MONETARY and FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 Decline in Interest Rates and Refinancing Boom

ANALYSIS DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 18 SEPTEMBER 2019 — NO. 19 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 Decline in interest rates and refinancing boom In September, Danmarks Nationalbank lowered its key monetary policy interest rate, the rate of interest on certificates CONTENTS of deposit, by 10 basis points to -0.75 per cent, following the ECB’s reduction of its rate of deposit facility. The krone 2 KEY TRENDS IN rate remains stable, being slightly on the weak side of the THE FINANCIAL MARKETS SINCE central rate. MARCH 2019 3 THE DANISH ECONOMY Overall, financial conditions are accommodative and support AND FINANCIAL the ongoing economic upswing. Interest rates on mortgage CONDITIONS and government bond have declined substantially in 2019, 6 MONETARY POLICY triggering a new refinancing boom during which many AND MONEY MARKETS households have opted for lower-rate home loans. This 9 BOND MARKETS underpins growth in private consumption. 13 EQUITY MARKETS 14 CREDIT AND MONEY Credit growth remains moderate and has slowed slightly in 2019, despite falling interest rates. Household financing costs have fallen since the financial crisis, while firms’ financing costs have remained relatively unchanged, reflecting that the cost of equity has not mirrored the decline in interest rates. Monetary policy Falling Refinancing interest rate interest boom reduction rates First Danish interest rate change Record low level. Supports increased for more than three years. economic activity Read more Read more Read more ANALYSIS — DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 2 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 Key trends in the financial markets since March 2019 Over the past six months, several central banks, In September, the ECB lowered the interest rate on including the European Central Bank, ECB, have the deposit facility by 10 basis points to -0.50 per lowered their growth and inflation forecasts. This cent, a record low. The ECB also announced that it primarily reflects growing concern over global mac- would restart its asset purchase programme on 1 roeconomic developments, with uncertainty about November 2019 and introduce a two-tier interest the Brexit outcome and the ongoing US-China trade rate system on 30 October. As a result of the ECB’s conflict, among other factors. interest rate reduction, Danmarks Nationalbank lowered the rate of interest on certificates of depos- Both the Federal Reserve, Fed, and the ECB have it by 10 basis points to -0.75 per cent. The Danish lowered their monetary policy rates and announced krone is slightly on the weak side of the central rate. that they are open to the prospect of pursuing a Danmarks Nationalbank has not intervened in the more accommodative monetary policy in future. This foreign exchange market. has led to a decrease in short-term money market interest rates and substantial declines in the yields of Danish mortgage and government bonds, taking them to record lows. Overview: Financial markets since March 2019 Note: The blue bar indicates the change at the cut-off date of 13 September 2019 relative to the cut-off date for the previous edition, i.e. 15 March 2019. The endpoints of the black lines indicate the largest and smallest changes, respectively, over the period from 15 March 2019. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream and Eikon. ANALYSIS — DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 3 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 The Danish economy and financial conditions Falling interest rates stimulate economic activity Falling interest rates Chart 1 Financial conditions remain accommodative and have contributed to economic growth support the ongoing upswing in the Danish econo- GDP effect, year-on-year Contributions, Q2 2019 my. Low interest rates have been the primary driver 0.50 of accommodative financial conditions and contributed an estimated 0.18 per cent to GDP growth in 0.25 Interest rate the 2nd quarter of 2019, cf. Chart 1. Total Credit 0.00 Low interest rates contribute to higher economic House activity through several channels. For instance, price Equities the drop in interest rates has triggered the largest -0.25 refinancing boom of fixed-rate mortgage bonds Financial conditions since 2005, cf. the section on Credit and money. This -0.50 helps to support economic growth, as households 12 14 16 18 in connection with refinancing, in average, increase their housing loan and consumption. In Denmark, Note: Financial conditions show the total contribution from refinancing and additional borrowing at the same developments in credit, equity prices, house prices and interest rates to GDP growth. Financial conditions have time support growth in private consumption by an been calculated by means of a structural VAR model and estimated 0.9 percentage points in 