CONIDIVBALTH SBCRBTARI AT
Connonwealth Expert Group oa Cliaatie Change and Sea-Level Rlee fhe I^plicatione of Sea Lev«l HBO f or Island and Low-lying Countries
Janes Lewis Datun 1nternati onal 101 High Street Harshfield Viltshire -- ' ; SI14 8LT " - -1""J-- Telapbone 0225 _
Karch 1988 COKTENTS
Page
1 Introduction and Summary 1
2 Island variety 5
3 The sea and change to land and islands 9
4 Tropical cyclones and sea-surge 15
5 Island and coastline contexts 27
6 The effects of sea-level-rise 30
7 Vulnerability management 36
benefits and risks 36
- protective features 42
traditional knowledge 42
- project identification 43
construction management 43
- monitoring and survey 44
- migration and emigration 45
co-ordination 46
8 Preparedness measures 47
warnings 47
- physical structures 47
9 Regional initiatives for national strategies 49
- economic and financial implications 50
organisational and institutional arrangements 51
10 Relevance to other countries 52
Eeferences 53 F
Tables Page
Table 1 Commonwealth Member Island Countries, Associated Island States and Dependancies Table 2 Tropical cyclones in Conmonwealth Countries; 1977-1988 (Karen) 22 Table 3 The effects of sea level rise 34 Table 4 Adaptations for hazards associated with sea level rise, 40
Figures
Figure 1 Distribution and location of islands at last glacial maxinum (18, 000 years BP) and today. Islands shown at present from north to south; Kiribati; Tuvalu; Rotuma; Vallis; Futuna; and Fiji 11 Figure 2 Changes in size, shape and distribution of islands in south-central Lau during the last 18,000 years 12 Figure 3 Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu 14 Figure 4 Deltaic areas of India and Bangladesh 15 Figure 5 The breeding grounds of tropical cyclones 17 Figure 6 Track of the 1970 tropical cyclone, Bangladesh 19 Figure 7 Track of tropical cyclone (hurricane) "Bully" 1987 20
Figure 3 Track of tropical cyclone "Isaac" showing local times and barograph 24 Figure 9 'Uiha Island, Tonga, showing very approximate contour of 1.5 metres sea level rise (shaded area would then be below mean sea level). 32 Figure 10 The Koki Settlement in Port Moresby 38 1 Introduction a^ri! fitU!HHT~y
Environmental perception and management appropriately recognise the impact that the activities and affairs of man have upon natural systems and processes. Environmental protection and conservation are now widely established to which ideally belongs hazard reduction, as an achieved harmony of activities with environments of a hazardous kind.
Sea level rise might seem to reverse this perception of environment; man's impact being outclassed by environment's own potential impact upon hin. This however, has always been the case. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, fires and floods, as well as tropical cyclones, have frequently made manifest their often catastrophic forces - against which it has seemed, man Is powerless. In this context, hazards associated with sea level rise are in continuation of a status quo, not the commencement of a new regime. This is more particularly the case if current concern with regard to see level rise is considered appropriately in its longer-term context. Sea levels have fluctuated in the past as the result of both long-term and short-term phenomena; in the future they will surely continue to do so. The shortest time spans suggested for rise enough to bring severe inundation are sufficiently long to allow appropriate adjustment.
Significantly, in most of the island countries where and upon whose behalf concern is greatest for the potential impact of sea level rise, there is considerable experience of adjustment to hazards; not only to the high winds, heavy rainfall and sea-surge associated with tropical cyclones, but also to volcanoes, earthquakes, fires, floods, and of severe reductions in rainfall. It is as part of these national and local contexts of hazard experience, that sea level rise should be considered. Knowledge and experience of environmental hazards generally, and of tropical cyclones in particular, will be the primary resource for addressing sea level rise and the problems and implications it brings.
To a large extent therefore, sea level rise can be regarded certainly as hazardous, but no more hazardous in most already hazardous situations as anything else. Exceptions to this general view are those island countries where all islands are low-reef or atolls (eg Kiribati and
Tuvalu) and/or those Commonwealth island countries where there has been minimal or extremely intermittent hazard experience.
In most countries however, hazards are endemic and largely unchanging in their occurrence frequencies. What has changed is man's perception of himself in their context. First, by a growing misapprehension that man is more able to resist and to protect himself against hazards whilst knowingly or not, increasing his exposure. Second, this misapprehension, induced by large scale technology, is accompanied by an erosion of smaller scale and traditional adjustments that had created a greater harmony between man and hazards: and Third by an increasing erosion of understanding of environment and of man as one of its components.
Pollution and ecological destruction may not be recognised as crucial until, in disaster, what has been destroyed would have been a protection or a survival resource,
Rising sea levels potentially affect directly all countries except the landlocked; all coastlines and coastline development will be affected.
In most larger continental or sub-continental countries, the coastal area affected will be a snail proportion of the total national land area and larger proportions of land and national resources will be unaffected. In those countries and parts of countries, which are extensively flat, areas affected by rising sea levels are likely to be a larger proportion of the national whole - with correspondingly less land remaining unaffected.
Deltaic plains and their islands are especially vulnerable, such as those on the east and north-east coasts of India and in particular, the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Keghna delta of Bangladesh. The regular experience in the
Bay of Bengal of tropical cyclones and their associated sea-surges make low lying areas particularly prone to rising sea levels - the base upon which tropical cyclones are formed and upon which they develop their catastrophic damage potential, unimpeded as they sweep inland.
In island countries surrounded by their oceans, the proportion is greater of coastal areas directly affected by rising sea levels. Hot only is it the amount of land affected in small island countries, but the proportion of land in each island affected which is so much greater and which leaves proportionately so much less land and resources unaffected. Though the proportional impact of sea-level rise is generally the greater in island countries, the topography of each island will determine the rate and extent of its effects. Coastlines of some islands may include the island entirety and proportional impact of sea level rise will be greatest of all on low-reef and atoll islands.
Rising sea levels bring the need for increased urgency for understanding of hazards and in implementing measures and adjustments on their behalf, lew and expanded initiatives are required to facilitate the sharing and exchange of knowledge and experience between island countries and between island and continental countries of the Commonwealth. This, and other
Reports for the Commonwealth Expert Group, should be made the basis of training and education programmes, out of which implementation projects for specific measures can be identified and implemented where these are most needed. Regional and inter-regional initiatives are an appropriate
Commonwealth medium for this process.
