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Morocco LNG Delays, Gas Plans in Doubt

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Morocco LNG Delays, Gas Plans in Doubt Weekly Energy, Economic & Geopolitical Outlook Vol. 60. No. 15 14.April.2017. CORPORATE OIL & GAS 2 TRANSportatION 5 BP Poised For Strong Year In Mena REFINING & 6 PetrocHEMIcaLS In contrast to a mixed 2016, BP’s return to Abu Dhabi’s onshore as well a key startup set for the POWER & Water 7 second half of the year will provide an immediate boost to the major’s output figures, paving the road OPEC for 2017 being a defining year for the company in terms of production gains. Page 11 8 GEOPOLITIcaL RISK 10 Corporate 11 ECONOMICS & 13 FINANCE SELecteD Data 15 OIL & GAS OIL & GAS TRANSPORTATION REFINING & PETHCHEMS Israel: Plenty Morocco LNG Oman: Output Oman-Kuwait Of Gas, No Delays, Gas Rising, Revenue Ink New Market? Plans In Doubt Falling Refinery Deal New field developments could Political deadlocks have While production and exports State firms from Oman and leave Israel facing a surplus hindered Morocco’s plans to of Omani LNG actually Kuwait have signed a multi- of gas. Absence of adequate progress with an LNG import rose, price falls still mean billion deal to build a joint domestic demand means terminal. After a two year the increase is not enough to refinery in Oman scheduled to substantial export deals will be delay, it now hopes to start prevent revenues dropping to a commence operations by 2020. required. Page 2 importing by 2023. Page 4 12 year low. Page 5 Page 6 POWER & WATER OPEC GEOPOLITIcaL RISK ECONOMICS & FINANCE Saudi Targets US Oil Trade Libya Oil Saudi Shifts 9.5GW Of Hits Record In Output Starts Investment Renewables 2017 To Tumble Strategy Riyad shortlisted 27 companies The US has seen a sharp rise in Political splits in Libya have Saudi Arabia’s Public for round one of a renewables crude exports in Q1 2017 while put the country once more Investment Fund has started program aimed at developing imports have not actually on a downward trajectory carving out its international solar and wind capacity fallen so far. This means that as progress is once again investment strategy. If through independent power the US had a full 17% of total hampered and export volumes successful, it will become the producer projects. Page 7 world oil trade in Q1. Page 8 are floundering. Page 10 world’s largest SWF. Page 13 ISRAEL Israel: www.mees.com www.mees.com Lots Of Gas But Where’s The Market? S evelopment of Israel’s 22 ISRAEL GAS DEMAND FORECAST BY SECTOR (MN CFD) SOURCE: ISRAEL ENERGY MINISTRY, MEES CALCULATIONS. A tcf Leviathan field was 3,500 sanctioned in February, LEViatHAN PHase 2 D COMES ONLINE GAS OUTPUT (MN CFD) despite the lack of any size- 3,000 able export deals and the fact that the KARISH & TANIN 2030: 700MN CFD REQUIRED EXPORTS OIL & G country’s only producing field, 10 tcf COME ONLINE 2,500 Tamar, has scope to boost output beyond LEViatHAN PHase 1A METHANOL the current 1bn cfd. Do the prospects COMES ONLINE 2022: 1.14BN CFD † 2,000 for gas sales justify such development? Transport Israeli gas demand was 9.39bcm INDUstry in 2016 or 830mn cfd. Israel’s Energy 1,500 Ministry expects gas demand to reach 1.1bn cfd by 2020, 1.6bn cfd by 2030 1,000 and 2.2bn cfd by 2040, by which time ELECTRICITY the power sector will account for 67% 500 of the mix, industry 15%, transport 16% and methanol 3% (see chart). 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 With the 2010 Leviathan offshore gas discovery due online in late 2019 Israel is facing a surplus, 1.14bn cfd in just 800mn cfd, fully exploiting such re- and possibly the smaller Karish and 2022, which is due to fall to 700mn cfd serves requires substantial export deals. Tanin not too long afterwards, Is- in 2030 with demand for gas increasing And despite a sheaf of LoIs – to Egypt, rael could have a surplus of gas that but that implies no more gas discover- Turkey, Jordan, and most fancifully a it would need to find a market for. ies are made and brought online. Israel pipeline to Europe via Cyprus, Greece That’s not even taking into account will be hoping that is not the case after and Italy – none have been finalized. the possible ramp-up of Leviathan. it launched a bid round for 24 offshore So far a deal signed in February 2014 This could very well mean Leviathan blocks in November last year that is due to supply Jordan’s Arab Potash Company, development could be delayed until an to close on 10 July (MEES, 17 February). with 1.9bcm of gas over 15 years, is about export market is found and that Karish as exotic as it gets. Supplies under this and Tanin will remain undeveloped. If EXPORT DEALS NEEDED ç deal, which