Warsaw Institute Review Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form” Infrastructure Projects in the Trimarium R  N  F  H  1 V C  H  2 V B   S    3 G H  T 4 R E65 R E75 (“A  H ”) S  9 R  WR  6 W  E40 7 D -O -E C R R  2 M K 8 S  C B  S 9 R B   10 K G O  P   V 10 G-O  Ś  6 M 11 B  G P   3 4 10 8 10 B  P   P M B  W 11 N -S C 2 1 9 B  6 E  B (L -P) G  11 L I    –  10 K (P-L ) K  B P R  P K    C  6 3 7 11 V  D ’ B L B  K V  6 D   10 M  11 O  B  O  L 4 A S Z  T 1 B   I  K B  C 
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form” into real political shapes will the time of the ongoing ideological war likely remain illusions. What is real, in the European Union, it is quite a however, is the opposition of the parties strong platform for cooperation, but it is in power today in Rome and Warsaw not rooted in profound and permanent to the excessive claims of the European geopolitical interests. Commission and the vague common hopes of reconciling the European idea Jan Rokita with the national idea and religion. For June 2019

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Why Is It Worth- while To Lose Golden Horse- shoes in Rome? Mirosław Lenart, Professor This year we celebrate the 100th anniversary of the renewal of diplomatic relations between Poland and the Holy See, the establishment of which was possible after Poland had regained its independence in 1918. This anniversary is an excellent opportunity to reflect upon the role and importance of these relations, especially since religious issues remain a major topic of discussions – particularly in European countries. This debate consists of both identity issues traditionally associated with Christian roots, and the role of the institutions of the Catholic Church – which continues to have a significant influence in a secularized world confronted by Islamic believers.

efore we recall the historical First, there comes the Vatican and the fact facts referred to in the title to hardly ever mentioned by the media – the the old forms of diplomacy, state is still the seat of two Popes. Benedict we are going to present the XVI did not cease his activity, which is Bunderlying problems characterizing closely followed by the people interested the Holy See and the Church in Poland in the directions in which the Holy See is today. heading today. As for the evaluation of the

22 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome?

Vatican City, APRIL 19, 2019. Pope Francis. © Maurizio Brambatti (PAP/EPA)

current activities of the Bishop of Rome, in a different cultural context and on a it is worth noting that the criticism of his different continent, where, for example, lack of clarity in moral matters is growing. the conundrum of an Islamic onrush is The doubts and discussions mentioned practically non-existent. here extend to dogmatic issues, which lead to denouncements of the Pope, the As far as the Catholic Church in Poland undermining of his teachings, and even is concerned, the most obvious thing is a stir accusations of heresy. Ultimately, lack of understanding of the threats posed these assessments reveal his lack of by Catholic patriotism, which often takes understanding of Europe’s predicaments, the form of nationalism strengthened by particularly when we bear in mind that religious values. The observation referring he was formed and gained experience to the perception of the representative of

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here are directly related to a complete misunderstanding of the new situation As far as the Catholic that arose in the Vatican after the death of John Paul II. The significant outflow of the Church in Poland is Polish clergy from the Vatican to Poland concerned, the most has weakened the possibility of influencing the presentation of current problems obvious thing is a lack relevant to the local Polish Church, and the explanation of the political context of understanding of the in which it has to operate. The limitation of this message concerns mainly threats posed by Catholic ecclesiastical matters, but also refers to the political situation in Poland. The patriotism, which problem is that during the pontificate of John Paul II, no one needed to explain often takes the form of Polish matters in the Vatican, and after the nationalism strengthened death of the Polish Pope, no one realized that such a message is perhaps even more by religious values necessary than ever. However, while the church structures have their information Vatican diplomacy in Poland, from the channels, the Polish representation in the beginning of the renewal of these relations, Vatican needed a complete reformulation is still valid. It comes down to the fact of its activities, which unfortunately had that the Apostolic Nuncio seems to be not done. During the life of the Polish treated as the representative of Poland in Pope, the representatives of diplomatic the Vatican and not as the Pope’s envoy services accredited to the Vatican could for the realization of the goals designated practically concentrate on organizing by the head of the Church. Ermenegildo further visits of representatives of the Pellegrinetti, the secretary of Achille Ratti, authorities to the bishop of Rome, which the first Nuncio after Poland had regained satisfied political, religious, and probably its independence, was the author of such partly also patriotic aspirations of the an assessment. visitors. It is regrettable to say that such a form of practising Vatican diplomacy As for Poland’s diplomatic representatives seems to still be desirable, which is mainly in Rome, it may be noticed that they are due to a complete lack of understanding unable to communicate the message of the role of the Papacy and the potential concerning both the specificity of the of Rome itself in conducting effective Catholic Church in Poland in the historical diplomacy. For Poland, the aim of the context, as well as the Polish culture latter is, among other things, to strengthen itself. The latter is difficult to speak about the positive image of Poland. in a competent way without discussing the issues of religion. Most painful, Mutual contacts resulting from the however, seems to be the lack of control relations between the Holy See and over the messages from Poland heard in Poland are currently burdened with the Vatican, which allows, for example, inconveniences related to the lack of politicians at random to signal to the understanding of the role of the media Pope the problems of the Polish Church, and the possibility of subordinating maneuvering the Pope into current the message to political goals. This is political disputes. The facts provided particularly evident in conforming to the

24 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome? © Cezary Langda (PAP) Warsaw, June 2, 1979. Pope John Paul II and Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński at Victory Square (currently Piłsudski Square). Contacts resulting from pressure exerted by representatives of the the relations between the mass media in shaping general knowledge on the courses of action and the current Holy See and Poland are standpoint. Moreover, there is a tendency to organize the past based on religious currently burdened with symbols and acts, which can especially be seen on the example of actions leading inconveniences related to to beatification and canonization of successive popes of the twentieth century. the lack of understanding The latter of the present-day tendencies of the role of the media mentioned here, which due to the canonization of John Paul II also concerns and the possibility Poland, has its serious consequences. First of all, each Pope acts based on a political of subordinating the line of his choice, nature, and duration of which are linked to the dynamics of message to political goals.

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© Alessandro Di Meo (PAP/EPA) Swiss guards stand in front of the St. Peter's Basilica at the end of the Christmas Day message by Pope Francis (not visible here), in Vatican City, on Christmas Day, DECEMBER 25, 2015. emphasis on such issues as the right to life of unborn children or marriage ethics, is being attacked not only for his views in this area, but above all for hiding cases of The more superficial pedophilia among clergy, including Poles (for instance bishop Józef Wesołowski who and emotional the died in 2015). Let us note that the calendar of political events almost always dictates relationship between the sequence of attacks, so it is not difficult believers and religion is, to get the impression that the main objective of the attack is religion itself or, the more effective the more specifically, the attachment to faith. The more superficial and emotional the political attacks become. relationship between believers and religion is, the more effective the political attacks historical change. Canonizing the Pope become. On the one hand, they are a means canonizing not only a person but source of justification for moral conflicts also perhaps it can be perceived as a kind arising in this context in humanity, and on of “canonizing” of a specific political line the other, they reduce the reality of faith connected with his pontificate. Raised to to the subject of political dispute, where it the altars, the Pope becomes an easy target can be effectively ridiculed and discredited and at the same time an object of even as any political idea. more lively criticism, which in the past was already the case of Pius X, canonized The elimination of Christianity from before the Second Vatican Council. It social life seems to be for many left-wing is now evident that this fate also affects parties’ supporters not only a guarantee of John Paul II. The Polish Pope, a specialist the fall of the Church (which they loathe) in moral theology, who has placed great as a structure not subject to full control

26 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome? of the state. This will, in their opinion, make it possible to reach an agreement that transcends the religious divisions The elimination of more and more apparent in Europe. The assumption of the “liberation” of man Christianity from social from the bonds of religion, which is, in their view, supposed to characterize life seems to be for modern man, would allow bringing many left-wing parties’ closer the increasingly multinational and multiethnic community of people supporters not only a living in the Old Continent. Of course, abandonment of faith should also apply guarantee of the fall of to adherents of other religions, including Islam, for example, but how this goal is to the Church (which they be achieved is not very clear. loathe) as a structure not One way of explaining this is to acknowledge that the creators of the future subject to full control of Europe are people who continue to of the state. This will, think in the languages traditionally used in Western Europe. Since thinking is carried in their opinion, make out in language, the way of understanding the world in languages unknown to it possible to reach European ideologues is entirely alien. The target of the attack is, therefore, what is an agreement that related to the Christian religion and what seems familiar and understandable. What transcends the religious is more, those who think in these languages have at their disposal a vast oeuvre of divisions more and more theologians and philosophers who, over the centuries, have conducted sophisticated apparent in Europe. deliberations on faith and religion-related topics – which have often resulted in the spiritual guides is obliterated. This is partly rejection of God. There will likely be little a result of the delayed reaction to the line discussion of this type of consideration of taken by Pope Francis about the cases of Islam, not only because a possible attack on pedophilia in the Church. Furthermore, the foundations of the faith of its followers his teaching and activity, perceived with would meet with a strong reaction, but great mistrust by a part of the Episcopate, also because of a widespread superficial clearly overlapped with the conviction understanding of all that is at the heart of rooted in the Polish Church that it is this religion. Poland that knows better and reacts more appropriately to the problems faced by the A massive problem in the efforts to defend Bishop of Rome. Pope John Paul II, a Polish the faith and lead the faithful to salvation is Pope anticipated for a long time, is, in the the situation we are dealing with today in conviction of many people, key evidence of the Polish Church. Its leaders, bishops, have this to the present day. allowed for the position under which they have to act according to the dictatorship of It should be noted that the attitude we the media. As a consequence, their role as are discussing here is mainly due to the

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idea of the militant Church has its effects in the way it acts, where the practices It is probable that characteristic for the reaction on the battlefield are adapted to the action in the the result was that sphere of faith. It is probable that the result was that in solving difficult problems in solving difficult connected with immoral behavior of problems connected representatives of the clergy, the Church applied the principle of sacrificing the with immoral behavior suffering of victims for the greater good – protecting the faithful from moral of representatives of the corruption. It should be noted that in such an action one can see the awareness clergy, the Church applied of shallow rooting of faith, which, by the way, will be possible to assess soon after the principle of sacrificing the effects of the scandals shaking the Church in Poland. However, we are not the suffering of victims dealing here with a more in-depth analysis for the greater good – of this phenomenon but considering the consequences of this situation in relations protecting the faithful between the Polish Church, the Polish state, and the Holy See. from moral corruption. Firstly, one should be aware that the It should be noted that in slogan Polonia Semper Fidelis long ago ceased to have the meaning it indeed such an action one can see had characterized the vast majority of Poles during the partitions. Poland is the awareness of shallow becoming more and more of a problem for the Vatican – less exposed since the rooting of faith, which, by European Union itself is today not the the way, will be possible object of particular interest of the Pope responsible for the Church all over the to assess soon after the world. The role of Christian Poland as the savior of Europe certainly strengthens the effects of the scandals idea of a local national church, but from the perspective of the Holy See, which shaking the Church in began centralizing the Roman Curia with Pius X, it is not only incomprehensible Poland. but above all contradictory to this agenda. specific experience of Christianity in this It seems that the Church in Poland must part of Europe. In Polish culture, the as soon as possible do its history and conviction of its leading role in defense diplomacy homework and start its mission of religious and pan-European values has in accordance with the expectations become rooted, finally acquired in the coming from the heart of Christianity. seventeenth century based on aspirations The active participation of its structures to refer to the Republic of Poland as to a in supporting the faithful will give better bulwark of Christendom – Antemurale results in the pursuit of national unity Christianitatis. The attachment to the than supporting patriotic or national

28 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome? ideas. Ultimately, it will also help to spread who came to Pope Urban VIII on behalf Christian ideas and achieve the goals of of the Polish King Wladyslaw IV with both the Church community and those an obedience message, drove to Rome political forces recognizing the positive through the gate of Porta del Popolo. This role of Christian faith, tradition, and roots arrival is remembered not only with the in Europe. exceptional splendor that the artist Stefano Della Bell captured in his etchings, but In order to do that, it would be appropriate also the golden horseshoes with which to treat the Vatican and Rome as places of the Polish diplomat’s horse was shoed effective diplomatic influence in terms of before entering the eternal city. These explaining the role of Poland in Europe. temporarily fixed horseshoes were left on Making it a national perspective will the pavement of Roman streets and for a always be burdened with the current long time remained a symbol of the power political dispute and the conflicts that are of the Polish state1. The most important constantly arising in relations between act, however, was the celebratory speech the Member States of the European itself, given in Latin by the Polish Member Union – where there is a sharp financial of Parliament, which impressed the Pope and economic dispute. In this struggle, and was immediately translated into religion, values, and ideas are and will French, Spanish, and German as a model continue to play the role of the means to for future orators facing the Bishop of obtain immediate benefits in the form of Rome2. It is hardly surprising then that power, influence, and money. Therefore, Ossoliński’s message is considered to be it is not Brussels, Berlin, Paris or Warsaw, more than successful, and not only in the but the Vatican and Rome that can short-term promotion of the importance invariably function as the center of the of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. debate on the ideological future of Europe. Apart from the ephemeral memory after the ceremonial entrance, the permanent The weakening of the role of the Catholic trace of the presence of the Polish diplomat Church, the spiritual and organizational was a set of matters that were presented center of which is now the Vatican, to the Pope in order to obtain his consent. certainly reduced the once established Among them, it is worth noting that conviction that it is Rome that is a place a separate breviary officeOfficium ( of special importance for diplomacy gratiarum actionis pro victoria ex Turcis – and thus a specific promotion of the obtenta anno 1621) was established in position and culture of nations belonging connection with the victory of the Polish to the community referring in Europe army over the Turkish army in the Battle to common roots. There are countless of Khotyn in 16213. In the history of examples of this – ceremonial entrances, the Church until that moment, only the canonizations of national saints, showy victory of the combined Catholic forces in funerals or other solemn ceremonies held in the Eternal City, which are known 1 Arturo Cronia, Festi polacchi in Italia, in: Relazioni from the past. It is worth recalling at tra Padova e la Polonia. Studi in onore dell’ Università least one such event, which will link the di Cracovia nel VI centenario della sua fondazione, Padova 1964, p. 10 (Contributi alla Storia dell’ deliberations conducted here with the title Universita di Padova, vol.1). proposed at the beginning. 2 Maria Barłowska, Jerzy Ossoliński – orator polskiego baroku, Katowice 2000. On November 27, 1633, a pageant of 3 Mirosław Lenart, Miles pius et iustus. Żołnierz chrześcijański katolickiej wiary w kulturze several thousand people, 300 of whom i piśmiennictwie dawnej Rzeczypospolitej belonged to the retinue of Jerzy Ossoliński, (XVI–XVIII w.), Warsaw 2009, pp. 179–185.

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© Leszek Wróblewski (PAP) June 13, 1999, Warsaw. Pope John Paul II celebrated the Holy Mass at Piłsudski Square in Warsaw. one such mission provoked an Italian Jesuit Antoni Possevino to write a book the naval battle of Lepanto deserved such for the army, which was later used by Piotr a distinction. Celebrating the victories of Skarga to write a catechism for soldiers the Polish army, included in the liturgical – Żołnierskie nabożeństwo “Soldier›s calendar, was an act that gave recognition Service” (first edition – Krakow 1606). This to the event, comparable to today’s book accompanied Polish soldiers for over appearance in the headlines of the most two centuries, and the texts of its prayers important newspapers in the world – and can also be found in contemporary prayer it should be added that this appearance books prepared for the army4. would have to be repeated every year. The examples given here from the period Even when the Papal States collapsed in of the power of the Republic of Poland 1870, the seat of the Bishop of Rome was a show the value for Polish diplomacy of point of reference and a source of support communicating with the world through for Poles. Testimony would be the national Rome. It also shows that the center of pilgrimages to Rome at the end of the Christianity was treated as a kind of 19th century, during which the desire to “center of command” not only in spiritual but also in military matters. This was, of 4 Mirosław Lenart, Podręcznik życia wojskowego course, justified by the fact that the Papal i religijnego Piotra Skargi, in: „Kto ojczyźnie swej służy sam sobie służy”. Pamiątka obchodów czterechsetlecia States once took an active part in military śmierci Piotra Skargi, ed. Mirosław Lenart, Opole missions. It should be remembered that 2014, pp. 45–56 (Opera Extraordinaria, 4).

30 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome? regain freedom and connectivity were context of the deliberations conducted here, manifested, despite the divisions between it seems that it is necessary to recall facts the partitioning states. The Pope was closer to us in time – on Friday, December also made a trustee of the independence 6, 2012, the day of the Epiphany, Pope issue and a kind of guarantor of historical Benedict XVI uttered significant words, truth. Meanwhile, it has not been which still seem to be valid today: “la forgotten that the Holy See constitutes an civiltà occidentale sembra avere smarrito invariably important point of reference l’orientamento, naviga a vista’ [it seems in the conduct of international politics. that the Western Civilization has lost its Therefore, the Vatican at the beginning of orientation and is now navigating using its the last century was a place where an event eyesight]. In his speech, the Pope wished to that significantly influenced the fate of the stress that only the Church can see through Church in the world and Poland happened. the fog in which Europe is lost. On August 2, 1903, the Bishop of Krakow, Jan Maurycy Puzyna, issued the last The observation of the Bishop of Rome veto on the conclave in the history of the seems to be accurate, but it is especially Church, which blocked the assumption true of those countries which have been in of the Holy See by Cardinal Mariano contact with the problems of the conflict Rampolla del Tindaro. Eventually, two of cultures in the background, burdened days later, Pius X became Pope, and on with the experience of fighting, through May 29, 1954, he was declared a saint of other nations or only through the products the Catholic Church. The blocking of of a given culture. Franco Cardini in the Rampolla, who had excellent relations introduction to Daga Tessore7’s book with Russian diplomacy, has supported The Mystic of War Mistica( della guerra) the faithful of the Roman Catholic Church rightly pointed out that the radical in the territory of the Russian partition rejection of violence as a means of conflict – subjected to pressure from Orthodox resolution after World War II, which was Russia, which was reluctant to accept the the result of the exceptionally traumatic faith that consolidated Poles within the experiences of the people involved in the framework of national, linguistic and conflict, had unpredictable consequences. cultural values5. It is about rejecting the idea of fighting deeply rooted in culture and which in In this short study, we decided not to Christianity is of great importance – in include the great importance for Polish- the context of the spiritual struggle. Vatican relations of the election as Pope of Looking at the history of the Polish the first apostolic nuncio in Poland after nation and Polish culture, we realize Achilles Ratti’s independence as Pope, that this assessment applies primarily to a subject which is widely discussed in a those countries and nations in which the bilingual volume recently published in the fight was not so crucial in the process of Vatican. Also, the figure of John Paul II preserving cultural and religious identity. would require a separate analysis6. In the If we look at the Balkan countries, it is hardly surprising that religious conflicts 5 See vol. edited by the author: Genealogia dei desideri. Pio X nella memoria del popolo dell’Alta Slesia a cura di Miroslaw Lenart e Gianpaolo Romanato / Qurino Alessandro Bortolato, Mirosław Lenart, ed. Mirosław Lenart, Gianpaolo Romanato, Libreria LEV: Città del Vaticano 2017 (Pontificio Comitato Editrice Vaticana: Città del Vaticano, 2015 (Pontificio di Scienze Storiche – Atti e Documenti 47; Opera Comitato di Scienze Storiche, 38; Atti e Documenti Extraordinaria 10). Opera extraordinaria, 5. 7 Dag Tessore, La mistica della guerra. Spiritualita 6 Nunzio in una terra di frontiera. Achille Ratti, delle armi nel Cristianesimo e nell ‘Islam, prefazione poi Pio XI, in Polonia (1918–1921) a cura di / ed. di Franco Cardini, Roma: Fazi, 2003.

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adopted the concept of a Europe without borders. This idea is much easier to accept Countries such as by the Church – it treats its structures only as organizational support of the political Hungary or Romania models of the states in which it operates. And although political changes sometimes are hesitant to migration lead to disputes over boundaries for dioceses, which also occurred after the because a notion from territorial changes resulting from the last war, it is possible to find an agreement the collective cultural relatively quickly, because the primary goal is to provide spiritual care for the experience of these faithful. It turns out, however, that the nations defending their borders for countries includes centuries and, what is more, considering themselves to being a part of a fortified that Islam can only be camp – such as Poland, which is close to the idea of a besieged fortress – find it stopped by force. difficult to understand that the solution to the problem lies in understanding their own limitations resulting from attitudes remain one of the most important fixed in the cultural context of education, elements of its regional policy – because characteristic of a given country. The point of permanent conflict with the Ottoman is that in the past it was much easier, and Empire or its very existence within its probably still is, to fight a real enemy, and borders. Therefore, it is hardly surprising it is much more challenging to undertake that countries such as Hungary or a spiritual fight so close to the moral Romania are hesitant to migration because and spiritual path of development that a notion from the collective cultural Christianity proposes. experience of these countries includes that Islam can only be stopped by force. Finally, it is essential to once again pay There is a reference here to religion, not to attention to Jerzy Ossoliński’s speech, separate states, because the boundaries of mentioned in the introduction, which, division have been recognized in this way although delivered in the 17th century, for centuries. The experience in question ends in a way that partly reflects the is not alien to Poland, which for centuries character of Polish religiousness and has been consolidating its image as a spirituality: bulwark of Christianity. The problem is that while in the past, this attitude was “[...] the first place belongs to Poland, which, supported by Rome, which seemed to be just as it succumbs to its rulers, voluntarily at the forefront of the crusade against the submits to religion and holiness – not by forces threatening Christian Europe, the violence and not forced. This Sarmatia, situation has now changed completely. inaccessible to Roman weapons, succumbs today to the Roman faith. Once the The Vatican, whose strength lies in the hostess of so many superstitions, today constant reform of its structures and its it is the handmaid of the Only God; the adaptation to the changing world, which most fervent guardian of freedom, never makes it the only institution with such a touched by oppression; today it yields to long, uninterrupted history, seems to have Roman bishops and the Holy See. Poland,

32 The Warsaw Institute Review Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome?

I say, which alone does not give birth huts; they do not know fortified castles, to monsters in the world. No heresy, no drawbridges, because they feel safe with separation from it has come out, and if their fundamental laws and the innocence there are some infected by the disease of of life. [...] So raise, the Greatest Pope, Your neighboring nations, they are soon cut off right hand, with which you keep this world, from all the nobility by the strict laws of moved by the storm, and the falling truth, our punishment and the eternal infamy of for the happiness of our age. Strengthen the their stigma. [...] passion in faith is inborn son of Your endeavor with a divine blessing. in the Polish nation; hence this respect Other Christian lords will be awakened for the bishops, who gave way to the first with this example, and, having abandoned places in the Senate and to whom the the harmful fame of their envy, will turn most important matters of the Republic their weapons to the place of the plunderer, of Poland were devoted. I leave aside the for long crying out for vengeance. religious edifices and decoration of their generosity, and I will keep silent that the Truly, my King, like now himself, subjects earnest service is there and the whole world his kingdom and his weapon to Your unanimously recognizes it. However, the Holiness and declares respect and fidelity greatness of the mind of this nation is seen, to the Holy See. He promises, and he will and from this very thing it is known that always be ready to follow your guidance, to for so many centuries it has been against follow the Christian banners under your the wild and cruel Christian enemies, it command – not only to march behind does not yield to them. Ottoman crescents, them but to overtake them8.” which have endured so many powerful armies, so many defensive cities, so many And although the last words of inaccessible glens, so many clever rivers, so Ossoliński’s speech sound a bit many Christian settlements, and destroyed disturbing, the discussion can be so many of them, are being stopped by concluded with a question whether Poles. It is one Republic’s merit that the Poland can allow itself to be a country Tatar acrimony that has not spilled all in which religious issues function on over Europe so far. Muscovites, who are different levels of communication; to Christians only by name, but their conduct abandon Rome and the Vatican? This and customs worse than of the rest of the question will be justified by the history barbarians – we have won them so many still present in the salons of the Vatican times, oppressed them and finally turned and referring to the visit of the Polish the most beautiful part of their countries deputation in the ‘90s. John Paul II into our province. It was all the greatest irritated a little by the acts of homage merit of the mind and the Roman virtue. that he received, was said to address We rewarded the ancient city with the his compatriots from Poland: the Holy sternness of our ancestors when we adopted See expects from the representatives of its laws and customs. Here is the source of diplomacy competence, not devotion. our freedom, justice, and law; here is the source of the examples of our valiant rule. Mirosław Lenart Nothing caressed or effeminate in our June 2019 customs and outfits. Children’s youth do not spend their years at lutes and dances, but in the camp; the nobility is not ashamed 8 Teksty źródłowe do nauki historii w szkole of farming, they protect itself from the średniej. Zeszyt 36 – Od rokoszu Zebrzydowskiego do wojen kozackich w świetle źródeł przedstawił city’s pleasures, which weaken the militant dr Kazimierz Tyszkowski bibliotekarz Ossolineum spirit. People of elevated hearts live in low we Lwowie, Cracow 1923, pp. 30–32.

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The European Union in Relation to World Powers Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, Professor Rivalry of the US with Russia and China has induced a new course of change in the post-Cold War international order. Thus far, while Europe has participated in this rivalry to a limited extent, it has ambitions, however, to reassume a predominant role in the new, multipolar geopolitical order. Europe also intends to maintain the globalization of institutions of trade, ensuring a favorable exchange of trade and investment on the global scale.

Introduction geopolitical potential is systematically he subjects of the analysis are declining. Similarly, in the case of the relations of the European Russia – which in recent years has been Union (EU) with three world trying to rebuild old influences and powers: the US, Russia and even expand them – has nonetheless Tthe People’s Republic of China (PRC). categorically lost importance in Among them, the United States still comparison to the influence it carries the largest importance, albeit, its commanded during the Cold War era.

34 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union in Relation to World Powers © Marcin Obara (PAP) Brussels, Belgium, April 11, 2019. European Commission.

