SOUTH-EAST FINLAND – ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013

Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

THE COASTAL EROSION MAP FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. COMPILATION - METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS

Daria Ryabchuk, Vladimir Zhamoida, Alexander Sergeev, Olga Kovaleva, Elena Nesterova, Leonid Budanov

St. Petersburg 2014

This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland

SOUTH-EAST FINLAND – RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013

Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

State Geological Unitary Company «Mineral»

Committee for Nature Use, Environmental Protection and Ecological Safety of St. Petersburg City Administration

A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute

THE COASTAL EROSION MAP FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. COMPILATION - METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS

Daria Ryabchuk, Vladimir Zhamoida, Alexander Sergeev, Olga Kovaleva, Elena Nesterova, Leonid Budanov

Contacts:

Daria Ryabchuk VSEGEI Phone +7 (812) 328 90 01 Fax + 7 (812) 328 91 59 E-mail [email protected]

This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Contents

1. Method of coastal development study, analyses and prognosis ...... 5 1.1. Current coastal processes assessment - materials and methods ...... 5 Methods of coastal zone study and monitoring ...... 5 Method of laser scanning ...... 5 1.2. Method of compilation of the coastal erosion map (for current situation) ...... 5 Mapping of the wave impact zone ...... 6 Coastal vulnerability ...... 6 1.3. Method of the coastal erosion map (for different climate change scenarios) compilation ...... 9 2. Assessment of St. Petersburg marine coastal zone (the Eastern and the Neva Bay) ...... 12 2.1. Current status of the coasts ...... 12 2.2. Comparison of predictable coastal erosion rates for current climate situation and different climate change scenarios ...... 23 3. Recommendations on coast protection and negative consequences of climate change for coastal zone ...... 24 References ...... 26

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This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland

SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Coastal zones with their beaches are always being attractive for tourists. Nowadays the level of anthropogenic impact is getting higher that can lead not only to development of coastal infrastructure but also to activation of exogenous geological processes such as erosion. According to last assessment around 70-90% of European coasts undergo erosion (Pranzini et al., 2013). Studying of interaction between humanity and coastal zones have great importance. Study of coastal processes within marine coastal zone of St. Petersburg has shown that coastal erosion is one of the most intense geological hazards. Most probably, coastal erosion will become more active and dangerous in future due to possible climate change. In frame of CLIPLIVE project the methodology of coastal erosion prognosis for the current climate situation and different climate change scenarios was developed.

1. Method of coastal development study, analyses and prognosis

1.1. Current coastal processes assessment - materials and methods

Methods of coastal zone study and monitoring side-scan mosaic of the entire study area. Repeated profiling (with a total length of about 400 km) has been A complex study of the coasts and the nearshore of the used to establish the properties of bathymetry and eastern Gulf of Finland coastal zone was performed by sediment dynamics. This dataset has been used as a the VSEGEI in 2000-2014. Alongshore field basis for several previous studies (for example, observations, seafloor and beach sediment sampling Ryabchuk et al. 2007, 2009, 2011). and measurements of beach profiles were carried out onshore. Method of laser scanning

Marine geological studies of the near-shore bottom Laser scanning for key-area within Komarovo beach adjacent to the Kurortny District consisted of more was undertaken twice – 16 October, 2012 and 18 than 1000 km of side-scan profiling (CM2, C-MAX Ltd, November, 2013 by Geodesic Company “Orion” using UK) with a search swath of 100 m, 50 m and 25 m using laser scanner “RIEGL VZ-400” N 9998130 (Austria) from a working acoustic frequency of 102 and 325 kHz as 12 points of measurements. Vertical and horizontal well as echo-sounding (sounding frequency: 200 kHz scanning density was 3 cm (+ 5 mm) for 100 m. Total and 455 kHz). Surface sediment samples were taken amount of information – 125.5 million points. with the use of grab-cores and Niemisto cores. A large Positioning of scanner was done using electronic number of profiles located perpendicular to the tacheometer “LEICA TS06 Untra (2”)” N 1332104 shoreline with the distance between them of 185 m (in (Austria). Analyses of laser scanning data were case of search swath 100 m) allowed construction of a undertaken in VSEGEI using GIS (AcrGIS 10.0).

1.2. Method of compilation of the coastal erosion map (for current situation) The compilation of the coastal risk map (for current One of the critical parameters needed for the coastal climatic situation) based on prognosis of coastal zone development forecast is the level of wave impact on development for 50 and 100 years time periods. the coast. For establishing of this level we used data of annual observations (VSEGEI field work since 2005), GIS Rate of coastal erosion depends on: dataset of on-land relief (scale 1:100 00), high • on-land and off-shore geology; resolution remote sensing data (space images) and • coastal slope inclination; topographic elements from St.Petersburg City Master • modern tectonic movements; Plan. • direction and intense of sediment flows; The height of wave impact differs within different • hydrometeorological factors (in the Eastern Gulf of areas of St.Petersburg sea coastal zone. According to Finland - wave climate, sea-water level, sea-ice results of levelling it varies from 2-3 m for northern conditions, including intense and frequency of coast of the Gulf outside St.Petersburg Flood extreme events). Protection Facility (FPF); to 2 m for the northern coast

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This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland

SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) of the Neva Bay (before FPF construction was water plants on the coast is complicated. During completed) and about 1 m for the eastern and summer time they can defend beaches from southern coast of the Neva Bay. erosion, while autumn and winter storm - taken place during the absence of water plants – can Mapping of the wave impact zone cause coastal erosion. In such a case, we divided Different segments of the St.Petersburg coastal zone “beach width” as a space between marine edge of have special features important for the coastal zone water plant zone and erosion escarpment (or development analyses. hypsometric level +1 m line).

