1 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

PICT NEWSLETTER VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT/CATR Book Launched at book provides a collaborative and multi-national CATR Conference in Manila analysis of a series of new and emerging transnational threats, including terrorism, organised The Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter crime, ideological/cultural radicalisation and Terrorism is pleased to announce the publication environmental and demographic instability. of a new peer reviewed academic book Asian Transnational Security Challenges: Emerging Trends, Asian Transnational Security Challenges was launched Regional Visions (Macquarie University, 224 pages, on 29 October at the tenth bi-annual conference of 2010). the Council for Asian Transnational Threats Research in Manila, the . The launch was held as part of a special International Forum on Asia Pacific Security, co-organized by the Philippines Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR), CATR, the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) and the Asia Pacific Security Forum. PICT was represented by its Director, Professor Peter Anderson, Adjunct Professor Clive Williams, Shanaka Jayasekara and Dr. Julian Droogan. At the Forum, PICT’s Shanaka Jayasekara presented on post the Tamil war, and presentations were also delivered by other CATR members including Hekmat Karzai from and Dr. Katy Oh Hassig from the United States. (For press coverage of the Forum click here) The Forum and book launch were attended by delegates representing government agencies, the armed forces, the Diplomatic community, the foreign press and academic institutions and research centres from , the USA and Asia. Table of Contents: 1. The Council for Asian Transnational Threat Research – Peter Anderson Edited by Dr. Caroline Zeimke-Dickens and PICT’s Dr. 2. Afghanistan – Hekmat Karzai Julian Droogan the book is the result of a two-year research project coordinated by the Council for Asian 3. – Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial Transnational Threats Research (CATR) exploring 4. I – ANM Muniruzzam Asia’s emerging threat landscape. Drawing on the work of some of Asia’s best regional security experts, 5. Bangladesh II – Golam Mohammad, A. K. M. the volume explores the coming security challenges Nasrul Islam et.al for ten key Asian nations at a time of rapid economic 6. Sri Lanka – Rana Kalansooriya, Shanaka and strategic change, and considers how these Jayasekara et.al developments will affect the wider Asia region. The 7. – Kamarulnizam bin Abdullah 2 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

8. –Kumar Ramakrishna PICT Participates in IISS Country 9. The Philippines – Rommel C. Banlaoi Dialogue in London 10. – Jamhari Makruf PICT Associate Lecturer Shanaka Jayasekara participated at the Country Dialogue on Sri Lanka 11. Australia – Milton Baar, Julian Droogan, Shanaka held at the International Institute for Strategic Jayasekara et.al Studies (IISS) in London on 19 October 2010. He 12. – Katsuhisa Furukawa, Naoko Noro co-presented with Prof Rohan Gunaratna on the 13. The Emerging Trends – Caroline Ziemke-Dickens, topic countering terrorism and transnational fronts. Julian Droogan The IISS country dialogues provide an opportunity for detailed discussion on country specific issues relating to political, social, economic and security interests. The IISS is the primary source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues for politicians and diplomats, foreign affairs analysts, international business, economists, the military, defence commentators, journalists, academics and the informed public. The Institute is independent, owing no allegiance to any governments or any political or other organisations. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward- looking policy orientation and places particular CATR Delegates in Manila in October emphasis on bringing new perspectives to strategic

discussions. PICT has a limited number of complimentary volumes to offer to students and friends of the Centre. To order, direct your enquiries to: Dr. Julian Droogan - [email protected] Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism (PICT). Building Y3A MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY NSW 2109 AUSTRALIA Telephone: 61 2 9850 1425 Facsimile: 61 2 9850 1440

Shanaka Jayasekara (right) at the IISS Country Dialogue in London in October 3 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

Public Seminar on Terrorism in development and peace building. CAPS produces the Philippines a monthly newsletter providing in-depth analysis of current issues in Afghanistan and its region. For latest developments in Afghanistan, and a monthly overview of recent news regarding Afghan security, insurgency and conflict, log onto the CAPS website at http://www.caps.af/. The Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies and PICT are partner members of the Council of Asian Transnational Threat Research (CATR).

