Bank Failures in Theory and History: the Great Depression and Other "Contagious" Events
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Network Risk and Key Players: a Structural Analysis of Interbank Liquidity∗
Network Risk and Key Players: A Structural Analysis of Interbank Liquidity∗ Edward Denbee Christian Julliard Ye Li Kathy Yuan June 4, 2018 Abstract We estimate the liquidity multiplier and individual banks' contribution to systemic liquidity risk in an interbank network using a structural model. Banks borrow liquid- ity from neighbours and update their valuation based on neighbours' actions. When the former (latter) motive dominates, the equilibrium exhibits strategic substitution (complementarity) of liquidity holdings, and a reduced (increased) liquidity multi- plier dampening (amplifying) shocks. Empirically, we find substantial and procyclical network-generated risks driven mostly by changes of equilibrium type rather than net- work topology. We identify the banks that generate most systemic risk and solve the planner's problem, providing guidance to macro-prudential policies. Keywords: financial networks; liquidity; interbank market; key players; systemic risk. ∗We thank the late Sudipto Bhattacharya, Yan Bodnya, Douglas Gale, Michael Grady, Charles Khan, Seymon Malamud, Farzad Saidi, Laura Veldkamp, Mark Watson, David Webb, Anne Wetherilt, Kamil Yilmaz, Peter Zimmerman, and seminar participants at the Bank of England, Cass Business School, Duisenberg School of Finance, Koc University, the LSE, Macro Finance Society annual meeting, the Stockholm School of Economics, and the WFA for helpful comments and discussions. Denbee (ed- [email protected]) is from the Bank of England; Julliard ([email protected]) and Yuan ([email protected]) are from the London School of Economics, SRC, and CEPR; Li ([email protected]) is from the Ohio State University. This research was started when Yuan was a senior Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England. -
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision Abstract Although bank supervision under the National Banking System exercised a light hand and panics were frequent, the cost of bank failures was minimal. Double liability induced shareholders to carefully monitor bank managers and voluntarily liquidate banks early if they appeared to be in trouble. Inducing more disclosure, marking assets to market, and ensuring prompt closure of insolvent national banks, the Comptroller of the Currency reinforced market discipline. The arrival of the Federal Reserve weakened this regime. Monetary policy decisions conflicted with the goal of financial stability and created moral hazard. The appearance of the Fed as an additional supervisor led to more “competition in laxity” among regulators and “regulatory arbitrage” by banks. When the Great Depression hit, policy-induced deflation and asset price volatility were misdiagnosed as failures of competition and market valuation. In response, the New Deal shifted to a regime of discretion-based supervision with forbearance. 100th Anniversary of the Jekyll Island Conference Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Eugene N. White Rutgers University and NBER Department of Economics New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA Phone: 732-932-7363 Fax: 732-932-7416 [email protected] October 2010 “An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.”—the title of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 [emphasis added] While the formation and development of the Federal Reserve has been intensively studied, histories of the Fed, from Milton Friedman and Anna J. -
The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen
The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen Yun [email protected] MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE Volume 5, Number 1 Journal for Global Business and Community http://jgbc.fiu.edu Consortium for Undergraduate International Business Education The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun In his book, The Alchemists, Neil Irwin (2013) follows the history of the recent financial crisis of 2007, examining the difficult decisions made and the bold actions carried out by three central bankers: Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Irwin not only justifies the unconventional methods such as quantitative easing, that was used by these three men, but applauds them, for “peace and prosperity… require people like Bernanke, King, and Trichet to safeguard them, often by doing things that are widely unpopular” (p.388). He accepts the expanding role of the central banks as a necessary measure given the changing times. He believes “central banks [should not] let precedent or politics stop them from doing what they need to do to keep their economies healthy” at all costs even, if it means bailing out investment banks, telling Parliament how to manage its books, and propping up financially troubled economies (p.390). Irwin believes we shouldn’t expect perfection, but rather progress, and trust intelligent men to handle economic crises and manage the economies in ways that they best see fit because they are so “technically complex that we can’t put them to a vote” (p.390). -
Testimony of Jamie Dimon Chairman and CEO, Jpmorgan Chase & Co
Testimony of Jamie Dimon Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission January 13, 2010 Chairman Angelides, Vice-Chairman Thomas, and Members of the Commission, my name is Jamie Dimon, and I am Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. I appreciate the invitation to appear before you today. The charge of this Commission, to examine the causes of the financial crisis and the collapse of major financial institutions, is of paramount importance, and it will not be easy. The causes of the crisis and its implications are numerous and complex. If we are to learn from this crisis moving forward, we must be brutally honest about the causes and develop an understanding of them that is realistic, and is not – as we are too often tempted – overly simplistic. The FCIC’s contribution to this debate is critical as policymakers seek to modernize our financial regulatory structure, and I hope my participation will further the Commission’s mission. The Commission has asked me to address a number of topics related to how our business performed during the crisis, as well as changes implemented as a result of the crisis. Some of these matters are addressed at greater length in our last two annual reports, which I am attaching to this testimony. While the last year and a half was one of the most challenging periods in our company’s history, it was also one of our most remarkable. Throughout the financial crisis, JPMorgan Chase never posted a quarterly loss, served as a safe haven for depositors, worked closely with the federal government, and remained an active lender to consumers, small and large businesses, government entities and not-for-profit organizations. -
