118 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 PEOPLE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 119 CHAPTER SUMMARY A Growing Population. The An Ageing Population. The total population of Stockton-on-Tees is population of the Borough is projected 194,803, and has grown by 10.1% in to increase to 211,005 people by 2039, the last 20 years, equating to 17,810 a change that will be driven primarily additional residents. During the same by an increased 65+ population. This time period, the population of Tees age group is forecast to continue to Valley grew by only 1.8%, and grow over the next 25 years; with the Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees 65+ population totalling 52,105 people Valley population has increased from in 2039 - a 54.0% increase on the 27.0% in 1995 to 29.2% in 2015. 2015 level. The population aged 90+ is projected to grow by 150% between 2015 and 2034. A Borough of Contrasts. Within Stockton-on-Tees there is quite a contrast between different parts High Educational Attainment. of the Borough; with areas of both KS2 and KS4 educational attainment relative affluence and deprivation. in Stockton-on-Tees is higher than the The variations in deprivation within national average. Stockton-on-Tees are reflective of its diversity as a Place; with large urban areas contrasting with more rural villages. A Reducing Working Age Population. The working age There are also contrasts between older population (16-64) is projected to areas that emerged and were linked to decrease by 1,971 people by 2034 from the industrial heritage of the area, and 122,849 to 120,878. newer areas that have been developed in more recent years. The contrasts in place, and housing types that result are linked to distributions of incomes Addressing the need for adult that have relationships with skills, social care through preventative employment, health and wellbeing as approaches. Across the period well as the need for adult social care. 2012-2016, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council provided on average 17,085 instances of adult social care; with 23.3% of this to people aged 18-59. Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council is seeking to work innovatively in partnership with external bodies and organisations to meet residents’ needs and reduce the need for health and social care interventions thereby improving the Borough’s economic growth prospects. 120 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 Record number of A Highly Qualified Workforce. apprenticeship starts. There were In the last 10 years the proportion 2,770 apprenticeship starts amongst of the population with a NVQ Level 4 Stockton-on-Tees residents in 2015-16, qualification has grown from 25.4% which is the highest number ever of the working age population to recorded for an academic year. 36.7%. Though higher than Tees Valley and North East estimates the figure Higher level apprenticeships have is slightly lower than the national grown from just 20 starts in 2011/12 to estimate of 38.0% but the gap has 180 in 2015/16. narrowed. High Levels of Economic Participation and potential to A Declining Number of improve. 88,700 (70.8%) residents of ‘Out-of-Work’ Benefit working age are in employment, which Claimants. There were 14,322 is lower than the national figure of Stockton-on-Tees residents claiming 73.9%. ‘out-of-work’ benefits in November 2016, A high and growing number of residents which is a record low and a reduction of are employed in higher skilled jobs and over 4,000 in the last five years. there has also been a rise in self-employment. Life Expectancy varies. Over the Wages are increasing, but period 2012-2014 life expectancy at birth in Stockton-on-Tees was 78.4 poverty exists. The ‘median’ years for a male and 82.3 years for a weekly full-time wage for a resident of female, which is lower than the national Stockton-on-Tees saw annual growth of average of 79.5 years for males and 4.4% to £522.70. 83.2 years for females. Within Annual growth of 4.2% in weekly Stockton-on-Tees estimates suggest full-time wages to £512.20 was seen for a wide variation in Ward-level life people that work in Stockton-on-Tees expectancy. businesses. Both measures are higher than the regional figures, but lower than the More 16-18 year olds are in national figure of £538.70. Education, Employment or In some areas of the Borough more Training. 