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September 1998 I Vol. 75, No. 9

COVER COLUMNS

Focus ON DIPLOMACY AND THE MILITARY PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 18 / You CALL THIS A REVOLUTION? The FSO as Military Expert High tech may be launching more than By Dan Geisler one “Revolution in Military Affairs.” By Christopher Gunther SPEAKING OUT / 15 The Foreign Service’s Own Catch-22 24 / DIPLOMATIC CONSEQUENCES By Martin G. Brennan OF THE COMING RMA When the U.S. is unrivalled POSTCARD FROM AJBROAD / 56 militarily, who needs allies? Genghis Khan’s Ancient Capital By Rachel Bronson and Dan Goitre By Susan E. Stayer

34 / THE REAL “A” TEAM U.S. Special Operations Forces are active around the world. By Jon Gundersen and Stephen Howard 40 / DIPLOMACY, FORCE AND THE DIPLOMAT-WARRIOR We Mourn Our Losses The use of force may not be fashionable, but the U.S. needs As this issue of the Foreign Service diplomats with military savvy. Journal was going to press, we received By Howard K. Walker the terrible news of the August 7 bombings of the U.S. embassies in FEATURE Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam. 44 / THE SENATE CONFIRMATION GAME You can’t leave home without it — so here’s AFSA mourns the loss of the embassy how you get it. A Senate staffer’s inside view. employees and many other people By Daniel Fisk who were killed by the blasts. We

DEPARTMENTS extend our sympathies to the families and friends of those who were killed, 7 /LETTERS and we hope for the recovery of the 12 / CLIPPINGS many who were injured. 50 / BOOKS 55 / INDEX TO ADVERTISERS

Cover and inside Must by Peter Lacalamita

THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS THORKICNQRRVLCE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0015-7279), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published _I_J o I it \ A i monthly by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit organization. Material appearing Editor Editorial Board herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent the views of the Journal, the BOB GULDIN EDWARD MARKS, Chairman Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries are invited. Journal subscription: AFSA Members - $9.50 included in Managing Editor ELIZABETH SPIRO CLARK annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical KATHLEEN CURRIE MITCHELL A. COHN postage paid at Manchester, N.H., and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Assistant Editor THEODORE CHAIC EVA-LOTTA JANSSON Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information AUREUUS FERNANDEZ Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising Advertising b Circulation DAVID I. HITCHCOCK Manager inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein does not imply the endorsement of the services ED MILTENBERCER KATHERINE INEZ LEE or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. E-MAIL: [email protected]. WEB: www.afsa.org. TELE¬ MARY LEYVELLEN AFSA NEWS Editor PHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service Association, 1998. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address WESLEY ANN GODARD ROBERTA MAHONEY Editorial Intern MARK MATTHEWS changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W.. Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. MARK SAWCHUK CAROLINE MEIRS

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4 FOREIGN SERVICE J O V RN AU S EPT EM B ER 1998 PRESIDENT’S VIEWS The FSO as Military Expert