12. the Recent Crisis – and Recovery – of the Argentine Economy: Some Elements and Background
12. The Recent Crisis – and Recovery – of the Argentine Economy: Some Elements and Background Arturo O’Connell ______________________________________________________________ INTRODUCTION The Argentine crisis could be examined as one more crisis of the developing countries – admittedly a star pupil that had received praise from many sides – hit by the vagaries of the international financial markets and/or its own policy mistakes. To a great extent that is a line of argument that could provide some illumination. However, it could be even more interesting to examine the peculiarities of the Argentine experience – always in that general context –that have made it such an intractable case for normal medication. Not only would it be best to pin down those peculiarities and their consequences, but also it is necessary to understand that they were not just a result of the eccentricities of some people in some far-off Southern end of the world. Finance, both external and domestic, is one essential part of the story. Argentina became one of the most highly liberalized financial systems in the world. Capital could freely flow in and out without even clear registration demands; big firms profited from such a system by being able to finance themselves – at cheaper financial costs – in the international market at the same time that wealthy families chose to hold a significant proportion of their liquid assets abroad. The domestic banking system was opened to foreign entry to the point of not requiring the habitual reciprocity with third countries and a large and increasing proportion of the operations became denominated in foreign currency. To build up confidence in the local currency a hard peg to the US dollar was instituted by law rather than by Executive Order and the Central Bank became a mere currency board issuing currency at the legally determined rate only against foreign exchange. -
On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/moor75-2 Publication Date: 1975 Chapter Title: On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations Chapter Author: John R. Meyer, Daniel H. Weinberg Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7408 Chapter pages in book: (p. 43 - 78) Moo5 2 'fl the 'if at fir JOHN R. MEYER National Bureau of Economic on, Research and Harvard (Jriiversity drawfi 'Ces DANIEL H. WEINBERG National Bureau of Economic iliOns Research and'ale University 'Clical Ihit onth Economic orith On the Classification of 1975 0 Fluctuations and ABSTRACT:Attempts to classify economic fluctuations havehistori- cally focused mainly on the identification of turning points,that is, so-called peaks and troughs. In this paper we report on anexperimen- tal use of multivariate discriminant analysis to determine afour-phase classification of the business cycle, using quarterly andmonthly U.S. economic data for 1947-1973. Specifically, weattempted to discrimi- nate between phases of (1) recession, (2) recovery, (3)demand-pull, and (4) stagflation. Using these techniques, we wereable to identify two complete four-phase cycles in the p'stwarperiod: 1949 through 1953 and 1960 through 1969. ¶ As a furher test,extrapolations were made to periods occurring before February 1947 andalter September 1973. Using annual data for the period 1926 -1951, a"backcasting" to the prewar U.S. economy suggests that the n.ajordifference between prewar and postwar business cycles isthe onii:sion of the stagflation phase in the former. -
Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depresstion? by Peter Temin
BOOK REVIEWS Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Review Essay by Arthur E. Gandolfi and James R. Lothian* Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?, by Peter Temin. New York: W. W. Norton, 1976 vi +201 pp. $8.95 (cloth); $3.95 (paper). "Given the magnitude and importance of this event [the Great Depression], it is surprising," states Peter Temin, "how little we know about its causes" (pp. xi, xii). In particular, he says, we have no explanation of why the Depression became so severe. Temin reviews the two major competing explanations, which he calls the "money hypothesis" and the "spending hypothesis." Temin associates the money hypothesis almost exclusively with the account Friedman and Schwartz give in [5, chap. 7]. In their view, it was the banking panics of the 1930s and the subsequent failure of the Federal Reserve to counteract the contractionary monetary effects of those episodes that accounted for the depth and duration of the Depression. The spending hypothesis is the term Temin gives to the explanations advanced by economists working within the Keynesian income- expenditure tradition, who emphasized decreases in various forms of autonomous expenditures as the cause of the Depression. Temin finds both the money and con- ventional spending explanations wanting and goes on to develop one of his own. It is a variant of the spending hypothesis that identifies an autonomous shift of the consumption function as the crucial factor. What's wrong with Friedman and Schwartz's explanation, according to Temin, is that it assumes what should have been tested—the direction of causation between money and income. -
Investment Strategy
Equity Research MAY 2006 Investment Strategy Approaching an Inflection Point in the Bubble Cycle THERE ARE A NUMBER OF COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS REGARDING ASSET BUBBLES. Bubbles are serial in nature and are often broad events. Contrary to popular belief, neither the bond market nor energy stocks is currently experiencing a bubble episode. Yet, in our opinion, one market that is in a bubble is real estate! THE UNWINDING OF THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE COULD BROADLY IMPACT FINANCIAL MARKETS FOR YEARS TO COME. The speed with which the housing bubble deflates will have important implications for household spending and could determine how quickly and strongly the Fed increases liquidity again. THE END OF ONE BUBBLE OFTEN TRIGGERS THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER. A bubble-induced economic slowdown oftentimes leads the Fed to once again inject liquidity into the economy. This phenomenon typically acts as a trigger that paves the way for the beginning of a new asset bubble. AREAS WORTH CONSIDERING AS POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES ARE ALTERNATIVE FUELS, NANOTECH, AND HEALTH CARE. These are just a few potential areas that could see continued interest generated. While any of these could end up as a disappointment, a significant technological breakthrough at a time when the bubble environment is fertile could be quite profitable. Research Analysts François Trahan Kurt D. Walters Caroline S. Portny (212) 272-2103 (212) 272-2498 (212) 272-5236 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Bear Stearns does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. -
The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented?