Northern coast of the Gulf of Finland within St. Eastern coast of the Neva Bay: Petersburg: 1. Eastern coast of the Neva Bay is represented mainly 1. Northern coast of the Gulf outside FPF is by technogenic type (Report-1) – different types of characterized by numerous local embayed sand concrete or stone coast protection structures, sea- beaches, divided by boulder-pebble (glacial walls and groins with steep slopes highly exposed moraine) capes. For this coastal type “beach width” to wave impact. In case of good conditions of coast was determined as space between average annual protection structures this type of coast is stable. position of the shoreline and active erosion The area of wave impact for this type of the coast is escarpment of foredune base (usually marked by mapping as a “line”. bushes and trees on its tops). 2. Artificial islands (territories) without coast 2. For the erosion coastal areas composed mainly protection structures are the very special type of from boulder-pebble bench, the “beach width” is technogenic coasts. Wave impact zone in such a represented by a narrow (usually 2-4 m wide) case can be rather narrow due to a huge number of boulder strip between average annual shoreline buildings, but the level of wave impact can be very position and stable tree and shrubbery vegetation. high. During the first stage of artificial coast 3. For the wide stable sandy beaches of accretion development the equilibrium profile is forming; areas (Sonechnoye village, town) the during the next stage – coastal erosion takes place. “beach width” corresponds to the space between Coastal vulnerability shoreline and foredune base. For the ranging of the coasts according to vulnerability Southern coast of the Gulf of Finland within St. to erosion we used a genetic map of coastal types Petersburg : (Report-1) (table 1) as far as the coasts of different 1. Southern coast of the Neva Bay is characterized by origin are characterized by different erosion trends. very flat coastal slope. The vast areas of the near-

shore water plants embarrass the mapping of areas of wave impact (“beach width”). The impact of Group Type Subtype Straightening embayed Boulder (till) erosion Low Straightening embayed Boulder (till) erosion Low, with water plants in the nearshore Straightening embayed Sand erosion Low Straightening embayed Sand erosion Low, with water plants in the nearshore Straightening embayed Sand erosion/accretion Low Straightening embayed Sand erosion/accretion Low Straightening embayed Sand accretion Low Straightening embayed Sand accretion Low, with water plants in the nearshore Straightening embayed Silty-clay accumulation Low Straightened Sand accretion Low Straightened Sand accretion Low, with water plants in the nearshore Straightening embayed Artificial Artificial land and islands Straightening embayed Artificial With coast protection and hydrotechnical constructions

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This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland

SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Straightening embayed Artificial With sand accretion in the nearshore Straightening embayed Artificial With sand accretion and water plants in the nearshore Table 1. Genetic types distribution of the St. Petersburg marine coastal zone

Short-term coastal line changes and method of image). For the shoreline and cliff retreat calculation compilation of the prognostic map of coastal line we have chosen several “typical” parts of the coastal transformation zone, outstanding by their morphometric and geological features: coastal line exposure, lithological Short-time coastal line changes assessment is based on composition of deposits, trend of modern tectonic retrospective remote sensing data (RSD) analyses. We movement etc. compared series of remote sensing images from 1981 (high resolution air photos by NIIKAM) to space images Based on RSD analyses the coastal segments with the from Internet recourse (for example, Bing maps). same trend of cliff (foredune) position changing (or stablility) were chosen. Technogenic coasts with hard Georeferencing and GIS analyses of different remote coast protection structures was excluded from sensing material were taken using ArcMap 9.3 analyses. For the rest coastal segments the “key software. As a basic image we used the most detailed points” for measurements of coastal parameters space image with a build-in geo-reference. Overlaying (beach width, position of cliff or foredune, beach of space fragment to the separate coastal segments sediments type, boulder-pebble bench) were chosen. allowed to avoid geometric mistakes. Coordinate Altogether 42 “key-points” were put around Gulf of system WGS 84 UTM zone 34N was used. Finland coast within St.Petersburg. The results of coast Digitizing of shoreline and cliff (or foredune base) transformation were calculated for each “key-point” position was undertaken for each time slice (for each (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Sample of the table of RMD analyses.

The shoreline and cliff position retreat was calculated Interpolation of the coastal parameters’ for the time period between the space images, after transformation between 42 “key-points” was made that the average values of coastal transformation using kriging method with finding the next 12 points on (m/year) were determined. Zoning of the coastal zone a spherical model. Resulted grids were as a basis for according erosion rate was based on calculated values dividing of coastal line to the segments with and information about beach sediments and increments of shoreline change of 0.5 m per year. For lithodinamics trends.

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This Programme is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland

SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

each segment, a buffer zone was mapped according to prognosis to 50 and 100 years. The next step was an expert assessment of the shoreline transformation taking into account the geological and morphological structure of the coastal zone. Method of the prognosis estimation of the shoreline position

The beach width is not very convenient criteria for the Fig. 3. Prognosis of erosion rates depending on depth of glacial till coastal erosion prognosis as this value is too much surface position. changeable depending on storm’s direction and intensity, as well as coastal zone capacity to recovering According to results of GIS analyses of RSD the coastal after severe storms. Position of foredune’s cliff position segment of the northern coast between Komarovo and can be more reliable criteria of the coastal zone Solnechnoye villages is the most vulnerable, as the transformation. On the other hand the beach width permanent cliff erosion synchronic with the beach should not be excluded from prognosis as stability of width decreasing is observed. The same conclusion was the foredune depends mainly on “protective” qualities received by the mathematic modeling (Report-1). So of the beach. The conceptual model of coastal zone under existent hydro- and lithodinamic conditions the transformation for sandy beached is shown at Fig. 2. beach here have reached “critical” width. Coastal segment between Solnechnoye village and Dubovskoy Cape can be attributed as a most stable with very low (or 0) erosion rate.

