Risk Identification in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study

sustainability

Article Risk Identiﬁcation in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study

Seyed Masoud Sajjadian

Architecture and Design, Southampton Solent University, East Park Terrace SO14 0YN, UK; [email protected]

Received: 16 November 2017; Accepted: 18 January 2018; Published: 19 January 2018

Abstract: The likely increasing temperature predicted by UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) underlines the risk of overheating and potential increase in cooling loads in most of UK dwellings. This could also increase the possibility of failure in building performance evaluation methods and add even more uncertainty to the decision-making process in a low-carbon building design process. This paper uses a 55-unit residential unit project in Cardiff, UK as a case study to evaluate the potential of thermal simulations to identify risk in the early design stage. Overheating, increase in energy loads, carbon emissions, and thermal bridges are considered as potential risks in this study. DesignBuilder (DesignBuilder Software Ltd., Stroud, UK) was the dynamic thermal simulation software used in this research. Simulations compare results in the present, 2050, and 2080 time slices and quantiﬁes the overall cooling and heating loads required to keep the operative temperature within the comfort zone. Overall carbon emissions are also calculated and a considerable reduction in the future is predicted. Further analysis was taken by THERM (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA) and Psi THERM (Passivate, London, UK) to evaluate the thermal bridge risk in most common junctions of the case study and the results reveal the potential of thermal assessment methods to improve design details before the start of construction stage.

Keywords: heating and cooling loads; carbon emissions; thermal bridge simulations

1. Introduction The UK government had, until recently, set an ambitious target of new dwellings to meet zero carbon requirements by 2016. The plans included encouraging ‘Modern Methods of Construction’ (MMC) and developing building standards [1]. The building envelope is, therefore, expected to play a significant role in achieving these high-performance standards. Furthermore, the government has also set an ambitious target of reducing carbon emissions by 50% in the built environment by 2025 [2]. ‘Fabric first’ is an approach taken in order to achieve the target which is on the basis of increased and improved insulation and reduced thermal losses by removing thermal bridging and increasing air tightness [3,4]. However, the recent usage of MMC with high levels of insulation in the UK has raised an issue regarding potential overheating risk [5]. Apparently, this could become more severe as recent predictions show a considerable shift in temperature by 2080 [6]. Sajjadian [7] revealed the significance of alleviating such risk by modern and traditional passive design features, and also highlighted the fact that thermally-lightweight homes might experience levels of discomfort due to higher room temperatures. This research emphasised that brick and block construction systems with a higher level of thermal mass may result in less energy consumption over their lifetime in comparison with lightweight construction systems, such as timber frame and steel frame. Orme et al. [8] presented a study which also clarified that in a lightweight, well-insulated house an outdoor air temperature of 29 ◦C may cause overheating to more than 39 ◦C inside the building. However, Andric et al. [9] evaluated the long-term impact of climate change on the heating demand in the future using a six-storey

Sustainability 2018, 10, 262; doi:10.3390/su10010262 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 2 of 12 multi-apartmentSustainability 2018, detached10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 building in four different European cities and demonstrated a considerable 2 of 12 reduction in the heating demand in low, medium, and high emission scenarios of climate change. a six-storey multi-apartment detached building in four different European cities and demonstrated a Furtherconsiderable techniques reduction to address in the the heating overheating demand issue in low, conducted medium, by and Three high Regions emission Climate scenarios Change of Groupclimate [10 change.] in London, Further East techniques and South to Eastaddress of England the overheating and they issue reported conducted improved by Three air movement, Regions ventilation,Climate Change solar control, Group [10] cooler in London, floors, and East increased and South façade East of reflectivity England and were they efficient reported in improved decreasing overheatingair movement, hours. ventilation, Gaterell, solar et al. control, [11] conducted cooler floors, a similar and increased study in Southeastfaçade reflectivity England were on aefficient detached housein decreasing and found overheating double glazing hours. and Gaterell, loft insulation et al. [11] asconducted effective a solutions. similar study In another in Southeast study England by Hulme et al.on [a12 detached] reducing house air leakage,and found additional double glazing insulation, and loft and insulation enhancing as solareffective gain solutions. were found In another to cause anstudy increase by Hulme in discomfort et al. [12] hoursreducing in summerair leakage, in ad differentditional locationsinsulation, in and the enhancing UK, and solar Department gain were for Communitiesfound to cause and an Local increase Government in discomfort (DCLG) hours [13 in] reportedsummer in that, different in any locations climate in change the UK, scenario, and heatingDepartment loads for remain Communiti prominentes and untilLocal 2080.Government (DCLG) [13] reported that, in any climate change scenario, heating loads remain prominent until 2080. 2. Problem Statement 2. Problem Statement Residential buildings are contributing to a substantial proportion of the UK’s CO2 emissions as a consequenceResidential ofbuildings consuming are contributing energy for electricalto a substantial appliances, proportion heating, of the lighting, UK’s CO and2 emissions cooking as [14 ]. A warmera consequence future of climate consuming is expected energy to for change electrical the appliances, comfort conditions heating, andlighting, the patternsand cooking of energy [14]. A use in existingwarmer UKfuture home climate stock. is Thisexpected is why to change an emerging the comfort policy conditions on climate and change the adaptationpatterns of energy is focused use on addressingin existing overheating UK home stock. in existing This is and why new an housing.emerging Climate policy on change climate underlines change adaptation a reason for is focused long-term thinkingon addressing in the design overheating process in andexisting it is and important new housing. to address Climate the possiblechange underlines impacts of a climatereason for change long- on theterm new thinking residential in the buildings. design process Figure 1and shows it is likelyimportant changes to address in the meanthe possible annual impacts temperature of climate in the change on the new residential buildings. Figure 1 shows likely changes in the mean annual UK by 2080 in different scenarios. temperature in the UK by 2080 in different scenarios.

Figure 1. Mean annual temperature increase in 2020, 2050, and 2080; 90% probability level, unlikely Figure 1. Mean annual temperature increase in 2020, 2050, and 2080; 90% probability level, unlikely to to be less than the degrees shown on the maps [15]. be less than the degrees shown on the maps [15]. SustainabilitySustainability2018 2018, 10, ,10 262, 262 10.3390/su10010262 3 of 3 12of 12

Figure 1 demonstrates that expected temperature increase would be considerable for many cities,Figure especially1 demonstrates in South that Wales expected in the temperature UK by 2080 increase even if would the low be considerableemission scenario for many takes cities, place. especiallyTherefore, in Southa focus Wales on future in the building UK by 2080 performanc even if thee should low emission be active scenario now. takesA large place. number Therefore, of UK a focusdwellings on future have building no mechanical performance cooling should systems be active [13]. now. Consequently, A large number temperature of UK dwellings increases have will noincrease mechanical occupants’ cooling vulnerability systems [13]. to Consequently, overheating [16]. temperature Furthermore, increases there willis a increasepotential occupants’ risk of heat vulnerabilityloss through to overheatingpoor design [16 detailing,]. Furthermore, which there is iswidel a potentialy neglected. risk of heatThis lossis throughalso considered poor design as a detailing,considerable which risk is widelyaffecting neglected. building Thisperformance is also considered during operation as a considerable that can be risk rectified affecting by buildingsimplified performancethermal modelling. during operation that can be rectiﬁed by simpliﬁed thermal modelling.

