Policy Switching by Left Populist Presidents in Latin America: the Influence of Civil Society
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Policy Switching by Left Populist Presidents in Latin America: The Influence of Civil Society Christopher O’Connell BCL, LLB, MA Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) School of Law and Government Dublin City University Supervisor: Professor Robert Elgie May 2019 Declaration I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) is entirely my own work, and that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge breach any law of copyright, and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed: Candidate ID No: 57211546 Date: ii Acknowledgements This thesis would not have happened without the kindness and support of more people than there is room here to mention. It has been a humbling yet highly rewarding experience, and I hope that the contents reflect something of that process. Firstly, I am indebted to all of those who gave so generously of their time and experiences as participants in this research, and without whom this work would not have been possible. I am particularly indebted to those wonderful friends and colleagues who were kind enough to help me during my periods of field research: Rocio Verastegui, Richard Intriago, Steven Wille, Lynda Sullivan, Thomas McDonagh, Dr Cathal Doyle, Paola Mora, Victor Flores, and everyone at the Latin America Solidarity Centre (LASC). Mil gracias. In Dublin City University, my supervisor, Professor Robert Elgie, was a constant source of guidance and support, while providing the kind of rigorous examination that served to improve both the quality of my work and my professional development. I will be forever grateful. I would also like to acknowledge the support provided by the Heads of the School of Law and Government, Professor Iain McMenamin and Professor Gary Murphy. Others who were kind of enough to share their time and thoughts include: Dr David Doyle, Dr Gemma McNulty, Dr Barry Cannon, and Professor Eduardo Silva. I was lucky enough to encounter wonderful colleagues in the School of Law and Government, many of whom have since become firm friends. In particular I would like to thank Dr Clare O’Grady- Walshe, Dr Karl Murphy, Dr Elliott Jordan-Doak, Dr Orla Lehane and Dr Mohsen Moheimany. We got there in the end. Finally, but most importantly, I would like to thank my wife and best friend, Fionnuala Griffin, and our two wonderful daughters, Clara and Rebecca. Without your love, support and laughter, I would never have been able to do this. I would also like to thank my mother Laraine, and sisters Sinead and Sally for all their support. This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my father, Dr John D. O’Connell. iii Table of Contents List of Abbreviations……………………………..……………………………………………...vii Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………...……..xiii Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..……xiv Chapter 1: Literature Review 1.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………..…..1 1.2 The New Left in Latin America………..……………………………………………...1 1.3 Support for Left Populists………………………………..……………………………5 1.4 Left Populism in Power………………………………………………………...……10 1.5 Switching and Left Populism……………………………………………………..….14 1.6 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………….…..17 Chapter 2: Explanations for Switching 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………….…….19 2.2 Identifying Left Populist Switching……………………………………………….…19 2.3 Explaining Left Populist Switching……………………………………………….…25 2.4 Theoretical Framework……………………………………………………………....31 2.5 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………..…..39 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….….40 3.2 Research Design………………………………………………………………….…..40 3.3 Methodology………………………………………………………………………....50 3.4 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………..……..55 Chapter 4: Ecuador – The Presidency of Lucio Gutiérrez 4.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….….56 4.2 Overview: The Gutiérrez Candidacy………………………………………………....57 4.3 Social Policy……………………………………………………………………….....61 Education Reform……………………………………………………………………....62 Healthcare Reform…………………………………………………………………..…64 Housing and Social Welfare……………………………………………………………66 4.4 Economic Policy……………………………………………………………………...68 Austerity Package………………………………………………………………………69 Banking and Tax Reform………………………………………………………………70 Privatisation………………………………………………………………………….…71 Debt Service……………………………………………………………………………73 The Role of the State………………………………………………………………...…76 iv 4.5 Resource Extraction Policy…………………………………………………………..77 Oil Concessions……………………………………………………………………...…79 The OCP Pipeline………………………………………………………………………81 The Reform of Petroecuador………………………………………………………..