SYRIA COUNTRY OFFICE MARKET PRICE WATCH BULLETIN July 2020 ISSUE 68 Picture @ WFP/Hussam Al Saleh @WFP/Jessica Lawson Highlights Standard Food Basket Figure 1: Food basket cost and changes, SYP ○ The national average price of a stand- The national average price of a standard reference 1 ard reference food basket in July 2020 food basket increased by three percent between June and July 2020, reaching SYP 86,571. The highest rate was SYP 86,571 (USD 69 at the official recorded since the start of the crisis. The national av- exchange rate 1,250/USD), increasing by erage food basket price was 131 percent higher than three percent compared to June 2020. that of January 2020 and was 251 percent higher com- The reference food basket price in- pared to July 2019 (Figure 1). creased by 251 percent since July 2019. Compared to June 2020, July food basket prices have ○ The national average ToT between been relatively constant due to the arrival of the coun- wheat flour and daily non-skilled wage try’s main agricultural harvest and the strengthening labour, a proxy indicator for purchasing of the informal exchange rate. power, reached its lowest level since While seven governorates reported an increasing aver- Chart 1: National min., max. and average food basket cost, SYP monitoring began (2014). In July 2020 a age reference food basket price in July 2020, five gov- daily non-skilled wage could afford only ernorates reported a decreasing average reference 3.91kgs of wheat flour compared to food basket and two governorates reported no change 8.83kgs in July 2019. compared to June 2020. ○ Increased fodder prices caused the The highest month-on-month (m-o-m) increase report- price of meat to increase. M-o-m, ed was in Lattakia (up 20 percent) reaching SYP minced beef increased by ten percent 92,504, followed by Idleb (up 16 percent) reaching SYP reaching SYP 11,399/kg and whole 124,769. Lattakia’s increase is led by higher import cleaned chicken increased by 34 percent costs on trade into Syria, while the increase in Idleb’s reaching SYP 3,144/kg. basket is linked to the continuous decrease in the bread bundle size. ○ The Syrian pound informal exchange Compared to last year, the price of the reference food Map 1: Location of markets monitored by WFP rate strengthened by 11 percent m-o-m basket has increased across all 14 governorates. Idleb in July reaching a monthly average of recorded the highest increase (up 420 percent), fol- SYP 2,262/USD. Both the UN operational lowed by Rural Damascus (up 290 percent). rate and the official exchange rate re- The gap between the highest and lowest average food mained unchanged at SYP 1,250/USD. basket price widened by 56 percent from SYP 31,188 ○ For further information, please con- in June 2020 to SYP 48,661 in July 2020 (Chart 1). The tact: gap has also widened by 740 percent between July Jan Michiels at 2019 and July 2020. Highlighting worsening trade rela- [email protected] tions across Syria as well as being affected by the dif- Pakinam Moussa at ferent COVID-19 preventive measures imposed by the [email protected] different administrative entities across Syria. 1. The standard food basket is a group of essential food commodities. In Syria, the food basket is set at a group of dry goods providing 1,930 kcal a day for a family of five during a month. The basket 1 includes 37 kg bread, 19 kg rice, 19 kg lentils, 5 kg of sugar, and 7 litres of vegetable oil Syria’s economic situation Overview Since October 2019, food and non-food items’ prices have been increasing in Syria because of the Lebanese financial crisis and its impact on the informal ex- change rate in Syria. The outbreak of Covid-19 in March 2020 and its related government preventive measures added to the already worsening economic situa- tion and caused prices to increase even further since March 2020. In June 2020, the economy aggravated as a result of the political tensions and the uncertainty accompanied by the intensification of unilateral coercive measures (such as sanctions). There was high volatility in the informal exchange rate, and the average monthly rate jumped from SYP 1,600/USD in May 2020 to SYP 2,505/USD in June 2020, causing wholesalers to reduce their food supply on Syrian markets and caused some retailers to momentarily close their shops, while prices of all commodities (food and non-food items) have increased, especially of imported items. Table 1: Informal market exchange rate, 1 USD to SYP Informal exchange rate % change % change Governorate