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Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine Book Author(S): ELIZABETH A Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine ELIZABETH A. WOOD WILLIAM E. POMERANZ E. WAYNE MERRY MAXIM TRUDOLYUBOV Woodrow Wilson Center Press Washington, D.C. Columbia University Press New York This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Woodrow Wilson Center Press Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org Columbia University Press Publishers Since 1893 New York • Chichester, West Sussex cup.columbia.edu Copyright © 2016 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Wood, Elizabeth A., 1958– author. | Pomeranz, William E., author. | Merry, E. Wayne, author. | Trudolyubov, Maxim. Title: Roots of Russia’s war in Ukraine / Elizabeth A. Wood, William E. Pomeranz, E. Wayne Merry, and Maxim Trudolyubov. Description: Washington, D.C. : Woodrow Wilson Center Press ; New York : Columbia University Press, 2015. | Includes index. Identifiers: LCCN 2015038287 | ISBN 9780231704533 (pbk.) | ISBN 9780231801386 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Ukraine Conflict, 2014– —Causes | Ukraine—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) | Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations— Ukraine. Classification: LCC DK508.852 .W66 2015 | DDC 947.7086—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015038287 Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid-free paper. This book is printed on paper with recycled content. Printed in the United States of America. p 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cover photo: Flag of Ukraine and man with machine gun on a background of blue sky © Shutterstock/Bielikov Vadym Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. References to websites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the authors nor Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Columbia University Press are responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was printed. This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms The Wilson Center, chartered by Congress as the official memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key nonpartisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue to inform actionable ideas for Congress, the Administration, and the broader policy community. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and pro- grams are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. Please visit us online at www.wilsoncenter.org. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO Board of Trustees Thomas R. Nides, Chair Public members: William Adams, Chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities; James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; Sylvia Mathews Burwell, Secretary of Health and Human Services; Arne Duncan, Secretary of Education; David Ferriero, Archivist of the United States; John F. Kerry, Secretary of State; David J. Skorton, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. Designated appointee of the president from within the federal government: Fred P. Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States Private citizen members: Peter Beshar, John T. Casteen III, Thelma Duggin, Lt. Gen. Susan Helms, USAF (Ret.), Barry S. Jackson, Nathalie Rayes, Earl W. Stafford, Jane Watson Stetson Wilson National Cabinet Ambassador Joseph B. Gildenhorn & Alma Gildenhorn, Co-Chairs Eddie & Sylvia Brown, Melva Bucksbaum & Raymond Learsy, Paul & Rose Carter, Armeane & Mary Choksi, Ambassadors Sue & Chuck Cobb, Lester Crown, Thelma Duggin, Judi Flom, Sander R. Gerber, Harman Family Foundation, Susan Hutchison, Frank F. Islam, Willem Kooyker, Linda B. & Tobia G. Mercuro, Dr. Alexander V. Mirtchev, Thomas R. Nides, Nathalie Rayes, Wayne Rogers, B. Francis Saul II, Ginny & L. E. Simmons, Diana Davis Spencer, Jane Watson Stetson, Leo Zickler v This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 22:53:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Contents List of Figures ix Chronology: The War in Crimea and Ukraine xi Introduction 1 Elizabeth A. Wood 1 The Origins of Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Clash of Russian and European “Civilizational Choices” for Ukraine 27 E. Wayne Merry 2. Ground Zero: How a Trade Dispute Sparked the Russia-Ukraine Crisis 51 William E. Pomeranz vii This content downloaded from 159.178.22.27 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 21:15:06 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms viii | CONTENTS 3. Russia’s Grand Choice: To Be Feared as a Superpower or Prosperous as a Nation? 