PICT Profile

Dr Ian Wells – Senior Lecturer PICT would like to welcome Dr. Ian Wells to Prof. Peter Anderson, Prof. Rommel Banlaoi, and Reverend the Centre. Ian joined PICT Father Eliseo Mercado on 21 June as Coordinator

of Learning and Teaching. On 30 September PICT hosted one of the world’s He has taken on an leading authorities on Southeast Asian terrorism, exciting role focused on Professor Rommel Banlaoi, who visited the developing PICT’s centre to present a lecture on the ‘Private Armed approach to learning and Violence and Terrorism in the Southern Philippines: teaching with a particular Protecting Australia’s National Interests in a Troubled aim of improving the Centre’s online delivery of Neighbourhood’. Professor Banlaoi’s lecture courses. Ian is working with teaching staff to improve provided a useful and revealing update of the latest assessment practices and PICT’s ability to support information on Islamic secessionist and terrorist students studying at the Centre. Ian is also organisations such as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in convening the Intelligence stream within the Western Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, and program and is currently immersed in reviewing what this means for Australia. The lecture was well existing intelligence courses and developing new attended by Macquarie University academics, staff, courses for offer in 2012. students and representatives from the government and private sector from both Sydney and Canberra. Ian has had a long career in intelligence and intelligence education. Prior to joining PICT he spent Keep Abreast of the Situation in ten years as a senior academic with the Queensland Afghanistan with CAPS University of Technology (QUT). He developed the postgraduate intelligence program, held a range Afghanistan is currently one of the most volatile of senior service positions, including as Director of and fast changing regions in the global security Undergraduate Programs in the QUT Law Faculty landscape, therefore reliable local sources are highly and won appointment as a Teaching Fellow. Ian useful if one is to stay abreast of developments as continues to hold an adjunct role at QUT and has they occur. The Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies published on teaching in the online environment. (CAPS), based in Kabul, Afghanistan, under the Prior to this Ian held a wide range of intelligence Directorship of Mr Hekmat Karzai, is an independent appointments, including Principal Intelligence research centre that conducts action-orientated Analyst with the Queensland Criminal Justice research aimed at influencing policy-makers in key Commission and Coordinator Intelligence and areas including security, state building, governance, Manager Asia Branch (Analysis) within the Australian 4 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO). Ian also Each month the Asian Conflict Reports update served two terms as senior South Asia analyst with readers on important emerging security issues from the Office of National Assessments. Ian was a senior across Asia written by and for regional professionals policy officer in the Department of Defence in and analysts. international relations and capability development, June, 2010: Includes reports on ’s foreign at various times heading up the areas responsible for energy quest and ASEAN, Six-Party Talks on North developing peacekeeping policy, counter terrorism Korea, CBRN terrorist incidents in Japan, and the policy and major capability investment. challenges for manpower export from Bangladesh. Ian’s current research interests include intelligence Download here. ethics and governance, intelligence as a nascent July-August, 2010: Includes reports on China, North profession and intelligence education. He currently Korea-Iran Nuclear Axis, Muscular Secularism in supervises PhD students in a range of areas, Singapore, Wahhabism in Sri Lanka, Privately Armed including futures of terrorism, intelligence systems Groups in the Philippines. Download here. theory, airport security and intelligence and the media. September-October, 2010: Includes reports on Maoism in , Terrorism in Japan, Transnational Student Services Update Security Threats to Bangladesh, and Secularism vs. Radical Islam in Bangladesh. Download here. Semester two is fast coming to an end. PICT staff would like to wish everyone who is completing their PICT and Australian Cybercrime program every success with their future endeavours. To continuing students we wish you all a safe and Through September-October 2010 PICT Associate happy holiday and look forward to seeing you in Lecturer Stephen McCombie presented on 2011. cybercrime at a number of high profile Australian crime conferences. Stephen is the coordinator of • Semester Two marks will be released on 17 PICT’s new Postgraduate Certificate and Diploma December and they will be available via programs in Computer Forensics. eStudent. • If you wish to obtain an official academic The High Tech Crime Conference transcript please refer to: http://www.student. https://www.ahtcc.net/Default.aspx mq.edu.au/ses/academictranscript.html In Sydney, early September, Stephen presented on • Semester one enrolment information will be ‘Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP) Honeynets’, sent out by email in January 2011. and on how a VOIP honeynet was used to study the behaviour of hackers who are targeting VOIP systems CATR Asian Conflict Reports with specialised tools such as Sipvicious. PICT, in conjunction The High Tech Crime Conference was hosted by the with the Council for Australian Federal Police in conjunction with the Asian Transnational University of Technology Sydney. The HTCC brought Threats Research together domestic and international experts (CATR), offers you the and leaders from the Judiciary, legal fraternity, opportunity to stay government, law enforcement agencies, academia abreast of current and the private sector. Through the HTCC, these developments in the stakeholders shared information and knowledge security landscape of in order to build Australia’s capability and response our region through links to the latest Asian Conflict against this complex and pervasive form of Reports. criminality. 5 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

