V16, N30 Thursday, April 7, 2011 Grim map demographics face Dems have essentially pledged to GOP can rely on follow basic guidelines by former Secretary of State Todd population, not Rokita to build districts based politics for favorable on “communities of inter- est,” county lines and nesting legislative maps House districts in Senate dis- tricts. It is the demographics By BRIAN A. HOWEY that pose a daunting chal- INDIANAPOLIS - New lenge to House Democrats. Congressional and legislative These include: maps are being • The 40 Democratic-held forged in the House districts gained Indiana House a total of 4,681 people, an and Senate and average of 117 per district. are expected to • The 60 GOP-held Indiana be made public House districts gained a total next week. of 398,636 people; an average Whatever the of 6,644 per district. Note the popula- specifics are, • The state total popula- tion loss along the new maps tion gain was 403,317: an the Lake Michi- will likely paint average of 4,033 per district. gan shore and a grim picture • 30 House districts lost in South Bend, for Indiana population: 21 Democrat dis- all Democratic Democrats. tricts and 9 GOP districts. strongholds. This • Nine of the top 10 pop- Howey Politics ulation-losing districts – and Indiana analysis is not a partisan 15 of the top 20 - are held by one, as Gov. Mitch Daniels and House Speaker Continued on page 3 Shutdowns, walkouts & civility in politics By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE - “While Henry lives another bad “We want (Medicaid) to be constitution would be formed and saddled forever on us. What we have sustainable. We give governors to do I think is devoutly pray for his death.” - Thomas Jefferson to James the flexibility to target aid to Madison about Patrick Henry, while de- bating the state constitution. the neediest citizens.” Alexander Hamilton was shot and - U.S. Rep. killed in a duel with Aaron Burr. Com- pared to our early American leaders, Speaker Brian Bosma and Democrat HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

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Subscriptions $350 annually HPI Weekly Leader Patrick Bauer are positively it didn’t work and Lincoln confessed $550 annually HPI Weekly and angelic. Newt Gingrich is a creampuff. to it being wrong, but skipping out HPI Daily Wire. As a congressman and his- to deny a quorum or a majority vote tory buff, I got sick of lectures from is hardly new. Indiana Democrats 'Call 317.627.6746 the uninformed about how civil things breaking the law by abandoning the used to be. Distinguished historian state for weeks did set a new low for Contact HPI Robert Remini details in his official historians to include in the annals of Howey Politics Indiana biography of the United States House dumb decisions but it is not without of Representatives the fisticuffs and vague precedent. 6255 N. Evanston Ave. brawling on the House floor during the The wonderful, important Indianapolis, IN 46220 first decades of Congress. new book “Ratification: The People www.howeypolitics.com When I took friends on Capitol Debate the Constitution, 1787-1788” [email protected] tours, I liked to point out the blood by Pauline Maier covers the hard and 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 stains on some steps that supposedly closely fought ratification of our Con- were there from the famous caning of stitution state by state. In Pennsylva- 'Washington: 703.248.0909 a northern congressman by a south- nia the first critical battle was whether 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 ern one. According to Remini, I was to have a “restricted” state ratifying wrong. It is blood from a different convention or an “open” convention, © 2011, Howey Politics Indiana. bloody fight between Members. There in effect re-opening the Constitution to All rights reserved. Photocopy- is an old rhyme: “sticks and stones will state by state chaos. In an attempt hurt my bones, but names will never to stop the pro-Federalist vote, those ing, Internet forwarding, fax- hurt me.” opposed fled the state for weeks. ing or reproducing in any form, Vicious smears actually do Actually, they didn’t. That would have whole or part, is a violation of hurt, and mental health advocates say been illegal and anti-democratic. But federal law without permission the scars never go away, but person- they did briefly avoid coming to work. from the publisher. v ally I lean toward the name-calling. According to Maier, “Two It was rather stupid of the members who had been linger- Indiana House Democrats to use the ing at Boyd’s boardinghouse, James example of Abraham Lincoln jumping M’Calmont and Jacob Miley, suddenly out a window to deny a quorum since appeared in the room where the leg- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

islature met. They had been forcibly seized and dragged budgets have been cut. In the “big picture” world, this to the State House by the sergeant at arms and three men Republican House as a whole (Mike Pence being one of the who supported a quick ratification of the Constitution, in- few exceptions) looks far weaker than we ever did when in cluding William Jackson, who had been the federal Conven- past control. tion’s secretary. M’Calmont and Miley brought the number I remember years ago during a vacation to New of assemblymen who answered roll call to forty-six, exactly England, our kids were not overly enthused about all the the number needed for a quorum.” Without Pennsylvania, historic markers but were looking forward to seeing the Massachusetts and the others would not have followed. whale at a New England aquarium. The morning of the And that, my friends, is why we have the Constitution we visit the newspaper headline was, no kidding: “Whale Dies, have today. Aquarium Closed Today.” In Washington the Congress now faces a potential “Closing down” the government is going to lead to standoff on how to fund the government. When I was a lot worse headlines over elected in 1994, we faced this same divide. In 1995 the spring break, or summer, then earlier. And the Republican federal government briefly shut down. The myth is that base has steadily lost patience. A shutdown over the debt the Republicans lost. The result of Clinton’s compromises limit with three wars and the Japanese disaster could kill led to a balanced annual budget, welfare reform and the the markets. other victories we achieved. The Republican base was fired Politics and governing is a lot about timing, as well up, and we stayed in power for over a decade. What loss? as the decisions. The Indiana House Democrats had the The difficult balance in politics is how to take a passion, with the wrong strategy. The Washington House stand that highlights your position without damaging your Republicans have a strategy, but lack the passion. Neither cause. Make your point but don’t prolong it, and don’t works. v break the law. The new House Republican majority has not taken a clear stand, and probably already missed their key Souder is a former Republican member of Congress opportunity. from Fort Wayne. Little cuts will be remembered only by those whose

guidelines, only 14 of the 40 Democrat-held districts now Maps, from page 1 meet or exceed the new minimum population requirement. Democrats. Conversely, 47 of the 60 GOP-held districts meet or exceed • Twenty-five of the 40 House Democrats (or 2/3) it. represent districts largely or totally contained in five coun- ties – Allen, Lake, Madison, Marion, and St. Joseph. Collec- Allen County Districts tively, these districts show a population loss of 28,017. • The two Democrat-held districts in Allen County • There are eight House members of the Legislative (Reps. Winfield Moses and Phil GiaQuinta) show a total Black Caucus. Only two (Reps. John Bartlett and Cherrish population loss of 6,422. Pryor) have population gains in their Indianapolis districts. The remaining six – including all three in Lake County – Lake County House Districts showed significant population losses. • Collectively, the eight primarily Lake County dis- • The total population in the current Democrat-held tricts lost 2,690 residents. districts is enough to support 37.5 House districts, assum- • The six largely northern Lake County districts ing each has a population of exactly 64,838 – 1/100th of (Reps. Vernon Smith, Charlie Brown, , Dan Ste- the state’s 2010 population. Conversely, GOP-held districts venson, and Linda Lawson) collectively lost 23,070 resi- have enough population to sup- dents. port 62.5 House districts. • The two largely southern Lake • Generally accepted County districts (Reps. restricting assumptions are that and Shelli VanDenburgh) gained districts can differ by up to 10 20,380 residents. percent - 5 percent on either side of the average. This means that Madison County Districts new House districts could have • The two Dem-held districts in a population range of between Madison County (Reps. 61,596 and 68,080. By those and ) show a total popu- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

lation loss of 1,370. But while Reske’s district gained 4,595 enough population growth to meet or exceed the new residents, Austin’s lost 5,965. It is indicative of the GM rust minimum 61,596 – Dobis and VanDenburgh in Lake County, belt decline. Bartlett and Pryor in Marion County, and in Monroe County, Stemler in Clark County, Reske Marion County House Districts in Madison County, Mosely in Porter County, and Goodin in • Collectively, the 16 primarily Marion County Indi- Scott County. ana House districts gained 75,137 residents. • Note that Stemler and Dobis currently serve as • Of the six that lost population, all are held by committee chairmen under GOP Speaker Bosma, much to Democrats (Reps. John Day, , Vanessa Sum- the consternation of Minority Leader Bauer. Stemler was mers, , retiring Bill Crawford, Jeb the only Democrat who refused to join the recent Democrat Barden). The total loss in those districts is 24,045. walkout and Dobis has not caucused with the Democrats all • Of the 10 that gained population, seven are held session. And while Dobis joined in the walkout, he did not by Republicans (Speaker Brian Bosma, Reps. Phil Hinkle, go to Illinois with the others. He stayed at his Merrillville Cindy Kirchhofer, Brian Behning, Dave Frizzell, Cindy Noe, home. ), and three are held by Democrats (Reps. Ed DeLaney, , John Bartlett). The total gain in Hispanic Population Growth the seven GOP-held districts is 88,261 residents. The total • The one silver lining for Democrats is that the loss in the nine Dem-held districts is 13,124 residents. Latino population more than doubled in 39 of the 100 In- diana House districts. Due to the controversial immigration St. Joseph County House Districts legislation pushed by some House and Senate Republicans, • Collectively, the five primarily St. Joseph County the fastest-growing voting bloc is one area that could be a districts lost 822 residents. growing political bloc for Democratic candidates. • The four Democrat-held districts (Reps. Pat House Elections Committee Chairman Eric Koch has Bauer, David Niezgodski, , and Craig Fry) col- presided over nine field hearings - four in Northern Indiana, lectively lost 4,411 residents. four in Southern Indiana and one in Indianapolis - and is in • The single GOP-held district (Rep. Tim Wesco) the “process of compiling the public input.” Koch does not gained 3,589 residents. have a specific date when new maps will be made public. He begged off further public comment until next week. Democratic Growth The conventional wisdom going into the new • Ten of the 40 Dem-held House districts show House maps has been that if political considerations are HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

