118 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 PEOPLE

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 119 CHAPTER SUMMARY

A Growing Population. The An Ageing Population. The total population of Stockton-on-Tees is population of the Borough is projected 194,803, and has grown by 10.1% in to increase to 211,005 people by 2039, the last 20 years, equating to 17,810 a change that will be driven primarily additional residents. During the same by an increased 65+ population. This time period, the population of Tees age group is forecast to continue to Valley grew by only 1.8%, and grow over the next 25 years; with the Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees 65+ population totalling 52,105 people Valley population has increased from in 2039 - a 54.0% increase on the 27.0% in 1995 to 29.2% in 2015. 2015 level. The population aged 90+ is projected to grow by 150% between 2015 and 2034. A Borough of Contrasts. Within Stockton-on-Tees there is quite a contrast between different parts High Educational Attainment. of the Borough; with areas of both KS2 and KS4 educational attainment relative affluence and deprivation. in Stockton-on-Tees is higher than the The variations in deprivation within national average. Stockton-on-Tees are reflective of its diversity as a Place; with large urban areas contrasting with more rural villages. A Reducing Working Age Population. The working age There are also contrasts between older population (16-64) is projected to areas that emerged and were linked to decrease by 1,971 people by 2034 from the industrial heritage of the area, and 122,849 to 120,878. newer areas that have been developed in more recent years. The contrasts in place, and housing types that result are linked to distributions of incomes Addressing the need for adult that have relationships with skills, social care through preventative employment, health and wellbeing as approaches. Across the period well as the need for adult social care. 2012-2016, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council provided on average 17,085 instances of adult social care; with 23.3% of this to people aged 18-59. Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council is seeking to work innovatively in partnership with external bodies and organisations to meet residents’ needs and reduce the need for health and social care interventions thereby improving the Borough’s economic growth prospects.

120 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Record number of A Highly Qualified Workforce. apprenticeship starts. There were In the last 10 years the proportion 2,770 apprenticeship starts amongst of the population with a NVQ Level 4 Stockton-on-Tees residents in 2015-16, qualification has grown from 25.4% which is the highest number ever of the working age population to recorded for an academic year. 36.7%. Though higher than Tees Valley and North East estimates the figure Higher level apprenticeships have is slightly lower than the national grown from just 20 starts in 2011/12 to estimate of 38.0% but the gap has 180 in 2015/16. narrowed.

High Levels of Economic Participation and potential to A Declining Number of improve. 88,700 (70.8%) residents of ‘Out-of-Work’ Benefit working age are in employment, which Claimants. There were 14,322 is lower than the national figure of Stockton-on-Tees residents claiming 73.9%. ‘out-of-work’ benefits in November 2016, A high and growing number of residents which is a record low and a reduction of are employed in higher skilled jobs and over 4,000 in the last five years. there has also been a rise in self-employment. Life Expectancy varies. Over the Wages are increasing, but period 2012-2014 life expectancy at birth in Stockton-on-Tees was 78.4 poverty exists. The ‘median’ years for a male and 82.3 years for a weekly full-time wage for a resident of female, which is lower than the national Stockton-on-Tees saw annual growth of average of 79.5 years for males and 4.4% to £522.70. 83.2 years for females. Within Annual growth of 4.2% in weekly Stockton-on-Tees estimates suggest full-time wages to £512.20 was seen for a wide variation in Ward-level life people that work in Stockton-on-Tees expectancy. businesses. Both measures are higher than the regional figures, but lower than the More 16-18 year olds are in national figure of £538.70. Education, Employment or In some areas of the Borough more Training. 92.7% of 16-18 year olds were than half of households have incomes known to be in Education, Employment that are less than the poverty threshold or Training (EET) compared to 87.4% of 60% of the national ‘median’ income nationally. after housing costs. The proportion of those Not in Education Employment or Training (NEET) has High Private Rented Housing fallen to a record low of 6.6%. Costs. At £525.00 per month, houses Only 0.7% of 16-18 year olds’ destinations for private rent cost £45.00 more than were ‘not known’, which is the 2nd lowest the North East average. of all UK Local Authorities.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 121 INTRODUCTION This Chapter examines the overall characteristics of the people that live, learn, and work in Stockton-on-Tees, and the types of occupations that they are employed in, their skill levels, earning ability, and whether the needs of businesses both now and in the future in relation to their workforce requirements are being met. Stockton-on-Tees has a population of 194,803, which reflects a high rate of population growth over the past 20 years that is set to continue; with a projected population of 211,005 in 2039. Stockton-on-Tees is part of a wider labour market catchment and ‘travel to work’ area. Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees Valley population has increased over the past 10 years to 29.2%. There are high rates of economic participation amongst working age residents, and qualifications and skills attainment continue to improve.

122 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 DEPRIVATION DEPRIVATION: RELATIVE DEPRIVATION

t is important to understand the differences These scores are grouped together into in the social, economic and environmental ‘domains’ (Figure 3.1). Further in the Chapter Icharacteristics within Stockton-on-Tees. The the domains associated with ‘Employment’, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) looks at a ‘Income’, ‘Health’ and ‘Skills’ are explored range of indicators and ranks areas known as further, and are the domains where relative Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in England deprivation is high in parts of Stockton-on-Tees. according to their relative scores. As Figure 3.1 indicates over a fifth of LSOAs are in the most deprived 10% in England in relation to ‘Employment’, ‘Income’ and ‘Health’. FIGURE 3.1: IMD DOMAINS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES AND THE PROPORTION OF LSOAs THAT ARE IN THE MOST DEPRIVED 10% OF ENGLAND’S LSOAs, 2015

23% 22% 21% 18% 18%

3% 3% 1%

Employment Income Health OverallSkills Barriers to Crime Living Services Environment Source: DCLG (2015) Index of Multiple Deprivation FIGURE 3.2: MAP OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2015 A weighting is applied to the seven Wynyard Village domains to rank areas into an overall Wolviston score as an indication of relative Seal Sands deprivation. Figure 3.2 is a map that Billingham Stillington Thorpe Thewles Whitton shows deprivation relative to the rest of

Carlton Norton Port Clarence England. Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack IMD Decile 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Billingham, Norton, Thornaby and Fairfield Stockton 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Hartburn Teesdale Stockton have areas of both high and low 1 2 deprivation, whilst Ingleby Barwick, Yarm, 3 Thornaby 4 Long Newton Wynyard and other rural areas are some of 5 Eaglescliffe 6 the least deprived areas in the country. 7 Ingleby Barwick 8 Egglescliffe Maltby 9 10 Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington

Source: DCLG (2015) Index of Multiple Deprivation

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 123 KEY FACTS: POPULATION

AVERAGE AGE OF A STOCKTON-ON-TEES RESIDENT IS 194,803 40.3 YEARS (UK = 40.0 YEARS) PEOPLE LIVE IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES (MID-2015)

POPULATION WILL INCREASE IN THE GROW TO NUMBER 54% OF PEOPLE 211,005 AGED 65+ (BY 2039) (BY 2039)

90+ POPULATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY OVER 150% (BY 2034)

MID-2015 POPULATION CHANGES ARE DUE TO:

487 437 -217 MORE BIRTHS THAN DEATHS MORE PEOPLE COMING IN FROM FEWER PEOPLE COMING IN FROM INTERNATIONAL DESTINATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE UK THAN THAN GOING OUT GOING OUT (MID-2015)

WORKING AGE POPULATION (16-64) FORECAST TO DECREASE TO WORKING AGE POPULATION (16-64) 122,849 120,872 (MID-2015) (BY 2033)

124 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 POPULATION POPULATION: TRENDS

he population of Stockton-on-Tees is 194,803 at 2015 and has grown by 10.1% in the last 20 years; this equates to 17,810 additional residents (Figure 3.3). During the same time period Tthe population of Tees Valley grew by only 1.8% to 667,469 and the North East by only 1.6%. Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees Valley population has increased from 27.0% in 1995 to 29.2% in 2015. FIGURE 3.3: POPULATION CHANGE, 2015

Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East United Kingdom

0.4% 1 year 0.2% change 0.2% 0.8%

2.0% 5 year 1.0% change 1.5% 3.7%

4.5% 10 year 2.1% change 3.0% 7.8%

10.1% 20 year 1.8% change 1.6% 12.2%

Source: ONS (2016) - Population Estimates (Mid-2015)

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 125 The Borough of Stockton-on-Tees consists of 26 Wards that form a Unitary Local Authority area. Five Wards had experienced more than 20% growth in population over the last 10 years and 12 Wards had seen up to 10% reduction (Figure 3.4) between 2005-2015. The population increases in most of those 5 Wards was as the result of housing growth. FIGURE 3.4: ESTIMATED POPULATION OF STOCKTON-ON-TEES WARDS, 2005 TO 2015

5,846 Billingham West 5,281 6,091 Fairfield 5,602 6,894 Hartburn 6,443

5-10% Reduction 9,424 Billingham North 8,808 6,789 Bishopsgarth and Elm Tree 6,506 6,678 Stainsby Hill 6,427 2005 6,374 Norton West 6,196 2015 8,063 Norton South 7,841 6,635 Norton North 6,539 9,943 0-5% Reduction Yarm 9,858 6,631 Grangefield 6,577 7,571 Roseworth 7,534 6,734 Billingham South 6,790 10,397 Eaglescliffe 10,494 7,203 Newtown 7,354 3,237 0-10% Growth Western Parishes 3,345 7,327 Billingham East 7,578 6,960 Billingham Central 7,443 6,201 Stockton Town Centre 6,851 6,451 Village 7,152

10-12% Growth 6,553 Hardwick 7,306 7,214 Parkfield and Oxbridge 8,756 8,660 Ingleby Barwick East 10,515 9,943 Mandale and Victoria 12,172 9,590 Ingleby Barwick West 11,782 20-25% Growth 2,941 Northern Parishes 3,653

Source: ONS (2016) - Ward Level Population Estimates Mid-2015 (Experimental Statistics)

126 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 POPULATION: AGE

he population aged 16-64 (commonly known as the ‘working age’ population) in 2015 was 122,849 in Stockton-on-Tees, which reached a peak in 2011 of 124,474 (Figure 3.5). By 2015 Tthis had reduced by 1,625 people and is forecast to reduce further to a low of 120,872 in 2033. The total population of the Borough is projected to increase to 211,005 people by 2039; a change that will be primarily driven by an increased 65+ population. This age group is forecast to continue to grow over the next 25 years; with the 65+ population totalling 52,105 people in 2039 - a 54.0% increase on the 2015 level.

The number of 16 and 17 year olds resident in the Borough has fallen from a peak of 5,585 in 2008 and will continue to fall to a low of 4,205 in 2018. It is then projected to increase over ten years to 5,266. In 2010 there were an estimated 17,976 18-24 year olds resident in Stockton-on-Tees, which has since fallen and is forecast to continue to fall to a low of 15,048 in 2023 before rising again.

From a peak in 1996 of 66,363 the population aged 25-49 has declined and is projected to decline further to a low of 62,762 in 2022. Whilst the 59–64 age group has grown in the last 10 years it is projected that this will only continue until 2021 (exceeding 40,000 people) before going into decline and reducing to 34,218 people by 2039.

FIGURE 3.5: POPULATION BY AGE OF STOCKTON-ON-TEES RESIDENTS FROM 1991-2015 COMBINED WITH THE LATEST POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 2016 TO 2039

70,000 25 to 49 60,000 Estimates Projections

65+ 50,000

40,000 0 to 15

on s 50 to 64 rs 30,000 Pe

20,000 18 to 24

10,000 16 to 17 0

19911993 19951997 1999 2001 2003 2005 200720092011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Source: ONS (2016) - Population Estimates (Mid-2015) and ONS (2016) - Population Projections (Mid-2014)

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 127 The most significant trend shown from the data This has shaped the age structure of the UK is the recent and projected rise in the number and Stockton-on-Tees’ population for the past of people aged 65+. This age group was already 65 years, and will continue to do so as the growing due to increasing life expectancy and proportion of the total population aged 65+ is advances in health care, but in 2011 the growth projected to increase from 17.3% in 2015 to began to accelerate. 24.3% in 2039.