Holistic survival strategies are required as integral components of coastal zone human ecology and its management, to take account of vulnerability reduction, preservation and conservation of natural protective features and traditional knowledge, and the identification, transference and implementation of measures for vulnerability reduction and preparedness, 2 Island Variety
Twenty-six Commonwealth Member States are island countries (UHCTAD
1979) and twenty-one of these are small island developing countries
(Commonwealth Secretariat: 1985), amongst a total Commonwealth
Membership of 48. An additional 21 island countries are included amongst Special Members, self governing states in association with
Member Countries, and dependant territories of Member Countries.
Table 1 shows the extraordinary range and variety of areas, populations and population densities of Commonwealth countries.
The island country of Papua Few Guinea has a land area almost twice that of Great Britain and of half as much again as New Zealand
(comprising two principal islands). These two countries are included as Commonwealth Member Island Countries (Table 1). The population density of Great Britain is exceeded by thirteen other Commonwealth island countries (eg Barbados; The Maldives; St Vincent; Sri Lanka;
Tuvalu). Some archipelagic island countries, such as The Cook
Islands, have a total land area less than some of the smallest single- island countries (eg 5iue). Archipelagic countries may contain several islands, such as Western Samoa, hundreds of islands as in
Tonga, or thousands of islands as in The Maldives. Some of these islands may not be permanently inhabited and amongst those which are, population density is widely variable. Some islands are mountainous
(Vanuatu) and some are atolls (Tuvalu); other countries are a significant mixture of Island types (Cook Islands; Tonga). Some may include active volcanoes, as the inhabited islands of Savo in the
Solomon Islands, and Niua Fo'ou and Kao in Tonga. TABLE 1 Commonwealth Member Island Area Popula- Popula- Projected Urban Countries, Associated sq km tion tion/ Popula- Population Island States and (000 sq km tion (I of 1982) Dependancies 1982) (1982) (000 2000) Source Commonwealth Secretariat 1985
Antigua and Barbuda 441 77 175 100 30.8
Bahamas 13,935 218 16 300 54.4
Barbados 431 258 599 300 40.6
Britain 244,046 56,280 231 57,000 91.0
Brunei Darussalam 5,765 250 43 na na
Cypru s 9,251 645 70 700 47.6
Dominica 751 80 107 100 27.0
Grenada 344 113 328 200 63.0
Jamaica 10,991 2,217 202 3,000 48.0
Kiribati 886 60 68 na 30.0
Maldives 298 163 547 300 20.7
Malta 316 360 1,139 400 84.2
Mauritius 1,865 985 528 1,300 54.0
Sauru 21 8 381 na 100.0
New Zealand 268,676 3, 160 12 4,000 85.0
Papua New Guinea 461,691 3, 128 7 5,000 17.0
St Christopher-Ievis 269 53 197 100 42.8
St Lucia 616 124 201 200 40.0
St Vincent and Grenadines 388 112 260 100 na
Seychelles 280 64 229 100 37.0
Singapore 581 2,471 4,253 3,000 100.0
Solomon Islands 28,446 245 9 400 23.2
(continued) Sri Lanka 65,610 15, 189 232 21,000 24.0
Tonga 699 100 143 na 26.0
Trinidad and Tobago 5,128 1, 128 220 2,000 22.0
Tuvalu 28 8 289 na 30.0
Vanuatu 11,880 123 10 200 32.2
Western Samoa 2,842 159 56 200 24.0
Angu i1a 91 7 71
Bermuda 53 55 1,038
British Virgin Islands 153 13 82
Cayman Islands 259 18 71
Falkland Islands 12, 173 2 0.16
Gibraltar 6 31 5,344
Hong Kong 1, 067 5,233 4,904
Kontserrat 102 12 114
Pitcairn 5 0.06 12
St Helena 122 6 45
Turks and Caicos Islands 500 8 16
Cook Islands 234 17 74 ffiue 259 3 12
Tokelau Islands 12 2 131
Forfolk Island 35 2 62
Heard Island
McDonald Island
Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Christmas Island (Indian Ocean) 135 22 There are generally four types of island according to composition and origin (McLean: 1980a). Continental islands are fragmented continental rocks that have separated from major continental land masses. Volcanic islands are the tips of mountains built up from the sea floor by volcanic action. Low coral islands or atolls are coral reefs whose growth has kept them at the surface after the volcanoes upon which they are founded sank beneath the sea. Elevated coral islands are atolls or other coral reef structures that have been lifted above the ocean surface, leaving a limestone platform. It is possible also to find intermediates between and combinations of these different island types, such as a volcano surrounded by an atoll-like lagoon and barrier reef, or an elevated reef attached to a continental or volcanic island.
Only a very few Commonwealth island countries are single or even two- island formations. The majority are multi-island entities; in some, component islands are dispersed over vast distances, (eg Cook Island;
Tonga); whereas in others, islands are closer together (eg Seychelles;
Western Samoa). Sone islands of island states may be close to continental land masses (The Maldives); the capitals of others may be thousands of miles from their nearest continental neighbour's capital
(eg Vestern Samoa). Though capitals of island countries may be separated by vast distances, in several cases the outlying islands of two states may be comparatively close. (Commonwealth Secretariat:
1984). The sea and c to land and Islands
The manifestation of tectonic, volcanic, and other geomorphic processes which have created islands, continue to change island structure and formation - which may bring disaster for island inhabitants. Earthquakes have raised islands, tilted and lowered islands, caused lagoons to drain and dry (Angenheister: 1921) and whole islands to recurrently disappear and reappear. ' ' •' <2) (Dahl:
1984). The location of islands has shifted horizontally over tens of kilometres (McLean: 1980a> and island size has increased due to the compounding of successive deposits of coral reef rubble by storm and sea. (Government of Tuvalu: 1976). Volcanoes have reshaped islands, tropical cyclones have eroded islands and shifted massive sections of island reef (Baines and McLean: 1976). In such violent contexts, natural forces have moulded islanders as well as islands and their relationships have created a complexity of experience, adjustment and adaptation (see Sections 7 and 8).
Islands have not been static, neither has the sea which is their massive context. Sea levels have risen and fallen with the ice ages, drowning islands and exposing them again, and all the while eroding and moulding them.
In the same way as the economies of most small island countries are dependant to a large extent upon external economic and political forces (Commonwealth Secretariat: 1984), so too is island habitat dependant upon external physical forces. Both these forces are characterised by fluctuations and change. (McLean: 1980a). Far from being static backdrops for human activities, island environments are themselves continuously changing; and not only in the scale of geological time but also on scales measured in years and decades.
