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ANNUAL REPORT 2002 Introductory Remarks by the Governor

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ANNUAL REPORT 2002 Introductory Remarks by the Governor Ekonomski pregled NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA ANNUAL REPORT 2002 Introductory Remarks by the Governor he National Bank of Serbia throughout 2002 continued to implement Tmeasures with the aim of strengthening macroeconomic stability, as a fundamental precondition for economic growth and the increase of citizens' living standard. The main objectives of our endeavors in the preceding year were as follows: (1) further lowering of the inflation rate, (2) creation of conditions for international recognition of the dinar convertibility, (3) preparations for an efficient transfer of payment transactions to banks, and (4) additional strengthening of bank supervision. Throughout the previous year, the stability of the dinar rate was preserved, together with the growth of foreign reserves. The NBS foreign exchange reserves reached USD 2.28 billion on 31 December 2002, which is nearly double the amount from December 2001. By 31 May 2003 the total foreign reserves of Serbia (including commercial banks' reserves) amounted to USD 3.3 billion, seven times more than in October 2002, when the program of monetary reforms was initiated. Along with the convertibility of national currency a continuous rise in foreign reserves in three successive years has been recorded in Serbia for the first time in 39 years. With the passing of the new, very liberal Foreign Exchange Law, the last preconditions for international recognition of the dinar convertibility have been met. Thus, the IMF acknowledged the convertibility of the dinar in all external current transactions on 15 May 2002, whereby the exchange of the dinar for all world currencies became possible for the first time since 1931. Today, the dinar is found on the exchange rate lists of banks in Great Britain, Germany, Austria, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite a considerable rise in prices of electric energy and other public services, the inflation rate last year was reduced to 14.8% (from 40% in 2001), with core inflation of only 6%. The lowering of the inflation rate and the maintaining of stability of the dinar exchange rate made the general decrease of interest rates possible, so that the discount rate, as a benchmark interest rate, fell from 11% in January to 9.5% in June 2002, and in January 2003 to 9%. The average weighted interest rates of banks at annual level dropped from 33% in January to 19% in December 2002. In addition, the required reserve ratio was cut from 24.5% to 20%, which left greater room to banks for lending on more favorable terms. In 2002 banks granted over EUR 700 million in credits to enterprises and households (EUR 200 million of consumer credits and EUR 500 million of investment credits). The process of remonetization went on as the result of confidence in domestic currency: the real money supply rose from the dinar equivalent of USD 900 million in January to almost USD 2 billion in December 2002. The growth of household savings, an equally reliable indicator of citizens' confidence in the domestic banking sector, more than tripled from January 2002 exceeding USD 1 billion in mid-May 2003. Intensive bank supervision and rising financial discipline of the banking sector continued in 2002. After the liquidation of four greatly insolvent state-owned banks carried out at the beginning of 2002 with minimal costs, conditions were created for the expansion of sound banks, which took over office space and secured new jobs in this sector. The result of this difficult operation has been a sound and efficient banking sector, which now employs, in much better and safer conditions, more workers than before the liquidation of insolvent state-owned banks. The regulatory framework for banks has been changed by imposing stricter minimal requirements for credit rating together with more precise sanctions against banks that do not meet the said requirements. In addition, activities continued on introducing a modern system of bank supervision in compliance with the Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision of the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, which provide for efficient identification and estimate of risks in banks' operations together with a timely undertaking of corrective measures. From January to May 2002 one of the technically most complex operations in the history of the National Bank was also carried out: exchange of the EU currencies that ceased to be valid for the euro. In those five months, EUR 4.2 billion was exchanged, which meant transporting over 20 million of the new European currency through Serbia every day. Thanks to careful planning and excellent cooperation with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Army, the entire operation was carried out without any incident. One of the most important projects the Serbian central bank prepared in the course of 2002 and realized successfully at the beginning of 2003 was the transfer of payment operations in commercial banks. The NBS introduced a modern system for the settlement of large (RTGS) and small payments (clearing), which in the first five months allowed overall transactions worth around DIN 2,516 billion, with the total of 39.6 million payments (the average daily turnover of