began in January, appear to a sizeable export deal is not signed then have slipped under the political radar. despite having reached FID, Levia- Almost 40 tcf of gas has been discov- Not so a substantially larger $10bn deal than development could yet stall. ered offshore Israel since 2009. But, given which would see Leviathan gas supply If development does go ahead then domestic consumption of gas in 2016 was Jordan’s National Electric Company (Nepco) with 45bcm of gas over 15 years GAS OUSTING COAL which has yet to be finalized amid political pressure (MEES, 6 January). Even with the government’s deci- from Tamar, which hit record output of All of which made operator US firm sion in 2015 to begin phasing out coal 8.9bn cfd while 7% came from LNG. Noble Energy’s decision in Febru- burning in its electricity sector by 15% IEC’s capacity is 13.617 GW and ary to sanction Leviathan somewhat in 2016 (with actual cutbacks reach- itgenerates 72% of the electricity in surprising (MEES, 24 February). ing 17%) and by a further 5% this year, the market while IPPs generate 25%. The partners (Noble 39.66%, Delek 14.April.2017 filling that oidv with gas is a more 45.34%, Ratio 15%) aim to implement ISRAEL ELECTRIC CO^ FUEL MIX (%) gradual and time-consuming process. Phase 1 development in two stages, RENEWABLES Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz says FUEL OIL 0.6 0.1 0.1 dependent on the progress of export DIESEL 100 2.6 0.1 0.7 0.4 that Israel is looking to reduce the use of 10 deals. Phase 1A comprises four devel- coal within the energy mix to 10% by 2025. 90 opment wells, including the two wells He says this will be achieved once four NatURAL Gas 80 40.6 41.7 41.6 49.9 59.9 80 drilled to date, and the installation of coal units at the power station at Hadera 70 12 bcm/year treatment facilities at are shut down and replaced by natural gas a cost of approximately $3.5-4bn. power plants, as well as operating the re- 60 The second scaled back stage will maining coal units at minimum capacity. 50 see a further four wells drilled and The minister says Israel is targeting the platform’s gas treatment capac- 40 natural gas to make up 80% of the coun- ity raised by around 9 bcm/year, try’s electricity output within the next 30 while a second 12 bcm/year pipeline five years with 10% from renewables and Coal 20 will connect the platform to a fu- the remaining 10% from coal (see chart). ture (unspecified) export market. Israel’s state electric company (IEC) 10 The original development plan 56.2 58.2 57.6 49.6 40.1 10 generated 49.6% of its electricity from 0 envisaged a 16.5 bcm/year (1.6bn cfd) coal last year, 46.3% from gas from 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017F 2022F floating production storage and offload- Tamar and 3.6% from LNG imports 2017 FORECAST PRESUMES 20% PLANNED RISE IN GAS USE IS HIT ing (FPSO) vessel. However the current WHILST OIL BURNING IS ENDED. ^IEC ACCOUNTS FOR 72% OF ISRAELI (three cargoes from Trinidad). In 2016 GENERATION CAPACITY. SMALLER GENERATORS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE RELIANT ON COAL. SOURCE: IEC, MEES CALCULATIONS. ©Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications (Cyprus) Ltd and Economic Publications (Cyprus) ©Middle East Petroleum Strictly Prohibited MEES Is Reproducing 93% of the gas consumed by IEC came Continued on – p3 2 COUNTRYCOISRAELUNTRY Continued from – p2 stake in Tamar to 25% while Delek will be gas from both fields, neither have pro- forced to farm-out all of its stakes in the gressed further. And the aformentioned same field by 2020 (essentially ending the deal to supply Jordan with 45bcm of gas project is for a much pared back Phase 1A. partners’ monopoly of offshore Israel) is still awaiting Amman’s green light. Which makes it somewhat surpris- � most observers expect the Energean That deal was seen as crucial for sanc- ing that Greek firm Energean has been plans to stay on the drawing board. But tioning Leviathan but the firms went www.mees.com bullish regarding the development of that also appeared to be the case for Le- ahead with FID on the field in the hope its Karish and Tanin fields, which hold viathan in the absence of a major export it would push the deal over the line. an estimated combined 3 tcf (see box). deal. Even with the pared back Phase Energean in a conceptual development 1A, which at $3.75bn, is almost 50% less Unrealistic PLANS ç S plan released in March says it has com- than the full original development plans, A pleted the engineering feasibility study it remains to be seen if the economics Israel has also recently talked up the and is targeting FID by the end of 2017.
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