Lewis Fry Richardson “The Father of Weather Forecasting”

D f C

f o

s n o c i

Lewis Fry Richardson “The father of Weather forecasting”

t seems almost a dissertation in a competition for the time-step were 3 hours, inconceivable that Lewis a Fellowship at King’s College, then 32 individuals could just Fry Richardson (1881 – but apparently mathematicians compute two points so as to 1953) could have computed from Trinity College were of the keep pace with the weather, if I opinion that this was we allow nothing for the very the first numerical solution of the partial differential “approximate mathematics and great gain in speed which is equations governing the were not impressed” 3. Richardson invariably noticed when a weather 1, by hand, and whilst never returned to Cambridge. complicated operation is serving as an ambulance divided up into simpler parts, driver at the French front in Instead, in 1913, he joined the upon which individuals the 1914-1918 war. Yet that is Meteorological Office, as specialize. the truth of the matter, for he Superintendent of the was an extraordinary man. Eskdalemuir Observatory, If the co-ordinate chequer Scotland. It was here that he were 200 km square in plan, Born in Newcastle upon Tyne in worked on numerical methods for there would be 3200 columns the north-east of England, he was forecasting the weather, writing a on the complete map of the the youngest of seven children first draft of the book 1 which was globe. In the tropics the from Quaker parents. Following eventually to be published in weather is often foreknown, early education at Bootham’s 1922. He resigned in May 1916 so that we may say 2000 active Quaker school, York, and two and joined the Friends Ambulance columns. So that 32 x 2000 = years at Durham College of Unit in France, working alongside 64,000 computers would be Science (eventually becoming the French military ambulances, needed to race the weather University of Newcastle upon transporting wounded soldiers, for the whole globe. That is a Tyne), he studied physics at often under shell fire. Over the staggering figure. King’s College, Cambridge, next two years he refined his graduating with a first, in 1903. numerical methods and carried Perhaps in some years' time it He remained at Cambridge for out the forecast described in his may be possible to report a ten years, holding a number of 1922 book, essentially providing simplification of the process. research posts and positions in the first ‘CFD’ solution of the But in any case, the industry. It was while working as Navier-Stokes equations which organization indicated is a a chemist with the National Peat govern fluid flow. Let us read central forecast-factory for the Industry Limited, 1906 -1907, what Richardson has to say about whole globe, or for portions that he was faced with the task his computations and in particular extending to boundaries of calculating the percolation of his imaginings of a “forecast- where the weather is steady, water through peat. This is a factory”: with individual computers diffusion problem and so is specializing on the separate governed by the Laplace The Speed and Organization equations. Let us hope for equation, but the difficulty he of Computing 1 their sakes that they are found was that the boundary of “It took me the best part of six moved on from time to time the region had a complex weeks to draw up the to new operations. topography, meaning that exact computing forms and to work solutions could not be found. In out the new distribution in After so much hard reasoning, anticipation of his later work in two vertical columns for the may one play with a fantasy ? the numerical modelling of first time. My office was a Imagine a large hall like a weather, he based his solution on heap of hay in a cold rest theatre, except that the circles a finite difference methodology. billet. With practice the work and galleries go right round Following publication of his of an average computer might through the space usually methodology 2 he submitted it as go perhaps ten times faster. If occupied by the stage. The

36 bench mark january 12 m s t m p o t m t s d r n i l o r e o e t u A t A t r c t w n i e h a o o e e h h h e o e t q a u f i e f n p

