The Amsterdam Rent Index: the Housing Market and the Economy, 1550–1850 ⇑ Piet Eichholtz A, , Stefan Straetmans A, Marcel Theebe B a Maastricht University, P.O
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Journal of Housing Economics 21 (2012) 269–282 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Housing Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhec The Amsterdam rent index: The housing market and the economy, 1550–1850 ⇑ Piet Eichholtz a, , Stefan Straetmans a, Marcel Theebe b a Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands b University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Business School, Plantage Muidergracht 12, 1012TV Amsterdam, The Netherlands article info abstract Article history: The paper investigates the long run historic development of the Amsterdam rental housing Received 23 December 2011 market (1550–1850). Using rent data on a large cross section of residential properties in Available online 16 September 2012 Amsterdam we are able to develop an annual constant-quality rent index for the entire time period. Whereas nominal rents nearly tripled over the considered sample period, JEL classification: average Amsterdam house rents, in real terms, had approximately the same level in N1 1850 as they exhibited in 1550. Otherwise stated, nominal rents and goods prices rose N3 at the same pace. Over these 301 years, the real index moves between a minimum level N6 of 45.6 and a maximum of 162.4. As concerns the relation between the housing market N9 R1 and the real economy, we find empirical evidence that fluctuations in rents and fluctua- tions in proxies of business cycle activity comove, both in nominal and in real terms. Keywords: Ó 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Rent index Amsterdam housing market Long term 1. Introduction Many studies on housing rents and prices are available for the post-1945 era. However, the literature on the The Great Recession of 2008/09 has illustrated the behavior of housing markets against the background of importance of housing markets for the macro-economy. long-term economic developments is surprisingly scant. This is not surprising, as housing is among the largest This lack of historical perspective on determinants and stores of value our societies have: the current value of res- comovements of housing prices and rents is all the more idential real estate in the US and Europe exceeds total problematic given the importance of housing costs for stock market capitalization (Case, 2000). Recent experi- households and of house prices for the economy. ence shows that housing market slumps can cause signifi- Studying the behavior of residential property prices and cant drops in financial portfolio values that can in turn rents over longer periods is of potential importance for erode overall domestic consumption and investment, and many reasons. First, investment decisions in housing have can do even more harm by contaminating the banking sec- to be made with a long horizon so long-run time series are tor via the mortgage markets. needed to study the optimal asset mix in strategic asset allocations (Campbell and Cocco, 2005). Also, longer time series enable one to disentangle possible long term relations between the housing market, the business cycle ⇑ Corresponding author. Address: Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, and demographic factors. Population dynamics in particu- 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. Fax: +31 43 3884875. lar are typically varying slowly, which implies that one E-mail addresses: [email protected] (P. Eichholtz), needs longer series if one wants to uncover potential rela- [email protected] (S. Straetmans), m.a.j.theebe@ uva.nl (M. Theebe). tions. Finally, housing prices after the Second World War 1051-1377/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2012.09.001 270 P. Eichholtz et al. / Journal of Housing Economics 21 (2012) 269–282 were characterized by strong growth trends in most indus- the rise and decline of one of the most important trading trialized nations, both in nominal and in real terms. How- economies in the early modern period. This also enables ever, this may not necessarily be representative for us to judge to what extent long-term housing rent dynam- housing markets in the more distant past, in non-industri- ics go hand in hand with the long-term economic situation. alized economies, and in the future. Otherwise stated, The constructed rent index is based on a data sample since most empirical studies of property performance fo- collected by Lesger (1986) of 1055 dwellings owned by cus only on the post-war era, they are likely to produce a orphanages, hospitals, and poor-relief boards. In all, the biased – and potentially overoptimistic – picture of real es- rent data involve 48,571 annual rental cash flows, of which tate investment performance. 7670 were ‘marked to market’: i.e. cash flows of new rental To date, the empirical literature on long term housing contracts. To build a constant-quality market rental index market behavior remains rather limited. For some conti- on the basis of these data, we implement repeated-mea- nental European cities, including Amsterdam, Ghent, and sures regression, an oft-used technique for creating indices Brussels, historians have collected rental data, and have of real estate values that has not been employed to create a produced indices on the basis of these. Lesger (1986) has rent index before. done a study of historic Dutch housing rents, while van Anticipating on our results, the resulting index, in nom- Ryssel (1967) has looked at Ghent, and Van den Eeckhout inal terms, rises from 100 in 1550 to 689.5 in 1850, which and Scholliers (1979) have studied Brussels. The indices is equivalent to a 0.64 annual average market rent growth. produced in these studies each use all available rental cash Corrected for inflation, however, the index value never gets flows, and thus reflect the rent paid by the average tenant below 45.6 or above 162.4, and has a value of 99.3 in 1850. at any time, but they do not reflect time varying demand Otherwise stated, real market rents seem remarkably sta- and supply conditions in the housing market. For that pur- ble over the long run, which implies that goods prices pose, it is better to look at the rent formation when new and nominal rents evolved in similar fashion over time. rent contracts are agreed upon. That result corroborates with the main finding from Eich- For England, studies by Clark (2002) and Feinstein holtz’ Herengracht index. (1988a,b) resulted in constant-quality rent indices that span Despite this long-term stability, the index is quite vola- the period between 1550 and 1909. However, these rent tile in the short and medium term, and the question re- indices are only available on a five-year frequency. As far mains what drives fluctuations in nominal and real rents. as we know, long-run constant-quality indices of market We establish that most fluctuations in nominal and real rents have not been constructed on an annual frequency. rents can be related to the evolution in the real economy. For the United States, Margo (1996) has constructed a More specifically, using different business cycle proxies, hedonic market rent index for New York for the period our quantitative analysis reveals that the nominal and real 1830 through 1860, on the basis of asking rents derived rent fluctuations are related to both domestic and interna- from newspaper advertisements. He showed that rents tional transmission channels (import and export relations) varied with housing quality and location, and that the rel- of the historical business cycle. The international transmis- ative price of housing went up during the sample period. sion channel illustrates once more the export-oriented As for house prices, Eichholtz (1997) has estimated a character of the Amsterdam economy, especially when biennial constant-quality repeat sales index of Amsterdam the Republic was at its height during the Golden Age. house prices for the period from 1628 to 1973 on the basis The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The of transaction prices of houses on the Herengracht, one of second section contains a description of the rental data. the main canals in Amsterdam. In real terms, his The next section provides a description and motivation Herengracht index did not rise very much over the for the repeated-measures regression method towards 345 years it covered: starting at 100 in 1628, it reached estimating the rent index. We also investigate whether 218.7 in 1973. This result suggests that house prices in real property heterogeneity requires model adjustments or terms do not necessarily increase in the very long run. This separate rent index series for different housing types. In result is in line with evidence from Shiller (2008), whose the fourth section we present the time series dynamics of index for United States real house prices has remained the derived market rent index. We distinguish between rather stationary since 1890, staying close to 100 for most the nominal and real index series and discuss its evolve- of its history, only to shoot up to levels close to 200 during ment over time in the light of the economic and demo- the years of the great housing boom between 1997 and graphic history of Amsterdam. The presence of 2006. Since then, it has lost most of that growth in value. relationships between rent series and some available prox- This paper constructs a constant-quality housing rent ies of the business cycle (e.g. international trade activity, index for Amsterdam, a city that began its ascent to be- construction activity, national income proxies) is investi- come the global hub in trading and manufacturing in the gated in the fifth section. A short summary and some sug- mid sixteenth century, reaching that position in the early gestions for further research are included in the final seventeenth century.