Conceptual model of the shoreline change for coasts with inclusions of glacial till sectors, where easily erodible surface sand sediments overlay the boulders and pebbles, shows resistance of such coasts to wave erosion; the graph will have another shape (Fig. 4). Fig. 2. Conceptual model of the shoreline change (sandy beaches). Blue line (on the left graph) shows decreasing of the beach width to the critical value; after that the beach lose its protection quality and cliff erosion and retreat starts. Blue line (on the right graph) shows changing of cliff position. During severe storm surges due to increasing of water level above the critical values the beach becomes a part of a nears-shore zone; erosion of the cliff of the foredune starts. Exposition of a coastal line plays an important role – wave impact perpendicular to the Fig. 4. Conceptual model of the shoreline change for glacial till shoreline causes cliff erosion, and off-shore beach (moraine) coast. sediment migration. If wave front comes with the small Considering the mechanism of long-term coastal zone angle to the shoreline – the longshore drift takes place. development in more detail, the graphs of beach width At the next step of analyses the impact of glacial till decreasing and cliff position retreat get a “step” shape surface position on the shoreline and cliff retreat was (Fig. 5) due to periodic erosion events during severe calculated (Fig. 3). storm surges, which lead to drastic cliff retreat and beach increasing caused by erosion material mobilization.

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Hereby, prognosis of the shoreline and cliff retreat consists of two stages:

1 – evaluation of the beach width which decrease meaning the beach role as a natural coast protection; 2 – evaluation of the coastal cliff retreat as the most dangerous process for recreation infrastructure and significant changes in lithodynamics.

Fig. 5. Specification of the conceptual model of the coastal zone Compiled map was transformed into a coastal risk map development considering erosion events. (for current situation) using a risk matrix.

1.3. Method of the coastal erosion map (for different climate change scenarios) compilation The main advantage of scientific investigations is using software. As before it was determined a distance from of a complex approach to solve a research problem. an initial position to a bench crest, a water boundary The methodology of compilation of predictive coastal and a width of a beach for each new point (Fig. 6). erosion map for different climate change scenarios was Based on obtained data the beach and cliff dynamics based on previous investigations and the previous was computed. During such study 47 new “key-points” version of the map. First of all, the database of “key- were added to a list. Finally 89 points in total displayed points” was extended. An analysis of remote sensing the rate of the coastal zone retreat or accumulation in data carried out with the help of the Google Earth meter per year unit.

Fig. 6. Example of an Excel-sheet with new “key-points”.

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Sandy coasts of the Eastern Gulf of Finland are Such events occur when three unfavorable conditions characterized by the highest rate of erosion and take place simultaneously: shoreline retreat, while nearshore outcropping of (i) long-lasting western or south-western storms that glacial till is one of mechanisms of erosion bring high waves to the area in question, deceleration. As the first step of a map compilation (ii) high water level (more than 2 m above the mean moraine outcrops on the beach and the nearshore level as measured by the Gorny Institute water were found out. The main sources of these data were level measurement post, and, most importantly, field records and observations (annual field study (iii) absence of stable sea ice during such events 2004-2013); additional information was obtained from (Ryabchuk et al., 2011). the data of the Google Earth software. The less stable According to observations, since 2004 the frequency of zones were represented as human-strengthened coasts occurrence of such unfortunate combinations (i.e., embankments, piers, harbours, etc.). Besides that apparently has increased and observed three times the rivers on the beach were marked out. It is very (during autumn and winter storms and floods of 2006- hard to predict a response of these objects on climate 2007, 2011 and 2013). Each time extreme coastal change and sea level rise. erosion events took place during relatively warm Observations of the coastal processes of the Eastern winters. As coastal erosion can be definitely classified Gulf of Finland shore within St.Petersburg city have as a „climate dependent“ geological hazard, proper shown its recent drastic intensification. There are understanding of possible future development of such several natural and anthropogenic reasons of this climatic factors as annual time of ice coverage, sea- process. level change and storminess is very important for prediction and mitigation of future damage of coastal From geological and lithodynamics points of view the infrastructure and choosing of adaptation strategy. coasts are relatively young and apparently have not reached an equilibrium state. The geometry of the Gulf Analyses of three mentioned factors have shown that of Finland and Neva Bay is such that only storms from a for some of them are not possible to develop more or narrow range of directions may cause high wave loads less adequate prognoses using available scenarios. It is and storm surges in this area. The specific feature of possible to predict changing of ice-coverage time and the coasts in question is that they are jointly impacted an average sea-level rise. On the other hand prognosis by several geological, geomorphic, of storminess and extreme increase of water level is hydrometeorological and anthropogenic factors, the practically impossible by now. magnitude of which may vary in a wide range That is why the next stage of predictive coastal erosion depending on a particular event and region. The map was a mathematical modelling of erosion rates in geological and geomorphic factors determine the long- case of different climate change scenarios. term coastal zone development. The most important prerequisite of relatively rapid coastal erosion in the Along the whole extent the coastal zone was divided area in question is the composition and properties of on several parts depending on the shoreline coastal deposit. The coasts mostly consist of easily orientation. All coastal segments are characterized by a erodible Quaternary deposits (clays and sands). They general profile perpendicular to a coastal line. The evolve under overall sediment deficit which is partially profiles reflect structure of the beach profile and the augmented by numerous boulder belts formed as a underwater coastal slope. “Key-points” for modelling result of glacial till erosion. Moreover, some specific, which belong to profiles are located on sandy areas of small-scale features of the near-shore bottom (such as the coastal zone because a mathematical simulation submarine terrace erosion, erosion runnels and other was applied only for sandy beach without bedrock points of sediment loss) play a very important role in outcrops. The profiles are located in villages Komarovo, the entire erosion process (Ryabchuk et al., 2011). Solnechnoe, Olgino, Ushkovo, the southern coast of Kronshtadt, an area northward of the The most extreme erosion events are controlled by a Flood Protection Facility (FPB on Fig.7) and Sestroretsk specific combination of hydrometeorological factors. (Fig. 7).