3.3. Methodology Methodology ThisThis paper paper presents presents a studya study on on a a multi-story multi-story residential residential building building in in South South Wales,Wales, UKUK thatthat usesuses a a lightweightlightweight steelsteel frameframe as as a a structural structural system. system. Figure Figure2 shows2 shows the the location location of of the the building building in in the the city city ofof Cardiff, Cardiff, UK. UK.

FigureFigure 2. Building2. Building location, location, 51 ◦51°2727044.8”′44.8 N″ N 3◦ 3°1010027.6”′27.6 W.″ W. Graphic Graphic by by author author data data from from [15 [15].].

TheThe research research questions questions in in this this study study mainly mainly focus focus on on how how current current UK UK building building standards standards and and designdesign implications implications would would perform perform in in the the future future and and evaluates evaluates thethe impactimpact ofof climateclimate changechange asas a a potentialpotential riskrisk toto buildings.buildings. FurtherFurther investigationinvestigation onon risk risk identification identification focuses focuses on on thermal thermal bridge bridge simulationsimulation in in order order to to find find any any potential potential failure failure in in design design details details and and to to further further avoid avoid unwanted unwanted heat heat lossloss during during building building operation. operation. This This study study is is not not representative representative of of a commona common practice practice in in the the region region andand the the applied applied research research methodology methodology used used in in this this study study is is focused focused to to predict predict and and improve improve building building performanceperformance for for new new developments developments with with an an understanding understanding of of potential potential climate climate change change risk. risk. InIn order order to to meet meet the the requirements, requirements, dynamic dynamic thermal therma simulationl simulation is usedis used to to assess assess the the performance performance ofof the the building building inin currentcurrent and future future climates. climates. Assessing Assessing the the impact impact of future of future climates climates on UK on homes UK homesis well is documented. well documented. Cardiff Cardiff climate climate data and data HadCM3 and HadCM3 (Hadley (Hadley Center CenterCoupled Coupled Model, Model,coupled coupledatmosphere-ocean atmosphere-ocean general general circulation circulation model) model) output output files files were were used used as as the inputinput forfor the the CCWorldWeatherGenCCWorldWeatherGen tool tool developed developed by by Sustainable Sustainable Energy Energy Research Research Group Group at at the the University University of of SouthamptonSouthampton [17 [17].]. ‘CCWorldWeather ‘CCWorldWeather Gen’ Gen’ can can create create future future weather weather files files in in .EPW .EPW (EnergyPlus (EnergyPlus WeatherWeather Data) Data) format format required required for for simulation simulation in in DesignBuilder DesignBuilder (DB (DB is ais dynamica dynamic thermal thermal simulation simulation softwaresoftware which which employs employs EnergyPlus EnergyPlus as as its its calculation calculation engine. engine. EnergyPlus EnergyPlus is is an an open open source source program program developeddeveloped by by US DepartmentUS Department of Energy). of Energy). The software The software is highly is validatedhighly validated and widely and used widely by building used by researchers).building researchers). These files, These which files, provided which hourly provided weather hourly data, weather are used data, for are modelling used for modelling future impacts future onimpacts the case on study the case [18]. study Further [18]. investigation Further investigation on 2D and on 3D 2D thermal and 3D bridge thermal analysis bridge is alsoanalysis taken is byalso THERMtaken by and THERM PSI THERM and PSI programs. THERM Figureprograms.3 shows Figure the 3 methodology shows the methodology used in this study.used in this study. Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 4 of 12 Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 4 of 12

Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 4 of 12

FigureFigure 3. Flowchart 3. Flowchart of the of research the research methodology. methodology. Figure 3. Flowchart of the research methodology. 3.1. Case3.1. CaseStudy Study 3.1. Case Study A case study used for dynamic thermal simulations by DB software is a 55-unit residential A caseA case study study used used for dynamicfor dynamic thermal thermal simulations simulati byons DB by software DB software is a 55-unit is a 55-unit residential residential building building in Cardiff, UK. Figure 4 demonstrates the 3D model and floor plans (a,b) used for the in Cardiff,building UK.in Cardiff, Figure 4UK. demonstrates Figure 4 demonstrates the 3D model the and3D model ﬂoor plans and floor (a,b) usedplans for(a,b) the used simulations for the simulations (every room is considered in the simulations). Table 1 also shows the fabric details and (everysimulations room is (every considered room in is the considered simulations). in the Table simu1lations). also shows Table the 1 also fabric shows details the and fabric heating details systems and heating systems considered for simulations. consideredheating systems for simulations. considered for simulations.

(b) (b)

(c) (a) (a) (c) Figure 4. 3D model (a); (b) ground floor to 3rd floor; and (c) 4th and 5th floor, the arrow shows the FigureFigure 4. 3D 4. model3D model (a); (b (a) );ground (b) ground floor floorto 3rd to floor; 3rd floor; and ( andc) 4th (c )and 4th 5th and floor, 5th floor, the arrow the arrow shows shows the the north side. northnorth side. side.

Table 1. Fabric details and heating systems. TableTable 1. Fabric 1. Fabric details details and heating and heating systems. systems. Fabric Type Detail Fabric Type Detail External WallFabric 1 Hybrid Steel Type frame construction Detail U-Value 0.17 ShelteredExternal WallWallExternal 11—to Wall unheated 1 Hybrid Hybrid Steel Steel frame frame construction construction U-Value U-Value 0.17 0.17 Sheltered Wall 1—to unheated Twin steel stud construction U-Value 0.18 Shelteredcommunal Wall 1—to unheated areas communal areas Twin steelTwin steel stud stud construction construction U-Value U-Value 0.18 0.18 communalParty areas Partywall wall 1 1 Fully Fully filledfilled and and sealed sealed party wallparty wall PartyFloor wall 1—Ground Floor1 1—Ground Fully filled Solid Solid and concrete concrete sealed 150 mm150 party slab mm wall slab U-Value U-Value 0.17 0.17 FloorFloor 1—Ground 2—OverFloor 2—Over Plant Plant room room Solid concrete No flats flats over 150 over this mm areathis slab area U-Value U-Value U-Value 0.18 0.17 0.18 Floor 2—Over PlantRoof roomRoof No Warm Warmflats flat overflat roof roof constructionthis construction area U-Value U-Value U-Value 0.11 0.18 0.11 RoofWindows Windows Warm Based Based flat uponupon roof aluminium aluminium construction windows windows U-Value U-Value U-Value 1.5 0.11 1.5 Doors—toWindowsDoors—to unheated unheated communal communal areas areas Based upon aluminium windows U-Value U-Value U-Value 1.5 1.5 1.5 Heating Systems Doors—to unheated communal areas Heating Systems U-Value 1.5 Main heating Community heating based on gas boilers 88.6% efficiency Main heating Community heating based on gas boilers 88.6% efficiency Heat distributionHeating Pre-insulated Systems low temperature/variable flow Heat distribution Pre-insulated low temperature/variable flow Main heating Emitters Community heating Radiators based on gas boilers 88.6% efficiency Emitters Radiators Heat distributionSecondary heating Pre-insulated low temperature/variable None flow EmittersSecondary heating Radiators None Secondary heating None Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 5 of 12

Table 1. Cont.