Conference on Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Transmission, and Recovery Paper Number 1 The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented? Michael D. Bordo Professor of Economics, Rutgers University, and National Bureau of Economic Research and John S. Landon-Lane Associate Professor of Economics, Rutgers University 1. Introduction A financial crisis in the US in 2007 spread to Europe and led to a recession across the world in 2007-2009. Have we seen patterns like this before or is the recent experience novel? This paper compares the recent crisis and recent recession to earlier international financial crises and global recessions. First we review the dimensions of the recent crisis. We then present some historical narrative on earlier global crises in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The description of earlier global crises leads to a sense of déjà vu. We next demarcate several chronologies of the incidence of various kinds of crises: banking, currency and debt crises and combinations of them across a large number of countries for the period from 1880 to 2010. These chronologies come from earlier work of Bordo with Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel and Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria and with Chris Meissner (Bordo et al (2001), Bordo and Meissner ( 2007)) , from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s recent book (2009) and studies by the IMF (Laeven and Valencia 2009,2010).1 Based on these chronologies we look for clusters of crisis events which occur in a number of countries and across continents. These we label global financial crises. 1 There is considerable overlap in the different chronologies as Reinhart and Rogoff incorporated many of our dates and my coauthors and I used IMF and World Bank chronologies for the period since the early 1970s. -
PUBLIC SECTION BNP Paribas 165(D)
PUBLIC SECTION OCTOBER 1, 2014 PUBLIC SECTION BNP Paribas 165(d) Resolution Plan Bank of the West IDI Resolution Plan This document contains forward-looking statements. BNPP may also make forward-looking statements in its audited annual financial statements, in its interim financial statements, in press releases and in other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about BNPP’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and therefore undue reliance should not be placed on them. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and BNPP undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. CTOBER O 1, 2014 PUBLIC SECTION TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................4 1.1 Overview of BNP Paribas ....................................................................................... 4 1.1.1 Retail Banking ....................................................................................... 5 1.1.2 Corporate and Investment Banking ....................................................... 5 1.1.3 Investment Solutions ............................................................................. 6 1.2 Overview of BNPP’s US Presence ........................................................................ -
Bank Resolution Concepts, Trade-Offs, and Changes in Practices
Phoebe White and Tanju Yorulmazer Bank Resolution Concepts, Trade-offs, and Changes in Practices • As the 2007-08 financial crisis demonstrated, 1. Introduction the failure or near-failure of banks entails heavy costs for customers, the financial During the recent crisis, some of the world’s largest and sector, and the overall economy. most prominent financial institutions failed or nearly failed, requiring intervention and assistance from regulators. Measures • Methods used to resolve failing banks range included extended access to lender-of-last-resort facilities, debt from private-sector solutions such as mergers guarantees, and injection of capital to mitigate the distress.1 and acquisitions to recapitalization through Chart 1 shows some of the largest financial institutions the use of public funds. that failed and/or received government support during the recent crisis. As we can see, these institutions were • The feasibility and cost of these methods large and systemically important. For example, for a brief will depend on whether the bank failure is period in 2009, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was the idiosyncratic or part of a systemic crisis, and largest company by both assets and liabilities in the world. on factors such as the size, complexity, and Table 1 summarizes the interventions and resolutions of interconnectedness of the institution in distress. major financial institutions that experienced difficulties during the recent crisis. The chart and the table indicate • This study proposes a simple analytical the extraordinary levels of distress throughout the system framework—useful to firms and regulators and the unprecedented range of actions taken by resolution alike—for assessing these issues and determining the optimal resolution policy 1 For a discussion of the disruptions and the policy responses during the in the case of particular bank failures.