….82 4.6 Politico-Institutional Reform………………………………………………………....84 The Consociational Phase…………………………………………………………...…85 The Traditional Phase…………………………………………………………………..87 The Authoritarian Phase………………………………………………………………..89 4.7 Discussion…………………………………………………………………………....94 4.8 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………..…..95 Chapter 5: Ecuador – Rafael Correa and Policy Switching 5.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….….96 5.2 Overview: The Correa Candidacy………………………………………………..…..97 5.3 A Non-Switch: The Constituent Assembly…………………………………………103 An Uneasy Alliance…………………………………………………………...………103 Mobilising for ‘Full Powers’………………………………………………….………105 Institutions in Conflict………………………………………………………………...107 Correa Ascendant……………………………………………………………..………110 A Promise Honoured: The Constituent Assembly……………………………………113 5.4 A Switch: Food Sovereignty Policy…………………………………………….…..115 An Uneven Commitment………………………………………………………….…..116 A Political Opportunity……………………………………………………………….121 Switching Foreshadowed? The Agrarian Mandate…………………………………...125 Food Sovereignty: Enabled or Tamed?.........................................................................127 The Unfulfilled Promise of Land Reform………………………………….…………130 A Switch Consolidated: Agorindustry Over Food Sovereignty………………………132 5.5 Discussion………………………………………………………………………..…136 5.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………..…138 Chapter 6: Peru – Ollanta Humala and the Conga Mines Conflict 6.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………....139 6.2 Overview: The Humala Candidacy…………………………………………….…...139 6.3 Humala in Power: Mining Policies…………………………………………….…...148 The Prior Consultation Law…………………………………………………………..150 The Windfall Tax………………………………………………………………….….151 6.4 The Conga Mines Conflict……………………………………………………….…153 Water or Gold…………………………………………………………………………154 Water and Gold?........................................................................................................... 159 v Gold Over Water…………………………………………………………………...…162 A Switch Confirmed: Violent Repression…………………………….………………167 Humala’s Watershed……………………………………………………………….…170 6.5 Discussion………………………………………………………………………..…172 6.6 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..………174 Chapter 7: Bolivia – Evo Morales and the TIPNIS Conflict 7.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………....175 7.2 Overview: The Morales Candidacy………………………………………………....176 7.3 Morales in Power: Pressure and Promises…………………………………….……181 ‘Nationalising’ Hydrocarbons……………………………………………………...…183 Land Reform…………………………………………………………………..………185 The Constituent Assembly……………………………………………………………186 7.4 The TIPNIS Road Conflict……………………………………………………..…...189 The “Dream” of a Road…………………………………………………………….....191 Pressurising ‘Their’ President: The XIII March………………………………………194 Blockades, Repression and a ‘Victory’…………………………………………….…199 Morales’ Response: Intangibility and the Counter-march……………………………205 Divided They Fell: The IX March……………………………………………….……207 A Switch Consolidated: The False Promise of Consultation…………………………211 7.5 Discussion………………………………………………………………………..…217 7.6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………….…….…218 Conclusion: Left Populist Switching and Civil Society in Latin America………………………..….220 The Findings………………………………………………………………………..…...222 Implications for the Literature on Switching, Left Populists and Social Movements….225 Future Research……………………………………………………………………..…..230 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………….…233 Appendix: List of Interviewees…………………………………………………………..…….269 vi List of Abbreviations AAFP Asociación de Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones Association of Pension Fund Administrators ABC Administradora Boliviana de Carreteras Bolivian Roads Administrator AFP Agence France-Presse AGD Agencia de Garantía de Depósitos Deposit Guarantee Agency AIDESEP Asociación Interétnica de Desarrollo de la Selva Peruana Interethnic Association for the Development of the Peruvian Rainforest ANSA Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata AP Associated Press APDHB Asamblea Permanente de Derechos Humanos de Bolivia Bolivian Permanent Assembly on Human Rights BNDES Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y Social National Bank for Economic and Social Development CAAP Centro Andino de Acción Popular Andean Centre for Popular Action CAO Cámara Agropecuaria del Oriente Eastern Agricultural Chamber CCCC Comisión de Control Cívico de la Corrupción Civic Corruption Control Commission CEPB Confederación de Empresarios Privados de Bolivia Bolivian Confederation of Private Entrepreneurs CGTP Confederación General de Trabajadores del Perú Central General Workers’ Union CIDOB Confederación de Pueblos Indígenas de Bolivia Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Bolivia CLACSO Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales