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Voters’ Victory?

New Zealand’s First Election Under
Proportional Representation

Edited by
JACK VOWLES PETER AIMER
SUSAN BANDUCCI
AND JEFFREY KARP

AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY PRESS

First published 1998 AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY PRESS University of Auckland Private Bag 92019 Auckland

© The contributors, 1998 This book is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism, or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced by any process without the prior permission of Auckland University Press.

ISBN 1 86940 180 8 Printed by Wright and Carman, Welington

CONTENTS

Tables and Figures Preface vi xi
1

23456789
Expectations of Change

Jack Vowles, Peter Aimer,   Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp

1
12
Countdown to MMP

Jack V o wles

A New Post-MMP Party System?

Jack V o wles

28
Old and New Party Choices

Peter Aimer

48
Issues, Leaders, and the Campaign

Richard Johnston

65
Campaign Activities and Marginality: The Transition to MMP Campaigns

David Denemark

81
Vote Splitting Under MMP

Susan Banducci, Jeffrey Karp and Jack V o wles

101 120 135 153 171
Coalition Government: The People’s Choice?

Raymond Miller

Representation Under a Proportional System

Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp

10 Voter Satisfaction After Electoral System Change

Jeffrey Karp and Susan Banducci

11 Realignment? Maori and the 1996 Election

Ann Sullivan and Jack V o wles

12 Voter Rationality and the Advent of MMP

Jack Vowles, Peter Aime r , S usan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp

192 212 240 249 254 260 261
Appendix A: 1996 NZES: Research Design and Implementation Appendix B: Methodology, Statistical Methods, and Variable Coding Appendix C: Supplementary Tables References Notes on Contributors Index

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  • V o ters ’ V ictory?

TABLES AND FIGURES

Tables

Table 1.1 Parties Represented in Parliament, 1996 Election Table 1.2 Seats and Votes 1938–96 (%)

Table 2.1 Party Fractionalisation in the Pre-MMP Parliament Table 2.2 Apparent Grounds for Incumbent Defection to New Parties Table 2.3 The Problems of Non-Defector Incumbents Table 2.4 Availability of Candidates for List and Electorate Table 2.5 Knowledge of MMP, 1994–96

Table 3.1 Actual and Simulated Results of the 1996 Election Table 3.2 Party Votes From Which the Simulated FPP Votes Came Table 3.3 Differences Between Outcomes of the 1993 and 1996
Elections, and the Hypothetical FPP 1996 Election
Table 3.4 Class and Urban–Rural Cleavage: Party Votes by Electorates
Against Major Occupational Groups by Electorates
Table 3.5 The Gender Gap in a Selection of New Zealand Elections,
1963–96
Table 3.6 Actual Party Vote MMP and Simulated FPP Voting by Social
Groups at the 1996 General Election
Table 3.7 Multivariate Models of Social Structure and Voting Choices
Between MMP Party Vote and Simulated FPP

Table 4.1 Party Shares of the Vote in 1993 Compared to 1996 Table 4.2 Party Votes in 1993 and 1996 Table 4.3 Patterns of Volatility, 1993–96 Table 4.4 Where the 1993 Voters Went To in 1996 Table 4.5 Where the 1996 Voters Came From Table 4.6 How the 1993 and 1996 Identifiers Voted in 1996 Table 4.7 Partisan Sources of Vote Choice in 1996

Table 5.1 The Flow of the Vote, Before the Debates to Election Day Table 5.2 Labour’s Credibility Within Ideological Families Table 5.3 Relative Impact of Issues, Pre- and Post-Debate Table 5.4 Relative Importance of Leadership and Issues in Labour Vote
Intentions

Table 6.1 Campaign Contact of Voters by Vote Choice, 1993 and 1996 Table 6.2 Party Campaign Spending in 1996 Table 6.3 Party Vote in 1996 by Exposure to Campaign News and
Advertising in the Mass Media: Seven Logistic Multiple Regressions

vi

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  • vii

Table 6.4 Exposure to Parties’ Campaign Activities by Marginality of
Electorates in 1993 and 1996 (%)

