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Temporal and Spatial Study of Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Greater Sydney Region Ali Akbar Rasuly University of Wollongong

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Temporal and Spatial Study of Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Greater Sydney Region Ali Akbar Rasuly University of Wollongong University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 1996 Temporal and spatial study of thunderstorm rainfall in the Greater Sydney region Ali Akbar Rasuly University of Wollongong Recommended Citation Rasuly, Ali Akbar, Temporal and spatial study of thunderstorm rainfall in the Greater Sydney region, Doctor of Philosophy thesis, School of Geosciences, University of Wollongong, 1996. http://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/1986 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL STUDY OF THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL IN THE GREATER SYDNEY REGION A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree UNIVERSITY O* DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY from UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG by ALIAKBAR RASULY B.Sc. & M.Sc. (IRAN, TABRIZ University) SCHOOL OF GEOSCIENCES 1996 CERTIFICATION The work presented herein has not been submitted to any other university or institution for a higher degree and, unless acknowledged, is my own original work. A. A. Rasuly February 1996 i ABSTRACT Thunderstorm rainfall is considered as a very vital climatic factor because of its significant effects and often disastrous consequences upon people and the natural environment in the Greater Sydney Region. Thus, this study investigates the following aspects of thunderstorm rainfall climatology of the region between 1960 to 1993. In detail, it was found that thunderstorm rainfalls in Sydney have marked diurnal and seasonal variations. They are most frequent in the spring and summer and during the late afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms occur primarily over the coastal areas and mountains, and less frequently over the lowland interior of the Sydney basin. Environmental factors, such as the local climatic factors and physiographic parameters may control thunderstorm occurrence and its associated rainfall distribution. More detailed associations, possible causal relationships, using stepwise regression indicate that thunderstorm rainfall frequency could partially be affected by air and sea temperatures, and air humidity. Accordingly, specific attention was paid to the patterns of the spatial variation of thunderstorm rainfall during the warm months (October to March) over a long time- span (34 years), using data from 191 rainfall stations. Mathematically, the gamma functions (beta and alpha values) describe and summarise the probability distribution of daily thunderstorm rainfall across the Sydney region. The findings reveal the interplay of topographic, coastal and urban effects in controlling the amount of thunderstorm rainfall in both spring and summer. A "climatologically oriented GIS" (including a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), a proximity map, and a landuse model) together with regression procedures were used to assess the relative importance of physiographic and environmental variables for six of the largest thunderstorm rainfall events. Three patterns emerged. The first is an increase in thunderstorm rainfall occurring toward the coast. The second is an increase in thunderstorm rainfall as elevation increases. Finally, the more compact the urban residential and commercialised areas the greater the amount of thunderstorm rainfall. These variables account for 70 per cent of thunderstorm rainfall variations throughout the Sydney region. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like express my very special gratitude to Associate Professor Edward Bryant, my supervisor, who gave me encouragement and support throughout the study with ideas, literature, computer programs, proof reading and much more assistance. I am as well grateful to staff and academic members of the School of Geosciences, University of Wollongong for their suggestions and support throughout my period of study. Very special thanks should be given to Professor A. Chivas, Professor M. Wilson, Associate Professor B. Young, Associate Professor G. Nanson, Associate Professor C. Woodroffe, Dr. A. Young, Dr. A. O'Neill, Dr. L. Brown, Dr. L. Head, Dr. J. Formby, Dr. G. Waitt, Dr. R. Wray, Mr. D. Price, Mr. G. Black and Ms. J. Shaw, very kind people, who gave me so much encouragement and provided much more valuable materials during my study. I also wish to thank Mr. J. Marthick for the use of his computing skills, particularly in GIS and Mr. R. Miller and Mr. D. Martin are thanked for advice on cartography. My fellow postgrads were all very helpful and understanding. Thanks must be given to all these friendly people. Grateful acknowledgment is made also to the