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Total Produce Buy (Not Rated) F Equity Research Full report Q&A Report United Kingdom $BloombergCode$ QA_CR Total Produce Buy (Not Rated) Ireland | Food | MCAP EUR 911.4m Target Price EUR 2.70 (none) Current Price EUR 2.35 Up/downside 14.9% Change in TP none This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized redistribution of this prohibited 05 March 2018 Change in EPS -14.9% 18E / 7.9% 19E Q. Is the Dole deal the way to go? On 1 February, Total Produce announced the acquisition of a 45% stake in the privately-owned Dole Food Company for USD300m in cash. In addition, Total Produce has the right to gradually acquire the remaining 55% for set prices. Is this transformational deal (Dole’s EBITDA is double that of Total Produce) a step in the right direction? A. Dole is a ticket to the tropics We believe there is a clear strategic rationale for getting a foot in the door at Dole, as it will allow Total Produce to diversify its activities into higher- growth regions (North America makes up 61% of Dole’s sales vs. 25% for Total Produce) and categories (tropical fruit, c. 50% of Dole’s portfolio). Furthermore, this deal is set to give Total Produce a foothold in the most iconic fresh produce brand worldwide. From a financial standpoint, we believe the deal (especially the right to eventually acquire all of the shares in Dole) will generate strong financial returns (c. 30% accretion to the group’s DCF value), as a comparison of businesses implies clear upward potential in terms of operational management. We value the “new” Total Produce at EUR2.70 per share, up from EUR2.25, and upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy. Main author Anton Brink Equity Research Analyst [email protected] +31 20 563 23 61 Food research team Biographies at the end of the report IMPORTANT. Please refer to the last page of this report for keplercheuvreux.com “Important disclosures” and analyst(s) certifications. This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France. Total Produce Buy TP EUR 2.70 Beyond the Q. Investment Case This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized redistribution of this prohibited Why the stock is a Buy We upgrade our rating for Total Produce from Hold to Buy and raise our TP from EUR2.25 to EUR2.70 (15% upside at today’s price).The Dole deal will pave the way for the creation of significant additional shareholder value, especially if one accounts for Total Produce’s rights to acquire additional equity stakes at set prices in a second (additional 6% for USD12m) and a third tranche (remaining 49% for USD450m). Given that we expect Total Produce’s involvement to improve Dole’s operating performance and cash flow generation, particularly when Total Produce’s management obtains control, the tranches come at attractive multiples (7.9x 2017E EV/EBITDA for the first tranche, 5.3x 2018E for the second and 6.5x 2020E for the third). Our TP is based on the sum of two DCF analyses, one focused on Total Produce and one on Dole. Why did we have the previous rating? We initiated coverage on Total Produce with a Hold rating (TP EUR2.25) in October 2017. Although we acknowledged that Total Produce was a clear top performer in the fresh produce distribution industry with: 1) excellent working capital management; 2) high asset turnovers; and 3) a solid track record of raising its ROIC via successful M&A, we questioned whether there was sufficient upside for the shares without significant new M&A. As it now has the opportunity to improve operating performance in the sizeable and sub-optimally managed Dole, our opinion has improved drastically. Valuation model We value the renewed Total Produce on the basis of two standalone DCFs: one for Total Produce and one for Dole. Given the structure of the deal, we model two scenarios: 1) a scenario in which Total Produce obtains a 51% equity stake in Dole, which points to a TP of EUR2.40; and 2) a scenario in which Total Produce secures 100% by buying the third tranche in 2021E, which indicates a TP of EUR3. Given that the structure of the deal is very much focused on eventually gaining full control of Dole, we have a preference for our second scenario. Nevertheless, we apply a 10% discount to the outcome of the latter, as we see above-average risks in terms of execution and pending litigation. We value Total Produce at EUR2.70 per share, up from EUR2.25. 