MIT Civil Engineering – 1.011 Project Evaluation Spring Term 2003

Eurostar vs. Shinkansen Brief Overview

„ Shinkansen – Background References – Time Line

– Statistics „ Shinkansen – Costs and Benefits – http://www.ieee.org/organizatio ns/history_center/milestones_ph – Risks and Uncertainties otos/shinkansen.html – http://www.japanesestudies.org VS. „ Eurostar .uk/discussionpapers/Hood.html – http://www.jei.org/Archive/JEIR – Background 98/9840w3.html – Time Line „ Eurostar – http://www.eurostar.com/dctm/j – Statistics sp/index.jsp – Costs and Benefits – http://www.o- keating.com/hsr/eurostar.htm – Risks and Uncertainties – http://www.b- rail.be/press/E/nieuws/result_eu rostar.html Patrick Hereford Wintana Debessay

Background - Shinkansen Time Line

„ World’s first inter-city „ 1940 – Idea of Shinkansen introduced and high-speed rail system researched through Government „ Alternate to narrow „ 1959 – Construction begins gauge tracks that limit „ 1964 – Inauguration of Tokyo – Shin-Osaka speed service „ Considered source of – Coincided with Olympics held in Japan national pride „ 1972-1988 – New Shinkansen service lines „ Cost overruns from sporadically opened throughout Japan original estimation sporadically opened throughout Japan „ 1987 – Japan National Railways privatized

Risks and Uncertainties Statistics

„ Post-war economy unstable „ Maximum speed of 300 km/hr, Average speed of 286.1 km/hr „ Was train service the best way to go? What about highways? „ No fatalities on the service due to collision, derailment, etc. „ Topographic obstacles „ More than 280 Shinkansen trains operate „ Ridership estimations between Tokyo and Osaka each day „ Daily ridership of over 360,000 passengers

Wintana Debassay, Patrick Hereford Page 1 MIT Civil Engineering – 1.011 Project Evaluation Spring Term 2003

Cost – Benefit Analysis Background - Eurostar

„ High construction costs to be compensated „ Longest Passenger Train in the World (20 by expected high revenues cars long per train) „ „ Government project rather than profit- „ Europe's First International Train to take seeking firm advantage of the Channel Tunnel – Costs grew Æ added lines and employees „ Plagued by unreliability during its first few years of operations „ HUGE Debt ¥37.1 trillion ($274.8 billion) „ Can reach speeds up to 186 miles per hour – Privatized to 6 companies to carry some debt but can only travel 100 miles per hour in the and earn profit Chunnel

Timeline Risks and Uncertainties

„ 1994: First Eurostar commercial services „ Natural disasters ocurring near the begin from London to Channel Tunnel Paris and Brussels „ 1995: Ashford station „ Ridership during Eurostar’s opening opens a direct service from London to „ Safety of the Eurostar Disneyland Paris „ 1996: Service expands to Moutiers and Bourg St Maurice from Ashford „ 1998: Opens facilities and renovations at Paris Gare du Nord

Statistics Cost-Benefit Analysis

„ Maximum speed reached is 186 mph „ Eurostar cost approximately $31 „ 7.7 million riders during the 2002 fiscal million for the entire project year „ Crash in 2000 cost approximately $850 „ Will reach the profit zone at the end of million 2003 if all goes well „ Will obtain a profit after the 2003 „ No severe injuries during the crash of fiscal year 2000

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