2019.1 have thus been purged of cyclical factors, see Jensen and Pedersen, 2019, Macro financial linkages in a SVAR model with application to Denmark, Danmarks Nationalbank, Despite historically low interest rates, the inter- Working Paper, No. 134. est rate contribution to GDP growth is relatively Source: Danmarks Nationalbank, Statistics Denmark and own calculations. limited. This reflects that the level of interest rates should be weighed against the natural level of interest rates, measured by the natural real interest rate. Danmarks Nationalbank’s estimate of the natural real interest rate indicates that the impact on the fact that a drop in household wealth resulting from Danish economy of the level of monetary policy lower equity prices can lead to lower consumption. rates is practically neutral. This should be seen in Lower equity prices may also dampen business the context of the decline in the natural real interest investment.2 rate since the 1990s and the subsequent lowering of monetary policy rates. However, due to other Credit developments in 2019 are estimated to be factors, such as spillovers from the ECB’s asset pur- largely neutral for the Danish economic upswing, chase programme, monetary policy is assessed to while developments in house prices have had a provide a moderate stimulus to the Danish econ- slightly negative impact on GDP growth in 2019, omy, cf. the section on Monetary policy and money possibly reflecting that house prices have flattened markets. slightly, both for Denmark overall and in Copenha- gen.3 Equity prices are assessed to have reduced growth slightly in 2019. This should be viewed in light of the 1 See Henrik Yde Andersen, Stine Ludvig Bech, Ida Rommedahl Julin 2 See Jonas Ladegaard Hensch and Morten Spange, 2019, Increasing and Alexander Meldgaard Otte, 2019, Mortgage refinancing sup- equity prices support investments, Danmarks Nationalbank Analysis, ports private consumption, Danmarks Nationalbank Analysis, No. 17. No. 8. 3 See Danmarks Nationalbank, 2019, Outlook for the Danish economy, September, Analysis, No 20. ANALYSIS — DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 4 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 The pass-through from monetary policy Household financing costs continue to decline depends on the source of financing Average household financing costs have shown a Financial conditions are affected by monetary policy, slightly declining trend in 2019, cf. Chart 3. This is which is set in accordance with the fixed exchange partly attributable to a changed structure of finan- rate policy against the euro, cf. the illustration in cing, with households continuing to switch from Chart 2. Monetary policy comprises determination bank loans to cheaper mortgage loans. The fall in of monetary policy rates, inter alia, that determine households’ financing costs is, however, smaller than money market interest rates. Both monetary policy in previous years. This is because average mortgage and money market interest rates affect bank rates yields have remained largely unchanged as a result and mortgage yields, inter alia, which are key to of the households’ switch to fixed-rate loans, cf. the households’ and firms’ overall financing costs. section on Credit and money. Households primarily rely on debt as a source of The full effect of monetary policy financing, while firms use both debt and equity finan- has not passed through to firms’ financing costs cing. The pass-through from monetary policy rates to Firms’ average costs of debt financing have gener- households’ and firms’ financing costs can thus differ ally mirrored developments in household financing and depend on the source of financing, cf. Box 1. costs, illustrated by the red line, cf. Chart 3. However, Chart 2 Financial conditions affect the real economy EXTERNAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS DANMARKS NATIONALBANK FINANCIAL CONDITIONS REAL ECONOMY STABLE MONETARY MONEY CREDIT AND EQUITY BOND KRONE POLICY MARKET MONEY MARKETS MARKETS READ READ READ READ READ MORE MORE MORE MORE MORE HERE HERE HERE HERE HERE ANALYSIS — DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 5 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS — SEPTEMBER 2019 Changes in the composition of liabilities influence Box 1 the transmission of monetary policy The transmission of monetary policy to the financing Equity accounts for approximately 50 per cent of the total conditions of households and non-financial corporations liabilities of non-financial corporations.2 Debt, comprising has traditionally taken place through banks and mortgage mortgage debt, bank debt, sector loans, issuance of corpo- credit institutions. But especially after the financial crisis in rate bonds and other debt, makes up the remaining share 2007-08, focus has been on transmission of monetary policy of the balance sheet, cf. Chart A. Like corporate borrowing, through channels other

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