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Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice

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Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice 27 Nils Petter Gleditsch Editor Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice Volume 27 Series Editor Hans Günter Brauch, Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS), Mosbach, Germany More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15230 http://www.afes-press-books.de/html/PAHSEP.htm http://www.afes-press-books.de/html/PAHSEP_LewisFryRichardson.htm Nils Petter Gleditsch Editor Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences Editor Nils Petter Gleditsch Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Oslo, Norway Acknowledgement: The photograph on the internal title page was taken from the English version of Wikipedia.en, at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson. ISSN 2509-5579 ISSN 2509-5587 (electronic) Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice ISBN 978-3-030-31588-7 ISBN 978-3-030-31589-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31589-4 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2020. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adap- tation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi- cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Copyediting: PD Dr. Hans Günter Brauch, AFES-PRESS e.V., Mosbach, Germany This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Contents 1 Lewis Fry Richardson – A Pioneer Not Forgotten ............. 1 Nils Petter Gleditsch 2 Lewis Fry Richardson: A Personal Narrative ................. 13 Dina A. Zinnes 3 The Influence of the Richardson Arms Race Model ............ 25 Ron P. Smith 4 What Richardson Got Right (and Wrong) About Arms Races and War ........................................ 35 Paul F. Diehl 5 Richardson and the Study of Dynamic Conflict Processes ........ 45 Kelly M. Kadera, Mark Crescenzi and Dina A. Zinnes 6 Back to the Future: Richardson’s Multilateral Arms Race Model ........................................... 57 Michael D. Ward 7 From Hand-Counting to GIS: Richardson in the Information Age ....................................... 73 Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Nils B. Weidmann 8 Weather, War, and Chaos: Richardson’s Encounter with Molecules and Nations .............................. 87 Jürgen Scheffran 9 When Lanchester Met Richardson: The Interaction of Warfare with Psychology .............................. 101 Niall MacKay 10 On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars ............. 113 Aaron Clauset v vi Contents 11 The Decline of War Since 1950: New Evidence ................ 129 Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel Richardson’s Life and Work ................................... 143 About the Editor Nils Petter Gleditsch ........................... 147 Chapter 1 Lewis Fry Richardson – A Pioneer Not Forgotten Nils Petter Gleditsch Abstract Lewis F Richardson, a physicist by training, remains a towering presence in two academic subjects, meteorology and peace research. Prizes are named for him in both fields. This chapter introduces a collection of articles assessing Richardson’s legacy and his enduring influence in the social sciences. It reviews his citations as an indication of the range of his influence and discusses his impact in five areas of social science: the study of arms races, data collection on deadly quarrels, the stability of the long peace, the role of geography in conflict, and the role of mathematics in peace studies. It also includes a brief discussion of the conscience of a scholar with regard to preparations for war. 1.1 His Life and Work Lewis F Richardson was trained as a physicist, but gained his fame first in mete- orology and then in the study of conflict. Although he never gained employment at a leading university, his work in meteorology was widely respected by his con- temporaries and has remained among the foundations of the field. His work on conflict was seen as more unorthodox. Certainly, his formal models and quantitative empirics were well ahead of the curve in the discipline of international relations in his lifetime. It was not until seven years after his death that his two major volumes on conflict found a publisher (Richardson, 1960a, b). Since then, Richardson has been honored in various ways. In 1972, British Prime Minister Edward Heath opened a new wing of the Headquarters Building of the My work on this volume was supported by the Gløbius fund and by the Conflict trends project (#402561). Most of the chapters were first presented to two sessions on Richardson at the 59th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, 4–7 April 2018. I am grateful to Håvard Hegre, Gerald Schneider, and the contributors to this volume for comments on my introduction. © The Author(s) 2020 1 N. P. Gleditsch (ed.), Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences, Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice 27, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31589-4_1 2 N. P. Gleditsch Meteorological Office named the Richardson Wing.1 The Department of Mathematics at the University of York has sponsored a Lewis F Richardson lecture series since 2015.2 Unusually, scientific prizes are named for him in both his main fields. In 1960, the Royal Meteorological Society established the annual LF Richardson Prize for meritorious papers by young authors in one of the journals of the society.3 Since 1997, The European Geosciences Union has awarded the Lewis Fry Richardson Medal for ‘exceptional contributions to nonlinear geophysics in general’.4 And from 2001, scholars who have spent most of their academic life in Europe and who have made exemplary scholarly contributions to the scientific study of militarized conflict, have been honored with the Lewis F Richardson Lifetime Award, with Michael Nicholson as the first recipient.5 As I have experi- enced on a couple of occasions, if a conflict researcher gets an opportunity to speak to a group of meteorologists (say on the topic of climate change and conflict), a favorable mood can be generated by an early reference to Richardson. Richardson was in many ways a loner. Although he carried out an extensive correspondence and was receptive to criticism of his own work – in fact, his two major volumes contain a number of fictional dialogues with his critics – he gen- erally worked without assistants, and most of his work is single-authored. He often worked under difficult conditions. The extreme case is his work on meteorology while serving as an ambulance driver in France in World War I. In 1917, during the battle of Champagne, he sent his working copy of the manuscript on weather prediction ‘to the rear, where it became lost, only to be re-discovered some months later, under a heap of coal’ (Richardson, 1922: ix). Of course, as befitting a scholar of his generation, he relied very heavily on his wife Dorothy not just for moral support but in the practical work of carrying out experiments and in copy-editing.6 As is evident from the timeline in the Appendix, Richardson spent most of his professional life in positions where he either worked on practical problems or taught science at the basic level, notably at Paisley Technical College (1929–40). Apparently, Richardson was not the world’s best teacher, but he is described as ‘conscientious and caring’ (Ashford, 1985: 150f). Much of his research was carried out in his spare time. It was only after retirement, for the last 13 years of his life, that he was able to devote himself full-time to research. Richardson’s publications in meteorology, notably Weather Prediction by Numerical Process (Richardson, 1922) and a later article on atmospheric diffusion (Richardson, 1926), remain his most frequently cited items. The 1926 article is recorded with well over 1000 citations on Web of Science, including 42 citations in 1Ashford (1985: 246ff). 2www.york.ac.uk/maths/events/lfr/. 3Ashford (1985: 245), www.rmets.org/our-activities/awards/l-f-richardson-prize. 4www.egu.eu/awards-medals/lewis-fry-richardson/. 5http://ksgleditsch.com/richardson_award.html. 6Ashford (1985: 239f). 1 Lewis Fry Richardson – A Pioneer Not Forgotten 3 the first seven months of 2018!7 Among his social science writings, his two posthumously published books top the list, with Arms and Insecurity (Richardson, 1960a) a little ahead of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (1960b). Both of these books continue to be cited to this day, although not at the level of his 1926 article.
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