Hunan habitat on islands is conditioned by environmental variability, rather than assumptions of long-term equability. Land itself, the basis of habitat, has thus been created and/or destroyed in quite recent times, In this variable spectrum, sea level rise is not the only factor nor are its recent or projected manifestations unique.
Over twelve thousand years prior to 6000 BP (before present), global sea levels rose at an average of one metre every 100 years as a result of melting ice caps in the northern hemisphere. (McLean: 1980a). At the peak of maximum glaciation (18,000 years ago) the area of land was much more extensive than today. Figure 1 sketches the present distribution and extent of islands compared with that of 18,000 years ago for one area of the Pacific Ocean. It shows that not only were some present-day Islands united to form larger land masses (eg the
Tasawas and Viti Levu would have been a single island), but there 11
would have been very nany more islands. At that tine there would have
been at least 50 islands of varying sizes where there are now only the
four isolated groups of Hiulakita, Rotuma, Futuna and Vallis.
Collectively these fifty or so islands would have been a series of
"stepping stones" linking Tuvalu to Fiji in the south and Samoa in the east. Many of these islands would have been extant up to 10,000 years ago and only became extinct in the following two or three thousand years.
18.OOO YEARS B* PRESENT
10 S
•;
20 S 175 "C 174 W 173"€ MO* 17VW
Figure 1 Distribution and location of Islands at last glacial aaxiBUB (18,000 years BP> and today. Islands shown at present from north to south: Kiribati; Tuvalu; Rotuaa; Vallis; Futuna; and Fiji, gource McLean: 1980 12
In addition to the total loss of many islands, others were greatly
reduced in size. Figure 2 conpares the land areas in south central
Lau 18,000 years ago, 10,000 years ago and at present. Land areas
have decreased by between forty and five per cent depending upon their
topography. On-site effects of sea-level-rise are themselves highly
variable according to islands' initial slopes and norphology.
18.000 YEARS B.P. j 10,000 YEARS B.P. PRESENT I
0(M*t(
%Moc«
X •»
0 JO k
Figure 2 Changes in size, shape and distribution of islands In south-central Lau during the Last 18,000 years. Source McLean: 1980
On some Islands, the 100 metre rise in sea level and its subsequent
levelling off a few thousand years ago, resulted in a change of Island
type. The islands which form Kiribati and Tuvalu would formerly have
been steeply cliffed and essentially beachless - as are present day
lauru and Ocean Island. low, the dry land area of these islands is a
totally different loose sand that rises to less than five metres above
mean sea level. Elsewhere, flooding of the original surface greatly 13
reduced the amount of dry land. The atolls of Funafuti and Nukulaelae
(see Figure 3) would initially have covered areas of about 270 and 45 square kilometres respectively, whereas now the total area of dry land in both cases is less than three square kilometres. These islands' length of shoreline would have been about 75 kilometres, now it is 54 kilometres. Tiny Uiulakita now covers an area of only 40 hectares but would have been about 250 square kilometres at glacial maximum times of 18,000 years ago. Islands have assumed their present basic sizes and shapes only comparatively recently in geomorphic time (McLean:
1980a).
As if in time-lapse mirror imagery of marine geomorphology in the
Pacific Ocean, in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Heghna deltaic islands and plains of Bangladesh, land formation and erosion is a pronounced and rapid process. New islands (.chars) can be formed overnight while as a part of the same process, some coastlines are receding at rates estimated as up to 240 metres a year (Islam: 1970; see Figure 6: p 19 ). T« Afualiku
,'Tapuka
f> Fualopi ,,
Fuafetu/
,**& O «••* V?^F»tatjf"o (pP* -*;^ Va«afua^»\ ^f-^Funangongo
^'J ^ > Funamanu "v*1 .V; Fuagea, / ^F...f.«-
\ •> c ) t > Tafale r*'} jFMataika \ jt-'lui Motu
\ * ff 1 1:160000 f 7 V' < 1 ^XFunafala kiiom*ir«> W Tutanga /•> U'> 202488 '/ ^jtf' 101234 _^-^-* * dR' nautical milts Av-u\L.* t»t «. — .• Motuloa
Figure 3 Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu 15
4 Tropical cyfi d sea— sur
Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries of the world, has suffered more than 80 natural disasters since the turn of the century.
Over one-half of these have been caused by tropical cyclones and since
1970, an estimated 431,000 people have lost their lives in tropical cyclones and floods (Brittont 1985a). Table 2 (pages 22/23) shows the incidence of tropical cyclones in Bangladesh over the past ten years.
Tropical cyclones typically form over the southern Bay of Bengal
(Figure 5, p 17) and move north-westwards to the Indian coast, or north-eastwards to Bangladesh (Figure 4).
o soo i ooo mil M
Figure 4 Deltaic areas of India and Bangladesh 16
Deltaic and littoral terrain of Bangladesh is very low, not more than
three metres above mean sea level, is interlaced with rivers and tidal
channels, and is extremely susceptible to tidal variations. The sea-
surges which accompany most tropical cyclones are far more devastating
in this terrain than are the high winds and heavy rain which are also
components of tropical cyclones. Commonly with four metres between
low and high tides, a storm of only moderate intensity crossing the
coast at high tide can be more dangerous than a severe tropical
cyclone at low tide.
Sea-surge waves may be between three and six metres and with no
natural obstruction can be catastrophic in their destructive power.
The very high surge with the tropical cyclone of 1970, coincided with
the moon tide and 250,000 people were killed (Choudhury: 1986), crops
worth US$63 million were destroyed and 280,000 cattle were swept away.
Eight-five per cent of families in the affected area lost their homes and 600,000 people were left homeless, Almost a million people were dependant for several months on relief food supplies for survival
(Burton et al: 1978).
Each year in the delta, flooding occurs independently of tropical cyclones, due to channel restrictions, drainage congestion, and rainfall run-off. Flooding affects wider areas than those to the south which are prone to tropical cyclones. In 1987, in nany areas flooding was more severe than the annual expectancy - particularly in the normally flood-free north-west of the country. Water management projects were flooded "from behind". Houses with earth walls 17
collapsed in their thousands, many people lost homes and lands washed
away as swollen rivers spread and took to new strean beds (Oakley:
1987).
Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) originate in
the oceans where sea surface temperatures reach 26 degrees Centigrade
(76 degrees Farenheit) to supply an abundance of water vapour and
where small areas of low atmospheric pressure may have formed (see
Figure 5). The warm sea provides the overlying atmosphere with a
continuous supply of energy and moisture, first to generate a tropical
cyclone and then to maintain its powerfully destructive potential
(Britton: 1985b) .
30* 60' »0* 120* 160* 180' 160* 120* »0* 60' 30'
30' —
—». Tropical cyclone traelu _ _ _ Boundary of zonei of tropical cyclon* formation
Figure 5 The breeding grounds of tropical cyclones. Source. PCDPPP: 1987 18
Tropical cyclones follow fairly well-defined tracks, moving at an average speed of 15-25 kilometres per hour and characteristically moving westwards, then polewards, and finally turning eastwards. They are often hundreds of kilometres in diameter and 15-20 kilometres in depth,
Each tropical cyclone has its own characteristics but those which generally contribute to destructive powers are: WINDS in excess of 63 kilometres an hour circulating round a relatively calm "eye* in a clockwise (southern hemisphere) or anti-clockwise (northern henisphere) direction and a SURGE of the sea; low atmospheric pressures causes the sea surface to bulge. The strong cyclonic winds blow the surface waters ahead of the storm so powerfully that a shelving sea floor and an opposing coastline cause the sea to rise upwards and flood inland. Where this occurs at or near high tide, sea-height and power will be at its most damaging, violent winds coinciding with sea-waves carried inland on top of the sea-surge.
Sone surges may travel the length of a section of coast according to the track of the tropical cyclone (see Figure 6). The height of surges above high tide level, though often little more than a metre or so, may be a more serious 3-4 metres, while 7-8 metres may be reached
In extreme cases (Oliver: 1985).
Small islands can easily be missed by tropical cyclones which proceed to inundate continental shorelines; their incidence may be no higher in island countries, though some frequencies are impressive (UHCTAD:
1983: see Table 2 (pages 22/23) for tropical cyclones recorded for
Commonwealth Countries betweeen 1977 and 1988: March). 19
Figure 6 Track of the 1970 tropical cyclone: Bangladesh. Source Burton et al: 1978
Only in recent years has satellite imagery made it possible for the world to watch whilst a vast tropical cyclone wholly subsunes one small island country after another (eg Hurricane "Allen": 1980): but in a world predisposed towards magnitude, snail countries and small populations have no chance of creating disasters to conpete in magnitude with those in continental countries. It is the often overwhelming proportional Impact of disasters in small countries that is a reason for special concern. 20
Figure 7 Track of tropical cyclone (hurricane) "B«lly" 1987. Source. PCDPPP: 1987
Tropical cyclones have been the cause of disasters nost responsible for high proportional losses amongst island countries. Hurricane
•Bebe" in 1972 seriously affected Tuvalu, Tonga and Fiue, and 95% of housing on Funafuti was destroyed (Gilbert Is: 1972). Hurricane
•David" in 1979 destroyed 80% of Dominica's housing stock. Hurricane
•Allen" in 1980 caused very severe damage to Barbados, St Vincent, St
Lucia, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands (Lewis: 1980). Over £0% of housing in Tonga was destroyed by Hurricane "Isaac" in March 1982; 21
together with 90% of coconuts, breadfruit and bananas, and half of the crops of yams and cassava (Lewis: 1982). Both cyclones "Eric" and
•Nigel" passed over Fiji as well as Vanuatu in 1985 for example (see
Table 2: pages 22/23), Hurricane "Emily" in 1987 seriously affected
Barbados, St Vincent, St Lucia and the Turks and Caicos Islands, lightly touched islands of the Bahamas and intensified before striking
Bermuda (PCDPPP: 1987; see Figure 7).
Most of these countries can expect to be in the path of a tropical cyclone at least two or three times in a decade and often more frequently (see Table 2), but Bermuda is more often missed by
Caribbean hurricanes recurring north-eastwards. In a rare event for the Cook Islands, the capital Avarua was destroyed by tropical cyclone in January 1987. There have been only 22 cyclones in the Cook Islands since 1841 (Lewis: 1987) whereas in Tonga there have been 42.
Hurricane "Isaac" in March 1982 wrought catastrophic damage to most of
Tonga (see Figure 8: p 24). Sustained wind speeds were 150 km/hour, gusting to 200 km/hour. Coconut trees were blown over or stripped of their foliage, broken and severely damaged; 22'/, of housing stock was destroyed, the Ha'apai islands being worst hit. On Tongatapu the hurricane coincided with high tide, causing sea-flooding up to 300 metres Inland of the northern shore. Boats and artisanal fishing gear were lost. There were six deaths and total damage was assessed at
US$20 million of which 407. was to buildings (Lewis: 1983a). Damage to buildings amounted to around US$8 million, 60% of which was to 22
TABLE 2
Tropical cyclones in h. Countries March 1977-1988 (March) 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
CARIBBEAN Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Dominica Grenada Jamaica St Kitts Nevis St Lucia 0 0 St Vincent and the Grenadines 0 0 0 Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Is (Dependancy) Bermuda (Depend)
SOUTH PACIFIC Kiribati Nauru Papua Hew Guinea Solomon Islands 0 Tonga 0 0 0 Tuvalu Vanuatu 00 0 0 Vestern Samoa Cook Islands
INDIAN OCEAN Maldives Tidal vave Mauritius Seychelles 23
MEDITERRANEAN Cyprus Kalta
ASIA Brunei Darussalam Bangladesh 00 00
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 Harch
Sources: Commonwealth Fact Book 1985 Crntnnnnwealth. Currents Caribbean Disaster Sews UHDRQ flews AODBQ Newsletter
dwellings. In the Ha'apai island group, all 20 houses on Matuku island
(population 150) were destroyed; 87% on 'O'ua and 74% on Mo1 unga'one, all
one-village islands. In half of the villages of the Ha'apai group the
proportion of destroyed dwellings was over 70%. The sea swept over 'Uiha
island (see Figure 9; p 32) and through 'Uiha village carrying with it houses, animals, chickens, trees and debris and 'Uiha island changed its shape. The Ha'apai islands lost 72% of Its housing stock (.nearly three-
quarters); Vava'u lost 29% and Tongatapu 12.5%. A total of 3,044 houses were destroyed - 22% of the national total.