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Fig. 7. Location of profiles and prediction of coastal recession: values in shaded rectangle show erosion rate correspond to pessimistic scenario, values in white rectangle – optimistic scenario.

The mathematical simulation developed by Dr. Igor once per 25 years in the 20th century. Considering the Leont'ev (Fig. 8) is based on two ideas. The first one ongoing climate change the period of occurrence describes the recession of a coastline or a bench crest severe storms can be diminished till once per 10 years. under conditions of increase of storm events Another idea supposes retreat of a beach profile with occurrence. It is referred to severe storms with high of global sea level rise. Modelling of the coastline a storm surge no less than 2 m [Leontiev et al., 2014]. recession can be carried out with help of the Bruun rule [Bruun, 1988]. Under the project it was used 3 Komarovo scenarios of climate change AB1, A1, B2 represented in

storm surge 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 IPCC 2007. It means the sea level rise was taken as

0.4m for the favorable situation and 1 m for

1 unfavorable situation by the 2100th year. Therefore calm water level 0 s1 =19 m two master plans of the coasts recession were formed, Elevation, m s =38m 2 so called optimistic scenario was characterized by sea -1 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 level rise (SLR) of 0.4 m and severe storm events Distance, m occurrence of once per 25 years, less kindly conditions (SLR – 1 m and severe storm events occurrence of once Fig. 8. Predictable changes of coast for the next century under per 10 years) are indicative of so called pessimistic influences of 10 extreme storm events (as an example, Komarovo scenario. The table shows the data obtained by the village). Maximum coast recession due to storm activity is 36 m. mathematical modelling (Table 2). The obtained data were combined with the remote sensing data and were According to data encountered in the literature interpolated on whole extent of the coastal zone. [Barkov, 1990] such events happened approximately

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Recession Recession due Recession Profile Recession due to Overall Overall due to SLR, to storm due to SLR, storm activity, m recession, m recession, m m activity, m m Komarovo 19 6 25 38 16 54

Solnechnoe 15 9 24 26 22 48

Olgino 12 12 24 20 30 50

Ushkovo 8 16 24 9 40 49

Kotlin island 5 16 21 6 40 46

FPИ (or FBF) 0 100 100 0 250 250

Sestroretsk 0 200 200 0 500 500 Table 2. Data show recession of the coastline of the bench crest at studied profiles.

Obtained results allow classifying profiles on 3 types. extreme storm events a dune is fragmentary The first type (Komarovo, Olgino and Solnechnoe destroyed, but after that a profile stabilizes. The last villages) is characterized by well-pronounced erosion type (FPF and Sestroretsk) is characterized by passive and cliff recession, a beach profile becomes gentler. inundation due to sea level rise. Such type is typical for coasts with sediment starvation A geographical informational system (ArcGis 10.0 where sand material is washed away. Coast sections of software) was used for display of results. Produced the second type (Ushkovo village and Kotlin Island) shp-files were converted to a format of the Google have very gentle underwater slope that decrease Earth software which is handier for visual display of energy of incoming waves. Sediment material moves to erosion rate. a beach, it leads to width beach extending. During

2. Assessment of St. Petersburg marine coastal zone (the Eastern Gulf of Finland and the Neva Bay)

2.1. Current status of the coasts Traditionally the coastal zone of the easternmost Marine coastal zone of St.Petersburg city could be (Russian) part of the Gulf of Finland has not been subdivided into two part, differ from litho- and considered as an area of active litho- and morphodynamics point of view – i) northern coast of morphodynamics, but a recent study has shown that the Gulf of Finland within the Kurortny District (from the easternmost part of the coastal zone suffers from cape Flotsky to St.Petersburg Flood Protection Facility) erosion. Within some coastal segments the shoreline and ii) coasts of semi-closed “technogenic lagoon” – recession rate reaches 2 – 2.5 m/year. the Neva Bay (Fig. 9).

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Fig. 9. Marine coastal zone of St.Petersburg

The Kurortny District coast has special importance as a shoreline between Cape Lautaranta and Solnechnoye is unique recreation zone of the North-West of Russia. It oriented in the WNW–ESE direction and forms quite a is also a key nature protection and conservation area large angle with respect to the largest waves reaching hosting three nature reserves including Komarovo this coastal section from the west. Differently from Beach - a complex of unique sand beaches and coastal other coastal sections, these beaches are largely open dune landscapes. Coastal erosion is one of the most to the west, that is, in the direction of one of the serious problems of the area. The analysis of historical longest fetches in the Baltic Sea (up to 400 km). Strong materials, archive aerial photographs and modern westerly storms frequently bring here high and high-resolution satellite images have shown that relatively long waves that cause predominant littoral advancing parts of coast are almost non-existant with drift to the east. The attack angle of waves propagating most sections of the coast being eroded and further to this section from the open part of the Gulf of Finland retreating. Field monitoring between 2004 and 2011 decreases to almost zero at Solnechnoye where showed intense damage to sandy beaches during longshore sediment flow to the east ceases and sand autumn and winter storms and progressive erosion of accretion zone is found. the dunes system. The distribution of surface sediments in the Neva Bay Among the most important natural reasons for the area is shown in Fig. 10. Among these deposits, till is erosion processes are hydrometeorological processes frequently playing an important, sometimes twofold and geological structure of the coastal zone. The entire role.

