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CASCADIA HIGH SPEED RAIL Business Prospectus Brad Perkins CEO/CHSR Cascadia High Speed Rail Corridor: Business Prospectus CASCADIA HIGH SPEED RAIL September 2018 Business Prospectus Table of Contents Letter from the Chief Executive Officer 1 Section 1 Background 2 Section 2 The Proposed CHSR System 7 Section 3 CHSR Complements Air Service 10 Section 4 Capital Costs 12 Section 5 Passenger Markets 14 Section 6 Express Freight Markets 17 Section 7 Transit Oriented Development 21 Section 8 Financing 26 Section 9 Economic Returns 33 Section 10 Conclusions and Next Steps 39 Prepared and designed by: TEMS, Inc. Frederick, MD 21701 [email protected] CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS ii LETTER FROM THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER This prospectus has been developed to show the potential for developing a private consortium to build a high speed rail system for the Seattle-Eugene corridor. The consortium has carefully studied the corridor and concluded that a Business Case can be developed that would produce positive cash flows and returns for the private sector, while requiring a minimum contribution from government. The scale of the potential for the private sector initiative has been enhanced by a series of events over the last thirty years that make the market for high speed rail more and more attractive. These include – Rising socioeconomics (population/income) Increasing oil prices Increasing air and highway congestion Lower cost and faster rail technology The growth of E-commerce and express freight markets The increased potential for joint development (transit oriented development) at station locations By taking advantage of these new factors a Business Plan has been developed that shows that a public/private partnership (PPP) can change the approach to financing of a new major infrastructure since the proposed system can cover all its operating costs and 80% of its capital costs -- requiring only a 20% ($3 billion) contribution from state and federal agencies. If the states of Washington and Oregon put up $1 billion each, and the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) adds $1 billion (less than the grant given to Illinois for its 110 mph rail development program), the project can be developed as a PPP with the private sector funding the bulk of the cost. Cascadia High Speed Rail (CHSR) intends to create the PPP, by working with the states of Washington and Oregon, and creating a Board of Directors with both public and private representation. This initial prospectus contains an offer of 50 million shares to raise $10 million capital that will finance the development of the project, including further public and stakeholder outreach and technical studies as required to support the project. The Board is confident that the Company Business Model is appropriate to achieve the expected returns on investment. However, all private sector operations are subject to risk, but it is the intention of the Board to minimize risk, by completing the required public outreach and technical studies needed to develop the Business Plan to Investment Grade status. To apply for shares, you will need to apply to an online application form accessible via the Company’s website or the application form attached to the prospectus. If you have any questions about how to apply for shares, please call us at the contact information below. We look forward to your participation in this most exciting project should you decide to become a partner and shareholder pursuant to the offer. Sincerely, Contact Information: Brad Perkins, CEO Brad Perkins, CEO 503-317-6455 Cascadia High Speed Rail, LLC [email protected] CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS 1 SECTION 1: BACKGROUND The Cascadia High Speed Rail (CHSR) Corridor has Heading south from Seattle WA the corridor includes been recognized as a potential high speed rail SEA-TAC International Airport (the most important corridor since 1992 when it was identified by international airport in the Northwest), Tacoma (the USDOT FRA as one of the original five best high second city of Washington state), Olympia (the 1 speed rail corridors for development. This decision capital of Washington state), Centralia, Kelso, was driven by the fact that the corridor from Seattle, Vancouver WA (a growing suburb of Portland), WA to Eugene, OR is one of the densest corridors in Portland International Airport (the first passenger and the US and as such, could sustain a high speed rail freight airport of Oregon), downtown Portland at the service. This was also recognized by the widely Rose Quarter (a major hub of the Metro region 2 acclaimed America 2050 study which noted not only transportation system), Salem, Albany and Eugene. was the population dense, but it was hemmed in between the parallel Coastal and Cascade mountain ranges, which forces development into the form of a linear corridor on a relatively flat landscape. The major cities of the corridor are too close