Impact Assessment of Planned Policies and Measures
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Impact assessment of planned policies and measures Extract of Annex 2 to the draft of Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan for the years 2021-2030 Please note that this document is short version translated into English PROJECT – v. 3.1 from 04.01.2019 Extract - Impact assessment of planned policies and measures Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 4 ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES........................................................... 5 1. Effects of planned policies and measures, regarding the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions and their absorption .................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. General parameters and variables ........................................................................................... 6 1.1.1. GDP ..................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1.2. International import prices of fuels .................................................................................... 6 1.1.3. Prices of CO2 emission allowances in EU ETS system ........................................................ 7 1.1.4. Assumptions regarding technical and economic parameters of energy technologies ...... 7 1.2. Dimension „decarbonisation” .................................................................................................. 9 1.2.1. Emissions and absorption of greenhouse gases ................................................................. 9 1.2.1.1. Forecasts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GHG absorption .......................... 9 1.2.2. Renewables ...................................................................................................................... 13 1.2.2.1. Predictions of energy consumption from renewable sources .................................. 13 1.2.2.2. Comparison of forecasts for the consumption of renewable energy sources - WAM vs. WEM ..................................................................................................................... 14 1.3. Dimension „energy efficiency” ............................................................................................... 16 1.3.1. Primary and final energy consumption ............................................................................ 16 1.3.2. Final energy consumption by fuel .................................................................................... 19 1.3.3. Comparison of primary and final energy consumption forecasts - scenario of WAM vs. WEM .......................................................................................................................................... 20 1.4. Dimension „energy security” .................................................................................................. 21 1.4.1. Net imports by type of fuel .............................................................................................. 21 1.4.2. Electricity and heat production ........................................................................................ 23 1.4.3. Comparison of the demand for electricity and district heating – scenario WAM vs. WEM .......................................................................................................................................... 23 1.4.4. Gross electricity production by fuel ................................................................................. 24 1.4.5. Electricity generating capacity by source ......................................................................... 25 1.5. Dimension „internal energy market” ..................................................................................... 27 1.5.1. Electricity interconnectivity .............................................................................................. 27 1.5.2. Energy transmission infrastructure .................................................................................. 27 1.5.2.1. Electricity transmission infrastructure ...................................................................... 27 1.5.2.2. Infrastructure for gas transmission ........................................................................... 28 1.5.2.3. Electricity and gas markets, energy prices ................................................................ 29 2. Overview of investment needs ......................................................................................................... 31 2 Extract - Impact assessment of planned policies and measures 2.1. Current investment flows and assumed future investments in relation to planned policies and measures ......................................................................................................................... 31 3. Assessment of the impact of the planned policies and measures on regional cooperation and on other Member States ............................................................................................................................... 32 3.1. Impact on the energy system in neighboring countries and on other Member States in the region ...................................................................................................................................... 32 3.1.1. Power systems .................................................................................................................. 32 3.1.2. Gas systems ...................................................................................................................... 34 3.1.3. Impact on gas market ....................................................................................................... 35 3.1.4. Nuclear energy ................................................................................................................. 35 3.1.5. Capacity market ................................................................................................................ 36 3.2. Impact on regional cooperation ............................................................................................. 37 3.3. Next steps ............................................................................................................................... 38 3 Extract - Impact assessment of planned policies and measures Introduction This document presents an extract of the analytical annex to the draft of "National Plan for Energy and Climate for the years 2021-2030" (NECP) prepared by the Ministry of Energy of Poland. Full version is available in Polish. The study contains an assessment of the impact of policies and measures from NECP, which indicate how and with what effects the objectives in five dimensions of the Energy Union will be implemented. This document present a multi-aspect analysis of the impact of the implementation effects up to 2030, with the horizon up to 2040. This includes the comparison of so-called WEM scenario (with measures existing until the end of 2017) with so-called WAM scenario (with additional measures). The content of this part of the report and the scope of the information presented therein are in accordance with the guidelines contained in Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the management of the Energy Union and Climate Action, amending Directive 94/22 / EC, Directive 98/70 / EC, Directive 2009/31 / EC, Regulation (EC) No. 663/2009, Regulation (EC) No. 715/2009, Directive 2009/73 / EC, Council Directive 2009/119 / EC, Directive 2010/31 / EU, Directive 2012/27 / EU, Directive 2013/30 / EU and Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013. 4 Extract - Impact assessment of planned policies and measures ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES 1. Effects of planned policies and measures, regarding the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions and their absorption This document presents the results of analytical and forecasting work aimed at describing the future state of fuel and energy sector determined by economic, environmental and resource constraints, taking into account the planned policies and measures. The analysis covers all sectors of the national economy as well as current and prospective energy carriers throughout the entire supply chain. Relevant comparisons of forecast results for the two scenarios (WEM and WAM) were prepared. The purpose of these comparisons was to estimate the impact of parameters distinguishing these scenarios and to capture mutual interactions between existing and planned policies and measures within the analyzed five main dimensions of the Energy Union. The calculation methods are based on widely used in the world methods for the preparation of sectoral analysis and forecasts (model CGE PL, computable general equilibrium), taking into account the conditions of economic development and enabling preparation of scenarios and analysis in following areas: • effects of changes in the energy sector on the country's economy, • changes in the structure of electricity generation under the influence of changes in internal/external factors and regulations (global trends in energy, international fuel prices, prices of carbon dioxide emission allowances in the EU trade system, changes in technology costs, macroeconomic indicators, the cost of raising capital for investments), • share of energy from