2 keplercheuvreux.com Total Produce Buy TP EUR 2.70 Company summary Market data After the announced Dole deal, Total Produce is the world's largest fresh produce provider to Bloomberg TOT ID retailers and foodservice with approximately EUR6bn in sales on a full year basis (EUR3.7bn excl. JVs Reuters T7O.I & associates). A key part of Total Produce’s strategy is growth by acquisition, displayed by continuous Market cap (EUR) 911.4m Free float (%) 85.0 M&A activity. No. of shares outstanding (m) 388 Management Key shareholders 3m avg. daily vol (EURm) 2.3 Rory Byrne, CEO Balkan Investment & subs 12.6% YTD abs. performance -8.2% Frank Davis, CFO Franklin Templeton 9.7% 52-week high (EUR) 2.56 Carl McCann, Chairman GMT Capital 8.9% 52-week low (EUR) 1.93 This report is intended for [email protected]. Unauthorized redistribution of this prohibited Strengths Weaknesses Proven track record in M&A Thin margins Strong balance sheet Large exposure to low volume growth whole fresh markets Excellent working capital management & high asset turnover Dependence on M&A success A diversified produce portfolio Dependence on key management personnel Opportunities Threats Expanding towards organic and fresh-cut Fruit and vegetables deflation Increasing exposure to higher-growth regions Oversupply in the industry Adding value to products or services Currency fluctuations Vertical and/or horizontal integration Concentration of customers Key financials (please see the end of this report for full financials) Income Statement (EURm) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 1 year performance 2011 Sales 2,667.0 2,875.4 3,105.5 3,674.0 3,736.9 3,833.6 2.6 % Change 1.1% 7.8% 8.0% 18.3% 1.7% 2.6% EBITDA adjusted 74.1 82.9 94.9 104.4 157.2 227.4 2.5 EBIT adjusted 53.5 55.8 65.2 80.1 81.7 100.8 2.4 Adjusted EBIT margin (%) 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.6% Net profit reported 29.8 30.0 28.5 47.8 35.3 50.2 2.3 Net profit adjusted 32.0 35.4 39.1 43.9 44.4 59.2 2.2 Cash flow statement (EURm) 2.1 CF from operating activities 47.5 66.5 45.6 47.2 61.3 66.6 2.0 Capex -12.0 -22.3 -23.1 -41.5 -24.8 -20.1 Free cash flow 35.5 44.2 22.5 5.7 36.6 46.6 1.9 1.8 Balance sheet (EURm) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Intangible assets 162.6 190.5 220.5 281.1 271.7 261.7 Price DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased) Tangible assets 137.9 142.0 145.2 167.4 172.2 172.6 Fin. & other non-current assets 84.0 101.4 125.4 139.2 389.1 424.0 Sales breakdown 2017 2011 Total shareholders' equity 285.4 313.8 298.9 339.6 512.1 554.2 Eurozone Pension provisions 27.5 17.2 37.8 22.0 20.5 19.0 Liabilities and provisions 522.0 581.9 664.7 790.3 886.5 887.2 24.5% Net financial debt 16.8 18.1 48.4 113.1 194.6 188.8 40.0% Working capital requirement -20.4 -29.6 -21.8 -11.2 -12.0 -19.9 Non-Eurozone Europe Invested capital 415.4 455.6 523.2 631.4 876.0 893.5 Per share data (EUR) EPS adj and fully diluted 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.15 35.5% International (North- America) Cash flow per share 0.14 0.20 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 Book value per share 0.66 0.72 0.71 0.80 1.10 1.20 DPS 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 Profit breakdown 2017 2011 Ratios ROE 14.7% 15.5% 16.8% 18.1% 12.9% 13.3% ROIC 10.5% 9.9% 10.2% 10.3% 8.1% 8.5% Eurozone Gearing 5.9% 5.8% 16.2% 33.3% 38.0% 34.1% 15 27 Valuation P/E adjusted and fully diluted 10.5 11.5 13.1 15.8 20.7 15.6 Non-Eurozone Europe P/CF 7.0 6.0 11.1 14.6 14.9 13.7 P/BV 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.0 Dividend yield (%) 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 42 FCF yield (%) 10.6% 11.0% 4.5% 0.8% 4.0% 5.1% International EV/Sales 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA 7.6 7.8 9.1 10.9 9.1 6.2 EV/EBIT 10.5 11.6 13.3 14.1 17.5 13.9 EV/IC 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 3 keplercheuvreux.com Total Produce Buy TP EUR 2.70 Q&A in six charts Chart 1: A transformational deal, combined EUR7.4bn sales Chart 2: Dole is complementary to TP’s EU focused portfolio 8 This report is intended for [email protected].
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