major recipient of the award. The Con- gress, for its part, will endeavour to see Fractured Mandates that, though now in alliance, the TRS does not become another TDP for it in Telangana. As of now, with the TRS and Their Concoctions winning a mere 26 out of 105-odd assem- bly seats in Telangana, the Congress can The fractured mandates generated by the recent general elections afford to argue that the urgency to separate reveal that both national parties, the Congress and the BJP, Telangana does not prevail. registered a decline in their vote shares. In a situation where The case of the Congress in Karnataka is poignant. The fractured mandate in the results were largely decided by state level political alignments and state assembly elections has forced it to considerations, allies and regional parties are now assuming a partner its rival JD (S). Advice has been more important role. given to the JD (S) and the Karnataka state unit of the Congress to work out adjust- MAHESH GAVASKAR adds another variation. The various com- ments akin to the Congress-NCP pact in ponents of the non-BJP, non-Congress Maharashtra. After all, they are ‘secular’, ontrary to its own expectations, the third front that comprised the United Front opposed to the ‘communal’ BJP. But the Congress has cornered a slightly government in mid-1990s are now to be specific circumstances in Karnataka por- Clarger share of the election pie this found, for the first time post-reform, co- tend that it will require extraordinary time. In a scenario of repeated fractured habiting with the Congress. Not long ago, maturity from the newly wed partners for mandates, even this meagre gain in seats some of them, like the DMK, were com- their marriage to last five years. For unlike is enough for a bigger party with a national fortable in the BJP-led NDA alliance. There the NCP, the JD (S) is no offshoot of the presence like the Congress to bag plum is no contradiction in this shift as regional Congress. The history and mindset of the posts. The vote share of the Congress has parties like the DMK, the RJD, the SP, JD (S) leadership has different political declined despite contesting more seats – the PDP are not anti-Congress per se but links. Second, couple of assembly and the Congress remains effectively anti-AIADMK, anti-JD (U), anti-BSP and parliamentary elections have proved that marginalised, as it has been for couple of anti-NC respectively. So long as their the NCP’s base does not stretch beyond decades now, in UP, Bihar, West Bengal regional rivals are kept out, they have no the sugar belt of western Maharashtra. and Tamil Nadu. Congress, shrank in compunction joining a coalition led either Even its leader Sharad Pawar has got Karnataka and in Maharashtra, despite by the Congress or the BJP. The left in reconciled to this fact and learned to curtail joining hands with Sharad Pawar’s NCP, West Bengal and Kerala is anti-Congress his ambitions. The Congress base remains it failed to put up an emphatic perfor- but given the political compulsions, it has scattered over other parts of the state. But mance.The party put up a credible perfor- shown readiness to dilute its stand to non- in Karnataka, there is no such clear-cut mance only in two significant states – Congressism at the centre and prop up a territorial division of the party base of the Andhra Pradesh and Delhi. In Haryana Congress-led UPA coalition. JD (S) and the Congress. In fact, in south and Assam, the Congress would not have Regional parties like the TDP, SAD, Karnataka, they are the main rivals. If the posted the success it did, had the BJP BJD, INLD, AGP which are primarily JD (S) consolidates its base in southern shown the wisdom to align with regional anti-Congress and have no other regional Karnataka, the Congress faces a genuine parties of the respective states. party as a rival in their state, cannot shift prospect of getting confined to northern The parliamentary left, having created their stand as their regional counterparts and coastal regions of the state, where as a revolution of sorts by mobilising in its in Bihar and Tamil Nadu have done. The the recent state and parliamentary elec- strongholds maximum number of its cad- TRS, the new arrival on the scene, is not tions have shown the BJP is resurgent. res and sympathisers to the election booth, contesting TDP across AP but, like the decided once more to remain cloistered. JMM in Jharkhand, is for a separate UP as an Oddity After much deliberation, it lowered its homeland of Telangana. The apprehen- stringency to accept the speakership. sions of such parties is that, irrespective Amidst this conglomeration, the odd Again, thanks to the fractured electoral of its legitimacy, their demand is open to case of UP stands out. With the major mandate, the left parties can have their say manipulation by the national party at the regional parties in the state, the SP and in national policy matters disproportion- centre, which by creating a separate state the BSP, staying out of the UPA, this big ate to their base. True, as the left says, 2 can claim all the honours for the deed. This state lacks proportionate representation at per cent of equity shareholders should not is exactly what the BJP attempted to do the centre. Surely, the SP-BSP rivalry has throw tantrums by creating a bogey of the by creating Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and grown to assume dimensions similar to the left. But equally, the left party spokesmen, Uttaranchal. Like the left, the TRS has DMK-AIADMK, rendering the national with a paltry 7 per cent vote share (most of taken calculated precaution to maintain its parties, the BJP and the Congress, inef- which from just three states), cannot dis- brand image untarnished by relinquishing fectual in the state. Yet, given the vast, dainfully dispatch the stock market to hell. central portfolios and thereby attesting its diverse and stratified terrain of UP, a Of the various permutations and com- unalloyed commitment to its (sub-) re- unilateral swing – as it often happens in binations of the ruling coalitions that the gional base. For, if ever the Congress-led TN – in favour of the SP or the BSP is Indian electorate has been witnessing in government carves out a separate difficult to imagine. For the very same the post-reform period, the recent version Telangana, the TRS should be seen as a reasons, despite augmenting its caste base,