paramount, House Senate maps Republicans will have HPI sat down with trouble designing maps Senate Minority Leader defending more than 54 Vi Simpson and Sen- or 55 seats in their 60 ate Elections Committee seat majority. Our analy- ranking member Tim sis of the new Census Lanane on Tuesday to re- data is that assumption is view and flawed. A partisan map- Congressional maps they making process given this produced. Their goal was new data could probably to observe Rokita’s “com- edge that number closer munity of interest” axiom. to the actual current caucus majority. Speaker Bosma and They also believe there should be more minority represen- Gov. Daniels are consistently adamant that new maps will tation, particularly in Marion County. Currently there are be drawn more in the altruistic “communities of interest” only two African-American senators from Indianapolis. mode as opposed to incumbent protection. Daniels has The notion of “communities of interest” poses repeatedly said he will veto legislation that relies on overtly an interesting question. When HPI asked Gov. Daniels to partisan considerations. The 2010 Census data will give define the concept, he talked about compactness and cited them political cover (and they certainly knew that going the line of the late Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart into this process). who was asked about what constituted obscenity and he Even in the altruistic vein, House map makers will responded, “I know it when I see it.” end up with a product that will bring political controversy. Simpson and Lanane were asked about the phrase, There is a strong likelihood that Lake County Reps. Harris, with Lanane answering, “You have to have respect for cities Lawson, Brown and Smith may find themselves residing and towns. To some extent counties. You have to be cog- in a district with a Democrat colleague. That goes beyond nizant of ethnic makeup, cognizant of economic makeup, politics as these Democrats find themselves hemmed in by employment centers, whether the district is rural, urban or Lake Michigan and, ironically, the State of Illinois. suburban.” He points to the proposed SD22 and SD7, which The ultimate move radiate out of Lafayette. In Democratic could come in South Bend proposed maps, SD22 would be con- where Bauer might end up fined to Lafayette and West Lafayette in a district with a fellow- and would become an island in SD7. Democrat like Niezgodski, Lanane notes, “District 7 would be more which might be seen as a reflective of a rural district.” political payback for the “Sen. Lanane has been working 36-day walkout. The maps very hard to make sure, wherever pos- could mitigate the political sible, the communities of interest make fallout there if Bauer and sense,” Simpson said. Lanane added, Dvorak were placed in the same district, as Dvorak is running for mayor of South Bend and might not return. Ditto for Rep. Fry, who will be the Democratic Misha- waka mayoral nominee. And long term, if the House Legislative Black Caucus takes the expected hits, that could potentially erode Bauer’s grip on cau- cus leadership. Bauer has relied on the Black Caucus to stay in power. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

“We’ve made the districts reflective of the tiny 13-member caucus’ much more compact.” impact, which will be nil when it comes They point to Indianapo- to forging the new Senate maps, other lis, where there are only than a preemptive attempt to define three districts fully within compact, community of interest districts Marion County. Under before the release of Senate maps on their plan, seven Sen- April 11. ate districts would reside Simpson chafed when she noted within Marion County that she was invited to GOP caucus lines, with only SD36 spill- hearings on redistricting. “It was so ing across into Johnson offensive,” she said. “Since when do County. SD35 held by Sen. Republican caucuses have public hear- Mike Young would fall ings? We were essentially told, ‘You can entirely in Wayne Town- attend or not.’” ship, whereas now it takes Lanane hopes that the public field part of Marion, Morgan hearings will convince Senate Republi- and Johnson counties and cans to follow the Rokita model. “What splits four townships. The they heard in the public hearings is rest of the districts would reflective of what we tried to do with fall within two or three these maps.” He noted that at a field townships. hearing in Fort Wayne, citizens ex- Lanane also pressed frustration that “there were no points to SD20 - Sen. Luke maps to show.” Kenley’s district - which Simpson was asked whether she sprawls into five counties doubted the sincerity of Bosma and from the city of Marion File this proposed Congressional map by Senate Demo- Daniels on their call for nonpartisan down to Noblesville. It crats under the “wishful thinking” category. While it is maps. “No, I don’t have a doubt,” currently splits four coun- compact and features “communities of interests” the Simpson said. “We both support it.” ties and five townships. GOP maps will almost certainly push the 1st and 2nd She’s not so sure about Senate Re- Under the Democratic pro- CDs east instead of south (a case could be made that publican leaders, who have been less posal it would be in just LaPorte County should be with Lake, as opposed to War- vocal about the Rokita map doctrine. Hamilton and Tipton coun- ren and Benton counties), as well as the 6th, 5th and 9th That is due, in part, to the animosity ties and have just one split CDs further south. It will be interesting to see how the between now U.S. Rep. Rokita and Sen- township. Indeed, most of maps will treat the residences of U.S. Rep. Todd Young ate Republicans going back to previous the Senate districts under who lives in Bloomington and Republican Luke Messer legislative sessions and then exacerbat- the Democratic proposal who lives in Shelbyille. ed by the 4th CD primary when Rokita would observe existing defeated State Sen. . county and township lines Simpson also renewed her call for and look compact (see maps on page 5). an independent commission to draw the maps - something Senate Elections Chairperson Sue Landske did not Bosma says he supports. “We could do that now,” she respond to an interview request from HPI for this analy- said. “It could be done if they really wanted it. I think he’s sis. Senate leadership is keeping the map process close to backed off that and I don’t see any support from Senate the vest, but HPI has learned that the Senate female GOP Republicans.” That is probably reflective of the tensions caucus - Landske along with Sens. Bev Gard, Pat Miller between House and Senate Republicans that were stressed and Connie Lawson - are having a major influence on the further due to the House Democratic walkout. process. It was that core of senators who helped propel The political reality is that Democrats in both the Senate President Pro Tempore David Long into power. House and Senate have little control over the maps. In- The Senate map makers will seek to protect the deed, overtly partisan House maps could produce a second GOP’s super majority (34 seats), which means three of the walkout by the minority caucus. current 37 incumbents may find some interesting challeng- Canny House Republicans can get maps for the es when they’re up for reelection. next decade that will be fertile ground for future majorities Asked if there has been a dialogue with the Sen- just by playing the demographics straight and following the ate majority caucus, Simpson responded, “No.” And that is Rokita doctrine that has been embraced by the governor. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

“They didn’t come here for a political career,” Ryan said, re- Budget showdown may ferring to freshmen like Young and Stutzman. “They came here for a cause. This is not a budget. This is a cause.” Young stepped into the spotlight at the press con- boost Hoosier freshmen ference to explicate an important piece of that movement – By MARK SCHOEFF JR. reforming Medicaid, the federal program that funds medical WASHINGTON - Usually, the plum assignments for care for the poor. freshmen members of the U.S. House are seats on the tax- Under the Ryan resolution, Medicaid spending writing House Ways and Means Committee, the Wall Street- would be reduced by nearly $800 billion over the next 10 oversight Financial Services Committee or the business- years. It also would be converted to a block grant to states. focused Energy and Commerce Committee. “We want (Medicaid) to be sustainable,” Young said. “Un- Although those perches remain in demand for their fortunately, under the current financing model, it is unsus- fundraising potential, this year’s class of newcomers is tainable. We give governors the flexibility to target aid to making the most of their roles on the House Budget Com- the neediest citizens.” mittee. Young’s choice of words reflected an attempt by This phenomenon can be Republicans not to seem draconian seen in the Indiana delegation, while slashing the budget. They argued where Reps. Todd Young (R-9th), that they were not trying to destroy the (R-4th) and Marlin social safety net but rather trying to Stutzman (R-3rd) were part of make it more effective and efficient. the tableau standing behind the “These are bold reforms, budget panel chairman, Rep. Paul but they’re reasonable reforms – the Ryan of Wisconsin, on Tuesday sorts of things many of us campaigned when Ryan introduced the GOP’s on before we came to Washington,” blueprint for fiscal 2012 federal Young said. spending. Casting the GOP budget- The budget resolution, cutting effort in such measured terms entitled “The Path to Prosperity,” may become more important as the would cut $5.8 trillion from the debate goes on. Democrats are portray- current budget baseline over the ing the party as intent on eliminating next 10 years and reduce the defi- benefits for seniors, children and other U.S. Reps. Todd Young and Todd Rokita ap- cit by $4.4 trillion compared to the vulnerable constituencies while protect- peared with Budget Chairman Paul Ryan when budget President ing tax breaks for the wealthy and guar- he unveiled his “Path to Prosperity” budget presented in February. anteeing subsidies for oil companies. blueprint on Tuesday. Overall, it would reduce One of the most telling spending to 2008 levels. The deficit Democratic reactions to the Ryan plan would be fall from the current $1.6 trillion to $385 billion by came from Sen. , D-Ill., who 2021. By the middle of the century, the national debt would voted in favor of the proposal by the president’s deficit be paid off. commission that would stanch federal red ink through dif- Waving the 72-page document, Ryan asserted at ficult policies choices. the Capitol Hill unveiling that the budget resolution ad- But Durbin was part of the united Democratic front dressed the fundamental danger facing the country – a against Ryan. fiscal red-ink hemorrhage that threatens to undermine “The Ryan Republican budget has three pillars: upward mobility for future generations and puts America reduce Medicare benefits by more than half; reduce Medic- farther behind in repaying its foreign creditors. The deficit aid benefits for seniors in nursing homes; and reduce taxes is currently $1.6 trillion while the debt weighs in at $14.3 on the wealthiest Americans,” Durbin said in a statement. trillion. “America can resolve its budget crisis without punishing the The earnest, wonky Wisconsin Republican, elderly and poor while rewarding the very rich.” who seemed to be teaching a Budget 101 class as much as Perhaps cognizant of the fact that independent rolling out a political manifesto, dismissed the notion that voters are not necessarily as fervent as the Tea Party in members of his own party would blanch at the cuts he’s demanding that Washington halt all other activity and slash advocating because of the electoral pain they could inflict. spending, Young stopped short of calling for a government shutdown this week. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