National Identity Crime Symposium The International Anti-Money Laundering http://www.police.qld.gov.au/News+and+Alerts/ Forum 2010 campaigns/synergy/hitechsymp/ http://liquidlearning.com.au/documents/AML1010/ AML1010_E.pdf In Brisbane, late September, Stephen In late October Stephen presented on ‘Phishing and presented on ‘Phishing and Money Laundering’ at the International Anti-Money ID Theft’. His presentation Laundering Forum in Sydney. His talk explained that argued that cybercrime the easiest way to defeat phishing was treating it groups have compromised as a money laundering problem. The practical and large numbers of personal applied focus of Stephen’s presentation was part of credentials including the International Anti-Money Laundering Forum’s millions of social strategy to provide practical tools and strategies networking site credentials to improve program compliance, prevent money which can be easily used to laundering and create a culture around anti-money commit ID theft. laundering. The National Identity Crime Symposium explored the increasing influence and impetus of hi tech upon the Conference Reviews identity crime movement. With leading experts from the field, this conference was designed to enable AIPIO Forum, 15 October, 2010

participants to gain insight into many domestic and international issues surrounding cyber crime and ID crime. The theme of the symposium was “Identity Crime in a Hi Tech World.”

International Serious and Organised Crime Conference 2010 http://www.aic.gov.au/events/aic%20upcoming%20 events/2010/isoc.aspx In Mid-October Stephen spoke on ‘Russian and Ukrainian Cybercrime in Australia’ at the ISOC Ian Wells and David Kimber, Australian Crime Commission, Conference in Melbourne. Stephen noted that when second and third from right international organised crime groups launched the PICT Coordinator of Learning and Teaching Dr. Ian first wide-scale phishing attacks in 2003, their targets Wells and Associate Lecturer Becky Mitchell attended weren’t the United States or the United Kingdom but the inaugural Australian Institute of Professional actually the customers of one of Australia’s major Intelligence Officers (AIPIO) “Forum”, held on the banks, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. His Gold Coast on 15 October. Dr. Wells was the keynote presentation was subsequently covered in a feature speaker, delivering a presentation on “best practice article in the e-magazine Computerworld: The Voice within intelligence”. The day included a half-day of IT Management (http://www.computerworld.com. seminar of real-world intelligence case studies. au/article/365585/commonwealth_bank_served_ Other speakers included David Kimber from the training_ground_global_phishing_attacks/.) Australian Crime Commission regarding the ACC Intelligence Fusion Project, a representative from the AFP presenting a Child Protection case study, a Queensland Police representative discussing the Evolution of Criminal Intelligence, Janet Evans 6 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

from the ARC Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security presenting her research on what makes an effective intelligence analyst, and a BAE Systems representative discussing Data Fusion in International Law Enforcement.