From 1946, there was a marked increase in the ‘Median’ ages can give an indication of the birth rate, and it is this date that marked the relative ages of population groups and start of the ‘baby boom’ era. Figure 3.6 explores the different ‘median’ ages across the Borough. There is generally a pattern of older population groups to the West, North West, and South of the Borough. FIGURE 3.6: MEDIAN AGE36 OF RESIDENTS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES BY LOWER SUPER OUTPUT AREAS (LSOAs37), 2015

Wynyard Village

Wolviston

Seal Sands

Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham Whitton

Carlton Norton Port Clarence Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack Median age of residents (mid-2015) Fairfield Stockton

Hartburn Teesdale 0.0 - 31.9 31.9 - 34.1 34.1 - 35.9 35.9 - 38.5 Thornaby 38.5 - 41.4 Long Newton 41.4 - 44.2 44.2 - 45.7 Eaglescliffe 45.7 - 48.0 48.0 - 50.2 Ingleby Barwick 50.2 - 60.5

Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: ONS (2016) - Population Estimates (Mid-2015)

36 ‘Median’ ages are the point at which an equal number (50%) of the population are aged above and below 37 A Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) is a statistical geography used in the Census to collect and publish small area statistics. LSOAs have a rough average resident population of 1,500 people, a minimum of 1,000 and a maximum of 3,000.

128 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Ward populations range from under 4,000 people Less than 6% of the population are aged 18-24 in the Western and Northern Parishes of the in Yarm and Northern Parishes whilst in the 2 Borough to over 12,000 in Mandale and Victoria. Wards of Stockton Town Centre and Mandale and Victoria this age group makes up 17.5% and Figure 3.7 shows the age distribution of 16.2% of the population respectively. These 2 Ward-level populations. Of note, is that only 6.2% Wards are known to have higher concentrations of the Ingleby Barwick West Ward population of flats and student housing. are aged 65+ compared to the Borough average of 17.3% and national average of 17.8% of the The 3 Wards with the largest working age population. This contrasts with Billingham West population (aged 16-64) are Stockton Town where 33.0% of residents are aged 65+. These 2 Centre, Parkfield and Oxbridge, and Mandale Wards are also at opposite ends of the spectrum and Victoria, whilst the 3 Wards with the lowest for population aged 0-15; with only 12.5% of the are Billingham West, Hartburn, and Norton Billingham West population in this age group West. compared to 25.7% in Ingleby Barwick West.

Ingleby Barwick West also has the highest proportion of 16-17 year olds at 3.4% compared to Norton South, Norton West and Village Wards with 1.8% of the population aged 16-17. FIGURE 3.7: ESTIMATED SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF POPULATION BY AGE GROUP OF STOCKTON-ON-TEES’ WARDS, 201538 Percentage of Total Population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Western Parishes 3,345 Northern Parishes 3,653 Billingham West 5,281 Fairfield 5,602 Norton West 6,196 Stainsby Hill 6,427 Hartburn 6,443 Bishopsgarth and Elm Tree 6,506 Norton North 6,539 Grangefield 6,577 Billingham South 6,790 Stockton Town Centre 6,851 2015 Village 7,152 Population Hardwick and Salters Lane 7,306 Newtown 7,354 Billingham Central 7,443 Roseworth 7,534 Billingham East 7,578 Norton South 7,841 0-15 Parkfield and Oxbridge 8,756 16-17 Billingham North 8,808 18-24 Yarm 9,858 Eaglescliffe 10,494 25-49 Ingleby Barwick East 10,515 50-64 Ingleby Barwick West 11,782 65+ Mandale and Victoria 12,172

Source: ONS (2016) - Ward Level Population Estimates (Mid-2015) (Experimental Statistics)

38 Despite these statistics being marked as experimental they are used extensively as an official and valid dataset.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 129 POPULATION: COMPONENTS OF CHANGE

n order to understand whether population International migration saw an outflow of change is a result of natural change (births 557 people from Stockton-on-Tees to another Iand deaths) or the migration of people an country, and an inflow of 994 people, resulting in analysis of these components is required. a net growth of 437 from international migration. During 2014-2015 it was estimated that the population of Stockton-on-Tees grew by 634 Internal migration (movement to and from (growth of 0.35%). This is a higher rate of Stockton-on-Tees from other areas of the UK) growth than that seen in Tees Valley and the saw a decline of 217 people. This was as a result North East yet is less than half the growth seen of a marginally greater increase in the outflow of nationally. people at 6,659 compared to an inflow of 6,442. The impact on these components of change There were 2,361 births and 1,874 deaths in to the population is shown proportionately in Stockton-on-Tees during 2014 and 2015, so Figure 3.8 and includes comparisons between the natural change in the population saw an Tees Valley, the North East and the UK. increase of 487 people.

FIGURE 3.8: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN POPULATION BY COMPONENTS OF CHANGE, 2015

Births and Deaths Internal Migration International Migration Other Adjustments

0.25% -0.11% Stockton-on-Tees 0.23% -0.01%

0.13% -0.16% Tees Valley 0.21% 0.01%

0.00% -0.01% North East 0.24% -0.01%

0.26% 0.00% United Kingdom 0.53% 0.01%

Source: ONS (2016) - Population Estimates Mid-2015

Natural change was the biggest driver of There was little change due to internal migration population change in Stockton-on-Tees whilst in the North East, however both Tees Valley and elsewhere international migration had a larger Stockton-on-Tees experienced more people influence. Net international migration resulted leaving the Borough than arriving from other in comparable growth to the population of parts of the UK. Stockton-on-Tees, Tees Valley and the North East (0.21% to 0.24%), which was less than half that seen in the UK as a whole (0.53%).

130 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 POPULATION: STOCKTON-ON-TEES IN 2034

opulation estimates and projections from the Office for National Statistics are official datasets that enable an analysis to be undertaken of the changing age and gender structure of the Ppopulation and to make predictions about future population demographics. Population pyramids show the age and gender structure of a population with each horizontal bar representing a single year of age. Figure 3.9 provides a population pyramid for Stockton-on-Tees in 2014 (shaded bars) and a population pyramid for 2034 (clear bars). Labels are statements that analyse the male and female populations combined.

FIGURE 3.9: AGE AND GENDER STRUCTURE OF STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2014 AND 2034

The top band is labelled 90+ and unlike the other bands, which represent a single year, this represents all residents aged over 90. Stockton-on-Tees’ 90+ population is expected to increase by over 150% by 2034

Much larger numbers of older people by 2034 due to increases in life expectancy and the large number of people born in the 1960s (children of the post WWII baby boom) moving into this age band

By 2034 the population aged By 2034 the working 44-62 will be age population smaller (16-64) is projected to decrease to 120,878

Larger numbers aged 7-19 by 2034 due to the low number of births in late 1990s to mid-2000s

Source: ONS (2016) - Population Projections (Mid-2014 based)

It is clear that the population in 2034 will have an older age profile than currently. This may have consequences in terms of the health of the population and the need for adult social care provisions. This is explored further in the ‘Health, Care and Wellbeing’ sub-section.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 131 KEY FACTS: HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING

THE STOCKTON YOUTH EMPLOYMENT FUND HAS SECURED EMPLOYMENT FOR

392 YOUNG PEOPLE FROM STOCKTON-ON-TEES SINCE OCTOBER 2013.

SURVEY RESPONSES SUGGEST A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN HEALTH AND WELLBEING AS A RESULT OF GAINING EMPLOYMENT.

ON AVERAGE, STOCKTON-ON-TEES 23% BOROUGH COUNCIL PROVIDED OF ALL ADULT SOCIAL CARE SERVICES PROVIDED IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES WAS 17,085 TO INDIVIDUALS AGED 18 TO 59 YEARS, WITH ONE THIRD OF THAT BEING GIVEN TO INDIVIDUAL INSTANCES OF ADULT SOCIAL ADULTS AGED 18–29 YEARS CARE ACROSS THE BOROUGH EACH YEAR (2012-2016) (2012-2016)

THE FIVE ADULT SOCIAL CARE SERVICES PROVIDED MOST FREQUENTLY ACROSS STOCKTON-ON-TEES WERE: OVER RESIDENTIAL CARE 60% OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY EQUIPMENT OF RESIDENTIAL CARE PROVIDED BY HOME CARE STOCKTON-ON-TEES BOROUGH COUNCIL OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY WAS FOR RESPITE PURPOSES FOR ADAPTATIONS CLIENTS WITH A VARIETY OF ASSESSED INTERMEDIATE CARE SOCIAL CARE NEEDS (2012-2016) (2012-2016)

STOCKTON-ON-TEES BOROUGH IN 2016-17, LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH COUNCIL COMMISSIONED STOCKTON-ON-TEES BOROUGH IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES APPROXIMATELY COUNCIL SUPPORTED AN AVERAGE OF 11,000 HOURS 78.4 OF HOME CARE PER WEEK FOR MALES TO HELP PEOPLE LIVE 3,240 PEOPLE INDEPENDENTLY AT HOME EACH MONTH WITH EQUIPMENT OR ADAPTATIONS TO HELP 82.3 (2016-2017) THEM STAY SAFE AT HOME FOR FEMALES AND MAINTAIN THEIR (UK = 79.5 FOR MALES INDEPENDENCE AND 83.2 FOR FEMALES)

132 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING: INTRODUCTION

he health of a population has a clear relationship to an area’s economic prosperity. Improving economic prosperity has a positive impact on health as more jobs and higher Tincomes are known to have health benefits. Improving health has a positive impact on economic prosperity as healthy people are more able to gain and maintain employment and are less reliant on support such as health and social care and state benefits.

Work is beneficial in maintaining physical and mental health, and has been shown to improve it for those with long-term health conditions and for those with disabilities returning to work. Unemployment, conversely, is associated with deterioration in physical and mental health, a greater dependency on health services and a shorter life expectancy.

A recent analysis by the Office for National Statistics on the characteristics linked to Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) showed that the areas in England with the lowest healthy life expectancy had fewer people of working age economically active, a smaller proportion in employment, a higher proportion seeking work and a higher proportion economically inactive because of long-term sickness or disability. In addition more than 1 in every 10 people aged 16-64 in the lowest HLE areas were ‘limited a lot’ in daily activities because of a physical or mental health condition lasting a year or more.

Employment is one of many wider determinants of health and a complex system of socio-economic and environmental factors can influence this (Figure 3.10). Lifestyle and behavioural factors can increase the risk of developing health conditions, however, these lifestyle and behavioural factors are influenced by people’s social and community networks and their access to food, water, housing, work, leisure, culture and environment, which all impact on a person’s quality of life. FIGURE 3.10: WIDER DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH

Source: Dahlgren G, Whitehead M. 1991

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 133 Local Government, National Government and a wide range of other institutions have a role in addressing the wider determinants of health in order to overcome some of the important public health and employment challenges facing their populations (Figure 3.11).

FIGURE 3.11: THE HEALTH AND CARE SYSTEM

Source: Department of Health (2013) – The Health and Care System Explained

The Stockton-on-Tees Health and Wellbeing By targeting opportunities for people in the Board’s Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy Borough’s most deprived populations to work recognises the breadth of factors and and lead healthy lives, both the physical and organisations involved in improving health, mental health of residents as a whole will likely preventing ill-health and addressing health improve, and contribute to narrowing the gap inequalities. A systems approach is taken to between the highest and lowest HLE areas. In ensure socio-economic and environmental return, individuals and local health and social determinants of health, lifestyle and long- care services will benefit from a reduced burden term health conditions are incorporated into of chronic disease and disability, as well as priority areas for delivery. This allows some of equipping people to live fuller, longer working the significant health burdens such as heart lives; benefiting local economies. disease, cancer and respiratory illness to be tackled alongside employability and healthy working lives (Figure 3.12).