If the House, Senate and White House can’t reach (Senate Majority Leader) (D-Nev.) on that issue. an agreement by Friday at midnight on funding for the six We’ve voted several times to keep the government open. months remaining in fiscal 2011, many government opera- The Senate is sitting on its hands.” tions will cease. Young is approaching the question of raising the On Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Mike Pence announced debt limit in a similar way. He’s not drawing a bright line he would favor a one-week extension, saying, “While I am on where he will come down. Treasury Department officials frustrated that liberals in the Senate continue to resist our estimate that the country will hit the debt ceiling as early efforts to include even modest cuts in this year’s budget, as May. I will support a one-week Continuing Resolution because “I don’t favor violating a debt limit,” Young said. “I the troops come first. We cannot put fiscal battles ahead of haven’t decided how I’m going to vote. Much will depend support for those who are fighting America’s real battles.” on the atmospherics – how seriously this budget is taken. “I never favor a government shutdown,” Young told I’ll be less apt to support efforts to raise the debt limit if I reporters after the budget press conference on Tuesday. don’t feel others share that vision.” v “I’m going to allow our leadership to continue to work with

Yet we must wonder how many of those deaths No statistics on are caused by potholes and our fellow citizens who believe virtue lies in cutting government spending by cutting taxes? death by pothole Thus far this year I replaced three tires destroyed by Indiana potholes. What other damage have potholes By MORTON J. MARCUS caused? There are no records kept of accidents resulting INDIANAPOLIS - Nothing stirs the imagination like from swerving to avoid a pothole. Damage to the steer- a near-death experience. Last Saturday I am driving north ing mechanism is not obvious and a pothole may cause a out of Columbus on I-65. I am death many miles from its location. obediently in the right-hand lane at There are streets in my town I no longer drive. 70 miles per hour. On my left is an I avoid certain direct routes because of horrendous road SUV passing me slowly. Suddenly a conditions. I will not accept, however, the excuses of my blue car is passing to the left of the mayor that this was a bad winter. SUV. There is no third lane and only No. The problem is that politicians insist on ignoring a minor shoulder on the left. our roles as citizens and thinking of us only as taxpayers. The SUV driver avoids being It is not the cold of winter that withholds funds from fixing rammed by pulling sharply in front the streets. It is the cold in the hearts of too many voters of me. Now, with a vehicle directly who deny our communal responsibilities. in front of me, I look into the rear- We live or die because others are careful or reck- view mirror to check on the tractor- less. The tragedy is a growing number of Americans, trailer right behind me. including many Hoosiers, believe we are or should be inde- I pull sharply to the right pendent of each other. The result is elected officials pander onto the right shoulder before pulling just as sharply left, to this view and do not act responsibly. straddling the rumble strip. The SUV does the same and When government cuts services to the disabled and then eases back into the travel lane. I also return to the ignores potholes it blames insufficient revenue. But why is travel lane. The blue car is far ahead of us. No physical revenue insufficient? The blame rests on those who will not damage. No deaths. support the primary functions of government with higher This outcome is not unusual. Automotive and taxes at the expense of less consumer spending. Instead highway engineers design cars and roads to protect us. they focus on an agenda to appease the radical fringe pas- Each time we drive on a two lane Hoosier road at 55 miles sionate about abortion and gay marriage. per hour and see another vehicle traveling toward us at the Killing people with potholes is not a sin to these same speed, we witness the miracle of survival. enemies of liberty. Destroying the lives of afflicted families Those who drive recklessly are roadway terrorists. by withholding assistance is not a social virtue. How do They endanger others as they race to some reward or away we rouse our fellow citizens to understand the linkages of from some punishment. They speed through red lights and modern life and the need to be our brother’s keeper? v ignore stop signs. They contributed to 43,000 American highway deaths last year. Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Business. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

That First Lady Cheri Daniels is throwing out the Daniels sees Ryan first pitch for the Indianapolis Indians baseball game this afternoon is a natural. Her grandfather is Hall-of-Famer Billy Hermann. blueprint as GOP plank But when news hit that she would be the keynoter By BRIAN A. HOWEY for the May 11 GOP Spring Dinner, that was news! INDIANAPOLIS - Gov. Daniels has long sought So what’s the rest of the story? Republican presidential candidates who will talk candidly Leading into the announcement, there was specu- about the “Red Menace” budget deficits. Such expressed lation on who the keynoter would be and, reading between candor could be enough to preempt his own candidacy. the lines, what it would mean. After U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan released his budget blue- If it was Gov. Mitch Daniels, might he use it to an- print on Tuesday, Daniels released a statement saying, nounce his presidential campaign? Or if it was a Newt or a “The House budget resolution Huck, a Mitt or a TPaw, would this be an indicator that the is the first serious proposal governor is going to stay on the produced by either party to presidential sidelines? deal with the overriding issue That Cheri Daniels is the keynoter of our time. The national debt only enhances the speculation that we are amassing threatens Daniels is preparing to take the big the livelihood and the liberty dip. Real Clear Politics reporter Erin of every single American, and McPike reported on March 11 that in particular the life prospects the First Lady may be “the decider” of our young people. Anyone on his presidential aspirations. “The criticizing this plan without decision is in the hands of his wife,” offering a specific and equally said former New Hampshire Gov. bold program of his own has John Sununu. “I know for sure she failed in the public duty to be has the final say on this campaign.” honest and clear with Ameri- Other sources have told HPI similar cans about the gravest danger things. During the 2008 reelection we are facing together.” campaign, Daniels consistently In an email to HPI, cited the “Cheri Daniels term limits” Daniels said that the Ryan plan when asked if he would ever seek on Medicare is “exactly the another elected office. right direction. I proposed this Now the First Hoosier Couple will approach in the CPAC speech, be faced with widespread specula- so was already on record tion on what SHE will say. Will the there.” The governor stressed, First Lady give the Governor her “Please don’t fail to report that imprimatur to run? Or will she talk it has no effect on those 55 and over. It is necessary so about reading to elementary kids in Logansport or Scotts- that younger people can have a program, too.” burg and even rural Brown County? Daniels added, “An overwhelming percentage of The First Lady did not surface much during the governors (especially if you ask the Democrats off the 2004 gubernatorial campaigns, but gradually over the record) favor a block grant. The states could serve people years she has taken a more conspicuous role. This year better and reduce cost if freed from the grip of the federal she headed a state employee food drive and has been ap- bureaucracy.” pearing at elementary schools around the state in recent Asked about New York Times columnist David months. Brooks calling the Ryan plan the basic budget plank for the Indiana Republican Chairman said, 2012 GOP platform, as well as the blueprint for the GOP “We are delighted to have Cheri Daniels address our an- presidential nominee, Daniels told HPI, “My basic statement nual dinner. Hoosier Republicans will have an opportunity means I think Brooks is correct.” to hear firsthand what it’s like to be first lady of our great state as Mrs. Daniels shares stories and observations from the road.” The First Lady will speak That sounds more like stories of literacy outreach Clues, clues, give us clues. to kids than a “I’m going to give Mitch to the American HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011 The governor’s blind side By SHAW FRIEDMAN LAPORTE - We all know this governor can an- nounce cuts on the spending side. Heck, this is a guy who proudly wore the moniker “the Blade” when he was Presi- dent Bush’s budget director. Why, just last week we saw further evidence of the governor’s willingness to slash and gash services for kids and families when it was announced that the state’s appro- priation for the Family and Children’s Fund – which pays for placements and services for abused and neglected children and juvenile delinquents – was being cut 25% for this com- ing fiscal year, just $336 million dollar from $445 million in people.” the current fiscal year. Of recent Hoosier First Ladies, it was Judy Those are real-life kids we’re talking about. O’Bannon that played the most conspicuous public profile. Abused and neglected kids who depend on services from Now we are faced with perhaps the most anticipated First the state. The counties have been starved of funding to Lady speech in Hoosier history. take care of those most in need, and we have a governor simply Daniels AEI speech throwing his hands up in the air Another tea leaf will occur on May 4 - just days declaring there’s no more money after the schedule sine die of the at the state to fund services like - when Daniels will address the American Enterprise In- these at needed levels. stitute in Washington on education reform. It will give the What the governor con- governor a conspicuous perch to herald his Indiana educa- sistently and utterly refuses to tion initiatives that are on track for passage. consider is the ‘revenue” side. Mitch Daniels continues to blindly The Christie Primary overlook that it is tax cuts for the Politico reported that three Republican White very wealthy and the tax shelters House aspirants - Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and Haley and dodges used by many of our Barbour - have made the trip to Drumthwacket seeking the largest corporations that are rob- endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Sources bing state government of its ability close to Christie indicate that he’s closest to Barbour to provide these most basic services. and Daniels but also has a relationship with Romney and Remember, this was a governor who once told the Pawlenty. “He’s going to be deliberate about it,” said Mike national press that the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy would DuHaime, a Christie adviser. “And there’s no guarantee that have “zero” impact on the deficit. As Joe Scarborough he’ll endorse anybody.” wrote in Politico not long ago, we can’t forget that Mitch Daniels “was a central player on the economic team that Obama reelect staff took us directly into a budget crisis” and that the “national debt exploded to record levels” during Daniels’ tenure at Here is the senior staff of the 2012 reelection OMB. campaign of President Obama: Jim Messina, Campaign Again, it’s the governor’s blind side: A refusal Manager; Jen O’Malley-Dillon, Deputy Campaign Manager; to understand that government still must take in a reason- Julianna Smoot, Deputy Campaign Manager; Rufus Gifford, able level of tax revenue from those most able to pay. How Director of Finance; Liz Lowery, Deputy Finance Director; is it possible that GE could just turn $14 billion in profit and Ben LaBolt, Press Secretary; Katie Hogan, Deputy Press not owe any federal taxes? Indeed, media reports indi- Secretary; Mitch Stewart, Battleground States Director; Jer- cate that through shrewd use of rules allowing offshoring emy Bird, National Field Director; Marlon Marshall, Deputy of profits and taking advantage of numerous tax shelters National Field Director. Marshall served as field director in and dodges, U.S. taxpayers will actually owe GE some $4 Nevada, Ohio and Indiana for ’s Presidential billion. The same happens at the state level with corporate campaign in 2007 and 2008 before joining the Obama income taxes now providing a paltry share of state rev- campaign. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