Global Futures Forum (GFF), General Meeting, Singapore, October 2010 Brigadier (retd) Vince Williams and Associate Lecturer Rebecca Mitchell represented PICT at a recent GFF General Meeting held in Singapore. The title of the meeting was “Building Resilience in the Face of Rebecca Mitchell, Professor Kumar Ramakrishna and Vince Future Shocks.” Williams The GFF describes itself as “a multinational, Professor S. Jayakumar, Singapore’s Senior Minister multidisciplinary intelligence community that and Coordinating Minister for National Security, works at the unclassified level to identify and make opened the General Meeting and provided a sense of emerging transnational threats. Its primary thorough outline of the four major trends facing goal is to foster the collaborative development the globalized world (the multi-polar compact, the of insight and foresight through the exchange of continued threat of violent, extremist, religious different perspectives.” The GFF achieves its primary fundamentalism; climate change and the security goal by establishing a number of communities of scarce resources). He outlined what initiatives of interest (COI), which address issues of specific Singapore had taken to address these trends concern to GFF member states. These COI conduct including establishing a Centre for Strategic Futures their business at general meetings, COI specific and forming a whole of government Strategic meetings and through the GFF website. COI include Futures Network in order to develop “resilience the following substantive topics: Radicalization and frameworks, structures and processes.” The General Counter Terrorism, Illicit Trafficking, Emerging and Meeting itself was conducted as a series of Panel Disruptive Technologies, Strategic Foresight and Meetings, break out meetings, parallel COI sessions Warning, Practice and Organization of Intelligence, and parallel sessions with keynote addresses at Proliferation and Human and Natural Resource formal functions. Security. While in Singapore attending the Global Futures The US Centre of Excellence for National Security Forum, Becky Mitchell also met with research (CENS) organized the General Meeting, with support analysts at Rohan Gunaratna’s International Centre from the National Security Coordination Secretariat for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (NSCS), the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. (ICPVTR) at Nanyang Technological University for Department of Homeland Security, and the GFF an afternoon of briefings. The briefings included Steering Group. The hosts of the meeting were the an “Introduction to the ICPVTR”, “Political Violence Singapore Government and the S. Rajaratnam School and Extremism in Southeast Asia”, “Threats to the of International Studies, Nanyang Univerity, headed Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in Pakistan” principally by PICT’s CATR colleague Professor Kumar and “Terrorist Rehabilitation in Singapore.” Ramakrishna. Notable attendees at the GFF included Sir David Omand (King’s College London), Ms Melissa Applegate (National Intelligence Officer for Warning from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence) and Professor Stephen Flynn (President, US Centre for National Policy). 7 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

Hong Kong Independent Commission Executive Director, CACS, chaired a half-day meeting Against Corruption, Conference on of academics attending the Conference to explore Collaborative Governance and Integrity ideas for anti-corruption research and collaboration, Management, September 2010 - a report in which I also participated. It is not feasible to from Adjunct Professor John McFarlane. summarise all the issues that came out of this At the invitation of Mr conference, but the following points appeared to me Gerry Osborn, Executive to be of special significance: Director, Centre of Anti- -Corruption is becoming increasingly recognised as Corruption Studies (CACS), a major social, economic and criminal problem by within the Hong Kong many countries. The entry into force of the United Independent Commission Nations Convention Against Corruption in 2005 has Against Corruption (ICAC), provided a very useful guide for all countries seeking Adjunct Professor John to eliminate the scourge of corruption and abuse of McFarlane attended a authority in their own countries. Conference on -China is clearly taking corruption very seriously and Collaborative Governance is introducing a number of initiatives, many of them and Integrity Management, based on ICAC experience, to deal with this problem. held at ICAC Headquarters in Hong Kong. The CACS China claims that is anxious to develop a fair and was founded in April 2009 to provide “resources for efficient administration. the study and analysis of issues pertaining to the fight against corruption in Hong Kong and internationally.” The objective of this conference was to “examine the way various jurisdictions approach integrity issues within government institutions and the role played by different oversight bodies within a particular jurisdiction; identify and discuss any generic changes in behaviour of public employees; and examine whether there have been amendments in the law or imaginative use of existing laws to Mr Gerry Warner, Executive Director, Centre of Anti- accommodate a broader range of offences Corruption Studies, ICAC; A/Professor John McFarlane, PICT; committed by public employees.” Dr Timothy Tong Hin Ming, Commissioner, ICAC; Mr Ryan Wong Sai Chiu, Director of Investigations (Government This was an extremely interesting and well- Sector), ICAC; Deputy Commissioner Tim Godwin, Chief Operating Officer, Metropolitan Police, UK conducted conference. The papers delivered, the Q and A sessions, and the out of session discussions -China has recently introduced a Code of Conduct were all valuable from the perspective of expanding for Building a Clean Government which is now being our understanding of the nature and impact implemented to prevent corruption. of corruption in the public sector, and various measures in place to deal with this problem. ICAC -The recent revelations of corruption and malpractice Hong Kong is an extremely effective and interesting by a number of members of the British Parliament organization, which has had a profound impact on have not only led to a loss of public confidence corruption in Hong Kong. It is a model for other in politicians, but more positively, has led to the countries to emulate, including Australia, when introduction of an MP’s Code of Conduct and the establishing their own anti-corruption agencies and establishment of an independent body to oversight devising appropriate local strategies to deal with this future alleged infringements in this area. threat. -There is serious concern in the UK law enforcement In addition, on 18 September, Mr Gerry Osborne, community about the impact of the forthcoming 8 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