Economic and Political Weekly June 12, 2004 2437 it is doubtful if the SP will achieve a him to see Paswan break away from the displacing Mayawati and ushering in hegemonic position in the state similar to NDA. He had already thrown open the Mulayam Singh, their plans turned out to the Congress in yesteryears. doors to the Congress ever since the JD be hypothetical than realistic. The Vajpayee With the left announcing its support to in Bihar underwent a split, a fate that the factor failed to steal the show over Mulayam a Congress-led government at the centre Yadav in the adjacent state did not suffer. and Mayawati even in the former’s home even before the elections, the chances of In this battle to maintain respective bases, state, conveying that the cutting down to a third front government, where the SP can Laloo displayed his sense of realpolitik by size of their former state brand Kalyan play a significant role, dwindled. Yet, it shedding the Lohiaite anti-Congressism, Singh mid-way has done irreparable dam- is to be noted that the SP abstained from his erstwhile colleagues George Fernandes age to the party’s prospects in the state. making any pre-election commitment of and Sharad Yadav remain imbued with. After having being squarely falsified supporting a Congress-led government at But now, by accepting Paswan into his despite minutely monitoring the election the centre. This should not lead to deduc- alliance fold, he has to be alert that the drama as it unfolded through their opinion tion that the SP is less anti-BJP than the Congress and Paswan do not get chummy and exit polls, a segment of the poll pundits left when it comes to defending its sole at the centre and threaten his dominance is now busy projecting that a new cosmos turf in UP. Rather, its inscrutable approach in the state alliance. Having weathered the has emerged out of the recent electoral towards the Congress emerges from the storm of corruption charges by cannily verdict. Such attempts do boost the con- fact that having burnt its bridges with the identifying himself with a victimised fidence of the dispensation on the thresh- BSP and with no chance of aligning with Bihari-hood rather than Mandalised old to imagine that it is really new. What the BJP (unless fractured mandate dictate sloganeering, he has decided to participate is clear is that assuming the left votes went such terms), the SP has largely to depend in the cabinet to liberate his decade-long into the Congress kitty in states and con- on its own base to expand to come to power besieged base in Bihar. stituencies where left had marginal pres- in a state most prone to fractured man- Nevertheless, against this understand- ence, the Congress owes some part of its dates. With the BSP holding on to its able desire of various parties to protect success in overcoming the BJP-led NDA distinct dalit base, it is only by cutting into their bases in their respective states, alliance to the left. But the Congress should the base of the BJP and the Congress that Mulayam Singh’s foray into Bihar remains keep in mind that the left was compelled the SP can ever aspire to a hegemonic to be accounted for. Was it a part of the to give a helping hand on the issue of position. Moreover, given the prominent understanding between him and George secularism. On the economic front, given position that UP occupies on the electoral Fernandes that having helped in installing the nature of formation that has come into map of India, it is deeply embarrassing for his government in UP (Fernandes was existence, listening to the left while believ- parties claiming to be national to have present at Mulayam Singh’s swearing-in ing in their own wisdom will be the best insignificant presence in the state. Given ceremony), the former should try to cut course for Manmohan Singh-P Chidam- the still relevant multi-polarity in the state, into the yadav base of the RJD in Bihar baram duo. EPW the possibilities of alliances and bagful of and thus indirectly help the JD (U) which seats it provides, the national parties can had lost its ally in Ramvilas Paswan to still claim to be down but not out in UP. Laloo Prasad? If this was so then two The Congress is at its wit’s end to figure things are obvious. First, the Mulayam out a comeback in West Bengal and Tamil Singh-Laloo Prasad duel was one more Nadu. But in UP it still nurtures a hope chapter, scripted by versatile Fernandes, that the younger breed from the Nehru- in the congenital infighting plaguing the Gandhi dynasty, with their fabled genera- socialist group. With the two Yadavs, the tional ties with UP, will turn the tables for biggest beneficiaries of Mandal revolu- it. The BJP has its bold Hindi-centric, tion, sparring at each other, it sheds light north-centric image and the undoused on the vacuousness of pro-Mandal solida- Ayodhya issue to re-occupy the heartland. rity. Second, the fallout of this ‘under- Further, the shrewd Mulayam Singh knows standing’ has been disastrous for the NDA that the BJP or the Congress, being na- both in Bihar and UP. In Bihar, the SP’s tional parties, have the option to leverage mere tinkering with yadav votes was a poor their hold on the centre to snipe at his compensation to prevent the tally of JD (U) party’s resource base limited to UP. from plummeting, while in UP the instal- Thus, like the left and the TRS, Mulayam lation of Mulayam Singh government, Singh has calibrated his position vis-a-vis contrary to the expectations of the NDA, the Congress taking into account the ground acted more as a terminator of the BJP than realities prevailing in UP. Similarly, Laloo the BSP. Mulayam Singh must be satisfied Prasad Yadav’s participation in the with his show of strength in UP but was Congress-led cabinet, as distinct from the he embarking upon a scheme of widening distance maintained by the three above- the non-Congress space post-election by mentioned non-Congress formations, also indirectly helping the Congress rivals in reflects his assessment of alignment of Bihar? If so, the final results, to his dis- political forces in his state. After surviving appointment, have deprived him of such the severe setback he received in the 1999 a space. As for Fernandes and Pramod Lok Sabha elections, it was a pleasure for Mahajan of the BJP, who are credited for

2438 Economic and Political Weekly June 12, 2004