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE)

Fig. 10. Map of Quaternary deposits in the Neva Bay area. Legends 1-8 represent Holocene deposits and 9-11 represent Pleictocene deposits. 1 – Technogeic deposits; 2 - Aolian deposits; 3 - biogenic deposits; 4 - lacustrine deposits; 5 - Limnea marine deposits; 6 - Litorina and Limnea marine deposits; 7 - Litorina marine deposits; 8 - Ancylus Lake deposits; 9 - Baltic Ice Lake deposits; 10 - limno-glacial deposits of Luga stage; 11 - glacial deposits; 12 - preQuaternary bedrocks; 13 - sand with gravel and pebble; 14 - sand; 15 - sandy till; 16 - varved clay; 17 - clay; 18 - mud; 19 - peat; 20 - stratigraphic boundaries; 21 - lithologic boundaries; 22 - coastal sand ridges; 23 - sites of dating (age in thous. years, method/sample number)

Usually it contains a large number of pebbles, cobbles may lead to sediment starvation (deficiency) and more and boulders. In the process of its erosion the fine intense erosion downdrift from coastal section hosting sediment is relatively rapidly carried away by waves such a belt. and currents. The pebbles, cobbles and boulders, Boulder belts are widely spread between Cape however, are mostly immobile and form after some Lautaranta and Solnechnoye village. From the total time a stone belt on the beachface and in the length of about 45 km of this coastal zone some 19 km nearshore. This feature is typical for till beaches in the host boulders both on shore and in the near-shore Gulf of Finland and such belts have been identified in a zone (Table 3, Fig. 11). At places such boulder belts are number of studies of the structure of the nearshore. located only at certain depths or are interspersed with Such stone belts prevent the coasts and the underlying several longshore sand bars. Within areas of intense deposits from further erosion and make the entire erosion, however, sandy sediment between boulders is beach almost insensitive with respect to typical levels rare. Only after infrequent events of strong eastern of hydrodynamic factors. An adverse feature of such winds (which transport sand from the usual accretion belts, especially when they cover the entire surf and zones back to transit or erosional areas) areas covered swash zone is that no fine sediments are released from by thin layer of sand occur among stone belts. Such a the protected coastal sections. Their effect, therefore, layer can be up to 0.2 m thick, but usually its thickness may be equivalent to the presence of a seawall and does not exceed 0.05-0.1 m and it is very irregular.

Coastal types Length, km % Low sand accretion coast, 1 3,6 8,0 smoothing by erosion with small bays Low sand accretion coast with erosion in the nearshore, 2 7,5 16,6 smoothing by erosion with small bays 3 Low boulder (till) coast, 18,8 41,7

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smoothing by erosion with small bays Low sand erosion coast, 4 2,3 5,1 smoothing by erosion with small bays 5 Technogenic coast 2,0 4,5 Low mud accumulation coast 6 3,9 8,6 with water plants on the nearshore surface 7 Low accretion coast, stable 7,0 15,5 Total length 45,1 Table 3. Coast types distribution (Kurortny District).

value and therefore their evolution is essential for the

15,5 8 development of the district. They, however, have a 16,6 1 8,6 2 limited amount of sand in their active body. The 3 beaches are 30-40 m wide in sections with dunes but 4 5 4,4 usually boulders are found already at small distances 6 5,1 7 offshore. At some places 2-4 sand bars are observed 41,7 that are interspersed with boulders or till outcrops in the runnels.

Fig. 11. Diagram of the coast types distribution (Kurortny District). Within the Neva Bay (to the east of Flood Protection Coastal types in Table 3 Facility) coastal types distribution differs. Two coastal The major sand accretion section, with a total length of types - low mud accumulation coast with water plants 15.5 km is located between Solnechnoye and on the nearshore surface and technogenic coast prevail Dybovskoy Cape. Certain coastal sections (about 4 km here (about 40% of total length) (Table 4, Fig. 12). in length) are protected by huge bushes of water plants and a few parts (2 km) by hard coastal engineering structures. The sandy beaches have a high recreational

Coastal types Length, km % 1 Technogenic 19,9 23,3 Low boulder (till) coast, smoothing by erosion 2 3,7 4,4 with small bays and water plants on the nearshore surface Low mud accumulation coast 3 30,4 35,7 with water plants on the nearshore surface Low sand accretion coast with erosion in the nearshore, 4 5,6 6,6 smoothing by erosion with small bays 5 Technogenic (with sand accretion in the nearshore) 14,4 17,0 Low boulder (till) coast, 6 8,1 9,5 smoothing by erosion with small bays Low sand accretion coast, smoothing by erosion 7 2,8 3,3 with small bays and water plants on the nearshore surface Low sand accretion coast, 8 0,1 0,2 smoothing by erosion with small bays Total length 85,0 Table 4. Coast types distribution (the Neva Bay).

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Solnechnoye. The shallow nearshore terrace is very