Table 7.1 Understanding of MMP: Which Vote Is Most Important Table 7.2 Defections from Party Vote Table 7.3 Electorate and Party Votes: Defections from the Party Vote Table 7.4 Viable Electorates by Party Table 7.5 Patterns of Vote Splitting by Party Preference, Strength of
Partisan Attachment and Political Interest

Table 8.1 Feelings About NZ First and Winston Peters among National
Voters
Table 8.2 Feelings About Parties and Leaders among NZ First Voters Table 8.3 Average Evaluations of Winston Peters by Issue Preference

Table 9.1 Attitudes Towards Under-Representation, by Gender and
Ethnicity
Table 9.2 Pathways to Representation: Women and Maori on Party Lists and Electorate Seats

Table 10.1 Trust in Government by Vote for MMP (%) Table 10.2 Correlates of Discontent Table 10.3 Change in Attitudes Toward Government According to
Evaluation of Economic Policy by Party Identification
Table 10.4 Explaining Changes in Discontent

Table 11.1 The Electorate Vote and Non-Vote in All Maori Electorates
(%)
Table 11.2 Voting in the Maori Electorates 1993–96: Labour, NZ First, and Alliance
Table 11.3 Those Who Identify as Maori: Party Vote by Social Groups Table 11.4 Maori Compared to European Party Vote and NZ First by
Social Groups (OLS Coefficients)
Table 11.5 The Flow of the Maori Electorate Vote, 1993–96 Table 11.6 Party Identification and Electorate Vote, Maori Electorates Table 11.7 Loyalties, Attitudes, Policy Orientations, Leaders, Candidates, and Maori and General Electorate Vote Choices for NZ First versus Labour
Table 11.8 Relationships Between Treaty Issues Opinion and Preference for NZ First Policies Compared to Labour’s

Table 12.1 Hypothetical FPP/Actual Party Vote and Split versus Straight
Voting
Table 12.2 Preferred Party by Party, Electorat, and Hypothetical FPP
Votes (% of Party Preferees Who Voted for their Preferred Party)
Table 12.3 Party Votes of Vote Splitters: Consistency With Apparent
Preferences
Table 12.4 An MMP Balance Sheet

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  • V o ters ’ V ictory?

Figures

Figure 2.1 Confidence In Future of Economy Over Next Year and Poll
Support for National
Figure 2.2 Intended Party Vote, Major Parties, 1993–96 Figure 2.3 Intended Party Vote, Threshold Parties, 1994–96 Figure 2.4 Effective Number of Elective Parties, 1975–96 Figure 2.5 Poll Volatility, 1975–96

Figure 3.1 Class Voting in New Zealand, 1963–96 (%) Figure 3.2 Gender Gaps For National and Labour Vote, 1963–96 (%) Figure 3.3 Social Differentiation of Support of National and Labour Under
MMP and Simulated FPP

Figure 5.1 Vote Intentions Over the Campaign (%) Figure 5.2 Best Prime Minister, by Day of Campaign (%) Figure 5.3 Rating of Helen Clark as Best Prime Minister by Ideological
Predisposition (%)
Figure 5.4 Party Closeness on Most Important Issues (%) Figure 5.5 Most Important Issue, by Day of Campaign (%)

Figure 6.1 Voter Exposure to Election News and Advertising in the Media Figure 6.2 Voter Exposure to Campaign Activity in Safe and Marginal
Seats for National and Labour
Figure 6.3 Levels of Candidate Spending in Safe and Marginal Seats Figure 6.4 Scale of Campaign Activities by Marginality of Electorates
(Labour–National Base)

Figure 7.1 Labour Party Vote by Labour Electorate Vote Figure 7.2 National Party Vote by National Electorate Vote Figure 7.3 NZ First Party Vote by NZ First Electorate Vote Figure 7.4 Alliance Party Vote by Alliance Electorate Vote Figure 7.5 ACT Party Vote by ACT Electorate Vote Figure 7.6 Split Voter Combinations in Ideological Space