u a e a s a s v l t a g g f e

e e e i

m c i u l e o l p t l t t a f s l i l s e n p g p

d a i h

i e c a l h h o t a

p n s o n o s m a t l y s r

. h e i i t r

e n

r e e r

i a t a i r t n

n g n c " r a t n F q o o b l m y i t a

n i h t

e o l o l l o t n

s l o a h r h N

e a

a u p f o p i i r g e a ; , o m o a c

n a s

d i n

e e a d n r m a i u o a

g t m r h e

h E s f m c

. w

p l c h c

e p t

s o r r

h r c s n i a w l e i a m o T i t h . i t i t . i r s o i

n o u

h o n t

s n r

g i s s h i i e t . h o i e E I c i

t g n u e

n m

t a

e n

g h t g s l s s

t O

c a t e r a t a e a s

a t p i r i e h

h e o h

d h c t s n p n g

c r a o e n c n

n t

n w h v u a r

e h p

a i e h o t u

n o o i

f o r d n a e e d a t n t r e r e s r m e

. l

f o t s f m h

s t r e

r d

a p l n

a e r " h

I o i a r u

t i o S r t u c

e b t n t s o r e

t a u a c e p r k

a h a n o o f o e h e

u e h p

d e h

s s r r n m i

u d p l e d t s u d m f n e s

t n h e o p f i r

k h a a

o d

s t

s j

i s

d i t f a e t o w

e p t m a g . b r

t i i s n h f s o h c

t l s e h e e c r h

f r e r l N a l y i o

h d

t o

e a e u

o s r r e d

e o s e t a ,

c r h a a

r u c o u

n y n i a h n b

g i

c i

n c p t b t n l e p t h r b s

g m l n t l t a e a h s i h e e t

e c

y a u

c i

a e

y a w t t n

h t e p . l

z t

e a r a t h

e h i p i l t h s e o t T n i g o l r t n o , e t u

e o i e h n t h i

o r o d s s r l a e k u e e a t f y n d s s , r i a t t i I s c M t t r p c w p b F l o a t B r w c I p t s s n i n h h t r e o u u o o o o o

g n n u e f u r

o a e h s

e l m a e e o

r l o

m m n u h h y a t e l t e m e t m n r a n i s p

r y h m

g d

h r c

e t u i p r s a s i p p e s t r s

n n i

a h

n i a r e

u e e h m h i e t m

h s d u s .

a u u e n e d a l i

s s e i n

c g o e l o e n t a T p s n t t s r r e t i i v

h a t n g h

t g r i i e u s e e b s e

n r h t o d o a e m o n t a t i

c i e a e e d h s s a s e n a e i e o i i r n n

r a n g n c t p n e n

i r c

u c d

, b a s

d r r n c ,

t i

s o

d a t

e h

e t n e c

c m a

o o t f

i a f h

a c h i o l f . c a n t c h h

a s a n m c u

l l l

d n i s e o b t a

o t l f r e l

u a t

r s d t o e

r t

r e

e d u

r e

m p t h s r a p n t w i l c u h t i w c

r f

x p e n k a

f n

e d o h r e t y a

t a i m e s o p a

o s t r o i a g r i s i i

e m e

r s w o

l f n

i o

r p i e v d r v r l t b

n c i e o s

t s r e n

i b n t g s c i s r r p e i h e o p o

u b t e n g n r m l y

h i a l . u

e m l l o a o m m i w a

n a e t

t g i l e d k e a i m l s s a e s h n h t f

m n

l i

x e e

s e i

c c

d g r n a e y b e o o q s a i t t

a . n o

h n

n p i r h

r h t

e t r f u o e n c b c t d o c i f a t , h g o e

e t e n i h

s h u i f e i u g a n

e u

w e e

. e

i g u i n a t s

a a s

t b g d n g t n t d g B t u l e h o

p n i t h i l l

h i e n

u d r u r d o a e t n o g e o o s a e e

e t e e n b r

n . a e b f n l r h e - d e d e y e . r m f B N a d G w R D h ‘ T f t t m a a f b t b l o I o c i n a a r h h i h l h j e i u r d n u u b f o u n o g e e e c e t a i o

e e o e

l t i m e m i a h r i t s r r u m r o a s a t t e a n l u

m w i

k u

a n d t p r r n w b i l s a o i g i b p n l h n e i r y s e g r o e e e g n a t i l n c e f v