134 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.12: PREVENTION/EARLY INTERVENTION

Multiple Deprivaton → → → → → → → Poorer Health Outcomes Premature Death <75 years

Lifestyle Coronary Heart Obesity Diabetes Behaviour Disease and Environmental factors and Environmental Life Circumstances, Social Circumstances, Life

Prevention ← ← ← ← ← ← ← Early Intervention ← ← ← ← ← ← ←

Source: Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council, Public Health

There is currently 1 in 9 jobs in Stockton-on-Tees A growing, ageing, and changing population in the ‘Health and Social Care’ sector. There is a is likely to increase demand on the system complex system of organisations and institutions of health and care provision and the funding that have a role in improving people’s health, required for it to work effectively. It should providing health and social care, and adopting be recognised that the ageing workforce will preventative approaches that aim to reduce mean retirements are likely to increase the the risk of developing a health problem or demand for jobs and skills in the health and developing complications with an existing health care sector. Ensuring that this demand is met problem. will be essential for a healthy population and sustainable economic development.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 135 HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING: THE HEALTH OF STOCKTON-ON-TEES’ RESIDENTS

eople are living longer than ever before. In adulthood, levels of physical activity, excess New-born boys born in Stockton-on-Tees weight, alcohol-specific admissions to hospital Pin 2013-2015 can expect to live until 78.1 and hospital stays for self-harm are all years old, while girls are likely to live until significantly worse in Stockton-on-Tees than the 81.7 years old. However, statistics on ‘Healthy England average. Life Years’ (also known as disability-free life expectancy) suggest these children are likely to Premature mortality from cancer and the rate of spend at least 20% of their lives in poorer health. suicides are significantly worse in Boys born in 2013-2015 will have just 61 years of Stockton-on-Tees than the England average. good health on average, whilst girls can expect 62.3 of healthy years. Other priorities for Public Health in Stockton-on-Tees include reducing obesity, The health of people in Stockton-on-Tees is which in turn will improve the health of varied compared with the England average. In residents, including reducing the number of the most recent Public Health England ‘Health people developing Type 2 Diabetes. It is also Profile’ (Figure 3.13), 14 (out of 29) of the health crucial to identify those with undiagnosed indicators used are significantly worse than diabetes so they can be treated appropriately. the national average and only 6 indicators were Reducing illness and premature deaths due to significantly better. cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and the decline in the number of people smoking will One of the key policy objectives from the significantly contribute to this. Finally, mental ‘Marmot Review’ was to “give every child the illness and mental health continue to be a best start in life”. However, rates of smoking in priority in order to enable and empower people pregnancy, breastfeeding, teenage conceptions to reach their full potential and live happy and and under-18 alcohol-specific admissions to fulfilling lives. hospital are all significantly worse in Stockton-on-Tees than the England average.

136 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.13: HEALTH PROFILE INDICATORS, 2015 TO 2016

Source: Public Health England (2015-16)

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 137 HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING: HEALTH INEQUALITIES IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES

ver the period 2012-2014 life expectancy Stockton Town Centre has the lowest life at birth in Stockton-on-Tees is 78.4 for a expectancy at birth for males in the country Omale and 82.3 for a female, which is lower at 64.4 years. This is 20.5 years lower than than the national average of 79.5 for males and Billingham West where the life expectancy at 83.2 for females. birth for males is 84.9 years and is in the top 3% of English Wards. Like deprivation, life expectancy varies greatly within Stockton-on-Tees Figure 3.14. The pattern of health deprivation that relates to life expectancy and the relationship between Billingham West has a female life expectancy the adult social care service provisions is of 89.8 years, which is in the top 2% of Wards in explored further in the subsequent pages. the country. This equates to 16 years more than female life expectancy in Stockton Town Centre Ward, which at 73.8 years is the joint lowest in the country.

138 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.14: WARD-BASED LIFE EXPECTANCY IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2012 TO 201439

Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Billingham West

Northern Parishes (No Male data) Hartburn

Yarm

Billingham North

Ingleby Barwick East

Bishopsgarth and Elm Tree

Eaglescliffe

Billingham East

Grangefield

Fairfield

Norton West

Western Parishes

Billingham South

Norton North

Ingleby Barwick West

Billingham Central

Newtown

Stainsby Hill Stockton-on-Tees Female

Village Stockton-on-Tees Male England Female Roseworth England Male Norton South North East Female North East Male Parkfield and Oxbridge

Hardwick and Salters Lane

Mandale and Victoria

Stockton Town Centre

Source: ONS (2015 ) Life Expectancy at Birth and at Age 65 by Local Areas in England and Wales (2012-2014) 39 Figures are estimates and subject to a confidence range (not shown). See source material for more information and methodological limitations.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 139 There are areas of relative high and low • Years of potential life lost deprivation in Stockton-on-Tees. Deprivation is strongly associated with poorer health • Comparative illness and disability ratio and need for some types of adult social care services (i.e. those that are means tested) • Acute morbidity throughout their life course as well as reduced • Mood and anxiety disorders life expectancy. The relative health deprivation within Stockton-on-Tees and the range of adult As 1 provider of Adult Social Care, social care provision is explored below, with the Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council delivers map on the left representing health deprivation a range of provisions and services with the and the map on the right showing where adult 5 most common of these being: Home Care, social care provision is more concentrated. Residential Care, Occupational Therapy Equipment, Occupational Therapy Adaptations The Index of Multiple Deprivation has a specific and Intermediate Care. More care is provided to domain relating to ‘Health’ that scores Lower areas of higher deprivation. Super Output Areas (LSOAs) based on the following indicators:

Wynyard Village

Wolviston

Seal Sands

Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham Whitton

Carlton Norton Port Clarence Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack IMD Decile 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Fairfield Stockton 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Hartburn Teesdale 1 2 Thornaby 3 Long Newton 4 Eaglescliffe 5 6 Ingleby Barwick 7 8 Maltby Egglescliffe 9 10 Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington

140 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Newtown – Highest number of service Wynyard Village provisions for Residential Care Northern Parishes – Lowest number of service provisions for Wolviston all 5 of the most common Adult Social Care services Seal Sands

Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham Whitton

Carlton Norton Port Clarence Hardwick and Salters Roseworth Lane - Highest number Redmarshall Hardwick of service provisions for Portrack Total Annual Average number Occupational Therapy of Adult Social Care services Adaptations and Fairfield Stockton provisions 2012/13 - 2015/16 Occupational Therapy Equipment Hartburn Teesdale 116 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 600 600 - 800 Thornaby 800 - 1000 Long Newton 1000 - 1200 1200 - 1400 Eaglescliffe 1400 - 1600 1600 - 1745 Ingleby Barwick

Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington Mandale and Victoria – Highest number of service provisions for Home Care and Intermediate Care

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 141 HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING: ADULT SOCIAL CARE PROVISION

eople experiencing health inequalities Across the period 2012-2016, Stockton-on-Tees will be unwell for a greater proportion of Borough Council provided 17,085 instances of Ptheir lives. Poor health and deprivation Adult Social Care (Figure 3.15). Some clients can directly impact the assessed need for adult have complex, multi-faceted care packages social care, and therefore there is a higher comprised of more than 1 type of service and likelihood to have a greater need for a wide more than 1 provision of a single type of service variety of public services and interventions. during the year (e.g. residential respite care on Inequalities result in varied health and social more than one occasion, day care, transport, care support/interventions in these communities home care and occupational therapy equipment). versus the population overall. Poor health and some adult social care needs are, however, Others are in receipt of relatively simple and preventable. small care packages, comprised of 1 instance of provision of 1 type of social care service (e.g. Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council is ideally ramp installed outside home). placed to prevent health and care inequalities through its ambitions and priorities for economic With a significantly ageing population the need growth and by allocating health and care for adult social care is likely to increase, however resources along with other resources (e.g. sport it should be noted that it is not just older people and leisure) in proportion to need. Adult Social who require service provision - services are Care is a part of the Health and Social Care provided to adults of all ages, and 23.3% of Adult System that provides direct services to people Social Care provisions were provided to clients with an assessed need, and the demand for its under the age of 60 across the 2012-2016 period. services directly correlates with the health of the Many people have complex conditions and have Borough’s population. an assessed need for often very high cost and specialist Adult Social Care Services.

142 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.15: AVERAGE AMOUNT OF ADULT SOCIAL CARE PROVISIONS BY CLIENT AGE CATEGORY, 2012 TO 2016

CLIENT AGE CATEGORY AVERAGE AMOUNT OF ALL ADULT PROPORTION OF THE 18+ SOCIAL CARE PROVIDED POPULATION (2016) (2012–2016)

Up to 20 years 0.6% 3.0%

20 – 29 years 6.1% 16.6%

30 – 39 years 3.6% 15.9%

40 – 49 years 4.6% 17.3%

50 – 59 years 8.4% 17.8%

60 – 69 years 10.7% 14.4%

70 – 79 years 17.0% 9.4%

80 – 89 years 31.5% 4.8%

90+ years 17.5% 0.9%

Source: Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council, Adult Social Care Strategy 2017-2020

Research suggests that the younger a person is when they develop a lifelong condition the more likely they are to require access to higher intensity Health and Social Care support earlier, and throughout their life. It is not always possible to prevent the need for Adult Social Care.

• Younger people typically have an assessed need for Adult Social Care Services when they have a learning disability, a mental health issue, a sensory impairment and/or a physical disability. Their need for such support does not disappear when they become older and may in fact become greater and more complex. Their need for health care support is also likely to increase as they grow older.

• Older people typically have an assessed need for Adult Social Care as a result of being unable to live entirely independently (quite often this is following a hospital discharge for acute health reasons), poor health and/or Dementia.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 143 HEALTH, CARE AND WELLBEING: PREVENTION BASED APPROACHES IMPROVE HEALTH AND THE ECONOMY

ost services that are provided by Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council is seeking Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council can ever more frequently to work innovatively Mbe considered a primary prevention- in partnership with external bodies and based approach, as many of the functions of the organisations to meet residents’ needs and Council are aimed at improving the economic reduce the need for Health and Social Care prosperity of residents, providing opportunities interventions, thereby improving the Borough’s for social mobility/social wellbeing, and economic growth prospects. improving the quality of the environment; all of which contribute positively to improving Figure 3.16 summarises the prevention based the quality of life for people and subsequently approaches to maximising independence across reducing the risk of them developing health the Borough’s adult population and to prevent problems. negative health outcomes at a range of levels.

FIGURE 3.16: PREVENTION BASED APPROACHES TO MAXIMISE INDEPENDENCE

Our approaches to prevention... Who we do this with/ for…

Primary People without social care needs and/or diagnosed community focused, promote health and health problems wellbeing, address social, economic and environmental risk factors to help stop people from developing a need for our services

Secondary People at risk of developing social care screen high risk individuals, control needs and/or diagnosed risk factors and provide early help services to identify, minimise or health problems alleviate risks

Tertiary rehabilitation, long term community People with assessed based support, social care needs and/or preventing diagnosed health problems complications and improving quality of life to stop needs becoming greater

Source: Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council, Adult Social Care Strategy 2017-2020

144 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 By Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council adopting a primary prevention approach to target those people currently without social care needs and/or health problems, the aim is to improve wellbeing, socio-economic and environmental condition risk factors that would stop people requiring the need for intensive and/or long-term service provisions.

CASE STUDY: PRIMARY PREVENTATIVE APPROACH THE STOCKTON-ON-TEES YOUTH EMPLOYMENT FUND

he Stockton Youth Employment Fund has The project to date has helped secure been supported by Public Health funding employment for 392 young people from Tsince October 2013. The project supports Stockton-on-Tees. local employers by means of a grant to help them create new apprenticeship opportunities Figure 3.17 clearly demonstrates the change in for Stockton-on-Tees’ residents aged 16-24. the young people’s health and wellbeing after being in employment for 13 weeks. Research has shown that employment is good for health and wellbeing. It contributes to people’s happiness, and helps build confidence and self-esteem. Being in work challenges people and gives them the means to develop themselves. It gives a sense of pride, identity and personal achievement. People in work tend to enjoy happier and healthier lives than those who are not in work. People’s physical and mental health is generally improved through work; they recover from illness quicker and are at less risk of long-term illness and incapacity.

