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China Leads APAC in Transaction Consideration China – February 2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Hotel Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn HOTELS Nathalia J. Wilson Senior Director Asia Pacific China leads APAC in transaction consideration +65 6415 7589 [email protected] China’s hotel industry continued to grow and reflected increased interest from Annie Wang both developers and private equity in 2018. Director China • Occupancy rates for hotels in first-, second- and third-tier • There are approximately 177,000 rooms in three-star and +86 10 5925 2029 cities stood at 71.9%, up 1.6 percentage points (ppts) year- above hotels expected to be handed over to the market in the Annie.wang@ savills.com.cn on-year (YoY), 64.5% (up 1.5 ppts YoY) and 59.6% (2.1 ppts coming five years. YoY), respectively. Zoe Zhou • Glamping, red tourism and wellness retreats are becoming Associate Director • First-tier cities recorded an increase in Average Daily Rates emerging tourism trends. Asia Pacific (ADRs) to RMB841.3 (up 6.2% YoY) while second-tier cities +65 9388 3690 fell to RMB537.1 (down 0.8% YoY) and third-tier cities [email protected] increased slightly to RMB515.2 (up 0.3% YoY) by Q2/2018. Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on • Revenue per available room (RevPar) for five-star hotels “ Business travel may suffer the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has saw significant gains on a YoY basis across all city tiers by from the ongoing economic a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads Q2/2018, with first-tier city RevPar rising to RMB594.9 (up rather than follows, and now has uncertainty, but China’s over 600 offices and associates 8.4% YoY), second tier increasing to RMB339.4 (up 5.5% YoY) throughout the Americas, Europe, and third tier moving up to RMB310.8 (up 1.1% YoY). tourism sector saw upticks in Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general arrivals indicating that there is informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or • Wuhan recorded the highest RevPar growth among the quoted in part or in whole, nor may still solid demand from both it be used as a basis for any 20 key cities while Zhengzhou saw highest growth in contract, prospectus, agreement occupancy. domestic and international or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has travellers.” been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability • China investment volume stood at RMB25.9 billion by JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its Q3/2018, up 65.3% YoY. use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Hotel CHINA-WIDE FIVE-STAR HOTEL emerging as a multi-faceted powerhouse in GRAPH 1: ADRs (Four Quarters Moving Average) MARKET OVERVIEW central China. With a famous, fiery cuisine By City Tier, Q3/2011 to Q2/2018 The gap between first-tier cities and second- and an increasingly industrial and commercial Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 and third-tier cities widened in 2018 as base, Changsha is seeing an increase in 950 first-tier cities recorded an increase in ADRs business travellers from around the region— most of which are alighting to four-star hotels 900 to RMB841.3 (up 6.2% YoY) while second-tier cities fell to RMB537.1 (down 0.8% YoY) and (with a 1.4 ppts increase in occupancy rates 850 third-tier cities increased slightly to RMB515.2 YoY). Changsha is also one of the cities leading the 800 (up 0.3% YoY). Occupancy rates for five-star hotels economic surge in central China. As central 750 increased across the board on a YoY basis and western regions of the country catch up with the coastal mega-cities, Changsha is 700 with first-tier cities at 70.7% (up 1.5 ppts YoY), second-tier cities at 62.5% (4.2 ppts YoY) and seeing its tertiary industry grow to take up a 650 59.8% in third-tier cities (up 2.8 ppts YoY). larger and larger slice of its economy. As a portion of total industry, Changsha’s RMB per per day RMB 600 RevPar for five-star hotels saw significant gains on a YoY basis across all city tiers, with tertiary industry has increased 20.6 ppts from 550 first-tier rising to RMB594.9 (up 8.4% YoY), 2010 to Q3/2018. The service sector for the city 500 second-tier increasing to RMB339.4 (up 5.5% is increasing at a rapid pace and is replacing YoY) and third-tier moving up to RMB310.8 the city’s manufacturing sector as the main 450 (up 1.1% YoY). economic driver. This and the improving 400 city