d . , u e n e

a e a h m t d h g

” n i a

i o

t i a s p s a r c h f t s s g a y m g c n

i t t y

o a e . f a a o t e i i r r l a i i r , f t e

m n g

s , r e n e t r

n e

n o t I r m a h m l a

r a i ’ a o c m h s s

c a c g

r p r

e t p u s

t h m u s w i

o a w e t p a e h m a h

l u a i a c r d l p l a e t l f v n r y t a

u u

a e i n

r l e r a i l a d m r e d e s t i

e s k e t y e t s n a t g t o e e d

h y o i n

i i

i a x h l n l e e i . c n c e a v a e s o r n

o d r n t

r a i . l h n d s p o e i t g I

s n h

s f g a s

u i s l n

s h l s

r n t

e F t e f o

s t c o o ,

p k i -

b p a l a h

e r e e . n

i u p t d n u n c h a V q

a e e t v y

i h

m n

T l

e r i p n r l

d i n n

c u w o a s u i o t e y s b b

l h e t t s r t , n h h t c e p e i o

e n h u d s

h e a e . o e h a r e o e f u e

s i e n e t

e t i e c s c n u n d O n t o c

o n o , i l h r e a i

u c w c m r a c t s ,

s i g l e r f

u o e e s

e i l t l i h e i t

n a i

e q h p ,

a a i n d

. h r t m

o t b g r t

r a a e s h u s n r

e e

m o i

t a o w o n n w i i d t

n r d w v d h v d o i k p h e g a s e e e f i u l j : s r c a

, s

i t h a n t e u a r y 1 2 3 7 icons of CfD 3 8 icons of CfD b e n c h [ [ [ [ [ t s v s r R I f a s n m o o n [ R s m w W r t m R A M A o t t F O R i c l s a t n h a R N t R i c m n n a n 6 5 4 3 2 1 e u a o o h h e h h t t c o e r o o

d u i a f u u i f i e a i i e c i e a r f r ] ] ] ] ] ] a c

h c c t c c t k s t e h a e c r r

e e u r e a e r e l

m r f a g m d e d d a r k e t m i v v f L r W e b

b h h

h h h t n h e t t a r e i o o

r s a s a c e t M e t d L R R w P L F H w R 1

c i e e n r e i

a e e k e h A M i a u i a a a a a y t c c p n n t r t u i e h m n s e y

c e o r a l l s r e i i i . r f

. r e c w m c e i u u o a i o r i e - o

c c w i c a e r r r r r e h

n l i n t

o t i i j t r i w s i z t r

e t i l c a

n e g i r e R t d d d d d q d g n

h h i n h c n t P t t a r m

w d b o h o l

h o f t c u d o i i

, s t n w h h i

i n n o t i t o n i i t a n o e

s i a s s s a s s t a u

n i h e c

n h b t M d i a

a c d n u f u t e u

h e n p s . w c t

t , l b e u

o o o o o a e

e l r r . r t t n M c

o g n h

J e e . l a s h l t i

t o o w t F l n e

l a s d d d t s a g i

t o n

P e O n

e . t o e u e R n n n n n i i e i r t o 1 e a n n / h s d - m t

r c h

” C , H t o e o n c n c

s s g s i e t

y e r

d n r

s d g p n

c h y c r

r t i a

’

’ r b s o o n o o f 9 e a

e g a p h 2 n s s e c

n i a d s

c o i s

n r u r e a a f “

s h e t

C i s i

a t c u R i L p 1 p

n n n c e h w e

1 n 0 i x h ,

m e R h e o i h l s p h c

t t u p s p t l P

s y c R c a s e

T p m , o . p

o g

2 o a h t i c j f c 0 U r d e 9 m a y r o a

e i y t n u i t l p a n L L L a t o n a r ‘ e e m a r o l l

c i s y 1

e l e n s u n n o h g h a 4

u s

o d l a s c r i

e i . d o h n n r t t a l e u g

i c y c c h , g

t f l

F F F 9 n

e d r i d m

t i l n t b

, n i h r i t w n r e r i

c d w

b a i a , , p i i a

c t a a H t L a s s i h

c s n , n r v o a

9 e r o

p n

c e t s f s

w s I “ e a r e i t a c

o i

t a t o 1 i 1 p e e d t a I a r r e u o l b i 4 i h a s , o r i i o u 8 F t c s c l u i . i a n u t

n i s . t R r i o e d o e n r b

o d n l 9

9 , r d w r d l l u d z

h o

e g t

r o t o e s u

i V , p i d t n

w m l

n I g s d s b

i o d n - a a s

h n n

l n g b u e 2 1 i p i . u 1 c s

o r r i y n i r

l o t o “ n m

r t s r

’

p d e t h b c b l

e l f f

h o o t n s e a 7 d 0 e a 9 o

w u t e h r S e s i h o v e H k i t

y o l s – t L f t e n g n o n C s i o e

r a y f i p , e p , /

2 l

o n

t v

p e n o d o

l e r n e

e v c m r

h ‘

n n o e o i o h e o o f .