Figure 8.1 Coalition Preferences of Intending Labour Voters During the
Campaign
Figure 8.2 Coalition Preferences of Intending National Voters During the
Campaign
Figure 8.3 Coalition Preferences of Intending NZ First Voters During the
Campaign

Figure 9.1 Representation of Women and Maori in Parliament, 1853–1996 Figure 9.2 Party Difference from Median Voter, Left–Right Scale, 1993 and
1996
Figure 9.3 Party Differences from Median Voter, All Issues, 1993 and 1996 Figure 9.4 Dyadic Congruence, Left–Right Scale, Party Élite and Party
Voters, 1993 and 1996
Figure 9.5 Dyadic Congruence, Old Politics, Party Élite and Party Voters
1993 and 1996

  • Preface
  • ix

Figure 9.6 Dyadic Congruence, New Politics, Party Élite and Party Voters
1993 and 1996

Figure 10.1 Changes in Perceptions of Responsiveness, Civic Duty,
Subjective Competence and Trust, 1993–96
Figure 10.2 Changes in the Perceptions of the Trustworthiness of the Parties,
1990–96

Figure 12.1 Effect of Labour Candidate Evaluation on Voting for Labour Figure 12.2 Effect of Evaluations of Clark on Voting for Labour Figure 12.3 Effect of Old Politics Issues on Voting for Labour Figure 12.4 Deviations from Proportionality (1938–96) Figure 12.5 Poll Support for Five Parties, Intended Party Vote, Election 1996 to September 1997
Figure 12.6 Support for Electoral Systems After the Election Figure 12.7 Support for MMP in the Months Following the Election, by
Party

PREFACE

To begin this book’s account of the 1996 election in New Zealand we must briefly step back three years. For many who followed the results on election night 1993 the most important contest was not between the various political parties, but between two electoral systems, which were the subject of a referendum held simultaneously. The contest put the old first-past-the-post (FPP) system against a challenger, Mixed Member Proportional (MMP). With National only tenuously holding on to power, by the end of the evening the only certain victory was that of MMP, but it was a sweet one for those who had worked for that change for nearly 10 years. Those who advocated MMP regarded the victory not only as theirs, but also one which, in the long run, would amount to a victory for all New Zealand voters.
Yet in the aftermath of the first election held under MMP, that sense of victory had faded among all but its most ardent believers. With all the 1996 election night votes counted, no one knew which party would lead the government and most New Zealanders, whatever their political preferences, could neither celebrate nor hold a wake. Election night gatherings fizzled rather than sparked. The New Zealand First party, holding the balance of power, took two months to make a decision which, polling indicated, the majority of its voters neither expected nor approved of.
A majority of New Zealanders continued to favour MMP until immediately after the 1996 election. Since then, through most of 1997 polling indicated a majority once more favouring FPP. Many New Zealanders apparently believed that instead of a victory for voters, the first MMP election was a defeat, returning an unpopular government to power with the help of New Zealand First. Many felt misled by New Zealand First, believing that it had indicated it wished to defeat rather than govern with National.
The following analysis of the 1996 New Zealand Election has two main objectives: to provide an authoritative account of the election, as in previous studies (Vowles & Aimer 1993; Vowles et al. 1995), and to begin to identify the effects and consequences of electoral system change. Chapter 1 outlines what people expected from MMP, and Chapter 2 brings the account up to the time of the 1996 election. Chapters 3 to 11 then focus on the distinctive aspects of the first MMP election and its outcome, while Chapter 12 offers a conclusion and some speculation.
Electoral systems impact powerfully on a country’s politics. Chapter 1 explores the wide implications of electoral system change, and what we might expect from the adoption of proportional representation in the unique New Zealand setting. In Chapter 2, Jack Vowles examines changes driven by the imminence of MMP during the transition years of 1993–96. He further pursues the theme of change in Chapter 3, to discern whether a new