enue. Daniels’ Revenue Department announced early in endless tax incentives, state investment in public services is the governor’s first term that it was going to contract with what best stimulates growth and creates jobs. a firm to try to collect more from scofflaw corporations. I know that kind of investment in people and Whatever happened to that effort? infrastructure is anathema to this governor and his cadre Instead, this governor’s blind side wants even of true market believers. But it’s time they stop being more relief for the largest corporations. Despite what his blind and start understanding that state government needs IEDC brain trust led by Mitch Roob is now touting in bill- revenue to operate. Allowing our biggest, most profitable boards that we can induce Illinois business to relocate here corporations and the very wealthy to skate on paying their with their goofy “Illinoyed” ad campaign stressing lower fair share is simply turning a ‘blind eye’ to the problem. v corporate taxes, a new study just released by Purdue Calu- met Professor Amlan Mitra says the very opposite. Profes- Shaw Friedman is a LaPorte attorney who is a regu- sor Mitra’s research says that far better than tax cuts and lar HPI contributor.

U.S. Senate Gregg inches closer This is the Rothenberg Political Report’s take on the 2012 U.S. Senate Republican primary: Six-term Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar ended 2010 with to candidacy after Lake, more than $2.3 million in the bank. Unfortunately for Lugar, his war chest is about the only reason to think that he Southern J-J swing might have a chance of winning a seventh term next year. The 78-year-old (he turns 79 on Monday) Republican has By BRIAN A. HOWEY put together a remarkable and admirable career of pub- INDIANAPOLIS - On Tuesday, former House Speak- lic service. The 1998 edition of Congressional Quarterly’s er John Gregg was making the rounds in Lake County. Politics in America called his speeches as a presidential can- “I’ve got a JJ Thursday in Madison,” he said of the didate both “meaty and serious” and “plodding and color- Jefferson County Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner. “Friday in less.” Brazil and two on Saturday in But Lugar’s style isn’t a huge liability in Indiana, Scottsburg and Salem.” which elects low-key people such as former Sen. Evan Bayh It is a gubernatorial-style (D), Sen. Dan Coats (R) and Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), not schedule for what appears to colorful characters such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) be the next big Democratic and Al Franken (D-Minn.) and former Minnesota Gov. Jesse gubernatorial campaign. Ventura (I). At least one Democrat An American Viewpoint poll conducted for the - Senate Minority Leader Vi Senator in October showed Lugar with high favorable and Simpson - expects Gregg to low unfavorable ratings, and in 2006 Indiana Democrats take the plunge. “I met with him yesterday and he sounds didn’t even nominate someone to run against him. like a candidate,” Simpson said on Tuesday. “I think he’ll Unfortunately for Lugar, things have changed in In- announce soon.” diana as they have elsewhere. The fact that he lives in Vir- Simpson reiterated what she has been saying: ginia surely will become an issue in his bid for re-election, that she, Gregg and U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly are in frequent while the fact that he was nominated for the Nobel Peace communication via phone. “We talk every week,” she said. Prize in 2000 or was a Rhodes scholar probably means But if Gregg jumps in, that won’t necessarily pre- little now. In fact, Lugar’s emphasis on crafting legislation clude her own gubernatorial considerations. “If he goes, it to attract broad support, his efforts to solve problems in does not enter into my thought process,” Simpson said. She ways that go beyond knee-jerk left-right approaches and added that her chief concerns are that the Democratic base his disinclination toward sharp, polarizing rhetoric leave him - labor, minorities, gays and lesbians - are represented. “I increasingly vulnerable in this day and age. think it’s important that our ticket represent everybody,” Moreover, instead of ingratiating himself with she said. conservatives and the Tea Party, Lugar has been more than Gregg, meanwhile, is feeling the love. “I’m en- willing to poke them in the eye, as he did when he sup- thused, I’m excited because Hoosier Dems are excited and ported Senate approval of the Strategic Arms Reduction enthused. I’m getting a great reception.” Treaty and the DREAM Act, opposed the ban on earmarks, and expressed support for the assault weapons ban. Last HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

cycle, when I interviewed then-candidate Coats, a main- Lugar” given that there has been a waning of Tea Party stream conservative never known as an ideologue or one of popularity nationally, and a recent Pew Research Poll is not the Senate’s more intense partisans, I was surprised how picking up as ferocious anti-incumbency sentiment as we readily and heartily he embraced the Tea Party movement. saw in 2010. It will be impossible to gauge that element Lugar, in contrast, has been dismissive of the Tea until the current government shutdown saga ends. The Tea Party, refusing to back off of his longtime agenda or pander Party could emerge from that as a key player in a discred- to conservatives with his votes or his rhetoric. Lugar’s ited fiasco or come out stronger than ever. stubbornness — or dedication to principle, if you prefer Having said that, we have been startled at the — has earned him a formidable primary opponent and width and breadth of anti-Lugar sentiments in various the opposition of three-quarters of GOP county chairmen, Republican pockets around the state. A number of Repub- who already are backing state Treasurer Richard Mour- lican legislators - particularly from rural areas - tell us that dock. Mourdock, who will almost certainly be Lugar’s main constituents complain to them about Lugar and his votes primary opponent, is wooing conservatives, including Tea for Supreme Court justices Sotomayor and Kagen than just Party activists, who aren’t likely to make the same mistake about any other issue. that they did in 2010, when multiple Tea Party primary There is still more than a year for this race to take candidates divided the conservative vote and handed Coats shape and a great deal can happen between now and a the nomination. But the state treasurer’s profile isn’t that year from now when this race heads into the homestretch. of a pure outsider. Not only does he begin with the support Lugar could face multiple primary opponents. He could of dozens of GOP county leaders, but he has been running have a health problem. He has a pool of independent vot- for office and serving in government for years. Mourdock ers that could be attracted into a GOP primary. Mourdock ran for Congress in 1990 and 1992 before winning election could be discredited with the Tea Party movement, or he to the Vanderburgh County Commission in the mid-1990s. could be energized by it. We don’t know whether he can He served there until 2002. Four years later, he was elected raise the kind of money that spilled into the discredited state treasurer, and last year he was re-elected to that of- 2010 campaigns of Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and fice. Sharon Angle in Nevada, but if he can that would provide Still, his campaign website bio clearly portrays him a dimension never seen in an Indiana U.S. Senate primary in an ideological light: “A solid conservative, Richard is a (in 2010 the five-man field had trouble scrapping together popular speaker at Republican events and Tea Party rallies enough for one campaign). We still believe this is Lugar’s alike. Richard’s conservative message of constitutionally race to lose. Horse Race Status: Leans Lugar limited government was heard by over one million people during the 9-12 March on Washington in 2009.” Mour- Mayoral races dock’s Senate campaign website also includes a “Lugar vs. Mourdock” section that portrays Lugar as a far-left admirer and supporter of President Barack Obama. The section Bloomington includes some accurate and fair information, but it also has Democrat: Mayor Mark Kruzan, John Hamilton, John its share of outrageous and over-the-top assertions that Gusan. 2007 Results: Kruzan (D) 5,937, Sabbagh (R) are obviously misleading. For example, in asserting that 3,729. Outlook: Hamilton’s wife, IU Law Professor Dawn “Lugar appeared in a campaign television advertisement for Johnsen, announced a rally with former congressman Lee Obama during the 2008 presidential election,” it clearly mis- Hamilton at 3 p.m. Saturday at 3rd and Grant Streets. leads the reader to believe that Lugar offered some sort of Kruzan announced Monday his plan to improve services testimonial for Obama. The truth is that Obama’s campaign provided for senior citizens in the city (Auslen, Indiana used Lugar’s image in a TV spot about nuclear prolifera- Daily Student). Hamilton countered later with claims that tion to present Obama in a bipartisan light and to tap the Kruzan made similar promises in 2003, which still have not Republican’s reputation for thoughtfulness. been met. “While much is being done by the public and Whatever you think of Mourdock’s characteriza- private sectors to improve livability, a lot of those deci- tion of Lugar’s record, the Senator’s 35-year career in the sions are made by people who are younger and mobile and chamber gives the challenger plenty of ammunition in a don’t always address the needs of the disabled, less able primary. Given the direction of the GOP these days and the and older citizens,” Kruzan said. Kruzan highlighted some public’s continued desire of change, it would be a stunning of the actions made by his administration and outlined his achievement if Lugar were to win renomination next year in plans for the future of the city’s senior citizen services. a one-on-one race. These plans include developing senior-oriented housing HPI’s take: We disagree with the final statement of options downtown, the creation of a new senior center in the Rothenberg assessment. HPI rates this race as “Leans the downtown area, working with social service agencies HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