On the other hand, China is the power The European Union is attempting to which is growing in both potential and cooperate with all these powers, and yet at geopolitical ambitions; increasingly the same time, is also co-competing with dominating in relations with Russia, as an increasingly greater amplitude. This is well as rivalling with the US for primacy a result of geopolitical changes which were with increasing confidence. induced by the crumbling of the Cold War

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of dynamic change within the international order with considerable aspirations Germany and the entire of capitalizing upon this potential. Notwithstanding these developments, the EU entered a period chances of realizing European ambitions are of dynamic change decreasing further and further. Analyzing the issue of the EU’s position within the international in relation to world powers ought to be order with considerable approached from an angle of the geo- economics concept. Most often, it is defined aspirations of capitalizing as the exploitation of economic instruments by states for strategic purposes, in both upon this potential. the economic sphere and in geopolitics1. This is relevant to attaining asymmetrical Notwithstanding these advantages over rivals which would weaken them or make them dependent and at developments, the chances the same time surrender authority to the dominating power. In the case of the of realizing European European Union, geo-economic efforts ambitions are decreasing are undertaken foremost by select member states; in general, by the largest ones. At the further and further. level of the European Union, this type of activity is less visible, though representatives order. First, the collapse of the Eastern of EU institutions can also implement these Bloc took place along with the distinct activities, especially under the influence or weakening of Moscow. Then, as it turned pressure from national governments. In out, progressively larger problems have also foreign policy, France and Germany have affected the US. In this way, the domination the largest influence on EU institutions; of the two most important states after World wherein although this had also included War II appears to be in passing, especially Great Britain earlier, from the moment relative to states which are gaining influence the referendum concerning Brexit had and importance. In the first instance this occurred, the role of London has decidedly pertains to the PRC, which is aiming to decreased in this field. As in the case of assume a leadership role, taking it from shaping EU policy towards external powers, Washington in a new, Sino-centric global the first tunes are played by Berlin and Paris. order in an accelerating manner. As such, the objective of this analysis is to attain an answer to the question on what Besides China, another state which has the specifics of European geo-economics clearly benefited from the aftermath of the are. Until now, the EU approach has been Cold War is a unified Germany. Integration dominated foremost by economic interests, processes in Europe have, to this day, and geopolitical matters have been rather supported the potential and international secondary. It is for this reason the EU is role of this country. Nonetheless, the EU often described as an economic power, faces many challenges, and so far, Germany yet a geopolitical dwarf. With regards to is not a regional hegemony. To lead the this aspect, do the economic aims still EU, it requires the support from other EU 1 E.N. Luttwak, From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: member states, namely France. Therefore, Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce, National Germany and the entire EU entered a period Interest, 1990, 20 (summer), pp. 17-23.

36 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union in Relation to World Powers

BELGIUM, DECEMBER 11, 2017. Federica Mogherini, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

© Stephanie Lecocq (PAP/EPA) dominate, or are they perhaps becoming That at the beginning of gradually enhanced with geopolitics? Are the economic instruments, therefore, being the 21st century, the EU utilized for the pursuit of geostrategic aims? relations with the US has United States of America Academics and researchers generally been weakening, both in consider that at the beginning of the 21st century, the EU relations with the US the areas of economics has been weakening, both in the areas of economics and geopolitics2. After the end and geopolitics. of the Cold War, the role of NATO and the US in western Europe has undergone It results in a certain extent from the change. It has resulted from a diminished shaping of EU competences in this sphere. threat perception from the side of Russia, Foreign economic policy is a competency a perception that is especially true within solely of the EU and it is overseen by the France and Germany. On the same European Commission. geopolitical basis, transatlantic cooperation has undergone erosion. Economic issues In turn, European foreign policy and gained foreground importance for the security is conducted first and foremost in mutual relationship, which are confirmed intergovernmental institutions, ergo by the by earlier studies. For the EU institutions, EU member states. The role of the European the key matter in foreign policy is the Commission here is decidedly smaller promotion of European economic interests3. compared to its role in economic policy; therefore, the Court of Justice of the EU is 2 M. Riddervold, A. Newsome, Transatlantic excluded from this field. Notwithstanding relations in Times of uncertainty: crises and EU-US relations, Journal of European Integration, 2018, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 505-521. w Europie, Instytut Studiów Politycznych PAN, 3 T.G. Grosse, W poszukiwaniu geoekonomii Warsaw 2014.

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the division of competences in EU foreign interests, as it had taken place in the policy, it is the member states that take the example of the differing approach on the fundamental strategic role in the spheres issue of Iran. For the largest EU states of economics and geopolitics. The focusing – signatories of the nuclear agreement of the EU on economic interests results, with Tehran7 in 2015 – maintaining this therefore, not so much from granted agreement had an economic dimension, competences as from, predominantly, the as many European firms participated in interests of its largest states. economic exchange with this country and dreaded the return of American Simultaneously, economic relations with sanctions. Accordingly, Germany, France Washington were characterized by a and Great Britain established the company growing number of discrepancies. An INSTEX, which was supposed to operate example was the assertiveness of both financial transactions with Iran, under the sides during negotiations on the topic of assumption it would allow European firms the Transatlantic Trade and Investment to avoid American sanctions. It turned out Partnership (TTIP), which was unable to be ineffective as the largest enterprises to have been negotiated in the period of feared sanctions in the form of closing off the presidency of Barack Obama, and the access to the American market and to the discussions thereafter on this topic were financial sector of the said country. Faced suspended by Donald Trump4. These with the decision between cooperation with disputes concerned multiple economic the US or with Iran – they chose the larger sectors, commencing from the aviation partner. On the European side, it was an industry; a several-year long legal dispute equally important factor of the geopolitical at the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute surrounding Iran. It was associated forum, imports of steel and automobiles with approaching the multipolar order, and into the US, blocking the imports of simultaneously defending the multilateral American food by the EU, decreasing the agreement with Tehran with significant monopolistic position of American internet importance for the strategic situation in the companies on the EU’s internal market, Middle East. as well as limiting armament imports from the US5. Discrepancies in economic Following the Cold War period, western interests underwent an escalation in Europe was counting on the possibility recent years, especially during the Trump of overcoming Washington’s dominance administration. For this reason, researchers and establishing a more balanced tend to acknowledge that there is even a multipolar order, based on multilateral disintegration of mutual relations taking agreements, based on international law place6. and organizations. It is acknowledged that in such an environment the European To a further extent, the worsening of regulatory and diplomatic strength would these relations accordingly includes be celebrating triumphs. Therefore, the EU geopolitical issues. These were, from intended to build its geopolitical potential time to time, the function of economic relying heavily on economic and negotiation potential and less on military strength. 4 M. Smith, The EU, the US and the crisis of contemporary multilateralism, Journal of European Scholars purport that the European Integration, 2018, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 539-553 [548]. aspiration for multipolarity is most often 5 M. Peel, A. Barker, Europe must open military initiated and carried out by member states, projects to foreign firms, says US envoy, Financial Times, 11 March 2019, p. 2. occasionally without the participation of 6 M. Smith, The EU, the US and the crisis of contemporary multilateralism, p. 539. 7 The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

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EU institutions (as it was such in the case of the Normandy Format of 2014). This occurs relatively sporadically and is not really Following the Cold War effective8. period, western Europe European ambitions for multipolarity to a was counting on the large extent were based on the international order, which was constructed in the possibility of overcoming aftermath of World War II and was ensured and guaranteed by the US. Meanwhile, one Washington’s dominance of the most important manifestations of the European approach to multipolarity was the and establishing a more emphasis on strategic autonomy in defense policy, which largely was regarded as being balanced multipolar order. independence from US influences and strategies. As such, it is the most profound economic repercussions stemming from paradox of European ambition: on one their support of US policy. In the situation of hand, it aims to untangle itself from the economic projects which were tied with the influence of Washington in international market for security – the largest EU states politics; and on the other hand, the put economic benefits above geopolitical effectiveness of its realization is to a very issues. An example is the construction of large extent reinforced by the institutions the northern gas pipeline11 or receiving the of the American order, or dependent on Chinese G5 technology12 despite opposition political support in Washington. from Washington and doing so even under the threat of sanctions from the side of the Nonetheless, the accentuation of US13. independence from the European side caused that the EU did not follow Over time, since the end of the Cold War, Washington in several of its geopolitical Paris and Berlin – and, therefore, Brussels initiatives. A manifestation of this – with a decreasing extent were treating phenomenon was evidenced in the policy the US as a steadfast geopolitical ally, and towards Iran, Russia and NATO (an increasingly frequently as an economic example being the reluctance of France rival. The alliance with Washington has and Germany to expand the alliance to been not once perceived as a geopolitical Georgia and Ukraine, to provide military encumbrance, potentially having adverse support to Ukraine, and to increase US economic repercussions. Unsurprisingly, presence in Central Europe9), as well as the US dispute with China pertaining to the 11 Report: US moves ahead of Nord Stream 2 South China Sea10. In all cases, the largest sanctions, EUobserver, March 11, 2019, https:// member states also worried about the euobserver.com/tickers/144372 [accessed on: 27.03.2019]. 12 Germany’s Huawei deal risks US intelligence 8 M. Smith, The EU, the US and the crisis of sharing, EUobserver, March 12, 2019, https:// contemporary multilateralism, p. 543. euobserver.com/tickers/1443728 [accessed on: 9 M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in response to 27.03.2019]. rising powers? China, Russia and EU-US relations, 13 Innym przypadkiem budzącym niepokój Journal of European Integration, 2018, vol. 40, no. administracji amerykańskiej był udział niektórych 5, p. 560. państw UE, m.in. Włoch, w chińskiej inicjatywie 10 S. Biscop, European Strategy in the 21st Century. nowego jedwabnego szlaku (ang. Belt and Road New Future for Old Power, Routledge, London – New Initiative). Por. D. Ghiglione, D. Sevastopulo, US York 2019, p. 40; M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in rebuke sparks Rome split on Chinese investment response to rising powers? p. 564. overtures, Financial Times, 7 March 2019, s. 1.

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel; European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini; and French President Emmanuel Macron pose for photographers during the arrivals for a 'Western Balkans Conference' at the chancellery in Berlin, GERMANY, APRIL 29, 2019. © Filip Singer (PAP/EPA)

therefore, the European dreams regarding but underwent reductions in Germany, the multipolar order was supported equally among other EU countries16. Even under in Moscow as in Beijing14. Both capitals had unprecedented pressure of the Trump their own geopolitical ambitions of rivalling administration on Berlin to increase Washington, and weakening transatlantic spending for this purpose, it again took the ties had essential importance to their decision to reduce it to 1.2 percent of GDP aspirations, as it decreased the possibilities by 2022 (NATO expects spending to be 2% of US influence. of GDP)17.

Russia A certain change in the approach of the EU According to researchers, after the end of took place after the beginning of the conflict the Cold War, Russia was not regarded in in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of western Europe as a threat to security15. Crimea by Russia. France and Germany For example, after the war in South Ossetia undertook negotiating with Russia in the in 2008, only the Baltic states and Poland form known as the Normandy Format, increased their defense spending. In the which was interestingly without the remainder of the EU, defense spending participation of EU representatives or other underwent further reductions. Spending member states. As a result of the shooting for this purpose increased again in Poland, of the passenger plane over Ukraine with Sweden and in the Baltic states after the a considerable group of European citizens aggression of Russia on eastern Ukraine on board, all member states (i.e. EU) put and the annexation of Crimea in 2015, sanctions on Russia. The deciding factor

14 Ławrow: Rosji zależy na silnej i niezależnej UE, PAP, February 16, 2019, https://www.pap.pl/swiat 16 Por. K. Schilde, European Military Capabilities: [accessed on: 27.02.2019]; Macron calls on China and Enablers and Constraints on EU Power? Journal of EU to strengthen multilateralism, Reuters, 26.03.2019, Common Market Studies, 2017, vol. 55, no 1, pp. 45-46. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-china- 17 J. Gotkowska, Budżet obronny Niemiec – słowa macron/ [accessed on: 27.03.2019]. zamiast pieniędzy [Germany’s defence budget – more 15 S. Biscop, European Strategy in the 21st Century, rhetoric than money], Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, p. 55. Analizy, May 23, 2018.

40 The Warsaw Institute Review The European Union in Relation to World Powers for taking this step was not so much the pressure from the side of the media as was the pressure from the American Western Europe clearly administration18. concedes or acquiesces in Despite that, Western Europe clearly disputes with Russia. concedes or acquiesces in disputes with Russia as evidenced by the projects aimed Russian conditions. In these changes, an at normalizing relations with the eastern improvement of mutual relations on the neighbor proposed by scholars and economic platform would be expected. A considered by political decision makers19. telling instance of such a policy was the They encourage stabilizing geopolitical construction of the northern gas pipeline relations with Moscow even at the expense “Nord Stream 2” at the same time when of an informal acceptance of Crimea’s the EU was putting sanctions on Moscow22. annexation and a commitment that Ukraine A seemingly schizophrenic behavior, will never become a member of the EU or nevertheless, gave a clear signal to the NATO. Kremlin that sanctions are transitional, and economic cooperation is strategic in nature. Another factor is the traditional high support for the normalization of relations To summarize, Western Europe, and herein with Russia in select EU states, traditionally the EU institutions, in recent years, do not in France, Italy and Hungary. Eurosceptic consider Russia to be a rival or a serious movements cooperating with and in part geopolitical threat; but rather a potential financed by Russia additionally create economic partner, and in the future, a likely political pressure for this type of change20. political partner. Moreover, efforts for strategic autonomy with regards to the US in European defense People’s Republic of China (PRC) policy leads to academic opinions of the The PRC was for many years treated as an necessity of normalizing geopolitical important economic partner, with whom relations with Russia21. cooperation brought benefits to the largest European exporters (mainly Germany). In the foreseeable future, the EU alone Therefore, European states favorably and its armed strength are not able to answered Chinese economic initiatives, replace NATO in the event of conflict even when it aroused the highest uneasiness with Russia. Therefore, decreasing the US from Washington. This was the case when presence in Europe must be preceded by the largest EU countries entered the Asian the arrangement of geopolitical relations Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as with the Kremlin, to a large extent on “founding states.” Nonetheless, towards the end of the second decade of the 21st century, 18 M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in response to the approach of the EU towards China rising powers? p. 560. began to undergo change. The European 19 S. Biscop, European Strategy in the 21st Century, p. 59. Commission described this state namely 20 A. Polyakova, Why Europe Is Right to Fear Putin’s as an economic competitor and systematic Useful Idiots, Foreign Policy, February 23, 2016, https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/23/why-europe- rival, which promotes an alternative model 23 is-right-to-fear-putins-useful-idiots/ [accessed on: for economic governance . 27.03.2019]. 22 21 J. Howorth, Strategic autonomy and EU-NATO M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in response to cooperation: threat or opportunity for transatlantic rising powers? p. 561. defence relations? Journal of European Integration, 23 EU – China – A strategic outlook, European 2018, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 523-537. Commission contribution to the European Council,

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Berlin and Paris found themselves in It appears that sharpening the course the vanguard of the protectionist course towards China resulted more from towards Beijing. They sharpened oversight economic factors rather than geopolitical and supervision over Chinese investments ones. in their countries, fearing largely the strategic technologies relevant to long-term Scholars acknowledge that the largest competition of domestic economies24. states and the EU itself are passive towards the PRC on the geopolitical Under the influence of both countries, the platform27. The aforementioned subjects European Commission also undertook did not treat Beijing as a political rival a more assertive stance. In 2019, it or a threat for security. Simultaneously, demanded from the PRC mutuality in the largest countries feared the economic economic relations, which includes the repercussions if they supported the US in equal treatment of European investors geopolitical disputes. This was occurring on the Chinese market, receiving the even when Beijing was not abiding by same treatment as domestic enterprises. international law, which was otherwise This concerns opening the market for very important in official EU rhetoric. It is investments from the EU, impeding pertinent to remember that China refused practices of forcing the transfer of to respect the rulings of the Arbitration technology to local cooperating parties and Tribunal from 2016, in the breaching the subsidization of Chinese exporters by the United Nations Convention on the Law of state. The Commission predicted tighter the Sea28. The reaction of the EU regarding control over Chinese investments on the Beijing’s stance was almost non-existent. EU’s internal market as well as the closing off access to the European market for public National governments geopolitically caved orders from Chinese enterprises, to the before China, attempting to leave sensitive similar extent that PRC will not contract matters for EU institutions (which include, tenders, on the basis of mutuality. The EU for example, PRC’s human rights record)29. intends to change the WTO regulations to At the same time, when the European limit protectionism in the PRC. Although Commission was criticizing China’s policy a few European states allowed the Chinese – which includes the growing investments G5 technology on their markets, the in Italy and the Western Balkans30 – the Commission would like to, in the future, French government was signing economic work out a common EU stance on this contracts with Xi Jinping worth 40 bln matter25. Paris, Berlin and Brussels were Euros31. also concerned with the infrastructure investments undertaken on the territory investments, Financial Times, March 13, 2019, p. 2. of the EU in context of the new Silk Road 27 J.E. Kirchner, T. Christiansen, H. Dorussen, EU China Security Cooperation in Context [in:] (The Belt and Road Initiative) which J.E. Kirchner, T. Christiansen, H. Dorussen (ed.), includes Greece, Portugal, Italy, Central Security Relations between China and the European European states and the Balkans26. Union: From Convergence to Cooperation? Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2016, pp. 1-18. European Commission, Brussels, March 12, 2019, p. 1. 28 M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in response to 24 J. Hanke, J. Barigazzi, EU accelerates moves to rising powers? p. 565-566. block China’s market access, Politico, March 19, 29 Por. A. Michalski, Europeanization of National 2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-accelerates- Foreign Policy: The Case of Denmark’s and Sweden’s moves-to-block-chinas-market-access/ [accessed on: Relations with China, Journal of Common Market March 27, 2019]. Studies, 2013, vol. 51, no. 5, p. 884–900. 25 EU – China – A strategic outlook, European 30 V. Hopkins, Brussels hits at China’s loan ‘pressure’ Commission contribution to the European Council. in bloc, Financial Times, March 6, 2019, p. 2. 26 M. Peel, J. Brunsden, Brussels warns Beijing on EU 31 A. Rettman, France takes Chinese billions despite

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The only exception to Europe’s geopolitical the stance of EU institutions and passiveness towards the Middle Kingdom external EU policy. Until recently, appears to be prompted by increasingly the EU was mainly interested in the far-reaching Chinese investment and promotion and defense of European political penetration in Central Europe economic interests in international and in the Balkans. This concerned the relations. In the geopolitical field, largest EU states, namely Germany. the concept of multipolarity as well The representatives of the European as strategic autonomy (from the US) Commission had expressed their concerns maintained fundamental importance. with this expansion in the European Occasionally, it was a narrative which “backyard”. In the documentation enabled the development of economic prepared at the summit of the European interests, the legitimization of economic Council, officials demanded larger unity of protectionism, or financing from member states with regard to the “16 +1” EU funds development of European format, respecting European norms and armaments. Scholars point to the limited values in the Western Balkans. This was scope of the European geopolitical pointed at Beijing’s ambitions of achieving strategy and the weakness of its technological supremacy in the armed implementation33. Not uncommonly, forces by 2050, which would create major economic interests were clear prioritized challenge for European security32. before the geopolitical interests. The fear of decision-makers was visible when it Despite this, it ought to be acknowledged came to the endangerment of European that European states and the EU itself business as a result of geopolitical deem China first and foremost to be an actions. Even if the European entities economic rival, and less so a geopolitical (in this case, leading EU member states rival. Member states in this matter controlling EU policy) – had increasing are deeply divided. Portugal, Greece, geopolitical ambitions, they were Hungary and increasingly Italy have intrinsically tied to their economic become the defenders of Chinese interests interests. It is possible to find only a few in the EU. These are the states that are exceptions to this rule (for example, in dispute with Brussels or those most sanctions placed on Russia after the affected by the Eurozone crisis. In this annexation of Crimea). European geo- way, European crises and political economics has thus been concentrated fractures in the EU are avidly exploited on the economy, which means that by Beijing to promote Chinese geo- instruments of foreign policy were economic interests. used to support this aim, and from assumption, geopolitical matters should Conclusion not collide with economic matters. In contemplating the EU approach to the largest great powers, one ought to Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse pay attention to the policies of France June 2019 and Germany, and periodically to that of other member states that influence

EU concerns, EUobserver, March 26, 2019, https:// euobserver.com/foreign/144499 [accessed on: 33 M. Riddervold, G. Rosén, Unified in response 27.03.2019]. to rising powers? p. 555; T.G. Grosse, Systemowe 32 EU – China – A strategic outlook, European uwarunkowania słabości polityki zagranicznej Unii Commission contribution to the European Council, Europejskiej, Studia Europejskie, 2010, nr 1 (53), pp. 2-4. p. 33-66.

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Franco-German Strategic Dissonance Krzysztof Rak, PhD From the outside, everything seems to be perfectly fine. Politicians hold solemn anniversary celebrations. On January 22, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel ceremonially renewed their vows from the Elysée Treaty. However, even an inattentive observer of European politics knows that there is nothing left of the famous “motor of EU integration” and that the leaders of both countries are not even able to agree on the general principles of a common strategy.

Generalities of the treaty to take their bilateral relations to the he new treaty was supposed to next level,” no new ideas have been symbolize a new beginning, put forward since then in addition to sending a signal that Paris what has already been repeated for and Berlin are still capable years. What is typical for the treaty is Tof serving as European directorate. its first article, under which “the two But upon taking a closer look at the countries shall deepen their cooperation provisions of the treaty, one could notice on European policy. They shall promote their conceptual emptiness. While the an effective and strong common two parties to the agreement declared foreign and security policy and shall in the preamble that “the time has come strengthen and deepen the Economic

44 The Warsaw Institute Review Franco-German Strategic Dissonance

© Friedemann Vogel (PAP/EPA) German Chancellor Angela Merkel (R) and French President Emmanuel Macron (L) sign a new Franco-German friendship treaty in Aachen, GERMANY, JANUARY 22, 2019. President Macron and Chancellor Merkel sign a new friendship treaty, intended to supplement the 1963 Elysee Treaty, pledging to provide deeper economic and defense ties and commitment to the EU.

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Macron’s struggle to survive Such an agreement is longed for by The systemic French President Emmanuel Macron who believes that any tilt in the current dysfunctionality of the EU policy will help him to solve the eurozone, which resulted problems confronted by his country. There is no doubt that his political in dividing the EU into future will much depend on whether he is capable of pushing through his debt-ridden and non- European ideas because his earlier attempts to bring about economic developing countries in and social reform ended in failure, as exemplified by yellow vest protests. the south on one side, This explains his consistency in calling on Germany to implement the said with France standing reforms as otherwise, he will be unable to put them in place. Macron’s general closer and closer to idea is to transfer more competencies them, and into creditor to the supranational level, burdening the EU institutions with problems that countries in the north on national governments are unable to cope with. Macron would, in particular, seek the other. to solve the problem of the systemic dysfunctionality of the eurozone, which and Monetary Union. They shall strive resulted in dividing the EU into debt- to complete the single market and work ridden and non-developing countries towards a competitive Union with a in the south on one side, with France strong industrial base as a foundation standing closer and closer to them, and for prosperity, promoting economic, into creditor countries in the north on fiscal and social convergence as well as the other with Germany as a leader, all sustainability in all its dimensions.” of which do quite well economically. Similar style and content are The crisis is manifested by the German characteristic for most of the remaining trade surplus, triggered to a great 27 articles. More detailed information extent by the European single currency. is contained in the chapter on security Following advice from economists policy, with the two countries agreeing who are not blinded by the dogmas of to strengthen Europe’s ability to act neoliberalism (e.g. Stiglitz), the French autonomously in the international arena. president would intend to prevent the Also, the ‘Franco-German Defence and split of the EU into creditors and debtors Security Council’ was established as a by creating a mechanism for massive joint political body. However, what is financial transfers redistributed from most important in the document is what rich countries (creditors) to the poor has not been included: a shared vision of ones (debtors) while transforming the the European Union, which could be an eurozone into a so-called transfer union. answer to its problems, among which are He therefore calls for establishing a the eurozone crisis or migration issues. common budget for the eurozone under And this simply means that France and the supervision of the EU Minister Germany have not reached agreement on of Finance (lecture at the Sorbonne, a joint strategy for European policy. September 2017).

46 The Warsaw Institute Review Franco-German Strategic Dissonance

Angela Merkel was more or less assertive One cannot help but get the impression in rejecting such proposals because she that Macron’s European policy comes did not imagine that Germany would down to a belief: more bureaucracy and spend tens of billions of euros every ideology, and the problems will solve year to subsidize the poor south. This themselves. prompted Macron to change his tactics. In his speeches, he no longer demands German game of wait and see money from the richest but seeks to Berlin would not at all have to respond intensify EU cooperation, making it to Paris’ minor and uncontroversial both centralized and bureaucratized by proposals, at least when it comes to setting up new supranational institutions. German interests. Also, it could try In doing so, he probably assumes that to keep it quiet, or at least declare its deepened political and institutional willingness to discuss the matter, in order cooperation will ultimately force Member to save face and dignity of the French States to increase their contribution to President. But new CDU leader Annegret the EU budget. This approach found Kramp-Karrenbauer (referred to by her its reflection in an article published initials AKK) responded to Macron’s call by President Macron at the beginning only a few days later in an article “Getting of March 2019 in major European Europe right”. newspapers, in which he called for a European Renaissance and blamed At first glance, it can be noticed that nationalists for all crises that plagued AKK made efforts to free the European Europe. Incidentally, Macron’s extremely discourse of ideology. Unlike Macron, ideological diagnosis seems absurd she did not reprimand nationalists in at first sight because these mythical an authoritative manner. Instead, she nationalists should be in consequence pointed to populists as opponents, found guilty of the decomposition of the although partially and indirectly eurozone and the migration crisis. The admitting they are right and claiming recipe for nationalists ‘ plots is to “build that “the forthcoming elections to the this renewal [of Europe] together around European Parliament cannot focus three ambitions: freedom, protection upon defending the imperfect status and progress,” by creating a number of quo of today’s EU against populist new European institutions, including accusations.” In the further part of her European Agency for the Protection of article, AKK rejected expresses verbis Democracies, European Asylum Office, European centralism, European statism, European Council for Internal Security, the communitarization of debts, the European Security Council, European Europeanisation of social systems, and Climate Bank, European Sanitary the minimum wage, thus both openly and Inspection and European Innovation decisively questioning Macron’s vision Council. It is noteworthy that most of and leaving virtually no room for a future these councils and offices already exist Franco-German compromise. Also, she yet bear slightly different names than dismissed amendments to the European those proposed by Macron (for instance, Treaties, suggesting “pro-European in what way would a European Council elites” and not societies to stand behind for Internal Security be different from the them. What is more, AKK broke with already-existing Justice and Home Affairs the current position of the CDU, as the Council?). Finally, the French leader party sought to find a recipe for EU suggested setting up a Conference for crises in subsequent attempts to deepen Europe in order to draft a new EU treaty. integration processes under the slogan of

2/2019 47 European Union © Wiktor Dąbkowski (PAP) Germany, Frankfurt July 2, 2009. Symbol of the Euro currency before the European Central Bank.