July 2020 When measuring exchange rates, there are two quotations. The first is the (m-o-m) (y-o-y) direct quotation where the US dollar is the base of measuring the change in Aleppo 2,263 9% -74% exchange rate against the local currency. The second one is the indirect quo- Al-Hasakeh 2,301 3% -74% tation where the local currency is the base of measuring the change in the Ar-Raqqa 2,295 Bakery in Aleppo4% @ Hussam- 74%Al Saleh exchange rate against the US dollar. The change in the exchange rate used As-Sweida 2,243 12% -73% below reflects the indirect quotation (measuring how much the Syrian pound improved (appreciated) or worsened (depreciated) against the US dollar). Damascus 2,264 12% -74% Dar'a 2,243 11% -74% In July 2020, the Syrian pound appreciated by 11 percent in the informal ex- Deir-ez-Zor 2,334 18% -74% change rate market and reached SYP 2,262/USD. Compared to a year ago, the Syrian pound though has significantly depreciated by 74 percent. On the oth- Hama 2,226 13% -73% er hand, the operational UN rate and the official exchange rate have both Homs 2,225 14% -73% remained unchanged at SYP 1,250/USD compared to June 2020. However, Idleb 2,314 11% -74% both rates have lost 65 percent of their value since July 2019. Lattakia 2,234 12% -73% The highest informal exchange rate was reported in Deir-ez-Zor at SYP 2,334/ Quneitra 2,223 11% -73% USD (appreciated by 18 percent m-o-m; and depreciated by 74 percent y-o- Rural Damascus 2,267 11% -74% y), followed by Idleb at SYP 2,314/USD (appreciated by eleven percent m-o- Tartous 2,234 11% -73% m; and depreciated 74 percent y-o-y). Conversely, the lowest rates were National average 2,262 11% -74% reported in Quneitra at SYP 2,223/USD (appreciated by 11 percent m-o-m; Official rate 1,250 0% -65% and depreciated by 73 percent y-o-y), followed by Homs at SYP 2,225/USD UN operational rate 1,250 0% -65% (appreciated 14 percent m-o-m; and depreciated by 73 percent y-o-y). Key food-items Between July 2020 and June 2020, the price of main food-items increased despite the improvement in the informal exchange rate. Wheat flour increased by nine percent reaching SYP 1,028/kg, bulgur increased by ten percent reaching SYP 1,252/kg, Egyptian white rice increased by ten percent reaching SYP 1,565/ kg and red split lentils increased by six percent reaching SYP 1,335/kg. The increase in prices is also related to the Eid Al Adha (31 July-2 August) festive peri- od, leading to increased demand for most food-items. On the other hand, vegetable oil remained unchanged at SYP 2,914/litre, while sugar price decreased by five percent reaching SYP 1,264/kg. Additionally, the price of meat products have all increased as a result of fodder price increases by end of June. Fodder is mostly composed of soybean and corn which are both imported. M-o-m, the price of minced beef increased by ten percent reaching SYP 11,399/kg and whole cleaned chicken increased by 34 percent reaching SYP 3,144/kg. The price of fresh eggs have also increased by 18 percent, reaching SYP 2,825/carton of 30 eggs, and cheese increased by 24 percent, reaching SYP 3,176/kg. Chart 2: Month-on-month price evolution of main food-items, SYP Chart 3: Month-on-month price evolution of meat-related products, SYP Source: WFP Field Offices 2 Legend on regions of analysis: ‘Northwest’=Aleppo; ‘Cross-border’=Idleb & Chart 4: Retail Prices of Wheat Flour, SYP Aleppo [A’zaz, Atarib & Afrin]; ‘Coastal’=Lattakia & Tartous; ‘Northeast’=Ar- Raqqa, Al-Hasakeh & Deir-ez-Zor; ‘Middle’=Damascus, Rural Damascus, Ha- ma & Homs; ‘South’=Dar’a, As-Sweida & Quneitra. Staple cereals retail prices Wheat Flour In July 2020, the national average retail price of wheat flour throughout Syria increased by nine percent m-o-m and by 275 percent y-o-y, reaching SYP 1,028/ kg. The highest recorded wheat flour price was in Al-Hasakeh (up six percent m-o- m) reaching SYP 1,292/kg, followed by Dar’a (up 15 percent m-o-m) reaching SYP 1,176/kg - Chart 4. The lowest average wheat flour price was recorded in Ar- Raqqa at SYP 921/kg (up one percent m-o-m), followed by Rural Damascus at SYP 926/kg (up three percent m-o-m). Chart 5: Retail Prices of Rice, SYP Broken down by regions, the southern region reported the highest retail price at SYP 1,152/kg (up 12 percent m-o-m), followed by the coastal region at SYP 1,060/ kg (up 23 percent m-o-m), while the cross-border region reported the lowest retail price at SYP 964/kg (up 21 percent m-o-m), followed by northwest Syria at SYP 966/kg (up nine percent m-o-m).