to ensure senior citizens are being effectively helped by the County Councilman David Ashe, Harry Housour. 2007 Re- city and creating an Adopt-a-Neighbor program for younger sults: Mayor Moore was finally released from the hospital citizens to help elderly neighbors, among other things. this week after a tough bout with the flu. Moore is 76 years “Further establishing Bloomington as a retiree and senior old. Another health issue and this could be a race in the friendly community is both a way to improve livability for fall. Horse Race Status: Likely Moore more of our neighbors as well as another way to bolster the economy. It’s another way for us to set our community Evansville apart,” Kruzan said. Democrat: Vanderburgh County Treasurer Rick Davis, Troy Hamilton reacted later with accusations that Kru- Tornatta. Republican: Vanderburgh Commissioner Lloyd zan’s promises were nothing but talk. “Mark Kruzan is very Winnecke, Douglas De Groot. 2007 Results: Weinzapfel good and experienced at holding press conferences in the (D) 13,097, Nixon (R) 2,268. Outlook: The Democratic month before an election to announce new plans,” Ham- battle looks like a classic party establishment (Tornatta) ilton said in a statement to the press. “After eight years, versus upstart grassroots insurgent (Davis). Tornatta has though, he’s not proven effective at getting things done raised a fair amount of money, primarily through tradi- and following through on specific plans.” Hamilton also tional Democrat donors and his ally Mayor Weinzapfel. It’s released a Kruzan press release from Oct. 7, 2003, which been confirmed that he’ll be spending a good chunk of it made several suggestions for improving senior citizen on TV ads these last weeks before the election (about 179 services that have not yet been implemented, including a GRP). As for Davis, his chief method of attack is door-to- job referral program and improvements to the city’s vol- door knocking with a core group of volunteers. However, unteer network. “I’m running for mayor because I believe because Davis has been shut out by the party apparatus, Bloomington needs to see more results, not more press he does not have a good list of primary Democrat vot- conferences,” Hamilton said. “When someone promises ers. Thus, his door-to-door tactics are very inefficient and something to the community, it should get done. When I’m essentially involve knocking on every door in any given mayor, that’s what I’ll do.” neighborhood. Davis also has a few TV spots running, but Hamilton presented his neighborhood plans last it’s not as extensive as Tornatta’s will be. Up until this past week. “As Mayor, I will make neighborhood renewal and weekend Davis has been winning the yard sign battle, and enhancement an immediate priority,” Hamilton said. but Tornatta went on a big binge recently with large signs “That means helping encourage home ownership, creat- and appears to have made up some ground on that front. ing affordable housing, and working to reclaim vacant or Winnecke will open his headquarters on Friday. Primary degraded properties across the city.” Horse Race Status: Tossup Look for a public endorsement of Kruzan from Sen- ate Minority Leader Vi Simpson soon. Horse Race Status: Fort Wayne Leans Kruzan Democrats: Mayor Tom Henry, Frederick Steinke, Tom Cook, Charles Eberhard, D.C. “Mr. Roachclip” Roach. Re- Carmel publicans: Councilwoman , Eric Doden, Paula Republican: Mayor James Brainard, Councilman John Hughes, Fred Osheskie Sr., Terrence Richard Walker. 2007 Acceturo. 2007 Results: Brainard 9,192. Winckler (D) Results: Henry 31,740, Kelty (R) 21,163. Outlook: Allen 2,068, Spiegelman (I) 2,557. Outlook: Brainard picked up County Right to Life endorsed Hughes on Wednesday. “I the endorsements from the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board am honored to receive the endorsement of the Allen Coun- of REALTORS Political Action Committee (MPAC) and the ty Right to Life PAC,” Hughes said. Today Brown claimed Carmel FOP Lodge 185. “We believe that these candidates the endorsement, saying, “This endorsement is indicative have the experience and leadership that the City of Carmel of the fact that Liz Brown has a proven record of social needs to keep it a safe place to work and raise a family,” conservatism.” A call to ACRTL was not returned by dead- said Charlie Driver, Carmel FOP President. “The Carmel line. Hughes has sent out four direct mail pieces in what FOP looks forward to working with each of them in the fu- appears to be an aggressive mail campaign. In contrast, ture.” He further stated “We believe that these incumbent Doden has sent out one mailer. Brown is running radio candidates have a distinguished track record of dedicated ads on WOWO and is in a developing sign campaign with service to the community, and will continue to strive for ex- Hughes. Hughes unveiled her plan to use Internet-based cellence if elected to another term.” Horse Race Status: reverse auctions to reduce procurement costs. A reverse Leans Brainard auction switches the roles of buyers and sellers from a typical auction. In an ordinary auction, buyers compete to Elkhart obtain a good or service, and prices increase over time. In Democrat: Mayor Dick Moore. Republican: Elkhart a reverse auction, sellers compete to obtain business, and HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 14 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

prices decrease over time. Reverse auctions became popu- the city is not allowed and firearms are not allowed in lar in the late 1990’s with the growth of the Internet. “We parks, but Kauffman said the bill would change that. Kauff- need to come up with better ways to make government man and the Indiana Association of Cities and Towns ques- more efficient and cost-effective,” Hughes said. “Online tion how easy it will be to prove that a person was neg- reverse auctions will flip the purchasing roles for goods and ligent if a bullet from a person’s backyard target practice services on its head. Taxpayers will benefit from increased goes astray. Kauffman also wondered what priority police competition for City business.” Overall government spend- would give to callers who say they have heard the sounds ing has become the issue of starkest difference in the race of shooting if carrying and shooting firearms becomes for mayor. “My opponents have made much about the commonplace. Sen. , R-Blairsville, authored the virtues of spending,” Hughes said. “I believe we should be bill and said that other Indiana state laws, including those looking for ways to spend less of your money and find ways about reckless endangerment and noise ordinances, still to stretch each dollar further. That is the difference in the would prohibit shooting firearms for practice or fun. SB mayoral election.” Primary Horse Race Status: Leans 292 is about uniform laws across the state, Tomes said. It Brown would allow people to carry firearms consistently through the state and give more time to police and other officials to Gary focus on criminal activity rather than regulating lists of ordi- Democrat: Mayor Rudy Clay, Councilwoman Ragen nances, he explained. “I don’t want to put those people in Hatcher, Karen Freeman-Wilson, Larry Evans, Harold Foster, that situation where they can’t defend themselves,” he said. Robert L. Lewis, Lester L. (Chip) Lowe Jr., Saba S. Moham- “It’s doing nothing more than saying ‘Enough is enough.’ med, Richard L. Nash, Jeffery L. Tatum. Republican: Let’s lay off the good people and focus on the criminal ele- Charles R. Smith Jr. 2007 Results: Clay 8,529, Smith (R) ment.” Kauffman also contacted legislators about HB1543, 2,569. Outlook: Despair, apathy and broken promises in a bill outlawing rental-registration programs like Goshen’s, the Steel City have driven most of Mayor Clay’s challengers that will be heard in the Senate’s local government com- to run for his job this spring. That’s what they told the Post- mittee this afternoon. Like SB292, Kauffman said HB1543 Tribune in a series of conversations about the Gary mayoral also infringes on home rule. Horse Race Status: Likely primary election on May 3, which could be one of its most Kauffman significant in decades. Clay looked back at his first term in office and said, even through all of the turmoil, “we still got Indianapolis support from the people in the community.That was a good Republican: Mayor Greg Ballard. Democrats: Sam Car- feeling, should I say,” Clay said (Post-Tribune). “The people son, Ron Gibson, Melina Kennedy. 2007 Results: Ballard supported us on what we’re doing. Understood what we (D) 83,238, Peterson, Bart (D) 77,926, Peterson, Fred (L) were going through. That was the inspiration that I got.” 3,787. Outlook: Kennedy took issue with Ballard over a But Freeman-Wilson said her hometown is now “at its most gun amnesty program. “I am alarmed by the Mayor’s ap- dire place,” even more so than when she ran against Clay parent disconnect with his own public safety office.” Last four years ago. “Our financial affairs are in shambles,” Free- week, the Mayor stated in the Indianapolis Star that he was man-Wilson said. “Our citizens are demoralized. I talk to clearly against gun amnesty programs, yet the next day people. They really have lost hope in terms of our ability to the Mayor’s office revealed details about his upcoming gun rebound and be where everyone once knew we could be.” amnesty program, which would prevent guns from being Hatcher vowed to tap wind power industry to lead tested to determine if they were used in crimes; destroy the city to a comeback. She said the initial cost of building evidence needed to solve ongoing murder and violent 15 wind turbines could be covered by a federal tax credit. crimes; and allow violent offenders to walk free. “The She said the turbines could be built in six months on city- Mayor committed to take control of public safety, but it is owned lakefront property in the U.S. Steel footprint, and clear by his own office proposing a gun amnesty program Gary could sell the energy they produce to Northern Indi- he said he questioned just the day before, that he has lost ana Public Service Co. “Gary needs a facelift, it needs to be all control,” Kennedy stated. Horse Race Status: Leans reinvented,” Hatcher said. Horse Race Status: Leans Clay Ballard

