Risk Identification in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study
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sustainability Article Risk Identification in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study Seyed Masoud Sajjadian Architecture and Design, Southampton Solent University, East Park Terrace SO14 0YN, UK; [email protected] Received: 16 November 2017; Accepted: 18 January 2018; Published: 19 January 2018 Abstract: The likely increasing temperature predicted by UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) underlines the risk of overheating and potential increase in cooling loads in most of UK dwellings. This could also increase the possibility of failure in building performance evaluation methods and add even more uncertainty to the decision-making process in a low-carbon building design process. This paper uses a 55-unit residential unit project in Cardiff, UK as a case study to evaluate the potential of thermal simulations to identify risk in the early design stage. Overheating, increase in energy loads, carbon emissions, and thermal bridges are considered as potential risks in this study. DesignBuilder (DesignBuilder Software Ltd., Stroud, UK) was the dynamic thermal simulation software used in this research. Simulations compare results in the present, 2050, and 2080 time slices and quantifies the overall cooling and heating loads required to keep the operative temperature within the comfort zone. Overall carbon emissions are also calculated and a considerable reduction in the future is predicted. Further analysis was taken by THERM (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA) and Psi THERM (Passivate, London, UK) to evaluate the thermal bridge risk in most common junctions of the case study and the results reveal the potential of thermal assessment methods to improve design details before the start of construction stage. Keywords: heating and cooling loads; carbon emissions; thermal bridge simulations 1. Introduction The UK government had, until recently, set an ambitious target of new dwellings to meet zero carbon requirements by 2016. The plans included encouraging ‘Modern Methods of Construction’ (MMC) and developing building standards [1]. The building envelope is, therefore, expected to play a significant role in achieving these high-performance standards. Furthermore, the government has also set an ambitious target of reducing carbon emissions by 50% in the built environment by 2025 [2]. ‘Fabric first’ is an approach taken in order to achieve the target which is on the basis of increased and improved insulation and reduced thermal losses by removing thermal bridging and increasing air tightness [3,4]. However, the recent usage of MMC with high levels of insulation in the UK has raised an issue regarding potential overheating risk [5]. Apparently, this could become more severe as recent predictions show a considerable shift in temperature by 2080 [6]. Sajjadian [7] revealed the significance of alleviating such risk by modern and traditional passive design features, and also highlighted the fact that thermally-lightweight homes might experience levels of discomfort due to higher room temperatures. This research emphasised that brick and block construction systems with a higher level of thermal mass may result in less energy consumption over their lifetime in comparison with lightweight construction systems, such as timber frame and steel frame. Orme et al. [8] presented a study which also clarified that in a lightweight, well-insulated house an outdoor air temperature of 29 ◦C may cause overheating to more than 39 ◦C inside the building. However, Andric et al. [9] evaluated the long-term impact of climate change on the heating demand in the future using a six-storey Sustainability 2018, 10, 262; doi:10.3390/su10010262 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 2 of 12 multi-apartmentSustainability 2018, detached10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 building in four different European cities and demonstrated a considerable2 of 12 reduction in the heating demand in low, medium, and high emission scenarios of climate change. a six-storey multi-apartment detached building in four different European cities and demonstrated a Furtherconsiderable techniques reduction to address in the the heating overheating demand issue in low, conducted medium, by and Three high Regions emission Climate scenarios Change of Groupclimate [10 change.] in London, Further East techniques and South to Eastaddress of England the overheating and they issue reported conducted improved by Three air movement, Regions ventilation,Climate Change solar control, Group [10] cooler in London, floors, and East increased and South façade East of reflectivity England and were they efficient reported in improved decreasing overheatingair