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Formulation of the Lesotho Electrication Master Plan

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CRIS 2017/387289/1 FWC Beneficiaries 2013 - Lot 4 - Energy and Nuclear Safety FORMULATION OF THE LESOTHO ELECTRICATION MASTER PLAN Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) This project is funded by A project implemented by The European Union AETS Consortium DELEGATION of the EUROPEAN UNION Lesotho Formulation of the Electrification Master Plan Contract N°2017/387289/1 FWC Beneficiaries 2013 - Lot 4 - Energy and Nuclear Safety Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) 22 June 2018 Drafted by: Thyrsos Hadjicostas Dayalin Padayachy Reviewed by: Ralf Tobich The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of AETS Consortium and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union Lesotho Electrification Master Plan Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________ 4 2 INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________ 7 2.1 SCOPE OF THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN ___________________________________ 7 2.2 METHDOLOGY ____________________________________________________________ 7 3 EXISTING GRID AND SYSTEM EXPANSION PLAN___________________ 9 4 GRID ELECTRIFICATION GUIDELINES ___________________________ 13 4.1 MEDIUM VOLTAGE (MV) DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ____________________________ 13 4.1.1 HV Poles __________________________________________________________ 13 4.1.2 MV Conductor ______________________________________________________ 15 4.2 LOW VOLTAGE (LV) DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ________________________________ 18 4.2.1 LV Poles ___________________________________________________________ 18 4.2.2 LV Conductor _______________________________________________________ 19 4.2.3 Service Connection ___________________________________________________ 20 4.3 DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER ____________________________________________ 21 5 PLANNING AND DESIGN CRITERIA _______________________________ 22 5.1 PLANNING CRITERIA______________________________________________________ 22 5.1.1 Voltage limits _______________________________________________________ 22 5.1.2 Current or thermal limits ______________________________________________ 22 5.1.3 Security of supply ____________________________________________________ 22 5.2 DESIGN CRITERIA ________________________________________________________ 22 5.2.1 Voltage ____________________________________________________________ 22 5.2.2 Redundancy ________________________________________________________ 22 5.2.3 Grid technology _____________________________________________________ 22 5.3 UNIT COSTS ______________________________________________________________ 22 6 GRID ELECTRIFICATION TIME-PLAN AND COST _________________ 24 6.1 OFF-GRID BUDGET ALLOCATION __________________________________________ 24 6.2 GRID ELECTRIFICATION EAS _______________________________________________ 24 6.3 TIME-PLAN_______________________________________________________________ 25 7 FUTURE GRID PERFORMANCE SIMULATIONS ____________________ 29 7.1 LOAD FORECAST _________________________________________________________ 29 7.2 LOAD FLOW RESULTS _____________________________________________________ 31 7.2.1 Present Situation _____________________________________________________ 31 7.2.2 Year 5 _____________________________________________________________ 31 7.2.3 Year 10 ____________________________________________________________ 35 7.2.4 Year 15 ____________________________________________________________ 36 7.2.5 Year 20 ____________________________________________________________ 39 AETS Consortium – 22 June 2018 i Lesotho Electrification Master Plan Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) 8 ANNEX __________________________________________________________ 41 8.1 ANNUAL GRID ELECTRIFICATION ROLL-OUT SCHEDULE _____________________ 41 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Existing Electricity Transmission and Distribution Network. __________________________ 9 Figure 2: Future Electricity Transmission and Distribution Network ___________________________ 10 Figure 3: Attachment Heights for a 11kV Vertical Configuration ________________________________ Figure 4: Cost of Losses for a Range of Typical ACSR Conductor _____________________________ 16 Figure 5: LCC for a Range of Typical ACSR Conductor ____________________________________ 16 Figure 6: Typical Configuration of a 2-Phase System _______________________________________ 17 Figure 7: Typical Configuration of a SWER System ________________________________________ 17 Figure 8: Power Transfer Capability of 3-Phase, 2-Phase and SWER __________________________ 18 Figure 9: Circuit Diagram for Split-Phase System _________________________________________ 20 Figure 10: Annual Budget Allocation for Grid and Off-Grid _________________________________ 24 Figure 11: Existing Grid-Electrified EAs (in green) ________________________________________ 26 Figure 12: Additional Grid-Electrified EAs in 5 Years (green) _______________________________ 27 Figure 13: Additional Grid-Electrified EAs in 10 Years (brown)______________________________ 27 Figure 14: Additional Grid-Electrified EAs in 15 Years (purple) _____________________________ 28 Figure 15: Additional Grid-Electrified EAs in 20 Years (pink) _______________________________ 28 Figure 16: Present Load Flow Results __________________________________________________ 32 Figure 17: Network Extension by Year 5 (According to LEC Expansion Plan) ___________________ 33 Figure 18: Year 5 Load Flow Results ___________________________________________________ 34 Figure 19: Network Extension by Year 10 (According to LEC Expansion Plan) __________________ 35 Figure 20: Year 10 Load Flow Results __________________________________________________ 37 Figure 21: Year 15 Load Flow Results __________________________________________________ 38 Figure 22: Year 20 Load Flow Results __________________________________________________ 40 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: LEC System Expansion Plan Projects1 ___________________________________________ 11 Table 2: Cost of Wood Poles __________________________________________________________ 14 Table 3: 2-Phase and 3-Phase Clearances _______________________________________________ 15 Table 4: Clearances for ABC Conductors ________________________________________________ 19 Table 5: Comparison between 3-Phase, Dual-Phase and 1-Phase _____________________________ 20 Table 6: Distribution Transformer Sizes _________________________________________________ 21 Table 7: Unit Construction Costs ______________________________________________________ 23 Table 8: Analysis of Typical Grid Electrification Project ____________________________________ 23 Table 9: Grid Electrification Overview over 20 Years ______________________________________ 24 Table 10: Annual Grid Electrification Roll-Out Summary ___________________________________ 25 Table 11: Substation Forecast _________________________________________________________ 29 Table 12: Year 5 Thermal Violations ____________________________________________________ 33 Table 13: Year 10 Thermal Violations ___________________________________________________ 36 Table 14: Year 15 Thermal Violations ___________________________________________________ 36 Table 15: Year 20 Thermal Violations ___________________________________________________ 39 AETS Consortium – 22 June 2018 ii Lesotho Electrification Master Plan Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) List of Acronyms AAAC all aluminium alloy conductor ABC aerial bundle conductor ACSR aluminium conductor steel reinforced AETS Application Européenne de Technologies et de Services EA enumerator area EDM Electricite de Mozambique EMP Electrification Master Plan 2017 EU European Union EUD European Union Delegation GDP gross domestic product IRR internal rate of return kW kilowatt-hours kVA kilovolt-ampere LCC life-cycle cost LEC Lesotho Electricity Company LNDC Lesotho National Development Corporation LV low voltage M Lesotho Maloti (currency) MEM Ministry of Energy and Meteorology MV medium voltage MWh megawatt-hours NSDP National Strategic Development Plan SDGs sustainable development goals SWER single wire earth return TWG Technical Working Group for the EMP AETS Consortium – 22 June 2018 iii Lesotho Electrification Master Plan Grid Development Plan Report (Draft) 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report represents the prioritised 2017 – 2036 Grid Development Plan for the electrification of Lesotho. It covers a 20-year time horizon and is meant to enable systematic, predictable and equitable off-grid electricity roll-out, with a view to enhance quality of life, provide income-generating opportunities and alleviate poverty in Lesotho. The Grid Development Plan caters for all those areas of Lesotho that are economically feasible to be reached by the national power grid. It uses current LEC technical standards and pricing and takes account of the utility’s planned network expansion and extensions. Network performance simulations were conducted at 5-year intervals. A sustained annual electrification budget of M 150 million is assumed for the EMP, based on the current level of government budget allocation for this purpose. The Ministry of Energy and Meteorology (MEM) decreed that 80% of this budget – M 120 million per year – shall be allocated to grid electrification for the time being, with the balance – M 30 million per year – going towards off-grid electrification. The planning methodology was discussed and agreed with stakeholders via the Technical Working Group (TWG), to ensure alignment with current thinking and the country’s goals and needs. The EMP also takes cognisance of the country’s
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