cuts to the police budgets. The cuts could be as Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP). We much as 30% over the next five years. This will went around the room inviting each representative inevitably lead to the retrenchment of a substantial to nominate the three or four transnational crime number of police officers just at a time when the types that most concerned his or her country. As a terrorist threats from both jihadi-inspired terrorists result, we were able to come up with an agreed list and a resurgence of terrorist activities by dissident of nineteen, roughly prioritized “crime types”, which elements of the Irish republican movement are then became our menu for policy development assessed as serious threats to security. to counter the emerging regional transnational crime threats. Corruption was not listed amongst -In the US, the Obama Administration takes the these nineteen crime types, and when I suggested appointment of members of the Administration that consideration should be given to corruption, very seriously, and unless cleared by the Office of you could have heard the sucking of teeth from Government Ethics, the nomination will not go Singapore to Sydney. No way, they said, that is an forward for Senate confirmation. internal matter! Well, not any longer. -As a State Party to the United Nations Convention Over the last few decades, increasing effort has been Against Corruption, 2005, the Commonwealth given to devising means to counter the scourge of Government should establish a Commonwealth corruption. The International Chamber of Commerce Anti-Corruption Agency, appropriately empowered, Rules of Conduct, first issued in 1977; the OECD to proactively investigate and, where appropriate, Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign prosecute, members of the Australian Parliament and Officials in International Business Transactions, their staff, the lobby industry and Commonwealth adopted in November 1997; and a number of departments and agencies, which may be involved other valuable global and regional anti-corruption in corrupt or related behaviour. The Agency should initiatives have all contributed to an environment in also have a public education role in relation to which corruption in now very much on the agenda, damage caused by corruption. The Agency should and is recognized as a potential threat to global, have the following powers: coercive information- regional and national sovereignty and stability. gathering hearings and notices; telecommunications interception and data access; electronic surveillance; This led to the development of the United Nations controlled operations and assumed identities; search Convention Against Corruption which entered in to warrants, and; scrutiny of financial transaction force in December 2005 and has been ratified by records. more than 145 countries, including Australia. In spite of the lack of coercive powers, this instrument Recognising the Importance of is a major step forward for a number of reasons: It Corruption: The Inauguration complemented the important initiatives generated of the International Anti- by the UN Convention Against Transnational Corruption Academy Organised Crime, and its three Protocols; It was the first legally binding international anti- Adjunct Professor John McFarlane corruption instrument, which obliged its State Recognising the nature and importance of Parties to implement into domestic law a wide corruption in its various forms – bribery, extortion, range of measures which have both domestic and nepotism, embezzlement, and so on – is a very international implications. recent phenomenon. In February 1997 in Singapore, However, the study of the phenomenon of I had the honour of chairing a regional working corruption is still very limited, so we still have a long group comprising some 14 countries, all of which way to go in understanding how good governance, were concerned about the emerging threat of economic stability, sovereign state interests, and transnational crime. The working group was corruption relate to each other. Fortunately, one established under the aegis of the Council for useful initiative was taken recently in Vienna to 9 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

