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World Bank Document Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR0000874 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IBRD-46090 TF-56801) ON A Public Disclosure Authorized LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 64.50 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR A SYR DARYA CONTROL AND NORTHERN ARAL SEA PHASE-1 PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized June 21, 2011 Sustainable Development Department Central Asia Country Unit Europe Central Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective June 21, 2011) Currency Unit = Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) KZT 1.00 = US$0.0070 US$1.00 = KZT 145.57 FISCAL YEAR ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ASBP Aral Sea Basin Program M&E Monitoring and Evaluation BCG Basin Consultative Group MOA Ministry of Agriculture BVO Basin Water Authority MNREP Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection CAS Country Assistance Strategy MTR Mid Term Review CPAR Country Procurement Assessment Report NAS Northern Aral Sea CWR Committee for Water Resources of MOA NGO Non Governmental Organization EA Environmental Assessment O&M Operations and Maintenance EC-IFAS Executive Committee of the Interstate PAD Project Appraisal Report Fund on the Aral Sea EMP Environmental Management Plan PDO Project Development Objective FM Financial Management PHRD Japan Policy and Human Resources Development GIS Geographic Information Systems PIU Project Implementation Unit GOK Government of Kazakhstan PMU Project Management Unit ICC Inter-ministerial Coordinating Committee PPF Project Preparation Facility ICR Implementation Completion Report PSC Project Steering Committee ICWC Interstate Commission for Water SA Social Assessment Coordination IP Implementation Progress SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization IPOE Independent Panel of Experts SEA Social and Economic Assessment ISR Implementation Status and Results Report SYNAS Darya Control and Northern Aral Syr Sea JSDF Japan Social Development Fund UNDP United Nations Development Program LAS Larger Southern Aral Sea UNEP United Nations Environment Program Vice President: Philippe LeHouerou Country Director: Motoo Konishi Sector Manager: Dina Umali-Deininger Project Team Leader: Ahmed Shawky ICR Team Leader: Ahmed Shawky REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN SYR DARYA CONTROL AND NORTHERN ARAL SEA PHASE-1 PROJECT CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information B. Key Dates C. Ratings Summary D. Sector and Theme Codes E. Bank Staff F. Results Framework Analysis G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs H. Restructuring I. Disbursement Graph 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design............................................... 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes……………………………...6 3. Assessment of Outcomes .......................................................................................... 13 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome......................................................... 16 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ..................................................... 18 6. Lessons Learned........................................................................................................ 21 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners........... 22 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing.......................................................................... 23 Annex 2. Outputs by Component.................................................................................. 24 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ................................................................. 32 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes............. 36 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ........................................................................... 38 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results................................................... 41 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ..................... 42 Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders....................... 51 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents ...................................................................... 52 MAP No. IBRD 312428 A. Basic Information Syr Darya Control & Country: Kazakhstan Project Name: Northern Aral Sea Phase I Project Project ID: P046045 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-46090,TF-56801 ICR Date: 06/29/2011 ICR Type: Core ICR REPUBLIC OF Lending Instrument: SIL Borrower: KAZAKHSTAN Original Total USD 64.5M Disbursed Amount: USD 62.4M Commitment: Revised Amount: USD 62.4M Environmental Category: A Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Agriculture Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 11/27/1996 Effectiveness: 04/08/2002 Appraisal: 01/29/2001 Restructuring(s): Approval: 06/05/2001 Mid-term Review: 10/15/2005 07/31/2004 Closing: 02/28/2007 12/31/2010 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Moderate Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Performance: Performance: i C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No None at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any Quality of No None time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before Satisfactory Closing/Inactive status: D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Animal production 1 32 Central government administration 4 4 Flood protection 29 29 Irrigation and drainage 66 35 Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Biodiversity 17 17 Infrastructure services for private sector development 17 17 Rural services and infrastructure 33 33 Water resource management 33 33 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Philippe H. Le Houerou Johannes F. Linn Country Director: Motoo Konishi Dennis N. de Tray Sector Manager: Dina Umali-Deininger Joseph R. Goldberg Project Team Leader: Ahmed Shawky M. Abdel Ghany Masood Ahmad ICR Team Leader: Ahmed Shawky M. Abdel Ghany ICR Primary Author: Michael J. Sandoz F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) 1. Sustaining and increasing agriculture (and livestock) and increasing fisheries production in the Syr Darya basin; and ii 2. Securing the existence of Northern Aral Sea and improving the ecological/environmental conditions in the delta area and around the sea leading to improved human and animal health and biodiversity. Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Formally Actual Value Values (from Revised Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value approval Target Completion or documents) Values Target Years Sustaining and increasing agriculture (and livestock) and increasing fisheries Indicator 1 : production in Syr Darya basin. 2650 tons of fish caught in the NAS Insignificant amount of in 2009 (excluding freshwater fish Production of informal catch); production and no fresh water fish Value water supply to sturgeon and caviar about 700 tons per quantitative or irrigated and production. Depressed year, 100 tons of Qualitative) livestock areas crop production in sturgeon and 10 reestablished; irrigated lands and low tons of caviar. livestock crop yields. production increased by 40% Date achieved 03/05/2001 08/31/2017 11/19/2010 Rice area went from 58,500 ha 2001 to 73,300 ha in 2009, but this cannot be Comments attributed only to SYNAS. Crop production depends not only on water (incl. % availability but also on irrigation, agronomic and marketing systems (hence achievement) requiring projects like IDIP2). Securing the existence of Northern Aral Sea and improving the Indicator 2 : ecological/environmental conditions in the delta area and around the sea leading to improved human and animal health and biodiversity. Target met and often exceeded. Water salinity in NAS Salinity levels was about 25 g/l. Air and throughout the soil salinity was high, Water salinity NAS have dropped Value negatively impacting reduced to 15 g/l, to 10g/l in 2010 quantitative or population and animal improvements in (about half of 2001 Qualitative) health and negatively air and soil value) thanks to 4 impacting the natural salinity. billion m3 of water. environment and Reported improved biodiversity. fauna and flora by local residents Date achieved 03/05/2001 08/31/2011 11/19/2010 Comments There are many media reports that describe the dramatic impact on people, flora iii (incl. % and fauna. achievement) (b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s) Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised approval Completion or Target Values documents) Target Years Major bottlenecks in Syr Darya's carrying capacity removed (e.g. at Chardara Indicator 1 : dam, Aitek, Kyzylorda, and Aklak); Target met. Aitek weir and rehab of other structures increased winter Syr Darya capacity carrying capacity of A number of bottlenecks increased during Syr Darya to Value severely decreasing the winter to 700 cms, 700m3/sec, (quantitative
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