The flooding caused by sea-surge at Nuku'alofa caused most severe damage in the area of Sopu, occupied mostly by "spontaneous" settlers from Ha'apai.
Kuch of the area is at or below sea-level (Lewis: 1983a). 24
Tvttdojr I MWntsrfo/Thuridaj / 3393 I 33U / 43 It I
ft^-7 3-3
976 4mt>* of H5f>m 331992
TONGATAPU GROUP
Euo I*
Figure B Track of tropical cyclone "Isaac" showing local times and barograph. Source Oliver and Sear don: 1082 25
Sea waves caused by seismic energy (tsunanls) are also an oceanic hazard, especially in the Pacific Ocean, Tsunamis may be generated on
Pacific peripheral coasts or from within the region. Tsunamis have affected Pacific island countries from their origins in Chile,
Alaska, Japan and Kamchatka. Other tsunamis generated from within
Pacific islands have been recorded in Tonga and the Kerzoadecs (McLean:
1980a), Papua Hew Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Western Samoa
(Lewis; 1976). Though potentially very destructive on continental coastlines, islands are less susceptible to tsunami waves.
Although tropical cyclones (hurricanes), their accompanying sea- surges, and tsunamis are most obviously the hazards to be exacerbated by sea level rise, it is academic to separate these from the experience of all hazards in island countries. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and periods of drought will continue to occur in spite of, if not because of, sea level rise and the effects of these must continue to be taken into account as an integral part of vulnerability reduction and survival strategy (See Section 7). The inter- relationships of one disaster upon vulnerability to the next of the same or different kind are often of crucial consequence (Lewis;
1984a). Many island countries are prone to a variety of hazards (eg
Tonblin: 1981 for earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes in the
Caribbean). Tonga has earthquakes, floods and droughts, as well as frequent and severe hurricanes and five active volcanoes - two of which are inhabited islands. From Vestern Samoa with volcano, earthquake and hurricane there is an account of two of the latter occurring at the same time! Sea-level rise will not only be directly reflected in the consequences of the sea related hazards of tropical 26
cyclone and tsunami but the effects of all hazards to be experienced in any island will be compounded (See Section 7).
Sea level change itself is unlikely to be the cause of increase in the incidence of tropical cyclones or of their land fall. Incidence will continue independantly and variably and there are suggestions that the severity of tropical cyclones is likely to increase; but tropical cyclone incidence often appears as cyclical grouping over time.
Vhat is certain is that when tropical cyclones that have formed, strike land on a temporary or permanently raised sea level, consequences and their extent upon islands, coastlines and low-lying areas will be the greater (see Section 6). 27
5 Island and coastline contexts
Amongst oceanic islands where migration is traditional and endemic, movement of people within and between islands has intensified in volume, increased in distance, and become more complex in pattern and purpose over the past century (Connell: 1984). With a few exceptions populations in the South Pacific island states, for example, are now as large as they have ever been and growth rates remain high at around
2.5% per year. On the other hand, as urban centres on the Pacific periphery accrue larger and larger ex-island populations, within the
Pacific, some small islands and atolls have been completely depopulated (although Pitcairn Island has retained population far beyond the time when depopulation seemed imminent). In all multi- island States the larger islands are gaining population relative to the smaller ones (eg the Cook Islands). Employment opportunities, education and health services are concentrated in the urban centres to which rural to urban migration is inevitable. Decreased rural and out-island population, production and opportunity will exacerbate this process which results in increased urban populations (see Table 1: pages 6/7).
The depopulation of small islands is paralleled in larger islands by a movement from the mountains to coasts. The attraction is of jobs and services centred on cash crops and transportation. The resulting pressure on coastal land and other resources is often very great; urban growth Is thus exacerbated, but it is not only in urban 28
areas that these pressures are felt - In Vest New Britain in Papua
lew Guinea and Makira in the Solomon Islands pressure on available
land has become intense.
A result has been a narked reduction in food crop production due to
cash cropping and less agricultural land per capita. Cash cropping
encourages mono-cropping, diversity decreases, dependancy on external
supplies increases and it becomes more difficult to be self-reliant -
especially in times of disaster. In an increasing conflict of
interest between short-term economic efficiency and diversification
for long-term ecological survival, specialism is gaining ground at
increasing long-term cost.
Movement to the coasts and larger islands in a process of
urbanisation (see Figure 10; p38) brings pollution. In extreme cases
such as Tarawa Lagoon in Kiribati, the disposal of sewage In areas
where shellfish are an important food resource has precipitated severe
outbreaks of cholera. The depletion of bush, timber and use of
mangroves for fuel has brought about increased coastal erosion.
Removal of sand and reef deposits for construction purposes, as
widespread in the Caribbean as it is in the Pacific, (Hulm: 1983;
Rodriguez: 1981) has exacerbated this process being the "single most
destructive coastal activity, producing severe and irreparable beach erosion in many places". Even small scale quarrying operations for stone, aggregate and sand cause serious problems of landslides as well as coastal erosion (GajraJ: 1981). 29
Mangroves are an essential feature of natural protection against the
sea and sea-surge, as well as the natural habitat of fish and
shrimps - a food resource. Destruction of mangroves by pollution or
for short term benefits leads to severe long-term disadvantage and
probable catastrophe.
Tourism has been actively developed as a significant source of income
by many island countries possessing the obvious basic attractions of
coastline scenery and beaches. Virtually all tourism development
occurs in coastal zones where the beaches are the principal
attraction. The greater part of the resident population has also
settled or migrated to the coastline (above) and will continue to do
so attracted by the Job opportunities that tourism creates (Beekhuis:
1981).
As with all natural hazards, situations became critical where populations and their activities are concentrated in high risk areas.
Disasters caused by tropical cyclones and sea-surges are brought about by their association with these heavily populated and/or economically active coastal and lowland areas. Coastal regions invariably attract development in areas of highest risk, but when at the same time, that development subscribes to pollution and destruction of natural protective features, leads to overcrowding, insanitary and substandard accommodation, and increased dependancy on external food supplies, then not only is development and occupation in the areas of highest risk, it is also itself in a condition of high susceptibility to the events that risk represents. Vulnerability is thus compounded. 30
P" 6 P" Unlike the coasts of continental countries, island shorelines extend P" entirely around islands and face in all directions through 360 degrees. They can therefore be impacted by wind, waves, currents and P" storms from all points of the compass but rarely is this process P" uniform around an island (McLean: 1980b). Island shape and length of coastline, and the ratios between them vary. Coastline length is not
solely a function of island size. The nature, form and dimensions of
the coastline zone, its length, width and profile are some of the most
changeable areas known. Of all the pressures which influence this
change, most fundamental is change in the level of the sea itself.