“more Europe!” The vision laid out by the effort of national governments. A new new CDU chief conveys tough realism Europe cannot be founded without the that has long not resonated in German nation states: they provide democratic politics. It is worth recalling what AKK legitimacy and identification. It is the said in her most famous statement: “There Member States that formulate and is no version of a European super state bring together their own interests at which can live up to the goal of a Europe the European level. This is what gives made up of sovereign Member States, Europeans their international weight. and able to take action. The work of the Europe must focus on subsidiarity and European institutions cannot claim any the individual responsibility of the nation moral superiority over the collaborative states, and at the same time be capable of

48 The Warsaw Institute Review Franco-German Strategic Dissonance acting in the common interest. Our Europe against those politicians who would should therefore stand on two equal engage in difficult and painful changes. pillars: the Intergovernmental method So, Macron has no other solution than and the Community method. We should, to acknowledge the status quo, give up simultaneously, also take long overdue politics and focus on his own image, decisions, and abolish anachronisms. The which is what he seems to do best. This latter include the European Parliament’s is why he will probably not make any concentration on Brussels and the efforts to face up to the excessive power taxation of the income of EU officials.” of Germany as the significant decades- long challenge for the European policy Undoubtedly, European realism in of France. It is recalled that European AKK’s views is a virtue, yet her article integration, followed by Elysée treaties, contains no proposal on how to tackle was meant to grant Paris control over the eurozone crisis, referred to as the the Bonn Republic as the latter was most critical European issue. And this is at the time becoming stronger and its fundamental weakness. Economists stronger. After de Gaulle’s methods seem to agree that the eurozone will proved no longer effective in the 1970s, not become an optimal currency area the French decided to balance German in the near future. And if so, one of two influence in Europe by giving the go- possible solutions needs to be adopted ahead for the United Kingdom’s joining in order to avoid a meltdown along European Communities. In the 1990s, with all its unpredictable consequences: soon after the reunification of Germany, create a transfer union, as it was laid they replaced the Deutsche mark with out by Macron, or lead to a controlled the euro in a bid to diminish Germany’s decomposition of the eurozone, for power. In doing so, Paris strove to instance by splitting it into two currency solve the problem of Berlin’s excessive areas, with one bringing together wealthy superpower by adopting two methods: creditors and another reserved for poor linking the two countries together debtors. So, unlike Macron, AKK does with political and economic bonds or, not put forward any ideas on how to save although less often, by trying to create Europe from an economic slump. a proper balance of power in Europe. Once adopted nowadays, these methods What’s next? prove no longer valid because France has AKK’s response to Macron’s proposals, established strong ties with its eastern although relatively mild and diplomatic, partner while being unable to break leaves little doubt that France and free of its grip – so strong that France Germany will shortly fail to reach a does not even make attempts to balance compromise regarding fundamental between European countries. And yet issues on Europe’s fate. it could balance German influence by building strong ties with Washington – This, in turn, is very bad news for especially after Trump had abandoned Macron who fell into a political trap. the “leadership partnership” policy with He is today too weak to carry out a bold Berlin – with the indebted countries autonomous reform that would increase in the southern part of the eurozone, the competitiveness of the French becoming their natural leader in the economy while reducing the social fight against the German trade surplus, costs of the French welfare state. French or at least revitalize the traditional society does not want reforms and is alliance with Central European ready to take quasi-revolutionary steps countries.

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this manner, Germany’s policy will be backed by other creditor countries that The biggest mine benefit from the eurozone crisis. And paradoxically, maintaining the current remaining under the EU status quo suits also the ruling elites of is the single currency; the debt-ridden countries in the south. Courageous and socially painful reforms the eurozone has never will put an end to their power provided that the democratic rules of the game are been and still is not an observed. optimum currency area. Among those that reaped substantial benefits from the current eurozone If this all seems so obvious, why does meltdown are the new EU Member not the French leader introduce these States that have not adopted the euro. solutions? It is noteworthy that one of The single currency certainly impedes Macron’s predecessors, Nicolas Sarkozy, to a great extent the development theoretically had such an option but and prosperity of southern European failed to grasp an opportunity. This case countries. Incidentally, some economists indicates rather a systemic cause. France claim that it slows down the pace of is making no bids to balance Germany’s the economic growth of Germany and influence not because it has unreasonable all countries referred to as creditors and blind politicians but because it (Hans Werner Sinn). And this means simply cannot do so. It fell victims of that, thanks to the systemic euro crisis, its own policy, binding Germany and countries such as Poland and the Czech France to that extent that the strength Republic will more promptly reach the of these ties gave Berlin control over average limit of the EU GDP. a weak France and not the other way around. Complicated plans often lead to Almost everyone holds an interest in counterproductive effects. And that is maintaining the status quo. This stems precisely what happened to the eurozone. from an opportunistic approach of the When Mitterrand forced the introduction European political class whose members of the euro upon Kohl, he intended to may be deprived of their authority once limit the growing influence of the united changes take place. But this state of Germany. In consequence, the German affairs will not last forever. The causes economy holds today a hegemonic of the crises afflicting Europe have not position in Europe, as exemplified by its yet been eliminated. The biggest mine persistent trade surplus. remaining under the EU is the single currency; the eurozone has never been Hence it is hardly surprising that and still is not an optimum currency Germany’s political elites strongly area. Accordingly, the business cycle will dismiss Paris’s risky reform ideas. It is sooner or later lead to a Europe-wide in their interest to maintain the status meltdown, bringing about unpredictable quo for as long as possible because consequences. But European politicians they have comfortable conditions have broken thermometers and are now for governing the country and pretending that everything is fine. administer a balanced budget. From their perspective, any change will be a Krzysztof Rak change for the worse. Once pursued in May 2019

50 The Warsaw Institute Review Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland Daniel Pogorzelski On June 4th, 2014, President Barack Obama opened his speech in Warsaw commemorating the twenty-fifth Anniversary of Freedom Day by talking about the Polish spirit which pervades his adopted hometown of Chicago: In Chicago, we think of ourselves as a little piece of Poland. In some neighborhoods, you only hear Polish. The faithful come together at churches like Saint Stanislaus Kostka. We have a parade for Polish Constitution Day. And every summer, we celebrate the Taste of Polonia, with our kielbasa and pierogies, and we’re all a little bit Polish for that day. So being here with you, it feels like home.

raise from politicians should scope of Poles’ imprint on the cultural be met with skepticism, landscape of Chicago. For those particularly by those hailing outside of the city, it can be difficult from a place like Chicago to ascertain how this longstanding Pwhere elected officials are well-known presence of Poles in the metropolitan for their gift of gab. However, President area has found its way into the most Obama was not exaggerating about the unexpected places.

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© Radek Pietruszka (PAP) Chicago, United States May 19, 2018. President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda with his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda during a meeting with representatives of the Polish community at Millenium Park in Chicago. The Polish presidential couple ends their several-day visit to the USA.

Poles Everywhere located in Auburn-Gresham, a South Side Saint Sabina Roman Catholic Church is a neighborhood which is over ninety-five sanctuary of Chicago’s African-American percent African-American. The pastor, Catholic Community. The parish is Michael Pfleger, who served as the model for John Cusack’s character in the Spike Lee film “Chiraq,” campaigned for What makes Chicago President Obama during his bid for the US Presidency in 2008. Yet even here in unique is the immense the cultural center of African-American Chicago, the visitor cannot miss the work size of the Polish of local artist Jerzy Kenar, a sculptor who works with wood. His career began community at large, with the creation of a wooden throne for Pope John Paul II’s visit to Chicago with an estimated nine in 1979. Mr. Kenar’s work can be found all over the city, including prominent hundred thousand locations like the International Terminal at O’Hare Airport, and the city’s flagship inhabitants tracing their Harold Washington Library downtown. The artist’s surname is recognizable roots back to Poland. to any Pole knowledgeable about their

52 The Warsaw Institute Review Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland homeland’s art history. One of Poland’s before there was a Chicago,” referring to most prestigious art schools is located the first Polish migrants who came to the in Zakopane, the cultural capital of settlement before its formal incorporation Poland’s highlands, named after Jerzy’s in 1837. From the very beginning, there relative, Antoni Kenar. Other expatriates was a contingent of Polish political from the highlands have found a home refugees and activists who built their new eight miles west of Saint Sabina in the lives in Chicago. Pushed out of Europe suburb of Summit. This is the seat of the as a result of the November Uprising, Tatra Mountain Cultural Foundation, one of the many failed bids for Polish where Polish Highlanders have formed a independence during the partition era, community in the Chicago Southland. two hundred thirty-four insurrectionists departed Trieste in November 1833, Multiethnic fusions are typical of a reaching New York City in early 1834. cosmopolitan global city like Chicago, This group had hoped to settle together where diverse people live in close on a land grant in Northern Illinois, but proximity to each other. What makes the effort failed. Historian James Lodesky Chicago unique is the immense size counts that at least thirty-five of these of the Polish community at large, with Polish insurrectionists made their way to an estimated nine hundred thousand Chicago before 1850. Some of these Polish inhabitants tracing their roots back to pioneers would even vote in Chicago’s Poland. It’s no surprise that Chicago’s first mayoral election in 1837. first Sister City was Warsaw. With the placement of “Polish Patches” scattered A Polish Downtown amongst a metropolitan area that spans Today, Poles and Polish-Americans three states, the Polish presence in are found all over the Chicago this region has led to some fascinating region. Historically, there were five cultural syntheses. Among these are concentrations of initial settlement murals depicting Frida Kahlo in Polish for Poles migrating to the city in the folk costume and designs which blend 19th century. One of these areas is a Polish and Latin American papercutting neighborhood which came to be called traditions, guava-flavored pączki, “Chicago’s Polish Downtown.” This restaurants serving Polish-Korean district would become in the words cuisine, annual performances of Japanese of Victoria Granacki the place where Taiko drumming on the Polish Triangle, “nearly all Polish undertakings of any or an African-American woman who consequence in the U.S. during that time together with her Polish husband run either started or were directed from this one of Chicago’s premiere Theater venues part of Chicago’s near northwest side.” which doubles as a nexus for Polish John Joseph Parot in his book Polish cultural gatherings. These are just a American Catholics in Chicago writes handful of examples illustrating how eloquently about the Polish Downtown’s Polish folkways and customs have woven transition from a rural outpost to the themselves into the fabric of the city in vibrant capital of Polish America: intriguing ways. Schermann’s property and surrounding There were Poles here before environment must have reminded him of there was a Chicago many Polish farming communities. From Prideful Poles wishing to highlight the the still undeveloped and sparsely settled community’s long history in the city may prairie on the outskirts of ante-bellum joke that “there have been Poles here Chicago, he could see nothing but grassland

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stretching westward to the horizon. East A city of Polish Cathedrals of his land stood a thickly wooded area One of the striking contributions of guarding both the both banks of the nearby Poles and Polish-Americans to the built North Branch of the Chicago River which environment of the Chicago Metropolitan swung noose like around Goose Island. Area are the ornate churches that these The virgin land between Schermann’s immigrants constructed. The elegant settlement and the river was populated spires, steeples, and domes built by Poles at the time only by chickens and cattle are prominent landmarks for drivers belonging to neighboring farms; fifty along the Kennedy Expressway. This years later this same land would support interstate highway, running parallel to the highest population density in the the Milwaukee Avenue corridor which city-more than 450 Polish immigrants on historically anchored Northwest Chicago’s each acre of land, packed into tenement Poles, is a great way to quickly survey some houses. But in the 1850s Schermann’s of the best examples of sacred architecture rural outpost was a picture of serenity. His in the city. only outlet was Plank Road, a clumsily built highway actually constructed Poles immigrating to Chicago were from wooden planks- a far cry from the followers of several distinct religious bustling commercial thoroughfare later traditions including Judaism, called Milwaukee Avenue along which Lutheranism, Eastern Orthodoxy, and Polish merchants in the 1920s built their various other Protestant denominations. own “Polish Downtown.” Schermann’s However, the vast majority were devout closest neighbors were other Polish Roman Catholics. Their numbers, coupled settlers, perhaps landless tenant farmers, with the clear nationalist leanings of the numbering approximately thirty families Resurrectionist religious order which during the American Civil War. founded many of the Polish parishes in the Archdiocese of Chicago, led to a All over the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid wealth of religious structures which people Atlantic, as well as New England regions admire to the present day. Over twenty of the United States, one can find Polish churches in Chicago and its suburbs were enclaves referred to as “Poletown”, constructed in a style popularly referred “Little Warsaw”, “Polish Village”, or to as the “Polish Cathedral style,” brought even “ ‘Ski Town.” However, Chicago together not by the language of exterior alone has a neighborhood designated as architectural style, but by their largely “Polish Downtown”, a reflection of the consistent interior décor. Often built in prominence and prestige conferred upon an eclectic style, with elements of baroque this nook of Polish America. Centered on and renaissance motifs predominating Polonia Triangle, a triangular park at the in a nod to the heyday of Polish intersection of three major streets, the grandeur during the Polish-Lithuanian headquarters of nearly every significant Commonwealth. Polish organization in the United States had their headquarters within a half- As with other immigrant groups, mile of the triangle. Nearly half of the religious communities were an anchor population of Poles in Chicago lived in the that helped people acclimate to their new vicinity Polish Downtown in 1890. Little surroundings and eventually assimilate. wonder that historian Edward Kantowicz In the Catholic context, churches would write that “Polish Downtown was became centers of social integration to Chicago Poles what the Lower East and interaction with many of the other Side was to New York’s Jews.” ethnic groups who called the city home.

54 The Warsaw Institute Review Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland

Chicago, United States, May 19, 2018. President of the Republic of Poland © Photoshot (PAP) Andrzej Duda, and his wife, Agata Kornhauser-Duda, meeting with representatives of the Polish community.

At a time before the creation of the social pressure release for the people of the safety net in the United States during overpopulated and largely underdeveloped the Great Depression in the 1930s, the Polish lands in the late nineteenth and Polish Roman Catholic parish network early twentieth centuries. After Hitler’s in Chicago created a unique system invasion of Poland in 1939, some one akin to Scandinavian socialism with a hundred fifty thousand Poles would create robust system of cradle to grave care for a new life in Chicago over the next two adherents. The first Catholic retirement decades. The home of Polish American home in Chicago was founded by Poles in Congress Founder Charles Rozmarek 1894 and continues into the present day reputedly housed thousands of Poles over as St. Joseph’s Village in Avondale, and the span of nearly a half century. After the the current Catholic health care system Soviets installed the Communist regime in traces its origins in part to hospitals the aftermath of World War II, dissidents founded by Polish nuns. and rebels opposing the government continued coming to Chicago. This wave A safe haven and a bastion of would crest following the rise of the activism Solidarity movement and the subsequent The role of Chicago as a haven for declaration of martial law in the 1980s Polish people during their turbulent which brought large numbers of new history contributed to the growth of the Polish immigrants with them. community over successive generations. Poles immigrated to Chicago after the Parallel to this was Chicago’s role as a January Uprising collapsed in 1864. The hotbed for agitation during Poland’s many pediment of Saint John Cantius Roman fights for freedom. The city played an Catholic Church and the logo of the Polish outsize role in Poland’s successful bid for National Alliance both bear the coat of independence following the first World arms of these insurrectionists. Chicago’s War, when a sizable number of Chicagoans booming economy was a magnet and joined a military force funded by pianist

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Americans on the screen in films such as Call Northside 777, The Fugitive, The The children of Polish Breakup, or the recently released Widows. immigrants in Chicago This dynamic also works the other way, where Polish-American characters have have risen to prominence their ethnic background changed as the on the municipal, state, setting is moved away from Chicago. The film Grease, which was filmed the national, and even Venice neighborhood of Los Angeles is an example. The original musical was international stage. based on the teenage recollections of the author who attended Taft High School Ignace Paderewski which became the on Chicago’s Northwest Side. The female nucleus for the future Polish army that lead character in the original was Polish- would later defend the nascent Polish state. American Sandy Dumbrowski. This role There were five offices scattered across was ethnically altered into the Australian the city to draft soldiers into what came Sandy Olsson when the piece was to called the “Blue Army” led by General reworked for film, with the creative team Haller. Nearly five hundred boys from the evidently deciding that the Polish origin parish of St. Hyacinth alone fought during needed to be jettisoned in their retelling. the first World War in support of the Polish cause. Chicago’s sizeable Polish community was also something that captured the During the Second World War, Polish imagination of street photographer Vivian organizations came together first for Maier. Maier captured images of elderly war relief and then subsequently formed people gathering at Polonia Triangle and the Polish American Congress. This immigrants congregating in Chicago’s organization would play a key role in the Polish Village along Milwaukee Avenue. successful effort to topple the Communist She even visited Polish film screenings government in Warsaw. It was this vitality in Avondale’s Milford Theater which that brought Pope John Paul II to visit was known by locals at that time as the Chicago in October of 1979, where he “Cinema Polski.” met with the local Polish community, thus keeping up the pressure in his Where us leaders come to confrontation with his native country’s practice their polish undemocratic leadership. The first movie palace in the city designed exclusively for sound cinema was The Polish touch purchased by Chicago’s Polish community The uniquely Polish aura in Chicago in the 1970s. The exterior was modified to when compared with other American resemble the exterior of the Royal Castle in cities has lent itself to utilizing Polishness Warsaw, with the newly constructed spire in literature, stage, film, and music as a visible from the Kennedy Expressway, way of highlighting the Chicagoness of a serving as a symbol of pride to commuters composition. Songs like Casimir Pulaski traveling between Chicago’s city center Day by Sufjan Stevens and Pulaski at and O’Hare airport. Christened as the Night by Andrew Bird are examples of Copernicus Foundation, the Polish this phenomenon. This trait is also visible cultural and civic center is home to Taste in cinema, with actors playing Polish- of Polonia, the largest ethnic celebration in

56 The Warsaw Institute Review Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland the City of Chicago with upwards of forty mandate to install flight recorders on thousand attending during the four-day all commercial flights, as well as the US long festivities. Presidents George H.W. congressional investigation into the Katyń Bush and Barack Obama, Vice President Forest Massacre. House Ways and Means Dick Cheney, Second Lady Tipper Gore, Committee Chair Congressman Daniel and Speaker Newt Gingrich have all Rostenkowski controlled the finances of visited the Copernicus Center during the US House of Representatives, making the festival to show their affection for the him the second most powerful figure in Polish community in the United States. Congress after the Speaker of the House during his tenure in the 1980s. Native sons The children of Polish immigrants in A dynamic community Chicago have risen to prominence on Statistics help to illustrate how active the the municipal, state, national, and even Polish diaspora is with promulgating their international stage. Writers such as native traditions. As of this writing, there Stuart Dybek and John Guzlowski have are forty-seven Polish language Saturday captured the imagination of readers, schools teaching over fifteen hundred channeling their singular experiences students. Two FM and three AM stations of growing up Polish-American in broadcast Polish language programming. Chicago. Ray Manzarek helped propel the There is Polvision TV. The Polish Scouting rock band The Doors to stardom as the Organization Harcerstwo has around artistic foil to the grit of the band’s iconic five hundred members imparting Polish frontman Jim Morrison. Photographer cultural traditions to young Polish Victor Skrebneski, painter Ed Paschke, Americans. There are a plethora of sculptor Stanislav Szukalski all came into Polish language publications, including prominence as part of Chicago’s art scene. daily, weekly, and monthly newspapers, Historian Dominic Pacyga has written in addition to a number of different several seminal books covering Chicago, magazines as well as a phone book lectured as a visiting scholar at Campion advertising the many Polish businesses Hall in Oxford, and was a Fulbright and services throughout the Chicago area. Scholar at the prestigious Jagiellonian University. Just scratching the surface The scope of this work and the medium The same exceptional trajectory was of its delivery demands brevity for a topic also true for the sons of Poland who that has been the subject of lengthy works entered politics. There was a time on much narrower aspects of this subject. in the 1960s and ‘70s when nearly a Numerous links that tie Poland to the quarter of the Chicago City Council United States all run through Chicago, was of Polish descent. The Illinois which have lent the city an unmistakable congressional delegation included names streak of Polishness, are evident upon like Derwinski, Kluczynski, Pucinski, further reflection. It is my hope that and Rostenkowski, a tradition continued this overview will spark the reader to by Congressman Dan Lipinski into the investigate these topics for themselves in present day. Congressman Kluczynski a place so intricately intertwined with the is remembered with a forty-five-story history of both Poland and the United skyscraper designed by Mies van der Rohe States. housing Federal government offices in downtown Chicago. Congressman Roman Daniel Pogorzelski Pucinski was responsible for the Federal May 2019

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A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts Witold Repetowicz Processes taking place in the Middle East cannot be explained by drawing one line separating two hostile camps as it was in the case of the Cold War between the Free World headed by the US, and the USSR bloc. The political reality of the Middle East consists of many conflicts, and the interrelationships can best be demonstrated by drawing a spiderweb.

he fact that two countries façade of hostility, or lack of diplomatic share common interests and relations, can mask an actual alliance are considered to be allies does (e.g., Saudi-Israeli relations). not exclude the connection Tof one of them with an enemy of the The harm of simplifications other (e.g., relations in the Russia-Iran- related to the Middle East Israel triangle). It also happens that the At present, the main regional state official alliance can simply be a game actors in the Middle East are Iran, Israel, of appearances, behind which there Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser is hidden competition (e.g., relations extent, also the United Arab Emirates between Russia and Iran), while the and Qatar. Egypt, despite its military and

58 The Warsaw Institute Review A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts

A Yemeni pro-government soldier patrols at a position as the © Najeeb Almahboobi (PAP/EPA) Houthi rebels begin a unilateral withdrawal from two strategic ports in the war-torn city of al-Hodeidah, Yemen, May 11, 2019. demographic potential, plays a smaller role in these competitions, in part due The external actors are to its structural problems and financial dependence on the richer countries of the primarily three large region. Furthermore, the independent role of Jordan in the Middle East superpowers: the US, competition is considerably smaller, and Russia, and China, with the significance of this state rather stems from the fact that it remains the key and the latter being less visible the most reliable ally of the United States and Great Britain in the region. Iraq, once than the first two. one of the most powerful countries in the region, is slowly beginning to stand on its than the first two. Regional rivalries, own feet, although internal problems still however, do not follow the pattern limit the possibility of outward use of its determined by the clash of global power potential. interests, and some countries consider both Russia and the US as their allies The external actors are primarily three (e.g., Saudi Arabia and Israel), and large superpowers: the US, Russia, and even both the US and Iran (e.g., Iraq). China, with the latter being less visible European countries, especially Great

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deception of the conflict in Syria in the first years of its existence. It was then None of these answers, understood to have been brought about to fight for those who wanted the freedom of however, explain all “moderate rebels” against a bad dictator. The fact that there is even another force, conflicts and problems, i.e., branches of Syrian Kurds, was usually neglected at least until the end of 2014, and the use of any because of the notion that talking about simplifications does not them was an unnecessary complication of the image, and the cantons of Rojava make it easier, but rather created by them already in 2012 were an ephemera that would disappear quickly. makes it even more However, it turned out completely different, and Rojava, or West Kurdistan, difficult to understand developed into the existing Autonomous Administration of North-Eastern Syria, what is happening in the covering all areas controlled by the Syrian Middle East. Democratic Forces (SDF). Britain and France, play a smaller but In fact, to describe what is happening nonetheless important role, which a in the Middle East, we must distinguish hundred years ago divided the Middle several autonomous conflicts, i.e. the East into several spheres of influence. regional Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the That picture, as far as state entities are Yemen war primarily within it, the concerned, is complemented by Germany, Iran-Israel conflict, the war in Syria, the whose role is largely passive and is a problem of Islamic State, Al Qaida and derivative of German-Turkish ties. the Muslim Brotherhood, the isolation of Non-state actors also play an important Qatar, and the Kurdish and Palestinian role, especially cross-border Islamic problems. Geopolitical interests overlap, organizations such as the Islamic State, Al in particular, related to trade in energy Qaeda, and the Muslim Brotherhood. raw materials, such as oil and gas, as well as religious and ideological conflicts It is tempting to point out one key to (sometimes undervalued and sometimes the entire Middle Eastern conundrum overestimated). One cannot ignore the of alliances, problems, and conflicts, problem of democracy in the Middle East, bringing the whole puzzle into a simple although talking about it often provokes answer for the question of “what is going ridicule from people who are convinced on?” Such answers are given. Some point that in this region one can only rule out that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a firm hand and that democracy is crucial; others bring everything to is only the West’s excuse to intervene. oil, and others to the religious war Disregarding this problem in the name of between Shias and Sunnis. None of these realpolitik, however, leads to conclusions answers, however, explain all conflicts that fuel the Middle Eastern tragedy, and problems, and the use of any failing to solve any problems, and often simplifications does not make it easier, creating new ones permanently. On the but rather makes it even more difficult other hand, democracy in the Middle to understand what is happening in the East is often like a grenade that can easily Middle East. An example may be the explode in one’s hand.

60 The Warsaw Institute Review A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts

Syrian Kurdish boys look through a destroyed building in Kobanî © Ahmed Mardnli (PAP/EPA) (also called Ayn al-Arab), the Kurdish region in the Aleppo Governorate in northern Syria, April 26, 2019.