BY DAN GEISLER

T|his issue of die Foreign Service which of course creates staffing gaps. Journal focuses on the role of Consequently, PM has brought in die military in foreign relations. The cadre of highly qualified Civil Service person¬ Although our foreign policy managers nel. The ongoing “virtual integration” don’t always agree with their armed Foreign Service of die Arms Control and Disarmament services colleagues, we are bound Agency (ACDA), which had very few together not only by our common goal political-military Foreign Service people, has caused a — safeguarding Americas national further decline in the relative number security — but also by healthy State- experts is on the of Foreign Service officers engaged in Defense Department institutional political-military affairs. links. We share personnel through the wane, but we can This is a workforce management exchange of detailees. Our people train concern. Part of the responsibility lies together at DOD s war colleges and in change that with PM management, who need to States Senior Seminar. We work take seriously their staffing responsibil¬ togedrer on country teams abroad. ities. For PM and the Foreign Service, These institutional links foster the per¬ that means having the front office sonal relationships that are vital to pol¬ engaged in both recruiting and in “out- icy-making. placing,” i.e., getting good follow-on There’s a fascinating account of die training at die National War College or assignments for current mid former relationship between military action a detail to DOD provides some of diat. staff. It means injecting PM into the and foreign policy in the opening chap¬ But diey do not create Foreign Service assignments process by laying claim to ters of Dick Holbrooke’s new book To officers with die depdi that conies only jobs abroad with high pol-mil content. Enel a War. He recounts die tortuous from working political-military issues Part of die responsibility lies also process of deciding whether to bomb over time. witii central system personnel man¬ the Bosnian Serbs in order to create die We will find it increasingly difficult agers. They need to ensure diat a con¬ conditions necessary for substantive to play a primary role in national securi¬ solidated PM-ACDA provides for diplomatic negotiations. There’s a ty issues if we are incapable of fielding a Foreign Service personnel a clear telling lesson for the Foreign Service in credible political-military team. At pre¬ career path diat leads to senior policy that account. It is impossible for the sent, die State Departments cadre of positions. AFSA has spoken on several Foreign Service to lead an intelligent Foreign Service political-military occasions widi die upper echelons of policy debate on issues of crucial impor¬ experts is on the wane. That hampers PM, ACDA mid Personnel about the tance to our national security unless we our ability to shape policies diat direcdy need to preserve Foreign Service exper¬ have a cadre of people with experience affect America’s national security. tise in pol-mil affairs. Failing to do so in die military aspects of diose policies. I joined the Foreign Service not erodes our ability to meet die first stat¬ The Foreign Service needs people who that long ago — in 1985. But my more ed goal of the State Department’s understand weapon systems, battlefield experienced colleagues tell me that tire Strategic Plan for International Affairs: strategy, force structure and die internal Bureau of Political-Military Affairs “Secure peace, deter aggression, pre¬ organization of die Pentagon. A year of (PM) was once a premier Washington vent mid defuse mid manage crises, halt billet. That is clearly not die case die proliferation of weapons of mass Dan Geisler is president of the today. PM finds it harder mid harder destruction, mid advmice anus control American Foreign Service Association. to attract Foreign Service personnel, mid disarmament.” ■

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6 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RNAL/S E PT E M B E R 199S government employees, even those on economic growth. Perhaps you send a Global Economics Happens die ground, can ever hope to match high-ranking official to tell the leaders Upon completing Robert Fauver’s private investment firms in terms of of Country X that, even diough then- article, “What Didn’t We Know, and access to information and resources to economy has been growing at over When Didn’t We Know It?” (May analyze that information. It is equally twice the rate that ours has over the 1998), I was left with two questions: Is unrealistic to assume that diose same past several years, we think you are fac¬ there some way the foreign affairs government employees would some¬ ing a crash, so here’s a list of potential¬ community could have predicted the how be able to take die lead in pre¬ ly- destabilizing structural adjustments Asian economic crisis? And if so, could dicting economic changes and control¬ we want you to make right now? action have been taken to prevent the To claim after die fact that people crisis from occurring? I think die weren’t aware of the various institution¬ answer to both questions is no. al quirks within the countries in crisis, What reason is there to believe drat which are now being blamed with the a group of government economic ana¬ benefit ofhindsight as the causes for the lysts, even widi unlimited resources, crisis, is disingenuous. Astute investors could have come up widi an accurate were well aware of the cronyism, forecast of how diis crisis was going to opaque banking practices, accounting occur and play itself out? Profit-seeking shenanigans and other problems. The companies spend millions of dollars problem is that all these quirks eveiy year collecting and analyzing appeared for quite some time to be at eveiy last bit of available economic data. least in part responsible for the creation They also have hundreds of researchers of tremendous amounts of wealth. working dieir contacts in government The globalization and deregulation and private industry' for any additional of the world’s economy is a matter of information that might give them even public policy in die current administra¬ tire slightest competitive advantage in tion. But a globalized, deregulated predicting economic changes. And economy is bound to fluctuate in despite their best efforts, even the most unpredictable and sometimes quite successful firms turn out to have ling diose changes for the public good. negative ways, and it is unrealistic to guessed right only slightly more often Still, for the sake of argument, assume diat anyone can predict or con¬ tiian they have guessed wrong. assume a crack team of economic trol its various twists and turns. The It is not realistic to assume that U.S. experts could somehow come up with best we can hope for — and tiiis is rea¬ overwhelming evidence tiiat the econ¬ son enough for a robust corps of The Foreign Service journal welcomes omy of Country X was about to fall Foreign Service economic officers — your signed letters to the editor. Please through the floor. Then what? Any is that we are ready and able to step in mail letters to the Journal, 2101 E St., type of official warning would only trig¬ with effective corrective measures NW, Washington, D.C., 20037; fax to ger the collapse you are seeking to when situations occur tiiat pose a (202) 338-8244 or send via e-mail to avoid. Congress certainly won’t threat to the entire system. [email protected]. Letters, which are approve funds to rescue a country cur¬ John A. Wecker subject to editing, should include full rently basking in the glory of its 10th Foreign Service officer name, title and post, address and day- straight year of seven per cent-plus Osaka-Kobe, Japan time telephone number.

