CURRICULUM VITAE Office Address: Economics Department Occidental
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Brazilian Inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: an Empirical Investigation
Brazilian Inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: An Empirical Investigation Eurilton Araujo Ibmec Business School Alexandre Cunha Ibmec Business School RESUMO A possibilidade de que políticas de combate à inflação possuam efeitos negativos sobre a atividade econômica real e o crescimento é um assunto recorrente no Brasil. Neste traba- lho foram utilizados dados anuais para se estudar o comportamento da inflação e do PIB brasileiro de 1850 até 2000. Adotaram-se técnicas econométricas e da literatura de ciclos econômicos para se estudar o comportamento dessas duas variáveis nos domínios do tempo e da freqüência. Os resultados sugerem que as duas séries não são positivamente relacio- nadas. Assim sendo, a evidência empírica aparentemente indica que a opção de abrandar a política de combate à inflação com intuito de não prejudicar a atividade econômica real e o crescimento não está disponível para os condutores da política econômica brasileira. PALAVRAS-CHAVE inflação, crescimento, ciclos econômicos ABSTRACT The question of whether a policy that leads to low inflation can hamper real economic activity and growth is a recurrent one in Brazil. In this essay we used yearly data to study the behavior of Brazilian inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000. We used econometric and business cycles techniques to study the behavior of these variables in time and frequency domains. The results suggest the absence of positive comovement between the series. Thus, the empirical evidence apparently implies that the option of easing up on inflation to avoid a slowdown in real economic activity and growth is not available to Brazilian policy makers. KEY WORDS inflation, growth, business cycles JEL Classification C32, E31, E32 EST. -
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Center for Institutional Reform and the Informal Sector
CENTER FOR INSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE INFORMAL SECTOR University of Maryland at College Park Center Office: IRIS Center, 2105 Morrill Hall, College Park, MD 20742 Telephone (301) 405-3110 l Fax (301) 405-3020 Financial Markets and Industrial Development: A Comparative Study of Government Regulation Financial Innovation, and Industrial Structure in Brazil and Mexico, 1840-1930 November 1994 Stephen Haber Working Paper No. 143 This publication was made possible through support provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development, under Cooperative Agreement No. DHR-0015-A-00-0031-00. The views and analyses in the paper do not necessarily reflect the official position of the IRIS Center or the U.S.A.I.D. Author: Stephen Haber, Department of History, Stanford University, Standford, CA. IRIS Summary Working Paper #143 Financial Markets and Industrial Development: A Comparative Study of Government Regulation, Financial Innovation and Industrial Structure in Brazil and Mexico 1840-1930. Stephen Haber Department of History Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 This paper examines the experiences of Mexico and Brazil in the creation of modern banks and stock exchanges during the early stages of industrialization. It addresses three interrelated questions. First, what were the differences in the development of financial intermediaries in both countries. Second< what- were the consequences for the structure and rate of growth of industry of these differences in institutional development? Third, what were the sources of these differences in institutional development? Why did Brazil develop a modern stock and bond market during the 1890s and Mexico did not? In order to answer these questions, the pc3pe.K fucuses cl11 the history of textile mill finance in both countries. -
On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/moor75-2 Publication Date: 1975 Chapter Title: On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations Chapter Author: John R. Meyer, Daniel H. Weinberg Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7408 Chapter pages in book: (p. 43 - 78) Moo5 2 'fl the 'if at fir JOHN R. MEYER National Bureau of Economic on, Research and Harvard (Jriiversity drawfi 'Ces DANIEL H. WEINBERG National Bureau of Economic iliOns Research and'ale University 'Clical Ihit onth Economic orith On the Classification of 1975 0 Fluctuations and ABSTRACT:Attempts to classify economic fluctuations havehistori- cally focused mainly on the identification of turning points,that is, so-called peaks and troughs. In this paper we report on anexperimen- tal use of multivariate discriminant analysis to determine afour-phase classification of the business cycle, using quarterly andmonthly U.S. economic data for 1947-1973. Specifically, weattempted to discrimi- nate between phases of (1) recession, (2) recovery, (3)demand-pull, and (4) stagflation. Using these techniques, we wereable to identify two complete four-phase cycles in the p'stwarperiod: 1949 through 1953 and 1960 through 1969. ¶ As a furher test,extrapolations were made to periods occurring before February 1947 andalter September 1973. Using annual data for the period 1926 -1951, a"backcasting" to the prewar U.S. economy suggests that the n.ajordifference between prewar and postwar business cycles isthe onii:sion of the stagflation phase in the former. -
The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented?