Minimum of 13.6 kWp. south orientation and based PVs <20% shading assumed upon a maximum collector tilt of 30◦ Other Thermal mass Low Lighting 100% low energy lighting SustainabilityVentilation/Mechanical 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 Cooling Mechanical ventilation is used/no mechanical cooling 5 of 12

Minimum of 13.6 kWp. south orientation and based <20% shading PVs 3.2. Comfort Zone upon a maximum collector tilt of 30° assumed Other Generally, thereThermal are mass two well-known approaches for Low thermal comfort definition–the rational or heat-balance approach,Lighting and the adaptive approach. 100% The low mostenergy well-knownlighting method in the heat balance Ventilation/Mechanical Cooling Mechanical ventilation is used/no mechanical cooling approach is “Predicted Mean Vote” (PMV) and the “Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied” (PPD) model proposed3.2. by Comfort Fanger Zone has been accepted widely by scholars. However, Fanger’s model has failed in the results forGenerally, naturally-ventilated there are two well-known buildings approaches and increasing for thermal dissatisfaction comfort definition–the with thisrational approach or has driven interestheat-balance in a variableapproach, indoorand the adaptive temperature approach. standards The most modelwell-known [19]. method Nicol in and the Roafheat balance [20] suggested the Equationapproach (1) modelis “Predicted for occupants Mean Vote” of (PMV) naturally-ventilated and the “Predicted buildings.Percentage of Other Dissatisfied” adaptive (PPD) models are suggestedmodel by Humphrey’sproposed by Fanger models has been [21] foraccepted neutral widely temperature, by scholars. Howeve as givenr, Fanger’s by Equations model has (2) and (3). failed in the results for naturally-ventilated buildings and increasing dissatisfaction with this De Dear et al. also suggested Equations (4) and (5) [22]: approach has driven interest in a variable indoor temperature standards model [19]. Nicol and Roaf [20] suggested the Equation (1) model for occupants of naturally-ventilated buildings. Other adaptive models are suggested by Humphrey’sTn models, o = [21]17 + for0.38 neutral× To temperature, as given by Equations (2) (1) and (3). De Dear et al. also suggested Equations (4) and (5) [22]: Tn, i = 2.6 + 0.831 × Ti (2) , = 17 + 0.38 × (1) Tn, o = 11.9 + 0.534 × To (3) , = 2.6 + 0.831 × (2) Tn, i = 5.41 + 0.731 × Ti (4) , = 11.9 + 0.534 × (3) Tn, o = 17.6 + 0.31T × o (5) , = 5.41 + 0.731 × (4) In the above equations, To is the outdoor air temperature, Ti is the mean indoor air temperature, , = 17.6 + 0.31 × (5) Tn,i is the neutral temperature on the basis of mean indoor air temperature, and Tn,o is the neutral temperatureIn on the the above basis equations, of the To meanis the outdoor outdoor air temperature, air temperature. Ti is the mean Additionally, indoor air temperature, ASHRAE 55 also Tn,i is the neutral temperature on the basis of mean indoor air temperature, and Tn,o is the neutral developedtemperature a standard on the in 2010,basis of which the mean included outdoor the air metabolic temperature. rate Additionally, into the consideration,ASHRAE 55 also as shown ◦ in Figuredeveloped5[ 23]. For a standard simplification in 2010, which in the included simulations, the metabolic this studyrate into considered the consideration, 22–28 as shownC on thein basis of the ASHRAEFigure 555 [23]. standard For simplification as highly in likelythe simulations, to be within this study the considered comfort zone 22–28 in°C Cardiffon the basis and of appliedthe this temperatureASHRAE range 55 forstandard heating as highly and cooling likely to systems. be within the comfort zone in Cardiff and applied this temperature range for heating and cooling systems.

FigureFigure 5. 5.Comfort Comfort Zone Zone by by ASHRAE. ASHRAE. Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 6 of 12 Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 6 of 12

4.4. Results Results and and Discussion Discussion FutureFuture weather weather data data is is created created for for 2050 2050 and and 2080 2080 time time slices slices as as explained explained in in the the methodology methodology sectionsection for for Cardiff Cardiff CityCity wherewhere thethe casecase study is loca located.ted. Figure Figure 6 showsshows the the increasing increasing temperature temperature in in2050 2050 and and 2080 2080 compared compared to the to thecurrent current time. time. Consid Consideringering the expected the expected durability durability of buildings, of buildings, energy energyassessment assessment and, consequently, and, consequently, design design adjustments adjustments for the for 2080s the is 2080s useful. is useful. In order In to order evaluate to evaluate energy energy consumption and carbon emissions, heating and cooling loads are calculated where the heating consumption and carbon◦ emissions, heating and cooling loads are◦ calculated where the heating setpointsetpoint is is adjusted adjusted at at 22 22 C°C and and the the cooling cooling setpoint setpoint is is adjusted adjusted at at 28 28 C.°C. Overall Overall carbon carbon emission emission is is alsoalso estimated estimated considering considering the the system system conditions conditions provided provided in in Table Table1. 1.

