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Will SAS Continue to Fly? - a Valuation of a Company in Crisis

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Will SAS Continue to Fly? - a Valuation of a Company in Crisis Will SAS continue to fly? - A valuation of a company in crisis - Will SAS continue to fly? - A valuation of a company in crisis - Supervisor: Jens Borges Authors: Maren Emilie Birkeland Christian Emanuel Friedrich Christ Study Line: Applied Economics and Finance STU: 118 pages 1 Hand in Date: 29/10/2009 Will SAS continue to fly? - A valuation of a company in crisis - Executive Summary The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the strategy of the SAS Group and its current competitive environment in order to value the share price of the SAS Group as of the 30th of June 2009, and discuss whether the group is able to overcome its current crisis. To evaluate this, an analysis of the company’s macro- and microenvironment has been undertaken and its internal strategy has been analysed. Additionally financial statements have been forecasted and a share value has been estimated via the use of DCF, economic profit, multiple and liquidation analysis. Scandinavian Airline System Group (SAS Group) is Scandinavia’s leading Airline; it operates various hub’s in the region and has a market share of around 50%. The company is currently in a crisis due to high competition coupled with falling demand. The SAS Group is mainly affected by economical factors, high competition as well as deregulation. Preferences of passenger have changed from being service orientated to being more price conscious. Consequently it has been recognised, that the airline industry is a highly competitive industry with extremely tight profit margins. Additionally, the airline is performing poorly compared to its competitors in key areas, but has some unrealised competitive advantages. Based on our forecasted financial statements, supported by findings from our strategic analysis as well as industry reports, it has been found that the airline will experience financial difficulties until 2011. The performance of the group is expected to improve from 2012 onwards. The liquidation value has been estimated to be SEK 1.16. To compare the SAS Group’s financial performance with its comparable companies and to check the results from the DCF and economic profit approach, a multiple analyses has been undertaken; this analysis yielded a share price of SEK 3.26. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been used to estimate the after Tax cost of capital. The cost of capital has been estimated to be 8.54%, which results in a share price estimation of SEK 4.02. This is a 17.9% deviation from the published share price of the 30th of June 2009. As a result we have found that the share price is slightly undervalued by the market. 2 Will SAS continue to fly? - A valuation of a company in crisis - Table of Contents: Part 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Motivation: .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.2 Problem identification: Thesis Statement ................................................................................ 9 1.3 Limitations ............................................................................................................................. 10 1.3.1 General Limitation ......................................................................................................... 10 1.3.2 Strategic analysis limitations .......................................................................................... 10 1.3.3 Financial analysis limitations .......................................................................................... 10 1.3.4 Forecasting .................................................................................................................... 10 1.3.5 Valuation ....................................................................................................................... 11 1.4 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 12 1.4.1 Research philosophy ...................................................................................................... 12 1.4.2 Research approaches ..................................................................................................... 12 1.4.3 Research strategy ........................................................................................................... 13 1.4.4 Data collection method .................................................................................................. 13 1.4.5 Reliability and validity of sources ................................................................................... 13 1.4.6 Structure of the paper .................................................................................................... 14 1.4.7 Definition of terms: ........................................................................................................ 16 Part 2: Introduction of the SAS Group ....................................................................................... 17 2.1 Company presentation and overview ..................................................................................... 17 2.1.1 History ........................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Recent Development ...................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Group Structure ..................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Core activities ........................................................................................................................ 20 2.4 Other activities ...................................................................................................................... 20 2.5 Ownership and share performance ........................................................................................ 20 2.6 Main markets ......................................................................................................................... 21 Part 3: Strategic analysis .......................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Analysis of the macro environment: PEST .............................................................................. 23 3.1.1 Political factors .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1.2 Economic factors ............................................................................................................ 25 3.1.3 Socio-cultural factors ..................................................................................................... 26 3.1.4 Technological factors ..................................................................................................... 28 3.1.5 Implications of the PEST analysis .................................................................................... 28 3.2 Micro environmental analysis: Porter’s 5 forces .................................................................... 30 3.2.1 Threat of entry ............................................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Threat of substitutes ...................................................................................................... 31 3 Will SAS continue to fly? - A valuation of a company in crisis - 3.2.3 Power of suppliers ......................................................................................................... 32 3.2.4 Power of buyers ............................................................................................................. 33 3.2.5 Competitive rivalry ......................................................................................................... 33 3.2.6 Implications of Porter’s five forces ................................................................................. 34 3.3 Airline comparison ................................................................................................................. 35 3.3.1 Introduction to the competitors ..................................................................................... 35 3.3.2 Performance comparison ............................................................................................... 37 3.4 Internal strategic analysis ...................................................................................................... 41 3.4.1 SAS Group’s current strategy ......................................................................................... 41 3.4.2 SAS Group’s resources and capabilities .......................................................................... 46 3.4.3 Value chain analyses ...................................................................................................... 50 3.5 SWOT analysis ....................................................................................................................... 58 3.6 Conclusive remarks on the strategy part ................................................................................ 58 Part 4: Framework of the Valuation .......................................................................................... 60 4.1 Cash flow approaches: Structure ..........................................................................................
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