3,3 0,2 9,5 23,3 1 narrow here (just about 500 m). Seaward from it there 2 17 is a relatively steep slope down to a depth of 5-6 m. It 3 4 is highly probable that the shallow part of the profile 5 4,4 6 has not reached the full width of the corresponding 6,6 7 equilibrium profile. In the process of its lengthening 8 35,7 under severe wave conditions, a significant amount of sediment is transported from the terrace to its foot. Fig.12. Diagram of the coast types distribution (the Neva Bay). This is an apparent reason why the accretion beaches – Coastal type s in Table 4. the widest in the area – are not growing any more in The beaches in the Kurortny District are located in the this coastal section (Ryabchuk et al. 2007). area of slow uplift or tectonic stability (Yaduta, 2006) In conclusion, geological and geomorphic features of which to some extent stabilizes the coastline. Several the northern coast of Neva Bay area from Cape features of the nearshore bathymetry play an Lautaranta to Solnechnoye combined with the important role in coastal processes in this area. prevailing approach direction of the largest waves are Recently it has been demonstrated that a 1.5-2 km favorable for the presence of intense littoral drift and, wide submarine terrace is located at a depth of 2--3 m consequently, high overall activity of coastal processes. (Ryabchuk et al. 2007, Ryabchuk et al. 2009). Its foot is This coastal section forms a single large erosional- located at depths of 8-12 m (Fig. 13). The presence of accretional lithodynamic system in which longshore such a terrace may substantially alter the intensity sediment transport occurs almost entirely to the east. and/or direction of storm waves and thus considerably As littoral flow around Cape Lautaranta (which is modify the properties of coastal processes and littoral protected by a belt of boulders, see above) is fairly drift. In particular, its presence usually reduces the small, the major erosion areas are located in the intensity of sediment loss from the vicinity of shoreline western part of this compartment and accretion takes in the process of gradual elongation of the equilibrium place in the section from Solnechnoye to Cape beach profile because less material is needed to fill the Dubovskoy. In the long-term perspective, the entire seaward end of this profile. shoreline of this compartment undergoes smoothing as The sea bottom seaward from the terrace contains a result of erosion, transit and accretion processes. several erosion runnels (Fig. 13). Repeated surveys As it was mentioned in chapter I (methodics), long- confirm that the location and shape of these runnels term tendency of coastal dynamics caused by are quite stable in spite of their small relative depth geological and geomorphological features, while the (0.3-0.5 m). Their bottom contains numerous ripples of most extreme erosion events are controlled by a about 0.2 m in height separated from each other by a specific combination of hydrometeorological driving distance of 0.5-1 m. The surface of the terrace and the forces. sea bottom near its foot are covered by fine to medium sand while the bottom of the runnels (incl. ripples) A series of severe storms accompanied with high consists of coarser sand. The described features surges in autumn 2006 - winter 2007 caused abrupt suggest that typical near-bottom water velocities are erosion events that have changed the appearance of highest in the runnels. Therefore, it is probable that the many sections of the coast more than decades of runnels frequently host intense seaward near-bottom previous, relatively slow development. The water level currents. They eventually channel back to open sea the rose more than 2 m above the long-term mean in St. excess water forced to the vicinity of the coastline by Petersburg during these events. In particular, these wind and waves similarly as rip currents do. As the flow storm events caused extensive erosion of coastal dunes velocities apparently are relatively high in the runnels, along the entire 3 km part of the shore where they they may serve as an important way of sediment loss exist at Komarovo village and along some sections of to offshore (Ryabchuk et al. 2009). the coast at Solnechnoye. The extent of changes to the dunes, documented immediately after the storms on Another important feature is the structure of the 29 October 2006 and 11 January 2007, was observed coastal profile in the sediment accumulation area near for the first time within, at least, last 20 years.

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A

B

Fig. 13. A – scheme of dynamics of the northern coastal zone of Eastern Gulf of Finland. 1 – offshore sediment transport along erosion runnels; 2 – longshore sediment flow; 3 – direction of sediment transport towards the foot of submarine terrace in the area of longshore sediment flow discharge; 4 – edge of submarine terrace; B - side-scan sonar mosaic of erosion runnels (up to 20 m wide, 600 m long, 0,5 m deep) with sand ripples (heights 20-30 cm; distance between crests – 50-100 cm).

The storms may even have substantially changed the stable sea ice cover caused by rather cold Decembers). overall course of coastal processes because since 2007 But in autumn and beginning of winter 2011-2012 as a the coastal dunes have not been naturally restored by result of extreme storms serious intensification of 2011 as autumn and winter seasons of 2008-2010 were coastal processes was observed. In the Eastern Gulf of relatively calm (with just one flood of 180 cm, and Finland 26-28 of November and 23-31 of December a

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SOUTH-EAST FINLAND - RUSSIA ENPI CBC 2007 – 2013 Climate Proof Living Environment (CliPLivE) storm surge (with wind speed up to 24-28 m/s and infrastructure, complete transformation of sand water level outside St. Petersburg Flood Protection accretion spits (Fig. 14). Effect of storm surge was Facility up to 235 cm above normal sea level) occurred. much higher outside the Flood Protection Facility as a Wave impact on the coasts was more intense due to result of its impact on hydrodynamic regime. In the absence of ice cover as December 2011 was the other hand, observations have shown that intense of warmest since beginning of weather observation. erosion processes within Neva Bay, where coast are Severe storm caused extreme erosion events damaged protected by Flood Protection Facility drastically the coastal dunes with forming of active escarpment, decreased. destruction of coast protection and recreation

Fig. 14. Beach and dune erosion after winter storm (28 December) and evolution of the beach profile within Komarovo village (area of beach nourishment in 1988).

The rate of erosion escarpment retreat was the highest different parts – i) beach segment with “natural” during observation period (since 2004) and reached 5 environment and ii) area with active technogenic m per storm (Fig. 14, down panel). In 2012 processes (recreation activity). It is important to hydrometeorological factors did not show any mention that study area was the only place of extremes, so coastal dunes have started to restore experimental beach nourishment in the Russian part of again. The next phase of erosion processes the Gulf of Finland. intensification was observed after autumn and winter The first measurements here were done by prof. storms of 2013-2014. In order to receive quantitative K.Orviku in 1987, when as a result of series of extreme assessment of erosion the repeated laser scanning of storms erosion escarpment was formed in the the key-area in Komarovo beach was organized. backshore. In 1988 beach nourishment took place For the repeated laser scanning (carried out in 2012 here. Along a 430 m long section of the coast at and 2013) one of the areas of active coastal dynamics Komarovo, an artificial beach 50 m wide and 2 m high (according to annual coastal monitoring of 2004-2013 was created, with the total sand volume of 32 250 m3 and analyses of previous year’s data) was chosen. (Ryabchuk et al. 2009). By 1989 the equilibrium profile Study area is located within Nature Protected Area in started to form; between 1989 and 1995 erosion Komarovo village. Small sand beach (500 m of escarpment shifted landward by 10 m. Another 4 m shoreline, 11550 m2) can be subdivided into two was eroded between 1995 and summer of 2011