15 ℃ 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cardiff Present 7 9 109 1515161715128 7 Cardiff 2050 9 1011101717181917149 8 Cardiff 2080 10 12 12 12 18 18 20 21 19 15 10 9

Figure 6. Average monthly dry bulb temperature in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. Figure 6. Average monthly dry bulb temperature in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. As can be seen from Figure 6, the created weather files show close agreement with Figure 1 predictionsAs can beand, seen therefore, from Figure are reliable6, the createdfor simulation weather works ﬁles showin this closestudy. agreement They show with a 1 Figure°C to 21 °C ◦ ◦ predictionsaverage increase and, therefore, per month are reliablefrom each for simulationperiod. Th workserefore, in these this study. results They demonstrate show a 1 Cthe to likely 2 C averagedecrease increase in heating per monthloads and from potential each period. increase Therefore, in cooling these loads results in summertime. demonstrate the likely decrease in heatingClimate loads change and potential impact is increase a double-edged in cooling sword loads inand summertime. can be both opposable and synergistic to adaptationClimate strategies. change impact Increasing is a double-edged temperature could sword reduce and can heating be both load, opposable while it andcould synergistic also increase to adaptationcooling loads. strategies. Similar Increasing to a large number temperature of UK could dwellings, reduce active heating cooling load, whilesystems it couldare not also used increase for the coolingcase study. loads. Therefore, Similar to an a increasing large number temperature of UK dwellings, has the potential active cooling to increase systems occupant are not usedvulnerability for the caseto overheating study. Therefore, in summer an increasing months. temperature has the potential to increase occupant vulnerability to overheatingRevealing in summer climate months.change impact could lead to the optimization in the design of a decision- makingRevealing process climate and, consequently, change impact improve could lead therma to thel optimizationcomfort and inreduce the design energy of aconsumption. decision-making This processapproach and, causes consequently, effective improve and practical thermal adaptation comfort and strategies reduce energy to reduce consumption. overheating, This as approach well as causesovercooling effective risks and in practical UK houses. adaptation However, strategies it has to to be reduce noted overheating,that due to the as uncertainty well as overcooling of economics, risks inpopulation UK houses. growth, However, and it politi has tocs, be different noted that emission due to scenarios the uncertainty exist, as of economics,shown in Figure population 1. It is growth,possible andthat politics, the emissions different scenarios emission will scenarios be refined exist, in the as shownfuture as in our Figure understanding1. It is possible of probabilistic that the emissions change scenariosis likely to will increase. be reﬁned in the future as our understanding of probabilistic change is likely to increase.

4.1. Heating and Cooling Loads 4.1. Heating and Cooling Loads CardiffCardiff has has a a mild mild humid humid temperate temperate climate climate with with warm warm summers summers and and no no dry dry season. season. During During the the year,year, typical typical wind wind speeds speeds differ differ from from 1 m/s1 m/s to to 9 9 m/s m/s and and rarely rarely exceed exceed 14 14 m/s. m/s. FigureFigure7 7demonstrates demonstrates heatingheating loads loads in in the the current, current, 2050, 2050, and and 2080 2080 time time slices slices for for the the entire entire building. building. The The building building consists consists ofof 55 55 units, units, 1212 ofof whichwhich areare located on the south si sidede of of the the building building and, and, therefore, therefore, are are expected expected to toconsume consume less less energy energy loads loads compared compared to other to other units. units. The The wind wind is most is most often often towards towards the west the west (31% of the time) and less often toward the east (13% of the time) and northeast (13% of the time). Such strong winds are expected to have an impact on overall heating loads for units on these sides. Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 7 of 12

(31% of the time) and less often toward the east (13% of the time) and northeast (13% of the time). Such strong winds are expected to have an impact on overall heating loads for units on these sides. Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 7 of 12

Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 7 of 12 100,000 100,00090,000 90,00080,000 80,00070,000 70,00060,000 60,00050,000 KWH 50,00040,000 KWH 40,00030,000 30,00020,000 20,00010,000 10,0000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Cardiff Present 90,056Jan 67,777 Feb 53,834 Mar 65,558 Apr15,854 May 10, Jun2542631 Jul Aug 3720 13,702 Sep 45,249 Oct 81,524 Nov 90,405 Dec CardiffCardiff Present 2050 90,05675,924 67,777 54,362 53,834 53,268 65,558 53,598 15,854 9403 10, 2234254 2631 156 3720 254 13,702 5011 45,249 30,179 81,524 66,717 90,405 61,662 CardiffCardiff 2050 2080 75,92464,965 54,362 46,272 53,268 40,898 53,598 42,419 9403 3947 2234 580 156 0 254 0 5011 1854 30,179 1741 66,717 60,431 61,662 70,525

Cardiff 2080 64,965 46,272 40,898 42,419 3947 580 0 0 1854 1741 60,431 70,525 Figure 7. Heating loads in the current, 2050, and 2080 time frames. Figure 7. Heating loads in the current, 2050, and 2080 time frames. Figure 7. Heating loads in the current, 2050, and 2080 time frames. As can be observed from Figure 7, the temperature increase would cause lower heating loads As can be observed from Figure7, the temperature increase would cause lower heating loads duringAs canthe year.be observed This could from be Figureup to 25,000 7, the kWhtemperature for the entire increase building would in cause January. lower It also heating shows loads that during the year. This could be up to 25,000 kWh for the entire building in January. It also shows that duringheating the loads year. are This going could to bebe up completely to 25,000 kWhremoved for the in entireJune, July,building and inAugust January. months, It also andshows cooling that heating loads are going to be completely removed in June, July, and August months, and cooling loads heatingloads are loads required are going to keep to be the completely interior ofremoved the building in June, within July, andcomfort August zone. months, This resultand cooling is also are required to keep the interior of the building within comfort zone. This result is also comparable loadscomparable are required to [9] andto keep [13], theconfirming interior theof thereduction building of heatingwithin comfortloads in zone.future This times result and thatis also the to [9] and [13], conﬁrming the reduction of heating loads in future times and that the heating loads comparableheating loads to remain[9] and prominent[13], confirming energy the loads reduction until 2080. of heating Figure loads8 shows in futurecooling times loads and requirement that the remain prominent energy loads until 2080. Figure8 shows cooling loads requirement for the entire heatingfor the entireloads remainbuilding prominent in the current, energy 2050, loads and until 2080 2080. time Figureslices. 8 shows cooling loads requirement building in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. for the entire building in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 KWH 600

KWH 400 400 200 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Cardiff Present Jan00008911140000 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CardiffCardiff Present 2050 000089111400000000881011401980000 CardiffCardiff 2050 2080 000088101140198000000005025807001132 13 0 0 0

