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A Relatively Cautious View for 2019, Reiterate "Accumulate"

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A Relatively Cautious View for 2019, Reiterate 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: China Merchants Port (00144 HK) Spencer Fan 范明 究 (86755) 2397 6686 Equity Research 公司报告： 招商局港口 (00144 HK) [email protected] 10 May 2019 A[Table_S Relativelyummary ]Cautious View for 2019, Reiterate "Accumulate" 对2019年维持相对谨慎，重申“收集” The Company's management guided low single-digit growth in 2019. On [Table_Rank] the other hand, the management predicts that the Company's main driving Rating: Accumulate Maintained force in 2019 will come from the overseas segment, and it expects overseas 公 container volume to record medium-to-high single-digit YoY growth in 2019. 评级： 收集 (维持) 司 Domestic port container loading and unloading operation fee might not be 报 greatly adjusted in 2019, while handling fees of some overseas ports might increase. Overall, we expect CMP's port business to generate low single-digit [Table_Price] 告 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$16.80 YoY revenue growth in 2019. Revised from 原目标价: HK$17.00 Company Report Qianhai land ready to release value; the disposal of land interests is Share price 股价: HK$15.120 expected to bring about HK$3.58 billion in after-tax income. We believe that China Merchants Port will benefit indirectly from the long-term development of Shenzhen’s Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone. It is Stock performance understood that Qianhai Land will still be developed in accordance with the 股价表现 mature development model of the "Port-Zone-City" of China Merchants [Table_QuotePic] Group. % of return 10.0 Reiterate "Accumulate" rating and adjust TP to HK$16.80. CMP’s port 5.0 resources are still balanced, and we still favor CMP's overseas development 0.0 capability. As the leader in the Chinese port industry, CMP’s current valuation (5.0) 证 remains attractive. Our TP represents 6.9x, 8.3x and 7.3x 2019-2021 PER. (10.0) 券 告 (15.0) 管理层指引 年公司吞吐量有望录得低单位数增长。另一方面，管理层预测公司 2019 2019 (20.0) 研 报 年的主要驱动力将来自海外，并预测海外箱量有望录得中高单位数增速。2019 年国内港口 (25.0) 集装箱装卸作业费不会有较大调整，而部分海外港口装卸费则可能上涨。总体来看，我们 (30.0) 究 究 预计 2019 年公司港口装卸业务收入将会呈现低单位数的同比增长。 May/18 Aug/18 Nov/18 Jan/19 May/19 报 研 前海土地开始释放价值：土地利益的处置有望带来 35.8 亿港元税后收益。我们认为招商 HSI CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HDLGS 告 局港口将间接并长期受益于深圳前海蛇口自贸区的开发。据了解，前海土地依然将按照招 券 商局集团的“前港-中区-后城”成熟发展模式开发。 Equity Research Report Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 证 重申“收集”评级并调整目标价至 16.80 港元。公司国内港口配置资源仍然均衡，我们依旧 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 看好招商局港口在海外的拓展能力。作为国内港口行业龙头，公司目前估值水平仍吸引。 [Tab Abs. % (8.1) (5.5) (13.5) 我们的目标价对应 6.9 倍、8.3 倍及 7.3 倍的 2019-2021 年市盈率。 绝对变动 % le_I Rel. % to HS Index (2.9) (7.7) (6.2) 相对恒指变动 % nfo1 Avg. Share price(HK$) 15.9 16.4 15.7 港 平均股价（港元） ] Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 口 行 业 Ports Sector Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2017A 8,692 6,028 1.839 4.7 8.2 22.409 0.7 2.109 14.0 8.7 [Tab 2018A 10,160 7,245 2.196 19.4 6.9 22.826 0.7 0.958 6.3 9.7 le_I 2019F 10,231 8,016 2.429 10.6 6.2 24.496 0.6 0.972 6.4 10.3 nfo2 2020F 11,037 6,681 2.024 (16.7) 7.5 25.727 0.6 0.607 4.0 8.0 2021F 11,782 7,586 2.299 13.6 6.6 27.549 0.5 0.689 4.6 8.6 中] 招 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,299,845,627.0 Major shareholder 大股东 China Merchants Group 61.7% 外 [Table_BaseData] 商 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 49,893,665,880.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 38.3 运 局 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 3,475.6 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) 35.2 港输 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 19.160 / 13.080 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 28.0 口 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. China Merchants Port (00144 HK) China Port Merchants (00144 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]China Merchants Port (00144 HK) With in-line annual results, China Merchants Port’s ("CMP" or "the Company") operations in 2019 might face more obstacles from external forces; we believe in the Company’s operations capability. ] CMP1 r ’s 201a M 8 revenuet h g i increasedR _ e l 16.9%b a T [ YoY to HK$10.16 bn, in line with our estimation. Shareholders’ profit rose 20.2% YoY to HK$7.245 bn, slightly higher than our expectation. Excluding proceeds from sale of the former Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings ("SCW") amounting HK$3.733 bn, 2018 recurring profit fell 21.8% YoY to HK$4,294 mn. In which, net profit of port business slightly fell 4.9% YoY to HK$5.716 bn, mainly due to profit decline of Shanghai International Port Group ("SIPG", 600018 SH) and higher-than-expected costs. Financial expenses rose 36% YoY, mainly due to new issuance of notes for the newly acquired Paranagua port projects; management 10 May 2019 expenses increased 50% YoY, mainly due to restructuring and acquisition-related activity costs. CMP’s overall container throughput increased 6.0% YoY to 109.06 mn TEUs, mainly due to overseas port growth (up 12.9% YoY). Mainland ports contributed YoY growth of 4.7%, missing our expectations. The management expects CMP’s container throughput growth to stay flat or yield low single-digit YoY growth in 2019. The main driving force is the projected YoY growth of medium-to-high single-digit percentage growth in overseas regions. The management expects domestic container handling charge fees to stay flat, while they expect overseas port loading and unloading fees to increase in 2019. Pearl River Delta For 1Q19, CMP’s throughput in the Pearl River Delta declined 8.0% YoY to 4.135 mn TEUs, missing our expectation, mainly due to sluggish export figures in the region. Exports of goods via the Pearl River Delta are mainly low value-added light industrial products. These exports have been affected by rising labor/ rental costs as well as the Sino-U] .S2 . r tradea M wart h ing 1Q19i R ._ Fore l 2018,b a T [ terminals in West Shenzhen handled container throughput of 10.69 mn TEUs, down by 4.4% YoY, of which international container throughput occupied 94.1% of the total (10.06 mn TEUs, down 2.4% YoY, mainly due to disposal of CMP’s entire equity interest in SCW, currently known as China Merchants Port Group (001872 SZ, CMP’s parent company). Affected by decrease in business volume due to infrastructure upgrade and transformation, Haixing Ports’ bulk cargo volume handled in the West Shenzhen Port Zone amounted 13.62 mn tonnes, down 37.5% YoY. The overall container throughput handled by ports in Hong Kong decreased by 5.7% YoY, of which container throughput handled by ports in Kwai Tsing area decreased by 4.7% YoY. Modern Terminals Limited and China Merchants Container Services Limited delivered an aggregate container throughput of 5.93 mn TEUs, up by 2.5% YoY, which outperformed the overall market of Hong Kong. We expect CMP’s overall Pearl River Delta throughput growth to (00144 HK) stay flat in 2019. Yangtze River Delta 招商局港口 Shanghai International Port ("SIPG", 600018 SH) handled container throughput of 10.4 mn/ 42.01 mn TEUs in 1Q19/ 2018, up YoY by 6.9%/ 4.4%, in line with our expectation. SIPC’s steady improvements were mainly driven by the increase in the number of shipping routes due to the re-organization of shipping alliances, and the release of handling capacity since the commencement of operation of Yangshan Phase IV, SIPG’s fully automated terminal. Bulk cargo volume handled decreased 8.3% YoY to 150 mn tonnes due to decrease in amount of coal handled upon the adjustments on the structure of bulk cargo sources made by SIPG. Ningbo Daxie terminal handled container throughput of 0.813 mn/ 3.16 mn TEUs for 1Q19/ 2018, representing changes YoY of China Merchants Port -4.1%/ 5.1%, mainly due to 1Q18 high base as well as adjustment of relevant shipping routes. Overseas In 1Q19/ 2018, total container throughput handled by CMP’s overseas operations rose YoY by 5.9%/ 12.9% to 5.115 mn/ 20.66 mn TEUs, among which throughput handled by CICT in Sri Lanka rose by 4.5%/ 12.0% YoY to 0.668 mn/ 2.68 mn TEUs, respectively. Container throughput handled by LCT in Togo increased YoY by 10.7%/ 18.3% to 0.263 mn/ 1.05 mn TEUs. Throughput handled in Nigeria was 0.113 mn/ 0.48 mn TEUs, representing YoY change of -14.3%/ 2.4%. Container throughput handled by Port de Djibouti S.A. in Djibouti amounted to 0.231 mn/ 0.86 mn TEUs for 1Q19/ 2018, changing YoY by 23.8%/ -7.5%, mainly attributable by decrease in trans-shipment volumes to Ethiopia during 1Q19. Container throughput handled by Kumport in Turkey declined by 6.0% YoY to 0.293 mn TEUs in 1Q19. TCP Participações S.A. ("TCP") in Brazil recoded YoY increase of 192.9% YoY, or 0.205 mn TEUs, due to high base effect, while the management expects TCP to generate profit in 2019, signaling throughput ramp-up under CMP’s enhancing operations.
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