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Science for Saving Species Research Findings Factsheet Project 2.1

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Science for Saving Species Research findings factsheet Project 2.1 Mammal Red Hot List: The Australian mammals most at risk of extinction Key Messages This project seeks to identify those managers had been able to respond Pooling such extinction-likelihoods Australian species at greatest risk more effectively and rapidly to the across species, the project also of extinction in the near to medium threats driving their decline. We want estimates that the long-established future (about 20 years), and to to avoid further losses, a sentiment rate of mammal extinctions is identify priority actions that may and commitment that underpins likely to continue – indeed, to most effectively reduce the risks Australia’s recent Threatened Species accelerate (to about 3-4 mammals). of such extinctions. Strategy. To reduce the likelihood New estimates suggest we’ll lose of future extinctions, it is necessary about 7 mammals in the next 20 On average, one to two Australian to be more aware of those species years under current management. mammal species have become extinct that are at most acute risk, and to per decade since the 1850s. At least 30 identify priority actions for those The mammals at highest risk of species of Australia’s highly distinctive species that reduce such risk. extinction are spread widely: several mammal fauna have been lost in are restricted to islands (reinforcing the last 200 years, with two of these This research project has garnered, integrated and analysed the the conservation need and challenge extinctions occuring in the last decade. knowledge of Australian researchers of island biodiversity), but many Most of these extinctions could have expert in mammal conservation, to of the mammals at highest risk been prevented had conservation derive a first-ever estimate of the of extinction are from northern managers and our community likelihood of extinction over the Australia, an area currently witnessing been more aware of the extent of next 20 years for Australia’s most a rapid and severe decline in risk that these species faced, and if imperilled mammals. mammal fauna generally. No. 1: Central rock rat. No. 11: Western ringtail possum. No. 10: Brush tailed Rabbit Rat. Further Information Photo: Peter McDonald Photo: Kaori Yokochi, Roberta Bencini Photo: Hugh Davies For more information contact: Prof John Woinarski – [email protected] CC BY 4.0 Wikimedia The 20 Australian mammals most at risk of extinction over the next 20 years Mean likelihood Rank Species or sub-species of extinction within 20 years (%) Central rock-rat 1 65 Zyzomys pedunculatus* Northern hopping-mouse 2 48 Notomys aquilo* Carpentarian rock-rat 3 44 Zyzomys palatalis Christmas Island flying-fox 4 41 Pteropus natalis* Black-footed tree-rat (Kimberley and mainland NT) No. 14: Kangaroo Island Dunnart 5 39 Photo: Jody Gates Mesembriomys gouldii gouldii Gilbert’s potoroo 6 36 Potorous gilbertii* Table 1. The 20 Australian Leadbeater’s possum mammals most at risk of 7 29 extinction over the next 20 years. Gymnobelideus leadbeateri* Nabarlek (Top End) Note that these estimates are based 8 29 Petrogale concinna canescens on an assumption of continuation Brush-tailed phascogale (Kimberley) of the level and effectiveness of 9 28 current management. Phascogale tapoatafa kimberleyensis Brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Kimberley, Top End) 10 25 Conilurus penicillatus penicillatus* Western ringtail possum 11 25 Pseudocheirus occidentalis* Northern brush-tailed phascogale 12 23 Phascogale pirata Mountain pygmy-possum 13 22 Burramys parvus* Kangaroo Island dunnart 14 22 Sminthopsis griseoventer aitkeni* Brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Tiwi Islands) 15 21 Conilurus penicillatus melibius* Silver-headed antechinus 16 20 Antechinus argentus Southern bent-winged bat 17 18 Miniopterus orianae bassanii Black-tailed antechinus 18 17 Antechinus arktos Northern bettong 19 14 Bettongia tropica Tasman Peninsula dusky antechinus 20 14 Antechinus vandycki Australia’s Threatened Species Strategy (2016) includes ten mammals from Table 1 as priority species (marked*). Locations of the 20 Australian mammals at greatest risk of extinction Figure 1. Locations of the 20 Australian mammals at greatest risk of extinction This map shows the number of mammals occurring in each Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA) subregion. A consistent method to identify species at most risk of extinction The methods developed in this To date, this project has provided project are being applied to identify estimates of extinction risk for extinction risk for species in many Australian birds and mammals. other taxonomic groups. In general, the information available In this project, we have obtained for threatened species in these estimates of likelihood of extinction groups is more substantial than for through an expert elicitation process. threatened species in other groups We have complemented this (such as fish or spiders). However, approach with estimates derived even for the relatively well-known from the application of existing groups such as birds and mammals, global protocols for conservation there are significant information status assessment. These approaches gaps – in knowledge of population provide broadly comparable size and trajectories, the threatening estimates, although all approaches factors that are most imperilling the have their constraints and sets of species, and the effectiveness of assumptions, such that the use of management actions that seek to several complementary approaches control such threats – that markedly is most likely to provide a robust constrain our ability to predict the assessment of extinction risk: the future for these species. It is difficult future of any species is not always to predict the future if we don’t know straightforward to predict. well the past or the present. No. 17: Southern bentwing bat Photo: Steve Bourne CC BY-SA 4.0 Wikimedia No. 13: Mountain Pygmy Possum No. 4: Christmas Island flying-fox. No. 7: Leadbeaters Possum Photo: Australian Alps collection - Parks Australia Photo: Welbergen CC BY-SA 3.0 Wikimedia Photo: Dan Harley On average, one to two Australian mammal species have become extinct per decade since the 1850s. Future extinctions are more likely to be avoided if we can identify the mammals at greatest risk. Further Information For more information contact: Prof John Woinarski – [email protected] This project is supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program..
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