Cardiff 2080 00005025807001132 13 0 0 0 Figure 8. Cooling loads in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. Figure 8. Cooling loads in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. As Figure 8 shows,Figure there 8. Cooling is no requirement loads in the current, for active 2050, cooling and 2080 devices time slices. in the present time for this caseAs study, Figure which 8 shows, shows there the isapplied no requirement design soluti for activeons were cooling successful devices in in avoiding the present overheating time for this risk caseinside Asstudy, Figurethe whichbuilding.8 shows, shows However, there the applied is noas requirementtemperatures design soluti for onsin activecrease were cooling successfulin the devicesfuture, in avoiding inthere the is present overheating a necessity time forrisk for thisinsideutilization case the study, building.of active which coolingHowever, shows thedevices. as applied temperatures Another design factor solutions increase that wereplaysin the successfulan future, important inthere avoiding role is ina thenecessity overheating building’s for utilizationoverall energy of active consumption cooling devices. is the infiltration Another factorrate and that ventilation plays an strategies.important Forrole this in thecase building’s study, the overallinfiltration energy rate consumption has been set isat the4 m infiltration/h × m @ Pa rate and (the ventilation maximum strategies.rate is set at For 10.00 this m case/h ×study, m @ Pa the infiltrationfor Part L rateregulations) has been and set atmechanical 4 m/h × ventilation m @ Pa (the has maximum also been rate considered, is set at 10.00 which m appears/h × m to @ Pa be a forsuccessful Part L regulations) design strategy and mechanicalfor the current ventilation summer has mo alsonths. been [24]. considered, In order to whichcalculate appears cooling to loadsbe a successful design strategy for the current summer months. [24]. In order to calculate cooling loads Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 8 of 12 risk inside the building. However, as temperatures increase in the future, there is a necessity for utilization of active cooling devices. Another factor that plays an important role in the building’s overall energy consumption is the infiltration rate and ventilation strategies. For this case study, the infiltration rate has been set at 4 m3/h × m2 @ Pa (the maximum rate is set at 10.00 m3/h × m2 Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10.3390/su10010262 8 of 12 @ Pa for Part L regulations) and mechanical ventilation has also been considered, which appears to be fora successful 2050 and design 2080, a strategy mechanical for the cooling current system summer with months. a COP [24of ].4 Inis orderassumed to calculate to keep the cooling operative loads temperaturefor 2050 and below 2080, a28 mechanical °C. cooling system with a COP of 4 is assumed to keep the operative temperature below 28 ◦C. 4.2. Carbon Emissions 4.2. Carbon Emissions Residential buildings are responsible for almost a quarter of the UK’s CO2 emissions. The 2008 Residential buildings are responsible for almost a quarter of the UK’s CO2 emissions. The 2008 Climate Change Act requires 1990 CO2 emissions to be cut by 34% by 2020, as well as an 80% cut in Climate Change Act requires 1990 CO emissions to be cut by 34% by 2020, as well as an 80% cut in emissions by 2050. It is not likely to meet2 the 2050 target without changing emissions from homes emissions by 2050. It is not likely to meet the 2050 target without changing emissions from homes [25]. [25]. Therefore, the building regulations set out the Target Emission Rate (TER) as a minimum Therefore, the building regulations set out the Target Emission Rate (TER) as a minimum allowable allowable standard (expressed in annual kg of CO2 per m ) for the building performance. The CO2 standard (expressed in annual kg of CO per m2) for the building performance. The CO emission emission rate of a building is measured on2 the basis of its actual specifications and is expressed2 as the rate of a building is measured on the basis of its actual specifications and is expressed as the Dwelling Dwelling Emission Rate (DER) for residential buildings (excluding common areas). This is the annual Emission Rate (DER) for residential buildings (excluding common areas). This is the annual CO2 2 m CO emissions of the proposed dwelling expressed in kg/2 . A typical TER for new dwelling, on gas, emissions of the proposed dwelling expressed in kg/m . A typical TER for new dwelling, on gas, is normally around 20–25 kg∙CO2/m per year [26]. is normally around 20–25 kg·CO /m2 per year [26]. Figure 9 shows carbon emissions2 per month for the entire building. It shows that a warmer Figure9 shows carbon emissions per month for the entire building. It shows that a warmer future future climate will deliver lower carbon emissions, as was expected from considerable reductions in climate will deliver lower carbon emissions, as was expected from considerable reductions in heating heating loads and a minor increase in cooling loads in the case study as a high-performance building. loads and a minor increase in cooling loads in the case study as a high-performance building. Carbon Carbon emissions also include the usage of lighting inside the building (specification is given in emissions also include the usage of lighting inside the building (specification is given in Table1). Table 1).

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000 CO2 (KG) 10,000

5,000

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cardiff Present 24,845 19,11018,403 18,747 6625 5163 3424 3647 6007 13,845 22,688 24,928 Cardiff 2050 21,378 15,81515,810 15,804 5066 3201 2768 2853 3872 10,143 19,515 22,783 Cardiff 2080 18,656 13,82912,773 13,059 3660 2809 2734 3105 3103 7007 17,481 20,050

Figure 9. CO2 production in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. Figure 9. CO2 production in the current, 2050, and 2080 time slices. As observed from Figure 9, a warmer future climate reduces carbon emissions of the studied buildingAs observed by almost from 7000 Figure Kg at9 maximum, a warmer by future 2080 climatecompared reduces to current carbon time emissions in the cold of themonths. studied As thebuilding building by almost benefits 7000 from Kg a at standard maximum infiltration by 2080 compared rate, no overheating to current time risk inexists the coldin the months. current As time, the andbuilding by increasing benefits from the average a standard temperature, infiltration the rate, over noall overheating carbon emissions risk exists in July in the and current August time, remain and almostby increasing the same the as average the current temperature, time. the overall carbon emissions in July and August remain almost the sameThis asresult the currentis comparable time. to Collins et al. [16] stating that the reduction in CO2 emissions is expectedThis by result 2080 is and comparable heating loads to Collins remain et dominant al. [16] stating until that2080. the The reduction overall floor in CO area2 emissions of the case is studyexpected is over by 2080 3756 and m heatingand as the loads building remain exceeds dominant the until SAP 2080.requirements The overall of DER, floor solar area ofpanels the case are 2 usedstudy to is meet over 3756regulationsm and (the as the impact building of PV exceeds panels the are SAP not requirements included in ofthe DER, simulation solar panels results). are usedThe building used 13.6 kWp of solar panels in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