There is evidence to suggest that sea level is continuing to rise;
extensive erosion to coastlines is likely to be a more pervasive and
permanent phenomenon and storm activity a heightening of on-going
trends.
Tide gauge records in the Pacific suggested a rise of 1.5 millimetres
per year between 1940 and 1975, or 11 centimetres during the last 70
years. It has been argued that should world temperature increases
continue, most low-reef islands and atolls would disappear beneath a
rising sea - but not for 1,000 - 2,000 years (Cloud: 1953 in McLean:
1980b). The process will not be regular or even; superimposed on the
overall trend will be tidal rhythms and shorter-term fluctuations in
sea-level due to wind, atmospheric pressure, ocean currents, salinity
and water temperature. Other sources suggest a more dramatic rise of
between half-a-metre and 1,5 metres before the year 2050. Even "only" 31
a rise of half a metre in the next 62 years will be the cause of severe increases in hazardous consequences. Small oceanic islands, particularly the low-reef islands and atolls, are especially vulner- able to even slight shifts in the level of the sea.
The two most obvious consequences of sea-level-rise (see Table 3: p 34> are first, a reduction in island size and second, a reduction in shoreline length. Both consequences are highly variable between islands according to the angle of the land slope and its configuration over which the sea transgresses (see Figure 9 which shows an approxi- mate 1.5 metre contour of sea level rise on 'Uiha Island of the Tonga group).
Another consequence is progressive rise in the fresh/salt water table, decreasing fresh water capacity and increasing incursions of sea-water into island ground-water lenses and reservoirs. Already deleterious effects on the quality of water in domestic wells and swanp taro pits has been recognised in southern Kiribati and in Tuvalu (McLean:
1980b).
Gradual encroachment by rising sea levels could engulf shore features through erosion and bring progressive shifts in locations of shore- lines allowing high seas and storm waves to penetrate further inland.
Storms devastate food supplies, salt-burn foligage, whip off coconut heads, and carry salt deposits onto soil and fresh water. Fishing boats and equipment, necessarily on the shorelines, are swept away and 32
destroyed. At the tine of greatest need, crucial supplies of fish are rendered inaccessible.
Figure 0 'Oiha Island, Tonga, showing very approximately contour of 1.5 aetra sea-level-rise (shaded area would then be below •Ban sea level) 33
Tropical cyclones and sea-surges (and tsunamis) on higher mean sea levels will result in greater risk for incrementally nore low lying areas and coastal nargins to more frequent and more extensive inundation - according to topography, extent and relativity of low lying areas to sea level. This is not a new phenomenon but is likely to become more extensive and therefore more damaging to highly populated and economically significant coastal zones.
Reduced land areas will result in increased concentrations of popula- tion, but as population in most countries is itself increasing, density increase will be from both population and decreased land area.
Increased population density and decreased land area will mean in many cases, less land available for food production, less area available for fresh water conservation, and consequent increases in malnutrition, pollution, environmental health problems and increased risk of disease, illness and epidemic. Those activities to whom coastal occupation is essential (tourism; fishing) will be more greatly condensed due to decreased coastlines, exacerbating these conditions and the overall vulnerability of those areas.
Migration will increase from low-reef islands and atolls threatened with extinction, or where only minor decreases in area will mean extreme disadvantagenent for increased populations. Vithin islands, movement of populations and settlements will occur fron the low coastal areas to higher ground where that exists. Vithin multi-island states, migration can be expected from low Islands to high islands as well as increased migration to urban centres for their advantages of 34
TABLE 3
o Reduced island size o Reduced shore length
o Decreased fresh water capacity o Less land available for food production
o Greater exposure to salination o Greater penetration of storms - sea surge o More extensive food shortages o Greater risk of malnutrition and environmental health problems o Movement of settlements from coastlines (if higher ground is
accessible) o In-country migration from low to high islands o In-country migration to urban centres o Emigration between countries from low to high islands o Increased emigration to continental countries 35
better services and security as perceived from increasingly exposed
and disadvantaged out-islands and rural coastal areas. Vhere low-reef
and atoll islands of one multi-island country are closest to high
islands of another island country, emigration can be expected between
these countries. Emigration to continental countries, already well
established, will increase.
Neither are these new phenomenon, migration has been traditional
amongst oceanic islands and in the distant past has been accompanied
by warfare (Rutherford: 1977).
More extensive impacts of storms and tropical cyclones upon more
concentrated populations in significantly reduced land areas, mean
that the proportional impacts of catastrophe upon islanders and island
states will be even more marked than they have been in the past
(Section 4).
Except for the possibility of the eventual ultimate permanent over- topping of some low-reef or atoll islands or low lying areas, no penultimate physical result of sea level rise will be a new experience. A principal issue for policy formulation will be: at what point will the social and economic impact of increasing sea level rise bring about such increases in migration and emigration than depopulation ensues? Islands themselves, in their inevitably modified and reduced form, will last for longer than will their viable and permanent habitation. 36
7 Vulnerability
Benefits and risks
So successful are adjustments to endemic hazards in island countries
that average life expectancy at birth is at 65, 13 years higher than
it is in some continental South-east Asian and African countries. An
exception is the Maldive Islands (at 50 years) where conditions of
environmental health are said to account for more than tropical cyclones or tidal waves (Lewis: 1982).
Had tropical cyclones and tidal waves been a more frequent experience
for the Maldlve Islands (see Table 2: pages 22/23), vulnerability to them would have been the greater because of their endemic environmental health conditions. Recent "unprecedented" tidal wave occurrence in Mali (Maldives) may be the signal of more to corneas the result of sea level rise, vulnerability to which will remain high until environmental health conditions can be improved to take account of sea encroachment. Meanwhile, tidal waves will make their contribution to further reductions in the quality of environmental health through salination and consequent scarcity of fresh water reserves, as will population density through natural increase and migration to the capital. Response to increased population density in
Mali by reclamation of lagoon areas will Inevitably place more people at greater risk as sea levels rise, by occupation of areas consequently deprived of natural reef and lagoon protection (Lewis: 1988). 37
In other island countries, the attractions of coastal lowlands for settlement purposes is obvious. Large proportions of coconut planta- tions, agricultural land and settlement are located on coastal lowlands, though the proportion of lowland area to the total may be very small. On many islands coastal lowlands are the only flat land, easy to move over, to work for agriculture, and to build on. Sand and gravel deposits are readily available as building materials and fertile sediments attractive to agriculture. Location between land and sea provides access to a complete range of resources of hillslope, valley, forest, reef, and lagoon. Some of the best land is offered by deltaic soils lying in areas of highest risk to flooding and/or sea- surge. Coastal areas are multi-purpose for good reason, but their occupation is at high risk in its context of exposure, erosion and sea level rise.