FIGURE 3.17: INCREASE IN YOUNG PEOPLE ANSWERING “OFTEN” AND “ALL THE TIME” ON A RANGE OF QUESTIONS RELATED TO HEALTH AND WELLBEING AFTER 13 WEEKS IN EMPLOYMENT

35% 32% 30% 27% 25% 25% 25% 25% 22% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20% 17% 16% 15% 14% 10% 5% 5% 0% e e y e d xed Well ela

gy to Spar eeling love oblems F Feeling Useful eeling cheerful Feeling R Ener Thinking Clearl eeling Confident F F ested in new things ested in Other People Inter eeling Good about myself Inter eling close to other peopl Optimistic about the futur Dealing with Pr F Fe up my own mind about things ke

Able to ma

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 145 CASE STUDY: PRIMARY PREVENTATIVE APPROACH MULTI-DISCIPLINARY SERVICE

s part of the Better Care Fund plan, What makes the service different is that Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council has created Atogether with Hartlepool and Stockton a new team of professional people with skills Clinical Commissioning Group, North Tees and across Health, Social Care and the Voluntary, Hartlepool Foundation Trust and the Voluntary, Community and Social Enterprise Sector (VCSE). Community and Social Enterprise Sector (VCSE) They undertake a single integrated health and established a Multi-Disciplinary Service (MDS). wellbeing assessment and develop an integrated The aim of this service is to provide a truly health and wellbeing care plan. The team then integrated Health and Social Care Service that co-ordinates a person’s care for up to 6 weeks. enables people to: Any interventions that are commissioned on • Tell their story only once behalf of the service user are free for six weeks and may include reablement, care call, grab • Remain safely at home for as long as possible rails, walking aids and referrals on to the VCSE for those people who are lonely and isolated. • Prevent, reduce and delay the need for The Multi-Disciplinary Service has a Stockton long-term packages of social care Welfare Advice Network manager co-located with the team who facilitates benefits checks • Prevent non-elective admissions to hospital for clients. This has led to service users gaining • Reducing inappropriate admissions of older over £1m in entitlements that they were not people (65+) into residential care previously claiming.

• Connect people who are socially isolated In September 2016, the Multi-Disciplinary Service was recognised nationally as the The service can be accessed by people aged 65+ best ‘Health and Wellbeing Initiative’ by the living in the Borough of Stockton-on-Tees that Association for Public Service Excellence (APSE). have a Health or Social Care need and are not currently working with a social worker.

146 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Secondary approaches aim to screen high risk individuals and control risk factors. This provision of early help aims to identify, minimise and alleviate risks. An example of a secondary approach would be the Smoking Cessation Service.

CASE STUDY: SECONDARY PREVENTATIVE APPROACH CONTINUING EXCELLENCE OF THE BETTER HEALTH AT WORK AWARD

aterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining Cequipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company principally operates through its three product segments - Resource Industries, Construction Industries and Power Systems - and also provides financing and related services through its Financial Products segment.

Caterpillar Stockton employs approximately 200 shop floor workers, which are mainly fabricators, logistics and office staff. There is also an apprentice programme that has been running since 2011. The Stockton facility produces fabricated parts for earth moving equipment, and at the time of the routine health surveillance was operating a two-shift system.

It was noted during the health surveillance that A shed was erected in the staff canteen; this was there were a significant number of employees not only designed to ‘catch the eye’ and draw who had a greater than average body mass attention to the campaign but it was also used index. There were also a large number of as a health promotion environment and was employees suffering from hypertension. It filled with health promotion literature regarding was decided that based upon these findings a heart health, lowering blood cholesterol, campaign would be launched addressing the hypertension and dietary information. 5 drop in issues of healthy diet, weight loss and general sessions termed as ‘Stake in the Ground Checks’ cardiovascular health. As the vast majority of were held in the canteen for the employees to workers at the facility are male it was deemed come and see the Occupational Health Advisor. appropriate to give the campaign a male They had their blood cholesterol, blood glucose, emphasis. It was based upon an article, “The weight and blood pressure assessed. The curious claim that men with sheds live longer”. employees were provided with their results, The article appeared in national newspapers and advice provided, and if appropriate were referred health magazines and was discussing a study to their General Practitioner. The employees that had been published in the British Medical were invited to have a second assessment Journal. The campaign was named ‘Shed the undertaken after 6 months to Pounds’. re-assess the Occupational Health Advisor’s initial observations.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 147 Where risk factors or health issues have developed to the extent where people have an assessed social care need and/or health problem, tertiary approaches aim to rehabilitate, prevent complications, and improve the quality of life of people to stop any need becoming greater.

CASE STUDY: TERTIARY PREVENTATIVE APPROACH REHABILITATION SERVICES AT ROSEDALE CENTRE, STOCKTON-ON-TEES

He was diagnosed with COPD approximately 4 years ago and has recently attended a pulmonary rehabilitation class at University Hospital North Tees. His medical history also includes panic attacks and depression. He was previously a smoker prior to admission into hospital, however has since decided to cease smoking.

Following assessment by an Occupational Therapist he began his rehabilitation programme, which included transfer practice, mobility progression, balance work and strengthening exercises. He would also need to be able to safely manage a full flight of stairs to gain access to his home. He progressed to a ‘step around transfer’ using a zimmer frame following assessment. Throughout his stay at Rosedale Centre he required continuous resident was admitted to Rosedale Centre reassurance due to extreme anxiety. By providing for a period of further rehabilitation him with breathing exercises and techniques following a long period in hospital. He was this assisted with his panic attacks and meant A that he could continue to complete the exercises originally admitted to hospital with exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease independently. (COPD) and spent 52 days in the Intensive Following the completion of daily therapy Treatment Unit where he was intubated and sessions he progressed well; from a zimmer ventilated. During this time he went into renal frame to 2 x elbow crutches within his first week failure and also had a bleeding duodenal ulcer of therapy, and was mobilising independently and necrotic bowel that required surgery. His on discharge from Rosedale Centre. An recovery was slow and when he was discharged environmental visit was completed of his to Rosedale Centre he had not been out of home and equipment ordered, e.g. a second bed for several weeks. He was admitted as a banister rail, and he was discharged after 12 ‘rotastand’ (requiring assistance to move from days at Rosedale Centre. On completion of the one seated position to another) transfer and also rehabilitation services he was independent required maximum assistance with lie to sit due in his mobility and completing breathing and to global weakness and a healing abdominal strengthening exercises. He was referred to wound. community therapy to continue to progress his mobility.

148 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 KEY FACTS: EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS

54% 2,770 OF KEY STAGE 2 PUPILS IN APPRENTICESHIP STARTS 2016 ACHIEVED THE EXPECTED IN 2015-16 STANDARD (UK = 53.0%) HIGHEST NUMBER EVER RECORDED 88,700 92.7% STOCKTON-ON-TEES’ OF 16-18 YEAR OLDS ARE RESIDENTS IN EMPLOYMENT KNOWN TO BE IN EDUCATION, (70.8% OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION) EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING (UK = 74.0%) (UK = 87.4%) 76.8% OF THE 16-64 POPULATION HOLD A NVQ LEVEL 2 QUALIFICATION (GB = 74.3%) 41.0% OF NON-FREE SCHOOL MEALS PUPILS 36.7% PROGRESS TO HIGHER EDUCATION OF THE 16-64 POPULATION HOLD A NVQ LEVEL 4 QUALIFICATION WHEREAS ONLY (UK = 38%) 13.0% OF FREE SCHOOL MEALS PUPILS PROGRESS TO HIGHER EDUCATION BETWEEN 2014 AND 2024 4,000+ 4 OUT OF EVERY 10 JOBS FEWER ‘OUT OF WORK’ BENEFIT IN TEES VALLEY WILL NEED CLAIMANTS IN THE LAST 5 YEARS REPLACING DUE TO RETIREMENTS (SINCE 2011)

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 149 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: SKILLS DEPRIVATION

he Index of Multiple Deprivation has a ‘Skills’ domain, which combines a range of indicators associated with levels of skills for both young people and adults (Figure 3.18). These indicators Tinclude: • Key Stage 2 attainment

• Key Stage 4 attainment

• Secondary School absence

• Proportion staying on in Post-16 Education

• Proportion of young people under 21 not entering Higher Education

• Adult Skills

• English Language proficiency

Relative deprivation across the Borough is shown in the inset and the proportion of LSOAs that fall in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs in the country for each of the seven domains that relative deprivation is assessed against. 18% of LSOAs in Stockton-on-Tees are in the most deprived 10% nationally for the ‘Skills’ domain. There is a strong correlation between areas that have skills deprivation and areas that have other types of deprivation.

150 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.18: SKILLS DEPRIVATION IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2015

IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston 1 2 Seal Sands 3 4 Stillington Billingham Thorpe Thewles 5 Whitton 6 7 Carlton Norton Port Clarence 8 Roseworth 9 Redmarshall Hardwick 10 Portrack Fairfield Stockton See start of Chapter for overall deprivation Hartburn Teesdale IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston Thornaby 1 Seal Sands 2 Long Newton 3 Billingham Stillington Thorpe Thewles 4 Eaglescliffe Whitton 5 6 Carlton Norton Port Clarence 7 Ingleby Barwick Roseworth 8 Redmarshall Hardwick 9 Portrack Maltby 10 Egglescliffe Fairfield Stockton

Hartburn Teesdale Yarm

Thornaby Long Newton Hilton Eaglescliffe Ingleby Barwick

Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm Kirklevington 23% 22% 21% 18% 18% Hilton

3% 3% Kirklevington 1%

Employment Income Health OverallSkills Barriers to Crime Living Services Environment

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: DCLG (2015) – English Indices of Multiple Deprivation

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 151 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: EDUCATION

PRIMARY EDUCATION

here are 61 primary schools in Stockton-on-Tees. Of the 58 that had OFSTED ratings as of December 2016, 13 were ‘Outstanding’, 41 were rated ‘Good’ and four ‘Required Improvement’ T(Figure 3.19). This position is better than national averages and has improved over the last 5-6 years in Stockton-on-Tees. FIGURE 3.19: OFSTED RATINGS OF PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2016

Outstanding Good Requires Improvement Inadequate

August 10 11 33 14 2

August 11 12 34 14

August 12 12 31 15

August 13 12 38 7 1

August 14 13 40 4

August 15 13 42 4

August 16 13 42 4

December 16 13 41 4

Source: OFSTED Data View

Figure 3.20 illustrates that Stockton-on-Tees’ primary schools are above the national average in terms of the percentage of pupils achieving the ‘expected standard’40 at the end of primary school Key Stage 2. Of the 2,257 eligible pupils in 2016, 54% achieved the ‘expected standard’ in Stockton-on-Tees compared to 53% nationally. The regional average at 57% is three percentage points higher than Stockton-on-Tees, which would mean an additional 68 pupils would have to achieve the ‘expected standard’ to close the gap with the regional rate.

FIGURE 3.20: PERCENTAGE OF PUPILS ACHIEVING THE EXPECTED STANDARD, 2016

Stockton-on-Tees 54%

North East 57%

England 53%

Source: Department for Education - National Curriculum Assessments: Key Stage 2

40 A pupil is deemed to have met the expected standard if they achieve a scaled score of 100+ in both the maths and reading tests at the end of KS2 and are teacher assessed as meeting the expected standard in writing.

