Activity Forecasts

DRAFT May 8, 2018 | DRAFT Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport Activity Forecasts Prepared for: City of Phoenix Aviation Department Prepared by: In association with: RICONDO C&S Engineers Kimley-Horn & Associates, Inc. PSM2, Inc. Trace Consulting, LLC RicondoRicondo & Associates, Inc. (Ricondo)(Ricondo) preparedprepared this document forfor the stated purposespurposes as expresslyexpressly set fforthorth herein and forfor the solesole use of the CityCity ofof Phoenix Aviation DDepartmentepartment aandnd its intenintendedded recipients. TThehe techniques and methodologiesmethodologies used in preparing this document are consistent with industry practices at the time ooff preparpreparation.ation. DRAFT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MAY 2018 DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. Activity Forecasts .............................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Historical Aviation Activity ................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.1.1 Airline Service ........................................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.1.2 Passenger Airline Activity ................................................................................................................. 3-10 3.1.3 Aircraft Operations .............................................................................................................................. 3-12 3.2 Factors Affecting Aviation Activity at the Airport .................................................................................... 3-16 3.2.1 Population .............................................................................................................................................. 3-16 3.2.2 Economic Activity................................................................................................................................. 3-16 3.2.3 State of the Airline Industry ............................................................................................................. 3-19 3.2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions ................................................................................................................. 3-19 3.2.5 Cost of Aviation Fuel .......................................................................................................................... 3-20 3.2.6 Threat of Terrorism and Geopolitical Issues ............................................................................. 3-21 3.2.7 American Airlines ................................................................................................................................. 3-21 3.2.8 Southwest Airlines ............................................................................................................................... 3-22 3.2.9 Ultra Low-Cost Carriers ..................................................................................................................... 3-24 3.2.10 Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport ..................................................................................................... 3-24 3.3 Enplaned Passenger Forecast .......................................................................................................................... 3-25 3.3.1 Assumptions Underlaying the Forecast ...................................................................................... 3-26 3.3.2 Passenger Forecast Methodology and Results ........................................................................ 3-26 3.4 Cargo Forecast ....................................................................................................................................................... 3-33 3.4.1 Air Cargo Overview and Industry Trends ................................................................................... 3-33 3.4.2 The Amazon Impact on the Cargo Market ................................................................................ 3-33 3.4.3 Impact of Drones ................................................................................................................................. 3-34 3.4.4 Phoenix Air Cargo Market ................................................................................................................ 3-34 3.4.5 Airport Cargo Activity Forecast ...................................................................................................... 3-37 3.5 Operations Forecast ............................................................................................................................................ 3-41 3.5.1 Passenger Airline Operations Forecast ....................................................................................... 3-41 3.5.2 All-Cargo Operations Forecast ....................................................................................................... 3-41 Comprehensive Asset Management Plan | i | Table of Contents DRAFT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MAY 2018 DRAFT 3.5.3 General Aviation, Air Taxi, and Military Operations Forecast ............................................. 3-41 3.5.4 Comparison to Other Operations Forecasts ............................................................................. 3-46 3.6 Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................... 3-48 3.6.1 Scenario 1: Accelerated Growth ..................................................................................................... 3-48 3.6.2 Scenario 2: Reduction in Connecting Passenger Activity .................................................... 3-48 3.6.3 Scenario 3: Economic Recession .................................................................................................... 3-52 3.7 Design Day Flight Schedules............................................................................................................................ 3-52 3.7.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 3-52 3.7.2 Design Day Flight Schedule Development – Passenger Airlines ...................................... 3-52 3.7.3 Design Day Flight Schedule – Base Year (2017) ...................................................................... 3-52 3.7.4 Design Day Flight Schedule – Future Years (2022, 2027, and 2037) ............................... 3-53 3.7.5 Design Day Flight Schedule Summary – Passenger Airlines............................................... 3-54 LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1 Historical Enplaned Passengers and Aircraft Operations by Year .................................................... 3-2 Table 3-2 Airlines Serving the Airport ............................................................................................................................. 3-4 Table 3-3 Passenger Airlines Serving the Airport By Year ....................................................................................... 3-5 Table 3-4 Enplaned Passengers by Airline Since 2013 ............................................................................................. 3-6 Table 3-5 Originating & Destination and Connecting Passengers by Year .................................................. 3-10 Table 3-6 Mainline and Regional Enplaned Passengers ....................................................................................... 3-11 Table 3-7 Domestic and International Enplaned passengers ............................................................................. 3-12 Table 3-8 Historical Aircraft Operations ...................................................................................................................... 3-13 Table 3-9 Mainline and Regional Operations and Average Aircraft Seats .................................................... 3-14 Table 3-10 Passenger Airline Operations and Share by Airline ............................................................................ 3 -1 5 Table 3-11 American Airlines Departing Seats by Hub in 2017 ........................................................................... 3-21 Table 3-12 Southwest Airlines Departing Seats by Focus City in 2017 ............................................................. 3-23 Table 3-13 Ultra Low-Cost Carriers Departing Seats and Seat Share ................................................................ 3-24 Table 3-14 Destinations Served From Both Phoenix Sky Harbor International and Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airports in 2017 .............................................................................................................................. 3 -2 5 Table 3-15 Historical and Projected Socioeconomic Variables ........................................................................... 3-27 Table 3-16 Originating and Destination Passenger Forecast Regression Analysis Results ....................... 3-28 Comprehensive Asset Management Plan | ii | Table of Contents DRAFT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MAY 2018 DRAFT Table 3-17 Share of Domestic Originating & Destination Connections by Year and Airline ................... 3-29 Table 3-18 Historical and Forecast Originating and Destination and Connecting Passengers by Year 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