Hanna Trojanowska1 Miroslaw Duda2 Nuclear power program for Poland : objectives, framework program and basic CHALLENGES 1. Introduction On January 13, 2009, the Council of the Ministers of Poland adopted a resolution on nuclear power development in Poland and commissioning of the first nuclear power plant in in 2020. The decision is in line with the national energy policy until 2030 adopted by the government in 2009 which reflects all challenges which will be faced by Poland when developing its energy sector, particularly ecological requirements imposed within the European Union. The new energy policy formulates ambitious tasks on improvement of energy efficiency of the national economy that will curb the growth of primary energy demand and reduce adverse impact of the energy sector on the environment. It will allow for GDP growth to the year 2030 at an average pace of about 5 % with practically no increase of primary energy demand until 2020, and only modest rise between 2021 and 2030 because of the introduction less efficient but environment friendly technology. The demand of electricity in 2030 is projected at the level of 217 TWh which is higher than in 2007 by only 41 % and sets the average yearly growth at 1,5 % (elasticity factor about 0,3). For the power sector the energy policy sets the following goals: - assuring long-term security of electricity supply, - maintaining electricity prices at levels acceptable by the national economy and the society; - reducing emission of SO2, NOx, and CO2 and increasing the share of RES in the final energy mix to levels defined by EU requirements. It would be extremely difficult to achieve the goals of the energy policy in the power sector if the existing fuel mix of electricity generation (fig.1), with huge domination of coal and lignite (over 90 %), is maintained. It is inevitably necessary to diversify fuel types and sources as coal becomes a source of energy which brings severe ecological problems, particularly related to CO2 emission, and leads to extreme surge of electricity costs. The 1 Undersecretary of State, Commissioner of the Government of Poland on Nuclear Energy. 2 Energy Market Agency, Warsaw. Poland. commitments of the European Union to reduce emission of greenhouse gases by 20 % in 2020 and further ambitious targets in this respect create hard challenges for Poland. It is therefore obvious that Poland should strive for changing the mix of primary energy of electricity generation for more secure and more ecological. Nuclear power becomes a universal remedy for resolving those problems. However, the change of the fuel mix and introduction of nuclear option in Poland is not an easy task. There are several limitation of the pace of this process based on availability of technological and financial resources as well as time necessary to implement such fundamental changes. In the forecast to 2030 in which all those limitations were taken into account the share of electricity production from nuclear power plants will reach at most 15,7 %(% 2). Natural gas 3% Wastes Fig. 1 Existing fuel mix of electricity generation in Poland (source: Energy Market Agency) Nuclear fuel 15.7% Lignite 6-6% Oil products 36.0% 1.5% Fig. 2 Fuel mix of electricity generation predicted for 2030 Soon after the governmental resolution on nuclear energy the Prime Minister nominated Government Commissioner for Nuclear Power to coordinate the creation of legal, regulatory and institutional framework necessary for the development of the nuclear power sector and the construction of nuclear power plants in Poland. The Government has also appointed the biggest State owned power company in Poland, PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna (Polish Energy Group), as a leading power utility for the preparation and implementation of the nuclear power program. PGE will be an investor of the first nuclear power plant in Poland. 2. Framework program of nuclear power development Together with the decision to go nuclear the government of Poland has adopted a framework program aimed at: - defining a feasible scope for nuclear power development under present and predicted conditions; - specifying the necessary activities and tasks to be fulfilled by participants of the program within a proposed time schedule; - estimating the costs of nuclear power development and indicating recommended sources of its financing, - achieving sufficient public acceptance of the program in economic, social and ecological aspects of nuclear energy. The Program is based on IAEA recommendations „Milestones In the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power” and other documents in this series. Legislation and other activities enabling the implementation and functioning of the nuclear power sector within this Program will follow IAEA principles and guidelines and will be based on the experience of other IAEA Member States. The Framework Program consists of four stages: I stage until 31.12.2010: preparation of the detailed program and its approval by the government; II stage for 2011 - 2013: site selection and conclusion of a contract for construction of the first NPP; III stage for 2014 - 2015: preparation of technical documentation and obtaining all required licenses and permits; IVstage for 2016 - 2020: construction and commissioning of the first nuclear unit. The Program is very ambitious but realistic. Poland will use know-how of IAEA and EU countries that operate and construct new nuclear power plants as well as experience of Polish companies that are involved in construction of Olkiluoto NPP in Finland and most probably will be hired to construct the new NPPs in the region. In Poland there exist also many internationally based companies, sufficiently prepared to build power stations, mostly coal and gas based, but their experience can be used extensively for construction of NPPs. Within the Framework Program different participants have their specific tasks. The governmental administration is to undertake, i. a., the following tasks: - adaptation of Polish legislation and regulations to the needs of nuclear industry, - fulfilling Poland’s international obligations related to the introduction of nuclear energy into the Polish power sector; - survey and selection of regions, suitable for of NPPs sites; - surveys and selection of sites suitable for low and medium radioactive waste storages and construction of low and medium radioactive waste depository; - elaboration of National Plan for High Radioactive Wastes and Spent Fuel Management; - launching a human resources acquisition and training program for entities involved in the Program; - information and education campaign among different authorities and groups of society; - strengthening R&D resources in the nuclear field; - creating favourable conditions for involvement of Polish industry into the Program; - launching R&D programs for investigation of uranium resources in Poland; - restructuring the National Atomic Energy Agency to fulfil the duty of nuclear regulator. The investor of the first NPP (PGE - Polish Energy Group) has, i. a., the following tasks in respect to the first NPP: - preparing all necessary prefeasibility studies; - establishing a consortium of main stakeholders for construction of the plant; - elaborating a feasibility study; - final site selection; - determining the way and sources of financing construction of the plant; - launching the bidding processes for selection of technology and construction suppliers; - preparing all necessary technical documentation (design) of the plant for selected site; - obtaining all required licenses and permits for construction and commissioning of the plant; - acquiring andtraining of the operation personnel; - selecting fuel suppliers and conclusion all contracts required; - supervising the construction and commissioning of the plant. 3. Main challenges Public acceptance Poland has a specific situation when undertaking the present program of nuclear energy development. This is because the previous experience in launching the nuclear option in Poland in 1980s has failed. The failure was caused, i. a., by obligatory implementation of the soviet technology which, after the Chernobyl accident, threatened the Polish society and also politicians, although NPP Zarnowiec, being that time under construction, had a different type reactor. Also the fall of the old political system and centrally planned economy made unable completion of the plant. Since that time the public opinion in Poland has been totally against nuclear energy until recently. The latest results of the pools show growing support to nuclear energy among Polish population (fig.3). In favour of the NPP Against □ Undecided construction □ the NPP construction XI 1987 XI 1989 VI 2006 VII 2008 II 2009 IX 2009 Fig.3 Results of the investigation of public opinion about nuclear power plants in Poland Unfortunately, the support is not complete as majority of interrogated people still is against construction of a NPP in vicinity of their houses (fig.4). It shows well known syndrome NYMBY (not in my back yard). In favour □ Against □ Undecided of the construction the construction VI2006 VII 2008 IX 2009 Fig.4 Results of investigation of people’s opinion in Poland concerning construction of a NPP in vicinity of their houses The public acceptance will depend very much on the scope of information provided in the mass media showing different aspects of energy supply, particularly the consequences of not going nuclear when the coal based energy becomes extremely costly because of its