152 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 SECONDARY EDUCATION

here are 13 secondary schools/academies/free schools in Stockton-on-Tees plus three special schools, three independent school (of which only one is secondary only) and a Pupil Referral TUnit, which provides both primary and secondary provision. Figure 3.21 illustrates that the average ‘Attainment 8’ score41 in Stockton-on-Tees in 2016 was 49.9, which is higher than the regional and national scores and has been for the two years previous. The annual increase in Stockton-on-Tees however was smaller than regionally and nationally. FIGURE 3.21: AVERAGE ‘ATTAINMENT 8’ SCORES PER PUPIL, 2015 AND 2016

Stockton-on-Tees North East England 49.90

48.80 48.70 48.50

47.40 47.00

2015 2016 Source: Department for Education - Revised GCSE and Equivalent Results in England: 2015 to 2016 Figure 3.22 shows that the percentage of pupils achieving the English Baccalaureate42, had doubled since 2011 in Stockton-on-Tees after five consecutive years of growth. Between 2011 and 2013 the percentage was below the national average, but has consistently grown year-on-year, and between 2014 and 2016 the percentage of pupils achieving the English Baccalaureate was higher than the national figure and in 2016 was 26.2%. FIGURE 3.22: PERCENTAGE OF PUPILS ACHIEVING THE ENGLISH BACCALAUREATE, 2011 TO 2016 Stockton-on-Tees North East England 26.20 25.60 23.80 23.10 23.00 22.90 22.80 22.00 21.80 21.60 19.70 19.60 18.30 17.60 15.00 13.10 13.10 11.80

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Department for Education - Revised GCSE and Equivalent Results in England: 2015 to 2016

41 Attainment 8 is a student’s average attainment across eight subjects including English and Maths 42 The English Baccalaureate (EBacc) is a school performance measure. It allows people to see how many pupils get a grade C or above in the core academic subjects at Key Stage 4 in any Government-funded school.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 153 FURTHER EDUCATION – DESTINATIONS AND LEVEL 3 QUALIFICATIONS

ees Valley has six Further Education Figure 3.23 illustrates the average point score Colleges, including Stockton Riverside per ‘A’ level entry in Stockton-on-Tees compared TCollege, and four Sixth Form Colleges, to the North East and England. The including Stockton Sixth Form College, Stockton-on-Tees ‘A’ level entry score of 214.3 along with a number of School Sixth Forms, in 2015 was higher than previous years, but has Independent, Maintained and Special Schools. remained lower than national averages over the previous five years. After the age of 16, the majority of people stay on in education or training. After two terms (October to March 2014-2015) 93% of the 2,060 pupils from the previous year’s cohort had achieved an overall ‘sustained education’ or ‘employment/training’ destination, which sits in between the national (94%) and regional (92%) figures.

FIGURE 3.23: AVERAGE POINT SCORE PER ‘A’ LEVEL ENTRY, 2010 TO 2015

Stockton-on-Tees North East England 216.20 215.90 214.60 214.40 214.30 213.80 213.70 212.80 212.50 211.20 210.60 210.70 209.90 210.20 208.50 208.50 208.00 207.30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Department for Education – ‘A’ Level Attainment

‘A’ levels are Level 3 qualifications and considered to be an academic qualification, although many students achieve a Level 3 qualification through more vocational routes (Figure 3.24).

Level 3 qualification achievements in the under-19 age group have increased from 1,240 in 2011-2012 to 2,130 in 2015-2016, which equates to a 72% increase compared to 39% regionally and 52% nationally (Figure 3.24) over the same time period.

154 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 FIGURE 3.24: FULL LEVEL 2 AND LEVEL 3 ACHIEVEMENTS FOR RESIDENTS AGED 19 AND UNDER, 2011-2012 TO 2015-16

Full Level 2 Full Level 3

2,130

1,620 1,430 1,330 1,240

930 970 810 790 610

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Source: DFE - FE Data Library: Further Education and Skills

Estimates suggest that the proportion of Stockton-on-Tees’ residents who hold an NVQ Level 3+ qualification has increased in the last decade and at 54.6% is currently higher than the regional and Tees Valley averages at 52.3% and 52.4% respectively, but lower than the national figure of 56.7% (Figure 3.25)43.This rise in Level 3 achievements coincides with a fall in Level 2 achievements, which is a trend repeated regionally and nationally. FIGURE 3.25: PROPORTION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION QUALIFIED TO NVQ LEVEL 3+, 2006 TO 2016

58.0 Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East United Kingdom

56.0 ) (%

n 54.0 io at 52.0 popul 50.0 64 - 16 48.0 of

ge

ta 46.0 cen 44.0 Per

42.0

40.0 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Year Ending

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016

43 It is not possible to determine whether the fall in Stockton-on-Tees after the year ending December 2015 is due to a declining proportion of the population qualified to NVQ Level 3 or is due to sampling error.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 155 YOUNG PEOPLE IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (EET)

he majority of residents aged 16-18 are It is important to consider ‘NEET’ figures in the in education, employment or training context of those 16-18 year olds that are defined T(currently 92.7%), however there are still as ‘not known’ by Local Authorities. In England those that are out of work. Some may be ‘actively 4.2% of 16-18 year olds were in the category ‘not seeking work’ and some may be ‘economically known’ so could therefore be NEET. In inactive’ for reasons such as looking after Stockton-on-Tees only 0.7% of 16 18 year family or because of illness. The number of olds were in the ‘not known’ category, which 16-18 year olds in Stockton-on-Tees not in is the second lowest out of all English Local education, employment or training (NEET) has Authorities (Figure 3.26). been similar to the England average in previous years, although in 2015 the figure reduced to 6.6% of the 16-18 year old population, which is approximately 440 less young people44 (Figure 3.26). FIGURE 3.26: 16-18 YEAR OLDS NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET), 2011 TO 2015

Stockton-on-Tees England

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total 15 11.3 10.3 10 7.3 Total 15.5 16.6 14.5 13.7 12.6 Not Known 4.7 2.2 1.7 1 0.7 Not Known 6.1 5.8 5.3 4.7 4.2 NEET 10.3 9.1 8.6 9 6.6 NEET 9.4 10.8 9.2 9.0 8.4

Source: Department for Education - NEET and Participation Statistics

44 2015 data used are an average taken at the end of November and December 2015 and January 2016

156 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 CASE STUDY: YOUNG PEOPLE THAT ARE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET) - LOCAL INTELLIGENCE

very young person who becomes ‘NEET’ Youth Direction has developed a ‘Risk of ‘NEET’ is estimated to cost the economy an extra Indicator’ (RONI), which is highly accurate in E£56,00045. In Stockton-on-Tees a strong identifying the young people that need additional partnership between Stockton-on-Tees Borough support – and services are therefore directed Council’s Youth Direction Service and Schools at this group of young people from Year 11 and Learning Providers has reduced the number onwards. Since the RONI was first used to target of ‘NEET’ young people in Stockton-on-Tees by support in 2013-2014, the ‘NEET’ rate has fallen over 200; a reduction of 35.0% in three years. from over 8.6% of the 16-18 year old population This has saved the economy nearly £12m. to 6.6% in 2015.

This huge impact is the result of more effective Monitoring of those young people who become targeting of resources, working with those most ‘NEET’ is undertaken by Stockton-on-Tees in need of support to make strong and sustained Borough Council’s Youth Direction Service to transitions into post-16 learning; more efficient enable a level of intelligence to be gathered that and effective support to those who do become can dispel some myths associated with young ‘NEET’ in order to make their transition back people who are ‘NEET’ (Figure 3.27). into work or learning speedier and more relevant; more and supported post-16 provision aimed at those who were finding it difficult to make swift and linear progression through to the next level of qualifications. FIGURE 3.27: LOCAL INTELLIGENCE ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING NEET), 2016 TO 2017

MYTH REALITY

‘NEET’ young people have no Over half of new ‘NEETs’ had left/completed Level 2 or Level 3 qualifications provision

Young people who become ‘NEET’ The single biggest cause of becoming ’NEET’ is successfully drop out of learning completing a college course

There is a “Benefits Culture” Just 5% of young people who are ‘NEET’ are claiming any form amongst young people of Benefit

Young people don’t want to work 83.0% of clients who were ‘NEET’ stated they “wanted a job or apprenticeship”, a further 7.3% “wanted anything” and 6.2% “wanted college”

Careers work in school has no A 40.9% reduction in ‘NEETs’ in schools where CEIAG46 was impact provided compared to a 19.8% reduction where CEIAG was partial and 11.2% reduction where there was no CEIAG

Source: Data taken from analysis of Participation Assessment Tool (Youth Direction’s ‘NEET’ assessment) of all new ‘NEET’ between July 2016 and March 2017 and from Destination Data 2013-2016

45 Coles, B., Godfrey, C., Keung,A., Parrott,S and Bradshaw, J. (2010) Estimating the life-time cost of NEET: 16-18 year olds in Education, Employment or Training: Research undertaken for the Audit Commission, University of York 46 CEIAG = Careers and Education Information, Advice and Guidance

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 157 HIGHER EDUCATION

eesside University is the most popular Looking more closely at the 61% who found higher education destination for employment within Tees Valley - Middlesbrough TStockton-on-Tees residents. Of 1,855 employed the largest amount of Tees Valley Stockton-on-Tees’ residents that gained a graduates at 22%, followed by Stockton-on-Tees graduate or post-graduate qualification in at 17%. This is despite the Stockton-on-Tees’ 2015-2016 49% studied at Teesside University. labour market consisting of 38.0% more jobs than Middlesbrough. 80% of graduates who lived in Stockton-on-Tees prior to starting higher Department for Education estimates of higher education found employment or were due to education progression estimate that 37% of start employment 6 months after completing 15 year old pupils from state-funded schools their education. Of these, 65% found entered higher education by the age of 19, the employment within Tees Valley; with 33% finding same as the figure for England and higher than employment in Stockton-on-Tees. the North East figure of 33% (Figure 3.28). Nationally there is a 17 percentage point gap 50% of Tees Valley students travelled outside between those who qualify for ‘Free School Tees Valley for university in 2014-2015. However Meals’ (FSM) and those who do not in terms of 61% found employment in Tees Valley once progression to higher education. Of note is that graduating. in Stockton-on-Tees there is a 28 percentage point gap; with only 13% of FSM pupils progressing to higher education compared to 41% of non-FSM pupils.

FIGURE 3.28: ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE OF 15 YEAR OLD PUPILS FROM STOCKTON-ON-TEES’ STATE-FUNDED SCHOOLS WHO ENTERED HIGHER EDUCATION BY AGE 19, 2006-2007 TO 2013-2014

41%

39%

37%

35%

33%

31%

29%

27% state-funded schools who entered HE by age 19 Estimated percentage of 15 year old pupils from 25% 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Stockton-on-Tees 30% 30% 34% 33% 36% 40% 38% 37% North East 27% 28% 29% 30% 32% 34% 34% 33% Total England 30% 31% 32% 34% 35% 36% 37% 37%

Source: Department for Education - Widening Participation in Higher Education: 2016

158 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: APPRENTICESHIPS

here were 2,770 apprenticeship starts There were 1,030 advanced apprenticeship amongst Stockton-on-Tees’ residents in starts; where at the end of the apprenticeship T2015-2016, which is the highest number a Level 3 qualification (equivalent to 2 ‘A’ levels) ever recorded for an academic year. 23.5% of is achieved. There has been a 2% increase in starts were for those under the age of 19 and advanced apprenticeships starts since 29.2% of apprenticeships were starts by those 2011-2012. aged 19-24 with the remainder aged 25 and over (Figure 3.29). There were 160 starts in 2015-2016 for higher apprenticeships; where at the end of the In 2015-2016, 56% of apprenticeships apprenticeship a Level 4 qualification (equivalent were intermediate; where at the end of the to a degree) is achieved. There has been a 9-fold apprenticeship a Level 2 qualification (equivalent increase in higher apprenticeship starts since to 5 A*-C GCSEs) was achieved. The number of the 2011-2012 academic year, however these intermediate apprenticeships started in still only made up 6.5% of all apprenticeship 2015-2016 (1,560) was 6% lower than in starts. 2011-2012.

FIGURE 3.29: APPRENTICESHIP STARTS FOR STOCKTON-ON-TEES’ RESIDENTS BY LEVEL AND AGE OF START, 2011-2012 TO 2015-2016

800

700

600

500

400

300

200 No. of Apprenticeship Starts 100

- Under 19 19-24 25+ Under 19 19-24 25+ Under 19 19-24 25+ Intermediate Advanced Higher 2011 -1 2 520 450 690 220 280 520 - 10 10 2012 -1 3 410 510 750 190 320 510 - 10 40 2013 -1 4 430 490 550 220 290 310 - 20 30 2014 -1 5 380 480 600 200 300 410 - 10 110 2015 -1 6 400 450 710 250 340 440 - 20 160 Source: Department for Education – FE Data Library

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 159 OTHER AGE GROUPS AND QUALIFICATIONS (BY LOCATION OF TRAINING PROVIDER) ualifications can be achieved at all ages. Training providers based in Stockton-on-Tees47 delivered 15,600 Qualifications and Credit Framework (QCF) Qachievements48 in 2014-2015 of which 11,100 (71.2%) were delivered to people over the age of 21. Nearly 4,000 were delivered to people over the age of 41 (Figure 3.30). Amongst other things, this could be as a result of businesses investing in and up-skilling their existing workforce.

