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The Downward Spiral Syria’S Limited Response to the Economic Crisis

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The Downward Spiral Syria’S Limited Response to the Economic Crisis THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL SYRIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS 9 May 2021 1 Contents Acknowledgements 1 Key points 1 Introduction 2 External influences on Syria’s economy 3 Part I: The Syrian economy 4 Factors contributing to economic collapse 4 Monetary policy during the Syrian conflict 6 Economic outcomes: The double deficit 9 Exchange rate trends and inflation 10 Quantitative analysis 11 Data 11 Methodology 11 Part II: The effect of currency depreciation on inflation 13 Product and market-level analysis 15 Future scenarios 15 Part III: Policy scenarios 19 Response 1 19 Monetary contraction to curb inflation 19 Response 2 20 Import substitution boosting local economic growth and productivity 20 Response 3 21 Removal of sanctions, increased humanitarian aid and financial assistance 21 Conclusions 22 Appendix 24 MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS 0 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS HAT would like to acknowledge the work of monetary policy expert, Professor Andrea Presbitero who led this paper along with the HAT Syria team. KEY POINTS A combination of internal (protracted conflict, poor monetary policy, corruption) and external (sanctions, Lebanese financial crisis, COVID-19) factors are contributing to an ongoing economic crisis within Syria. The Syrian government and its Central Bank are extremely constrained in their abilities to curtail the current currency depreciation, and without a major change in the status quo, current trends will continue. Syrian pound depreciation-driven price increases outpace inflationary wage growth; according to our price modelling, a 10% increase in SYP deprecation produces an immediate 4% increase in food prices and 2% increase in wages. According to the scenarios posted in this report, the Syrian pound could depreciate as much as 72% in 2021. Additionally, there may be a further 88% increase in food prices, and 38% decline in household affordability. Due to the double deficit faced by the Syrian government (budget deficit coupled with a large current account deficit), there is virtually no policy instrument which could be used to counter the economic trend, without significant external support. The budget deficit coupled with a growing current account deficit points to a likely scenario that Syria will engage in expanding the money supply in order to cover the financial gap, which will consequently spur on further depreciation and devaluation. MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS > 1 INTRODUCTION The ongoing economic crisis in Syria is having ‘pass-through’ coefficients (the effect of a profoundly negative impact on the inflation on prices). To complement this, a humanitarian situation, particularly in scenario analysis shows the extent to which relation to increasing levels of extreme food prices could increase (and consumer poverty, food insecurity and poor access to purchasing power could decline) based on livelihoods. Since the start of the conflict, the the pressures on the exchange rate coming Syrian pound has lost over 98% of its value – from the fiscal and current account deficits, most concerning is that 30% of this loss came coupled with the lack of sufficient during the first quarter of 2021, showing international reserves. quickening deterioration rather than development. The consequences the crisis Given the dramatic humanitarian crisis and have led to widespread inflation, resource the unfolding of an economic and financial scarcity, and growing unaffordability among crisis, the most effective, yet unlikely policy Syria’s population, the majority of whom are intervention highlighted is the mobilization barely able to afford basic goods and services. of humanitarian and financial aid coupled with a lift of international sanctions to cope Many organizations are now asking how the with worsening food insecurity. economic collapse will continue to evolve Domestically, there is little that can be done and what may be expected in the near future. to change the current trend. The dramatic Moving from the most recent developments, collapse in government revenue and the and taking into account high levels of reduction in foreign financial inflows uncertainty and the limited available worsened by a number of negative external information and statistics on key economic shocks (the decline in remittances, the effect indicators, this paper discusses how the crisis of sanctions, the Lebanese financial crisis and came about, the current state of play, and COVID-19) leave little room for a further potential policy options available to the contraction of fiscal policy, which would be Syrian government. needed