Goshen Hammond Democrat: Mayor Alan Kauffman, Mike Hanes. Repub- Democrat: Mayor Thomas McDermott, Oscar Sanchez. lican: Kauffman took aim at SB292, saying that the bill is Republican: George Janiec, Humberto Prado, David Hack- not about the Second Amendment or trying to take away er, Matthew Saliga, Jeff MacDonald, Rob Pastore. 2007 people’s guns, but is about public safety. Shooting within Results: McDermott (D) 5,289, Janiec (R) 4,802. Out- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 15 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

look: Prado and Andrade were fined by the Lake County important because the next mayor will have to find ways Election Board for failing to file basic campaign paperwork. to help existing businesses expand and draw new employ- Times columnist Mark Kiesling wrote this week: “When it ers to the city. “This election is about jobs, and the top comes to politics, Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott Jr. is priority of the next mayor has to be on putting people to a belt-and-suspenders kind of guy. I have no inside word work in good jobs,” Buttigieg said. “I have the most experi- on whether that extends to his wardrobe, though. But ence when it comes to business and economics,” he said. what I’m saying is that he is careful and learns from the “I’m the only candidate who has been involved in multibil- past, which is why this whole mess with Republican chal- lion dollar decisions in the private sector, with some of the lenger George Janiec is taking place. McDermott barely world’s top firms.” Jack Colwell, Tribune political columnist, beat Janiec four years ago, when he squeaked across the agreed. “I think it helps him quite a bit,” Colwell said, “be- finish line with a victory margin of fewer than 500 votes. cause a lot of people who normally vote Republican (and When Janiec won a seat on the Hammond School Board are Chamber members) are going to vote in the Democratic last year, McDermott breathed a sigh of relief, hoping this primary because they know that’s really going to be the would keep Janiec from filing for mayor this year. But the election.” (See Jack Colwell column on page 14 for more mayor was wrong, and he has had one of his city appoin- analysis). Horse Race Status: Tossup tees challenge Janiec, who has lost his bid before the Lake County elections board and last week lost his appeal before Terre Haute Lake Superior Court Judge Jesse Villalpando. Janiec’s law- Democrat: Fred Nation, Harrison Township Assessor Mick yer, R. Cordell Funk, says he will continue to pursue this to Love, Clarence Sloughers. Republican: Mayor Duke Ben- the Indiana Court of Appeals and to the Indiana Supreme nett. 2007 Results: Bennett (R) 6,055, Burke (D) 5,948. Court if necessary to get Janiec on the May 3 ballot. It will Outlook: At a candidate forum sponsored by the League be interesting to see what happens when the case moves of Women Voters of Vigo County, Mick Love, Fred Nation out of Democratic Lake County. The elections board has a and Clarence Soughers took questions from an audience of Democratic majority (the clerk votes as an ex-officio mem- more than 100 in a library meeting room. Some differences ber), and Villalpando was a Democratic state representative in the candidates’ positions emerged during the 90-minute before being appointed to the bench. I’m not saying there forum. Nation, for example, expressed strong support for is any provable, direct correlation between the two deci- the so-called “Riverscape” plan to develop property along sions against Janiec being made by partisan Democrats in both sides of the Wabash River. Love, on the other hand, a county where McDermott also wears the hat of county said while he favored possibly improving the riverfront near Democratic Party chairman. Still, I’d kind of feel better Interstate 70, “our tax dollars could be better spent else- about the whole thing if there was some kind of more or where.” On the topic of animal control, Love indicated he less detached onlooker, well, looking on.” Horse Race would favor more city support for the Terre Haute Humane Status: Leans McDermott Society. “They need a bigger building out there,” Love said. “We have to help the Humane Society however we South Bend can help them.” Nation, meanwhile, called a “community Democrats: State Rep. Ryan Dvorak, St. Joseph Council- animal shelter” an “intriguing idea” and promised to visit man Mike Hamman, Rev. Barrett Berry, Peter Buttigieg. Bloomington to see how that city deals with stray animals. Republican: Wayne Curry, Will Taylor and Bill Davis. 2007 “I pledge as mayor I will face those (animal control) is- Results: Luecke (D) 12,355, Manigault (R) 7,471. Out- sues,” he said. Nation expressed strong support for existing look: The Chamber of Commerce of St. Joseph County and possible future bike paths, saying they are great for is endorsing in South Bend’s Democratic energy savings and health. “We need to see more bicycles,” mayoral primary race, the group announced Thursday Nation said. Love said he sees little need to improve safety (South Bend Tribune). Although the Chamber in recent on the city’s bike paths. “I don’t know how you could be years has started endorsing school board candidates, this any safer,” he said. The three candidates avoided attack- is the first time it has endorsed a mayoral candidate, said ing each other during the forum. And only Nation took the Chamber President and CEO Jeff Rea. The Chamber asked opportunity to criticize the current mayor, Duke Bennett, candidates to fill out an extensive questionnaire, and then a Republican. Nation accused Bennett’s administration of brought them in for “an exhaustive day” of interviews, Rea failing to deliver on what he said was a promise to move said. After the candidates’ forum that the Chamber co- the city’s police headquarters to a new location. And Na- sponsored Tuesday night at Century Center, members of tion expressed strong opposition to Bennett’s plans to use a committee met and realized they were most impressed an existing pond on former International Paper property by Buttigieg, Rea said. “The Chamber felt Pete presented to store CSO as part of the city’s long-term plan. That is a a great energy and enthusiasm, and the real spark that “step backward,” Nation said. Primary Horse Race Sta- is needed,” Rea said. Buttigieg said the endorsement is tus: Leans Nation v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 16 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