Urban areas on island countries, as in many continental countries, have developed around natural harbours - another advantage of the coastline. Urban areas in island countries now contain an average of more than 40% of populations (Commonwealth Secretariat: 1985a), in conditions which have in some areas become squatter settlements or shanty-towns (eg Figure 10).
Development for tourism exacerbates some of these conditions and processes. Sot only does tourism select locations which are themselves at risk, but vulnerability to hazards of the sea is compounded by attracting local population for employment, increasing local occupancy, exacerbating pollution in the longer term and by the 38
immediate consequences of exposing wider areas of hinterland by renoval of mangroves, sand, rock and coralthat site clearance and construction consume (Lewis: 1984b).
Th* Kohl S«ttlafn«nt In Port Moraaby la locatad In what waa oot» a mangrova twamp. Aa tha population axpanda, paopta ara aquaazad Into marginal araaa. Photo: Connall. Figure 10 Source Connell: 1984
Large numbers of people concentrated in snail areas are at risk and are vulnerable to sea level rise and its associated and direct consequences. Vulnerability is compounded by:
1 location in otherwise favourable areas;
2 high occupation and population density;
3 reduced environmental health conditions, brought about by
population density, pollution, overcrowding and water shortage. 39
Measures are required which will work towards reducing or arresting this vulnerability (Table 4). These are likely to be, for example:
1 improved services of health and education in non-urban areas and
out-islands;
2 development assistance in out-island and rural areas for improved
food production, water collection and storage, marketing,
transportation and communications;
3 inducements to developments for which a coastline location is not
essential, to separate them from those for which it is (eg fishing
and sea transport); and for their location on higher and inland
ground.
(Such & strategy would be a revival of traditional similar
separation in some coastal settlements which respond in similar
ways to the risk of attack from the sea by hostile forces).
4 development and control of development in already established
urban areas, to improve environmental health conditions by sewage
disposal, provision of potable water, and improvement to housing
conditions to reduce overcrowding.
Tropical cyclones have themselves often been the trigger in overall conditions of disadvantagement, for migration to urban areas. In post-cyclone conditions, health services are essential and thus are conversely noticeable by their absence in times of greatest need. 40
TABLE 4
Adaptations for hazards associated with sea—level—rise
o Land-use management in coastal zones. o Improved freshwater supplies. o Improved sanitation. o Improved environmental health and education services.
a) in non-urban areas and out-islands b) in established urban areas. o Development assistance for rural areas and out-islands. o Inducements and controls for developments and activities not essential to coastlines. o Assistance with self-build housing location and construction. o Field identification of vulnerability. o Assessment of development projects for vulnerability implications. o Protection and conservation of natural protective features (reefs, lagoons, mangroves, trees, dunes, etc). o Coastal Zone Management and Co-ordination programmes. o Revival and conservation of traditional knowledge. o Post-tropical cyclone project identification. o More widespread and detailed monitoring and survey of sea-levels. o Provision of amenities and assistance for migrants and emigrants. o Warnings, promulgation and information for response. o Refuge construction in low-lying areas. o Analysis for policy formulations for depopulation and/or development, o Regional initiatives (Section 9). 41
Vulnerability accretion is not however always so obvious and measures to counter vulnerability may require careful field inquiry and analysis. Established vulnerability now and that prevailing at times of earlier disasters, will require historical research to reveal the constituents of prevailing vulnerability and in order to identify counter action; how they occurred or were brought about, how one set of conditions inadvertently related to another, and how seemingly unrelated events conspired in the creation of vulnerability that ensued and which manifested itself in unexpected deaths and destruction (Lewis: 1984a),
As vulnerability accretion comes to be more understood and accepted as the root cause of many "natural" disasters, integration of that understanding into development strategy and its programmes and projects will be the more assured. The realisation of sea level rise brings with it a new impetus - an urgency - to integrate reductions in vulnerability, and this in spite of those vulnerability increases that a less concerned and more insular development may have already brought about.
If the root causes of vulnerability are not locally identified, exposure to hazards will increase at the same time as efforts are made to institute disaster preparedness measures. Costs of these measures are already rising on the one hand, and the causes of disasters they are aimed at are being perpetrated by the other. One hand is the cause of what the other hand is paying for to counter and to resist. 42
Protective Features
Vhere urbanisation or tourism have not already eroded or destroyed
natural protective features of dunes, sandbanks, reefs, mangroves and
trees, efforts have to be made to secure their preservation,
conservation and maintenance. All of these features are organic, they
are not dead or static. Conservation for their well-being and health
will more readily ensure their own spontaneous response to change to
which they are subjected. As sea levels rise, coral reefs will grow
towards the new sea surface; as storms and sea surge drive further
inland, dunes will form, reform and shift as a result of the farces
against which they can protect. The long term organic protective
potential these features provide, can otherwise be destroyed for ever
by their use as material resources far short term advantage.
Traditional knowledge
There is considerable suggestion that up to as late as the 1940's, or
1950's, island communities were self-sufficient in adverse conditions
intermittently brought about by drought or tropical cyclone (Thaman et al: 1979; Lewis: 1981). Food cropping and storage, wild foods and folk medicines; traditional construction; local trade networks and communications, and mutual assistance were the source of independance and survival through traditional knowledge. As it is, increased dependency, partly created by disaster relief, is considered by some to have brought an erosion of traditional knowledge that now would 43
have been a principal source of organic and adaptive response to
hazards associated with rising sea levels.
Measures are required to revive, conserve and to integrate traditional
knowledge into education programmes as part of comprehensive
strategies to take account of sea level rise.
Project identification
Post-tropical cyclone field identification of projects required for
the mitigation of damage to be caused by future and recurrent tropical
cyclones, is a very effective way to take full advantage of
opportunity offered by disasters. Short and long tern needs are
exposed for identification with a realism that might attract funding
agencies (Lewis: 1983a; Lewis: 1985).