4.3. Thermal Bridge Analysis Further simulation works for the case study considered thermal bridge analysis. The analysis result is given in Table2. Results are categorized into three columns for the decision-making process—junctions that are well-designed and no thermal bridge risk is identified, junctions where a thermal bridge is noticed, and junctions that are referred for further investigations. SustainabilityForSustainability a parapet 2018 2018, 10,, 26210 detail, 26210.3390/su10010262 10.3390/su10010262 (right column), as the insulation for the wall is not brought 9 of above 912 of 12 the SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 2018 2018, 10, ,2622018 102018, 10.3390/su10010262262, ,10 10 ,10.3390/su10010262 ,262 262 10.3390/su10010262 10.3390/su10010262 9 of 912 of 12 9 9 of of 12 12 underside of the roof deck, both 2D and 3D analysis were conducted and results confirm additional ForFor a parapet a parapet detail detail (right (right column), column), as theas the insulation insulation for forthe the wall wall is notis not brought brought above above the the analysisFor is Fora required parapet ForaFor parapet aa parapet parapet fordetail detail further (right detaildetail (right in-situ column), (right(right column), diagnostic column),column), as theas the in as testassulation theinthe bysulation inin infraredsulation sulationfor forthe camera the forwallfor thewallthe is forwall notwallis potential not brought isis notbroughtnot brought brought designabove above the above refinementabove the thethe undersideunderside of theof the roof roof deck, deck, both both 2D 2Dand and 3D 3Danalysis analysis were were conducted conducted and and results results confirm confirm additional additional inunderside future.undersideundersideunderside For of the curtainof theroof of of roofthe thedeck, walls roof deck,roof both fabricatorsdeck, deck, both 2D both both2Dand and 2D 3D considered2D and 3Danalysisand analysis3D 3D analysis analysiswere thermal were conducted were were conducted breaks conducted conducted and and and results due and resultsand to confirmresults results insufficient confirm confirm confirmadditional additional information additional additional analysisanalysis is requiredis required for forfurther further in-situ in-situ diagnostic diagnostic test test by byinfrared infrared camera camera for forpotential potential design design fromanalysisanalysis supplieranalysis analysisis requiredis onrequired isis what requiredrequired for materialsforfurther furtherforfor furtherin-situfurther arein-situ used in-situdiagnosticin-situ diagnostic as diagnosticdiagnostic thermal test test by breaks, testbytestinfrared infrared byby thermalinfrared infraredcamera camera camera conductivitycamerafor forpotential potentialforfor potentialpotential design is assumeddesign designdesign as refinementrefinement in future.in future. For For curtain curtain walls walls fabricators fabricators considered considered thermal thermal breaks breaks and and due due to insufficientto insufficient refinementrefinementrefinementrefinement◦ in future. in future. in in Forfuture. future. Forcurtain curtainFor For curtainwalls curtain walls fabricators walls walls fabricators fabricators fabricators considered considered considered considered thermal thermal thermal thermalbreaks breaks andbreaks breaks and due and due andto insufficient due todue insufficient to to insufficient insufficient 0.1informationW/MinformationC for from simulations.from supplier supplier on Figures onwhat what materials in materials the left are column are used used as confirm thermalas thermal no breaks, further breaks, thermal investigationthermal conductivity conductivity is required is is for informationinformationinformationinformation from from supplier from fromsupplier suppliersupplier on onwhat what onon materials whatwhat materials materialsmaterials are areused used areare as used usedthermalas thermal asas thermal thermalbreaks, breaks, breaks,thermalbreaks, thermal thermal thermalconductivity conductivity conductivityconductivity is is isis curtainassumedassumed walls as used0.1as 0.1W/M °C in W/M °C the study for forsimulations. assimulations. no thermal Figures Figures bridge in thein is the left identified. left column column confirm One confirm of theno nofurther most further frequent investigation investigation locations for assumedassumedassumedassumed as 0.1 as 0.1W/M °C as as W/M °C0.1 0.1 W/M °C W/M °C for forsimulations. simulations. for for simulations. simulations. Figures Figures Figures inFigures the in theleft in in leftthecolumn the columnleft left column confirmcolumn confirm confirm confirmno furtherno further no no further investigationfurther investigation investigation investigation thermalis requiredis required bridge for risk forcurtain curtain is,mainly, walls walls used at used fenestration in thein the study study interfaces.as noas nothermal thermal Window-to-wall bridge bridge is identified.is identified. and door-to-wallOne One of theof the most interfacesmost is requiredis requiredisis required required for forcurtain curtainfor for curtain wallscurtain walls used walls walls used in used usedthein thestudy in in studythe the as study study noas thermalno as as thermalno no thermal thermalbridge bridge isbridge bridge identified. is identified. is is identified. identified. One One of One theOneof themost of of mostthe the most most createfrequentfrequent further locations locations challenges for forthermal thermal for energy bridge bridge considerationsrisk risk is, mainly,is, mainly, at and fenestrationat fenestration condensation interfaces. interfaces. risk Window-to-wall because Window-to-wall of the positioningand and frequentfrequentfrequentfrequent locations locations locations locations for forthermal thermalfor for thermal thermalbridge bridge riskbridge bridge risk is, mainly,risk is,risk mainly, is, is, mainly, atmainly, fenestration at fenestration at at fenestration fenestration interfaces. interfaces. interfaces. interfaces. Window-to-wall Window-to-wall Window-to-wall Window-to-wall and and and and door-to-walldoor-to-wall interfaces interfaces create create further further challenges challenges for forenergy energy considerations considerations and and condensation condensation risk risk withindoor-to-walldoor-to-wall thedoor-to-walldoor-to-wall rest interfaces of interfaces the interfacesinterfaces assembly. create create further createcreate further Figures furtherchallengesfurther challenges in challengesthechallenges for middle forenergy energy forfor column energyconsiderationsenergy considerations show considerationsconsiderations thermal and and condensation and breakscondensationand condensationcondensation used risk forrisk doors riskrisk becausebecause of theof the positioning positioning within within the the rest rest of theof the assembly. assembly. Figures Figures in thein the middle middle column column show show andbecause louversbecausebecause becauseof the of thethe positioning ofof projectthepositioningthe positioningpositioning inwithin the within ground withinthewithin therest floortherest theof resttheofrest were the assembly. ofof unabletheassembly.the assembly.assembly. Figures to entirelyFigures Figures Figuresin thein remove the middle inin themiddlethe the middlecolumnmiddle thermal column column columnshow bridgeshow showshow risk. thermalthermal breaks breaks used used for fordoors doors and and louvers louvers of theof the proj project ectin thein the ground ground floor floor were were unable unable to entirelyto entirely However,thermalthermalthermal thermalbreaks this breaks was usedbreaks breaks anused for ignorable used usedfordoors doorsfor for and doors doors junction and louvers and louversand for louvers oflouvers the theof theproj projectof of projthe ectthe ectinproj proj because the inectect theground in in groundthe the ground locationfloorground floor were floor floorwere was unable were were notunable directlytounable unable entirely to entirely to to connected entirely entirely removeremove the the thermal thermal bridge bridge risk. risk. However, However, this this was was an ignorablean ignorable junction junction for forthe the project project because because the the toremove theremove residentialremove theremove thethermal thermalthe the space. thermal thermalbridge bridge risk.bridge bridge risk. However, risk. risk.However, However, However, this this was thiswas thisan wasignorable anwas ignorable an an ignorable ignorable junction junction junction junctionfor forthe theprojectfor for projectthe the becauseproject project because because becausethe the the the locationlocation was was not not directly directly connected connected to theto the residential residential space. space. locationlocationlocation locationwas was not was notwasdirectly directlynot not directly connecteddirectly connected connected connected to the to theresidential to to residentialthe the residential residential space. space. space. space. Table 2. Thermal bridge analysis with Therm and Psi Therm. From top to bottom: left column curtain TableTable 2. Thermal 2. Thermal bridge bridge analysis analysis with with Therm Therm and and Psi PsiTherm. Therm. From From top topto bottom: to bottom: left leftcolumn column curtain curtain TableTable 2. TableThermalTable 2. Thermal 2. 2. Thermal bridgeThermal bridge analysis bridge bridge analysis analysiswith analysis with Therm with Thermwith and Therm Therm and Psi Therm.Psiand and Therm. Psi Psi From Therm. Therm. From top From Fromtopto bottom: to top top bottom: to to leftbottom: bottom: columnleft column left left curtaincolumn column curtain curtain curtain walls;walls;walls; middle middle middle column: column: column: wall-to-door wall-to-door and and and louv louver; louver; ander; andand right right column: column: column: Parapet Parapet Parapet 2D 2Dand 2D and 3D. and 3D. 3D. walls;walls; middlewalls;walls; middle column:middle middle column: column: wall-to-doorcolumn: wall-to-door wall-to-door wall-to-door and and louv louvand er;and and er;louv louv and righter;er; rightand and column: right column:right column: Parapetcolumn: Parapet 2DParapet Parapet and2D and 3D.2D 2D 3D.and and 3D. 3D. NoNo Thermal Thermal Bridge Bridge Thermal Thermal Bridge Bridge Need Need Further Further Investigation Investigation NoNo NoThermal Thermal ThermalNoNo Thermal Thermal BridgeBridge Bridge Bridge Bridge Thermal Thermal Thermal Thermal Thermal Bridge Bridge Bridge Bridge Bridge Need Need Further Need Need Further Need Further InvestigationFurther Further Investigation Investigation InvestigationInvestigation