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 7 LETTERS NEW FROM PRINCETON ARCHITECTURAL PRESS

American Freedom, Disorder That Was Burke Elbrick Ellen Frosts trenchant analysis of cul¬ A brief comment on the article in tural and economic globalization, “When the April issue, “Celluloid Cultures Collide” (FSJ, June 1997), while Diplomacy” by Michael Canning, brilliant, contained an important flaw. regarding a favorable portrayal of Frost writes that the Japanese (and “Charles Burke Elbrick” in a Brazilian others) are repelled by our “disorderly movie. In the 1950s, my first assign¬ society.” The American scene is ment in the State Department was in tumultuous, largely due to struggles for EUR (Italian desk) when Burke recognition of equality, freedoms, and Elbrick was assistant secretary. I have civil rights that are now (diank God) never heard him referred to as constitutionally protected. Japan has no Charles, as the article and accompa¬ civil protection for its minorities. Groups nying photo do. like the hisabetsu buraku, die Ainu, and As I was a junior officer, my The Architecture of Diplomacy: ethnic Koreans routinely suffer severe encounters with Burke Elbrick were Building America s Embassies discrimination. infrequent, usually accompanying a

BY JANE C. LOEFFLER You can be sure diat Chinese parents visiting Italian dignitary and doing in Indonesia pray that dieir kids will memcons of the discussions. Yet he The Architecture of Diplomacy reveals the enjoy the rights of full citizenship that never failed to remember my name, interplay of architecture, politics, and power in America's embassy-building program. From its every American child enjoys. though I didn’t have opportunity to inception following World War I, through its The Japanese recoil in horror at test his ability to spell it. He was heyday during the Cold War period, to its cur¬ Americas ills, drug abuse, violence, racial indeed, as the article states, tall, soft- rent condition under the spectre of terrorism, the book traces the history of a program tensions, and otiier “social indicators” diat spoken, elegantly dressed and with a plagued by political infighting yet of immense “remain dismal.” Most world-aware conservative manner. He was my early symbolic importance. Americans (including FSOs) are cog¬ idol of the diplomat I wanted to " The Architecture of Diplomacy is a splendidly nizant of die global nature of diese prob¬ become. presented treatise on both subjects." lems. Americas problems are trumpeted Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan Paul K Stahnke around die world by CNN, CNBC, die Retired FSO "From the petty jealousies on Capitol Hill to the fine points of modernist design, Loeffler's BBC, and on die Internet. Americas McLean, Va. effortlessly erudite and highly readable friends and enemies may see diese issues account explains how our government has as symptoms of the breakdown of tried—with mixed success—to represent us abroad in steel and stone." America. But die abundant media cover¬ All My Children Howard Fineman age and public debate display our free¬ I consider myself to have been slan¬ Chief Political Correspondent, Newsweek doms of speech and the press, and we dered in the letters-to-the-editor col¬