xi

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party system has emerged under MMP. Certainly, before and during the transition to MMP, new parties sprang up, greatly widening the voters’ choice. How did the voters respond? In Chapter 4, Peter Aimer traces the broad patterns of vote change (volatility) and stability in 1996 compared with voters’ choices in 1993. Chapter 5 maps the patterns of volatility during the crucial three-week election campaign. Breaking new ground for election analyses in New Zealand, Richard Johnston uses the results of daily interviews to graphically show the links between Helen Clark’s campaign and Labour’s eleventh-hour electoral recovery as main opposition party. In proportional systems ‘every vote counts’, so the slogan says. To what extent, therefore, did parties adjust their campaigns to a nationwide pursuit of votes? David Denemark provides a detailed analysis in Chapter 6. For voters, MMP meant an opportunity to cast two votes. In Chapter 7, Susan Banducci, Jeffrey Karp and Jack Vowles explore the way people deployed their two votes, and look in detail at those people who split their preferences by voting for a candidate for a party for which they did not cast their party vote.
The coalition building process was perhaps the most difficult adjustment to electoral change that party leaders and voters alike were forced to make. Raymond Miller analyses the coalition outcome of the election in Chapter 8. According to its advocates, MMP should produce a more representative parliament. This is the claim Banducci and Karp pursue in Chapter 9. Electoral change had been nurtured within an increasingly disillusioned and discontented electorate. In Chapter 10, Banducci and Karp search for evidence that MMP has the capacity to revive people’s faith and trust in politics. In the 1993 referendum Maori had strongly supported MMP. One of the most dramatic and decisive results of the first MMP election was the capture of all five Maori electorates by New Zealand First candidates. In Chapter 11, Ann Sullivan and Jack Vowles examine this significant realignment of Maori preference away from Labour. Finally, in Chapter 12 the editors collectively sum up the findings of this study of a unique electoral experience in New Zealand politics.

V o ters’ Victory?  is the third major study of voters and electoral choice

based on data generated by the nationwide, post-election surveys conducted since 1990 by the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) programme, and funded from the Public Good Science Fund administered by the Foundation for Research, Science, and Technology (FRST). All three have been published by Auckland University Press. The first two books in the series, V o ters’

V e ngeance and T o wards Consensus? (the question mark, as in the title of the

present book, merits emphasis), provide the essential benchmarks for analysis of voting behaviour in the final years of FPP elections in New Zealand. They record the growing disillusionment with two-party politics, in part associated with the changes that accompanied the resurgence of economic liberalism in New Zealand.
Electoral change took longer to arrive than many of the policies of the
1984–90 Labour Government and subsequent National administrations, but electoral reform became an integral part of that political sequence. In 1986 a Labour-appointed royal commission had recommended the move to MMP; in 1990 the National Opposition promised to put the issue to referendum. The