t g c n r

t R 3 i b p e “ p n “ 2

o a r n p p w c . i d a t s

e n c r o d h b s w

i t i

u f m d n t r e i p 0

v b h M i e o r l T s e T , n n t

o l g h s c a a l n

r f ’ i s

c s e w a , e

i u l i a w s e g e t M v i , p o t . e h n h s f x i t e i

o e “ k m h e m g e d

r l c i h i

u s

m s t e

e w h o e n e s d v s i t p 5 h a e e d e n o

n g m W I

i d R t F t a n

a a m y n n , n

s e c e t t i y

t i

p 0 e m t r t

’

n s a e h s

o A r s h t s d a . ’ r r

b l t y h t s t g

a t e i t

/ y n r

b x n , s

p i s o e e

P h n x

a H e o a e F y F a a l n t h e n b t R

c h a i

s i f p r e n o s o t i e

s t n n t o i r , a c e e e t n i e o n u i s - h

i r e r c t r

o o s g d y 1 s f r e o g e – ; d i n h t e r r . e c s 9 . x c

e , r a n l

x L

i a 4 e d i r C m p x a n t s d 8

a x t r o t

a i a s , e t v t : s a l

p o i

t i i l d

c “

o W . e e p g n m e i N n g

c r

r s a h o a s a t e o a ” r i / a s n

a o i t T t

t P o t e b c d u e n h

a n

h w y

e f

m o r h b r u

_ k n y J e t n 1 H t o a f i t t t y f T i I m i m r c I L F m c a c T m i w e s w h R f i H w o t o n i y e 0 l

n n n n t m n , o s

e o i h h h r i u n e c

l e o o e o r

n t h n r

n o 9 f o i n n u t d

y o o e 6 e

M n u

h r c t i s a a e m e a c w t i s

e e e c r t l t m n n d p

e e c

1 t 1 p o i o t 4 m

m d

_ l n b b m e b h w o u t

h t c k h t s t l o G i d o s

o h e t w

a m D e d t

e r a n 1

a d a 9 9 a t h e o h

8 c a h r n m e e o h i e u a e p i R r n g s l t x r w r e e e L e a a e

n s y l n

5 y c o r , a s d r o 4 2 r i e s o

t o n

” a i

r y e r e l 1 p s

l o o i u b

i y . r

e l e

v l

h r t a e s w d _ e p g d u o c 1 c n e i o

, i 3 9 w d f d i

i d S

i i .