6x9 inches, hardcover wouldn’t have it any odier way. umn of die April FSJ, where retired 406 pages, 154 black-and-white images We need not berate the Japanese for FSO Mary C. Smidi wrote, “I cannot $27.50 trade imbalances and economic melt¬ join Mr. Bowen in his concern about an ADST-DACOR Diplomats and Diplomacy book down. They are doing that very well die economic effects of immigration on themselves: todays news is of ‘our white children.’ ”

AVAILABLE IN YOUR LOCAL BOOKSTORE, OR FROM: Hashimotos resignation. We can stand What I actually wrote, in my letter

NORTH AMERICA: by diem as allies and trading partners in the February Journal, was, “One Princeton Architectural Press while remembering, and being proud of, explanation [for low inflation] is that c/o Chronicle Books, 85 Second Street the fact that Americas strength is in its die current massive waves of immi¬ San Francisco, CA 94105 USA tel (800) 722-6657, fax (800) 858-7787 diversity, while die weakness of Japan — grants are depressing wages not only of and so many other countries — is in its REST OF THE WORLD: our native minorities, but of our white Princeton Architectural Press ossified monoculturalism. children, as well.” c/o Birkhauser Verlag, PO Box 133 Mary A. Temus A. Dane Bowen Jr. CH-4010 Basel, Switzerland FS family member tel (41) (61) 205-0707, fax (41) (61) 205-0792 Retired FSO Vienna, Austria Alexandria, VA please visit our website at www.papress.com

8 FOREIGN SERVICE JO URNAL/SEPTEMBER 1998 LETTERS

Toujours audace! make the crucial difference, probably several days, likely would not have I read with interest your interview cost much in terms of American lives with Larry Eagleburger in the June or dissolved the temporary coalition. 1998 edition of the Foreign Service It probably would have been over Journal. While I have a great deal of before our Arab allies had time to lack respect for Eagleburger and his up a fuss. impressive career, I differ with his What is frustrating for me person¬ take on our decision not to go after ally as an American who has served the Iraqi Republican Guard in the late around the world for Iris government stages of Desert Storm. Like a lot of over the past 30 years, stalling as a present and former U.S. policy-mak¬ soldier in Vietnam and then as a ers, he retreats behind a sophistry Foreign Service officer, is our lack of when asked why we didn’t go all the instinct for the jugular. We risk way into Baghdad to remove Saddam American lives around the world and Hussein. His main retort is: “If we had spend billions upon billions of dollars then taken a deep breath and said, on defense. Then, when payoff time OK, now we’re going to go after “Service is my comes, too often we back off. Oh, Saddam, first, we would have been in 99 there are always good reasons in hind¬ real trouble with our allies. Secondly, Business sight: the objective, the feelings of our if you shift the objective in this way, allies, uncertain outcomes, etc. We we would have needed more force, Licensed real estate should not commit easily to military and how long would it have taken?” force but, once we do, our policy- broker in Virginia and This argument doesn’t hold up, in makers need to recall that simple Maryland; certified by my opinion, if you look at the facts of motto from the U.S. Army Armor the situation at that time (early National Trust for School at Fort Knox, Ky.: Audace, tou¬ February 1991). First, the immediate Historic Preservation; jours audace! target was not the removal of Saddam Joseph Schreiber and certified buyer Hussein, although that probably U.S. Embassy Madrid would have followed sooner or later. agent. 15 years abroad Fact: we literally had the Republican as career FS and Guard in our gunsights, when Dick World Bank spouse Cheney and Colin Powell persuaded Rating FSOs Objectively President George Bush to “end the After I wrote about systemic prob¬ provide experience for slaughter.” Fact: we thereby let that lems within USIA (FSJ, December international and elite military unit, chief support of ’97) colleagues have asked what I domestic relocations. Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, would do to correct these deficien¬ escape relatively unscathed — not as a cies. What follows is a modest first credible military threat to the coali¬ step, which should be applicable to MARGHI BARONE FAUSS, tion anymore, but certainly capable of other foreign affairs agencies as well. ASSOCIATE BROKER, oppressing Iraqi opposition to Let’s replace the current efficiency (703) 790-9090, EXT. 243