  • Preface
  • xiii

first, non-binding referendum in 1992 resulted in a clear vote for change, with the MMP model massively preferred over the other options. This outcome was affirmed, although in a much closer result, in the second, binding referendum held in conjunction with the 1993 general election. The NZES programme has thus been doubly fortunate in coinciding not only with a period of great political drama, but also in straddling a major change in the ways that votes are cast and counted.
The 1996 study has been funded much more generously than in the past, for which the editors and authors express their gratitude to the FRST. Other funding for which we are similarly grateful was provided by Lottery Science, and by the research committees of the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato School of Social Sciences. The substantially greater resources available made it possible for us to expand the size and scope of the study. In particular, while the 1990 and 1993 studies relied on the questionnaire responses of over 2,000 New Zealanders, in 1996 we received the generous assistance of a little over 5,000. Of these, about 700 had participated in both the 1990 and 1993 studies, and another 500 in the 1993 study. This introduces a stronger ‘panel’ element into our research design, because it means we can compare responses from the same people over two or three elections. We also ensured that we would achieve a sufficiently large sample from the Maori electorates to begin the first systematic survey-based study of Maori political behaviour. Finally, about 2,161 people interviewed by telephone on a night-by-night basis during the five-week campaign also provided us with questionnaire responses after the election. As in 1993, we also sent questionnaires to candidates of all significant political parties, and received responses from about 60 per cent.
In order to sample voters, 28-page questionnaires were sent to people randomly selected from the electoral rolls or, in the case of the campaign sample, by computer-assisted random-digit dialling of telephone numbers. After two reminders, those who had not responded to the mailed questionnaires were telephoned, if possible, and a shorter interview conducted. The identities of everyone involved are, of course, completely confidential, and cannot be identified in any analysis or indeed in the data itself. Response rates varied across the various sub-sections of the sample, but averaged just under 60 per cent. Analysis of the responses in comparison to voting patterns and social and demographic variables indicates that it is satisfactorily representative of New Zealand voters in 1996. Further details on sampling and methods can be found in Appendices A and B.
A book of this kind incurs immense personal and institutional debts.
Elizabeth Caffin at Auckland University Press made it possible for us to add a third book to the NZES election series. Dr Gabriel Dekel of the Survey Research Unit in the Department of Political Science and Public Policy administered the campaign survey and worked extremely hard and diligently in doing so, with the help of Annie Muggeridge. The New Zealand Herald and Television New Zealand contributed to our funding and publicised the initial findings of the campaign study. Walter Forrest performed invaluable research assistance at the University of Waikato, and Mike Crawshaw and Marcus Ganley helped at the University of Auckland. The National Research

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  • V o ters ’ V ictory?

Bureau administered a section of the post-election telephone supplement with their usual reliability. Julie Clements of Marketing Data Services handled the data capture from over 4,000 questionnaire booklets with ease and good humour. One of our authors, Dick Johnston, deserves particular thanks for making available to us the experience of the Canadian Election Study in designing and analysing rolling cross-sections of campaign data.
The Electoral Enrolment Centre (EEC) speedily provided us with the electoral roll in electronic form, once it had reassured itself that the law permits its use for bona fide social science research. Access to the roll for this purpose is very valuable, and we hope that the EEC will facilitate the proper use of the roll for other social researchers in future. We are grateful also for their rapid provision of other useful data on the roll. Dr Paul Harris of the Electoral Commission was consistently supportive and helpful, as was the Chief Electoral Office. We also appreciate the assistance of Stephen Mills, who provided post-election data from UMR Insight Limited. Peter Aimer and Jack Vowles, the initial editors, would also like to thank Susan Banducci and Jeffrey Karp, whose enthusiasm, commitment, competence and hard work simply obliged us to include them as co-editors of V o ters’ Victory? in recognition of the extent of their contribution to the study. Other people too numerous to name participated in the work necessary to produce this book, notably the telephone interviewers and coders, most of them students at the University of Waikato. We acknowledge their services gratefully. Finally, our most profound debt is to our respondents. Without their willingness to spend considerable time and thought filling out our questionnaire or answering questions over the phone, none of this would have been possible. Our appreciation of their participation is immense, and we trust that the value of this study in expanding knowledge justifies both their time and the mostly taxpayer-generated funds needed to conduct it.
Until recently New Zealand has been regarded as a model of Westminster, British-style, two-party politics. Veering suddenly towards multi-party politics under an unfamilar European system of proportional representation, New Zealand electoral politics has attracted international interest. So too have the extensive data sets generated by the NZES, which are all available for analysis by other scholars. As well as New Zealanders, among our contributing authors are scholars based in Canada, Australia, and from the United States. We hope this book will be of value both to New Zealanders who wish to understand the consequences of institutional change for their own country, and to people elsewhere who may learn from our experience and apply it to their own situation.