infrastructure—including a maglev line, six metro lines by 2021 and a high-speed Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 CHINA HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Occupancy rates saw an uptick across all city railway link (Wuhan can be reached in only 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 tiers both on a YoY basis and vs the three-year one hour)—is causing an uptick in business Source China Ministry of Culture and Tourism; Savills Research average. However, second-tier cities ADRs travellers to the city, as seen by the increased suffered across the country with declines in occupancy rates for four-star hotels across the both YoY and vs the three-year average. city. Additionally, Changsha is also home to The highest RevPar growth for the 20 cities Changsha Huanghua International Airport, GRAPH 2: Occupancy Rates (Four Quarters was in Wuhan with a 24.2% increase over its the country’s 14th busiest airport based Moving Average) By City Tier, Q3/2011 to Q2/2018 three-year average, showcasing the emergence on passenger numbers. The airport is also Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 of the central China hospitality market. The undergoing two expansions (one to be finished 75% highest growth in occupancy was for another in 2020 and one in 2030) and will eventually central China city, Zhengzhou, with an 11.3 be able to support 71 million passengers ppts increase (though this coincided with annually. 70% a sharp fall of 29.8% in ADRs). Nanjing had Changsha’s mid-to high-end hotel market the strongest showing in ADRs with a 9.4% over the next few years—up until 2022—will increase over the three-year average. see around 3,000 keys from international- 65% Outbound tourism is estimated at 162 branded hotels launch onto the market to join million in 2018 (and is expected to exceed the nine five-star, 21 four-star and 18 three-star 180 million in 2019), with 84 million trips hotels in the city. Hilton is increasing its 60% to locations outside of Greater China (i.e. exposure to the Changsha market, bringing excluding trips to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and several Hampton-branded hotels to the 55% Macau). The most popular destinations were upper-midscale market and opening the all Asia-Pacific countries, namely Thailand, luxury Conrad Changsha in 2019. The hotel Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. market will continue to develop in the city as 50% city- and region-wide infrastructure improves Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 CITY SPOTLIGHT: CHANGSHA and central China continues to develop as an 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Changsha, the capital of Hunan province economic power. and the home of the young Mao Zedong, is Source China Ministry of Culture and Tourism; Savills Research GRAPH 3: RevPar (Four Quarters Moving Average) TABLE 1: Top Five Chinese Cities’ Five-Star Hotels Ranked By ADR*, Q2/2018 By City Tier, Q3/2011 to Q2/2018 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 NO. OF CITIES ADR RevPAR OCCUPANCY 650 HOTELS 600 Shanghai 72 1,004 734 73% 550 500 Beijing 61 884 643 73% 450 400 Guangzhou 22 817 565 69% 350 RMB per day 300 Shenzhen 24 738 534 72% 250 200 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Sanya 14 727 482 66% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *With at least five hotels in the market. Source China Ministry of Culture and Tourism; Savills Research Source China Ministry of Culture and Tourism; Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2 Hotel TRANSACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS to expect to international Chinese tourists. GRAPH 4: First- And Second-Tier City Five-Star The largest deal of the year in the Chinese hotel Metrics Vs Three-Year Average Growth, Q2/2018 market came from Vanke’s purchase of Banyan MARKET TRENDS Tree’s portfolio in three cities in western China Glamping - a portmanteau between “glamour” 30.0% (one in Chengdu, one in Dali, Yunnan, and one and “camping”, is beginning to take hold across in Lijiang, Yunnan) for a total consideration of China, as white-collar workers in polluted big 20.0% RMB1,348 million. Recently Vanke has been cities are looking to get out and reconnect shifting its focus to the residential leasing with nature. Glamping sites are popping up in 10.0% market, but the developer’s purchase of Banyan faraway places in Yunnan, Gansu, and Inner Tree’s high-end hotel portfolio shows a further Mongolia.
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