Another problem is terrorism, and in “fitnah,” or the sectarian war between particular, its understanding. After Shias and Sunnis. However, albeit this all, in 2001, after the attack on the is a far-reaching simplification, it is WTC, President George Bush began impossible to abstain from this aspect intervention in the region under the completely. Saudi Arabia is not only so slogan of the global war on terror. In the much a Sunni state, as it was created Middle East, however, the saying “one on the Wahabi ideological foundation, man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom and the problem of exporting this fighter” works well, and is perfectly extremist ideology is crucial for illustrated by the Israeli leaders (fighting understanding many problems not only Palestinian organizations like Hamas) in the Middle East but also around the and Turkey (leading a decades-long war world, including Europe. Wahhabism is with the Kurdish PKK) mutually labelling inextricably linked to Saudi statehood their opponents as criminal and their from its beginnings in the middle of the activity as genocides. Terrorism, however, 18th century. One of the Arab emirs, is only a tool, not a spontaneous problem. Muhammad ibn Saud, made a pact with radical Islamic reformer Muhammad ibn A shadow of Wahhabism over Wahab. Its effect was the creation of the the Arabian Peninsula first Saudi state, in which Wahhabism The most important contention became the obligatory version of Islam. destabilizing the Middle East is currently This ideology rejected the Muslim the Saudi-Iranian regional competition, tradition and strives to restore the Islamic which is often reduced to the so-called rule prevailing in the seventh century and

2/2019 61 Geopolitics © Sergei Chirikov (PAP/EPA) Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands during their meeting in the Black sea resort of Sochi, Russia, February 14, 2019.

prohibiting everything contradictory to the interests that the ruler of the new its restrictively understood monotheism. kingdom and his successors began to The consequence was that in this point engage with the “infidel” West, which of view it categorizes many Muslims, in is why the Saudi rulers had to take particular, Shias, as apostates of ‘faith,’ care of their Wahabi followers. Hence, and therefore ‘unfaithful,’ meriting the they established a Ministry of Islamic most severe punishments. The first Saudi Affairs, which became a fiefdom of the state was thus not much different from family of ibn Wahhab. The Ministry, the modern Islamic State, which sought into which income largely flows from to murder all Shias. In 1801, the Saudis the sale of oil, undertook the export of burned one of the most sacred Shia Wahhabism, including to the western places - the mausoleum of Imam Hussein world. These were particularly intense in Iraqi Karbala, murdering almost all during the reign of King Fahd (1982- residents of the city. Thirteen years later, 2005), who allocated 75 billion dollars for the Ottoman penal expedition captured the export of Wahhabism. The effect of the last ruler of the first Saudi state, who this policy was violent radicalization in was beheaded in Istanbul. the Muslim world, which was indirectly paradoxically financed by the West. In During the First World War, the British this way, Al Qaeda was also established, made a pact with the descendant of which entered into conflict with the Saudi Muhammad ibn Saud, Abdulaziz, kingdom but maintained some contacts so that in 1932 he reconstructed the with the Ministry of Islamic Affairs. This Saudi state, in which Wahhabism was was confirmed by the Congress’s report once again instated. Radical ideology on the WTC attacks, which indicated was not very much in harmony with that the perpetrators (almost all Saudi

62 The Warsaw Institute Review A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts citizens) received financial support from some of the high-ranking Saudi officials and members of the royal family. Of Saudi Arabia is the main course, almost all of which were Saudis. partner of Russia in the The Wahabis have never changed their attitude to the Shias, who make up at OPEC + format and least 15% of the Saudi Arabian population arrangements for global and are persecuted in this country. A similar situation exists in the ruling oil extraction in order to Royal family of Bahrain, in which the Shias constitute the overwhelming shape prices of this raw majority of the population, but moreover this country had belonged to Iran in the material. past. When, in 2011, the so-called Arab Spring erupted, the Shia in Saudi Arabia from Iraq and Syria. This would affect and Bahrain also joined the protests. the transit position of Turkey and would However, the protests were quickly and be an alternative to Russian supplies grimly suppressed, and in Bahrain, the of these raw materials to Europe. This Saudi army simply conducted military would be part of the new Chinese “silk intervention, turning the country into road” project. Thus, it determines the a de facto protectorate. The Saudis also naturalness of the Sino-Iranian and, to accused Iran of being behind the protests, some extent, Euro-Iranian cooperation, and as a result of the antipathy towards as well as the unnatural character of Iran, the West turned a blind eye to the the “alliance” in the Iran-Turkey-Russia applied methods of dealing with the Shia. triangle, which develops in the so-called Meanwhile, Iran has indeed taken up the ‘Astana format’. use of Shia communities in the Arabian Peninsula for the implementation of its The Iranian-Russian alliance is purely great geopolitical project i.e., the Shia tactical because both countries have no crescent. common interests in the geopolitical dimension. In particular, this applies to Shia crescent Syria, where Russia is only seemingly The notion of the Shia crescent is based on the same side as Iran. It is equally on the assumption of a close alliance of uninterested in building a land Iran, dominated by Shias in Iraq, Syria connection between Iran and Lebanon ruled by Assad, dominated by the Shia as Israel and Saudi Arabia, and therefore Hezbollah of Lebanon, and controlled does not actively attempt to discourage by the Shia-Yazidi Houthis in Yemen. In Israel from raiding Iranian positions this way, Iran would gain land access to in Syria. Moreover, Russian-Israeli the Mediterranean and also control two relations are intense, as are the Russian- key straits, i.e., Hormuz (exiting from Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia is the the Persian Gulf) and Bab al-Mandab, main partner of Russia in the OPEC + which is the gate leading through the Red format and arrangements for global oil Sea to the Suez Canal. By marking a land extraction in order to shape prices of this route to the Lebanese port of Tripoli, Iran raw material. These relations likewise could intensify its trade with Europe. In provoke Iran’s frustration. Also, it does particular, this would apply to oil and not change the fact that Israel and Saudi gas exports, not only from Iran but also Arabia are key US allies in the region. The

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link of the Shia crescent, i.e., weaken Iraqi-Iranian relations and strengthen Already concurrently, Saudi-Iraqi relations by referring to the collective Arab identity. Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Arab states, the United Arab Emirates also have an advantage over Iran when it comes to the except for Qatar, are ability to invest in Iraq, which after the trying to normalize their war with the Islamic State, it needs very much. A similar pattern of action can relations with Damascus, also be applied in Syria as well. using, inter alia, the Already concurrently, the Sunni Arab states, except for Qatar, are trying to intermediation of Russia. normalize their relations with Damascus, using, inter alia, the intermediation of Russia is also interested in Russia. Russia is also interested in this because it alone has no means to rebuild this because it alone has Syria and does not want to allow China to no means to rebuild Syria undertake such an opportunity, because it would be a dangerous competitor in and does not want to this area. allow China to undertake Iraq and Yemen: Saudi-Iranian rivalry such an opportunity, Iraqis are strongly divided in relation to Iran and Saudi Arabia. On the one hand, because it would be a even many Shias do not accept Iran’s disproportionate influence in Iraq. On the dangerous competitor in other hand, they remember that the Sunni Arab states, namely Saudi Arabia and this area. Qatar, have contributed to destabilizing increasingly strengthening relations of Iraq after 2003 in supporting the sectarian both these countries with Russia, which resentment of the Sunni minority towards are also a derivative of the fears of an the Shia majority, and that Iran helped isolationist turn in US politics, awaken Iraq to fight the Islamic State. Currently, concern among Americans. Iran’s main ally in Iraq is the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) created based The project of the Shia crescent is not on Shia militia, which is evolving towards about the export of the Shia Islamic a similar role in Iraq as the Revolutionary revolution. Such an idea existed after the Guardian Corps (Pasdaran) in Iran. Iran creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran has two priorities in Iraq: on the one in 1979, but currently, Iran’s Shia support hand, stabilization, whilst also preventing stems rather from the fact that they the over-strengthening of Iraq, because are their natural proxy in the ongoing it could lead to the regional rivalry of surrogate confrontations with Saudi the country with Iran; and in balancing Arabia. Iran operates here in the Arab on the other hand, the ensuring of world while it is itself a non-Arab state. the dominant role of Shias. Iran takes This card is being used in this conflict advantage of the fact that for Arab Shias by Saudi Arabia, trying to break the key in Iraq, the Arab identity is not very

64 The Warsaw Institute Review A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts © Jakub Kamiński (PAP) Warsaw, February 13, 2019. Family photo of heads of delegations at the Royal Castle in Warsaw.A ministerial meeting in Warsaw was organized jointly by Poland and the United States on peace and security in the Middle East. important. However, in being pragmatic, Nevertheless, the actual main arena of it also tries to find allies among Kurds Saudi-Iranian rivalry is currently in and Iraqi Sunnis. Meanwhile, the policy Yemen, where a war is fought between of Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab the Houthis, supported by Iran, and states towards Iraq was based on three the legally-recognized government of core characteristics: not allowing the Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, supported prevalence of the Shia regime in Iraq, militarily by the Sunni coalition with preventing the Iraqi regional potential Saudi Arabia and the United Arab from being restored, and disallowing the Emirates. Yemen’s puzzle is additionally construction of a stable democracy in that complicated by the activity of Al Qaeda country. and Islamic State in the south of this country as well as the active separatism The emergence of a stable democracy in of the south, which in the past was a a strong, 40-million state, in addition separate state with the capital in Aden. to being dominated by Shias, would A contributing cause of the Yemeni be a nightmare for Sunni monarchies conflict was the swinging of the local because it would give a “fatal” example Koranic schools, which has been ongoing to the citizens of these countries. In 2016, since the 1980s, in part due to the layout notwithstanding, the Saudis changed of the long-time dictator Ali Abdullah their approach to Iraq, because they Saleh, deposed in 2011, with Saudi understood that their policy of distancing Arabia. Zaidiyyah, although they are themselves from the authorities in Shias but they belong to a different school Baghdad only strengthens the influence then Iranian Twelvers, therefore for of Iran in Iraq. centuries they had little differences with

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both the Kurdish and (indirectly) Palestinian problems. Now, after the Much more complicated near-complete suppression of the anti- Assad rebellion and the abolition of the still is the civil war in Islamic State in its territorial dimension, the Syrian Autonomous Administration Syria, where the interests (NES), created in territories controled by the US-supported and Kurdish of not only Iran and dominated Syrian Democratic Forces is of key importance. The second key problem Saudi Arabia, but also is also the occupation of northern Syria by Turkey. Both issues are interrelated because Turkish policy is determined by Israel, Russia, the USA, the anti-Kurdish phobia in this country. As a result, Turkey, being a member of Turkey, and Qatar are NATO, runs a policy that is completely contrary to the interests of other Alliance intersecting, and which countries. One of the manifestations of this paradox was Turkey’s at the least also involves both the friendly neutrality towards jihadists from Islamic State and Al Qaeda fighting Kurdish and (indirectly) Kurds in Syria. Turkey consistently interfered with the US in operations Palestinian problems. targeted at Islamic State, striking, again and again, at the key American land ally, Yemenite Sunnis, who follow the Shafi’i i.e., the SDF. Such action was beneficial school of law that is considered moderate. for Russia, for which either alternative The emergence of the Wahhabism – either weakening NATO’s cohesion, imported from Saudi Arabia changed this or the US abandoning the Kurds (being situation and also led to the radicalization their sole ally in Syria) – would be a win- of the Zaidi community and increasing win situation. Leaving the Kurds would popularity of the system created in Iran have an additional positive effect for among them. This was the genesis of the Russia because it would create a vacuum creation of the Houthi Movement, which in northern Syria that only Iran or Russia at the end of 2014 took control of the could fill. Israel and Saudi Arabia would, capital of the country, Sana’a, the main of course, aim for it not to be Iran, which port of al-Hudeida and the majority of in turn would bind them more strongly the northern part of the country. Hadi with Russia. Such a scenario began to managed to escape to Saudi Arabia, where follow the US declaration regarding he asked for military support, which led a withdrawal from Syria, but it was to the ongoing war. blocked (at least temporarily) after the announcement that partial US forces War in Syria and the Kurdish would be remaining in this region. Iran’s problem determination to open the corridor Much more complicated still is the civil connecting it with the Mediterranean war in Syria, where the interests of not also determines Israel’s policy, which only Iran and Saudi Arabia, but also fears the use of such a connection to the Israel, Russia, the USA, Turkey, and Qatar logistical support of Israel’s opponents, are intersecting, and which also involves in particular Hezbollah, which in

66 The Warsaw Institute Review A Middle Eastern Web: Allies, Enemies, Conflicts combination with the Iranian nuclear program is now perceived by Israel as an existential threat. Closer cooperation The Kurdish problem is the subject of between Turkey and many misunderstandings. One of the frequent mistakes is not distinguishing Russia and its hostility between Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. Meanwhile, the relations between NES towards SDF are not the and the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq (KRG) are quite cold even though only points where Turkish both of these entities are US allies. As far as KRG is concerned, this does not prevent them from maintaining close and American interests relations with Iran and let Rosneft to gain a key position on the Kurdish energy are contradictory. After market. Another misunderstanding is the recognition as a real thesis put 2011, Turkey proceeded forward by Turkish propagation equating Kurdish troops in Syria with the PKK. with enthusiasm to join An additional, fundamental mistake is the belief that the Kurds are fighting the support of the Muslim to create an independent state. Such a postulate was put forward only by the Brotherhood in the Arab Kurdish Democratic Party (PDK) which dominated the Iraqi Kurdistan and world. referred only to the Kurdistan Region in Iraq, not to the entirety of Kurdistan. terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia and On the other hand, the Kurds in Syria the United Arab Emirates, and therefore have never advanced the postulates the Saudis supported in July 2013 a coup of secession, even while striving to in Egypt that led to the removal of the federalize Syria or to grant autonomy to Muslim Brotherhood from power. Since its north-eastern part. then, the relations between Turkey on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and Egypt on Troublesome US allies the other are openly hostile. The Muslim Closer cooperation between Turkey and Brotherhood has one more ally – Qatar, Russia and its hostility towards SDF are which caused the country’s confrontation not the only points where Turkish and with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab American interests are contradictory. Emirates. In July 2017, Saudi Arabia and After 2011, Turkey proceeded with UAE accused Qatar supporting terrorism enthusiasm to join the support of the and cooperating with Iran, made several Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world. demands, and then introduced the The supranational organization, with blockade of this country and threatening which the Justice and Development Party military intervention. The Qatari Emir (AKP) ruling in Turkey since 2002 has was then protected by Turkey, which sent connections to, on the wave of Arab its troops to this country. Qatar maintains Spring has taken power in countries good relations with Iran, although at like Tunisia and Egypt. The Muslim the same time it is perceived as the main Brotherhood, however, is designated as a sponsor of anti-Shia jihadists by allies of

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Old and new challenges The future of mutual relations in the The US would like to Middle East cauldron will also be marked by new challenges such as conflicts formalize cooperation over water, demographic changes, as well as changes in the regional balance between Sunni Arab states of power. The main determinants will be demographic potential, internal especially Saudi Arabia cohesion, military, and economic potential, including that of raw materials. and UAE with Israel. This Currently, according to the Global Fire Power rating, in the region, Turkey has was the purpose of the the largest military potential (9th place), followed by Egypt (12th) and Iran (13th), Middle East conference with Iran only showing an upward trend. In further places, there are Israel (16), held in Warsaw. Saudi Arabia (26), and Iraq (47). In terms of demographic potential, the largest Iran in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the country is Egypt, followed by Turkey largest US military base in the region also and Iran. Fourth place is Iraq, which, is situated in Qatar. Hence, the Saudi- however, has a very high birth rate. On Qatari dispute is another problem for the other hand, the share of Sunni Arab US interests in the region. Moreover, the states in the total population of the Turkish-Israeli contention should also be region is decreasing. Currently, the Sunni added to this. Relations between these two population of Arabian Peninsula countries countries were excellent during the Cold (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, War, though they began to deteriorate Qatar, and Bahrain) is only 62 million with the coming into power of Islamist inhabitants, for a total population of 440 Erdogan, and now they are already openly million (including Egypt, Turkey, and hostile. One of the reasons for this is Iran). According to forecasts, in 2050, the Turkey’s support for Palestinian Hamas. population of these countries will increase to only 84 million and will be comparable The US would like to formalize cooperation to the then population of Iraq (82 million), between Sunni Arab states especially Saudi while the entire population of the region Arabia and UAE with Israel. This was the will increase to almost 720 million. purpose of the Middle East conference held in Warsaw. The informal cooperation of From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, the these countries, despite not maintaining greatest threat is paradoxically the collapse diplomatic relations, has been an open of the current regime in Iran, which the secret for quite a while. They are joined US aims for, seeing Saudi Arabia as an by a common enemy: Iran. However, the ally in this policy. Meanwhile, the rise of Palestinian problem is an obstacle to the a democratic Iran would not only cause a formalization of this cooperation. It is not domino effect in the region, but Iran as a about the fact that Palestinians play an US ally would be much more valuable than essential role in Saudi politics, but for fear Saudi Arabia. Thus, it would be a nail to of the reaction of Arab public opinion. the coffin for the Saudi monarchy. In effect, the Palestinians themselves are treated entirely instrumentally by the Arab Witold Repetowicz states of the region. May 2019

68 The Warsaw Institute Review Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy Robert Rajczyk, PhD The Republic of China, better known as Taiwan, maintains official diplomatic relations with only 17 countries in the world1. Notwithstanding, it is an important player in the geopolitical conundrum of Southeast Asia and the global economy. At the same time, Formosa2 is an example of a successful socio-political and economic transformation.

ertain notions and most stable in the world. Furthermore, developments, critical to whilst Taiwanese democracy is only 30 the regional and global years old, it is an example of a successful geopolitical dynamics, transformation – from martial law to Care worth noticing and invite closer political pluralism. Next, due to foreign inspection. Inter alia, this includes that investments and public aid, Taiwan has although Taiwan has the status of a non- transformed from an agricultural country recognized state, its currency – the new into a global leader in the production of Taiwanese dollar is considered one of the electronics and semiconductors.

1 as of May 31, 2019 2 Its previous name

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continental part of China, while Taiwan was only the island of the same name The formal and legal status along with the surrounding islands. Formally, however, Chiang Kai-Shek places Taiwan in a group exercised dictatorial rule under martial law3, and he regarded the Republic of of countries with disputed China as the legitimate representation of all of China4. Meanwhile, as a result of the sovereignty, along with, geopolitical rivalry of the world powers then, Taiwan ceased to be a member of inter alia, Kosovo, Western the UN and all its agencies were replaced in lieu of the People’s Republic of China5. Sahara or Transnistria. Taiwan is , therefore, a special case as an example of the withdrawal of international Taiwan became a subject of international recognition. interest in 1949. In that year, following the defeat in the civil war with Mao Renown expert on international public Zedong’s communist rebellion forces, the law, Lech Antonowicz, claims that the government of the Republic of China was Republic of China is only the successor evacuated to the island, where some of of the Chinese state, not its continuing the most valuable exhibits from the Palace international legal entity, because “the Museum in Beijing were transported identity and continuity of the constitutional earlier. Only once has Taiwan appeared on law do not coincide with the identity and the agenda of world powers. In 1943 at a continuity of international law”6. conference in Cairo, Winston Churchill 3 Formally it came into force on May 20, 1948, pursuant and Franklin Delano Roosevelt agreed to the Law on the Period of National Mobilization in to give up Formosa (the name given to order to suppress the Communist Rebellion. Martial law the island by the Portuguese explorers in was abolished only in mid-July 1987 after 38 years of validity. At that time, only supplementary parliamentary the early 16th century) to the Republic of elections were held, in which the mandates elected in the China. Taiwan was a Japanese province years 1948-1949 were mandated for life. Civil liberties were suspended, which meant that the Kuomintang in the years 1895-1945 under the Treaty (KMT) party enjoyed a de facto monopoly. There were of Shimonoseki. Although having two other parties still operating on the continent, but incited social resistance, Japanese rule they were subsidized by KMT. Opposition activities were fought against, and the oppositionists most often was associated with the development of accused of communism emigrated to the USA and transport infrastructure, modernization of Japan. The son of Chiang Kai-Shek, who in the years agriculture and electrification, as well as the 1978-1988 held the office of President, laid down the end of the KMT dictatorship. He initiated democratic introduction of universal education. transformations in Taiwan, thanks to which political parties could be registered since 1989, and in 1991 On March 1, 1950, the Republic of China general elections for the parliament were organized. Five years later, the first direct presidential election was held. was formally re-established in Taiwan 4 Based on the so-called the consensus of 1992, both with Chiang Kai-Shek escaping from Chinese states recognize the uniformity of Chinese the continent. Taiwan was a member of territory while maintaining the right to its own the United Nations until 1971 and held interpretation. 5 Formally, the US broke off diplomatic relations with the status of Permanent Member of the Taipei on January 1, 1979. Two months later, the Security Council as one of the founders Taiwan Relations Act came into force, which became of the United Nations. The USSR and the legal basis for mutual relations, regulating, among others, the issue of the sale of American its allies meanwhile considered Chinese military equipment and weapons. representation to be the Chinese People’s 6 L. Antonowicz: ‘Status prawnomiedzynarodowy Republic, which in fact controlled the Republiki Chinskiej na Tajwanie. W: Tajwan

70 The Warsaw Institute Review Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy © Photo from the author's personal collection Taiwan is one of the most modern countries in the world. In the light of international law, the Republic of China is thus an independent state, that is, it has only empiric statehood. generally determines the foreign policy of The formal and legal status places Taiwan quasi-states. Taiwan again appears here in a group of countries with disputed as an exception due to the genesis of the sovereignty, along with, inter alia, Kosovo, uprising. It did not separate the borders Western Sahara or Transnistria. of its territory from the home country, nor was it established as a result of the The political position of these entities’ decision of an international organization. sanctions not only the degree of Unlike other unrecognized countries – for international recognition, but above all example, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic the economic potential and geographic 7 internationally recognized nor is it a single subject location . The first of these factors (as a state) in international law, while for example the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic controlling about w stosunkach miedzynarodowych’. Edit. E. Halizak. one third of the territory of Western Sahara as a Warsaw 1997, p. 38–42. member of the African Union enjoys the recognition 7 The Transnistrian Moldovan Republic is formally of 51 countries, and Kosovo, on the other hand, is part of the Republic of Moldova and is not considered sovereign by about twice as many states.

2/2019 71 Geopolitics © Photo from the author's personal collection Awareness of a separate Taiwanese identity is growing systematically.

or Transnistria – in the case of the pragmatic independence, assuming the Republic of China it is difficult to speak coexistence of two Chinese governments about the existence of a home state or a in recognizing each other as “political patron saint. actors.” In Taiwan, the idea of ​​exporting democracy to the continent has long Geopolitical Issue since lost importance. The Chinese from The geographical location of Taiwan as the continent mostly appear as a society guard somehow to the most important focused on the material dimension of waterway in the South- East Asia does their lives and improving its quality make the island a strategic object. The resulting from the incredible civilizational control over Formosa means strategic leap achieved on the continent through dominance in this region of the world in economic development. which one of the world’s major powers – China – plays the most important Representatives of the local middle class, political and economic role. For this which formed as a result of economic reason, but also because of the tradition reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping, are of cooperation and the history of mutual aware to whom they owe their material relations, the US has on the basis of its status. The potential for possible mass relations with Formosa the possibility of mutiny is also mitigated by the Confucian exerting political influence on the People’s concept of respect and obedience to Republic of China. American support for authority. In turn, manifestations of Taiwan prevents Beijing from reuniting social dissatisfaction are catalyzed by the island with the matrix, which is the controlled criticism, which is also a tool political and ambition-driven goal of the for achieving political goals (exchange of Chinese communists as another element party elites8) and the Social Trust System, in the recovery of territories lost to foreign powers in the nineteenth century during 8 An example of controlled criticism is the hit the Opium Wars. Regarding Taiwan, sensational series: Renmin de mingyi (translated into the name of the people), which was shown 7.5 billion the idea of ​​regaining power over the times on one of the Chinese video platforms, and continent has evolved into the concept of the production of this 52-part series was financially

72 The Warsaw Institute Review Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy the aim of which is to model an exemplary citizen through a system of point-based rewards, rewarding the fulfillment of The control over civic obligations and the adaptation of the citizen to the desired social patterns. The Formosa means Social Trust System is a Chinese response to the lack of social capital in the Middle strategic dominance in Kingdom, but the goal of the program is not its social reconstruction, but rather this region of the world social control. Democracy is , therefore, not a commodity of primary necessity for in which one of the the Chinese who are increasingly living world's major powers – on a better standard of living than their ancestors. The Marxist idea of ​​shaping China – plays the most consciousness has found its embodiment right now in the People’s Republic of important political and China, effectively displacing the Western model of democracy from social economic role. consciousness. This is the case, among others, in Hong Kong – the former British Macau. Chinese propaganda is intensively colony – where the pro-democracy social promoting the idea of “one​​ country, two protests of residents, mindful of their systems”, offering this systemic solution freedoms and guarantees of democratic as an opportunity to reintegrate Formosa freedoms from the time of British with the continent. For the Chinese supremacy, are suppressed by force. communists, taking control of the island in addition to the prestige dimension David vs. Goliath – national pride from the recovery of The Taiwanese question finds a all areas occupied by foreign powers prominent place in Chinese politics. as a result of the nineteenth century Since the communist rebellion of Mao Opium Wars – is primarily of strategic Zedong, gaining control over Taiwan importance. The solution of the Taiwanese has become a matter of honor for the problem in Beijing’s mind would Chinese communists. They even added involve China’s military and political this to the preamble of the Constitution domination in this part of the world, and of the People’s Republic of China. After for the US it would mean problems in the economic reforms of the People’s Republic implementation of defense commitments of China made an authentic “big leap” towards Japanese and South Korean allies9. in economic and civilizational terms, the matter of superiority over Taiwan Continental China believes that there gained even more significance, especially is only “one China.” In this political after the experience of taking over the 9 In the public discourse devoted to the issues of colonial powers of Hong Kong and the Taiwanese Strait – the strategic waterway of south-east Asia – there is the concept of «Taiwan supported by the Supreme Public Prosecutor›s Office threat», which means the danger of drawing the US People. The series deals with the struggle of law into war in that region of the world in the situation enforcement bodies in an authoritarian state with of China›s military annexation of Taiwan, especially ubiquitous corruption. In turn, more on the subject against the Chinese parliament in 2005, the so-called of framing criticism in the press can be seen here: ‘anti-secession law’, which grants Beijing the right D. Young: The Party Line. How the Media Dictates to armed intervention in the event of a formal Public Opinion in Modern China. Singapore 2013, announcement by the Republic of China of its p. 63–80. sovereignty.