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(Fig.14, down panel). Annual observation and leveling October 29, 2013, “Saint Jude” hurricane with SW wind on this profile were undertaken by VSEGEI since 2004. speed up to 20 m/s reached the studied area (Fig.15). For the first time during observation period severe According to modelling (meteo.pl) wave height in the erosion events were observed within study area during open part of the Gulf near the Kurortny District was autumn and winter storms on 2006-2007 and 2011. By more than 3 m. autumn 2012 the coastal profile stabilized and the first laser scanning was undertaken.

12:00 15:00 18:00

Fig. 15. Wave height in the Baltic Sea, the 29th of October, 2013 (wave model WAM)(www.meteo.pl).

Water level measured in Shepelevo and Primorsk was Repino village (to the east of the Komarovo beach) was 86 cm and 77 cm higher than average. According to totally flooded (Fig. 16), waves reached a highway of visual observations, storm water surge within study about 3 m high (Fig. 16, 17). area was 1.5-2 m. Observations have shown that the Sandy beaches were under the wave impact by the sand beaches and coastal infrastructure were seriously backshore (from 15-20 to 50 m wide). threatened by waves. For example, a promenade in

Fig. 16. Flooded promenade in Repino village. 29.10.2013.

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Fig. 17. Storm wave impact on promenade and beach in Repino village. 29.10.2013.

The next severe storm (hurricane “Hilda”) took place intense coastal damage observed along the southern on 17.11.2013. Wind gusts reached 24 m/s, wave coast of the Gulf (Fig.19). The impact of both storms on height according to modelling (meteo.pl) (Fig. 18) the coasts of the Eastern Gulf of Finland was very exceeded 3 m. Cyclone track was different in serious. Laser scanning was organized right after the comparison with “Saint Jude” hurricane, so the most storm surges.

12:00 15:00 18:00

Fig. 18. Wave height in the Baltic Sea, the 17th of November, 2013 (wave model WAM) (www.meteo.pl).

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Fig. 19. Erosion of sand beach in Lebyazhye village (southern coast of the Gulf).

Repeated laser scanning has shown the distribution of longest fetches in the Baltic Sea. The geometry of sand erosion, transit and redeposition zones and the Gulf of Finland and Neva Bay is such that only permitted to calculate its volume (Fig.20). storms from a narrow range of directions may cause high wave loads and storm surges in this Measurements have shown significant sand erosion area. along the beach escarpment. Total volume of removed 3 sand reached 847 m . Maximal thickness of eroded 2. The most extreme erosion events are controlled by sand layer is 0.8 m; total volume of eroded sand is 459 a specific combination of hydrometeorological m3. The other part of removed sand volume (388 m3) factors. Such events occur when three unfavorable was redeposited on the surface of beach berm. Area of conditions take place simultaneously: (i) long- maximal thickness of sand deposition is located in the lasting western or south-western storms that bring middle of the study area, to the west of boulder coast high waves to the area in question, (ii) high water protection construction. Amount of sediment loss level (more than 2 m above the mean level as reached 30 m3. Impact of erosion processes are more measured by the Gorny Institute water level intense within eastern part of study area with active measurement post, and, most importantly, (iii) technogenic (recreation) processes. absence of stable sea ice during such events. In connection with the ongoing warming period, since It is important to mention, that in the Neva Bay, 2004 the frequency of occurrence of such protected by St.Petersburg Flood Protection Facility unfortunate combinations apparently has wave impact on the coast during both extreme storms increased. Extreme erosion events (with rate of was practically negligible (Fig. 21). erosion escarpment retreat up to 5 m per storm) observed during autumn and winter periods of Analyses of current status of the St.Petersburg marine 2006-2007, 2011-2011 and 2013-2014. coasts permit to conclude, that: 3. Since the completing of the Flood Protective Facility in 2011 the coasts within Neva Bay are well 1. Coasts of the Neva Bay and Kurortny District, composed of easily erodible Quaternary deposits protected from the extreme erosion events, while are vulnerable to erosion processes. Beaches in this outside the Dam intensity of erosion processes has bay are largely open to the direction of one of the been drastically increased.

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Fig. 20. Results of repeated laser scanning in Komarovo beach.

Fig. 21. Waves in the Neva Bay during Saint Jude storm, October 29, 2013 (compare with Figs. 16, 17).

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2.2. Comparison of predictable coastal erosion rates for current climate situation and different climate change scenarios Obtained results were visualized using Google Earth will be destroyed until the end of the 21st century. For software. Some examples are represented below (Fig. optimistic and pessimistic scenarios such values equal 22 - 24). In total under current climate situation 2.8 and 4.6 square kilometers correspondingly. approximately 1.3 square kilometers of coastal zone

53 m 75 m 50 m A B

Fig. 22. Examples from village. A – coastal erosion rate for current climate situation is 53 meters till 2100 years; B – coastal erosion rates for optimistic (green colour) and pessimistic (red colour) scenarios are 50 and 75 meters correspondingly.

95 m 110 m 75 m

A B Fig. 23. Examples from Komarovo village. A – coastal erosion rate for current climate situation is 96 meters till 2100 years; B – coastal erosion rates for optimistic (green colour) and pessimistic (red colour) scenarios are 75 and 110 meters correspondingly.