to each HSR Train other to be effectively served by air service, which Time financially needs a minimum range of over 400 miles 1 hour between due to high energy costs associated with landing and Major taking off. However, they are at an ideal distance for Cities fast passenger rail service. Early experiments with passenger rail provided tangible evidence that this was the case, with ridership responding favorably even to slow Amtrak service, while with every rail improvement offered such as introduction of Talgo trains, the result was considerably improved ridership and revenue each 1 hour time. As a result, the corridor from Seattle to Eugene offers great potential for high speed rail. A system extension north to Vancouver BC also has great potential, but due to the more difficult geographic terrain north of Seattle as well as the need for an international border crossing, it may require a 50 minutes different financing structure than that of the main spine from Seattle to Eugene. The impact of this extension would be to include Everett and Bellingham in the corridor along with Vancouver BC and possibly even the Vancouver Airport, which is connected to downtown by the SkyTrain system. 1 See: https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0140 2 See: http://www.america2050.org/ CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS 2 The corridor is connected by Interstate 5 (I-5), but this highway is chronically congested from ever- increasing volumes of traffic. Everett, WA has some of the worst traffic congestion in the United States3 and Portland, OR is not far behind at number 12. While government has considered directly funding highway improvements and/or using tolls to shift demand, major capacity expansions of urban freeways have been found impractical, due both to the significant costs and severe environmental impacts that they would have on built-up areas of the cities. CHSR System will alleviate highway congestion 3 See https://www.kgw.com/article/traffic/portland-traffic- congestion-among-worst-in-us-inrix-reports/283-515262476 and https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/its- worse-than-you-think-everett-leads-the-nation-in-traffic- congestion-report-says/ CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS 3 Likewise, the airports of the region are also facing significant capacity constraints. Although SEA-TAC has up to now been able to effectively serve the region, SEA-TAC is completely hemmed in by development, and has no ability to add runways or expand its ground terminal capacity. SEA-TAC Airport The Exhibit below shows volume of inbound air freight (in millions of pounds, on the left axis) compared to the number of annual passengers (both arriving and departing, in millions, on the right axis.) Freight and Passenger Traffic Comparison at three PNW Airports CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS 4 Typically, air cargo carriers are the first to leave congested passenger hub airports, and the Exhibit above shows that this is already happening at SEA-TAC. United Parcel Service (UPS) has its hub at nearby Boeing Field (BFI), and Portland Airport (PDX) has also attained a significant position in air freight. The combined total of arriving freight at Portland and Boeing Field is 2,064 million pounds per year as compared to 1,878 million pounds at SEA-TAC. As a result, SEA-TAC has less than a 50% share of the regional air freight market4. As passenger volumes continue to grow at SEA-TAC, cargo displacement is likely to accelerate. SEA-TAC will always maintain a strong position in belly freight on passenger flights, but it is likely that most of the dedicated air cargo flights will shift to either BFI or PDX over the next 10-20 years. SEA-TAC Airport Portland Airport 4 In 2017 the population of Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area was 3,867,046, whereas, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area had a population of 2,453,168. On this basis, Seattle SMSA has 61% of the combined population while Portland has 39%. The two Seattle Airports SEA-TAC+BFI together have 67.8% of the combined air freight but 83.2% of the passenger markets. Portland has 32.2% of the air freight but only 16.8% of the passengers. As a result, it can be seen that air freight is splitting between PDX and SEA-TAC roughly proportional to the relative population share of the two regions. However, SEA has a disproportionate share of passengers, reflecting its role as a regional passenger hub. CHSR BUSINESS PROSPECTUS 5 To make the airport capacity problems even worse, By comparison, PDX airport has plenty of land and Seattle lacks an effective reliever airport strategy: even has a plan for developing a third runway. As a result it is clear that PDX does have the ability to Southwest Airlines wanted to avoid landing become an effective reliever for SEA-TAC. The first fees at SEA-TAC, which are among the priority for PDX must be to secure through zoning highest in the nation.
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