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    Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. ADVERTISING AND THE MARKET ORIENTATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES CONTESTING THE 1999 AND 2002 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS A THESIS PRESENTED IN FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICS AT MASSEY UNIVERSITY, PALMERSTON NORTH, NEW ZEALAND. CLAIRE ELIZABETH ROBINSON 2006 i ABSTRACT This thesis proposes an alternative way of establishing a link between market orientation and electoral success, by focusing on market orientation as a message instead of as a management function. Using interpretive textual analysis the thesis examines the advertising messages of the highest polling political parties for evidence of voter orientation and competitor orientation in the 1999 and 2002 New Zealand general election campaigns. Relating manifest market orientation to a number of statistical indicators of electoral success the thesis looks for plausible associations between the visual manifestation of market orientation in political advertisements and parties’ achievement of their party vote goals in the 1999 and 2002 elections. It offers party-focused explanations for electoral outcomes to complement existing voter-centric explanations, and adds another level of scholarly understanding of recent electoral outcomes in New Zealand. While the thesis finds little association between demonstration ofcompetitor orientation in political advertisements and electoral success, it finds a plausible relationship between parties that demonstrated a voter orientation in their political advertisements and goal achievement.
  • History Theses

    History Theses

    History Theses These theses are held in the Department Library. MA and PhD theses are also held in the main University Library, and many are available in PDF format online from (http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/). Many BA(Hons) and PGDip disserations are also held in the Hocken Collections. For more information, please contact [email protected]. History Theses Adams, Jonathan. "Thomas Chalmers and the Condition of Scotland Question: Ideas of a Christian Thinker. Biographical study, with particular reference to Chalmer's social theory." BA (Hons), 1978. Adams, Megan K. "The Patients' and Prisoners' Aid Society 1902-1917." BA, 1985. Adams, Jane M. "The Concept of "Criminal Lunacy". A case study of Seacliff Lunatic Asylum, 1882-1912." BA (Hons), 2000. Adin, Robert. "T K Sidey, A Good Christian Gentleman: A study of Christian Masculinity in New Zealand." BA (Hons), 2001. Agnew, Trevor. "Frederick Joseph Moss and his term of office in the Cook Islands." MA, 1966. Aiken, Carina. "Gender & Local Politics." BA (Hons), 2005. Aiono-Le Tangaloa, Fanaafi. "Tapuai: Samoan Worship." BA (Hons), 2001. Aitken, Jennifer . "Expose The 'Moyle Affair in Public Discourse'." BA(Hons), 2011. Allison, Fiona. "Just Good Neighbours? The Aid Relationship Between Australia and Papua New Guinea." PGDA, 1995. Amodeo, Charlotte Lea. "The Murder Trial of Senga Florence Whittingham. An Examination into the Nature of Gender Relations in the 1950s." BA (Hons), 2001. Anderson, Margaret. "The Female Front: The Attitudes of Otago Women Towards the Great War 1914-1918 ." BA (Hons), 1990. Anderson, Honor. "Hydatids: A Disease of Human Carelessness. A History of Human Hydatid Disease in New Zealand." MA, 1997.
  • Voting in New Zealand Local Government Elections: the Need to Encourage Greater Voter Turnout

    Voting in New Zealand Local Government Elections: the Need to Encourage Greater Voter Turnout