DynamicDynamic thermal thermal modelling modelling accomplished accomplished in this in this study study considered considered the the model model assuming assuming there there is is DynamicDynamicDynamicDynamic thermal thermal thermal thermalmodelling modelling modelling modelling accomplished accomplished accomplished accomplished in this in this study in in thisstudy this considered study study considered considered considered the themodel modelthe the assuming model model assuming assuming assuming there there is there there is is is no thermalno thermal bridging bridging risk. risk. However, However, further further analysis analysis reveals reveals that that such such impact impact exists. exists. Dynamic Dynamic thermal thermal no thermalno thermalnono thermal thermalbridging bridging bridging bridging risk. risk. However, risk. However,risk. However, However, further further furtheranalysis further analysis analysis analysisreveals reveals revealsthat reveals that such thatsuch that impact such suchimpact exists.impact impact exists. Dynamic exists. exists. Dynamic Dynamic Dynamic thermal thermal thermal thermal modellingmodelling software software determined determined the the overall overall energy energy consumption consumption of theof the case case study study on onthe the basis basis of of modellingmodellingmodellingmodelling software software softwaresoftware determined determined determineddetermined the theoverall overall thethe overallenergyoverall energy energy consumptionenergy consumption consumption consumption of theof the case ofof case the thestudy casecasestudy on study study theon thebasis onon basis thethe of basis basis of ofof inputsinputs on onthe the U-values U-values of variousof various components. components. inputsinputs oninputsinputs theon theU-values on on U-valuesthe the U-values U-values of various of various of of various components.various components. components. components. THERMTHERM and and Psi PsiTHERM THERM are are used used to modelto model the the ther thermalmal bridging bridging risk risk in thisin this study study and and both both THERMTHERMTHERMTHERM and and Psi and PsiandTHERM THERMPsi Psi THERM THERM are areused usedare are to used usedmodelto model to to themodel model thether therthe malthe malther therbridging malbridgingmal bridging bridging risk risk in thisrisk inrisk this studyin in this studythis and study study and both and bothand both both utiliseutilise the the finite-element finite-element method method to modelto model twotwo- and and three-dimensional three-dimensional heat-transfer heat-transfer problems. problems. A A utiliseutilise theutiliseutilise thefinite-element finite-element thethe finite-elementfinite-element method method method methodto modelto model toto two- modelmodel two- and twotwo-and three-dimensional andthree-dimensionaland three-dimensionalthree-dimensional heat-transfer heat-transfer heat-transferheat-transfer problems. problems. problems.problems. A A AA thermalthermalthermal bridge bridge isbridge described is described is described by bylinear linear by thermal linear thermal thermal transmittance transmittance transmittance ( () and) (and length) andlength (length ).( Multiplying). (Multiplying ). Multiplying these these these thermalthermalthermal bridge bridge isbridge described is described is described by linearby linear by thermal linear thermal thermal transmittance transmittance transmittance ( () and )( and length) andlength (length). ( Multiplying). (Multiplying). Multiplying these these these twotwo properties properties determines determines what what thermal thermal bridge bridge adds adds to theto the overall overall transmission transmission heat heat transfer transfer twotwo properties twotwoproperties propertiesproperties determines determines determinesdetermines what what thermal whatwhat thermal thermal thermalbridge bridge bridgeabridgedds adds to a addsthetodds the overalltoto theoverallthe overalltransmissionoverall transmission transmissiontransmission heat heat transfer heat heattransfer transfer transfer coefficientcoefficient of theof the building. building. The The impa impact ofct theof the thermal thermal bridge bridge on onthe the overall overall heat heat loss loss of theof the building building coefficientcoefficientcoefficientcoefficient of the of thebuilding. of of building.the the building. building. The The impa The impaThect impaof impact the ofct ctthethermal of of thermalthe the thermal thermalbridge bridge onbridge bridge theon the overallon on overallthe the overallheat overall heat loss heat heatloss of the loss ofloss thebuilding of of buildingthe the building building Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 10 of 12

Dynamic thermal modelling accomplished in this study considered the model assuming there is no thermal bridging risk. However, further analysis reveals that such impact exists. Dynamic thermal modelling software determined the overall energy consumption of the case study on the basis of inputs on the U-values of various components. THERM and Psi THERM are used to model the thermal bridging risk in this study and both utilise the finite-element method to model two- and three-dimensional heat-transfer problems. A thermal bridge is described by linear thermal transmittance (ψk) and length (lk). Multiplying these two properties determines what thermal bridge adds to the overall transmission heat transfer coefficient of the building. The impact of the thermal bridge on the overall heat loss of the building is, therefore, a fraction of heat loss over the linear thermal bridges against the total transmission heat losses across the building envelope, this can be quantified as [27]:

= I + + K × Ht ∑i=1 Ui Ai ∑k=1 ψk lk where Ht is overall transmission heat transfer coefficient of the building envelope; Ui is thermal 2 transmittance; Ai is area which Ui applies (m ); ψ is linear thermal transmittance of building junction k (W/mK); and lk is where ψ applies. This study, therefore, acknowledges the impact of thermal bridging on the overall energy consumption and carbon emissions and the intention of including such analysis was to address a holistic approach to assess building performance in the design development stage and before the translation of design details to construction details. The quantification made by this study on the impact of climate change on overheating, increasing cooling loads, and carbon emissions implies the importance of such analysis by building developers. Furthermore, the importance of thermal bridging analysis in two- and three-dimensions to rectify design details before construction begins can have a significant impact on the building performance gap and make simulation outputs closer to the actual post-occupancy result even though the occupant factor can be referred to further studies.

