Caucasian Review of International Affairs (CRIA) Is a Quarterly Peer-Reviewed Free, Non-Profit and Online Academic Journal Registered in Germany
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CAUCASIAN REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Vol. 3 (4) autumn 2009 ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS RENÉE GENDRON THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 1993 U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF THE ARMENIA -AZERBAIJAN CONFLICT ROVSHAN SADIGBAYLI POLITICAL ECONOMY OF OLD -AGE PENSION REFORMS IN GEORGIA ALEXI GUGUSHVILI CORRUPTION IN RUSSIA : A MODEL EXPLORING ITS ECONOMIC COSTS MICHAEL P. BARRY EXPERIMENTS IN SOFT BALANCING : CHINA - LED MULTILATERALISM IN AFRICA AND THE ARAB WORLD NICOLA P. CONTESSI BETWEEN NATO & RUSSIA : UKRAINE ’S FOREIGN POLICY CROSSROADS REVISITED MYKOLA KAPITONENKO “A RMENIA & GEORGIA : CORRUPTION , THE STATE , AND CHANGE ” INTERVIEW WITH DR. CHRISTOPH H. STEFES , UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER , US “I F TURKISH -ARMENIAN BORDER REOPENS , GEORGIA WILL BECOME LESS IMPORTANT ” INTERVIEW WITH DR. HANS GUTBROD AND KOBA TURMANIDZE , CAUCASUS RESEARCH RESOURCE CENTERS , TBILISI , GEORGIA ISSN: 1865-6773 www.cria -online.org EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Nasimi Aghayev, LL.M.Eur. EDITORIAL BOARD: Dr. Tracey German (King’s College Dr. Robin van der Hout (Europa-Institute, London, United Kingdom) University of Saarland, Germany) Dr. Andrew Liaropoulos (Institute for Dr. Jason Strakes (Analyst, Research European and American Studies, Greece) Reachback Center East, USA) Dr. Martin Malek (National Defence Dr. Cory Welt (Georgetown University, Academy, Austria) USA) INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD: Prof. Hüseyin Bagci , Middle East Prof. Elkhan Nuriyev , Director of the Technical University, Ankara, Turkey Centre for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich, University of Vienna, Austria Dr. Roy Allison, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, Prof. Edmund Herzig , Oxford University, UK UK Dr. Michael Emerson , Centre for Prof. Rüdiger Kipke , University of Siegen, European Policy Studies, Brussels, Germany Belgium Prof. Robert Legvold , Columbia Dr. Vladimer Papava , Former Minister of University, USA Economy of Georgia Prof. Werner Münch , former Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, former Member of the European Parliament, Germany MANAGING DIRECTOR: Farhad K. Rustamov The Caucasian Review of International Affairs (CRIA) is a quarterly peer-reviewed free, non-profit and online academic journal registered in Germany. The Review is committed to promote a better understanding of the regional affairs by providing relevant background information and analysis, as far as the Caucasus in general, and the South Caucasus in particular are concerned. CRIA also welcomes lucid, well- documented papers on other countries and regions including especially Turkey, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe as well as on all aspects of international affairs, from all political viewpoints. CRIA’s primary goal is to produce an efficient dialogue and exchange of ideas on the Caucasus and beyond among practitioners, researchers and theorists from the region itself and abroad. All manuscripts, general correspondence and matters concerning the functioning of CRIA should be addressed to: [email protected] CRIA is indexed in the following research databases/citation indexes: Columbia International Affairs Online, Directory of Open Access Journals, ProQuest Research Library, EBSCOhost Research Database, World Affairs Online, Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory, Deutsche Nationalbibliothek, Virtuelle Fachbibliothek Osteuropa, Global Development Network, Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek, International Relations and Security Network, Social Sciences Eastern Europe, etc. CRIA is also listed in the electronic scholarly journals catalogues of the universities such as Harvard University, Oxford University, Cambridge University, Princeton University, Stanford University, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University, George Mason University, George Washington University, University of California Berkeley, University of Chicago, University of Toronto, McGill University, Humboldt University of Berlin, Hamburg University, University of Munich, etc. Editorial Assistants: Bahar Baser, Alexander Jackson, Jesse Tatum, Jan Künzl, Elchin Mammadov Contacts: Eppsteiner Str. 2, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Tel: +49 69 138 76 684 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.cria-online.org ISSN: 1865–6773 © CRIA – All rights reserved. Copyright belongs to the CRIA, and written permission to reprint or republish in any form must be sought from the Editor-in-Chief. Articles published in CRIA do not necessarily represent the views of the Editors. VOL. 3 (4) - AUTUMN 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS Note from the Editor-in-Chief (331-332) Nasimi