    RESEARCH and EVALUATION (PEER REVIEWED) Voting in New Zealand local government elections: the need to encourage greater voter turnout Commonwealth Journal of Local Governance Issue 24: June 2021 http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/ojs/index.php/cjlg Andy Asquith School of Management Massey University Palmerston North 4442 New Zealand Email: [email protected] Karen Webster School of Clinical Sciences Auckland University of Technology Auckland 0632 New Zealand Email: [email protected] Andrew Cardow School of Management Massey University Palmerston North 4442 New Zealand Email: [email protected] Abstract Within a global context, local government in New Zealand occupies an enviable position: it enjoys both a statutorily-defined ‘power of general competence’ and financial autonomy from central government. However, despite this, voter turnout rates in New Zealand local elections continue to fall as ever fewer New Zealanders engage in this fundamental act of civic engagement. This review article examines the decline in voting over the last four New Zealand local government elections (2010/13/16/19). It aims to do three things: plot the decline; identify and analyse the causes of this decline; and suggest ways in which the decline might be countered. The authors reach the conclusion that local government in New Zealand is at a crossroads – it will either be rejuvenated as a source of local democracy and prosper, or decline into an administrative arm of central government. Keywords: Local government, elections, citizen engagement, New Zealand DOI: https://doi.org/10.5130/cjlg.vi24.7541 Article History: Received 18/12/20; Accepted 31/05/21; Published 28/06/21 Citation: Commonwealth Journal of Local Governance 2021, 24: 79-97, https://doi.org/10.5130/cjlg.vi24.7541 © 2021 Andy Asquith, Karen Webster and Andrew Cardow.
  • Local Elections 2019

    Local Elections 2019

    Local elections 2019: Quick facts “..If democracy is to do with self-government, the control of one’s own life and environment, then the most important area of control is the most immediate environment, the locality in which one lives. Home and neighbourhood should take precedence over the wider and more remote units of region, state or nation” (Richard Mulgan). Local government is our primary level of democracy. It provides a mechanism for people to participate in local public affairs and have a say in the way in which their communities are run and the local public services they receive. It also enables people to learn about democracy through practice and become active citizens in their own right. Local democracy is also much more than simply voting. As these quick facts highlight, a healthy democracy is also characterised by active competition for seats and elected bodies that not only represent their communities, but are also representative of them, that is, reflect community diversity. These quick facts are designed to provide a snapshot of those elected in the 2019 local authority elections to our local and regional councils, local boards and community boards. Please note that unless specified otherwise, all references to elected members include mayors, councillors, local board members and community board members. Turnout Figure 1 describes total and average turnout in the local authority elections, as well as parliamentary elections, from 1987 to 2019. Figure 1: Voter turnout 1987 - 2019 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Percentage Creation of 20 Auckland Council 10 Average LG Local government Parliament 0 87/89 90/92 93/95 96/98 99/01 02/04 05/07 08/10 11/13 14/16 17/20 Source: LGNZ/Electoral Commission 1 Beginning in the late 1980’s, the overall trend is for turnout to decline in both local and parliamentary elections, with the gap between parliamentary turnout and average council turnout growing from 23 per cent in 1987/89, to 31 per cent in 2019.
  • Mainstreet Manager Interviews Summary

    Mainstreet Manager Interviews Summary

    Demographic patterns of behaviour in Auckland local government elections Prepared for April 2016 Prepared by Buzz Channel T: 09 379 8920 E: [email protected] W: http://www.buzzchannel.co.nz This report predicts the likelihood of voter turnout in different areas of Auckland. It assigns every Census Area Unit in Auckland with a ‘likelihood of voting’ score. These scores, displayed in ‘heat maps’, show which areas are likely to have a higher or lower voter turnout in the 2016 Auckland Council elections. The report is based on Statistics New Zealand and Auckland Council surveys and predicts likelihood of voting from potential voters’ age, ethnicity and home ownership status. It does not include broader attitudinal predictors of voting behaviour, such as political affiliation or orientation, and does not explain why voter turnout may be high or low in a given area. Demographic patterns final report Page 1 of 22 Objectives and methodology Background and objectives Local authority elections are held every three years with the last Auckland local election held in 2013. A total of 959,120 Aucklanders were enrolled to vote in 2010 and 994,022 enrolled to vote in 2013 (Department of Internal Affairs, 2013). Globally, voter turnout for elections in mature democracies is declining and in New Zealand all local councils have seen a decline in voter turnout since 1989 (Department of Internal Affairs, 2013). Voter turnout dropped significantly at the 2013 Auckland Council local election, falling 15.5% from 51% in 2010 to 35.5% in 2013, one of the lowest turnout rates in the country (Local Government New Zealand, 2015).