people - at the Bureau of Meteorology Sydney Regional Office; the National Climate Centre in Melbourne; Sydney Water; the Australian Oceanographic Data Centre; the Australian Surveying and Land Information Group; and Infomaster Australia (SPANS GIS) - who kindly provided sources of data for this research. I am also grateful to my parents, relatives, friends and academic members of the Department of Geography in Tabriz University, who consistently encouraged me to finish this study in many letters. Without doubt, I am indebted to my wife and children's infinite understanding, my supporters who shared probably the entire range of emotional states with me in producing this thesis. Appreciation is offered to all. Finally, I would like to appreciate The Ministry of Culture and Higher Education of Islamic Republic of IRAN, for awarding me a scholarship and providing financial support to make this thesis possible. Yet, I deeply believe that the greatest acknowledgment is for God's support and guidance. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES « LIST OF PLATES xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Sydney Region 1 1.2 Topo-Climatic Characteristics of the Sydney Region 3 1.2.1 Topography of the Region 3 1.2.2 Climate of the Study Area 3 1.2.2.1 Rainfall Characteristics 5 1.2.2.2 Temperature Patterns 8 1.3 Objectives of This Study 9 1.4 Research Significance 10 1.5 Data Management and Modelling Techniques Applied 12 1.6 Thesis Outline by Chapters 15 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ON THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 Thunderstorm Characteristics 17 2.2.1 Life-Cycle of a Single Thunderstorm 18 2.2.2 Complex Thunderstorm Systems 19 2.3 Synoptic Weather Patterns Creating Thunderstorms 22 2.4 Climatic Variables and Thunderstorms 24 2.4.1 Air Temperature 24 2.4.2 Sea-Surface Temperature 25 2.4.3 El Nino / Southern Oscillation 28 2.5 Physiographic Parameters and Thunderstorm Rainfall 28 2.5.1 Topography and Thunderstorm Rainfall 29 2.5.2 Effects of Proximity to the Sea upon Thunderstorm Rainfall 33 2.5.3 Impacts of Urban Areas on Thunderstorm Rainfall Distribution 35 2.6 Distribution of Thunderstorms in Australia 38 2.7 Synoptic Patterns Associated with Thunderstorm Activity in Australia 40 2.7.1 Weather Systems and Thunderstorm Activity in NSW 44 iv 2.7.2 Thunderstorm Development in the Sydney Region 48 2.8 Sydney's Physiographic Parameters and Thunderstorm Rainfall 57 2.9 Conclusions 64 CHAPTER 3 TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL IN THE SYDNEY REGION 3.1 Introduction 67 3.2 Data Used 67 3.3 Methods Applied 68 3.4 Yearly Distribution of Thunderstorm Rainfall 71 3.5 Seasonal and Monthly Distributions 76 3.6 Diurnal Variation 79 3.7 Discussion 81 3.7.1 The Role of Synoptic Weather Patterns 82 3.7.2 The Effect of Climatic Factors 83 3.7.3 The Impact of Physiographic Parameters 84 3.8 Summary and Conclusion 85 CHAPTER 4 THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES 4.1 Introduction 86 4.2 Data Sources and Analysis Techniques 86 4.3 Description of Variables 87 4.3.1 Air Temperature 88 4.3.2 Sea Surface Temperature 89 4.3.3 Air Humidity 91 4.4 Correlations Matrices of Variables 92 4.5 Multiple Associations Between Variables 95 4.6 Discussion 97 4.6.1 Effects of Sea-surface Temperature 97 4.6.2 Associations Between Air Temperature and Thunderstorms 98 4.6.3 The Role of Air Humidity 100 4.7 Summary and Conclusion 102 CHAPTER 5 A REVIEW ON GIS TECHNIQUES 5.1 Introduction 103 5.2 What is a GIS? 103 5.3 Purpose of GIS 104 5.4 How GIS Operates 106 5.4.1 Data Structures in GIS 107 5.4.2 Functionality of Data in GIS 108 5.5 Implications of GIS Techniques in Climatology 110 v 5.6 Application of the GIS in Resolving Problems in Rainfall Analysis 112 5.7 Data Sources on GIS System 115 5.8 Methods Used in a SPANS GIS n5 5.8.1 Data Input 116 5.8.2 Model Building I17 5.8.3 Model Analysing I18 5.9 GIS Potential Errors n8 5.10 Summary and Conclusion 119 CHAPTER 6 THE SPATIAL VARIATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL 6.1 Introduction 121 6.2 Data Selection 121 6.3 Techniques Used 126 6.4 Thunderstorm Rainfall Selection Criteria I28 6.5 Spatial Variability of Thunderstorm Rainfall 131 6.6 Spatial Distribution of Thunderstorm Rainfall I35 6.6.1 Average Event Values I3" 6.6.2 The Biggest Events I39 6.7 Discussion *49 6.8 Summary and Conclusion I52 CHAPTER 7 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL AND PHYSIOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS 7.1 Introduction I54 7.2 Data Used 154 7.3 Techniques Employed I57 7.3.1 GIS Techniques Applied I57 7.3.1.1 Landuse Map of the Sydney Region 161 7.3.1.2 Advanced SPANS GIS Functions Used 168 7.3.2 Statistical Techniques Used 172 7.4 Topography and Rainfall from Thunderstorms 172 7.4.1 Description of Major Topographic Units 172 7.4.2 Association Between Elevation and Thunderstorm Rainfall 174 7.4.3 Association Between Aspect Classes and Rainfall
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