75 Maxim Trudolyubov 4. A Small, Victorious War? The Symbolic Politics of Vladimir Putin 97 Elizabeth A. Wood Conclusion 131 William E. Pomeranz Acknowledgments 137 Index 139 This content downloaded from 159.178.22.27 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 21:15:06 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms List of Figures I.1. Major Gas Pipelines in Ukraine 4 4.1. Vladimir Putin’s Approval Rating, 100 January 2000 through September 2014 4.2. Popular Opinion about the United 104 Russia Party, 2011–13 ix This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 23:15:02 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 23:15:02 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Chronology The War in Crimea and Ukraine 2013 21 November—Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych refuses to sign European Union (EU) Association Agreement; the Maidan protests begin. 24 November—Clashes between protesters and police in Kyiv. 30 November—Berkut (Ukrainian special police forces) units try to disperse protesters. 1 December—Riots in downtown Kyiv. 8 December—Kyiv protesters tear down the Lenin statue in the Maidan. Seventy percent of those who come to the “March of a Million” claim that they are there because of police brutality on November 30. Fifty-four percent are protesting Yanukovych’s failure to sign the Association Agreement.1 10–11 December—Internal troops and Berkut units launch night assault to take back the Maidan. xi This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 20:19:32 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms xii | CHRONOLOGY 13 December—Arrival in Kyiv of an official Russian delegation of the FSB (Russian secret service).2 16–17 December—Yanukovych meets with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow; they sign an agreement for lower gas prices and a $15 billion loan.3 2014 16 January—Ukrainian parliament passes antiprotest laws, leading to a fresh wave of protests and an escalation in violence against the protesters. 20–21 January—Vladislav Surkov, advisor to Putin, meets with Yanukovych. He also visits Kyiv on January 31 and February 11 and 12.4 23 January—Creation of a “Stop Maidan” movement in Simferopol. 24 January—“Russian Bloc” party announces that it is creating self-defense units in Sevastopol. 28 January—Ukrainian prime minister Mykola Azarov resigns; Ukrainian parliament annuls its antiprotest law of January 16. 4 February—Sergei Tsekov, leader of the Russian Community of Crimea (Russkaia Obshchina Kryma, ROK), proposes that the Crimean parliament appeal to Russia for support. 6 February—Yanukovych and Putin meet in Sochi. 20 February—Vitaly Zakharchenko, Ukrainian minister of the interior, authorizes the use of force against protesters; snipers fire at protesters, killing almost one hundred. 21 February—Yanukovych and the opposition sign an agreement, in the presence of three EU representatives, in which he agrees to create a new coalition government, hold early elections, and not institute a state of emergency. This content downloaded from 130.64.11.153 on Tue, 19 Jul 2016 20:19:32 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms CHRONOLOGY | xiii 21–22 February—Yanukovych and his family leave Ukraine for Russia via Kharkiv, Donetsk, Crimea, and Rostov-on-Don. 23 February—Ukrainian parliament votes to ban Russian as Ukraine’s second official language. The ban is lifted after five days, but sets off protests. 24 February—Putin and Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu announce snap military exercises in the western and central military districts to start on Friday the 26th. 25 February—Sevastopol City Council names Aleksey Chalyi, a Russian businessman with strongly pro-Russian views, as mayor; the new authorities install checkpoints around the city. 26 February—In Kyiv, the interim government disbands the Berkut, accusing them of firing on Maidan demonstrators. Sevastopol mayor Chalyi invites the Berkut to come live in Crimea with their families.5 27 February—Russian forces without insignia seize the Crimean parliament. The parliament names Sergei Aksyonov head of the Crimean government. Berkut police create blockades at key points on the peninsula. 1 March—Aksyonov asks Putin for help as Russian troops in unmarked uniforms fan out across the peninsula. First major pro-Russian demonstrations in Donetsk, as well as attempts to hold demonstrations in Kharkiv and Mariupol. 2 March—Ukrainian ships that refuse to recognize Russian sovereignty leave from Sevastopol for Odessa. 6 March—The Russian Black Sea Fleet sinks an old vessel to prevent other Ukrainian ships from leaving.
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