seen as standing up for labor and teachers and frustrat- Poll shows Dvorak, ing political plans of Gov. Mitch Daniels could be a plus for Dvorak in the Democratic primary. Buttigieg in dead heat Still, Dvorak, with by far the highest name recog- nition as the race began, is in trouble if Buttigieg already By JACK COLWELL has caught up, as the poll indicates. The Dvorak name has SOUTH BEND - A professional poll conducted in been magic on the ballot. Both Ryan and his father, Pros- mid-March showed Pete Buttigieg and Ryan Dvorak in a vir- ecutor Mike Dvorak, won decisively again last fall. tual tie for the Democratic nomination for mayor of South Mike Schmuhl, Buttigieg’s campaign manager, Bend, each with about 30 percent of the vote. who agreed to provide full details about the portion of the The other two active candidates for the nomina- poll involving the question of voter support, said Buttigieg tion, Mike Hamann and Barrett Berry, trailed well off the actually was ahead in percentages, 32 to 30. But with the pace. But nearly a quarter of the 400 likely Democratic vot- margin for error, the race could only be described as a ers surveyed were undecided. virtual tie at the time of polling. The poll was conducted by County Councilman Hamann, though shown far the Feldman Group, a national back at 12 percent, has since the poll got his campaign political consulting firm, and rolling with billboards and a flurry of yard signs. His cam- was paid for by the Buttigieg paign had seemed to stall earlier, in part because of some campaign. It was a professional defections to Buttigieg in organization support on which he sampling, not one of those counted. But with nearly a quarter of the vote found to be “push” polls designed to spread undecided, there is time and opportunity for Hamann to negative messages about an improve on that mid-March snapshot of support. opponent and influence the Berry, shown at 4 percent in the poll, began the findings. The statistical margin campaign as an unknown politically in South Bend. He cites for error was plus or minus 5 impressive credentials in federal government experience percentage points. during the Clinton administration and has been thought- The poll means a lot. ful on the issues. The African-American minister hopes to But not as much as it might seem. make it a real four-candidate race and then win with strong First, it shows what already was becoming clear, African-American support if the other three split pretty that Buttigieg, the former Rhodes Scholar who touts his evenly. private enterprise economic development experience, has How the African-American vote splits will be impor- momentum in the race, even though many voters still have tant. trouble with pronunciation (Boota-judge) of his name. He is Whether anyone can tap the potential power of the getting endorsements from prominent Democrats, some of Latino vote also could be a key. Buttigieg, who speaks flu- whom were initially leaning toward other candidates. And ent Spanish, hopes to have an advantage there. he is raising by far the most in campaign funding. Also, how many voters who usually support Adding to the momentum is the endorsement of Republicans will vote in the Democratic primary? Because Buttigieg on Friday by the Chamber of Commerce of St. the winner of the Democratic primary will be regarded as Joseph County. It came after a two-hour public “conversa- certain to be elected mayor in the fall, and due to cru- tion” with the candidates and other evaluation. cial decisions for a new mayor on the city’s future, some In effect, the Chamber agreed with Buttigieg’s Republicans, maybe quite a few, will seek a voice in the contention that, while he is the youngest candidate, age Democratic primary this time. 29, he has the best credentials for mayor - education, The Republican nominee is expected to be Wayne economic development experience with a large consulting Curry, who held his own in the Chamber “conversation” firm and understanding of innovative approaches to city with the candidates. v problems. Wait. Colwell has covered politics over five decades for Momentum now doesn’t necessarily mean a May 3 the South Bend Tribune. Democratic primary victory. Dvorak, a state representative in the walkout by House Democrats, is back. And Dvorak and the other Democrats legislators got a hero’s welcome from protesters opposing the House Republican majority’s agenda. Being HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 17 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

and for the other (2011), history is being recorded. The Wish they stayed in Illinois House R’s had it all in 1995 with a 56-44 majority that resulted from the Republican wave in the 1994 elections. By RUSS STILWELL And then they did the unthinkable. They made BOONVILLE - A couple of weeks ago, I talked sure the Democrat base was energized! about being “politically boxed in a corner.” We discussed They took on our public school teachers and the how to get out, what the price might be, and are you will- ISTA. They conducted an attack on labor and the building ing to pay the price? trades (remember the rallies?). And for good measure they Isn’t it funny what a couple of weeks can do to smacked around the trial lawyers and attempted mid-cen- ease the complexity for an exit strategy, particularly if you sus redistricting that caused a 10-day Democrat walkout. had not wanted one for the past month? In case you’ve The result? They rallied the Democrat base and lost their been living under a rock, “The House Democrats are Back.” majority the very next election. Prediction: In less than a week, 2011? Time will tell, but history has a strong habit the House R’s will wish the Dems of repeating itself. The R’s took on every anti-labor issue had stayed in Urbana. They will imaginable. They shredded the ISTA into pieces. They face a worn-out, issue-driven wide- made our public school teachers the scapegoat for all of awake caucus bent on making sure our education woes. And for good measure, they crossed that the issues they hold dear have the line of private vs. public and made our Hoosier state a voice. And there will be no short- the greatest provider of private vouchers for schools in the age of Democrat debate, or amend- nation. Yep, they used your Hoosier tax dollars to get the ments, for that matter. job done! Talk about choice? For the first time in a long They demonized Hoosier women with a toughest time, I suspect that many of the in the nation right to life bill. You gotta believe they were House Dems have read and reread drinking Kool-Aid when they suggested that Hoosier women each of the House R’s controversial might just “say” they are raped so they could get an abor- bills – and there are plenty of them. tion. Guess rape and incest are in. What were they think- And they have prepared and reviewed amendments. ing? Add all this together and throw it in the political blender I have often said that the Republicans always talk with a Type-A legislator who hasn’t had a chance to debate about how government doesn’t work during the campaigns, for weeks and you’re got late night sessions, pent up pas- and then they get elected and prove it. sion, and Hoosier politics at its best. And for good measure they took their agenda to a The House D’s considered how they might return whole new level of rallying the Democrat base. Stay tuned to the Capitol right after they left. Much has happened. for 2012. It should be interesting fodder. The Democrat What started as a walkout on Right to Work (and other base is energized! issues, for sure) ended up being the longest legislative What about the return of the Democrats? Will they caucus walkout in modern day history – in any state. be subdued into submission? Don’t think so. There are a myriad of still lingering issues that the House My best guess is the five-week 15-round bout the has on its calendar that will make this session interesting. House D’s sprang on the House R’s was the opening of a Did I mention project labor agreements, school vouchers, multi-bout fight. The issues are still there. The D’s are still collective bargaining, right to life and the budget? simmering over the over-reaching and the House R’s feel Political pundits, including this one, have been it’s their time. ranting for a month or more about the Democrat walkout, Not really a good recipe to sing, “Gettin’ Together,” the longest walkout in U.S. modern-day era by a state from the old Tommy James and the Shondales song from legislative caucus. It never came close to receiving the the ’60s. Those lyrics won’t make it past the first week of Wisconsin national media frenzy. But it did strengthen the long night sessions: will of a whole lot of Hoosiers on the receiving end of the “Gettin’ together is better than ever; over-reaching Republican butcher knife. Gettin’ together never felt like this before Sometimes the House Democrats just can’t help Gettin’ together is better than ever themselves. And sometimes the House Republicans, Gettin’ together” despite a sizable majority, do the unthinkable and make But the issues are so very real . . . and so very self-inflicted wounds on their political armor. partisan . . . and so very polarized. Gettin’ Together may History will record two classic wounds: 1995 and not be better than ever! Gettin’ together might be lining up 2011. For one, the history is already etched in the books for the feature fight in another 15-round fight.v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 18 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

Eric Bradner, Evansville Courier & Press: De- the GOP agenda will become law. That’s the problem with spite Indiana House Democrats’ declarations of victory, Indiana Republicans. They think their victories last fall were their party’s constituents are going to learn that five weeks a mandate to make it tougher for unions to operate in In- in Illinois did little to change — or “moderate,” as Demo- diana, virtually eliminate collective bargaining for teachers crats put it — the agenda of majority Republicans. If the and privatize schools. No, what the voters last fall said was goal was to gain influence during the course of this year’s that things were moving too slowly in the U.S. House and legislative session, two strategies seemed to make sense Senate and that some changes were needed. The momen- for the Democrats. The first was to leave the Statehouse tum of that unrest rolled across the country and Indiana long enough to kill the “right to work” bill that was most Republicans — for no clear reason except they were there egregious and that Republicans declared dead just hours — won control of the House. There is a real irony to this after the standoff started. Democrats could have come whole mess. Gov. Mitch Daniels early on said that if he had back with a victory and with some political capital to spend. his druthers, the so-called right-to-work legislation — that The second was to stay out a bit longer. They could have is an effort to do away with unions — would have been put returned with just enough time left for Republicans to have on the shelf. His fellow Republicans ignored him and the to choose between passing only their very top priorities Democrats were off to Illinois. And the Republicans caved or asking Gov. Mitch Daniels to call an unpopular special in without a whimper. What’s funny is that the National session. Instead, Democrats chose to split the difference. Right to Work Committee took out an ad in the Indianapolis Now, they cannot threaten to flee again. They also struck Star last week slamming Mitch and House Speaker Brian their big deal and cannot influence much more Bosma for giving in to Democrats. Don’t you just as the session ends. And though they killed love it when a species eats its own? v “right to work,” they don’t have much to show for the last 34 days of their 35-day boycott. The David Orentlicher, Politico: Rep. Ryan’s biggest issue of this year’s session is education budget plan can’t be taken seriously as a blueprint reform. Daniels, State Superintendent of Public for the country, but it can serve a useful role in Instruction Tony Bennett and legislative Repub- widening the debate and promoting consideration licans are trying to make big changes to the state’s school of new approaches. Turning Medicare into a voucher pro- system. They’ve offered about six major proposals, and gram draws on an important idea from the Committee on one of those involves private school vouchers. From Illinois, Economic Development for health care reform, but Ryan’s Democrats drew concessions on the vouchers bill, but it’s version needs some revision to make it sensible. Instead important to note just how small those concessions were. of assigning a dollar value to the voucher, the government Democrats are claiming credit for lowering the income cap could make it worth the full cost of the lowest-cost plan so that the program is targeted toward the poorest Hoo- in the market that provides a reasonable level of benefits siers, but they don’t quite deserve it. That change was one (e.g, the health care law’s “essential health benefits”). If House Republicans were planning even before the boycott. Medicare recipients chose a more expensive plan, they Democrats also are claiming credit for lowering the caps on would be responsible for paying the difference in cost. The how many students can enter the program in its first and Committee’s approach might actually make competition second years by 25 percent. While that claim is accurate, it work in health care. But Ryan would be even better off does not mean much in the long run because the program pushing for reform in the way we pay for the health care is uncapped in year threes and forever after that. Other we receive. As long as doctors and hospitals make more by than that, the voucher bill looks like Republicans imagined doing more, they will provide too much unnecessary care. it would, and Republicans’ other education reforms are v proceeding unencumbered. v Doug Ross, NWI Times: The prospect of a govern- Rich James, Post-Tribune: Sometimes the bully ment shutdown is not good. Americans deserve better than ends up getting the worst of things. Kind of like the day that. They want the assurance that Social Security checks Ralphie knocked the snot out of Scut Farkas in “A Christ- will arrive on time; the promise that appointments for med- mas Story.” Kind of like Indiana Republicans who watched ical care at VA clinics will be kept; the comfort of knowing House Democrats return triumphantly from Urbana, Ill., the military will continue to function. I’ve heard many hard- after a five-week standoff with the GOP. And what makes core Republicans say they don’t want their newly elected me think the House Democrats won? They wouldn’t have congressmen and senators to compromise. The same is come back if they hadn’t. State Republican Chairman Eric true of many hard-core Democrats. I have news for them: Holcomb saw it differently, saying that when the final gavel Congress is all about compromise. Failure to compromise comes down on the General Assembly in late April that isn’t an honor; it’s simply failure. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 19 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