contribute to closing this gap. On 2 September other relevant regional and international treaties and 2010, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, conventions. In doing so it will observe geographical Ban Ki-Moon, opened the Inaugural Conference of and cultural diversity, and seek broad partnerships an International Anti-Corruption Academy (IACA) in with public and private sector institutions, including Vienna in front of some 800 ministers, ambassadors, academia, civil society and NGOs. officials, members of international organizations, non-government organizations, the corporate Afghanistan and the Uruzgan sector, academics and other invited guests from dimension 110 countries. Unfortunately there was no official Australian representation at the conference - two Adjunct Professor Clive Williams Australians attended in their private capacity: Mr Much of the recent debate Barry O’Keefe, a former head of the New South Wales about Afghanistan has Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), been misleading or and the author. reflective of wishful The Academy, which is located in a beautifully thinking on the part of refurbished 17th century building in Laxenburg, both the Gillard just outside Vienna, is jointly sponsored by the government and the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (“as the Opposition. A common guardian of the United Nations Convention Against claim is that we need to be in Afghanistan to stop it Corruption”), the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) from becoming a safe haven for al-Qaeda. The and the Government of the Republic of Austria, prospect of al-Qaeda re-establishing itself there with support from the International Criminal Police seems low, and why would it need to, when it can Organisation (INTERPOL). operate much more effectively from Pakistan or Yemen/Somalia, and North Africa? South East Asia’s extremists are unlikely to want to go to Afghanistan for training when they can do so more conveniently in Indonesia or the southern Philippines. The complexities of Afghanistan are exemplified by the situation in Uruzgan (or Oruzgan) Province, where we have our major Australian Defence Force (ADF) deployment. Uruzgan is about ten times the size of the ACT, with a population of approximately 350,000, mainly Pashtun. More than 97% of the population lives in rural areas. The literacy rate for males is 10% and females 5%. Singesar village in Uruzgan is the birthplace of Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar. In brief, the Academy will serve as a centre of excellence for anti-corruption research, degree- Because of the geography of the province, which based learning and the development of policies is divided by a mountain range, the “Kandahari” and procedures to prevent and combat corruption. Taliban’s eastern and western networks reportedly This will involve internationally recognised scholars have little contact, other than through the Quetta and professionals to provide hands-on instruction, Shura in Pakistan. The reality on the ground in peer-to-peer training and investigative assistance, Uruzgan, as elsewhere, is that local areas are whilst integrating geographical, cultural and gender dominated by local leaders who may or may not diversity in its activities. The Academy will also assist represent the Karzai government’s interests, and may countries with the implementation of UNCAC and or may not be affiliated to the Taliban. 10 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

When the Taliban were defeated after 9/11, important part in local politics. In Uruzgan there most of the local Taliban made the traditional is traditional enmity between the Pashtun Durrani accommodations with the winning side - which and Ghilzai tribes. But there is also enmity between meant surrendering their weapons and being some of the Durrani sub-tribes. The Durrani allowed to return home. However some of the local Popalzai have most influence because of their links leaders in Uruzgan, who had been ousted by the to fellow Popalzai, President Hamid Karzai. Much Taliban in the mid-1990s, saw this as an opportunity of the local violence is due to competition for to seize power again and take their revenge. This power and resources. Other factors that may affect in turn led to many former Taliban rejoining the local alliances including marriage, shared combat insurgency in order to survive. experience, religious affiliations, and narcotics trafficking interests. Today in Uruzgan the Taliban have set up a shadow government with their own administrators The strongman in Uruzgan is Jan Mohammad Khan, and judges. The activities of Taliban leaders are another Popalzai. He controls a power network well monitored by auditors from Quetta and if abuses known for its brutality and involvement in narcotics. are reported by local villagers, the leaders are Jan Mohammad had been governor before the supposedly called to account. Taliban takeover in 1994. He was jailed by the Taliban and is strongly anti-Taliban. Hamid Karzai appointed Most of the legal disputes in Afghanistan are over him governor in early 2002, when he was given land. Under the government adjudication system, free rein to destroy rivals and appoint friends to key the outcome is likely to favour the party that can positions. He was replaced as governor in March pay the most. By contrast, Taliban judges are not 2006 at the insistence of the Dutch commander financially motivated and are said to be fair in their because of his human rights abuses (including judgements. The down side is that the Taliban the rumoured murder of one of his wives) and still come with their repressive religious baggage corruption, but he continues to exercise power and medieval mindset about female rights. But in behind the scenes. Jan Mohammad loyalists hold Uruzgan, a fundamentalist Islamic lifestyle based key government positions in Uruzgan. The current on Sharia law is more in line with local custom than acting governor is Khodai Rahim Khan, a relative of would be the case in Kabul or most other Afghan Jan Mohammad. cities. Another relative, Matiullah Khan, runs a powerful The “new” Taliban can still be brutal in their 2,000 strong militia that protects the highway exercise of power. They will kill anyone at a local between Kandahar city and Uruzgan’s capital Tarin level believed to be cooperating with the Karzai Kowt, a key logistics supply route for foreign forces, government or coalition forces. Unsurprisingly, including the Australians. Matiullah Khan is said therefore Afghans who expect the Taliban to prevail to earn at least US$ 1,700 per truck to ensure each in the longer term are cautious about assisting the convoy arrives at its destination safely. With at least government or Australian forces. In Uruzgan, the 200 trucks a month using the road, it is a profitable Taliban now operate in smaller groups because sideline. coalition air strikes caused heavy losses to larger concentrations. The Taliban are now more reliant Further complicating the local power mix is the on sniping and the use of IEDs. They know that involvement of the International Security Assistance foreign forces are on the way out and there is not Force (ISAF), Afghan National Army (ANA), Afghan much point in mounting costly large-scale attacks National Police (ANP) and National Department of when time is on their side. They also understand Security (NDS). Suspected Taliban fighters detained the impact in Western countries of causing a steady by the ADF are handed over to the NDS which has a stream of Western casualties. reputation for torturing and mistreating detainees. Tribal affiliations and feuds continue to play an Our main Australian focus in Uruzgan is on 11 VOLUME 6, 2010 PICT UPLINK NEWSLETTER