movement, hours. ventilation, Gaterell, solar et al. control, [11] conducted cooler floors, a similar and increased study in Southeastfaçade reflectivity England were on aefficient detached housein decreasing and found overheating double glazing hours. and Gaterell, loft insulation et al. [11] asconducted effective a solutions. similar study In another in Southeast study England by Hulme et al.on [a12 detached] reducing house air leakage,and found additional double glazing insulation, and loft and insulation enhancing as solareffective gain solutions. were found In another to cause anstudy increase by Hulme in discomfort et al. [12] hoursreducing in summerair leakage, in ad differentditional locationsinsulation, in and the enhancing UK, and solar Department gain were for Communitiesfound to cause and an Local increase Government in discomfort (DCLG) hours [13 in] reportedsummer in that, different in any locations climate in change the UK, scenario, and heatingDepartment loads for remain Communiti prominentes and untilLocal 2080.Government (DCLG) [13] reported that, in any climate change scenario, heating loads remain prominent until 2080. 2. Problem Statement 2. Problem Statement Residential buildings are contributing to a substantial proportion of the UK’s CO2 emissions as a consequenceResidential ofbuildings consuming are contributing energy for electricalto a substantial appliances, proportion heating, of the lighting, UK’s CO and2 emissions cooking as [14 ]. A warmera consequence future of climate consuming is expected energy to for change electrical the appliances, comfort conditions heating, andlighting, the patternsand cooking of energy [14]. A use in existingwarmer UKfuture home climate stock. is Thisexpected is why to change an emerging the comfort policy conditions on climate and change the adaptationpatterns of energy is focused use on addressingin existing overheating UK home stock. in existing This is and why new an housing.emerging Climate policy on change climate underlines change adaptation a reason for is focused long-term thinkingon addressing in the design overheating process in andexisting it is and important new housing. to address Climate the possiblechange underlines impacts of a climatereason for change long- on theterm new thinking residential in the buildings. design process Figure 1and shows it is likelyimportant changes to address in the meanthe possible annual impacts temperature of climate in the change on the new residential buildings. Figure 1 shows likely changes in the mean annual UK by 2080 in different scenarios. temperature in the UK by 2080 in different scenarios. Figure 1. Mean annual temperature increase in 2020, 2050, and 2080; 90% probability level, unlikely Figure 1. Mean annual temperature increase in 2020, 2050, and 2080; 90% probability level, unlikely to to be less than the degrees shown on the maps [15]. be less than the degrees shown on the maps [15]. SustainabilitySustainability2018 2018, 10, ,10 262, 262 10.3390/su10010262 3 of3 12of 12 Figure 1 demonstrates that expected temperature increase would be considerable for many cities,Figure especially1 demonstrates in South that Wales expected in the temperature UK by 2080 increase even if would the low be considerableemission scenario for many takes cities, place. especiallyTherefore, in Southa focus Wales on future in the building UK by 2080 performanc even if thee should low emission be active scenario now. takesA large place. number Therefore, of UK a focusdwellings on future have building no mechanical performance cooling should systems be active [13]. now. Consequently, A large number temperature of UK dwellings increases have will noincrease mechanical occupants’ cooling vulnerability systems [13]. to Consequently, overheating [16]. temperature Furthermore, increases there willis a increasepotential occupants’ risk of heat vulnerabilityloss through to overheatingpoor design [16 detailing,]. Furthermore, which there is iswidel a potentialy neglected. risk of heatThis lossis throughalso considered poor design as a detailing,considerable which risk is widelyaffecting neglected. building Thisperformance is also considered during operation as a considerable that can be risk rectified affecting by buildingsimplified performancethermal modelling. during operation that can be rectified by simplified thermal modelling. 3.3. Methodology Methodology ThisThis paper paper presents presents a studya study on on a a multi-story multi-story residential residential building building in in South South Wales,Wales, UKUK thatthat usesuses a a lightweightlightweight steelsteel frameframe as as a a structural structural system. system. Figure Figure2 shows2 shows the the location location of of the the building building in in the the city city ofof Cardiff, Cardiff, UK. UK. FigureFigure 2. Building2. Building