Conference on Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Transmission, and Recovery Paper Number 1 The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented? Michael D. Bordo Professor of Economics, Rutgers University, and National Bureau of Economic Research and John S. Landon-Lane Associate Professor of Economics, Rutgers University 1. Introduction A financial crisis in the US in 2007 spread to Europe and led to a recession across the world in 2007-2009. Have we seen patterns like this before or is the recent experience novel? This paper compares the recent crisis and recent recession to earlier international financial crises and global recessions. First we review the dimensions of the recent crisis. We then present some historical narrative on earlier global crises in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The description of earlier global crises leads to a sense of déjà vu. We next demarcate several chronologies of the incidence of various kinds of crises: banking, currency and debt crises and combinations of them across a large number of countries for the period from 1880 to 2010. These chronologies come from earlier work of Bordo with Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel and Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria and with Chris Meissner (Bordo et al (2001), Bordo and Meissner ( 2007)) , from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s recent book (2009) and studies by the IMF (Laeven and Valencia 2009,2010).1 Based on these chronologies we look for clusters of crisis events which occur in a number of countries and across continents. These we label global financial crises. 1 There is considerable overlap in the different chronologies as Reinhart and Rogoff incorporated many of our dates and my coauthors and I used IMF and World Bank chronologies for the period since the early 1970s. -
History of the International Monetary System and Its Potential Reformulation
University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Supervised Undergraduate Student Research Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects and Creative Work 5-2010 History of the international monetary system and its potential reformulation Catherine Ardra Karczmarczyk University of Tennessee, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_chanhonoproj Part of the Economic History Commons, Economic Policy Commons, and the Political Economy Commons Recommended Citation Karczmarczyk, Catherine Ardra, "History of the international monetary system and its potential reformulation" (2010). Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_chanhonoproj/1341 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Supervised Undergraduate Student Research and Creative Work at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. History of the International Monetary System and its Potential Reformulation Catherine A. Karczmarczyk Honors Thesis Project Dr. Anthony Nownes and Dr. Anne Mayhew 02 May 2010 Karczmarczyk 2 HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL REFORMATION Introduction The year 1252 marked the minting of the very first gold coin in Western Europe since Roman times. Since this landmark, the international monetary system has evolved and transformed itself into the modern system that we use today. The modern system has its roots beginning in the 19th century. In this thesis I explore four main ideas related to this history. First is the evolution of the international monetary system. -
Mergers, Stagflation and the Logic of Globalization
6 Mergers, stagflation, and the logic of globalization* Jonathan JVitzan Introduction: three mysteries Corporate mergers, stagflation, and globalization are usually studied as separate phenomena, belonging to the fields of finance, economics, and international political economy, respectively. This chapter attempts to tie them together as integral facets of capital accumulation. Analyzed independently, all three phenomena appear problematic, even mysterious. Take mergers and acquisitions. These are now constantly in the news, and for a good reason. Over the past decade, their value reached unprecedented levels, surpassing for the first time in history that of newly created production capacity. Yet, despite their importance, mergers and acquisitions remain enigmatic. "Most mergers disappoint," writes Th Economist, "so why do firms keep merging?" (Anonymous 1998). According to the textbooks, there is no clear answer. Corporate merger remains one of the "ten mysteries of finance," a riddle for which there are many partial explanations but no overall theory (Brealey et al. 1992, ch. 36). Stagflation, although presently dormant, is equally