92.7% of 16-18 year olds were than half of households have incomes known to be in Education, Employment that are less than the poverty threshold or Training (EET) compared to 87.4% of 60% of the national ‘median’ income nationally. after housing costs. The proportion of those Not in Education Employment or Training (NEET) has High Private Rented Housing fallen to a record low of 6.6%. Costs. At £525.00 per month, houses Only 0.7% of 16-18 year olds’ destinations for private rent cost £45.00 more than were ‘not known’, which is the 2nd lowest the North East average. of all UK Local Authorities. LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 121 INTRODUCTION This Chapter examines the overall characteristics of the people that live, learn, and work in Stockton-on-Tees, and the types of occupations that they are employed in, their skill levels, earning ability, and whether the needs of businesses both now and in the future in relation to their workforce requirements are being met. Stockton-on-Tees has a population of 194,803, which reflects a high rate of population growth over the past 20 years that is set to continue; with a projected population of 211,005 in 2039. Stockton-on-Tees is part of a wider labour market catchment and ‘travel to work’ area. Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees Valley population has increased over the past 10 years to 29.2%. There are high rates of economic participation amongst working age residents, and qualifications and skills attainment continue to improve. 122 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 DEPRIVATION DEPRIVATION: RELATIVE DEPRIVATION t is important to understand the differences These scores are grouped together into in the social, economic and environmental ‘domains’ (Figure 3.1). Further in the Chapter Icharacteristics within Stockton-on-Tees. The the domains associated with ‘Employment’, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) looks at a ‘Income’, ‘Health’ and ‘Skills’ are explored range of indicators and ranks areas known as further, and are the domains where relative Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in England deprivation is high in parts of Stockton-on-Tees. according to their relative scores. As Figure 3.1 indicates over a fifth of LSOAs are in the most deprived 10% in England in relation to ‘Employment’, ‘Income’ and ‘Health’. FIGURE 3.1: IMD DOMAINS IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES AND THE PROPORTION OF LSOAs THAT ARE IN THE MOST DEPRIVED 10% OF ENGLAND’S LSOAs, 2015 23% 22% 21% 18% 18% 3% 3% 1% Employment Income Health OverallSkills Barriers to Crime Living Services Environment Source: DCLG (2015) Index of Multiple Deprivation FIGURE 3.2: MAP OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES, 2015 A weighting is applied to the seven Wynyard Village domains to rank areas into an overall Wolviston score as an indication of relative Seal Sands deprivation. Figure 3.2 is a map that Billingham Stillington Thorpe Thewles Whitton shows deprivation relative to the rest of Carlton Norton Port Clarence England. Roseworth Redmarshall Hardwick Portrack IMD Decile 1 = Most Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Billingham, Norton, Thornaby and Fairfield Stockton 10 = Least Deprived 10% of LSOAs in England Hartburn Teesdale Stockton have areas of both high and low 1 2 deprivation, whilst Ingleby Barwick, Yarm, 3 Thornaby 4 Long Newton Wynyard and other rural areas are some of 5 Eaglescliffe 6 the least deprived areas in the country. 7 Ingleby Barwick 8 Egglescliffe Maltby 9 10 Yarm Hilton Kirklevington Source: DCLG (2015) Index of Multiple Deprivation LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 123 KEY FACTS: POPULATION AVERAGE AGE OF A STOCKTON-ON-TEES RESIDENT IS 194,803 40.3 YEARS (UK = 40.0 YEARS) PEOPLE LIVE IN STOCKTON-ON-TEES (MID-2015) POPULATION WILL INCREASE IN THE GROW TO NUMBER 54% OF PEOPLE 211,005 AGED 65+ (BY 2039) (BY 2039) 90+ POPULATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY OVER 150% (BY 2034) MID-2015 POPULATION CHANGES ARE DUE TO: 487 437 -217 MORE BIRTHS THAN DEATHS MORE PEOPLE COMING IN FROM FEWER PEOPLE COMING IN FROM INTERNATIONAL DESTINATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE UK THAN THAN GOING OUT GOING OUT (MID-2015) WORKING AGE POPULATION (16-64) FORECAST TO DECREASE TO WORKING AGE POPULATION (16-64) 122,849 120,872 (MID-2015) (BY 2033) 124 | LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 POPULATION POPULATION: TRENDS he population of Stockton-on-Tees is 194,803 at 2015 and has grown by 10.1% in the last 20 years; this equates to 17,810 additional residents (Figure 3.3). During the same time period Tthe population of Tees Valley grew by only 1.8% to 667,469 and the North East by only 1.6%. Stockton-on-Tees’ share of the Tees Valley population has increased from 27.0% in 1995 to 29.2% in 2015. FIGURE 3.3: POPULATION CHANGE, 2015 Stockton-on-Tees Tees Valley North East United Kingdom 0.4% 1 year 0.2% change 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 5 year 1.0% change 1.5% 3.7% 4.5% 10 year 2.1% change 3.0% 7.8% 10.1% 20 year 1.8% change 1.6% 12.2% Source: ONS (2016) - Population Estimates (Mid-2015) LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2017 | 125 The Borough of Stockton-on-Tees consists of 26 Wards that form a Unitary Local Authority area.