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Taiwan, however, resigning from using the attributes of its statehood11, adopted a strategy for the authorization of so- called pragmatic diplomacy, which primarily intends to counteract the Chinese propaganda and political influence and thus gain an informational advantage on the international arena. It conveys effective implementation of own information agenda in the global media space. This demonstrates the high degree of communication effectiveness of the Taiwanese authorities. An example of such activities from the Taiwanese side is an information campaign supporting the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals under the slogan: “Taiwan Can Help.” Limiting adverse climate change is one of such goals and although the Republic of China is not a member of the UN and was not officially invited to the December climate summit

© Photo from the author's personal collection in Poland in 2018, it participated in events Taiwanese enjoy very much using cell phones. accompanying the debates, which was communicated intensively on the streets conception, Taiwan is considered a of Katowice, the capital of Upper Silesia12. mutinous province. To convince the international community to do so, they Asian Tiger use political and economic means. The The value of the Taiwanese national first of these factors entails effective ‘brand’ is estimated at USD 675 billion opposition to even symbolic manifestation in the world in 2018 and had increased of Taiwanese separateness on the by 8% relative to 201713. The secret of international arena, contributing to the Taiwanese economic success and the deepening of the isolation of the Republic of China, as well as economic factors10. www.passportindex.org/byRegion.php?country=tw (accessed: May 31, 2019) 10 An example of such actions are the problems 11 The Republic of China does not appear in of the Republic of China related to the inability international economic, political, cultural and sports to participate in the annual meeting of the World relations as Taiwan or under the name of the state, Health Organization Assembly, in which the and most often as Chinese Taipei with exceptions Republic of China participated as an observer in the form of membership in the World Trade until the takeover of power in Taiwan by the pro- Organization (Separate Customs Zone of Taiwan, independence Democratic Party of Progress. In turn, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) and the Asian Bank the Chinese promise of intense financial cooperation Development (Taipei, China). led El Salvador to break diplomatic relations with 12 Taipei to establish them with Beijing. The Republic World media were full of reports presenting a of China, outside the 17 countries of the world, tram displaying the Taiwanese commitment to including the Holy See, with the rest of the world climate protection running along the UN climate maintains consular de jure relations through the conference. network of Taipei Representative Offices acting as 13 Nation Brands 2018. The annual report on the de facto function of the Taiwanese embassies. the world’s most valuable nation brands; https:// Interestingly, the Taiwanese passport allows its brandfinance.com/images/upload/brand_finance_ owner to visa-free travel to twice more countries nation_brands_reports_2018.pdf (accessed: May 31, than the holder of the Chinese counterpart – https:// 2019).

74 The Warsaw Institute Review Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy resulting international position of Taiwan Thanks to investments in the development lies in the transformation of the structure of education and technological of the local economy. Until the middle innovation, Taiwan has become a of the 20th century, Formosa mostly global leader in the production of exported agricultural produce mainly semiconductors and integrated circuits, due to the agrarian reform carried out which merits it, along with Singapore, successfully in 1953. South Korea, and Hong Kong, a place in the group of so-called Asian tigers, the However, the deepening economic crisis fastest-growing Asian countries until on the continent during the so-called 1995. This position makes Taiwan a ‘Great Leap’ and ‘Cultural Revolution’ significant player not only in the global became an inspiration for the Taiwanese economy but also has its own political authorities to portray the Republic of implications. Control over the island can China as the Eldorado, which with its mean control over technologies because prosperity could tempt the compatriots production usually takes place on the on the other side of the Taiwan Strait other side of the Taiwan Strait. to actively oppose the communists. The economic transformation was mainly Furthermore, the dreams of returning supported by American financial to the continent materialize in a slightly assistance, which in the years 1950- different form than Chiang Kai-Shek 1965 amounted to USD 1.5 billion. As wanted. Albeit Taiwanese business a result, Taiwan started to invest in the is one of the largest investors in the light industry, which on the one hand People’s Republic of China, and even the was supposed to satisfy internal demand Taiwanese districts are established in the for consumer goods, and on the other province of Fujian with the main port of hand, contribute to the island’s economic Xiamen. Thanks to the Chinese workforce, development through the inflow of Taiwanese production of Foxconn giants foreign investors. Export has thus become and TSMC is competitive in the world15. the dominant feature of the Taiwanese China Morning Post”, 18.09.2016; https://www.scmp. economy. Visiting the Presidential Palace com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2020328/ in Taipei - the former headquarters of the taiwans-kuomintang-crisis-ill-gotten-gains-law Japanese governors of the island - you [accessed: December 17, 2018]. 15 can follow the history of the Taiwanese Foxconn is the world’s largest producer of electronics and computer components for the needs economy from rubber and plastic of leading global brands. The Taiwan Semiconductor products, through bicycles to electronics Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest and information technology products, independent manufacturer of integrated circuits and processors. Taiwan, as the location, has the largest which currently account for as much as share in the global semiconductor plate production half of exports14. market (about 21%) ahead of South Korea and Japan. Two-thirds of Taiwan’s revenues come from the sale 14 Taiwan’s economy was controlled by the KMT of electronics. The high growth of the IT industry is until the democratic transformation in terms of primarily due to the employment of highly qualified ownership. KMT is considered the richest political engineering staff, which, using the experience resulting party in the world. The party›s assets are estimated at from the assembly of custom-made equipment, over USD 800 million. In July 2016, a law was passed developed and implemented own structures for that obliged political parties to return the assets and production. This was supported by substantial state aid, assets in which they attained possession of illegally, which involved granting subsidies for the development nationalizing the property of the Japanese invaders of the IT industry. At present, direct investments are of the island in 1945, and investing in enterprises preferred instead of subsidies, which will enable 30,000 and foundations, monopolizing the ownership start-ups to be created within a few years. Taiwan’s structure of Taiwan›s economy. Lawrence Chung President Tsang Ing-wen wants the city of Taoyuan, writes more on this subject, see Lawrence Chung: where the international airport is located, to become the Taiwan’s Kuomintang in crisis as ‘ill-gotten gains’ Taiwanese Silicon Valley. The launch of the Taiwanese law threatens to reverse the party’s fortune. „South “Silicon Valley” is one of the ideas for modernizing the

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Mausoleum of Chiang Kai-shek in Taipei.

© Photo from the author's personal collection

Glocalism of Taiwan the form of, inter alia, Taiwan Excellence Japan, the United States, Germany, project implemented by TAITRA, serves China, Hong Kong, South Korea and this purpose16. Singapore are the biggest trade partners of Taiwan, which as the 17th world An important element is also the economy is not limited only to signing correlation between the concept of foreign free trade agreements, but is meticulously policy and the directions of economic trying to diversify sales markets and the cooperation. First and foremost, this portfolio of its export products due to is referring to the initiative of the New the fact that the Taiwanese industry is Policy Towards the South by President mainly focused on foreign trade. The Tsai Ing-wen, whose aim is to intensify promotional cooperation of government economic and political cooperation with administration and the private sector in 16 countries of South and Southeast Asia, as well as Australia and New Zealand17. economy of the Republic of China as part of the “5 + 2” industry innovation program. We are talking about The activity of non-governmental seven investment projects related to the development of IT, biotechnology, aviation, robotics and defense, organizations, supported by the Ministry and renewable energy. The support for the Taiwanese of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of “Silicon Valley” has already been declared by Google and Microsoft. The first of them launched the “Smart China, is an instrument to strengthen the Taiwan” project, which aims to train at least 5,000 16 people in the field of artificial intelligence technology TAITRA – The Taiwan External Trade and over 50 thousand in the field of digital marketing. Development Agency as a non-governmental Microsoft, in turn, has opened a research centre in the organization leads, among other things, a project field of artificial intelligence and employs 200 local for the promotion of Taiwanese exports – Taiwan specialists. The company also intends to develop 5G Excellence and a network of trade offices around the telecommunications technology in Taiwan mainly for world. the purposes of online streaming, smart cities, and 17 https://nspp.mofa.gov.tw/nsppe/ (accessed: intelligent applications. 31.05.2019).

76 The Warsaw Institute Review Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy © Photo from the author's personal collection The former mortal enemies advertise together one of the Taiwanese beer brands. Taiwanese presence on the international arena18. Taiwan runs humanitarian aid civil society development, which at the same projects for regions and states affected by time as an informational society is actively natural disasters, as well as development involved in building the international assistance, including not only countries position of the Republic of China, that maintain full diplomatic relations constituting an important subject of public with Taipei, but also developing countries diplomacy activities. Public diplomacy, – for example Bosnia and Herzegovina – especially in its digital variety, shapes and even those party to European Union19. the international image of this state, also strengthened by reference to the Chinese The Republic of China in Taiwan, despite cultural tradition. Culture, in contrast to the its complicated history and special legal Taiwanese regional identity, becoming more international position, unlike other and more popular in social research, does countries with limited sovereignty, has not pertain a carrier of political ideology become one of the important players on the and can become an element of Taiwanese international arena, effectively counteracting competitive advantage over China. I argue the Chinese political influence. However, it is more extraordinary that in Taiwan, Taiwan owes its success not only to US original Chinese cultural traditions have support but above all to the high level of been preserved in China, including also religious ones. Moreover, the renaissance 18 https://www.taiwanngo.tw (accessed: 31.05.2019). of Buddhism on the continent is attributed 19 In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, these are two projects in the field of green energy. In turn, to Chinese people from Taiwan and non- projects implemented in Romania and Bulgaria governmental NGOs. included support for the financial development of the small enterprise sector, local energy efficiency project, as well as financing the green economy and Robert Rajczyk the project of introducing electric buses in Sofia. May 2019

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Armenia – Pashinyan’s First Year Mateusz Kubiak One of the most critical turning points in modern Armenian history took place a year ago. In the spring, its citizens took to the streets in massive numbers and took power away from the Republican Party – a political vehicle which had stayed in power for two decades. The newly elected government's agenda is a combination of serious reforms with an alliance with Russia. This approach, however, results in mistrust on the part of Moscow. Armenia's authorities have also activated dialogue with Azerbaijan on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. This does not mean, however, that an agreement on this issue should be expected.

ne year has passed since and held on December 9, 2018, which the mass protests that led finally completed the process of changing to the resignation of Sergei power and allowed the 20-year monopoly Sargsyan, Prime Minister who of the Republican Party of Armenia’s Ohas been ruling the country for a decade (HHK) over the country to be broken up. (2008–2018), and the seizure of power by the leader of street demonstrations, Nikol The new team led by Nikol Pashinyan Pashinyan. As a direct consequence of proclaims the need for a thorough reform these events, snap elections were called of the country, while also advocating a

78 The Warsaw Institute Review Armenia – Pashinyan’s First Year

Armenian opposition leader and © Hayk Baghdasaryan (PAP/EPA) newly-elected Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (C) celebrates with his supporters in the Republic Square in Yerevan, Armenia, MAY 8, 2018. Revolutionary moods have been growing in policy of continuity in the international arena. Although the government was Armenia for a long time. favored with confidence (both in the country, winning a constitutional transfer powers of the Head of State majority in elections, and abroad – to the Prime Minister. In April 2018 – Armenia was even recognized as the contrary to previous announcements “country of the year” by the opinion- – he was nominated to the office of forming The Economist), it is already the Head of Government. This was the starting to be accountable for its actions. ultimate reason why crowds of people What has Pashinyan achieved so far, and took to the streets of Yerevan and other what does he propose for relations with cities. It should also be emphasized that Russia and the still smoldering conflict revolutionary moods have been growing over Nagorno-Karabakh? in Armenia for a long time.

The creeping revolution In fact, Armenia has been in a permanent The direct cause of last year’s revolution crisis throughout the entire period of was a kind of “constitutional maneuver” its current statehood. The reasons for of Serzh Sargsyan – who was then about this situation are both the conflict over to end his second (and the last possible) Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan, as presidential term. He was the first to well as the extreme oligarchization of

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participants of these, often successful, protests were more and more convinced Each year, more and that civic activity makes sense, the proof of which became mass demonstrations more grassroots against rising energy prices in 2015 (the so-called Electric Yerevan). It seems opposition actions that it was this situation (together with were being organized the economic and political factors mentioned above) that resulted in the in the country – first mass mobilization of society in the spring of 2018 and the removal of the HHK and concerning local and the Karabakh clan from power. then also national issues. As a result of last year’s protests, Nikol Pashinyan was appointed Prime political and economic life and the Minister in May 2018. However, due to resulting social stratification. Taking his poor representation in the National into account only on the last decade of Assembly at that time, he was forced the HHK government (or rather of the to act according to the votes of parties ‘Karabakh clan’ controlling the party), associated with the previous system it can be pointed out that the percentage (the main coalition member was, for of people living below the poverty line example, the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan). remained at the level of 30–35%, while Although Pashinyan had, at that time, the official level of unemployment was already made a full announcement of within the range of 15–20%. A solution planned reforms, the actions taken for the citizens has become economic in 2018 were somewhat temporary emigration, which is now the case for and focused primarily on the fight one in three families. Armenia has been against the corruption and oligarchic depopulating year by year, losing up arrangements of the previous system. to 2% of the population annually, and It was clear that early elections were remaining dependent on money transfers necessary for a thorough reform of the from Russia (which, depending on the country, which would confirm the social year, amounted even to several per cents mandate of the new government. Finally, of the country’s GDP). they were held in December 2018, and as a result, the newly Pashinyan’s political The natural consequence of the difficult vehicle – ‘My Step Alliance’ – obtained a economic situation, corruption, and constitutional majority. oligarchization of the country was social discontent. The latter even increased Distrust of Moscow after the events of March 2008, when From the Western point of view, the post-election protests were bloodily fundamental question was whether suppressed, and ten people died. In and to what extent the change of retrospect, these events can be seen power in Armenia would influence as a turning point in the dynamic the shape of the foreign policy of the development of Armenia’s civil society. country and, above all, the nature of Each year, more and more grassroots its cooperation with Russia. Today, opposition actions were being organized from this year’s perspective, it can be in the country – first concerning local seen that although there has not been a and then also national issues. The significant redefinition in the Armenian

80 The Warsaw Institute Review Armenia – Pashinyan’s First Year © Vahram Baghdasaryan (PAP/EPA) Armenian artillery position of the self-defense army of Nagorno-Karabakh in Martakert, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, 03 April 2016.

international strategy, the authorities in Yerevan seem to be working towards The actions taken in a “soft emancipation” from Moscow’s domination. What is important, these 2018 were somewhat efforts to reduce Russian influence are not so much the result of a different temporary and focused vision of relations in the region, but rather of an ambitious reform agenda in primarily on the fight Armenia itself, reckoning with previous against the corruption governments (linked to the Kremlin), and a desire to balance relations with the and oligarchic “Big Brother”. arrangements of the A convenient example of the presented dependence is cooperation in the gas previous system. sector, where Gazprom Armenia, controlled by Russians, remains response to this there was a rumor in an exclusive monopolist for the the media that the Russians were going transmission and distribution of the raw to drastically (by as much as 1/3) raise material (apart from Gazprom Armenia, the price of gas supplied from 2019 (by only the state-owned combined heat the end of 2018 it was 150 USD/thousand and power plant in Yerevan has a license m3 “at the border”)1. Finally, the terms to import it). Already in mid-2018, the and conditions of raw material deliveries new Armenian authorities signaled to were agreed at the end of December Russia the need to reduce the gas tariffs, 1 Although the price of Russian gas imported by which was then confirmed by a specially Gazprom Armenia amounted to 150 USD/thousand appointed commission, while at the m3 , due to the already mentioned internal tariffs, same time the state authorities also the price for an average end-user in the country was almost twice as high (the exact tariff varies launched a procedure for tax abuses in depending on the amount of gas consumed by a the monopoly company. As it seems, in given consumer).

2/2019 81 Eastern Report © Gevorg Ghazaryan (PAP) Yerevan, May 8, 2018. Armenian parliament members debate before the voting of the new prime minister in Yerevan, Armenia.

last year (i.e. when the existing contract informal monopolies and corruption (e.g. expired) and despite Armenian efforts, shakedowns in the offices of a railway they include a 10% increase to 165 USD/ carrier controlled by Russians) and, last thousand m3. Although negotiations but not least, reckoning with Armenia’s on this issue are still ongoing – Nikol previous authorities. In this context, Pashinyan declares that this increase reference should be made in particular in import prices will not affect end- to the proceedings against former users due to the reduction of Gazprom President Robert Kocharyan and the Armenia’s tariffs – it is clear that this former commander of the capital city’s issue remains a problem in relations garrison, General Yuri Khachaturov, with Moscow. What is important, the concerning their participation in the Russians are suggesting that a possible events of March 2008. The case is crucial reduction in Gazprom Armenia’s profits to Armenian–Russian relations because will force a reduction in the country’s Kocharyan is said to be closely connected investment agenda. (according to reports, even personally) with Vladimir Putin, and Khachaturov Naturally, the issue of gas prices was the chairman of The Collective remains only one of many examples Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of how the internal agenda of the from which he was dismissed at the new authorities affects relations with request of the authorities in Yerevan. It Moscow. Other factors are both the seems that Moscow treated it as a blow planned diversification in the energy to the prestige of the developed CSTO. sector (now also strongly dependent 2 on Russian gas) , the fight against network to Moscow and the previous Armenian authorities, oligarch Samvel Karapetyan. Under 2 At the same time, steps are also being taken to the 2017 agreement with the Yerevan authorities, liberalize the electricity transmission market itself. Karapetyan was also to manage the state energy After the outbreak of protests against rising energy transmission network (the highest voltage grid), but prices in 2015, the Russian company INTER RAO the Pashinyan government annulled the agreement sold its majority stake in the energy distribution in 2018.

82 The Warsaw Institute Review Armenia – Pashinyan’s First Year

As a result of all this, Armenian-Russian relations today seem to be characterized by a high degree of mistrust and a kind of There has been a constant tug-of-war as to the extent of Kremlin’s influence over the changes in a significant Armenia. intensification of talks Intensification of talks about Nagorno-Karabakh between Yerevan and The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which has a very real impact on the Baku. functioning of the Armenian state, remains a fundamental issue for any government, including the one of Nikol On the other hand, it is true that the Pashinyan. The new authorities are change of power in Armenia did not also taking active steps in this area, have the right to influence the social but it seems that they do not have a mood in the country with regard to real chance of translating it into any the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In more comprehensive agreement with this context, it seems that the lack of Azerbaijan. readiness to make real concessions (in both countries) makes the current On the one hand, there has been a authorities in Yerevan very limited in significant intensification of talks between their ability to reach a real compromise. Yerevan and Baku. As of February, since It is noteworthy that as early as January the change of power in Armenia, four this year, when Pashinyan’s alleged meetings of foreign ministers and three readiness to make concessions to informal meetings of heads of state have Azerbaijan started to be speculated in been held. It is worth noting that the public space, the Prime Minister publicly personal nature of Nikol Pashinyan’s stressed that there was no question of talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham adopting the principle of “territories Aliyev (“in the corridors” of international for peace”, according to which Armenia summits) does not mean in this case that would be the first to return part of these are only fleeting contacts. In January the occupied land around Nagorno- this year, during the Davos conference, Karabakh to the other side. He also the two politicians spoke to each other for reiterated this declaration in February about an hour and a half. this year, which was naturally viewed negatively by the Azerbaijani side. The fundamental postulate raised by Nikol Pashinyan is the need to include In consequence, it can be asked whether, the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh over the past year, apart from the Republic in the ongoing peace process. declarations mentioned above and Pashinyan argues that as Prime Minister meetings, anything else has happened of Armenia, elected by the people of that in the matter of the Nagorno-Karabakh country, he has no right to represent the conflict? It seems that, above all, a Karabakh population. However, this noticeable calming of the situation on issue seems to be, first and foremost, the so-called demarcation line has been peripheral to the ongoing negotiations observed – for example, not a single and, most importantly, actually death in fighting on either side was unacceptable to the Azerbaijani side. reported in both December and January.

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Firstly, Nikol Pashinyan’s way of governing is increasingly being Lack of readiness to criticized: a number of commentators point to the Prime Minister’s inability make real concessions to cope with criticism from the media or the opposition, or to the questionable (in both countries) competences of some of his closest associates. It also seems that there is a makes the current lack of experience on the part of elected politicians from the new ruling camp, authorities in Yerevan which in time may threaten unity within the ruling coalition. Furthermore, one very limited in their can point to the issue of conflict of interest in the case of Pashinyan himself, whose wife decided not to resign from ability to reach a real the post of Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper (it was compromise. founded years ago by Nikol Pashinyan).

What is also important is that following Secondly, it should be stressed that the one of the meetings in 2018, a direct situation of the current government channel of communication between is not simple. Although the country decision-makers in both countries has is experiencing economic growth, been re-established. In a similar spirit, it is facing demographic collapse, the declaration of the parties to the significant social stratification, and conflict in January this year was created, decades of neglect and abuse in many in which Armenia and Azerbaijan segments of the state. However, it is agreed on ‘the need to take concrete worth emphasizing that, despite the measures to prepare societies for peace.’ huge support for the current authorities, This act is unprecedented and can be selected social groups are already able seen as a success in itself. to protest, as was the case, for example, with the increase in the taxation of Prospects for Nikol Pashinyan Armenian gastronomic establishments. The question is naturally also whether It even seems that street protests Nikol Pashinyan will remain in power (including civil disobedience e.g. by and what difficulties and challenges blocking national roads) have become he will have to face shortly. Of course, a relatively natural instrument of social today, less than three months after participation in today’s Armenia. As the parliamentary elections that gave a result, if we add to this the potential Pashinyan a constitutional majority, ease of destabilization of the situation in public confidence in the Prime Armenia (or in the region) by external Minister remains enormous, and this actors (Azerbaijan, Russia), then it may will probably not change much in the turn out that in the next few years the perspective of this year. Nevertheless, government of Nikol Pashinyan may face it seems that already now it is possible significant difficulties. to diagnose factors that may become more and more of a problem for Nikol Mateusz Kubiak Pashinyan. February 2019

84 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth Joanna Żelazko, PhD ‘The Katyn Massacre’ is a symbolic term. It refers to a series of mass murders of Poles imprisoned in special camps of Kozelsk, Starobilsk, and Ostashkov, and in prisons located in the so-called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus (Eastern Borderlands of the Second Polish Republic that were incorporated into the USSR after the Soviet invasion of Poland on September 17, 1939). This term has been widely adopted as the first place discovered regarding this tragic set of events was located in the Katyn Forest and, for a long time, it remained the only one that was known.

n August 23, 1939, Soviet Germany had attacked its eastern neighbor. Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Approximately 250,000 Poles were taken Molotov and the Foreign prisoner on the Soviet-occupied territory. Minister of Nazi Germany Among them included nearly 15,000 OJoachim von Ribbentrop signed a Polish officers, police and gendarmerie, neutrality pact in Moscow. The secret part prison guards and soldiers of the Border consisted of a protocol under which the Protection Corps; all were placed in three Soviet Union invaded Poland on September special prison camps at Kozelsk, Starobilsk, 17, 1939 – only two weeks after Nazi and Ostashkov under the supervision

2/2019 85 History © Wiktor Malak (PAP) Katyń, Russia, April 20, 2018. Opening of the rebuilt Memorial in Katyń, including a new museum center, where an exhibition on Russian-Polish relations can be found.

of the USSR NKVD Prisoners-of-War of Joseph Stalin, Kliment Voroshilov, Administration. Vyacheslav Molotov, and Anastasia Mikoyan. Besides, the document contained Polish prisoners-of-war were interrogated an annotation that the proposal had also by NKVD officers. The Soviets intended been supported by Mikhail Kalinin and to find out about their political views, Lazar Kaganovich. their potential will to collaborate with the authorities of the USSR as well as the The transport of Poles from “special prison possibility to use prisoners of war (POWs) camps” (in the Soviet documentation, this for any propaganda activities. Meanwhile, was referred to as “camps unloading”) as the chief of the NKVD Lavrentiy Beria began on April 3, 1940, from Kozelsk, a day considered most of the prisoners to be later from Ostashkov and on April 5 from an “unpromising counterrevolutionary Starobilsk. Mass executions were carried element” and “hardened, incorrigible out by officers of the NKVD field units. enemies of the Soviet power,” he submitted a special request to the ACP The prisoners from the Kozelsk camp were (b) Politburo to shoot them without any divided into groups of 100 to 300 and then trial. According to Beria’s demand, Polish taken by rail to the Gniezdowo station civil detainees from prisons in Ukraine near Smolensk and from thereby prisoner and Belarus would also be executed. The transport vehicles to the forest near the mass shooting would take place neither village of Katyn. Some of them were killed “without summoning arrested persons in a villa in the forest; it was from there nor without presenting any charges or that the bodies were transported to the decisions to terminate the investigation burial pits. Other victims were led one by and indictment.” The decision dated March one, with their hands tied, towards the end 5, 1940, was accepted by the signatures of the trench where they were shot dead. In

86 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth total, no less than 4,410 prisoners from the Finally, it became possible to search for Kozelsk camp were executed while only 178 “missing persons” thanks to a Polish-Soviet managed to survive. military agreement signed on August 14, 1941. On this basis, the Polish Army was Prisoners of war from the largest of the formed in the USSR; it embraced Polish three camps in Ostashkov, reserved for officers who were granted freedom under officers of police and military gendarmerie, the decree on amnesty issued only two days were transported to the internal prison earlier by the Presidium of the Supreme of the NKVD headquarters in Kalinin Soviet of the USSR. The Army, formed (now Tver). They were murdered in this under the directions of General Wladyslaw building, in a specially adapted prison cell. Anders, consisted of Polish citizens who The bodies were then buried in the forest had been hitherto incarcerated in prisons, near the village of Mednoye. In total, 6,314 labor camps and places of exile on the prisoners were killed while only 127 people territory on the USSR. On the order of survived. General Anders, a special office of the Staff of the Polish Army was created to search The captives from Starobilsk were sent by for missing persons; also, the institution, rail to Kharkiv and placed in an internal governed by Captain Jozef Czapski, was NKVD prison where they were shot. Their charged with collecting any information corpses were then transported by trucks about sought officers. and buried in the forest area near the village of Pyatikhatka (today located within Representatives of the Polish authorities the boundaries of the city of Kharkiv). In also attempted direct interventions in total, 3739 prisoners from Starobilsk were Moscow. The then Polish Ambassador killed, while only 90 survived. to the USSR, Professor Stanislaw Kot, discussed the issue of the missing prisoners The Soviet authorities sentenced to death with Andrey Vyshinsky, a Soviet deputy approximately 3,000 Poles detained in commissar of foreign affairs. Moreover, prisons in Ukraine; meanwhile, 3000 were a special note regarding the fate of the incarcerated in various penitentiaries officers was sent to the Soviet authorities in Belarus as well over 1,000 from the by the then Polish Prime Minister Bialystok region – a total of over 7,000 Wladyslaw Sikorski. However, it remained people. In the 1990s, mass graves were unanswered. In addition, Sikorski did discovered in the villages of Bykovnia near not receive any information during his Kyiv (Ukraine) and Kuropaty located in the vicinity of Minsk (Belarus). Finally, it became Out of all the prisoners kept in the “special prison camps,” only 395 survived; they possible to search for were taken to the Pavlischev-Bor camp and then to Griazovets in Vologod “missing persons” oblast. The survivors thought that their colleagues were kept in similar camps thanks to a Polish-Soviet in other locations. Nonetheless, after the deportation, the prisoners disappeared military agreement “without a trace” while their families, desperately seeking any information about signed on August 14, their loved ones, were provided with false answers. 1941.

