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Value Investor Insight Sept 30 September 29, 2016 ValuThe Leading Authority on Value Investing eInvestor INSIGHT Inside this Issue Network Effect FEATURES Some investors have a penchant for high-quality compounders and some for Investor Insight: Mark Meulenberg somewhat-hairy special situations. Mark Meulenberg has an affinity for both. Spanning the risk spectrum to find current upside in Liberty Global, INVESTOR INSIGHT aving graduated from Cornell Liberty LiLAC, Liberty SiriusXM with a degree in business, Mark and Eastman Kodak. HMeulenberg got a crash course in value investing upon joining research firm Investor Insight: Jason Karp Sanford C. Bernstein in 1996. “They fed us Seeking large “expectations gaps” in potential investments and find- breakfast, lunch and dinner at the office,” ing them today in Dish Network, he says. “We were completely immersed.” SunOpta and Leidos. Now Chief Investment Officer at VNB Wealth Management, Meulenberg has put Uncovering Value: Emerson that early education to good use. His En- Industrial-equipment suppliers are hanced Core Strategy since the beginning of boring the market to tears. Is malaise 2008 has returned 13.8% net of fees, com- unwarranted here? Mark Meulenberg pared to 7.8% for the S&P 500. Uncovering Value: Sensata VNB Wealth Management Owning both franchise businesses and Auto-supply firms can repel quality- Investment Focus: Seeks companies an eclectic mix of quirky special situations, conscious investors. This one may be with “sticky” customers and highly recurring he’s finding opportunity today in such areas worth a closer look. revenues at rare moments when short-term market sentiment turns against them. as global cable services, satellite radio and Editor’s Letter printing solutions. A thoughtful student of investing reflects on the skills and mindset required to succeed at it. INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS INVESTMENT SNAPSHOTS PAGE Dish Network 7 Eastman Kodak 17 Emerson Electric 18 Leidos 9 Liberty Global 13 Liberty LiLAC 15 Liberty SiriusXM 16 Mark A. Meulenberg, CFA Sensata Technologies 19 Chief Investment Officer SunOpta 8 [email protected] (434) 817-4237 Other companies in this issue: Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, CarMax, 404 People Place, 3rd Floor Christopher & Banks, Coca-Cola, Ctrip. Charlottesville, VA 22911 com, Discovery Communications, Gen- www.vnbwealth.com cor Industries, General Mills, Rosetta Stone, Tailored Brands September 29, 2016 www.valueinvestorinsight.com Value Investor Insight INVESTOR INSIGHT: Mark Meulenberg Investor Insight: Mark Meulenberg Mark Meulenberg of VNB Wealth Management explains why he holds special situations alongside mostly franchise businesses, why he owns so many John Malone-related stocks, which personal trait he considers central to investing suc- cess, and why he sees upside in Liberty Global, Liberty LiLAC, Liberty SiriusXM and Eastman Kodak. By Ted Crawford Your portfolio has a mix of what might be This is an example for us of a core shares are worth between $10.50 and $12 considered high-quality compounders and investment, on which we typically only on a stand-alone basis, and probably more somewhat-hairy special situations. How need to take two or three big swings per than that to a strategic acquirer. did you arrive at that approach? year. Businesses with the kind of predict- I should point out that we differentiate able cash flows we prefer tend to be easier clearly in how we size core investments Mark Meulenberg: In the late 1990’s I took to value, so it’s not very often that they versus special situations. We typically a position as a portfolio manager with get mispriced. But sentiment can change hold eight to ten core positions, which in U.S. Trust, where one of my colleagues quickly. CarMax’s shares fell almost 30% aggregate make up close to 75% of the opened my eyes to franchise businesses in portfolio. The balance will be in higher- the Warren Buffett mold. I loved the idea potential-reward but also higher-risk posi- of buying great businesses – generating ON SPECIAL SITUATIONS: tions, which are usually weighted between free cash flow and with high and increas- I mostly own good business- 50 and 200 basis points each. ing returns on capital – that we could hold I have most of my net worth in this for extended periods of time. The problem es, but I also don’t want to strategy and I wouldn’t be comfortable was that as the 1990s went on, franchise leave money on the table by with all special situations. But at the level I businesses had become very expensive, so own them, I can buy things like Gencor In- we broadened our search into more