reconstruction, and training and mentoring the ANA rights abuses, particularly against women. More 4th Brigade. The reconstruction aspect is generally broadly, security prospects for the south and east of welcomed by everyone, including possibly the Afghanistan do not look favourable. The likelihood Taliban. On a visit to Kandahar Province I found that of US and other ISAF combat forces leaving local Taliban fighters were working for a Canadian prematurely, due to the financial and human cost of military reconstruction team building roads, which counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, could mean that everyone there saw as beneficial. The workers were our exit strategy will be determined for us. being paid US$ 10 a day, which was more than the When we eventually draw down our forces in Taliban commanders were paying them. The typically Uruzgan, we will also have to address the issue of Afghan arrangement was that the roads would not Afghans who have cooperated with us in Uruzgan be tarred over because that would make it more coming to Australia as asylum seekers. difficult for the Taliban to later plant improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This is an edited version of an article that first appeared in the Canberra Times, 27 October, 2010. The ADF and Australian Federal Police (AFP) have a deservedly good reputation for providing appropriate training to Third World forces internationally, but our training support in Uruzgan faces unusual difficulties. The high level of ANA desertion (as high as 40% of establishment strength), and the vulnerability of the ANP to Taliban pressure (several policemen die every day in Afghanistan), mean that it is difficult to achieve acceptable military Contact Details: or policing standards. In any case, perhaps a more Level Two, Building Y3A pressing requirement than police training is to sort Macquarie University NSW 2109 out the justice system. (Afghans joke about the UN Ph: +61 2 9850 1420 giving the Italians the job of reforming the justice Fax: +61 2 9850 1440 system when they have possibly the most flawed Email: [email protected] system in Europe.) Web: www.pict.mq.edu.au There have been upbeat statements from the Australian Government about the improving readiness status of the 4th Brigade, but the ANA tendency elsewhere in Afghanistan is to re-assign soldiers once they have been trained to provinces closer to Kabul. If this is happening in Uruzgan, as seems likely, it means that the 4th Brigade may never be able to secure the province without outside help. There is insufficient information in the public domain to form a judgement about the effectiveness of ADF Special Forces operations - although they have apparently disrupted the Taliban’s activities and had an effect on Taliban morale, and created time and space for our other activities. It will take political manoeuvring and a long- term Australian commitment to achieve stability in Uruzgan. Inevitably, local governance will continue to involve crime, corruption and human