Hanna Trojanowska1 Miroslaw Duda2

Nuclear power program for : objectives, framework program and basic

CHALLENGES

1. Introduction On January 13, 2009, the Council of the Ministers of Poland adopted a resolution on development in Poland and commissioning of the first in in 2020. The decision is in line with the national energy policy until 2030 adopted by the government in 2009 which reflects all challenges which will be faced by Poland when developing its energy sector, particularly ecological requirements imposed within the European Union. The new energy policy formulates ambitious tasks on improvement of energy efficiency of the national economy that will curb the growth of primary energy demand and reduce adverse impact of the energy sector on the environment. It will allow for GDP growth to the year 2030 at an average pace of about 5 % with practically no increase of primary energy demand until 2020, and only modest rise between 2021 and 2030 because of the introduction less efficient but environment friendly technology. The demand of electricity in 2030 is projected at the level of 217 TWh which is higher than in 2007 by only 41 % and sets the average yearly growth at 1,5 % (elasticity factor about 0,3). For the power sector the energy policy sets the following goals: - assuring long-term security of electricity supply, - maintaining electricity prices at levels acceptable by the national economy and the society; - reducing emission of SO2, NOx, and CO2 and increasing the share of RES in the final energy mix to levels defined by EU requirements. It would be extremely difficult to achieve the goals of the energy policy in the power sector if the existing fuel mix of electricity generation (fig.1), with huge domination of coal and lignite (over 90 %), is maintained. It is inevitably necessary to diversify fuel types and sources as coal becomes a source of energy which brings severe ecological problems, particularly related to CO2 emission, and leads to extreme surge of electricity costs. The

1 Undersecretary of State, Commissioner of the Government of Poland on Nuclear Energy. 2 Energy Market Agency, Warsaw. Poland. commitments of the European Union to reduce emission of greenhouse gases by 20 % in 2020 and further ambitious targets in this respect create hard challenges for Poland. It is therefore obvious that Poland should strive for changing the mix of primary energy of electricity generation for more secure and more ecological. Nuclear power becomes a universal remedy for resolving those problems. However, the change of the fuel mix and introduction of nuclear option in Poland is not an easy task. There are several limitation of the pace of this process based on availability of technological and financial resources as well as time necessary to implement such fundamental changes. In the forecast to 2030 in which all those limitations were taken into account the share of electricity production from nuclear power plants will reach at most 15,7 %(% 2).

Natural gas 3% Wastes

Fig. 1 Existing fuel mix of electricity generation in Poland (source: Energy Market Agency)

Nuclear fuel 15.7% Lignite

6-6% Oil products 36.0% 1.5%

Fig. 2 Fuel mix of electricity generation predicted for 2030 Soon after the governmental resolution on nuclear energy the Prime Minister nominated Government Commissioner for Nuclear Power to coordinate the creation of legal, regulatory and institutional framework necessary for the development of the nuclear power sector and the construction of nuclear power plants in Poland. The Government has also appointed the biggest State owned power company in Poland, PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna (Polish Energy Group), as a leading power utility for the preparation and implementation of the nuclear power program. PGE will be an investor of the first nuclear power plant in Poland.