embarrassing. Most main- stream economists believe that prices should increase when there is excess demand and overheating, but stagflation - a term coined by Samuelson (1 974) to denote the combination of slagnation and inj!?ahn- shows prices can also rise in the midst of unemployment and recession.' A similar difficulty arises with the oppo- site phenomenon of inflationless growth, such as the one experienced recently in the United States. The standard explanation rests on the disinflationary impact of accelerating productivity, although that scarcely solves the problem. The fact is that even faster efficiency gains have often failed to tame inflation in the past, so why is it that they succeed now? Frustrated, many economists seem to have finally thrown in the towel, suggesting that we now live in a "new economy" where the old rules simply no longer apply. -
Japanese Southward Expansion in the South Seas and Its Relations with Japanese Settlers in Papua and New Guinea, 1919-1940"
"Japanese Southward Expansion in the South Seas and its Relations with Japanese Settlers in Papua and New Guinea, 1919-1940" 著者 "IWAMOTO Hiromitsu" journal or 南太平洋研究=South Pacific Study publication title volume 17 number 1 page range 29-81 URL http://hdl.handle.net/10232/55 South Pacific Study Vol. 17, No. 1, 1996 29 Japanese Southward Expansion in the South Seas and its Relations with Japanese Settlers in Papua and New Guinea, 1919-1940 1) Hiromitsu IWAMOTO Abstract Japanese policies toward nan'yo (the South Seas) developed rapidly in the inter-war period (1919-1940). After the invasion in China in the early 1930s, trade-oriented nanshin (southward advancement) policies gradually gained aggressiveness, as the military began to influence making foreign policies. Behind this change, nanshin-ron (southward advancement theory) advocates provided ideological justification for the Japanese territorial expansion in the South Seas. In these circumstances, Japanese settlers in Papua and New Guinea were put in a peculiar position: the emergence of militaristic Japan probably stimulated their patriotism but it also endangered their presence because they were in the colony of Australia－the nation that traditionally feared invasion from the north. However, as the Australian government continued to restrict Japanese migration, numerically their presence became marginal. But, unproportional to their population, economically they prospered and consolidated their status as 'masters'(although not quite equal to their white counterparts) in the Australian colonial apparatus. In this paper, I shall analyse how this unique presence of the Japanese settlers developed, examining its relations with the Japanese expansion in the South Seas and the Australian policies that tried to counter the expansion. -
The Interwar Period
CONSEJERÍA DE EDUCACIÓN Dirección General de Participación e innovación Educativa Identificación del material AICLE TÍTULO The interwar period NIVEL LINGÜÍSTICO A.2.2. SEGÚN MCER IDIOMA Inglés ÁREA / MATERIA Ciencias Sociales (Geografía e Historia) NÚCLEO TEMÁTICO Historia del mundo contemporáneo La unidad analiza el período que va desde 1917 hasta 1939 contextualizando el tema en la Alemania de entreguerras. El recorrido se detiene especialmente en la Revolución Rusa, los felices años veinte, la crisis de 1929, y el auge de los GUIÓN TEMÁTICO fascismos en los años treinta. Se hace hincapié en la situación de las mujeres a lo largo del período, así como en la violación de de derechos humanos llevada a cabo en la Alemania nazi. FORMATO Material didáctico en formato PDF CORRESPONDENCIA 4º de Educación Secundaria CURRICULAR AUTORÍA Antonio Rus Martínez La unidad requiere, al menos, de 11 sesiones para llevarse a cabo en su to- talidad: Sesión 1: Análisis del collage de la portada, actividades iniciales de motivación y bibliografía de Hitler. TEMPORALIZACIÓN Sesiones 2 y 3: La Revolución Rusa. APROXIMADA Sesiones 4, 5 y 6: Los años 20. Sesiones 7 y 8: Los años 30. Sesiones9 y 10: Proyecto. Sesion 11: What I have learned y Final activities. - Competencia en comunicación lingüística (uso del lenguaje tanto hablado como escrito) - Competencia digital y tratamiento de la información (realización del proyecto), COMPETENCIAS - Competencia social y ciudadana (toma de conciencia de la importancia del BÁSICAS sistema democrático - Competencia para la autonomía e iniciativa personal (desarrollo de un criterio propio y de un espíritu crítico ante los totalitarismos). La unidad está pensada para trabajarla en su conjunto, pero también con la OBSERVACIONES opción de hacer cada parte de forma independiente. -
Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past Or Being Condemned to Repeat It?