DIN 21.15 billion, with the average of 333 thousand payments a day). The manner in which the NBS conducted the transformation of payment operations got the highest marks of relevant international financial institutions, above all the IMF. Some central banks (e.g. of Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq) have subsequently expressed interest in reforming their payment systems according to the model created by the NBS experts. Their interest was additionally aroused by the fact that the NBS managed to set up the RTGS system in only five months, which is a world record of its own. The transfer to the new payment system made it possible for the NBS to pursue an active monetary policy with reduced financial risks, whereas commercial banks now have the opportunity to create direct relations with their clients based on market principles, as is the case throughout the modern world. The main goal of monetary policy for 2003 is lowering the inflation rate to 9%. With inflation in the first five months of this year equaling 3% cumulative (7.5% at annual level), the realization of the projected annual price rise of maximum 9% has been guaranteed. A more intensive growth of exports supply than imports demand will decrease the share of the current account deficit (excluding grants) in the social product, from 12.9% in 2002 to 10.7% in 2003. A further increase of foreign exchange reserves (the targeted level is the coverage of five-month imports in Serbia) and the maintaining of stability of the dinar exchange rate, along with preserving a viable external position, will remain priorities of the NBS in the forthcoming period. With the aim of stimulating cashless method of payment, the NBS has initiated the project of issuing a national payment card, which will be free of charge for citizens, cheap for salesmen and profitable for banks. In September 2003 the first DinaCards will be issued, the aim of which is to have over million domestic payment cards in active use in the following year. Governor of the National Bank of Serbia Mladjan Dinkic Godi{wi izve{taj 2002 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA HEAD OFFICE (As of 31 May 2003) I Godi{wi izve{taj 2002 NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA MANAGEMENT (As of 31 May 2003) II Godi{wi izve{taj 2002 (As of 31 May 2003) ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL BANK SERBIA III Annual Report 2002 CONTENTS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE NATIONAL BANK 5 MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 11 ACTIVITIES OF THE NATIONAL BANK 25 MONETARY POLICY 27 EXCHANGE RATE OF THE DINAR AND FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES 45 ISSUE OF BANKKNOTES AND COINS 59 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF THE FR YUGOSLAVIA 65 EXTERNAL RELATIONS 73 BANKING SECTOR AND BANK SUPERVISION 83 PAYMENT TRANSACTIONS 99 LEGAL AND REGULATORY ACTIVITIES 107 INTERNAL AUDIT 111 ORGANIZATIONAL AND PERSONNEL CHANGES 115 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 121 ANNUAL STATEMENT OF ACCOUNT 125 AUDITOR′S REPORT 127 DECISION ON THE ANNUAL STATEMENT OF ACCOUNT FOR 2002 135 3 Annual Report 2002 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF YUGOSLAVIA HEAD OFFICE 5 Annual Report 2002 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF YUGOSLAVIA (As of 31 December 2002) 7 Annual Report 2002 NATIONAL BANK OF YUGOSLAVIA MANAGEMENT 9 Annual Report 2002 MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS PRICE MOVEMENTS 12 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT 15 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 15 EMPLOYMENT 20 DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PUBLIC SECTOR 21 EARNINGS AND TOTAL HOUSEHOLD RECEIPTS 22 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY 23 TRADE TURNOVER AND STOCKS 23 11 Macroeconomic Developments Annual Report 2002 Price Movements In the course of 2002, thanks to applied measures of monetary policy, inflation was considerably calmed down, therewith providing stability of domestic financial and market flows, stability of domestic currency, as well as a more favorable investment and general business environment in the country. After the high growth of prices of 113% during 2000 and 38.7% in 2001, the rate of inflation in comparison with retail prices (from December to December), in 2002 was reduced in the Republic of Serbia to 14.8%, and in the FR Yugoslavia to 14.2%. The achieved inflation control is even more significant taking into consideration that in 2002 further corrections were made for the adjustment of wide disparities in energy prices (primarily electric power) and other public services (utilities and other services). On the basis of National Bank data, core inflation in 2002 for the Republic of Serbia was only 6.0% and for the FR Yugoslavia 6.2%, indicating that the prices of goods and services being freely established had the slowest growth.1 Core and Overall Inflation in the Republic of Serbia (December 2001 = 100) 116 112 108 104 100 96 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2002 Core inflation Overall inflation 1In the calculation of core inflation, those prices of goods and services were excluded which were prevously generally administratively regulated and which had highest disparities (electric power, utilities, transport and telecommunication services, medicaments, bread and flour).
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