Aghayev RESEARCH PAPERS Alternative Dispute Resolution in the North Caucasus (pp. 333-341) by Renée Gendron The Implications of the 1993 U.N. Security Council Action for the Settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict (pp. 342-370) by Rovshan Sadigbayli Political Economy of Old-Age Pension Reforms in Georgia (pp. 371-386) by Alexi Gugushvili Corruption in Russia: A Model Exploring its Economic Costs (pp. 387-403) by Michael P. Barry Experiments in Soft Balancing: China- led Multilateralism in Africa and the Arab World (pp. 404-434) by Nicola P. Contessi COMMENT Between NATO & Russia: Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Crossroads Revisited (pp. 435-444) by Mykola Kapitonenko BOOK REVIEW “An Endless War: The Russian-Chechen Conflict in Perspective” by Emil Souleimanov (pp. 445-446) Review by Martin Malek INTERVIEW “Armenia & Georgia: Corruption, the State, and Change” (pp. 447-451) Interview with Dr. Christoph H. Stefes, University of Colorado Denver, US “If Turkish-Armenian Border Reopens, Georgia Will Become Less Important” (pp. 452-455) Interview with Dr. Hans Gutbrod and Koba Turmanidze, Caucasus Research Resource Centers, Tbilisi, Georgia NOTE FROM THE EDITOR -IN -CHIEF Nasimi Aghayev With the signing of the protocols between Armenia and Turkey in Geneva, the world waits on the two countries’ parliaments to ratify these accords and open the border—a move that could have various implications for the region and beyond. Being part of Turkey’s zero-problems policy, normalizing relations with Armenia is another step toward resolving regional problems with its immediate neighbors—measures which may prove to be too impressive for Brussels to ignore. On the other hand, resolving problems with immediate neighbors may come at the expense of creating new ones with long-time allies. Cue Azerbaijan, which also plays a large role in this process, demands a substantial progress in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the phased withdrawal of Armenian troops, before opening of the Turkish-Armenian border. For Armenia, which clearly has more to gain from the thaw, the protocols are strongly opposed by the diaspora and opposition parties, not least because of the proposal to create a so-called “historical commission” to investigate the 1915 events, which many Armenians feel calls into question the use of the genocide label. President Sargsyan’s Republican Party, however, has a parliamentary majority, which will make it difficult for any opposition forces in Yerevan and beyond to attempt to derail ratification, if the Armenian government really decides to embark on it. Nevertheless, President Sargsyan seems to be disinclined to push for the ratification until the Turkish parliament has done so. Conversely, being bound by his repeated clear-cut pledges to Azerbaijan not to open the border until the end of occupation, Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan is also demonstrating a similar reluctance. The Nabucco gas pipeline project, meanwhile, hangs in the balance as these three countries iron out their grievances and demands. If the border opens and Baku decides to decrease ties with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s energy resources may end up being routed through the Black Sea, Russia, or Iran, thereby reducing Turkey’s stake in transit, supply, and overall geopolitical influence. Speaking of Russia and Iran, Moscow remains lukewarm in agreeing to take severe measures against Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, Russia’s leaders seem to prefer to make as few commitments as possible, giving only minor and rather contradictory concessions to both sides – Washington and Brussels on one, Tehran on the other. Finally, the situation remains critically tense in the North Caucasus. After Ingush president Yunus-Bek Yevkurov was wounded in a suicide car bomb attack, Chechnya’s president Ramzan Kadyrov’s efforts to increase his power in the region have multiplied and received at least tacit support from Moscow. The firm response from Moscow, not to mention its support for Kadyrov, has arguably only increased resistance by insurgents, and still no tangible result has been produced in finding the murderers of human rights activists and journalists who have been killed while relaying stories to the world from this war-torn region. The present Autumn ’09 issue presents a meticulous assessment of importance of introducing an alternative dispute resolution mechanism in the North Caucasus, an in-depth analysis of the implications of the 1993 UN Security Council action for the NOTE FROM THE EDITOR -IN -CHIEF 331 CAUCASIAN REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS VOL . 3 (4) – AUTUMN 2009 © CRIA 2009 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, as well as a thorough research of old-age pension reforms in Georgia. The issue also includes a comment on Ukraine’s current quandary between Russia and NATO, scientifically rigorous papers on corruption in Russia, and China’s soft-balancing “experiments” in Africa and the Arab world.