11% of these 15,600 QCF achievements were Entry Level and 19% were Level 1. 45% were Level 2, and the remaining quarter were Level 3 and above.

FIGURE 3.30: QUALIFICATIONS AND CREDIT FRAMEWORK (QCF) ACHIEVEMENTS BY AGE GROUP IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2014 TO 2015

6,000 5,200 5,000

4,000 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,000 2,000

1,000 300 100 0 16-2021-24 25-4041-59 60 and over Not Known

Source: DFE – 2014/15 - FE Data Library: Vocational Qualifications

47 Numbers refer to achievements where the learning took place in Stockton-on-Tees and not the home postcode of learner 48 There are three types of QCF qualifications: Awards (1 to 12 Credits); Certificates (13 to 36 credits) and Diplomas (37 Credits or more). Numbers of achievements are only for those awarding organisations submitting QCF data to the Vocational Qualifications Database

160 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: SKILLS AND QUALIFICATIONS

rise in apprenticeships and long-term This is illustrated in Figure 3.31, which shows increases in those staying on in education the proportion of the working age population Aand studying to degree level have without any qualifications reducing by a third increased the skills profile of from 12.4% to 8.3% in the last 10 years. Also Stockton-on-Tees and resulted in an overall of note is the rise in Level 2 qualifications from reduction in the proportion of working age 67.6% to 76.8% of the working age population. residents without any qualifications. This is currently higher than the GB average of 74.3%. People born 65 years ago were less likely to gain official qualifications or go to university The proportion of the working age population compared to people born 16 years ago. As a qualified to at least NVQ Level 4 has risen from result of this, as the population ages those 25.4% to 36.7% in the last 10 years (Figure 3.32). leaving the ‘working age’ population bracket are Growth in this measure of 44.5% is higher than generally less qualified than those entering it, in the UK and wider Tees Valley (both showing which partly explains a growing proportion of growth of 38.7%) and the North East (growth of people of working age who hold a qualification 37.3%). Despite stronger growth in and a falling proportion with no qualifications. Stockton-on-Tees the rate remains lower than the UK figure of 38.0%, however, it is still higher than the North East (31.3%) and Tees Valley (30.8%) rates.

FIGURE 3.31: SHARE OF WORKING AGE FIGURE 3.32: SHARE OF WORKING AGE RESIDENTS BY HIGHEST QUALIFICATION RESIDENTS QUALIFIED TO NVQ LEVEL 4 HELD IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES – TEN OVER LAST 10 YEARS, 2006 TO 2016 YEAR COMPARISON, 2006 TO 2016

Year ending December 2006 Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley Year ending December 2016 North East United Kingdom

12.4 40.0

No Quals n 8.3 io at Other 5.5 35.0 Quals 5.9 popul 30.0 82.1

NVQ1 6- 64 85.8 1 of 25.0 67.6 NVQ2 ge

76.8 ta 20.0

46.9 cen NVQ3

54.6 Per 15.0 25.4 c-0 6 c-0 7 c-0 8 c-0 9 c-1 0 c-11 c-12 c-13 c-14 c-15 NVQ4 c-16 36.7 De De De De De De De De De De De Year Ending

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year ending Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016 December 2016

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 161 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: OCCUPATIONAL PROFILES

tockton-on-Tees had a higher proportion of residents who work in ‘Professional’ occupations (where most occupations would require a degree or equivalent qualification) than Tees Valley, SNorth East and the UK. This rate had risen from 18.0% of those in employment for the year ending December 2011 to 21.0% for the year ending December 2016 (Figure 3.33).

At the same point in time ‘Process, Plant and Machine Operatives’ occupations made up only 5.6% of all those in employment, which was lower than the UK figure of 6.4%. In contrast, Tees Valley had a rate of 7.4% and the North East at 7.6%. The number of Stockton-on-Tees’ residents in this occupational group has fallen faster than regionally and nationally in the last ten years.

The Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) system groups these occupations in order of the level and complexity of skills required to carry out a role and also the level of qualifications required for it. Figure 3.33 arranges the occupations in order of higher to lower skill/qualification from top to bottom. FIGURE 3.33: EMPLOYMENT BY STANDARD OCCUPATIONAL CLASSIFICATIONS, 2016

Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East UK Higher Skill/ qualification 9.3 8.8 requirement Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 8.2 10.5 21.0 17.0 Professional Occupations 17.8 20.2 14.1 12.6 Associate Prof & Tech Occupations 12.4 14.2 12.1 10.7 Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 10.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 Skilled Trades Occupations 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.0 Caring, Leisure and other Service Occupations 10.1 9.2 8.6 8.1 Sales and Customer Service Occupations 9.5 7.6 5.6 7.4 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 7.6 6.4 8.7 Lower Skill/ Elementary Occupations 11.5 11.8 qualification 10.7 requirement

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey - Year Ending December 2016

162 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: FUTURE DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT

he UKCES Working Futures model predicts that Tees Valley will have 133,000 jobs that will Tneed filling by 2024. This is made up of 17,000 new jobs and 116,000 replacement jobs. High qualifications/high skilled occupations are making up an ever increasing share of total employment with over half of the aforementioned 133,000 Tees Valley jobs predicted to require a Level 4 or above qualification.

In addition 45% of those jobs are projected to be highly skilled ‘managerial’, ‘professional’ or ‘associate professional and technical’ occupations (Figure 3.34). Part time jobs are projected to make up a greater share of total employment in the future. Growth in female employment is expected to exceed that for men. All sectors, including those with declining aggregate employment numbers, are projected to see thousands of job opportunities in the next decade due to replacement demand. It is estimated that between 2014 and 2024 four in every ten jobs will require replacing, which is a significant future demand for skills in the local economy.

FIGURE 3.34: ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF TEES VALLEY EMPLOYMENT BY MAJOR SECTOR OCCUPATION CLASSIFICATION GROUPS, 2016

Soc Groups 1-3 - Managers, Directors, Senior Officials, Professional, Associate Prof and Tech Occupations Soc Groups 4-5 - Administrative and Secretarial and Skilled Trades Occupations Soc Groups 6-7 - Caring, Leisure, Sales, Customer and Other Service Occupations Soc Groups 8-9 - Process, Plant, Machine Operatives and Elementary Occupations

140 Estimated Modelled Projections 130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60 Occupational Employment (Thousands)

50

40

1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Source: UKCES (2016) - UK labour market projections: 2014 to 2024

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 163 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: EMPLOYERS PERSPECTIVES

survey of 402 Stockton-on-Tees’ 16% of Stockton-on-Tees’ employers stated businesses49 by the UK Commission for they had a member of staff not fully proficient A Employment and Skills in 2015 sought (England average = 14%). information on the skills levels of their staff and applicants to vacancies. 18% of 74% of Stockton-on-Tees’ businesses stated Stockton-on-Tees’ businesses reported having they had trained staff over the last 12 months vacancies (England average 20%). (England average = 66%).

Of the 18%, 7% of businesses reported 33% of survey respondents stated they had vacancies that were hard to fill (England a member of staff who was under-utilised average 8.0%). The rates were higher for (had a role below the level they were qualified businesses in the ‘Retail, Wholesale, Food to work at) (England average = 30%). This was and Accommodation’ sector (10%), and the particularly the case in the sector of ‘Food and ‘Transport, Storage and Communication’ sector Accommodation’; with 46% of respondents (14%). from Hotels and Restaurants reporting they had under-utilised staff.

49 This represents a sample size of 7% of all PAYE or VAT registered businesses in the Borough

164 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: EMPLOYMENT AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT

t the time of the 2011 Census 10.4% of the people who were in work were classed as self-employed, which was in the lowest 7% of all UK Local Authorities (26th lowest out of A380). Annual Population Survey estimates of self-employment show both locally, regionally and nationally that self-employment had increased (Figure 3.35). In the last couple of years in Stockton-on-Tees, the North East and Tees Valley approximately 7% to 8% of the working age population (16-64) were estimated to be self-employed - 5 years ago the rate was less than 6% for Stockton-on-Tees and Tees Valley, but the Stockton-on-Tees rate had risen at a faster rate than regionally.

Nationally the self-employment estimate is much higher; with the figure rising from 9.2% for the year ending December 2011 to 10.5% for the year ending December 2016. FIGURE 3.35: SELF-EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES, 2006 TO 2016

Stockton-on-Tees (4 quarter moving average) Tees Valley North East United Kingdom

11.0 n

io 10.0 at

popul 9.0 6- 64

1 8.0 of on ti 7.0 opor pr

d 6.0 te ma

ti 5.0 Es

4.0 Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jun-11 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-07 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Dec-16 Dec-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-15 Dec-13 Sep-14 Dec-12 Sep-13 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-10 Sep-11 Dec-09 Sep-10 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-07 Sep-08 Dec-06 Sep-07

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 165 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: PART-TIME AND FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT

f those in employment there were a higher proportion of full-time workers in Stockton-on-Tees than Tees Valley, North East and the UK; with 89.1% of males working Ofull-time and 59.7% of females working full-time as shown in Figure 3.36. FIGURE 3.36: EMPLOYMENT BY GENDER AND FULL/PART-TIME STATUS, 2016

100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% Full Time Part Time Full Time Part Time Males Females Stockton-on-Tees 89.1% 9.9% 59.7% 40.3% Tees Valley 88.2% 10.8% 58.9% 40.7% North East 88.2% 11.1% 57.8% 41.7% UK 88.5% 11.2% 58.9% 40.8%

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Year Ending December 2016

As well as gender, full-time employment varies with age. 16-19 year olds had much lower rates of full-time employment (Figure 3.37).

FIGURE 3.37: FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT BY AGE GROUP, 2016

Stockton-on-Tees United Kingdom

82.1% 78.0% 78.5% 72.2% 71.6% 67.5%

33.6% 26.6% who work part-time Proportion of those in employment aged 16-19 aged 20-24 aged 25-49 aged 50+ Source: ONS Annual Population Survey - Year Ending December 2016

166 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: EMPLOYMENT DEPRIVATION

he Index of Multiple Deprivation includes an ‘Employment’ domain, which highlights employment deprivation based on a score that looks at a range of indicators relating to benefit Tclaimants (Figure 3.38). Specifically: • Claimants of Jobseeker’s Allowance (both contribution-based and income-based) - women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64

• Claimants of Employment and Support Allowance (both contribution-based and income based) - women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64

• Claimants of Incapacity Benefit - women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64

• Claimants of Severe Disablement Allowance - women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64

• Claimants of Carer’s Allowance - women aged 18-59 and men aged 18-64

Relative deprivation across the Borough is shown in the inset and the proportion of LSOAs that fall in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs in the country for each of the seven domains that relative deprivation is assessed against. 23% of LSOAs in Stockton-on-Tees are in the most deprived 10% nationally for the ‘Employment’ domain and at 23% is the highest of all seven domains. There is a strong correlation between the pattern of employment deprivation and other types of deprivation such as those relating to skills, incomes and health FIGURE 3.38: EMPLOYMENT DEPRIVATION IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2015

IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston 1 Seal Sands 2 3 4 Stillington Billingham Thorpe Thewles 5 Whitton 6 Carlton Norton 7 Port Clarence 8 Roseworth 9 Redmarshall Hardwick 10 Portrack Fairfield Stockton See start of Chapter for overall deprivation Hartburn Teesdale IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston Thornaby 1 Seal Sands 2 Long Newton 3 Billingham Stillington Thorpe Thewles 4 Eaglescliffe Whitton 5 6 Carlton Norton Port Clarence 7 Ingleby Barwick Roseworth 8 Redmarshall Hardwick 9 Maltby Portrack 10 Egglescliffe Fairfield Stockton

Hartburn Teesdale Yarm

Thornaby Long Newton Hilton Eaglescliffe Ingleby Barwick

Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm Kirklevington 23% 22% 21% 18% 18% Hilton

3% 3% Kirklevington 1%

Employment Income Health OverallSkills Barriers to Crime Living Services Environment

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: DCLG (2015) – English Indices of Multiple Deprivation

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 167 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION

igure 3.39 summarises the size, activity and inactivity of the working age population of FStockton-on-Tees and serves to illustrate the structure of the workforce and labour supply. FIGURE 3.39: ESTIMATES OF POPULATION BY LABOUR MARKET STATUS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2016

WORKING AGE POPULATION (Aged 16-64 = the potential workforce) 122,800

ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (Neither in work nor actively (Either in work or actively seeking work) seeking work) 90,800 (74.4%) 31,300 (25.6%)

In Employment Unemployed STUDENTS 7,800 88,700 (70.8%) 4,400 (3.6%) LONG TERM SICK 6,525

LOOKING AFTER 6,175 FAMILY/HOME

OTHER 4,200

RETIRED 3,400

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016

168 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: ECONOMIC PARTICIPATION

nnual Population Survey estimates50 suggest that in the year ending December 2016 there were 122,100 working age residents in Stockton-on-Tees; 90,800 of which were A‘economically active’ illustrated in Figure 3.40. This is 74.4% of the working age population and, whilst higher than the Tees Valley rate at 73.7%, the figure was lower than the North East (75.5%) and the UK (77.7%).