to reduce the pressure on the exchange rate and stabilize the economy and To be able to anchor the discussion on some little to no room for budgetary expansion, evidence, the analysis uses granular market- needed to boost local economic and level price data to gauge the sensitivity of humanitarian needs. wages and food prices to changes in the exchange rate. These are based on estimated MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS > 2 EXTERNAL INFLUENCES ON Lebanese financial systems. This not only SYRIA’S ECONOMY prevented access to financial capital used for imports, it also increased inflation as Economic sanctions imposed by the EU and importers were hit. Then, at the end of the US targeted the trade and financial September 2019 the Syrian Central Bank sectors and have decimated Syria’s already regulated the list of imported priority weakened export markets, further widening products (mainly food and medicine) that it the current account deficit. Moreover, permitted banks to finance.3 These products sanctions imposed since 2011 had large could be bought using the hard currency held effect on the deteriorating conditions in by the banks. Moreover, the economic crisis Syria, as they contributed to a decline in in Lebanon and the capital controls imposed economic growth, worsening health at the end of 2020 reduced the flow of outcomes, and limited food security.1 The remittances sent by Syrians living and latest sanctions – including the Caesar Act of working in Lebanon.4 In addition, the June 2020 – have also severely constrained Lebanese crisis is a negative demand shock efforts to rebuild while curtailing the oil for Syria, as external demand collapsed. trade, aggravating the humanitarian crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the Lebanon’s financial crisis has destroyed the fragility of the public health system, has domestic financial system. Syria is highly significantly decreased prospects for dependent on the Lebanese banking and economic growth as the secondary impact of financial sectors; an estimated $30 billion of preventative measures of lockdown take Syrian owned financial assets are tied and hold. Restrictions are also affecting domestic now frozen in Lebanese bank accounts.2 This demand and remittances as foreign workers has accelerated the devaluation of the Syrian cannot move and consequently have lost pound – as Syrians lost access to their foreign employment. This is a major contributing currency deposited in the Lebanese banking factor, as it is estimated that remittances system, this decreased the supply of foreign inflows were cut by as much as 50% due to exchange accessible to Syria, and froze COVID-19 precautionary measures affecting accounts of many Syrian traders who used Syrian’s working abroad. 1 UCL Global Governance Institute, An Inhumane Response The Humanitarian Consequences of Sanctions: A Case Study of Syria, January 2018 2 The Syrian Observer, Syrian Assets in Lebanon in Danger, October 2019. 3 Daher, J., Wartime and Post-Conflict in Syria, The Deep Roots of the Depreciation of the Syrian Pound, December 2019. 4 Middle East Journal, How is the crisis in Lebanon impacting Syria’s economy?, August 2020 MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIA’S LIMITED RESPONSE TO THE ECONOMIC CRISIS > 3 PART I: THE SYRIAN ECONOMY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING economy’s deterioration. Sanctions included trade and financial restrictions, making it TO ECONOMIC COLLAPSE increasingly difficult to import agricultural, Syria’s economy has been battered by over a industrial, and energy-related inputs for decade of protracted conflict, capital and production and infrastructural maintenance. human flight. Widespread conflict has led to This has also severely impacted the the destruction of vital economic manufacturing and agricultural sectors and infrastructure, with current estimates aided the collapse of local productive valuing conflict-inflicted damage at capacity, further leading to a decline in (US)$117.7 billion and accumulated losses of exports. Since 2016, Syria’s trade deficit has $442.2 billion.5 The sheer number of people widened from $4 million in 2016 to $5.7 displaced by the conflict – 5.6 million billion in 2019.9 Moreover, ESCWA refugees and 6.1 million internally displaced estimates that Syria's economic losses from – has disrupted the productive capacity of the conflict exceeded $442 billion by the end the economy by forcing the abandonment of of 2019.10 livelihoods and physical capital, encouraging brain drain and halting human capital Several interrelated factors have also development, in addition to the obvious affected the money supply. Since 2011, a humanitarian cost.6 The country’s capacity number of revenue-generating industries for self-sufficiency is severely diminished, to that were a key source for stockpiling of the point where it is
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