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The Germans had been aware of the burial site of the executed Polish prisoners almost On April 13, 1943, the a year before it was announced to the general public. In the summer of 1942, a German authorities group of Polish workers from the German organization Todt, who were forced to issued an official build military facilities near Katyn, learned about the graves of Polish soldiers from the announcement via local population. Once the credibility of this information had been checked, they Berlin radio about the put two birch crosses where the site was indicated and informed their superiors; discovery of mass graves however, the German authorities were not interested in this at that time. It re- of Polish officers in the emerged only at the turn of January and Katyn Forest. February 1943 when the Germans ordered that part of the area be dug out and, as a conversation with Joseph Stalin that took result, the burial sites were discovered. place on December 3, 1941, in Moscow. The local population was then questioned, and the information provided was then The possibilities of explaining the situation passed to General Alfred Jodl, Chief of did not improve over time and were the Operations Staff of the Armed Forces even hampered by the growing tension High Command. However, it was only in Polish-Soviet relations. The latter was after one month that the Germans decided caused by factors such as the deteriorating to open the graves, and they did so purely living conditions of the Polish Army in for pragmatic reasons. After the German the USSR and Stalin’s pressure to send the defeat at Stalingrad, the state propagandists Polish troops to the Eastern Front, which aimed to use the information about the ultimately led to the evacuation of soldiers crime committed by the Soviets on Polish and their families to Iran in 1942. officers to disrupt the Allies. As such, bringing about a possible dispute between On April 13, 1943, the German authorities the governments of Poland and the Soviet issued an official announcement via Berlin Union was seen as having the potential radio about the discovery of mass graves to cause a severe split within the entire of Polish officers in the Katyn Forest. Two coalition. Such a conflict may have resulted days earlier, the Transocean Agency had in decisions about certain activities to be informed about the uncovering of a mass carried out on the fronts, and thus, it might grave “with the corpses of 3,000 Polish have improved Nazi chances in their fight officers.” It was only on April 15, 1943, against the anti-Hitler coalition forces. that the Soviet newspaper Pravda, as well as Moscow radio, depicted their theory A vital element of the propaganda about the death of the Poles. The Soviet campaign was the conviction of Poles, side declared that after Nazi Germany had including those living in the German- invaded the USSR, the Germans executed occupied areas, and that it was the NKVD prisoners of war who were located in camps that had committed crimes in the Katyn near the city of Smolensk. Such statement Forest. For this reason, the Germans began a half-century-long dispute over sent to Katyn delegations of Poles from the presentation of the exact course of the occupied territories. Among them were crime, and indeed the guilty party thereof. doctors, representatives of the Polish Red

88 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth © Tomasz Gzell (PAP) Museum of the 10th Pavilion at the Warsaw Citadel, April 27, 2018, Warsaw. Photo presented during the ceremony commemorating the Polish POWs of the Soviet camps in Kozielsk, Ostashkov, and Starobelsk on the 78th anniversary of the Katyń massacre, Tver, and Kharkov.

Cross and the Caritas charity organization; Katyn Massacre was put on the NKVD. the Germans aimed to show them the At the beginning of June 1943, works in exhumation works carried out as well as to Katyn were interrupted. According to the convince them about the authenticity of the Germans, such decision was made due to graves. The German Commission worked the approaching front; moreover, they had under the supervision of Professor Colonel no intention to expose people conducting Gerhard Buhtz. Moreover, the Germans exhumation works that may potentially delegated to Katyn a group of Polish increase the risk of epidemics. Even if the officers from the Oflag II-C Woldenburg arguments mentioned above were true, as well as prisoners of war and journalists they served primarily as an excuse to put from other countries, including the United the undertaking to an end; at this stage States. of the exhumation, it was certain that the number of bodies buried in the Smolensk At the end of April 1943, a group of experts forest, which had been announced in in forensic medicine and criminology came all relevant statements, could not be to Katyn from 12 satellite countries or confirmed. Thus, doubts could arise as to allied countries as well as those occupied whether Germany had correctly blamed by the Third Reich. For two days, their the Soviet Union for committing the mass members carried out any necessary works genocide. Experts responsible for leading in the forest near Smolensk. The scientists the works deliberately decided not to dig up unanimously stated in the final protocol the last grave; instead, they claimed that that the mass executions had taken place in it contained the remains of other victims. 1940, during the period when the Smolensk Lists of names identified during the region remained under Soviet rule. exhumation of the victims were printed in the Polish-language press in the occupied The German press published frequent country. Prepared in a hurry and with little reports on the exhumation works: for accuracy, they tended to contain names of instance, the number of victims was people who had not died in Katyn; such estimated at 10,000-12,000, even though mistakes additionally undermined the not all graves could be discovered. credibility of German sources. Such estimates, however, allowed the remaining prisoners from special camps Due to the fact that both the Germans to be “found” to show the grander scale and the Soviets accused each other of of murder committed. Blame for the having committed the mass executions in

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However, the Poles managed to make illegal copies, thanks to which at least two Until 1991 when it was sets could remain in occupied Poland. One of these copies was hidden in the found during renovation headquarters of the Polish Red Cross in Warsaw. Unfortunately, it was destroyed in works. a fire when the Germans demolished the Katyn, on April 17, 1943, the Polish city after the fall of the Warsaw Uprising government wrote an official request to in the autumn of 1944. The second one was the International Red Cross Committee placed in the Department of Chemistry of to send to Katyn a special delegation the National Institute of Forensic Medicine whose representatives would be in charge and Criminalistics in Cracow and had not of verifying the incoming information. been discovered until 1991 when it was Having discovered the intention of the found during renovation works. Polish authorities, the Germans submitted their demand only two days later; thus, On September 25, 1943, the Soviet they managed to create the appearance of Army occupied Smolensk. Its next step Polish-German cooperation on the issue was to establish a “Special Commission of the Katyn Massacre. The International for Determining and Investigating Red Cross was even ready to deploy a the Circumstances of the Execution of special commission to the crime scene, but Prisoners of War – Polish Officers – by such a decision had to be accepted by all Fascist Nazi Invaders in the Katyn Forest.” parties concerned. The authorities of the As the name suggests, it had already USSR did not give their consent for fear of recognized German guilt even before an impartial and unquestionable verdict. it proceeded to examine the evidence. So, the Commission did not make it to the The works led by Nikolai Burdenko were Katyn Forest. The Soviets took advantage concluded with the publication of a report of this situation to accuse the Poles of on January 24, 1944. In the document, collaborating with Germany. In addition, Soviet experts in forensic medicine they broke off diplomatic relations with the deduced based on examination of the Polish government in London on the night exhumed corpses that the execution of April 25-26, 1943. It was a convenient had taken place between September excuse for Stalin who was able to and December 1941, as evidenced by officially announce his support for Polish newspapers and letters found on the communists in the Soviet Union. bodies. The number of victims was estimated at 11,000. Thanks to such a All materials collected during the German conclusion, it was possible to include the exhumation were then transported to majority of missing prisoners as well as to Cracow where they were examined by close the issue of the need for any further a group of employees of the Institute of exploration. According to the Commission, Forensic Medicine and Criminalistics Polish prisoners were responsible for under the supervision of Dr. Jan Robel (the constructing roads in the Smolensk area; documents collected are often referred to as this is also where they fell into the hands of the “Robel archive”). Original documents German officers and were then later shot by were taken by the Germans when they them. The Polish communists confirmed retreated in 1945. It is possible that the the Soviet version. files burned during the bombing carried out by Allied Air Forces near the village After the end of the Second World War, Redebeul in the vicinity of Dresden. it may have been possible to identify the

90 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth perpetrators during the trial of the Nazi testimony in Court. Nonetheless, it turned leaders at the International Military out that there had been no evidence to Tribunal in Nuremberg. The indictment, maintain such accusation. brought by the Soviet prosecutor, contained among other things the allegation of Even if investigators discovered in committing mass executions of Polish trenches many shells from German- officers in Katyn. In the period of July 1-3, produced ammunition, the research on 1946, the judges got acquainted with the their markings (symbols) indicated that evidence and questioned the witnesses. they had been produced in the interwar The only proof presented by the Soviet period; at that time, the USSR imported prosecutor’s office was a report prepared a lot of weapons and ammunition from by the Burdenko-led Commission. The Germany in the framework of military Court agreed to hear three witnesses of cooperation between both countries. Some each party, that is, the Germans and the of the murdered prisoners-of-war were Soviets; no Polish witnesses were included additionally hit with bayonets. During the in this group. The Tribunal did not refer to trial, information that their characteristic material evidence possessed by the Polish traces, which could have made it possible diaspora, either. to indicate the guilty, was not used – the bayonets were quadrangular, like the ones Among the testimonies examined was used by the Soviets, and not flat like a that of Docent Marko A. Markov from knife, which describes the bayonets used by Bulgaria, a member of the German Katyn German soldiers. Commission in 1943. After the end of the war, he was accused of cooperating In its judgment rendered on September with Germany by the Supreme Military 30 – October 1, 1946, the International Tribunal of Bulgaria. In addition, Markov, Military Tribunal in Nuremberg did not as a “foe of the people,” spent several recognize the guilt of the Germans in months in prison. Once he had regained the Katyn Massacre; the judges did not his freedom, he suddenly changed all his indicate any guilty entities, either. Instead, declarations. During one of the Nuremberg they decided not to mention the crime in trials, he stated that back in 1943, he had the conclusion of the final opinion. Due been forced to sign a German document to the political situation then, it was more and that the Germans could be blamed for convenient not to address the issue at all. the mass executions of Polish people. Such a change in attitude was probably the price Poles living outside their motherland for his freedom. widely discussed the Katyn Massacre. The so-called Katyn literature, which A completely different approach was concerned prisoners from all three special adopted by Professor François Naville, prison camps, embraced both memoirs an expert in forensic medicine at the of Władysław Anders, Jozef Czapski, University of Geneva and Professor Stanisław Swianiewicz or Bronisław Arno Saxén, a specialist in pathological Mlynarski, but also scientific monographs anatomy at the University of Helsinki. Both such as the one written by Janusz Zawodny. scientists upheld their conviction about Thanks to them, it was possible to spread the guilt of the Soviets. German Colonel the truth about the slaughter around the Friedrich Ahrens, who was accused by the world. Soviets of committing the Katyn slaughter along with the 537th Communication Due to some changes in the global Regiment, volunteered to provide political situation as well as increasing

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tension between the Soviet Union and the Soviet guilt. In 1943, despite the lack of United States, in 1949, the establishment doubt in this matter, Eden regretted the of the American Commission for the fate of Polish officers: “but even if they Investigation of the Katyn Massacre were not alive”, he said, “no action from headed by Arthur Bliss-Lane, a former the Polish government could raise them US ambassador to Poland, was made from the dead while it may constitute a possible. The Commission was primarily in risk to British interests in the eyes of the charge of collecting German publications Russians.” Due to political reasons, the dating back from the Second World War; truth about the guilty party remained top moreover, its members managed to obtain secret. materials held by the Polish diaspora in London. However, it did not have Poland, which was in the Soviet zone of the opportunity to examine any other influence, officially recognized German documents. guilt in the Katyn Massacre. Nonetheless, despite communist propaganda, many In September 1950, a report written by people knew the truth about the slaughter Colonel John van Vliet who was taken by and were prepared to be penalized for the Germans to Katyn along with a group spreading the facts to the public. It of British and American prisoners of war seems that the first post-war decade was was released and later published. In 1945, particularly repressive in this respect. he wrote a report on Katyn confirming the Despite an inevitable “thaw” that took version about Soviet guilt. Nonetheless, his place after Stalin’s death and settlements files were later made secret. On September caused by Nikita Khrushchev’s secret 1951, a group of US congressmen, speech “On the Cult of Personality and Its impressed by the memo, created a special Consequences” made to the 20th Congress US congressional committee to investigate of the Communist Party of Soviet Russia Katyn. A year later, the committee released in 1956, the truth about Soviet guilt was a report prepared based on information however not disclosed. If such information gathered during the hearing as well as some had been unveiled, it would have been other official documents. In its conclusion, necessary to reveal any documentation American officials wrote as follows: “We regarding the crime, to identify all personal unanimously agreed that there was no details of its perpetrators as well as to issue or reasonable doubt as to the fact that admit that Stalin had decided to murder the NKVD of the Soviet Union had mass prisoners of war (protected by international murdered Polish officers and members of law). The 20th Congress took place only the intelligentsia in the Katyn forest near two days after the US Committee had Smolensk.” However, the committee’s final announced that the Soviets were to blame opinions did not align with Poland’s official for the Katyn Massacre. In this situation, standpoint in this respect. The country’s especially in the period of the ongoing censorship body made its best efforts to “Cold War,” such a step would provide present them as “imperialist lies.” enemies with additional arguments.

Many years later, on January 1, 1972, the The Soviets aimed to distract attention British authorities decided to reveal reports away from the real crime scene; in order written in 1940 by a British Ambassador to to do so, they attracted public attention the Polish government-in-exile in London, to the village of Khatyn, located 250 Owen O’Malley, whose memos were kilometers east of Katyn, whose population initially addressed to the British Foreign was massacred by the Germans. In 1969, Minister Anthony Eden. He pointed to the slaughter was commemorated in a

92 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth © Tomasz Gzell (PAP) Katyń, Russia, April 8, 2017. Polish War Cemetery in memorial that was later visited by US the field of the State Memorial Complex "Katyn". President Richard Nixon during his visit to the Soviet Union in May 1972. The could not accept such a blatant expression names of Katyn and Khatyn, although of opinion. On April 4, 1979, the Katyn phonetically similar for many foreigners, Institute in Cracow started its operations, might have appeared credible for Soviet even despite possible repressions from attempts at mystification. the part of the country’s security services. Illegal at first, it only gathered a small The Katyn Massacre had not been group of people, to begin with. discussed in Poland until the turn of the 1970s and 1980s when many Poles Due to the dynamic political situation, the became interested in the tragic case. anti-government opposition in Poland, Of course, such interest was personal. which was gaining more and more However, some authors published books importance in the country, forced the (most often unauthorized reprints of texts authorities to make political concessions that had earlier appeared in the West as as well as to liberalize the living conditions underground publications), including of its citizens. As a result of perestroika, Dzieje sprawy Katynia [Katyn 1940] by introduced in the Soviet Union on Jerzy Łojek (under the pseudonym of April 21, 1987, General Secretary of the Leopold Jerzewski) and Dramat katyński Communist Party of the Soviet Union [The Katyn Drama] by Czesław Madajczyk. Mikhail Gorbachev and First Secretary of Many Poles sought to manifest their the Polish United Workers’ Party Wojciech attitude towards the Katyn executions Jaruzelski signed a declaration that gave by lighting candles on their windowsills birth to a committee of Polish and Soviet on April 13 and donating money for party historians. It was supposed to memorial plaques in churches. On July explain the problems of the shared history 31, 1981, thanks to the efforts of the Katyn of both countries. Due to the immense Committee, a monument in honor of public interest, priority was given to the victims was unveiled at the Powazki the Katyn Massacre. Nevertheless, the Cemetery in Warsaw. Soviet part of the Commission did not present any official information about Nonetheless, it was “robbed by unidentified the perpetrators; it falsely stated that persons” on the same night. However, the there had been no sources to determine authorities of the Polish People’s Republic guilt. Polish investigators, based on their

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materials, managed to develop reports on years. It was on the same day that Mikhail Soviet responsibility for the massacre as Gorbachev handed over the first part of well as they could in specifying that the the documents on Polish prisoners-of-war executions of Polish prisoners of war from to General Wojciech Jaruzelski. The public Kozelsk, Starobilsk and Ostashkov had widely discussed the fact of its disclosure. begun on April 4, 1940. However, little media attention was paid when Polish Consul General to Kyiv, Moreover, as the Katyn slaughter was Ryszard Polkowski, received more folders no longer a “public secret” and Poles contained with documents. Despite the could openly speak about the tragedy, the secret place of storage, it was possible to relatives of victims began to establish the determine that they had been kept in the so-called Katyn Families Association. Central Archives of the Soviet State Army. The first was officially registered in May More materials were delivered to President 1989. Since 1990, at the initiative of the Lech Walesa on October 14, 1992. These Independent Historical Committee of the included essential investigative material Katyn Massacre, it was possible to issue to explain the crime, namely Package no. “Katyn Booklets” (“Zeszyty Katynskie”). 1 that included Beria’s order to slaughter Polish POWs, internees, and prisoners. Besides, there was a group of Russian Moreover, the files contained the minutes historians and journalists who intended from the Politburo meeting, which took to conduct a careful investigation as well place on March 5, 1940, during which the as carrying out independent research for request had been accepted followed by its further documents. The breakthrough immediate implementation. came in 1990, when they were allowed to query the files of the Special Archive Since the 1990s, Polish publishers have and in the Central State Archives of the printed numerous books and articles on Supreme Archives Board at the Council the executions of Polish prisoners of war of Ministers of the USSR. In mid-March incarcerated in special camps at Kozelsk, 1990, the Soviet press published a Starobilsk, and Ostashkov. They consist statement on the findings contained in of monographs as well as scientific and Soviet documents by Natalia S. Lebedeva; popular articles, biographical notes of the the reports seemed to confirm that the victims, as well as analyzes and reprints of NKVD had to be blamed for the Katyn previously unknown documents. Based on Massacre. At the same time, it was upheld materials taken from the Soviet archives, that the reluctance of the Soviet authorities they sought to broaden the knowledge impeded their “findings.” about the situation in the camps and the details of the executions. Moreover, On April 13, 1990 – today celebrated information on the Katyn Massacre can as World’s Day of Remembrance for also now be found on various websites. Victims of Katyn Massacre – the TASS news agency in Moscow issued an official In the spring of 1990, due to the insistence statement. According to the communiqué, of the Polish authorities, the prosecutor’s the NKVD was responsible for offices in Kharkiv (Ukraine) and Tver slaughtering Polish officers in the spring (Russia) launched investigations aiming to of 1940. All personal blame was put on establish the perpetrators of the slaughter Lavrentiy Beria and Vsevolod Merkulov, of prisoners-of-war from the special which was a breakthrough event because camps. Out of thousands of witnesses the USSR authorities pleaded guilty to the questioned, the most important facts were Katyn Massacre for the first time in 50 delivered by Mitrofan Syromatnikov and

94 The Warsaw Institute Review The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth

Dmitry Tokarev. The former served as a the European Court of Human Rights senior caretaker of the internal block of in Strasbourg. According to a judgment the NKVD prison in the years 1939-1941 published on April 6, 2012, the Court (his testimony concerned the execution ruled that the execution of Polish officers of prisoners from the Starobielsk prison in Katyn could be perceived in terms camp that took place in Kharkiv) while of a war crime (which could not expire) the latter was the head of the NKVD while Russia humiliated the relatives of headquarters in Kalinin (now Tver). His the killed by refusing to grant them the statement referred to the prisoners based status of the victim. On the other hand, in the Ostashkov camp and contained in the same ruling it was stated that the the course of the crime as well as both Court had no authority to assess the organizational and technical details investigation from a formal point of view depicted with almost pedantic accuracy. as it concerned events from 1940; at that time, the institution did not exist nor did However, not all living witnesses were the European Convention on Human eager to testify in Court. Major Piotr Rights (it entered into force in 1953). Soprunenko, former NKVD director of POW affairs, claimed that he had However, no judgment can change the heard about the Katyn Massacre on the view of ordinary residents of the Russian occasion of the arrival of Polish President Federation. Moreover, even if the USSR Wojciech Jaruzelski to Moscow in April admitted its guilt as well as despite 1990. After the dissolution of the Soviet archival documentation blaming the Union, the investigation was continued Soviets, some publications have recently by the Russian Prosecutor’s Office. attributed responsibility for the Katyn However, it decided to discontinue the Massacre to the Germans as evidenced proceedings on September 21, 2004. No by the articles and books of Russian one has ever been officially charged in journalist Yuri Mukhin. At the same Court because the Russian Federation time, in Russia, there are currently many does not recognize the Katyn Massacre books and articles being published by as genocide; instead, they perceive it in such authors as Vladimir Abarinov, terms of a crime whose prosecution has Andrey Guryanov, Natalia S. Lebedeva, already expired. Thus, on November 30, Valentina Parsadanova and Oleg Zakirov 2004, the Katyn Committee notified who aim to present the truth about the the Institute of National Remembrance Katyn Massacre. – Commission for the Prosecution of Crimes against the Polish Nation of a Russian citizens, just like Germans crime committed by the NKVD. As a after World War II had to confront the result, Poland’s Institute of National responsibility for the crimes committed Remembrance issued a decision to by the Third Reich, will now have to commence an investigation into the accept that they are historical heirs of the Katyn Massacre. The primary purpose “achievements” of Stalin’s regime. Thus, of the proceedings was to determine they are facing a difficult task; they must the perpetrators of the crimes: those work out a formula that would reconcile who issued orders as well as their direct this fact with the lack of direct personal executors. responsibility of modern Russians for these acts of atrocity. Thus, since Russia did not recognize this crime as political murder, members of Joanna Żelazko the Katyn Family filed a complaint with July 2018

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Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine Grzegorz Kuczyński The results of the presidential elections in Ukraine are not so much a victory of Volodymyr Zelensky as much as the defeat of Petro Poroshenko. President Poroshenko was unable to make the election into a war plebiscite. Zelensky’s narrative dominated; a referendum on Ukraine’s leadership for the last five years. The defeat of Poroshenko signifies only shifts within the oligarchic system, instead of its defeat. The final balance of power will be known only after the parliamentary elections, which will also occur this year. The new presidency will not bring major changes in Ukrainian politics because of the inexperience and specificity of the back office of Zelensky, as well as the stronger position of the parliament. Therefore, one should not expect a radical improvement in the relations between Kyiv and Warsaw, and above all, with Budapest.

96 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine © Stepan Franko (PAP/EPA) Ukrainian showman, comedian, and Presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelensky reacts at his n the second round of the presidential campaign headquarters following a presidential elections in Ukraine, on April 21, 2019, election in Kiev, Ukraine, on April 21, 2019. Volodymyr Zelensky attained 73.22 percent of votes. His rival, outgoing impressive result of Zelensky is not so much president Petro Poroshenko, received 24.45 his personal success as much as it is the I 1 percent of votes from participating voters . defeat of his rival. Poroshenko had become Zelensky was the winner in all regions of the epitome of the “old” establishment in Ukraine except Lviv, where Poroshenko this showdown, and the vote on April 21st won. The departing president also won was a referendum in which the Ukrainians among Ukrainians living abroad, where expressed distrust towards the current he was supported by 54.7 percent of those political class. In 2018, the level of distrust, voting; whereas the president-elect received frustration, doubt, and disappointment 44.7 percent of the vote. Turnout in the among Ukrainians reached the highest second round of elections reached 61.37 level since 1991. Zelensky’s victory is in percent – which represented over 18.4 effect an articulation against the betrayal of million citizens. It is pertinent to consider Euromaidan ideals by Poroshenko, who is that as a result of the Russian occupation a symbol of the old oligarchic system. The of Crimea and part of Donbas, nearly 16 elections also compromised the Ukrainian percent of Ukrainian voters were de facto intelligentsia and opinion-forming circles, deprived of the possibility of voting2. The the broadly recognized elite, the vast majority of whom supported Poroshenko 1 https://www.cvk.gov.ua/info/protokol_ cvk_30042019.pdf as opposed to the “clown” Zelensky. 2 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ According to polls, for 40 percent of voters, what-zelenskiy-s-victory-means-for-ukraine a vote for Zelensky was an expression of

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© Sergey Dolzhenko (PAP/EPA) A giant screen shows the country's presidential elections final results during the Central Election Committee (CEC) sitting in Kiev, Ukraine, April 30, 2019.

protest against the current political class. Remarkably, the final result turned out to Both supporters of more daring reforms, be substantially better for Zelensky than disappointed by the stagnation of the state the survey forecasts. Ten days before the modernization process, as well as the social second round, a survey conducted by the and relatively pro-Russian electorate, had sociological group Rating showed that as voted for him3. much as 51 percent of Ukrainians intend to support Zelensky. Poroshenko could count Even before the first round of the election on only 21 percent. It is an overwhelming on March 31, 2019, many experts and advantage, and yet other data from this publicists dismissed the polls indicating the study was even more pessimistic for the sizeable advantage of Zelensky. Meanwhile, president. Within the group of voters who the result of the first contest put the actor were sure that they would go to the polls, in an exceedingly favorable situation and Zelensky‘s advantage was even greater, his rival in a very difficult one. It is worth which showed him winning as much as considering that from the point of view of 61–24. Zelensky lead in all age groups as electoral arithmetic, three weeks between well as in the south, east and the center the first and second rounds of the elections of the country. Furthermore, as much should definitely be noted in favor of as 61 percent of respondents thought Zelensky. This is evidenced by the number that Zelensky would win, whereas only of votes won by both candidates on March 17% believed in Poroshenko’s potential 31 and April 21: Zelensky obtaining 5.7 success5. For almost two weeks after the million and 13.5 million votes, respectively, first round, the president did not manage and Poroshenko obtaining 3 million to change the course of events. Support and 4.5 million votes, respectively.4 for Zelensky increased clearly both as a consequence of him proving his capability 3 https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/ to win the election, but also thanks to the analizy/2019-04-21/wielki-eksperyment-zelenski- nowym-prezydentem-ukrainy 4 https://www.cvk.gov.ua/info/protokol_ 5 https://warsawinstitute.org/pl/zelenski-zmierza- cvk_31032019.pdf po-prezydenture/