n m 9 e n r e h t n c

s u c b p c o u

o 0 n

n h e w c t i a d o 4 s

e s t f x l , i i P u t ,

e 2 f i

u h r c t e a r 3 f u F i

u , h r

4 o n h a t a e f t s

l l

t , h

i o

a u i

r , o r m h . e f i 6

i o a l

t t o d o ? i a p f t – o

1 h l l w

e m i s 5 t l a n / u t d r e s n

t a o ” C r y

u e m i l f i t r p a f f l h S L i ” f

g i n o

m f l a i r l o u d

r s

d o c p s u h i

r l

. r c

1 , e u

n o

b e o r h p r r k c o a o

o o e , i

o h

i h 1 n c m

o y a d w t m

n b s m 2

s o a b

o s i e 7 T s P s s

f s r r

n i , p a n n f t n S h l w

i o l i

c u 9 f i r s c

o s d

t l i

h l n l r 6 h t m n

u r s b

o o a r e t

e a i y l

e o i u g

s i e t h t h J t s

a R t h r h n t w c m s 2

o e

m i i , w t s a

l m u s t h r e d n s y t o a n l t l a s g d i r l

v e n

h e o n e e

t e o y . d e

e i n

n s 6 e

a s

e a n c p – s r

P o a e t h a n

w e n

f a s e e i t n i t

o m

a t e e g x T n

t y

_ i ; . r e m n t n i . o h s e p m s

h w h l r e r

s i y t n d h

n a i r t

e u

h t a d a d a 1 . l c e ” e s e o r R e

h , . m a e c i

f o

p b e r

e i t s

a n e n

t s

a m n e o l r r e l w / c e a t

, e d h a x H o s f

e e n e f

c H L h l

i c

g o e a p t d m n l

n o

. u o t a r i R

r t o s l

C r w w y

i p y w s , o o h o h s

c e

l P h b r e h t i f s s

y r e l c a o .

. m o i t n s n o d g m i J

d e e k

a h i r e e a o

n h w

n e e a

n a c

h i h e h h

e e t u

r i S w i R o c r w i c p t c e y m p m c n a o

t p s p

e h h l f t n

u g e f i . e r o

e e l

h r i i t e l , v o o s s h o f i c l a i ”

f d

l u c c y e i

t i n s

e i e o a

o a e a c t

e n

i t b a c n m f , l a _ i f r F c b y n i e l f a c

s ,

d h h h

e r s , m

i r s i l y o v r . t r r . r s . t l

N r i o h s t t p n r

e t e c e o t

c s t

i s u a

e g e e y J s d

i y i e

h i t

e r e a a e o t m a L c r S o

d f s . a a u r e e c W l h i a

s , e n n b i

f t i h g l t a

t a v s d s o r s t i m s t d n

H e

l n d g o

o d M i

s p , p s e t c

e e e i , o a b i h w i o a i

u o n i b n

a c p s P c

h a s

n e a

e n f i u g e d

t e w o d s e m a l n u i l n . n

d o d l e n e d 5 a e n 5

n s l i s s a r a o

a e

b n n r o U n f s

t L

t o y d

0 i l f 0 s o d e e s 5 s d t r d d e o d

o y t i o n t n

n . o t i t t

s a f ’ o f , – t p s s h e n a f i , . e

y v r

d o p

d o S e e A f r h o e l r x

o o n s y n r c l . i g s n o t

, e i

A y y i c g S v l ,

a l ,

y P e e e

V , l V r r r

n . o e s p a

o a t s l A n r . l

s o r .

d r , y .

5 c C b

e 2

V AUTHOR , h t c L a l t “ w p b f o m l h v 1

e i o h o h p e e r f t n B r o i 0 m r o i e i

l e i u p r w t a t . s O i n o : d i d

t w h l s

@ s g n 2 t a e p t k 2 d p i e

d 2 i

3 s L i p

, 3 l f e l n a f - n

w s e

o w 6 o

F e

o r 8 v

y w o l 3 a a a o , r r

y o a

h s e f INFOR

h o t e 0 y n c – s f p h

l i d

i v

t a

o o w 7 i

n p I c r i a 2 R h r i d p c n

n f o l

l L

4 – o o i e s h .

2 a s a g

t c 2 n c e ‘

0 ‘

n 9 o

l g h 3 h

h f MATI o I 0

l d a h i . d c l i 9 N n 5

u a i f m

a 0

c i o a t v

e f C 7 u c

b r m t – h v 7 f 6 n i v d

” i . m

e y

s F d e a

e e 6 3

a s , r c

D s ON

o e n e e

o P i 6

o A e l r r l n n o

f d e 1 i n i

e c

n A s

t c t c t f t v

. C o

i i t s n a

c e a t s o i e “ l s h s n l u F o y s l l r e

m e l

P l W i

D o d a y ” e n m o s

L a r l

c q w

p ’

t y

r c e i e 1 , R o i s r t u w n u

a i a

i h d

e 9 t f s a b I t c t s t . r v y h t i h t i 2 e e

t u h t o i r i , S i e e o i i s r 2

l l t . o m i r l s a w r s n n

l o ’ n

i s n g s .

n n ,

o l d e s f