eclec- ignoring special situations. dustries [GENC, VII, October 30, 2015], tic special situations and microcaps. Tap- which makes asphalt equipment, at a low ping both kinds of opportunities for new point in its cycle, when there are concerns ideas and owning each in the portfolio has in a relatively short period of time. That about insular-family control and when it made sense to me ever since. got our attention, and we knew the com- can’t seem to hold onto a CFO. The stock pany well enough to respond quickly. was trading below net cash – a valuation Describe a typical example of each. that forgives a lot of sins – but I wouldn’t A number of people we’ve spoken with want to own 20 5% positions like this in MM: CarMax [KMX] is a relatively new in recent years have expressed interest in the portfolio. I mostly own good business- holding for us, having bought it a bit under language-learning company Rosetta Stone es for the long term, but I also don’t want today’s price [currently $53] in April. It’s [RST] – at times to their chagrin. Is it a to leave money on the table by completely a well-run business that generates roughly representative special situation for you? ignoring special situations. 20% returns on incremental capital. It has a differentiated business model that ben- MM: Yes. The company had been on How do you typically source new ideas? efits from scale and a proprietary pricing our radar for a long time and we ended database, and there’s a long growth run- up investing in late 2014 in the low-$7 MM: Most of our ideas come from the way, with the capability to double its cur- range. We’ve been involved in businesses network of contacts and the company rent level of used-car stores in the U.S. that have made a similar conversion from database I’ve built over the years, some There will be some speed bumps. May- product sales to a software-as-a-service screening and a lot of reading. I should tell be peaking new-car sales will negatively model and seen how the change can ob- you I’ve made quite a bit of money from impact the used-car market. There is also scure value for some time, often exacer- ideas that have come from Value Investor nervousness about subprime auto loans bated because you get heavy turnover in Insight since it first launched. and how that might effect the company. the investor base. I’ve always been a big believer in the But when the price is right we can look Our basic thesis is that Rosetta’s Enter- importance of developing mutually ben- beyond these types of issues. We’re pay- prise & Education segment and the Lexia eficial relationships. To give a simple ex- ing a discount to the market for a high- reading business are now the growth driv- ample, when I interviewed for a new ana- quality business that should grow at twice ers, more than compensating for the wind lyst a couple of years ago it came down the earnings growth rate of the S&P 500. down in the retail consumer business. It to three candidates. One of them I hired. If the story tracks like we think it will, this has an excellent balance sheet to help it The second became a client. And the third is something we could hold for five or ten see the transition through to fruition. I stayed in touch with as he launched a years and ultimately get paid handsomely. We believe as earnings prove out that the hedge fund and we’ve been good resources September 29, 2016 www.valueinvestorinsight.com Value Investor Insight INVESTOR INSIGHT: Mark Meulenberg for each other since. I have tremendous re- double. If the business doesn’t improve in will figure out how to best monetize their spect for the quality of his research. We’ll the next 12-18 months we will probably assets, that media businesses in the U.S. talk later about our investment in East- lose some money, but we don’t think the will fare somewhat better than most peo- man Kodak [KODK], which was an idea downside is much lower and we’ll get out ple think, and that international efforts that came from his original work. if we see no signs of progress fairly soon. will prove much better than anticipated. I’ll give you another example about the This is typical of a special situation for us. For example, Discovery Communications’ importance of maintaining relationships, [DISCK] management recently said they this one from outside the context of idea expect its international-affiliate revenue generation. Before the credit crisis fully ON MEDIA: to grow at a low-teens rate over the next unfolded, I was working in Charlotte, What’s not well understood – couple of years. I just don’t think that’s be- North Carolina at a hedge fund. One of ing priced in with a U.S.-centric view.
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