2. Framework program of nuclear power development Together with the decision to go nuclear the government of Poland has adopted a framework program aimed at: - defining a feasible scope for nuclear power development under present and predicted conditions; - specifying the necessary activities and tasks to be fulfilled by participants of the program within a proposed time schedule; - estimating the costs of nuclear power development and indicating recommended sources of its financing, - achieving sufficient public acceptance of the program in economic, social and ecological aspects of nuclear energy. The Program is based on IAEA recommendations „Milestones In the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power” and other documents in this series. Legislation and other activities enabling the implementation and functioning of the nuclear power sector within this Program will follow IAEA principles and guidelines and will be based on the experience of other IAEA Member States. The Framework Program consists of four stages: I stage until 31.12.2010: preparation of the detailed program and its approval by the government; II stage for 2011 - 2013: site selection and conclusion of a contract for construction of the first NPP; III stage for 2014 - 2015: preparation of technical documentation and obtaining all required licenses and permits; IVstage for 2016 - 2020: construction and commissioning of the first nuclear unit. The Program is very ambitious but realistic. Poland will use know-how of IAEA and EU countries that operate and construct new nuclear power plants as well as experience of Polish companies that are involved in construction of Olkiluoto NPP in Finland and most probably will be hired to construct the new NPPs in the region. In Poland there exist also many internationally based companies, sufficiently prepared to build power stations, mostly coal and gas based, but their experience can be used extensively for construction of NPPs. Within the Framework Program different participants have their specific tasks. The governmental administration is to undertake, i. a., the following tasks: - adaptation of Polish legislation and regulations to the needs of nuclear industry, - fulfilling Poland’s international obligations related to the introduction of nuclear energy into the Polish power sector; - survey and selection of regions, suitable for of NPPs sites; - surveys and selection of sites suitable for low and medium radioactive waste storages and construction of low and medium radioactive waste depository; - elaboration of National Plan for High Radioactive Wastes and Spent Fuel Management; - launching a human resources acquisition and training program for entities involved in the Program; - information and education campaign among different authorities and groups of society; - strengthening R&D resources in the nuclear field; - creating favourable conditions for involvement of Polish industry into the Program; - launching R&D programs for investigation of uranium resources in Poland; - restructuring the National Atomic Energy Agency to fulfil the duty of nuclear regulator. The investor of the first NPP (PGE - Polish Energy Group) has, i. a., the following tasks in respect to the first NPP: - preparing all necessary prefeasibility studies; - establishing a consortium of main stakeholders for construction of the plant; - elaborating a feasibility study; - final site selection; - determining the way and sources of financing construction of the plant; - launching the bidding processes for selection of technology and construction suppliers; - preparing all necessary technical documentation (design) of the plant for selected site; - obtaining all required licenses and permits for construction and commissioning of the plant; - acquiring andtraining of the operation personnel; - selecting fuel suppliers and conclusion all contracts required; - supervising the construction and commissioning of the plant.

3. Main challenges Public acceptance Poland has a specific situation when undertaking the present program of nuclear energy development. This is because the previous experience in launching the nuclear option in Poland in 1980s has failed. The failure was caused, i. a., by obligatory implementation of the soviet technology which, after the Chernobyl accident, threatened the Polish society and also politicians, although NPP Zarnowiec, being that time under construction, had a different type reactor. Also the fall of the old political system and centrally planned economy made unable completion of the plant. Since that time the public opinion in Poland has been totally against nuclear energy until recently. The latest results of the pools show growing support to nuclear energy among Polish population (fig.3). In favour of the NPP Against □ Undecided construction □ the NPP construction

XI 1987 XI 1989 VI 2006 VII 2008 II 2009 IX 2009

Fig.3 Results of the investigation of public opinion about nuclear power plants in Poland

Unfortunately, the support is not complete as majority of interrogated people still is against construction of a NPP in vicinity of their houses (fig.4). It shows well known syndrome NYMBY (not in my back yard).

In favour □ Against □ Undecided of the construction the construction

VI2006

VII 2008

IX 2009

Fig.4 Results of investigation of people’s opinion in Poland concerning construction of a NPP in vicinity of their houses

The public acceptance will depend very much on the scope of information provided in the mass media showing different aspects of energy supply, particularly the consequences of not going nuclear when the coal based energy becomes extremely costly because of its ecological impact, especially when external costs are considered. It should be shown that the option based on very costly renewable energy sources whose rational resources are limited, or gas fired plants with high predicted prices of this energy carrier, will lead to unacceptable burden to the economy and households. In Poland, with its power sector almost totally based on domestic coal and lignite, it would be rather difficult to convince fully miners’ trade unions. Although the energy policy until 2030 foresees the coal and lignite based electricity generation at the level amounting to 100-110 TWh per year for the next 20 years which will be also a great challenge for the mining sector. This is because the competitiveness of domestic coal on its international market drastically falls down and the development of coal option would need a growing import of that energy carrier. International obligation to reduce the CO2 emission imposed on the Polish power sector also means huge investments in clean coal technology. These facts, additionally indicate onthe need of the nuclear power development. Improving public acceptance of nuclear energy will be an important task of the governmental and local administration. Luckily, local authorities become more and more in favor of building NPPs on their territories as they see many advantages of such investments. Generally, they expect a boost of the local economy, especially reduction of unemployment. Public acceptance will grow once the government assures compensation for living in the proximity of NPPs. Almost 74% of the population definitely agree with the initiative of compensation. . This should be in a form of lower electricity prices, employment priorities, free vacation or free medical care for kids. Legal and regulatory infrastructure Successful development of nuclear energy depends very much on a properly prepared legal and administrative infrastructure. Poland, as a member of the European Union, can use experience of other EU member countries and the Community itself but one should be aware of very bureaucratic procedures which sometimes are in contradiction to their efficiency. The most difficult task is to find a “golden mean” in this respect.