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DEFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: REMEMBERING THE PAST OR BEING CONDEMNED TO REPEAT IT? Michael D. Bordo Andrew Filardo Working Paper 10833 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10833 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2004 This paper was prepared for the 40th Panel Meeting of Economic Policy in Amsterdam (October 2004). The authors would like to thank Jeff Amato, Palle Andersen, Claudio Borio, Gauti Eggertsson, Gabriele Galati, Craig Hakkio, David Lebow and Goetz von Peter, Patrick Minford, Fernando Restoy, Lars Svensson, participants at the 3rd Annual BIS Conference as well as seminar participants at the Bank of Canada and the International Monetary Fund for helpful discussions and comments. We also thank Les Skoczylas and Arturo Macias Fernandez for expert assistance. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements or the National Bureau of Economic Research. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2004 by Michael D. Bordo and Andrew Filardo. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past or Being Condemned to Repeat It? Michael D. Bordo and Andrew Filardo NBER Working Paper No. 10833 October 2004 JEL No. E31, N10 ABSTRACT What does the historical record tell us about how to conduct monetary policy in a deflationary environment? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges. -
When the Periphery Became More Central: from Colonial Pact to Liberal Nationalism in Brazil and Mexico, 1800-1914 Steven Topik
When the Periphery Became More Central: From Colonial Pact to Liberal Nationalism in Brazil and Mexico, 1800-1914 Steven Topik Introduction The Global Economic History Network has concentrated on examining the “Great Divergence” between Europe and Asia, but recognizes that the Americas also played a major role in the development of the world economy. Ken Pomeranz noted, as had Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Karl Marx before him, the role of the Americas in supplying the silver and gold that Europeans used to purchase Asian luxury goods.1 Smith wrote about the great importance of colonies2. Marx and Engels, writing almost a century later, noted: "The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh ground for the rising bourgeoisie. The East-Indian and Chinese markets, the colonisation of America [north and south] trade with the colonies, ... gave to commerce, to navigation, to industry, an impulse never before known. "3 Many students of the world economy date the beginning of the world economy from the European “discovery” or “encounter” of the “New World”) 4 1 Ken Pomeranz, The Great Divergence , Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000:264- 285) 2 Adam Smith in An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776, rpt. Regnery Publishing, Washington DC, 1998) noted (p. 643) “The colony of a civilized nation which takes possession, either of a waste country or of one so thinly inhabited, that the natives easily give place to the new settlers, advances more rapidly to wealth and greatness than any other human society.” The Americas by supplying silver and “by opening a new and inexhaustible market to all the commodities of Europe, it gave occasion to new divisions of labour and improvements of art….The productive power of labour was improved.” p. -
38 Chapter 3 the Interwar Period, 1924
CHAPTER 3 THE INTERWAR PERIOD, 1924 - 1940 The newly created Army Industrial College graduated its first class of nine Army officers in June 1924. In the ensuing years of the interwar period, the College would grow and develop steadily, through enormously difficult economic times and the defining event of this era in the nation's history -- the Great Depression which lasted from 1929 to 1939. During these years, the country's industrial base (a central focus of study of the Industrial College) atrophied and unemployment reached unprecedented levels. In terms of international involvement, a decidedly isolationist mood enveloped the United States along with a concomitant lack of interest in all things military. Yet throughout this period, the Army Industrial College endured and actually began to come of age in size, scope, stature, and evolving mission as an important and unique educational institution within the armed forces. Donald Nelson referred to this era, and the Army Industrial College, in his 1946 book, The Arsenal of Democracy. Nelson, an executive Vice President at Sears Roebuck was selected by President Franklin Roosevelt in January 1942 to head the nation's powerful War Production Board (Goodwin, 1994, p. 315; Schwarz, 1981, p. 375). Of the inter-war period, Nelson (1946, p. 32) wrote: The biggest rifle manufacturing firm in the world...was swept away. Half-finished ships rusted and rotted because shipyards had gone out of business. The world's biggest merchant marine faded to a shadow of its former self. Machine gun plants and the beginnings of a promising military plane industry disappeared.