5. Conclusions This study describes a methodology on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and thermal bridge investigations in a changing climate. The worst-case scenario in climate change is chosen to evaluate heating and cooling loads, as well as carbon emissions of a 55-unit residential building in South Wales, UK. Further investigation also included thermal bridge analysis in order to avoid any unwanted heat loss during building operation. The model, which is resilient to the greatest change in future climate, is highly likely to be the most robust design. The temperature increase in the UK is likely to continue until 2080 and will have an effect on building performance and, consequently, on carbon emissions. In Cardiff, an increase of up to two degrees (average dry bulb temperature) per month is expected which will cause a reduction in heating demand and prove overheating risks in the summer months in 2080, although the design strategies in fabric, inﬁltration rate, and mechanical ventilation used in the case study seem to be effective to control the loads even in 2050 and 2080. The case study shows no requirement for cooling loads in the present time even though over 1000 kWh is required to remove overheating in 2080 (assuming that a mechanical cooling system is used with a COP of 4). Carbon emissions reduction could be up to 7000 kg per month in cold months in 2080 compared to the present time and remains almost the same in summer months. Further 2D and 3D thermal bridge simulations demonstrate the capacity of the programs to rectify design details in order to avoid heat loss during building operation. Considering the building regulations and the requirement to reduce carbon emissions, it seems that it is practical and economically feasible for building developers to reduce CO2 emissions in Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 11 of 12 order to meet the UK government target for 2050 by improving building fabric ﬁrst and then using combinations of microgeneration.

Acknowledgments: The case study used in this research is provided by Morganstone Ltd. within the Knowledge Transfer Partnership project between the company and Cardiff Metropolitan University. The author wishes to express his gratitude to both parties. Conﬂicts of Interest: The authors declare no conﬂict of interest.

References

1. Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). Homes for Future: More Affordable, More Sustainable; Department for Communities and Local Government: London, UK, 2007. 2. HM Government. Industrial Strategy: Government and Industry in Partnership; Department for Communities and Local Government: London, UK, 2013. 3. Athienitis, A.K.; Santamouris, K. Thermal Analysis and Design of Passive Solar Buildings; James & James Ltd.: London, UK, 2005. 4. British Standards (BSi). Thermal Performance of Buildings-Calculation of Energy NEEDS for Space Heating and Cooling Using Dynamic Methods—General Criteria and Validation Procedures; British Standards: London, UK, 2007. 5. Gething, B. Design for Future Climate: Opportunities for Adaptation in the Built Environment; Technology Strategy Board: Swindon, UK, 2010. 6. Hacker, J.N.; Belcher, S.E.; Connell, R.K. Beating the Heat: Keeping UK Buildings Cool in a Warming Climate. 2005. Available online: http://www.arup.com/_assets/_download/download396.pdf (accessed on 8 March 2016). 7. Sajjadian, S.M. Future Proofing UK Sustainable Homes under Conditions of Climatic Uncertainty. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK, 2015. 8. Orme, M.; Palmer, J.; Irving, S. Control of overheating in well-insulated housing. In Proceedings of the IBSE/ ASHRAE Conference: Building Sustainability, Value and Profit, Edinburgh, UK, 24–26 September 2003. 9. Andric, I.; Pina, A.; Ferraro, P.; Fournier, J.; Lacarriere, B.; Le Corre, O. The impact of climate change on building heat demand in different climate types. Energy Build. 2017, 149, 225–234. [CrossRef] 10. Three Regions Climate Change Group. Your Home in a Changing Climate: Retrofitting Existing Homes for Climate Change Impacts; Three Regions Climate Change Group: London, UK, 2008. 11. Gaterell, M.; McEvoy, M. The impact of climate change uncertainties on the performance of energy efficiency meeasures applied to dwellings. Energy Build. 2005, 37, 982–995. [CrossRef] 12. Hulme, M.; Jenkins, J.; Lu, X.; Turnpenny, J.; Mitchell, T.; Jenkins, G.; Jones, R.; Lowe, J.; Murphy, J.; Hassell, D.; et al. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom; The UKCIP Scientific Report; Tyndall Centre for Climatic Change Research, School of Environmental Engineering, University of East Anglia: Norwich, UK, 2009. 13. Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). English Housing Survey: Housing Stock Report; DCLG: London, UK, 2008. 14. Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). 2015 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures; DCLG: London, UK, 2017. 15. Zero Carbon Hub. Carbon Complance for Tomorrow’s New Homes: A Review of the Modelling Tool and Assumption Topic 3: Future Climate Change; Zero Carbon Hub: London, UK, 2010. 16. Collins, L.; Natarajan, S.; Levermore, G. Climate change and future energy consumption in UK housing stock. Build. Serv. Eng. Res. Technol. 2010, 31, 80–86. [CrossRef] 17. Muphy, J.; Sexton, D.; Jenkins, G.; Boorman, P.; Booth, B.; Brown, K.; Clark, R.; Collins, M.; Harris, G.; Kendon, L.; et al. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections. Version 3. 2010. Available online: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/images/stories/projections_pdfs/UKCP09_ Projections_V2.pdf (accessed on 8 July 2015). 18. University of Southampton, Sustainable Energy Research Group. Available online: http://www.serg.soton. ac.uk/ccweathergen/ (accessed on 8 July 2015). Sustainability 2018, 10, 262 12 of 12

19. Sajjadian., S.M.; Lewis, J.; Sharples, S. Interpretation and determination of thermal comfort in climate change context. In Proceedings of the International Post Graduate Research Conference IPGRC, University of Salford, Salford, UK, 8–10 April 2013; pp. 1106–1113. 20. Nicol, F.; Roaf, S. Pioneering new indoor temperature standard: The Pakistan project. Energy Build. 1996, 23, 169–174. [CrossRef] 21. Humphreys, M.A. Comfortable indoor temperatures related to the outdoor air temperature. Build. Serv. Eng. 1976, 44, 5–27. 22. De Dear, R.; Brager, G.S. Developing and adaptive model of thermal comfort and preference. Energy Build. 1998, 104, 145–167. 23. American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers organization (ASHRAE). Thermal Environment Conditions for Human Occupancy; American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers organization: Atlanta, GA, USA, 2010. 24. Department for Communities and Local Government. Building a Greener Future: Policy Statement; Department for Communities and Local Government: London, UK, 2007. 25. Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). SAP 2009: The Government’s Standard Assessment Procedure for Energy Rating of Dwellings; 2009 Edition; Building Research Establishment: Watford, UK, 2010. 26. HM Government. Approved Document Part L1A: Conservation of Fuel and Power in New Dwellings; 2010 Edition; Communities and Local Government: London, UK, 2010. 27. European Committee for Standardization. Thermal Bridges in Building Construction—Heat Flows and Surface Temperatures—Detailed Calculations; European Committee for Standardization: Brussels, Belgium, 2007.

© 2018 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).