98 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine reallocation of votes given to most other present mainly on Facebook and Twitter. candidates. Compared to the results from Investigative journalists from Bihus.info the first round, Poroshenko only slightly wrote that Zelensky’s budget for online increased his electorate. Another negative advertising reached $300,000. It was for Poroshenko was that much as 83 percent particularly referring to the funding of bots of Ukrainians felt that the country needed on social media7. Mikhail Fedorov, head shock and radical change. Zelensky’s of Zelensky’s digital campaign, denied campaign and the slogan of choice between that staff used bots and said that $200,000 the past and the future better matched was spent on online advertising8. And that those expectations. was before both rounds. As it turned out later, however, Zelensky’s staff had created Volodymyr Zelensky. Why did he the so-called “The Mobile Online Group,” win? consisting of volunteers coordinating the The broadcaster “1 + 1” television channel “ feedback attacks” of Zelensky’s against his broadcasted Zelensky’s speech about rivals. Interestingly, the only requirement his intention to launch his campaign to participate in the group was to have on December 31, 2018. However, the a Facebook account, which opened the presidential campaign of Zelensky started door to foreigners, including Russians. much earlier, even prior to his name Zelensky’s campaign was almost one appearing in presidential election polls hundred percent virtual. No rallies and (autumn 2018). Operation “President direct meetings with voters and instead Zelensky” actually started in 2015, when the participated in a television show featuring TV series “Servant of the Nation” appeared a performance by “Kvartal 95.” Zelensky on the television, where Zelensky plays the avoided voters as much as he could. He role of a school teacher who accidentally did not talk to independent journalists. He becomes president. Zelensky did not win appeared only on 1 + 1 television, where he the presidency in the weeks between the recited prepared texts. Instead, his advisers first and the second round. Nor did he even spoke to the media on his behalf, assuring win it within those several weeks between them that they expressed the position of the moment of his declaration of running Zelensky9. and the moment of the final vote. Achieving the position of the head of state was possible The future winner presented his “team” thanks to the popularity gained over the last only two days before the second round. two decades in the role of not a politician, Nevertheless, the staff very quickly but an actor. Zelensky, the comedian, admitted to cheap populism during the spoke more to the Ukrainians than the campaign – the key political adviser to Poroshenko, the politician. Of course, it the president-elect, Dmytro Razumkow, was possible to win thanks to the fact that said that the president has no power to Zelensky’s campaign was conducted so as reduce bills for municipal charges or not to spoil the virtual image of the “servant 6 of the nation. ” 7 http://texty.org.ua/pg/article/Oximets/read/93353/ Jak_Zelenskyj_reklamuvavsa_u_Fejsbuci_ Zelensky’s campaign innovation was to Zvernenna_do 8 https://hromadske.ua/posts/za-takoyi-pidtrimki- concentrate – if discussing social media nam-ne-potribni-buli-boti-kerivnik-didzhital- – on Telegram and Instagram. Until kampaniyi-zelenskogo?fbclid=IwAR1THE-XOZV recently, Ukrainian politicians have been ZFqQZfPSkEjxupIuOGCGvzt2uH6A65Iis2RLM nVG67XCXpQs 9 https://www.politico.com/magazine/ 6 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/23/why- story/2019/04/24/ukraine-president-virtual- zelensky-won-ukraine-presidential-elections/ campaign-226711

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because “her economy is important for Ukraine”. He declared “not a step back” Zelensky’s entire when discussing Donbas and Crimea, and at the same time he said that it makes no campaign consisted of sense now to raise the affairs of Crimea, and the most important thing is to preserve unyielding criticism of the ceasefire and bring the soldiers home. During the campaign, it was possible to Poroshenko’s mistakes, implement such a strategy – by almost entirely avoiding debates. Nevertheless, the mishaps, and omissions, time of making (or not making) decisions will come when Zelensky steps into power, using most obvious which means that with every decision made by Zelensky, some groups of the voters will populist techniques. be dissatisfied and disappointed12.

imprison corrupt officials10. The notion Zelensky used tactics that, renown that Zelensky’s victory resulted from social Ukrainian writer, Oksana Zabuzhko called media activity is a myth. He won thanks “draw your own candidate”13 Zelensky to television and private production, asked his followers to write the questions which was connected with Kolomoisky, that he should ask Poroshenko, as well as a Ukrainian oligarch and his powerful write the main priorities for his program. connections, not by the hearts of young From the beginning, he presented himself people through social media. In fact, as a candidate of the people. “Everyone got on social media, the number of posts colored pencils, like children in kindergarten. supporting Poroshenko and Zelensky were Draw your own president. And the whole almost equal11. kindergarten, inhabited by millions of people with different levels of education and The success of Zelensky in the election social experience, this entire kindergarten was also possible due to the usage of was drawing... “Zabuzhko believes that in populist slogans, which are much easier to this way, this was a cynical exploitation of put forward by the claimant than for the not only the people’s trust but also their defending incumbent. Zelensky pointed to emotional capacities. It is easier to unite conflicting goals. He spoke about Ukraine’s people, pointing to a common enemy pursuit of NATO and the EU, but at the than around a positive idea. Such a tactic same time, he stipulated that this should was used by Zelensky. The enemy was be decided in a referendum. He spoke Poroshenko, and the main slogans were about reducing taxes for business, but at “change” and “new faces.” What change? the same time advocated for increased What faces? Zelensky began to reveal this social spending. He spoke about tightening only at the end of the campaign. Besides, economic cooperation with the EU (with some of these new faces once belonged to Poland at the forefront), but at the same the Party of Regions, the same party behind time called for closer relations with Russia, overthrown president Viktor Yanukovych.

10 https://focus.ua/politics/427184-tarify-i-posadki- 12 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/23/why- lyudej--ne-sfera-kompetencii-prezidenta--shtab- zelensky-won-ukraine-presidential-elections/ zelenskogo.html 13 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brIULF7MSu 11 http://ukrcontent.com/reports/rosijskij-stil- I&feature=player_embedded&fbclid=IwAR1Fntd57 propagandi-i-lideri-dumok-na-pensii-yak-zelenskij- 02hUdhBxUkihcdP67bHuAJOzgGdsh1NraaC9TO4 i-poroshenko-voyuvali-v-socmerezhah.html vKNPKdAuvC0

100 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine

Zelensky’s entire campaign consisted for only 4 percent of respondents16. It was of unyielding criticism of Poroshenko’s even more advantageous for Zelensky when mistakes, mishaps, and omissions, using the question concerned the most important most obvious populist techniques14. It issues for the respondent himself: price was all the easier because, as the survey increase (42 percent); communal charges conducted by the Democratic Initiatives (38 percent); war in Donbas (25 percent); Fund showed a week before the first round, corruption (25 percent); health service (23 voters have little knowledge about what percent); and unemployment (21 percent)17. the president is responsible for, as well as his competences and limitations. For One of the winning candidate’s slogans example, 32 percent of respondents said was “Zelensky unites the country.” Previous that the president is responsible for taxes, elections generally meant a choice between salaries, and pensions. The voters’ lack of a pro-Western and pro-Russian candidate. awareness is also evidenced by another The support map usually ran along the survey, conducted in April by the KMIS historical and linguistic lines of division in center, in which, as far as the question of Ukraine. Zelensky is the second candidate what is expected of the president during in the history of modern Ukraine who can his first 100 days of office, up to 39.1 actually say that he unites the electorates of percent of people answered ‘the reduction various parts of the country. He received of municipal charges’15. Poroshenko the majority of votes in all regions except decided to engage in the campaign as a Lviv in the western part of Ukraine. Five professional politician, statesman, and not years ago, Poroshenko did even better – he a populist. He did not talk about gas prices won in the first round in all circuits, which or taxes because it is not the president’s did not include the occupied regions of competence. He talked about what the Crimea and one-third of Donbas18. By president can actually address: homeland applying these new types of populist tricks security, military affairs, foreign policy, and focusing on the national problems and and the decentralization and reformations expectations of the majority of citizens, of the judiciary. With his decision negative Zelensky managed to overcome the opinion among the electorate and general traditional electoral division of Ukraine. disappointment with the political elite, he Even in the west of the country, where was condemned to fail. It was Zelensky Poroshenko had the most support, the who spoke about most of the issues that incumbent president succeeded in defeating people care about. When Ukrainians his rival only in the Lviv region. The best were asked about the three issues that result was recorded by Zelensky in the they believe are the most important for south and east: in the Dnipropetrovsk Ukraine, the responded: military conflict in district and in Donetsk, Luhansk, Donbas (41 percent); corruption in the state Zaporizhia, Odesa and Kharkiv regions. As administration (40%); price increase (27%); he wrote in the financial commentary of municipal fees (25%); unemployment (23%); The Financial Times, “although [residents] health care (20%); and the incompetence of Crimea and Eastern regions are occupied of the authorities (14%). Moreover, the by Russia, they could not take part [in the Russian occupation of Crimea turned out April election in Ukraine], Zełensky won in to be one of the most important problems 16 http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2018-5-21_ ukraine_poll_presentation_0.pdf 14 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/23/why- 17 http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2018-5-21_ zelensky-won-ukraine-presidential-elections/ ukraine_poll_presentation_0.pdf 15 https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports& 18 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/23/why- id=851&page=1 zelensky-won-ukraine-presidential-elections/

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every region except the westernmost Lviv, most of Zelensky’s supporters were young largely by eliminating the division into the people who are not usually politically east and west that characterized the previous active. Their turnout in the first round of post-Soviet elections.” The editors of the elections was not adjusted for in the opinion daily also emphasized that in Ukraine both polls. the prime minister and the president would now be of Jewish origin, “…which makes Low expectations of voters were poorly Moscow’s claims that the country would diagnosed. The campaign under the become a neo-Nazi junta senseless.”19. slogan “Army, language, faith” publicized those areas of politics in which the Petro Poroshenko. Why did he president could boast of some successes: lose? strengthening the armed forces, supporting Poroshenko started in an impossible the Ukrainian language, Ukrainian- position to win. A few weeks before the language music, and cinematography, first round of the election, he was listed as obtaining autocephaly by the Ukrainian the least popular politicians (a recorded Orthodox Church. Poroshenko also turned 47.7 percent)20. Only 13.3 percent of the his eye to nationalist circles, even allowing respondents said they would not vote the glorification of UPA / OUN and for Zelensky under any circumstances. Bandera (the activities of the Ukrainian Another survey indicated that as much Institute of National Remembrance and as 69 percent of respondents do not Volodymyr Viatrovych). This, however, trust Poroshenko, and only 24 percent only mobilized Poroshenko’s hard do trust him. In the case of Zelensky: electorate which was only enough to move 47 percent, and up to 43 percent, him to the second round. However, nothing respectively21. Poroshenko was in a far was done to fight for voters from southern worse situation from the beginning or eastern Ukraine. Poroshenko de facto with a very large negative electorate and handed over those voters to Zelensky. having the association of being a corrupt Poroshenko divided the voters, even oligarchic establishment (while Zelensky’s unintentionally, when he emphasized the connections with the oligarch Kolomoyskyi role of the Ukrainian language, tradition did not bother voters). The president’s staff and history, while Zelensky avoided also made several serious mistakes during categorical declarations in these areas and the campaign. Firstly, for far too long, the appealed to all Ukrainians, regardless of main rival was seen as Tymoshenko and where they live, the language they use on most of the efforts went to fight the former a daily basis or their attitude to Russia and prime minister. Zelensky was not perceived NATO, as well as what their views are on as a serious competitor for a very long time Bandera or Soviet tradition. Between the because Poroshenko’s staff succumbed to first and the second round, Poroshenko the same illusion as most of the elites: that introduced himself as the only statesman the Ukrainians were declaring willingness who could face Putin, while Zelensky to vote for a comedian, but when election a novice who was not suited to lead the day comes, they will either not vote or vote country during the war. for a “serious candidate.” Furthermore, Five years of the presidency had politically 19 “FT”: wybór Zełenskiego dowodem na głęboką exhausted Poroshenko. In May 2014, he zmianę na Ukrainie, PAP, 25.04.2019. won in the first round, and immediately 20 http://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/ rg_3ua_monitoring_ukraine_03209_press.pdf after the election he had an approval of 55 21 http://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/ percent. At the end of the term, it was only rg_ua_032019_press.pdf 9 percent. In October 2018 as much as 50.5

102 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine

Ukrainian President and Presidential candidate Petro © Sergey Dolzhenko (PAP/EPA) Poroshenko (R) and his wife Maryna (L) react at his campaign headquarters following a presidential election in Kiev, Ukraine, April 21, 2019. percent of voters said they would never here to the elections in Russia in 1996 vote for Poroshenko and only 6.5 percent when many Russians begrudgingly voted that would vote for him (KMIS survey, for Boris Yeltsin who was an ailing drunk Razumkov Center, Rating Group). In April only because the alternative was Gennady 2019, the negative electorate of Poroshenko Zyuganov, a communist. increased to 58 percent – indicating that even his election campaign did not After the second round of elections, in a help. Zelensky was “anti-Poroshenko” for closed meeting with the deputies of the many voters22. One cannot forget about Petro Poroshenko Bloc, the president the Ukrainian political tradition: during admitted that his failure was caused over 27 years of independence, only one by communication problems and poor of the five presidents managed to gain personal choices23. It was only after the re-election and Leonid Kuchma won the first round that Poroshenko began making second round in 1999 only because he had personnel changes and removing officials communist Petro Symonenko competing being the most burdensome for him, against him. There is a lot of similarities including the Kherson-based perimeter

23 https://thebabel.com.ua/news/29264-poroshenko- 22 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/27/why- proviv-zakritu-zustrich-zi-svoyeyu-frakciyeyu-pro- poroshenko-lost-to-zelensky-ukraine-elections/ shcho-govorili

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with the president and recently supported Zelensky, hoping to return after the The new president of change in the administration. The growing problems with reforms were not the only Ukraine is not familiar things that influenced the poor assessment of Poroshenko, who was supposed with foreign policy, and to embody the hopes of the crowds demonstrating at the Maidan in Kyiv in among the official experts 2013 and 2014. His relations with some oligarchs and politicians from the Party of in his surroundings Regions camp were perceived as suspicious, including those with Rinat Akhmetov or there were clearly no Viktor Medvedchuk. experienced people in Despite the obvious mistakes and failures of Poroshenko, Ukraine has made progress the field of diplomacy or through his rule. One cannot forget about the autocephaly for the Orthodox international relations. Church, the visa-free agreement with the EU, stabilization of the economy, administration, which is suspected of international support in the war with playing a key role in the murder of a civic Russia and increased US aid. Poroshenko activist Kateryna Handziuk. As the analyst is criticized for the slow pace of reforms. Taras Berezowiec wrote about the president In turn, what succeeded was more often in 2016, “instead of the professionalism of recognized as a change not due to the the candidate, personal trust is often the key president, but despite him. This is not factor influencing the nomination. If there is exactly a precise accusation. However, the no trust, there is no nomination”24. Petro Poroshenko Bloc was constantly supporting important legislative changes Another characteristic of the Poroshenko in the parliament. Without the votes of the government, which ultimately influenced BPP and the coalition People’s Front, no bill the course of the election, was the loss of would be passed. Poroshenko is particularly a number of political allies. For example, strongly criticized for ineptitude or even the leading reformers in the government, reluctance to fight corruption. This was Abromavicius and Danyluk, did not receive one of the key drivers of Zelensky’s success. sufficient support from the president Meanwhile, hard data shows that it is not and left the ruling camp, to now be in such an unambiguous picture. According Zelensky’s camp. We cannot forget about to the Institute of Economic Research and the incident with Mikheil Saakashvili, Political Consulting, the steps taken in whom Poroshenko appointed as governor 2014-2018 to increase transparency and of Odesa to carry out radical reforms, deregulation in Ukraine saved 6% of GDP which served an example for the whole annually, approximately 6 billion dollars25. country. It soon turned out that in disputes with “old” politicians and officials reluctant Although corruption has declined, to change, Poroshenko sided with them, not expectations were certainly higher. Saakashvili. As a result, he finally fell out Poroshenko did not fulfil his promise to

24 https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features- 38236744?fbclid=IwAR0wxHMFTilvhWs2NS5aCV0 25 http://www.ier.com.ua/ua/publications/ L6a6y9hkibPP1_oAkhk0eCx6ZFoDD8cN06e4 reports?pid=5993

104 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine end the war in Donbass quickly – but here he cannot be blamed. The key to the end of the conflict lies in the Kremlin, not in Difficult relations with the residence at Bankova Street in Kyiv. Assuredly, it was a success to strengthen Budapest are reflected in the defense potential of Ukraine – at least it was possible to prevent further losses. the cooperation between The army had to be built from scratch – it should not be forgotten that in February Ukraine and NATO. 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the Ukrainian armed forces were only capable of immediately sending a maximum of experience and try to play on the fact that 5,000 soldiers to fight. The dynamics of the Zelensky assured his country that the campaign between the first and the second priority for him is to end the bloodshed in round could probably only change in the the south-east of Ukraine. The Kremlin event of a serious escalation of the conflict uses the classic carrot-and-stick method. with Russia. All studies showed that the On the one hand, it declares readiness to only area where Poroshenko is perceived talk with Kyiv. On the other hand, it began better than Zelensky is defense, the army, to issue Russian passports to the inhabitants and the conflict with Russia. However, of the occupied part of Donbas en masse such an escalation of the war did not occur. and stopped exports of oil and fuels to Other desperate actions of Poroshenko Ukraine. The actions of Zelensky in foreign did not help; profound changes in his own policy will certainly be influenced by the team, a number of decisions showing that expectations of his supporters. 37 percent Poroshenko drew conclusions from the of Zelensky’s electorate supports Ukraine’s voice of the people – e.g., removing the membership in NATO, while 37 percent is most discredited officials and initiating for neutrality, and 8% is for close relations radical legislative changes, especially those with Russia28. that show that the authorities do not control the fight against corruption26. In this case, there is a clear geographical division: those who want to enter NATO Perspective of relations with come mainly from western Ukraine. Those Hungary and Poland who advocate for neutrality, come from The new president of Ukraine is not the south-eastern part of the country29. familiar with foreign policy, and among This means that Zelensky will not be as the official experts in his surroundings radically pro-Western as his predecessor. At there were clearly no experienced people the same time, one can expect a reversal of in the field of diplomacy or international the deterioration of bilateral relations with relations27. Ukraine’s biggest challenge in western neighbors, which occurred under foreign and security policy will be Donbas. Poroshenko. This includes Poland and During the campaign, Zelensky gave especially Hungary. By contrast, Ukraine various, sometimes even contradictory, shares decent relations with two other signals on the subject. Russia will want members of the Visegrad Group: Slovakia to use the new president’s lack of political and the Czech Republic (despite the pro-

26 https://warsawinstitute.org/pl/wotum-nieufnosci- 28 https://censor.net.ua/resonance/3121989/37_ dla-ukrainskiej-klasy-politycznej/ vibortsv_zelenskogo_za_nato_stlki_j_za_neyitraltet_ 27 https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/ tomu_vn_unika_debatv_schob_ne_vdpala_chastina analizy/2019-04-21/wielki-eksperyment-zelenski- 29 http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/04/23/why- nowym-prezydentem-ukrainy zelensky-won-ukraine-presidential-elections/

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Russian views of successive presidents private sphere). The head of Hungarian here, now Miloš Zeman, previously Vaclav diplomacy, Peter Szijjarto, said that the Klaus). In the case of Prague and Bratislava, Act violates the rights of the Hungarian there are no major potential conflict areas, minority in Ukraine. “I believe that our which is not the case with Ukrainian- Hungarian partners consciously chose Polish relations (mainly historical issues) a line of confrontation” is how the head and Ukrainian-Hungarian relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of (status of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, Pavlo Klimkin, reacted, at the Transcarpathia). Difficult relations with same time admitting that the Ukrainian Budapest are reflected in the cooperation parliament should adopt a separate law between Ukraine and NATO, because on the languages of national minorities30. Hungary has been blocking high-level Less than a month later, Klimkin resigned NATO-Ukraine meetings since autumn from his position, and Zelensky, stressing 2017 in connection with the adoption of a that Ukrainian is the only state language, new educational law by the parliament in announced that he is a supporter of the Kyiv. Budapest claims that it is violating development of the Ukrainian language the rights of the Hungarian minority in the by encouraging its use, not by forcing it Ukrainian Transcarpathia, as it restricts legal regulations. Therefore, after taking the right to teach in the native language. office, it will “make a detailed analysis of The crisis deepened after it was revealed this law to see whether it corresponds to the that Hungary secretly issued Hungarian constitutional principles and the interests of passports in Ukraine. In a recording all citizens of Ukraine”31. Such a signal from made at the Hungarian consulate in Zelensky was well received in Hungary, the Transcarpathian town of Berehove, although the declaration is still far away employees are instructed new passport from the deed. However, Budapest and holders to hide the fact that they obtained Hungarian organizations in Transcarpathia second citizenship from the Ukrainian assume that it cannot get any worse than authorities. Dual citizenship is not it was under Poroshenko. Considering recognized in Ukraine and Kyiv expelled Zelensky’s background, his views and the Hungarian consul. In retaliation, electorate, it does not seem that he would Budapest sent home a Ukrainian consul. continue the nationalist viewpoint of In February 2018, the office of the his predecessor. In villages inhabited by Transcarpathian Hungarian Cultural Hungarians, 90% of the population voted Association in Uzhgorod was attacked. for Zelensky. “Let me congratulate you for The Hungarian authorities have repeatedly this wonderful victory in the elections of mentioned that they do not expect the President of Ukraine,” Prime Minister improvement in bilateral relations with the Viktor Orban wrote in a congratulatory current government of Ukraine. telegram, stressing that the Hungarian government will continue to work for the From the perspective of Budapest, this development of Ukrainian-Hungarian anti-Hungarian policy lasted almost until relations. The Transcarpathian Hungarian the end of Poroshenko’s term of office. Cultural Association in Uzhgorod On April 25, the Ukrainian Supreme welcomed Zelensky’s victory, expressing Council adopted a controversial law on the hope that Kyiv would now stop the the Ukrainian language. It provides for obligatory use of this language in state 30 Ukraina/ Szef MSZ: swoją reakcją na ustawę językową Węgry wybrały drogę konfrontacji, PAP, institutions, self-government bodies and 26.04.2019 other areas of public life (it does not apply 31 Ukraina/ Prezydent elekt zamierza przeanalizować to religious rites or language used in the ustawę o języku, PAP, 25.04.2019

106 The Warsaw Institute Review Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine

“anti-Hungarian policy.” The association hopes that Kyiv will abandon the policy of deliberate assimilation of Hungarians and A serious factor, affecting “in accordance with the constitution and international documents,” will ensure the not only relations with Hungarian minority the full right to use the language in education from kindergarten Poland, but also foreign to university. The association also expressed the hope that Zelensky will create the issues in general, will be possibility for minorities, including Hungarians, to have representation in the the real strength of the parliament and among local authorities, and through bilateral talks will contribute new president. There are to the transformation of Ukrainian- Hungarian relations and the legalization many indications that of the institution of dual citizenship32. However, it can already be assumed that he will be the weakest Zelensky will not fulfil most of these demands for a simple reason: it was not a president since 1991. significant motive in the campaign and the president would not break with voters and waited out”33. The office of Jan Piekla, the politicians who were in favor of a decided Ambassador of the Republic of Poland in policy on the Ukrainian language. It is also Kyiv achieved little – the Ukrainian side still unclear what will be the balance of de facto rejected Poland’s extended hand power in the new parliament. for such a long time that Warsaw’s stance towards Ukraine soured, evidenced by Nevertheless, for similar reasons, one the presence of the head of the Ministry should not expect a breakthrough in of Foreign Affairs at the swearing-in of relations with Poland. At this stage, Kyiv Zelensky, instead of the President of Poland should first make gestures and make himself. specific decisions to restore confidence. Why? This was explained by Alona The question is, what can Zelensky do to Hetmanczuk, the head of the Kyiv Centre improve relations with Poland? Certainly, of Analytics Center Nowa Europa, on his an important gesture would be a visit to blog on the Ukrainska Pravda website. Warsaw as one of the first foreign trips Firstly, the Ukrainian leadership does not of the new president. This could also treat Poland as a priority in the manner that be achieved through the weakening of Poland treats Ukraine. Secondly, “there has nationalist tendencies in the policy of been a certain reduction in the importance the Ukrainian state in both educational of Poland, which from a long-term advocate policy to historical interpretation. of Ukraine has become simply a country Bandera certainly does not belong to between Kyiv and Berlin”. Furthermore, Zelensky’s ideals. However, the same “the Ukrainian political elite did not take question remains: what is profitable for the entry of the Law and Justice Party in the president and what can be applied Poland seriously”, treating it as “something without parliament? Subsequently, there temporary, which should simply be is the issue of Zelensky’s struggle for

32 Stowarzyszenie Węgrów zakarpackich zadowolone 33 Ukraina/ Ekspertka: Zełenski może poprawić z wygranej Zełenskiego, PAP, 23.04.2019 relacje z Polską, PAP, 25.04.2019

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decisions of regional authorities, and what’s more, they can become much more acute to Ukrainians gave the show their independence and independence from Kyiv,” stressed Portnikov34. winner a free hand in What does Volodymyr Zelensky’s crushing the implementation of victory mean in practice? It can be said that the Ukrainians gave the winner a free hand radical reforms and the in the implementation of radical reforms and the purification of the state apparatus purification of the state from the old elite. The problem is that in the parliamentary-presidential republic apparatus from the old this would only be possible with a majority in the Verkhovna Rada and with the elite. government reflecting the composition of the president’s alliance with the parliament. supporting compatriots in the west of the Currently, it is impossible, because the country. He has the support from those in opponents of Zelensky dominate in the the central and southern regions, so he can Verkhovna Rada. It is also not known how make decisions (or not make decisions) the balance of power will change after the to win over Ukrainians from Galicia. election. Zelensky, therefore, promised What is more, there are formal issues things in the campaign that he might not that matter. For example, the head of the be able to implement; however, this was Ukrainian IPN appoints and dismisses the already known. Just like focusing on issues government. Thus, the departure (if at all) which are not presidential competencies. of Volodymyr Viatrovich is not yet sealed. Nonetheless, it did not make Ukrainians A serious factor, affecting not only relations reluctant to vote for Zelensky – which was with Poland, but also foreign issues in further evidence that it was more of a vote general, will be the real strength of the “against” rather than a vote “for”. Without new president. There are many indications a strong representation in the parliament that he will be the weakest president since and participation in the ruling coalition, 1991. With the parliamentary-presidential Zelensky’s influence, as the head of state, on system, Zelensky would have to have a the political processes in the country will be very strong position in the Verkhovna small due to constitutional constraints. This Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. This remains means that the new president will try to run a big question mark because even if his a non-controversial policy, and the possible party, The Servant of the Nation, wins conflict with the parliament will serve as an definitively, they will still need coalition explanation for the lack of reforms35, as well partners. Furthermore, Vitaly Portnikov, as the lack of improvement in relations with Ukrainian commentator and chairman of such neighbors as Poland and Hungary. the Ukrainian part of the Polish-Ukrainian Partnership Forum which is operating under the aegis of foreign ministers of two Grzegorz Kuczyński countries, also points out that most of the May 19, 2019 issues surrounding the Polish-Ukrainian historical dispute do not refer to the powers 34 Ukraina/ Portnikow: Zełenski raczej nie usunie nieporozumień w relacjach z Polską, PAP, 22.04.2019 of state authorities, but authorities at 35 https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/ regional and local level. “It is obvious that analizy/2019-04-21/wielki-eksperyment-zelenski- the Ukrainian president does not affect the nowym-prezydentem-ukrainy