The ‘economically active’ population consists of those ‘in employment’ and those that are ‘not in employment’ but have been actively seeking work in the four weeks prior to the survey (these people are considered ‘unemployed’, whilst those not actively seeking work are classed as ‘economically inactive’).

FIGURE 3.40: UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC INACTIVITY AS A PROPORTION OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (16-64) POPULATION, 2016

In employment Unemployed Economically Inactive

68.9% 70.8% 70.4% 73.9%

3.6% 4.8% 5.1% 3.9%

25.6% 26.3% 24.5% 22.3%

Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East United Kingdom

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016

50 The Annual Population Survey (APS) is a rolling quarterly sample survey of Households in Great Britain of which there are around 1,000 Stockton-on-Tees’ households who respond (the most recent survey had 973 respondents from Stockton-on-Tees). As the APS is a sample survey, it provides estimates of population characteristics rather than exact measures. In principle, many random samples could be drawn and each would give different results, due to the fact that each sample would be made up of different people, who would give different answers to the questions asked. Therefore estimates are subject to sampling error. In this section, four quarter averages are used to increase the reliability of the figures.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 169 Over the last 10 years the proportion of Economic inactivity reached a low of 21.9% the working age population that were in of the working age population in 2013 after employment had remained relatively stable; falling from a peak of 26.1% in 2008. Since 2013 between lows of 68.6% during 2008 and highs of economic inactivity had risen to 23.7% of the 72.5% during 2015 (Figure 3.41). population, which is explored further in the next section. Around 5.1% of the 16-64 population were unemployed in 2006, which slowly rose to a peak of 10.9% in 2012. This figure then fell to 5.8% in 2016. FIGURE 3.41: UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC INACTIVITY IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS (FOUR QUARTER AVERAGES), 2006 TO 2016

140,000

120,000

Inactivity + Unemployed = those not in work 100,000

80,000

60,000 Unemployed + Employed = economically active

40,000

20,000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Inactive 29,500 30,675 31,700 29,600 28,025 27,250 27,750 26,425 27,375 27,225 28,900 Unemployment 4,625 5,225 6,475 8,500 8,250 9,300 10,200 9,800 8,375 6,125 5,350 Employment 85,950 85,650 83,450 83,975 86,250 85,400 83,625 84,850 84,325 87,900 87,600

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – Year Ending December 2016

170 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS: REASONS FOR ECONOMIC INACTIVITY

ith close to a quarter of the working age population (25.6%) estimated to be ‘economically inactive’ it is important to understand the reasons for this and how this has changed over Wtime. Figure 3.42 explores the top five reasons for economic inactivity.51 The most common reason for economic inactivity was ‘study’ and an estimated 7,800 people were inactive for this reason in 2016, which was a rise of 36.2% compared to ten years previously. ‘Long-term sickness’ was the reason for inactivity for an estimated 6,525 in 2016; a reduction of 19.5% on the 2006 estimate. ‘Looking after the family/home’ was the reason for inactivity for an estimated 6,175 people, and an estimated 3,400 working age people (16-64 year olds) were inactive due to ‘retirement’ - a position that had fallen from a peak of 5,850 in 2009. FIGURE 3.42: ECONOMIC INACTIVITY BY TOP FIVE REASONS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES (FOUR QUARTER AVERAGES), 2006 TO 2016

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Student 5,725 6,450 7,375 5,725 5,325 6,975 7,400 6,925 7,800 6,625 7,800 Looking After Family 7,675 6,975 7,475 6,625 7,925 6,325 6,575 6,075 6,425 6,875 6,175 Long-Term Sickness 7,700 8,550 8,425 7,475 6,675 6,050 6,175 6,200 6,150 4,775 6,525 Retired 4,850 5,175 5,050 5,850 5,375 4,775 4,025 4,150 3,650 4,450 3,400 Other 3,250 3,175 3,400 3,775 2,625 2,800 3,125 2,825 3,175 4,175 4,700

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (Average of years ending March, June, September and December each year)

51 These five reasons are 5 of 7 options that survey respondents can select to explain why they are not actively seeking work and are therefore inactive. The other two reasons are that they have been “discouraged” and they are “temporarily sick” however there are rarely enough respondents for these reasons to provide a reliable estimate for Stockton-on-Tees.

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 171 OUT OF WORK BENEFITS

onsideration of ‘out of work’ benefits can give an indication of labour market trends, and these trends are presented in Figure 3.43. This data segments benefit claimants into ‘statistical Cgroups’ including ‘lone parents’ and ‘ESA/Incapacity Benefits’, which are more likely to include people that are ‘economically inactive’.

The number of people claiming ‘out of work’ benefits had fallen, and as of November 2016 was at 14,322, which is an historic low since records began in 1999. ‘ESA’ and ‘Incapacity Benefits’ made up the majority of ‘out of work’ benefit claimants, and there were 8,400 of these claimants in November 2016. This was lower than the previous year, but higher than in November 2013.

There were also a rising number of residents who claimed ‘Carer’s Allowance’ with 2,970 people in 2016, and 1,200 people claiming ‘Disability Allowance’. These two statistical groups are not considered as an ‘out of work’ benefit, so are not shown in Figure 3.43.

FIGURE 3.43: OUT OF WORK BENEFITS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES BY STATISTICAL GROUP, 2011 TO 2016 20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 Nov 2011 Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Nov 2014 Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Total Out of Work Benefits 18,380 17,960 16,610 15,240 15,000 14,322 Lone Parent 2,300 2,070 2,080 2,030 1,900 1,950 Others on Income Related Benefit 660 600 580 470 410 310 Universal Credit (Not in employment) 00000962 Job Seekers Allowance 6,580 6,930 5,760 4,070 3,650 2,700 ESA and Incapacity Benefits 8,840 8,360 8,190 8,670 9,040 8,400

Source: Department for Work and Pensions

52 Universal Credit is designed so that a broader span of claimants is required to look for work than under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This means that once Universal Credit is fully rolled out, the Claimant Count is likely to be higher than it would otherwise be under Jobseeker’s Allowance and while it is being rolled out it is impossible to determine whether trends in the claimant count are as a result of labour market changes or the impact of Universal Credit roll out.

172 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant figures are monitored regularly for labour market trends, however in Autumn 2015 Universal Credit was introduced in Stockton-on-Tees and is slowly being rolled out across the Borough.52 The ‘Claimant Count by Age’, shown in Figure 3.44 before Autumn 2015 was solely a measure of those claiming JSA, but now includes Universal Credit claimants who are not in employment.

The April 2017 claimant count for Stockton-on-Tees was 4,150, which was 3.4% of the working age population. Although this was lower than the Tees Valley figure of 4.1%, it was higher than the North East figure of 3.2% and the national figure of 2.0%.

This was more than 40% lower than it was in April 2013 after falling fairly steadily to a low of 3,395 in September 2015. Since then, the claimant count has fluctuated and most current data suggests it is made up of 995 16-24 year olds, 2,200 25-49 year olds and 955 aged over 50. The proportion of the claimant count made up of older claimants (aged 50+) had grown from 15% of claimants in April 2013 to 23% of claimants in April 2017 whilst over the same period the proportion of claimants aged 16-24 had fallen from 30% to 24%.

Of those claimants in April 2017 1,395 had been claiming for over 6 months and 965 had been claiming for over a year.

FIGURE 3.44: CLAIMANT COUNT BY AGE IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2013 TO 2017

Aged 16-24 Aged 25-49 Aged 50+ 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 14 15 16 17 13 14 15 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 15 16 t- t- t- t- c- c- c- c- n- n- n- n- g- g- g- g- b- b- b- b- Oc Oc Oc Oc Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Ju Ju Ju Ju Fe Fe Fe Fe De De De De Au Au Au Au

Source: ONS - Claimant Count

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 173 KEY FACTS: INCOME AND POVERTY

OF GROSS DISPOSABLE £3.35 HOUSEHOLD INCOME (GDHI) BILLION IN 2015

£512.12 £522.70 FULL-TIME WEEKLY FULL-TIME WEEKLY EARNINGS OF WORKERS IN EARNINGS OF RESIDENTS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES STOCKTON-ON-TEES (NE = £494.00) (UK = £538.70)

LOWEST EARNING 25% OF FULL-TIME WORKERS EARN

£374.30 PER WEEK AVERAGE RENTAL COSTS ARE LOWEST EARNING 10% OF FULL-TIME WORKERS EARN

£295.70 £525.00 PER WEEK PER MONTH IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES (£45.00 HIGHER THAN THE NE AND £125.00 LOWER THAN ENGLAND AVERAGES)

ANNUAL GROWTH OF ANNUAL GROWTH OF: 4.4% 4.2% IN RESIDENT IN WORKPLACE 4.1% EARNINGS IN EARNINGS IN 2015 2015 IN GROSS DISPOSABLE HOUSEHOLD INCOME (GDHI) IN 2015 (UK = 3.7%)

174 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 INCOME AND POVERTY INCOME AND POVERTY: HOUSEHOLD INCOME

ross disposable household income (GDHI) is the amount of money that all of the people in a household have available for spending or saving after they have paid direct and indirect taxes Gand received any direct benefits. GDHI is a concept that is used to reflect the ‘material welfare’ of the household sector.

GDHI in Stockton-on-Tees was £3.35bn in 2015 after annual growth of 4.1%. This was faster growth than nationally (3.7%), but slower than Tees Valley (4.9%) and the North East (4.2%) (Figure 3.45).

The Stockton-on-Tees’ GDHI per person figure was £17,197, which is higher than the North East (£16,197) and Tees Valley (£16,094), but equated to only 90% of the national figure of £19,106 (Figure 3.45).

FIGURE 3.45: GDHI PER PERSON, 2010 AND 2015

Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East United Kingdom

£20,000

£19,000

£18,000

£17,000

£16,000

£15,000

£14,000

£13,000

£12,000 Gross Disposable Household Income (£) £11,000

£10,000 2010 2015 Source: ONS (2017) – Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI): 2015

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 175 INCOME AND POVERTY: EARNINGS

he Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)53 estimated that the ‘median’54 weekly earnings of Stockton-on-Tees’ residents that were working full-time in 2016 was £522.70 T(Figure 3.46). This was higher than the North East figure of £492.20, but lower than the national figure of £538.70. Even though earnings in Stockton-on-Tees had grown by 4.4% since 2015, 4.8% over the past five years, and by 17.4% over the past ten years this was lower growth than the North East and the UK.