the third-highest rated program on all Agency. St. Joseph County did without Judge to rule on of cable news, by the end of the year, $35.6 million in 2010 because of the Charlie today Beck and Fox News chairman and property tax caps. That’s 12.4 percent chief executive Roger Ailes announced of the county’s budget. Marion County, INDIANAPOLIS - A judge will Wednesday. the state’s largest, saw $79.2 million in decide Thursday afternoon whether property tax credits, but that com- a lawsuit challenging Charlie White’s prised only 7.3 percent of its budget. eligibility to serve as secretary of state Caps hitting Madison County lost more than $29 should move forward (Indianapolis million. Vigo County saw the impact of Star). Marion Circuit Court Judge Louis counties hard the caps nearly triple between 2009 F. Rosenberg heard arguments this MUNCIE - Indiana homeown- and 2010, leaving it to cover $15 afternoon and promised to make a ers and businesses have seen their million — or about 14 percent of its decision quickly. tax bills cut by more than $655 million budget. Last December, since the General Assembly approved the Democrats property tax caps in 2008. But the filed a lawsuit savings have come at the expense of Delaware Co. lays challenging the local governments, which have been Indiana Recount off 2 bailiffs forced to cut millions and reduce Commission’s services to compensate for the lost MUNCIE - The Delaware ruling that revenue (Associated Press). Gov. Mitch County Board of Judges on Wednes- White, who was registered at an old Daniels says the caps make Indiana’s day announced that in the wake of address when he filed his candidacy, property taxes some of the lowest in county government’s budget woes, was still eligible to run. The Demo- the nation. The caps limit property two of its six riding bailiffs would be crats say a law that requires secretary tax bills to 1 percent of a home’s as- laid off effective today (Muncie Star of state candidates to be registered sessed values, with caps of 2 percent Press). “We wanted to be proactive to vote means that they must be for farmland and rental property and 3 and to help with the financial crisis,” registered legally. Karen Celestino- percent for business property. Law- said Circuit Court 3 Judge Linda Ralu Horseman, who’s representing the makers amended them into the state Wolf, the local court system’s presiding Democrats, said the Indiana Recount constitution in November in hopes of judge. Commission’s claim that White simply making them more difficult to undo. had to be registered to vote is “ab- Daniels told The Associated Press he surd.” Attorney James Bopp claims the sees a need for consolidation of “re- Senate defeats Democrats only trying to get Demo- dundant” local units that are too small crat Vop Osili, whom White defeated to operate efficiently. “I think where smoke ban bill by a large margin, into the office. If there was overspending, (the tax caps Rosenberg sides with the Democrats, INDIANAPOLIS - A proposed are) bringing discipline,” Daniels said. he could allow the challenge to move statewide smoking ban for Indiana has “In places where spending is more forward in court or send it back to the been defeated in a state Senate com- reasonable, there’s still more opportu- Recount Commission. But if not, the mittee, with several members saying nity for reform at the local level.” But Democrats’ challenge would be dead they opposed the many exemptions it for counties like Delaware, Madison, unless they decide to appeal. Even if included (Indianapolis Star). The Sen- Marion and St. Joseph, the caps have the civil challenge fails, White could ate Public Policy Committee voted 8-1 instead brought about painful deci- still lose his job if he’s convicted of today against the bill that had exemp- sions about what government can pay any of the seven felony charges filed tions for casinos, bars, fraternal clubs, for. Delaware County, which has the against him in Hamilton County. smoke shops and nursing homes. smallest population of the hardest-hit American Cancer Society opposed counties at 117,000 residents, record- the proposed ban on the grounds Beck leaving ed the highest per-capita loss, with a that it would be one of the weakest $25.4 million drop in revenue in 2010. in the country. Committee Chairman Fox News That loss accounted for nearly 15 per- of Lafayette didn’t allow cent of the county’s budget in 2010, senators to consider removing any of NEW YORK - Glenn Beck will according to an analysis prepared by the exemptions that were in the bill leave his daily show on Fox News , the nonpartisan Legislative Services approved by the House. Alting said HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 20 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 7, 2011

those exemptions were needed to win Adoption bill change the way it disinfects the city’s enough votes to pass. drinking water (Fort Wayne Journal headed to governor Gazette). The Board of Public Works on Wednesday approved the city’s House panel passes INDIANAPOLIS - Legislation request to seek financing from the co-sponsored by State Sen. Jean Leis- Indiana State Revolving Fund for the Gov toll road bill ing (R-Oldenburg) to help give Indiana estimated $22 million project to install families more adoption service options an ultraviolet disinfection system at INDIANAPOLIS - The House passed the full Senate Tuesday by a the city’s water plant. “We’ve been Roads and Transportation Commit- 50-0 vote (Howey Politics Indiana). handed another unfunded mandate,” tee approved a plan Wednesday to House Bill 1558, authored by State said Len Poehler, City Utilities deputy give the governor sole authority to Rep. Jud McMillin (R-Brookville), would director for business services. create toll roads (Indianapolis Star). once again allow out-of-state child The measure, which also eliminated a placement agencies and attorneys to provision for a 2015 expiration date on facilitate adoptions in Indiana without Grand jury for that authority, passed by a 7-5 vote. penalty. The bill’s sponsor, Sen. Tom Wyss, Penn trustee R-Fort Wayne, said giving the gover- nor the power to create public-private Lugar, Coats vote SOUTH BEND - The ghost partnerships without lawmakers’ con- employment case involving Penn sent would give Indiana the flexibility against EPA regs Township trustee Jeffrey Dean has to make better deals. “He should have been turned over to a grand jury that authority to make those kinds of WASHINGTON - Indiana’s to investigate possible charges, the decisions,” Wyss said. A version of the senators voted Wednesday to block county prosecutor’s office announced bill that would have given the gover- the Environmental Protection Agency Wednesday (South Bend Tribune). nor that power for four years -- until from enforcing regulations limiting Acting in conjunction with the State 2015 -- passed the Senate 37-12 in greenhouse gas emissions, limits Board of Accounts, Mishawaka police February. that promise to have the greatest launched an investigation into the two- effect on states such as Indiana that term Democrat in October in regard to depend heavily on coal-fired power an SBA report that questioned some Alcohol ID plants (Indianapolis Star). However, of his spending practices as trustee. In the GOP proposal to ban the EPA from particular, the report pointed out that bill stalls controlling the gases needed 60 votes Dean had failed to keep work records to pass. It failed on a 50-50 vote. “It related to a cleaning contract with em- INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana would have a huge impact on Indiana, ployee Sarah Sharp, his administrative legislators are disagreeing about how on industry, on agriculture, on every- assistant and live-in girlfriend. old someone should look before they body,” Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., said have to provide identification when of the agency’s controlling emissions buying alcohol (Evansville Courier & blamed for global warming. “It’s a Candidate left off Press). Both the House and Senate huge overreach by EPA.” Indiana is the have approved bills revising a much- seventh-largest producer of heat-trap- Hammond ballot ridiculed state law that took effect last ping gases among states, according summer requiring store clerks to card HAMMOND - A candidate in to the Union of Concerned Scientists. all carry-out alcohol customers regard- Hammond’s 1st District Democratic Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind., said the EPA’s less of their age. Those bills have said primary was left off early ballots in regulations will increase energy costs, clerks wouldn’t need to check IDs on Crown Point. Lake County election amounting to a national energy tax. customers who appear older than 40. officials notified the Election Board’s But the Senate Public Policy Commit- Democratic attorney just before 1 p.m. tee voted 6-3 on Wednesday to set Unfunded water Monday that Matthew Kolanowski, that carding provision for those ap- who is challenging incumbent Mark pearing 50 or older. The House could mandate for FW Kalwinski, didn’t appear on electronic vote today on a version of the bill that voting machine screens. (NWI Times) includes the 40-year-old ID. FORT WAYNE - Fort Wayne plans to borrow up to $30 million to