108 The Warsaw Institute Review New Challenges in Central European Foreign Policy Piotr Bajda, Professor

he coming months will be whether the Central European region a tough challenge in this maintains its peripheral position or attains dangerous time for Central that of a partner for Europe’s largest European countries. Decisions countries while gaining the broader right Ttaken by some capitals will define for to independently choosing its path of many years the critical directions of development. development and the region’s position in the international arena. As I write these It is clear that the EU’s next multiannual words, Central European countries have budget will be much more modest than concluded the elections to the European the current one, with the transfer of funds Parliament and the Three Seas Initiative to less affluent regions being smaller summit but are still before the Berlin due to the United Kingdom’s exit from Process conference for the Western the European Union, or due to pressure Balkans in Poznań. However, more exerted by the community’s mighty importantly, the post-election European members to allocate part of EU funds to Union is soon to witness the process of programs they are committed to back, electing new members of the European including those aimed at supporting Commission. These decisions, along refugees. Under these circumstances, with the brand-new balance of power there is a risk that the “cohesion policy in the EU institutions, will determine friends club”, as an informal group formed

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© Stephanie Lecocq (PAP/EPA) Brussels, Belgium, January 21, 2019. European Commission Vice- President for Energy Union Maros Sefcovic.

at the recent budget talks, which brings competition of other European liberties. together net beneficiary states, will no Fifteen years of EU membership have longer demonstrate its solidarity whilst shown to Central European states that witnessing how the EU budget is divided. today’s Berlin or Paris have a different If the new European Commission pursues understanding of freedom of movement a policy comparable to what is taking place for services, goods and persons while the right now, one could expect that attempts strategy of threatening defiant countries will be made to break cooperation between with withdrawal from the Schengen Area Central European states by offering more has become increasingly frequent. The favorable conditions to some countries. protectionism of the western states keeps Moreover, public opinion has in recent restricting European freedoms or tends years eyed the ability of the EU institutions to over interpret provisions of the treaties, and the mightiest countries to divide the making other EU members believe that European Union. Poland has, in particular, this is still the very same community had to face an unpleasant experience after Poland joined back in 2004. most of its smaller Central European peers backed the EU’s posted workers directive. Our first hazard is total anarchy in the Central European region, encompassing Central European countries have not yet competition between all countries that fully mastered how to employ European try to win the favor of new EU authorities tools, from which they – as new EU in Brussels and that of Europe’s largest member states – have failed to draw capitals. We can already observe the first lessons. Older and more experienced EU symptoms speaking for such a scenario in members are perfectly aware of how to the media. In the article “Europe from Left use the European institutions to bring to Right” on the Die Zeit weekly’s website, in regulations and solutions to benefit attention was drawn to the post-election from, even at the cost of limiting the free map of Europe that classified Poland in the

110 The Warsaw Institute Review New Challenges in Central European Foreign Policy group of far right-dominated countries, with Hungary, Austria, and Germany belonging to the conservative camp. In To have an efficient turn, Slovakia’s English-language weekly was happy to report that the liberal and impact, gain attention pro-European Progresivne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia) party claimed and become an attractive victory in the European Parliament partner, countries of election, which was a success compared to other V4 countries. the region need to put It seems, therefore, that Central European forward constructive political parties that won the May vote belong to various political camps. This ideas and solutions. victory will prevent the region from agreeing to long-term deals, but alliances do Countries of the region should be the ones not only have to rely upon ideological unity. to defuse a growing powder keg in a bid to bring Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, A hypothetical Central European coalition Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, cannot be solely focused on party unity and Albania closer to the European Union. or a negative agenda aimed at blocking Completing the process will put an end Brussels’s most dangerous projects. To to the very last gray area east of the Iron have an efficient impact, gain attention Curtain, or an area that other countries, and become an attractive partner, including Russia, China and Turkey, can countries of the region need to put forward use to achieve their goals and avoid major constructive ideas and solutions. One of consequences. Central Europe’s specialties might be to offer joint support for Europeanization It seems that the decision on integrating processes in the Western Balkans. other Western Balkan countries is already

© Source: ZEI.DE (https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english)

2/2019 111 Visegrad Report © Leszek Szymański (PAP) Bucharest, Romania, September 18, 2018. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (L) and Prime Minister of Romania Vasilica-Viorica Dancil (R) during a meeting as part of the Three Seas’ Initiative Summit in Bucharest.

sealed since, due to the upcoming Brexit, nation, he rather characterizes a liberal- not all of the UK’s seats have yet been leftist environment than a conservative distributed to the remaining EU member one. Nevertheless, at the end of May, the states. The very declaration from the media was swamped with information representatives for the European Union that neither Hungarians nor Poles had any and the European Parliament leaves problems with supporting his candidacy. no doubt that the British seats in the It is hence a let-down that at the last stage European Parliament will be handed to of the negotiations, after the meeting of MEPs from new EU member states in the Prime Ministers of the V4 on June 13, future. Moreover, leaving vacant posts in another message emerged that the partners the European Parliament for 2019–2024 did not agree on a common candidate. may indicate that EU institutions are And if Ševčovič would have also received keen to open up an opportunity for the the votes of other countries in the region, enlargement process to take place within he could become one of the more serious the next five years. This is why it is all the candidates. It is difficult to say whether the more worthwhile to get involved while leaders of the Western European countries making Europeanization of the Western would be ready to give the steering wheel of Balkans an element for building both a the European Union into the hands of the favorable scenario and agenda for Central Slovak. The problem with the acceptance Europe in a move to give an impulse to the of the candidacy of the incumbent Vice- entire European Union. President of the European Commission may be the fact that in the opinion of In the context of the above challenges, it many politicians from Western countries, would be a good idea for the leaders of Central Europe is not sufficiently objective the Visegrad Group to put forward a joint and ready to embrace the most important candidate for the head of the European functions in the Community. Commission. At the time, support of Maroš Ševčovič was contemplated. It seems today that attaining the region›s Representative of a small Central European subjectivity is a prerequisite for playing

112 The Warsaw Institute Review New Challenges in Central European Foreign Policy an active role both in the international This year’s edition of the Three Seas arena and in European relations, with the Initiative forum in Slovenia served as an promotion of Central Europe as a term to occasion to deliver a preliminary report on define the region to symbolically mark its the state of implementation of individual emancipation. Only what is named can undertakings2. In addition to EU financing, fully enjoy its image power. Recognizing the projects will be subsidized by a recently the region›s right to independence, submit established The Three Seas Initiative initiatives and promote its local candidates Investment Fund, launched as a new capital by western partners would corroborate the instrument. This will enable the entire full integration of Central Europe while program to be set in motion more swiftly. putting an end to the split into west and east. An additional condition is required to make Central Europe relatively independent. The second requirement essential for Each of its states needs effective leadership viewing Central Europe as a more serious that is well aware of all challenges, with partner in the eyes of both Brussels and Poland, as the region’s largest country, other influential European capitals provides designated to tackle a particular task in this for gaining greater multidimensional respect. Warsaw needs, therefore, to carry economic independence. All Central out exceptionally skillful foreign policy in European countries see Germany as order to connect and not to discourage, their largest economic partner whose and to maneuver artfully between small macroeconomic indicators have for years Central European nations and their often- determined to a greater or lesser extent complicated histories. It seems crucial for the success of those regional economies Polish foreign policy to include the Central that were undergoing transition. In many European doctrine, similar to the already places today, the rapid economic growth well-established Eastern policy. Poland’s of some Central European economies can, Eastern policy has become a peculiar however, be only partially owed to their hallmark on the international arena, with cooperation with Germany. Meanwhile, the Eastern Partnership program at the experts argue that Central Europe is not forefront, even if it has not always proved the only one to rely on Germany, but effective. Nevertheless, Central European Berlin could not handle economically partners eyed it mainly in terms of an without the aid from its eastern partners1. independent proposal alongside Berlin’s Notwithstanding that, the region’s potential Ostpolitik strategy. It is time to push cannot be fully exploited due to a number forward a full-scale Central European of factors, including the lack of new and policy alongside Germany’s Mitteleuropa. capable traffic routes running from north A condition for effective Polish policy in to south, restricted access to cheap energy the region will be to show that we take our resources and their low supply guarantee, partners seriously. However, this effort will as well as a modest share in implementing be profitable, because the empowerment new technologies. The Three Seas Initiative of Central Europe will strengthen each and a list of 48 projects focusing on of the countries in the region, but the three fields – infrastructure, energy and greatest added value will be enjoyed by the digitalization – and drafted jointly at the mightiest. Bucharest Summit in 2018 may emerge as an attempt to address these challenges. Piotr Bajda May 2019 1 https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw- report/2016-05-16/role-central-europe-german- economy-political-consequences 2 https://three.si/progress-report

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Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: Years of Missed Opportunities Juraj Krupa Since the establishment of the Visegrad Four in the early 1990s, most of the leaders and experts expected that, due to similar situations in almost all areas of life in those countries, the cooperation of V4 countries would naturally flourish in all domains, including the areas of security and defense. Since all V4 countries have Warsaw pact armies’ heritage and the same desire of Euro-Atlantic integration, their significant projects in the area of defense were expected to become successful. Although the idea of such a defense cooperation is supported by the authorities along with relatively high ambitions emphasized by many common declarations, the expectations and its potential have not been fulfilled. There were some partial successes, however, the existence of which leaves hope for tangible and more ambitious projects in the future.

114 The Warsaw Institute Review Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: Years of Missed...

© Zsolt Szigetvary (PAP/EPA) Hungarian President Janos Ader addresses a ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the accession of the Czech Republic and the rest articular national interests and of the Visegrad Four (V4) countries including ongoing changes in the political Hungary, Poland and Slovakia to the North process of Central European Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in Prague, Czech Republic, MARCH 12. countries influence V4 defense Pcooperation. Certain countries in Central Europe seem to be fading away from as a foreign policy tool in disputes with democracy and liberalism for various other EU members. This is especially reasons, which results in increased true in Central Europe, a region that has vulnerability for external influences and historically suffered greatly following threats. This change in political discourse changes in the balance of power or has an impact on their ability to share geopolitical games. common values and principles and gives more ground to disintegration tendencies Pro-Americanism was the unquestioned and particular ambitions. Geopolitical foreign policy principle in Central Europe initiatives like the Tree Seas Initiative until 2014. This is not the case anymore. might have a negative impact on security It is not that the region has become and stability in the region when used openly anti-American but rather its elites

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and the public have lost interest in the that did not get anywhere1: United States, just as interest in Central and Eastern Europe has disappeared in Mobile 3D radars is a project stemming Washington. This migration away from from 2013, which had the aim to develop Central Europe is not new, however, and modern radars that would provide air has been gradually ongoing as a result protection and surveillance capability of growing American interests in Asia. for V4 countries. A memorandum of Although this is not the case for Poland, understanding was signed in 2014 by it is already a fact for other Central defense industry companies interested in European countries. participating in the project. At the time, all V4 countries were planning to acquire All V4 countries officially declare to new radars, and this project seemed to be reliable allies with no alternative to have not only political support but also NATO membership, but their attitudes common interest. After a promising start towards NATO policies and fulfilling its of negotiations, the project was stopped goals are starting to differ. Hungary´s due to different national interests and perception of threat focuses on migration timelines in acquiring new radars. The and this country keeps close relations final result was that all countries were with Russia. The political landscape in the blaming each other for favoring national Czech Republic and Slovakia are shaped interests over the success of the project. by populism and they would like to play a role of a mediator between Russia and R&D and acquisition of Rosomak APCs the West. Poland, on the other hand, sees started in 2015 with the support of both Russia as the main threat. prime ministers of Poland and Slovakia. The APC is being produced under the Political differences, along with particular license of a Finnish company Patria in national interests, are seen in the V4 Poland. The prototype has even been defense cooperation. This cooperation presented during the IDET Expo in the is formally presented as successful; Czech Republic in 2015 under the brand however, no major project has so far been Rosomak/Scipio. Due to budgetary issues accomplished. Such projects as the EU of the Slovak Defense Ministry, the Slovak BG V4 cooperation or JLSG would not be side offered to modernize self-propelled achieved without the European Union. Howitzers Dana, Tanks, and Canons to the Polish armed forces. After months of So far, the V4 defense cooperation has complicated negotiations between both caused many disappointments and missed sides, the project has been dropped with opportunities. To date, joint acquisition both sides blaming each other for the of systems that would be used by multiple lack of flexibility in finding a suitable V4 countries has not yet occurred. compromise. The Slovak side, with its Many activities and projects, which insufficient resources, was not able to have been started, have failed to fulfill provide enough financial coverage, while expectations. Some were stopped while the Polish side was constantly coming up others are still running only on paper, with new requirements (engines for MiG- without any tangible effects. The list of 29, etc.), which could not be fulfilled by unfinished projects is long. Most of them Slovakia. were in the area of common acquisitions, modernization, and R&D. A CEPI 1 DAV4 po piatich rokoch: úspech alebo nevyužitá policy paper lists a number of projects príležitosť, 2015, Jaroslav Naď, Milan Šuplata, Marian announced in public by political leaders Majer.

116 The Warsaw Institute Review Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: Years of Missed...

Modernization of helicopters has been identified as a need by all V4 countries already in the 1990s. Many new ideas The cyberinfrastructure and projects have been introduced since then – multinational aviation training of the V4 countries is center, for example – but without success. In the meantime, the countries launched closely interconnected, their own programs for acquiring new helicopters. Each country decided to and its protection purchase different types of helicopters, which excluded future cooperation in this requires closer area. Such situations are symptomatic for many V4 modernization projects. cooperation.

These examples show a problem in Despite the progress in cyberdefense overcoming national interests in common capabilities and cooperation among acquisition projects that, if successful, Allies and within NATO itself, V4 has not would be favorable for all V4 members. been able to improve cooperation in this Missed opportunities were not only in the area. The cyberinfrastructure of the V4 area of modernization and acquisition countries is closely interconnected, and projects but also in most other attempts in its protection requires closer cooperation. pursuing defense cooperation. Cooperation in cyberdefense, which includes the exchange of industry Even though there was progress made in information as well as common training improving common exercises, to date, no and assistance, is absent. This should improvement in common education has logically lead to at least some discussions been achieved. Taking into consideration on developing V4 cooperation. that there is almost no language barrier between Slovakia and the Czech Republic Despite these missed opportunities and both countries used to have a unified and unsuccessful projects, substantial education system, it is surprising that cooperation in defense area can be not a single project in this area has been achieved. Some initiatives have been finalized. Real cooperation between V4 partially implemented and have the military academies is non-existent despite potential to contribute to improving the signed in 2013 V4 MILEP agreement. defense cooperation in the long-term As the example of the Baltic countries perspective. shows, with political will, and a proper evaluation of the relevance of several One possible way to improve cooperation education institutions, it is possible is to establish a V4 institutional to improve education and eliminate framework that would also contribute duplications – which leads to the cost- to better branding and elevate the status saving on infrastructure and staff and of the region. With the establishment of bring closer officers from all V4 countries. the so-called Senior Body in 2014, the However, the vision of a V4 academy is first precondition for such a framework currently unreal2. has been established. Its objective is to coordinate various working groups, joint positions, and projects. This helped to 2 http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar/2012/joint- communique-of-the, 2012, Joint Communiqué of better coordinate the positions of V4 the Ministers of Defense of the Visegrad Group countries within NATO and the EU.

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Despite its positive role, the Senior Body is The development of common protection largely considered to engage in duplicate of the V4 airspace through Cross- work, competing with V4 political Border operations could be another director meetings. successful project as well. Negotiations have been taking place for years without One of the biggest flagships of V4 any substantial progress among the cooperation is the establishment of V4 countries. Slovakia and the Czech V4 EU BG “Battlegroup” (operational Republic finalized a Cross-Border in 2016). The V4 decided to keep the agreement in 2018 which could be used Battlegroup as a permanent unit after as a blueprint for further negotiations its operationalization as it was deemed with other V4 countries. However, this to be mutually beneficial. The V4 also project was undermined by Slovakia agreed to prepare this permanent after the government released statements operationalization in the second half of against air policing cooperating with the 2019. The V4 EU BG is one of the main Czech Republic and Poland. Slovakia drivers for improving interoperability also made other arguments against the and joint defense development of the four presence of NATO troops in Slovakia. central European countries and is also On the other side, Poland and Hungary highly valued by the EU and NATO. With are also providing legal barriers that are the accession of Croatia to the second unnecessarily prolonging the finalization V4 EU BG in 2019 and its preparedness of the agreement. for potential participation of other allies and partner countries in the region, the Major progress has been achieved in the V4 members already started discussions area of joint V4 exercises that are also about the next operationalization of the supported by NATO and the US through Battlegroup expected in 20233. the European Deterrence Initiative and are conducted on qualitatively higher An important precondition for level thanks to the attitudes of all of the continuous cooperation is the Armed Forces General Staffs. It adopted establishment of V4 Joint Logistic the decision to conduct one major Support Group Headquarters (JLSG HQ) exercise and some specialized annually. that, in the context of lessons learned Regular participation of US troops and from the past, could be considered other allies are providing higher added a milestone. The Memorandum of value to the quality of the exercises5. Understanding signed in Budapest in 2018, expects the group to achieve low With the change in the security operational readiness in 2020 and full environment in and around Europe operational readiness in 2023. If the stemming from the assertive behavior JLSG HQ will be concluded as planned, and hybrid warfare by Russia, coupled it will provide important support to with the issues of migration, terrorism joint military exercises, logistics for the and failed states, the V4 countries V4 Battlegroup and might also, in some should put more effort towards closer cases, coordinate defense procurement4. budapesti-o-bezpecnostni-a-obranne-politice- eu-141535/, 2018, Seniorní skupina V4 jednala v 3 http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar/2014/ Budapešti o bezpečnostní a obranné politice EU budapest-declaration-of, 2014, Budapest Declaration 5 https://www.vlada.gov.sk//martin-glvac- of the Visegrad Group Heads of Government on the posilnujeme-regionalnu-obrannu-spolupracu- New Opening in V4 Defense Cooperation v4-cvici-spolocne/?pg=2, 2016, Martin Glváč: 4 http://www.mocr.army.cz/informacni-servis/ Posilňujeme regionálnu obrannú spoluprácu: V4 zpravodajstvi/seniorni-skupina-v4-jednala-v- cvičí spoločne.

118 The Warsaw Institute Review Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: Years of Missed... cooperation in the area of security Interoperability: Despite having NATO and defense. Unfortunately, the types membership for 20 years (15 years for of threats to each central European Slovakia), most V4 countries failed to country are beginning to differ, what invest in expanding and modernizing is also having an impact on specific their armed forces. The armed forces projects that could help improve defense in each V4 country are in a different cooperation. Thanks to NATO and the stage of modernization and use different EU, the V4 countries are participating equipment, making joint operations in projects that are helping overcome difficult. these differences, but so far none of the V4 countries was able to put Ability to coordinate defense policy forward a project that would bring the and planning: All V4 countries are V4 countries closer together in areas part of the NATO defense planning of interoperability, concrete defense process, and three out of four also planning and acquisitions. Therefore, have NATO Force Integration Units more effort should be put forward in their countries. Despite meeting in finding common ground towards all preconditions for closer defense addressing new threats jointly with our planning cooperation, no progress has allies in NATO and the EU. been achieved so far and no signs of positive development can be seen on the To be more successful in defense horizon7. cooperation, some basic criteria must be met. Cooperation among V4 countries is of vital importance despite often different Similar political culture and goals: All V4 views on fundamental principles countries should try to make an attempt and national interests. The V4 group to undertake decisions that would confirm is geographically, politically and our allegiance to the values of NATO and economically determined to cooperate, the EU. This would again create common the fact of which is relevant for defense ground for real cooperation and projects cooperation. The cooperation should based on fundamental criteria. This focus more on practical projects, will also provide preconditions for the which do not necessarily have to be deployment of combined forces, pooling big. The aim should be to focus more and sharing of resources while offering on assistance, effective cooperation, cost savings in the area of interconnected and smaller projects with added value. defense planning. Big projects could “sell the brand,” but smaller projects might be more Trust and reliability: Partners should beneficial, overall. build trust to ensure projects will be completed and finalized in a timely Juraj Krupa manner so that the armed forces of May 2019 a single partner will not be adversely affected by the withdrawal by the other partners6. Jireš, Amb. Rastislav Káčer, Jiří Schneider, Amb. Jiří 6 https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/156487/Towards%20 Šedivý, Marcin Terlikowski, Gen. László Tombol, a%20Deeper%20Visegrad%20Defense%20Partner- Tomáš Valášek, Marcin Zaborowski. ship.pdf, 2012, DAV4 Full report, Towards a deeper 7 http://www.visegradgroup.eu/about/cooperation/ Visegrad defense partnership, Jozef Bátora, Gareth defence, 2013, For a More Effective and Stronger Chapell, Attila Demkó, Amb. István Gzarmati, Jan Common Security and Defense Policy.

2/2019 119 Author Biographies

Daniel Pogorzelski Minister. Thereafter, also since May 9, 2017, Daniel Pogorzelski is a writer and editor Mikołaj Wild is serving as the Government for the blog ‘Forgotten Chicago’ and Plenipotentiary for the Central Vice President of the Northwest Chicago Communication Port of the Republic of Historical Society. As co-author of four Poland. p. 6 history books from the Images of America series on the Chicago neighborhoods of Mirosław Lenart Portage Park, Bridgeport, Logan Square Mirosław Lenart is a director of the as well as Avondale and Chicago’s Polish Interdepartmental Research Institute Village. A native resident of Chicago’s of History and Culture of the Polish- Northwest Side, Daniel has been civically Lithuanian Commonwealth; the involved in a number of community Head of the Old Epochs Literature initiatives improving overlooked parts Department at Opole University; Director of Chicago, such as helping to organize of the State Archives in Opole; and paint outdoor murals, serving on and Rettore of Accademia dei Rampanti the Junior Board of the Polish American in Padua, Italy. He is a graduate in Polish studies in Opole and theology Association, as well as volunteering in the at John Paul II Catholic University in Polish Triangle Coalition. p. 51 Lublin (KUL). Prof. Mirosław Lenart has cooperated with numerous Italian Grzegorz Kuczyński universities since 2001. He taught history of Grzegorz Kuczyński is a graduate of Polish culture at Padua University during history at the University of Białystok and the years 2006–2010. the University of Warsaw, specializing p. 22

in Eastern European Studies. Author Robert Rajczyk of books ‘How Do the Russians Robert Rajczyk, Ph.D. concentrates in Murder’ and ‘Throne in Blood: Secrets of his research on the political systems of the Kremlin’s Policy’. Journalist and expert the countries in Central and Eastern specializing in the eastern area, Russia, Europe as well as propaganda and mass and the former USSR. communication in the world. p. 96 p. 69

Mikołaj Wild Mateusz Kubiak Mikołaj Wild graduated from the Mateusz Kubiak is a graduate of Eastern Faculty of Law and Administration at Studies and International Relations at the the University of Warsaw; the School of University of Warsaw. He works as an German Law at the University of Warsaw energy sector analyst in the consulting and the School of American Law at the company Esperis. He runs a blog ‘Kaukaz University of Warsaw and University Kaukaz’, dedicated to events from the of Florida. Between 2015 and 2017, he region. p. 78 served as the Deputy Minister of the Treasury. From April 1, 2017 until May Joanna Żelazko 8, 2017, as the Chief Advisor to Joanna Żelazko, PhD in Historical Sciences, the Prime Minister. Then, from employee of the Institute of National May 9, 2017 to February 1, 2018, he Remembrance Branch in Łódź. She served as the Secretary of State specializes in the history of Poland in the in the Chancellery of the Prime years from 1945 to 1956, with particular

120 The Warsaw Institute Review Author Biographies emphasis on the military judiciary, Kurdistan” (2016) and “Allah Akbar, War the activities of the independence and Peace in Iraq” (2019). p. 58 conspiracy and the apparatus of repression in Łódź, as well as the subject Jan Rokita of the deception and unraveling of Jan Rokita is a lawyer, former Member the Katyń Massacre. of Parliament, Minister who moved away p. 85 from politics, currently a publicist and Krzysztof Rak lecturer. p. 13 Krzysztof Rak is a historian of diplomacy and philosophy, translator, Piotr Bajda publicist, and expert in the field Piotr Bajda holds a doctoral degree in of international relations, and Political Science. He is a lecturer at the holds a Ph.D. in History (Cardinal Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, Poland since 2007. He worked Warsaw). He currently works as a researcher at the Institute of Political as a Managing Director of the Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences Polish-German Cooperation (2006–2013). Between 2000–2004, he was Foundation. From the second half Deputy Director of the Polish Institute of the 1990s, he has undertaken in Bratislava; from 2005 to 2009 he journalistic activity, mainly worked at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Życie, Wprost, Rzeczpospolita (OSW) and was a representative of the and Nowa Konfederacja. Moreover, International Visegrad Fund (Trustee for he has also published, inter Poland) between 2013–2016. p. 109 alia, in Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta Polska, Nasz Dziennik, W sieci, Juraj Krúpa Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Die Juraj Krúpa is Security and Defense Welt, Handelsblatt, and The Sarmatian program director at the Slovak Security Review. Policy Institute. He worked at the Ministry p. 44 of Defense of the Slovak Republic where tomasz grzegorz Grosse he gained experience with defense policy, Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse is a sociologist, crisis management as well as with bilateral political scientist, and historian. He is and multilateral relations. In years a professor at the University of Warsaw 2013 to 2016, he worked at the Permanent and Head of the Department of European Delegation of the Slovak Republic to Union Policies at the Institute of European NATO. He holds PhD in International Studies. He specializes in the analysis Relations, which he obtained at Matej of economic policies in the EU and Bel University in Banská Bystrica. He the member states, and is an expert in graduated in the Advanced Terrorism public management, geo-economics, Studies program at George C. Marshall Europeanisation, EU theoretical Center for Security Studies in Garmisch- thoughts. Partenkirchen in Germany as well as in p. 34 Program on Security at the Asian-Pacific Witold Repetowicz at the PLA National Defense University in Witold Repetowicz – a journalist, lawyer, Beijing. p. 114 analyst specializing in the Middle East. Author of two books: “My name is

2/2019 121 The initiative of the Warsaw Institute Review quarterly initiative aims to initiating an open, strategic discussion; developing bilateral relations between representatives of diplomatic circles, embassies and, experts with Polish institutions and civil society.

Meeting with the Australian Ambassador, His Excellency Paul Wojciechowski.

Representatives of Warsaw Institute and The Warsaw Institute Review gave a lecture during a recent study visit of Bulgarian journalists to Warsaw.

Meeting at the Embassy of Romania with the Ambassador, His Excellency Ovidiu Dranga.

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ISSN 2543-9839 qr. 2. 2019 no. 9

THE WARSAW INSTITUTE REVIEW no. 9. 2019 www.warsawinstitute.review