115 m 120 m 65 m

A B Fig. 24. Examples from Sestroretsk. A – coastal erosion rate for current climate situation is 115 meters till 2100 years; B – coastal erosion rates for optimistic (green color) and pessimistic (red color) scenarios are 65 and 120 meters correspondingly.

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3. Recommendations on coast protection and negative consequences of climate change for coastal zone

Results of analyses of recent coastal dynamics and on economical and social reasons adaptation measures future development prognosis have shown that to prevent negative consequences of coastal erosion according to any scenarios of climate change marine may include two possible ways: 1) to change City coasts of St.Petersburg will suffer from erosion during Masterplan with removing houses and transport next 100 years. From this point of view development of infrastructure landward, out of potential risk zone; 2) an adaptation strategy is needed. Generally, depending to develop effective coast protection system. 3.1. Characteristics of existing coast protection system of the Eastern Gulf of Finland within St.Petersburg city area The most significant coast protection measures were On contrary, coastal erosion processes outside the FPF carried out during last three centuries along the becomes recently much more risky due to higher eastern coast of the Neva Bay. Since the middle of XVIII extreme storm events frequency and increasing of century the marine coast of St. Petersburg was water level as a result of the Flood Protection Facility nourished with the ground layer from 1 to 4 m thick. impact. Modern effective coast protection measures Together with kilometres of embankments and many are urgently needed here. artificial islands these measures should help to protect First coast protection structures, aiming to stop erosion the city against floods and storms. and protect sandy beaches started there in end of XIX. After a catastrophic flood of 1824, when a major part Unfortunately hard engineering structures (mostly of historical centre of St. Petersburg was damaged, it groins, perpendicular to the shoreline and sea-walls) was decided to protect city from floods by some without sand nourishment were not effective due to engineering constructions. One of proposed projects sediment deficit. First Coast Protection Plan (so called was developed by Pierre Dominic Basen. It was General Scheme of Coast Protection) for the eastern resembled to the project of the Flood Protective most part of the Gulf of Finland coasts was developed Facility which is constructing now. It was proposed to in the late 1980-s, but it was not realized. The only build “a stone dam from the Cape Lisiy Nos to Kotlin successful attempt of coast protection was an Island, through the western part of the island and to experimental beach nourishment in Komarovo village, Oranienbaum” (Reports of Russian Geographical carried out in 1988 (see chapter II). By now the effect Society, volume XXV, 1893, p. 5). of sand nourishment is depleted.

In 1979 complex of the Flood Protection Facility started According to results of annual monitoring of the coast to build. It is represented by two dams between Kotlin protection structures of the Kurortny (Resort) District Island and Neva Bay coasts (near Gorskaya in the north of St.Petersburg we can conclude that: and Bronka in the south) with two navigation passes 1. Hard coast protection structures (seawalls, sloping and several gates for water discharge. In the early seawalls, rock blankets) are not effective. Most of 1990-s hydrotecnical works were interrupted due to them are heavily damaged, lead to intensification of economical and ecological problems, but in 2004 beach erosion (up to full loss of sand material both construction continued. Flood Protection Facility (FPF) onland and offshore), do not protect coast and is completed in 2011. As it was mentioned above since cause decreasing of its recreation value (Fig. 25). completing FPF the coasts within Neva Bay are well 2. In case of groin building, parts of the shore to the protected from coastal erosion. From this point of west of construction can be stabilized, but to the view, construction of the Flood Protection Facility is an east (in the direction of sediment flow) – erosion example of good practice and solution for climate becomes more intense (Fig. 26). change adaptation for the Neva Bay coast.

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Fig. 25. Broken sea-walls in the Kurornty District

Fig. 26. Groins, perpendicular to the shoreline are ineffective due to sediment deficit

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References

Barkov L.K. Character of the lithodynamic processes of the submarine sand carriers in the Eastern Gulf of Finland// Vestnik Leningradskogo Universiteta, 1990, Vol. 28, pp. 31-37 {In Rus.] Барков Л.К. Характер литодинамических процессов в районе разработки подводных карьеров в Финском заливе. // Вестник ЛГУ, 1990. – Л.: изд-во ЛГУ. - N 28. - с.31-37.

Bruun P. The Bruun rule of erosion by sea-level rise: a discussion on large-scale two- and three-dimensional usages// Journal of Coastal Research, 1998, V.4, 627-648.

Leontiev I.O., Ryabchuk D.V., Sergeev A.Yu., Kovaleva O.A. Evolution of the sandy coasts of the eastern Gulf of Finland in XXI century// Materials of XXV International Coastal Conference “Coastal zone – view to the to the future” (13-17 October 2014, Sochi), Vol.1, pp.152-153 [In Rus.]

Pranzini, E., Williams, A. Coastal Erosion and coastal protection in Europe. 2013, 488 p.

Ryabchuk, D., Nesterova, E., Spiridonov, M., Sukhacheva, L., Zhamoida, V., 2007. Modern sedimentation processes within the coastal zone of the Kurortny District of St.Petersburg (eastern Gulf of Finland). Baltica, Vol.20 (1-2), 5-12.

Ryabchuk D., Sukhacheva L., Spiridonov M., Zhamoida V., Kurennoy D. Coastal processes in the Eastern Gulf of Finland – possible driving forces and connection with the near-shore zone development// Estonian Journal of Engineering, 2009, Vol. 15, 3, 151–167.

Ryabchuk, D., Kolesov, A., Chubarenko, B., Spiridonov, M., Kurennoy, D. & Soomere, T. 2011: Coastal erosion processes in the eastern Gulf of Finland and their links with geological and hydrometeorological factors. Boreal Env. Res. 16 (suppl. A): 117–137.

Yaduta V.A. Modern tectonics of Saint-Petersburg and // Mineral, Vol.1, 2006. http://www.mineral-journal.ru/Article/yaduta.htm [In Rus.]

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