In comparison, workplace-based earnings showed the average figure for those who work in Stockton-on-Tees, which was estimated at £512.20. This figure was again higher than the North East (£494.00). Even though workplace-based earnings had grown since 2015 by 4.2% the estimates for Stockton-on-Tees had been consistently lower than resident based earnings estimates in the past ten years; suggesting that residents who travelled outside of Stockton-on-Tees for work earned higher wages on average than those who worked in the Borough. FIGURE 3.46: ‘MEDIAN’ EARNINGS, 2006 TO 2016

£550.00 ) (£ s £530.00 ker r £510.00 Wo

me

Ti £490.00 Fu ll £470.00 of

ay £450.00 P

£430.00 eek ly W s £410.00 os Gr £390.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112012201320142015 2016 Stockton-on-Tees (Resident Analysis) £445.10 £453.60 £456.30 £480.90 £477.30 £498.10 £482.30 £513.70 £506.90 £501.70 £522.70 Stockton-on-Tees (Workplace analysis) £413.80 £416.80 £430.00 £473.10 £450.70 £463.50 £453.70 £469.80 £504.70 £490.70 £512.20 North East (Resident Analysis) £391.50 £401.00 £421.70 £438.50 £443.40 £448.50 £454.90 £472.20 £476.70 £485.60 £492.20 North East (Workplace analysis) £394.80 £404.30 £420.80 £435.60 £443.10 £449.10 £454.40 £470.10 £479.10 £490.50 £494.00 United Kingdom £443.60 £457.60 £479.10 £488.50 £498.50 £498.30 £506.10 £517.40 £518.30 £527.10 £538.70

Source: ONS (2016) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016

53 ASHE is based on a sample of employee jobs taken from HM Revenue & Customs PAYE records. Information on earnings and hours is obtained in confidence from employers. ASHE does not cover the self-employed nor does it cover employees not paid during the reference period. Figures are subject to sampling error. 54 In published reports, ’median‘earnings rather than the ‘mean’ will generally be used. The ‘median’ is the value below which 50% of employees fall. It is preferred over the mean for earnings data as it is influenced less by extreme values and because of the skewed distribution of earnings data.

176 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 As ‘median’ earnings represents the point at For those residents working full-time, a which half of Stockton-on-Tees’ earners fall quarter of these earned 28.4% less per week below and above, it is useful to understand what than ‘median’ earnings, which equates to differences in earnings may exist across the £148.40. The lowest 10% of earners were paid Borough. £295.70 a week, which was £227.00 less than the ‘median’ earnings (43.4%). The 25th percentile is the point at which the 25% of earners fall below ‘median’ earnings, and Overall, between 10% and 20% of the 10th percentile is the point at which the 10% Stockton-on-Tees’ residents earned below 60% of earners fall below ‘median’ earning. of national earnings. This ’60%’ threshold is a Figure 3.47 explores this further. commonly recognised measure of poverty.

FIGURE 3.47: ’MEDIAN’ EARNINGS, 25TH AND 10TH PERCENTILE, FULL TIME WEEKLY EARNINGS, 2006 TO 2016

£550

£500

£)

ngs i

ge £450 rn Wa Ea

y £400 nt de eekl W

esi £350 R me of ti £300 ll u eve l (F L £250

£200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016 Stockton-on-Tees Median £445 £454 £456 £481 £477 £498 £482 £514 £507 £502 £523 Stockton-on-Tees Lowest 25% £291 £306 £310 £340 £333 £351 £345 £381 £366 £364 £374 Poverty Threshold £266 £275 £287 £293 £299 £299 £304 £310 £311 £316 £323 Stockton-on-Tees Lowest 10% £231 £240 £245 £271 £272 £276 £273 £291 £287 £284 £296

Source: ONS (2016) - Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 177 INCOME AND POVERTY: INCOME DEPRIVATION

he Index of Multiple Deprivation includes an ‘Income’ domain where LSOAs in England are scored and ranked in terms of their relative ‘Income’ deprivation (Figure 3.48). The underlying Tindicators that make up these scores/ranks are as follows: • Adults and children in Income Support families

• Adults and children in income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance families

• Adults and children in income-based Employment and Support Allowance families

• Adults and children in Pension Credit (Guarantee) families

• Adults and children in Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit families not already counted, and whose equivalised income (excluding housing benefit) is below 60%

• Asylum seekers in England in receipt of subsistence support, accommodation support, or both

Relative deprivation across the Borough is shown in the inset and the proportion of LSOAs that fall in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs in the country for each of the seven domains that relative deprivation is assessed against. 22% of LSOAs in Stockton-on-Tees are in the most deprived 10% nationally for the ‘Income’ domain. The pattern of income deprivation is strongly related to other types of deprivation such as health, skills and employment.

FIGURE 3.48: INCOME DEPRIVATION IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2015

IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston 1 Seal Sands 2 3 4 Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham 5 Whitton 6 Carlton Norton 7 Port Clarence 8 Roseworth 9 Redmarshall Hardwick 10 Portrack Fairfield Stockton See start of Chapter for overall deprivation Hartburn Teesdale

IMD Decile Wynyard Village 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Wolviston Thornaby 1 Seal Sands 2 Long Newton 3 Billingham Eaglescliffe Stillington Thorpe Thewles 4 Whitton 5 6 Carlton Norton Port Clarence 7 Ingleby Barwick Roseworth 8 Redmarshall Hardwick 9 Egglescliffe Maltby Portrack 10 Fairfield Stockton

Teesdale Yarm Hartburn

Thornaby Long Newton Hilton Eaglescliffe

Ingleby Barwick

Egglescliffe Maltby

Kirklevington Yarm 23% 22% 21% 18% 18% Hilton

3% 3% Kirklevington 1%

Employment Income Health OverallSkills Barriers to Crime Living Services Environment

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: DCLG (2015) – English Indices of Multiple Deprivation

178 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 INCOME AND POVERTY: HOUSEHOLDS IN POVERTY

arnings below 60% of the national ‘median’ before housing costs are a common threshold for determining households that are in poverty. Figure 3.49 explores the MSOAs55 in the Borough Ethat had high concentrations of households earning below this threshold in 2014. The area to the North and West of the River Tees, which includes Stockton Town Centre, had the highest concentration of households in poverty at 34.9% of all households. The MSOA that relates to the Hardwick area and the MSOA in between this and Stockton Town Centre area had over a quarter of households considered to be in poverty before housing costs. MSOAs to the South and West of the Borough tended to have smaller concentrations of households in poverty. FIGURE 3.49: HOUSEHOLDS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES IN POVERTY BEFORE HOUSING COSTS, 2014

Wynyard Village

Wolviston

Seal Sands

Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham Whitton

Carlton Norton Port Clarence Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack Proportion of Households in Poverty before housing costs (%) Fairfield Stockton 9.4 - 11.9 11.9 - 14.5 Hartburn Teesdale 14.5 - 17.1 17.1 - 19.6 19.6 - 22.2 Thornaby 22.2 - 24.7 Long Newton 24.7 - 27.3 Eaglescliffe 27.3 - 29.8 29.8 - 32.4 Ingleby Barwick 32.4 - 34.9 Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: ONS (2017) - Small Area Model-based Households in Poverty Estimates, England and Wales: Financial Year Ending 2014

55 MSOAs are a statistical geography from the 2011 Census that group areas into groups based on numbers of households. In Stockton-on-Tees MSOAs have between 2,000 and 5,000 households with an average of just under 3,300

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 179 INCOME AND POVERTY: HOUSING COSTS

ational research suggests that housing The North East had the lowest ‘median’ rental costs are particularly important as a prices for housing out of all the regions in the Ndriver of poverty in the private rented UK. Stockton-on-Tees had private rental prices sector, which now in many ways reflects the of £525.00, which was £45.00 higher than the front-line of poverty. Nationally 38% of the regional ‘median’, but £125.00 lower than poorest fifth spend a third or more of their nationally. As explored in the ‘Place’ Chapter income on housing - rising to 70% in the private regarding the housing market there are areas of rented sector. There were 7.4 million people in a the Borough that have a higher density of larger, working family in poverty in 2014-15 – 55% of all detached houses, and 3 or 4 bedroom houses people in poverty.56 can command higher rents and sale prices. This could mean that lower earners can only Figure 3.50 explores private rental costs for afford to live in areas where properties are more housing in Stockton-on-Tees by the number of affordable. bedrooms in a property.

FIGURE 3.50: SUMMARY OF PRIVATE RENTAL PRICES FOR HOUSING, 2015 TO 201657

Stockton-on-Tees North East England £1,275 £800 £795 £715 £650 £625 £57 5 £57 0 £55 5 £549 £525 £495 £480 £450 £400 £400 £375 £368 £323 £248

All Categories 4+ 321Studio Room

Source: VOA - Private Rental Market Summary Statistics (October 2015 to September 2016)

56 Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2016) Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion 57 Stockton-on-Tees’ data for room is not available

180 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 INCOME AND POVERTY: HOUSEHOLDS IN POVERTY AFTER HOUSING COSTS

s explored earlier in this sub-chapter housing costs can reduce the disposable income of households considerably. ‘Median’ monthly housing rent in 2015 was 28.7% of ‘median’ Amonthly salaries in 2015 in Stockton-on-Tees. In essence, almost one third of people’s monthly salary was being used towards paying housing costs. Figure 3.51 explores the proportion of households in Stockton-on-Tees that were considered to be in poverty after housing costs. The area North and West of the River Tees around Stockton Town Centre had the highest estimated concentration of households in poverty with 51.0% of all households in poverty after housing costs.

North Thornaby, Hardwick and Mount Pleasant areas (between Norton and Stockton) all had more than a third of households in poverty after housing costs. FIGURE 3.51: HOUSEHOLDS IN POVERTY AFTER HOUSING COSTS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2014

Wynyard Village

Wolviston

Seal Sands

Stillington Thorpe Thewles Billingham Whitton

Carlton Norton Port Clarence Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack Proportion of Households in Poverty after housing costs (%) Fairfield Stockton 7.4 - 11.8 Hartburn Teesdale 11.8 - 16.1 16.1 - 20.5 20.5 - 24.8 Thornaby 24.8 - 29.2 Long Newton 29.2 - 33.6 Eaglescliffe 33.6 - 37.9 37.9 - 42.3 Ingleby Barwick 42.3 - 46.6 46.6 - 51.0 Egglescliffe Maltby

Yarm

Hilton

Kirklevington

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023297 Source: ONS (2017) - Small Area Model-based Households in Poverty Estimates, England and Wales: Financial Year Ending 2014

LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 181 CASE STUDY: SUSTAINING INDEPENDENT LIVING

They were placed in Bed & Breakfast (B&B) accommodation in Hartington Road, but over the course of the next few years, and due to continued drug use, they were referred to an accommodation provider at Norton Road, which is for residents who are actively addressing their drug use issues and want extra support. Unfortunately, this arrangement broke down as a result of the resident’s continued drug use and them actively engaging in risky behaviours to fund their drug habit.

In January 2015, after a period of stability, they were referred by ‘A Way Out’ (an outreach and prevention charity based in Stockton-on-Tees that works with the most vulnerable and at risk individuals), to a supported accommodation provider ‘Roc Solid’. However, in October 2015 this relationship broke down and they were then he importance of people having a secure placed in Bridge House Hostel, but within 1 and safe place to live can have a profound month had been evicted from there as they were effect on being successful in other aspects T continually under the influence of drugs and for of their lives, for instance securing employment non-payment of rent. and obtaining a regular income. Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council works with Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council worked its partners to support those residents whose closely with ‘A Way Out’ and the resident to chaotic lifestyles mean they are vulnerable and formulate a housing plan jointly with a number less able to sustain independent living. of different agencies; with specific targets set for the resident to achieve, including paying Over the course of three years Stockton-on-Tees their rent and getting back into a drug recovery Borough Council’s Homelessness and Housing programme. In September 2016, they were Solutions service has worked with a resident accepted back in to accommodation at Norton to provide continued support. The resident first Road after complying with all the targets set out approached the Service after a relationship in their housing plan. breakdown. They were in a drug treatment programme, but claimed to be steadily reducing Since then, they have continued to go from their drug use. They also suffered from strength to strength and have now been enrolled depression and anxiety and were on medication as a peer mentor for ‘A Way Out’. They are now to treat this. They have children but they are not deemed as ready to move on to independent in their care. At the point of them approaching living and are currently waiting to be the Service they were employed, although they successfully re-housed. Work will continue with believed they were about to lose their job due to the resident in the form of floating support that poor attendance. will help them to set up their tenancy; with the aim of helping them to maintain it long-term.

182 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 183 184 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017