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Comparative Studies of Energy Supply Options in Poland for 1997–2020 Iaea, Vienna, 2002 Iaea-Tecdoc-1304 Isbn 92–0–112602–6 Issn 1011–4289

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Comparative Studies of Energy Supply Options in Poland for 1997–2020 Iaea, Vienna, 2002 Iaea-Tecdoc-1304 Isbn 92–0–112602–6 Issn 1011–4289 IAEA-TECDOC-1304 Comparative studies of energy supply options in Poland for 1997–2020 August 2002 The originating Section of this publication in the IAEA was: Planning and Economic Studies Section International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramer Strasse 5 P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna, Austria COMPARATIVE STUDIES OF ENERGY SUPPLY OPTIONS IN POLAND FOR 1997–2020 IAEA, VIENNA, 2002 IAEA-TECDOC-1304 ISBN 92–0–112602–6 ISSN 1011–4289 © IAEA, 2002 Printed by the IAEA in Austria August 2002 FOREWORD Poland depends heavily on coal to satisfy national demands for electricity. Currently, over 90% of electricity generation is produced by coal fired power plants. Because of the large dependence on coal and environmental impacts of large-scale coal combustion the country looks for a more diversified energy mix. As ways of diversification, Poland is considering the expanded role of natural gas and, potentially, nuclear power in the future energy mix. This publication describes the analysis of several diversification options for the Polish energy sector conducted by a national team in the framework of an IAEA Technical Co- operation project implemented in 1999–2000. The project provided a set of proven IAEA methodologies and tools that was utilized for a comprehensive analysis and comparison of the options including their economic competitiveness and environmental impacts. The publication is intended primarily for senior experts and technical staff in governmental organizations, research institutes, industries and utilities, who are in charge of technical analysis or decision making related to long term energy and power supply options. The report was prepared in 2001 by the staff of the Energy Market Agency (EMA, Warsaw, Poland) that was the leading Polish organization in carrying out the study. The IAEA wishes to express its gratitude to all Polish experts who participated in the preparation of the report. Special thanks are due to A. Kerner, who led the technical staff of EMA through the whole project, B. Hamilton (Adica Consulting, USA), who managed the project as the IAEA Technical Officer in 1999–2000, and T. Veselka (Argonne National Laboratory, USA), who supported the study through several expert missions to Poland and contributed extensively to the report, in particular with respect to the application of the GTMax model. The responsible IAEA officer for this publication was S. Kononov of the Planning and Economic Studies Section, Department of Nuclear Energy. EDITORIAL NOTE The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. CONTENTS 0. SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................1 0.1. Study background, objectives, and organization..........................................................1 0.2. Country background .....................................................................................................1 0.3. Assumed macro-economic scenarios ...........................................................................3 0.4. Analytical methodologies and tools .............................................................................4 0.4.1. Projection of energy demand.............................................................................4 0.4.2. Long-term analysis of the power system...........................................................4 0.4.3. Long-term analysis of the energy system..........................................................5 0.4.4. Assessment of environmental impacts of energy supply and use .....................5 0.4.5. Short-term analysis of power system operation ................................................5 0.5. Projection of final energy demand ...............................................................................7 0.6. Projection of primary energy demand ..........................................................................9 0.6.1. Assumptions ......................................................................................................9 0.6.2. Results .............................................................................................................10 0.7. Environmental impacts...............................................................................................14 0.8. Analysis of short-term operation of the power market...............................................17 0.8.1. Assumptions ....................................................................................................17 0.8.2. Results .............................................................................................................18 0.9. Conclusions ................................................................................................................21 1. STUDY ORGANIZATION, BACKGROUND, AND OBJECTIVES................................23 1.1. Background ................................................................................................................23 1.2. Study scope and objectives.........................................................................................23 1.3. Organization of project implementation.....................................................................26 2. COUNTRY BACKGROUND.............................................................................................28 2.1. Poland: Geography, climate, natural resources, and population...................................28 2.2. Recent political and economic evolution......................................................................29 2.3. Key economic and energy indicators............................................................................31 2.4. Energy supply and use ..................................................................................................34 2.5. Hard coal industry.........................................................................................................39 2.6. Polish electric power system.........................................................................................41 2.7. Environmental situation................................................................................................44 3. ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION ..................................................................................48 3.1. Macroeconomic scenarios.............................................................................................48 3.2. Final Energy demand projections .................................................................................53 3.2.1. Introduction ......................................................................................................53 3.2.2. Methodology ....................................................................................................53 3.2.3. Results – Projections of final energy demand..................................................56 3.3. Primary energy demand projections .............................................................................62 3.3.1. Methodology ....................................................................................................62 3.3.2. General assumptions.........................................................................................75 3.3.3. Primary energy demand projections.................................................................77 3.3.4. Projection of fuel input for electricity and heat cogeneration ..........................80 3.3.5. Analysis of the electricity generation mix........................................................83 3.3.6. Energy supply security indices.........................................................................87 3.3.7. Energy prices for end-users..............................................................................88 3.4. Basic indicators of energy use ......................................................................................89 3.5. Environmental considerations.......................................................................................90 3.5.1. Methodology for Emission Estimates ..............................................................90 3.5.2. Main Input Assumptions ..................................................................................92 3.5.3. Airborne Emission Projections.........................................................................94 3.6. Conclusions...................................................................................................................98 4. POWER MARKET ANALYSIS........................................................................................101 4.1. Modeling methodology...............................................................................................101 4.2. Gtmax network components .......................................................................................102 4.2.1. Gtmax model topology...................................................................................102 4.2.2. CHP technology description...........................................................................102 4.3. Modelling results
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