Construction
Improvements in building construction to resist high wind and flood, should be accompanied by control and zoning of land use and the siting of new construction in order to achieve a greater part of new development on higher ground away from the coastlines. Increased costs of construction away from established access and on slopes will be compensated by increased safety from the sea, but construction will need to take account of landslide risk and induced erosion, especially in earthquake-prone areas. 44
Monitoring and survey
More widespread and more detailed accurate oceanic surveys will be necessary in order to monitor and research sea level rise. At the sane time a standardised method of reporting and accounting for the occurrence and social and economic effects of tropical cyclones has been required for many years (Lewis: 1982). Until it has been achieved their usefulness as indicators of increased incidence or effect, on the globally comparative scale necessary for Commonwealth relevance, will not fulfil its ultimate usefulness.
A programme for a series of surveys should be initiated to establish, within parameters of elevation and time periods of sea level rise to be anticipated, the following information:
areas, islands and populations that would be most directly
affected
social, economic and physical impacts, direct and indirect
responses and adjustments to be expected (ie spontaneous)
responses and measures required; immediate and over projected time
scales
a) within the affected area, island or island state
b) beyond the affected area, island or island state. 45
Migration and emigration
In multi-island countries, a mix of low-reef and atoll islands with raised and/or mountainous islands will be the saving of national populations and identity. Migration to the main urban centres will continue. Between island countries and from island to continental countries, will also be continued emigration, principally to urban centres.
Migration and emigration will be triggered incrementally by the incidence and impact of tropical cyclones that can be expected and will increase as sea levels rise. It will not happen all at once.
Left to itself, migration and emigration will inevitably create in some places, squatter or spontaneous settlements and/or substandard dwellings, as has already occurred in Papua New Guinea (Koki, Port
Moresby: see Figure 10, p 38).
Measures are required for the forward planning and accommodation of migrants and emigrants, such as:
understanding and acceptance of the need
identification and allocation of sites and resources
provision of services of garbage removal, water and power
supplies, education and health
assistance with entrance formalities for emigrants 46
assistance with the formation of neighbourhood organisations and
projects for self-build, training, education, language learning
etc
financial assistance
social services and counselling
public information programmes.
Co-ordination
Inclusive of coastal land-use controls (see preparedness measures below) coastal zone management should take account of all coastal activities in development, settlement, ecology, and oceanography
(Commonwealth Science Council: 1984). Appropriately funded and managed, this kind of project might be one kind of appropriate context for the co-ordination of Commonwealth action in response to sea level rise. 47
ensures
After vulnerability reduction and human ecological adaptation come a range of institutional and technological responses for preparedness - all of which can be negated, or made more necessary and costly by other activities that result in vulnerability increase.
Warnings
All warnings require accuracy, timeliness, and accessible options for response if they are to be of use; and all warnings from their source require prompt promulgation and receipt. Warnings may be about general rise in sea levels over a long term, directed towards all coastal development agencies and occupants; and/or they may be issued in respect of each tropical cyclone. Warning facilities should be paralleled by public information programmes for effective response achievement.
Physical structures
Physical structures to provide security, particularly from sea-surge, have been the result in Bangladesh of cyclone preparedness programmes since 1973, jointly administered between the Government of Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Red Cross Society. Earthen mounds (.klllas") as refuge for the evacuation of people and cattle when a storm surge is imminent and additionally, 256 large cyclone shelters have been erected in coastal areas (Choudhury: 1986). In contrast, projects for 48
physical protection against the sea have not always been successful, leading to negative changes in coastlines and sea behaviour and/or attracting larger numbers of people to become at risk as the result of their erroneous perception of absolute safety afforded by the new construction (Islam: 1970; Burton et al: 1978; Lewis: 1983b). 49
'nitiatives for ''
Centred in the oceanic regions, regional initiatives will be required for the formulation of survival strategies for each island country.
Taking account of existing regional organisations such as the Pan
Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project (PCDPPP), the
South Pacific Bureau for Economic Co-operation (SPEC) and the
Commonwealth Science Council Coastal Zone Management Programme, strategies should include vulnerability reduction planning, human ecological adaptation, preparedness measures for warnings, construction, relief integration, training and education (Sovaleni:
1982), monitoring and survey and project identification.
Each island and lowland country strategy should take account of its natural and local contexts, hazard experience, and the implications of sea level rise according to topography, population and tropical cyclone incidence as well as its economic, social and cultural identities and development policies.
In particular will be required instigation, co-ordination and assistance in decision making in respect of measures to be taken on account of sea level rise and associated hazards. Regional co- ordination will also be required in survey and monitoring of islands and sea levels; projections of land areas, land-use and populations; warning systems; transportation; communications; funding and insurance; training and education; social and economic accounting of the incidence and effects of tropical cyclone; assessments and 50
projections of costs and benefits of counter measures and in
methodological and technological transference and exchange (Lewis:
1983c).
a) in contexts of decreasing population and economic output
b) in contexts of increased population and indeterminate economic
output.
Disaster itself can only be managed locally and nationally, though that may depend in part upon some regional initiatives.
Economic and financial implications
Economic and financial implications should not all be seen as being entirely additional to existing programmes. The more pervasive and widely accessible are established systems of communications, transportation, health and education for example, the greater is their efficacy in emergency. Development budgets may thus subscribe to survival strategies and survival strategies will contribute to development and the practical integration of projects and programmes.
Vith reference to the effects of sea level rise (Section 6), policy formulation will require extension for development decision making; as sea levels rise, hazards increase, and depopulation ensues, at what point will development cease to be feasible? 51
Organisational and last national arrangements
Administration and co-ordination for natural hazards are only partially to do with emergencies and disasters. Other requirements relate to a comprehensive variety of sectors and time phases which have more to do with monitoring, management and planning at both national and local levels, than with posf disaster organisation
These activities must be made more widely established and instituted because they are the crucial medium for successful adjustment to rising sea levels (see Table 4: p 40V 52
10 other countries
This paper has been addressed on behalf of Commonwealth island and low lying countries. In so doing its contents will have a direct relevance also to islands which form part of continental Commonwealth countries, such as the Lacadive, Hicobar and Andaman Islands (India); and islands off Kenya, Malaysia, Sierra Leone and Tanzania for example.
The paper will also be relevant to all continental countries except the land-locked, both within and outside the Commonwealth. 53
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