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Elite Democracy: Political Competition and Voter Opinion in the 2010 Australian Federal Election

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Elite Democracy: Political Competition and Voter Opinion in the 2010 Australian Federal Election Elite Democracy: Political Competition and Voter Opinion in the 2010 Australian Federal Election by Christopher Paul Jones B. A. (Hons.) Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy School of Social Sciences University of Tasmania April 2014 Declaration This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in the thesis, and to the best of my knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the thesis, nor does the thesis contain any material that infringes copyright. Christopher Paul Jones Authority of Access This thesis may be made available for loan and limited copying and communication in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. Christopher Paul Jones Statement of Ethical Conduct The research associated with this thesis abides by the international and Australian codes on human and animal experimentation, the guidelines by the Australian Government's Office of the Gene Technology Regulator and the rulings of the Safety, Ethics and Institutional Biosafety Committees of the University. Christopher Paul Jones ii Elite Democracy: Political Competition and Voter Opinion in the 2010 Australian Federal Election Thesis Abstract This research investigates the voter-leader nexus by examining the extent to which public opinion mirrors the political attitudes and pronouncements of political elites in Australia. While aggregative-pluralist scholars regard voters as holders of exogenous preferences and political elites as aggregators of these preferences, neo-elitists regard public opinion as actively shaped and manufactured by competitive elites seeking election to political office. These perspectives, while both compelling, are mutually exclusive. Using the 2010 Federal Election campaign as a case study, the research employs a mixed methods approach to compare the plausibility of the two perspectives. The empirical part involves: (a) comparison of the structure of voters’ political attitudes with those of parliamentary candidates drawing upon the 1990 - 2010 Australian Election Studies and Australian Candidate Studies; and (b) qualitative analysis of the dynamics of leader-voter interaction through the use of innovative ‘political logs’ kept by participants during the 2010 election campaign. The quantitative analysis confirms the neo-elitist proposition that Labor and Coalition elites polarise more strongly on left-right issues than on authority issues, a finding that holds across the 20-year sampled period. The qualitative analysis shows that while participants generally have high levels of political awareness , their political autonomy is low – as their information is sourced from leaders and parties, and voter agendas increasingly correspond with those of leaders toward the end of the campaign. This study finds that Australian democracy is far more elite-driven than is currently acknowledged. I conclude that contemporary democracy is characterised by an asymmetrical and elite-dominated social process of persuasion in strategic competition for control of the state. My research contributes to political sociology, demonstrating that political logs offer a valuable supplement to surveys by allowing researchers to examine the dynamics of the voter-leader nexus. iii Acknowledgements I am indebted to my supervisors, Professor Jan Pakulski and Associate Professor Bruce Tranter, for their incredible knowledge and generosity. A special thank you to Dr. Barbara Stewart, who has probably read it through more than I have. Thanks to Carrie, too, my chief leisure consultant. And finally, to Lisa, without whom this wouldn’t have been possible. iv Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES VII CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Focus and aims 3 1.2. Political sociology, political science 4 1.4. The background: elite research in Australia 10 1.5. Plan of the research 15 CHAPTER 2 - THE RIVAL PERSPECTIVES, MODELS AND IDEAL TYPES 17 2.1. Elites and non-elites 18 2.1.2. Consensual elites and liberal democracy 24 2.2. The rival model: aggregative-pluralist 26 2.2.1. Dahl’s ‘polyarchy’ 28 2.2.2. Lipset’s ‘cleavage politics’ 28 2.2.3. Downs’s ‘median voter’ 30 2.2.4. Page and Shapiro’s ‘rational public’ 31 2.2.5. Justifying the aggregative-pluralist label 32 2.2.6. The deficiencies of deliberative democracy 32 2.3. The two models compared 33 2.3.1. The direction of power-influence flows 34 2.3.2. The nature of political representation 34 2.3.3. Voter competence and autonomy 35 2.4. Conclusion 36 CHAPTER 3 - DATA AND METHODS 38 3.1. Research Questions 38 3.2. Research Approach 39 3.3. Defining and selecting the political elite 41 3.4. Quantitative data and methodology 42 3.4.1. Linear regression 44 3.4.2. Selection of variables 45 3.4.3. Control variables 46 3.5. Qualitative data and methodology 47 3.5.1. Design and administration 50 3.5.2. Qualitative log analysis 52 3.5.3. Agenda originality analysis 53 3.6. Potential Problems 54 3.7. Conclusion 55 CHAPTER 4 - RESULTS FROM QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF CANDIDATE- VOTER ATTITUDES, 1990-2010 56 4.0.1. Aggregative-pluralism 57 4.0.2. Neo-elitism 58 4.1. Testing the plausibility of two models 58 4.2. Theoretical expectations 60 4.3. Elite and voter polarisation 61 4.3.1. Evaluating aggregative-pluralism 67 v 4.4. Elite-Mass relations: Comparing the Parties 70 4.5. Changes Over Time 74 4.5.1. Competition issues 74 4.5.2. Authority issues 78 4.5.3. Guardians of democracy? 