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GIPE-011123-Contents.Pdf (1.391Mb) THE PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT The .Riiyal I ...tiIIute oj Intemalional Affairs i8 _ ..""jftcial tJnrl """.po!ilicaZ body,Joon.dtd ... 1920 to .....",..,.ag. tJnrl Jat>iZital. Ike 8cientific 8ttu% oj intemalionaZ qu<8t1of18. The 11l81i1ut., ... BUCh, i8 precluded by;u rvlu from upruring an opinion 011 any CUlpect oJ...,.,.• ....eionaZ "ffaVr8; opinionB upru.ed ... 1MB book or.. /hereJor., pur'11I indWiduoZ. THE PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL • INVESTMENT . A Report by a Study Group of Members of the Royal Institute of International Mairs OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS LONDON NEW YORK TORONTO 1 __ -urIM .....,.;_ ~IM R'¥IlI"-­ ~I-.. ..... -'~ 1937 ODORD UNIVERSITY PRBSS AMBN ROUBH, B.C. 4 London Bdlnbmgb Glalgow New York 'l'OlOIlto Melbourne Capetown Bomb., Calcutta Madru HUIIPHREY IIILII'ORD PVBLIBBBB W nm VIn'D8lfl' XbSZ;-. \.N3t &7 /1 ( 2.. J FOREWORD TIm Council of the Royal Institute of International Affairs believe that this a.ddition to the series of Study Group Reports will fill an important gap in the literature of international economics. It is an attempt, in the first ple.ce, to e.na.lyse objectively the conditions under which long-term oapital may move between countries and to consider oe.refully the speoie.l fe.otors in the world economy of to-day which tend to limit the extent to which such movements e.re possible or desirable. Secondly, the book contains a careful study of the post­ war history of international investments which brings together facts and figures whioh e.re ine.ocessible to most students and business men. The Council is indebted to the following group of members of the Institute for the preparation of the Report: Mr. H. D. Henderson (Ohainnan). Mr. C. :to C. Bose.nquet. Mr. A. T. K. Grant. Mr. O. L. Lawrence. Mr. C. G. Vickers, V.C. In e.ocorde.nce with the usual pre.otice in the prepe.re.tion of Study Group publioe.tions, the Report we.s submitted, in d.ra.ft form, to a number of authorities in Great Britain and other oountries. These experts were invited to oomment llpon it and to criticize it from their various points of view, on the understanding that they would, by so doing, incur no responsibility for the final oontents of the book, and the Study Group reserved to itself the right to e.ocept or reject any proposed amendments. In this way, and by direct oonversation, much valuable help and criticism we.s received from a number of authorities, including the following: Professor J. W. Angell. Mr. A. Loveday. Dr. Herbert Feis. Mr. F. H. N'IXon, C.B. Professor N. F. He.ll. Professor J. F. Parkinson. Mr. H. V. Hodson. M. leonard Rist. Mr. Carl Iversen. Dr. Philippe Sohwob. Mr. J. M. Keynes, C.B. Mr. D. A. Skelton. Mr. Thomas W. Lamont. Prof_ Eugene Staley. Professor Henry Laufenburger. The Council wish to express their warm. appreciation of the generosity of these authorities in thus placing their knowledge and experience at the disposal of the Group. They desire, further, vi FOREWORD especially to record their gratitude to Mr. R. K. C. Maguire, who has freely given his advice and assistance at every stage in the prepara­ tion of the book. FinaJIy, both the Council and the members of the Group have to express their high appreciation "of the services of Mr. A. W. Snelling and Mr. J. F. Cahan, who have acted as Group Secretaries, and who have drafted the greater part of the Report. It should be understood by readers of this Report that the members who are responsible for its preparation, &lthough they do not neces­ sarily subscribe as individu&ls to every statement in the book, put it forward as an expression of their gener&l views on the subject and as a useful contributi,.on to the study ofinternation&1 affairs. ASTOR, CHATHAM HOUSH, Ohatrman o/IM CouMil. 10 ST. JAHB/l'S SQUAD, LONDON, S.W.l. 111 March, 1937. BIBLIOGRAPHICAL NOTE DullING the preparation of this Report, the dra.fters consulted over .. hundred books and an equally large nnmber of newspapers and periodioeJs. To give .. oomplete list of theee without some indication of their importance would, we feel, be useless, and to write a short note about each would oocupy too much valuable Bpaoe. We have therefore compromieed. All Btetistioel and faotua.! sources and the most important works oonsulted in the writing of each eeotion of the book have been cited in full in foot­ notes. The reader who wiahee further information on .. certain subject, therefore, has only to turn to the relevant seotion in the book and he will find there references to the books and papers which the drafters have found moat helpful. References to books include the name of the publisher as well as the pi&ce and date oC publication, 8() that they may be obtained with the le&at possible trouble. CONTENTS PART I I. INTRODUCTION. • 3 International in_t and intemational tmde"in the 19th oentury-aangee ........ by the __Poot- ..... investments in Euro_The cIeproosion-Funda­ III8Iltaidiff"""""",betweoDtheintematiowinveatmantsofthel9thoonturyand _ of the poat...... period. II. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN THE POST.WAR PERIOD. 18 The _ ....ut05-The ohler debtor &It!llll-The diff__ invest. ment in Europe and inveatmant in oountriee produoiDg primary produote for upon-The inaidonoe of defaults duriDa: the depreoeioD. m. THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT • 28 The agrioultur&l depNUion-The tnnd of populetion in Europe end North AInerio.-lmprovam8llta in 88rioultural teohnique-Eoonomio natiogaljun-­ Oooooquent dilIIoultiee in the way of intematiow in_to IV. TYPES OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS • 40 N __ in the oapitalllllU'kete of....utor ooan_'Direct' in__ InotitutioDa! in___ Medium·term upon....ute. V. THE BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS • 63 De8nition-The 'gold _'-Movements of Ihort-term oepitel-Movements of long.term oapitel-The _ ofpeyments of G.... t Britein-The deoline in the British upon .Ul"J1'ua on aurrant acooun&-The belenoe of peyment. of the UDited SIa__ 'AmerioI muat _'-The problema of bonowiDg oountrieo. VI. EXCHANGE STABILlTY AND INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT 89 The runotiono of oontnll blnb.-~ liability _ 1931-~ of the pawa' pooition. VII. THE STATE AND INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT • '8 0t\I0iaI __ ofth. London capital ~_ in the UDited Slatee end ~trol in bonowiDg ooun_: loan .........a.-The ~ c...cJits Guanmtee Dep_&-Btabilieetion aDd _ Joan. Speoi&I priw.-Bi_ fID ooIoniaI boIww&c State in_tion tor the ooIIecIaon of pri""te debte. vm. CONCLUSION • • • 101 The middle ~;;c;o:.;;;--l tor ezporIe of food.produaing ooan_ is no loapo­ Dton·.jn....-BeJe of iDtematioaal p&ymeate--New ohan"" for intematioDal in..... tmen-.-Tbe rOle of the Iltat6-Tbe djmjniebeci adv.ll'" of iDtmnetjonel 8p"i.H_tjor PART II IX. PRE-WAR INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT liS _ Bri~'1'!Ie UDited Batee. X. THE CREDlTORB-ORBAT BRITAIN • • I" The Britiah capital_ einea the __The __ ofpe~_The __ Ce!-'lcliIItribu&ioa.oftbeiDU 2 Aftt-Tbe=h,mcla.. oftbeiD, Dt--'l'be from .....' H t-I)mcl..aoo,. XL THE CREDlTOltS-THE UNITED STATES • 1M The Au " D capital ~'1'!Ie __ vi: ~_The ~ c diItributioa of the iDe $ H .....Tba cb rrtw of abe iDe t..-- A .... ID._ Gbooa I. CONTENTS XII. THE CREDITORS-FRANCE • 199 The balance of paymen_French holdinga of ooIonia\ and foreign _"­ Government influence OD the direction of investment. xm. TilE DEBTORS • 221 The volume of international indebtMn,! The oharacter of the investment= Govemment debt. I'8iIwaya-Investmenta in Europe: The League 1.0 ...... Ger· many, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Balkans, other OOUDtries-Inveatmenta in the British Empire: Canada, Newf'ound1a.nd, Australie and New Zealand, India, South Africa-Inveetmenta in the Far East: China and Manchuria, Japan-Inveetmenta in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, CbiIe, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Cub_Inveetmenta in ooIoniea-Conclusion. XIV. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS IN DEPRESSION. • 281 Thedeclincinnewinvestmentc-Thepl'Oblomsofdebtor&-Threadebtorcountri.. : Germany, Austra.Iia, Canad.-The Loague Loan&-The incidence and .nent o( defaultc-AttcJDpta to reduoe the burdan of indebtednsoo-The OUtooms of the depreoaion. APPENDIXES L SOME NOTES ON THE SOURCES AND AOCURAcY OF STATISTICS OF THE BRITISH BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYllENTS. 338 n. THE TERMS OF INVESTMENT CONTRACTS 147 . m. BRlTlSH OVERSEAS INVESTMENT IN 1928 AND ITS SUBSE· QUENT HISTORY 868 INDEX 300 APPENDIXES A.PPENDIX I SOME NOTES ON THE SOURCES AND ACCURACY OF STATISTICS OF THE BRITISH BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS WID have given in Chapter Xl some estimates of the baJa.nce of paymente of Great Britain in reoent years ; these are reproduced, hi. part, on the next page. The sources from whioh the-statistics have been .obtained differ widely in accuraoy and the following notes are intended to give some idea of the methods used, and the probable oorrectness of the fina.l result. • Current A.ccount'. All the figures under this head are taken from the estimates of the Board of Trade without alteration.· A baJa.nce of paymente on current aooount generally refers to the cash received into or remitted out of the oountry in respeot of items whioh imply recurrent inoome or expenditUJe. In some oases, however, balances are oompiled whioh include the whole of the sums due under these headings, even though, in some instances, cash payment may be deferred, or in partial or complete default. This method of compiling a ba.la.nce of •amounte due' rather than • actually received' gives a better pioture of a oountry's position aa a debtor or creditor on ourrent acoount. For example, when a country is in oomplete default on ite interest paymente because of exchange transfer diffioulties, a ba.la.noe of paymente oompiled on a pure cash basis would give little indication of the oountry's financial position via·d-via the rest of the world unless it were supplemented by a statement whioh included sums due aa well aa those actually remitted.
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