Legislation and other activities enabling the implementation and functioning of the nuclear power sector will follow IAEA principles and guidelines and will be based on the experience of other IAEA Member States. Poland will use the IAEA nuclear safety standards, and the EU requirements on creating the infrastructure for nuclear power projects3. Poland in this respect will also use the existing legislation of the European Union.

At present, Poland has the Atomic Energy Law of 2000 and the Energy Law of 1997

3 „Basic Infrastructure for a Nuclear Power Project”, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA -TECDOC- 1513 , June 2006. which have been several times amended in accordance with the EU legislation. The Atomic Law defines the activities related to peaceful use of atomic energy, the duties of the head of the organization conducting these activities, the authorities competent on safety and radiation protection and the principles of third party liability for nuclear damage. According to the Law majority of licenses are issued by the President of the National Atomic Energy Agency. The Energy Law defines the principles of the development of the state energy policy, principles and terms of supply and use of fuels and energy, including heat, and operation of energy enterprises. It also determines the competent organs in issues of the fuel and energy economy. It creates conditions providing for energy security, efficient and rational use of fuels and energy, development of competition, and counteracting negative consequences of the existence of natural monopolies,

Atomic and energy laws will have to be amended to create comprehensive regulatory environment for entities acting in the nuclear power business. Also other laws will have to be amended, mostly to assure clear and not overlapping regulatory competences of different kinds of nuclear power entities’ activities. Specific features of nuclear power plants will have to be reflected also in the laws pertaining to physical plans that are very important for siting procedures of nuclear facilities..

The most urgent organizational task is restructuring of the National Atomic Energy Agency (PAA) to separate promoting and regulatory activity of this organization and to create strong, independent and credible nuclear regulatory authority.

Financing Although financing of nuclear power investments is the main task of the investor public assistance will have to be applied to finance a certain share of the necessary expenditures. This will be necessary to cover all the costs related to nuclear power infrastructure in the national scale. A question arises if the investor can obtain a governmental leverage in its expenditures for construction of the “first of a kind unit”. This will be subject of governmental debate when tackling financing issues. As it is shown in the preliminary assessments of investment expenditures the investor should not have excessive difficulties in financing construction of the first NPP using a financing scheme similar to that adopted in Finland for NPP Olkiluoto. In the national scale the overall investment expenditures for realization of the projected extension of the power system are bankable provided electricity prices will rise sufficiently: almost twofold in real terms to the year 2020. That high increase of prices is necessary mostly to assure financing of the ecological investments. After 2020, owing to the introduction of NPPs, the electricity prices will not grow what is a substantial rationale in favor of NPPs. NPP technology The technology for the first NPP in Poland will be subject of competitive bidding organized by the investor. However, the technology selection for the first NPP will have inevitable impact on the next NPPs to be erected by the same or other investors. The State owned investor will have to cooperate with the governmental administration in order to take into account also the national interest related to the future NPPs as well as international commitments of the State concerning nuclear safety and nuclear fuel cycle (GNEP). Quite good experience in Poland in construction of conventional power plants and lack ofany experience in erection the nuclear island of NPPs provide for choosing (at least for the first NPP) a turn-key supply of reactor technology and split-package supply of technology of conventional part of NPP. This will require a strong coordination effort of the investor concerning liabilities. A supplier of the nuclear island will be chosen among those having profound experience and offering matured technology confirmed by many-years successful operation. Human resources After the failure of the nuclear program of 1980s Poland has lost almost completely all specialists who were trained that time and were involved in preparation and construction of NPP Zarnowiec. Practically the whole process of preparing human resources for implementation of the program will have to start from zero. This situation requires hiring foreign manpower, especially of the managerial level, to run construction of nuclear island and then commissioning of the whole NPP. Simultaneously, a huge educational and training programs have to be launched to fill up the gap between the needs and possibilities to recruit domestic resources. A lot of activities have been commenced already in this field with the assistance of the international organizations and based on bilateral cooperation. Also schools and universities, after the governmental decision to go nuclear, become interested in opening nuclear education.

4. Final remarks Reopening the way for implementation of nuclear is full of traps until the commissioning of the first unit of the NPP. This road resembles the obstacle race. But to overcome obstacles, it is necessary to be properly prepared and to recognize substantial risks and threats connected with each particular stage of the project. The ambitious objective of the Framework Program with the target date for the commissioning of the first NPP unit in 2020, is the greatest challenge in the history of the Polish energy market and the post war national economy. The only way to be successful in this project is to consider it as a national task, offering the development of innovative technologies of electricity generation and creating great chances for Polish industry.