78 4.6. Elites and Masses in Australia 82 4.6.1. Polarisation, fragmentation, or neither? 83 CHAPTER 5 - VOTERS AND LEADERS IN THE 2010 ELECTION CAMPAIGN – ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL LOGS 86 5.2. The electoral campaign 88 5.3. The participants 91 5.4. Political logs – voter awareness and autonomy 93 5.4.1. Pet issues 94 5.4.2. Pet issues sometimes get swept away 95 5.4.3. Parties and leaders 97 5.4.4. Leadership is a captured word 97 5.4.5. People vote for parties, but trust (and hate) leaders 98 5.4.6. Political performance as fulfilment of promises 99 5.4.7. ‘The people’ and populism 100 5.4.8. Disillusionment with the mass-mediated leadership contest 101 5.4.9. Media use – the digital revolution? 103 5.4.10. Who speaks: media or leaders? 104 5.5. Examining political autonomy 106 5.5.1. Agenda originality 107 5.6. Conclusions 109 CHAPTER 6 – DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 111 6.0.1. Approach 111 6.1. Key findings 112 6.2. Elite-voter relations in Australia 115 6.3. The two perspectives compared 118 6.4. Methodological reflections and future research 119 6.4.1. Understanding the media 120 6.5. Conclusion: The relevance of the neo-elitist perspective 122 6.5.1. The Australian democratic malaise 125 CHAPTER 7 – APPENDICES 128 Appendix A. The Australian Election Studies and Australian Candidate Studies. 128 Appendix B. Example of agenda originality analysis. 131 Appendix C. Illustration of convergence of linear and ordinal models. 133 Appendix D. Participant political log instruments. 134 Appendix E. Attempts to replicate McAllister’s (1991) second-order factor analysis 145 Appendix F. Inter-coefficient distances. 147 REFERENCES 149 vi List of Figures and Tables Table 2.1. Key characteristics of the aggregative-pluralist and elitist perspectives. 37 Table 3.1. Participant log and electoral event dates. 51 Figure 4.1. Average inter-coefficient distances for candidates and voters on competition and authority issues (percentage points). 63 Figure 4.2. Inter-coefficient distances between ALP and Coalition candidates (percentage points). 66 Figure 4.3. Inter-coefficient distances between ALP and Coalition voters (percentage points) 68 Table 4.4. Mean candidate and voter left-right placements. 69 Figure 4.5. Inter-coefficient distances between ALP voters and candidates (percentage points). 71 Figure 4.6. Inter-coefficient distances between Coalition voters and candidates (percentage points). 73 Figure 4.7. Taxes. 75 Figure 4.8. Redistribution. 76 Figure 4.9. Union power 77 Figure 4.10. Regulate unions. 78 Figure 4.11. Marijuana. 79 Figure 4.12. Reinstate death penalty. 80 Figure 4.13. Stiffer sentences. 81 Figure 4.14. Sex and nudity in media. 81 Table 5.1. Participant demographic and political information. 92 Table 5.2. Level of political awareness by vote in House of Representatives. 94 Figure 5.3. Participant vs. leader agenda originality. 108 Table 5.4. Delayed participant vs. leader agenda originality. 109 Table 7.1. Metadata for Australian Election and Candidate Studies, 1990-2010. 130 Table 7.2. Example of Agenda Convergence (Week 1 - 19 - 25 July). 132 Table 7.3. High income tax makes people less willing to work hard - 2010 voters (coefficients). 133 Table 7.4. High income tax makes people less willing to work hard - 2010 voters (odds ratios). 133 Table 7.5. Pattern matrix from first-order factor analysis of voter attitudes (2010).† 145 Table 7.6. Second order factor analysis of voter attitudes (2010). 146 Table 7.7. Income and wealth should be redistributed toward ordinary working people (voters 1990). 147 Table 7.8. Inter-coefficient distances between partisan voters and partisan candidates. 148 Table 7.9. Inter-coefficient distances between Labor and Coalition voters and candidates. 148 vii Chapter 1 - Introduction A bad second week for the government has prompted Prime Minister Julia Gillard to take charge of Labor’s flagging campaign, amid criticism of its stage-managed and scripted style. … Ms Gillard now says she is throwing the election campaigning rule book out the window. (The Age 2010a). In many respects, the 2010 Australian Federal Election was unique. Labor’s former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was removed from office by his party in his first term on the back of poor polling, in a move that surprised political observers and angered voters.
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