Saddam — thereby prolonging his report system of Foreign Service eval¬ (800) 548-9080, EXT. 243 uation with a yearly written and oral hold on power and making necessary FAX: (703) 370-1410 an expensive and long-term commit¬ exercise, given the same day world¬ E-MAIL: [email protected] ment of U.S. forces in the Gulf. wide. Most questions would be specif¬ Second, Eagleburger makes it ic to each specialty, some to be sound as if going after Saddam would answered orally on tape, others writ¬ have been a major policy shift endan¬ ten — on computers, of course. The gering our painfully-pieced-together diskettes and tapes would be identi¬ alliance. But the time involved to fied by number only and reviewed by

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 9 SEVEN MINUTES TO STATE DEPARTMENT LETTERS

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x Essay an Essay? The Journal is interested in a new genre: the book review essay. Made famous by The New York Review of Books, this form includes reviews of several current books about the Contact: Dana Martens, Diplomatic Sales Director same topic within one thoughtful essay. To try your hand, contact VOLVO MARTENS 202-537-3000 Managing Editor Kathleen Currie at CARS OF WASHINGTON, INC. Fax 202-537-1826 (202) 338-4045, ext. 524 or by e- 4800 WISCONSIN AVE. WASH.. DC 20016 U.S.A.’s Largest Diplomatic Dealer mail at [email protected] /

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SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 11 CLIPPINGS

NOT So SAFE AT Too MUCH STATE DEPARTMENT INTELLIGENCE, NOT Although the State Department’s exte¬ ENOUGH SMARTS rior may make it seem like a sturdy fortress, its a lot less secure than it looks. In the wake of the U.S. failure to According to the findings of investigators predict India’s nuclear tests last May, from the General Accounting Office, the lots of analysts have been looking at State Departments physical and comput¬ what’s wrong with the government’s "Reports of er security protocols are both ineffectual intelligence apparatus. John Hillen, attacks against in keeping out would-be infiltrators, writing in the August 3 National reported the June 22 issue of die Federal Review, says the problem is over¬ international Times. reliance on satellites and not enough aid workers The GAO investigators first broke old-fashioned spying. through physical security in the State “Of the $30 billion per year the U.S. have become Department building complex before spends on intelligence, less than 10 per¬ almost routine tackling computer and network safe¬ cent is spent on ‘human intelligence,’ ” guards. The results of the tests were less reports Hillen, who is an Olin Fellow at ... The recent than encouraging: Investigators found the Council on Foreign Relations and a spate of and collected passwords displayed on National Review contributing editor. deserted computer terminals, managed to The rest goes for high-tech spy satel¬ killings of UN crack passwords on others, and even lites, sensors and the like. [civilian] staff acquired “systems-administrator-level “The CIA with almost 17,000 access” on some machines. One staffer employees has only half the budget of in Burundi, even disclosed her computer password to the National Reconnaisance Office, Tajikistan and investigators posing as computer mainte¬ which has fewer than 1,000 employees. Afghanistan nance workers, giving them access to files And only one in 20 CIA staffers is in the such as financial information, travel business of’ working with real people, served as a arrangements, personnel records, e-mail writes Hillen. messages and performance appraisals. “During the crisis in Central Africa, tragic “Unfortunately, our penetration tests in which the U.S. intervened militarily, reminder of the were largely successful,” said Gene all our high-tech devices could not Dodoro, GAO assistant comptroller gen¬ locate more than one million refugees dangers facing eral. “[The tests] demonstrated that in the jungle highlands,” Hillen com¬ the staff. ” ' States computer systems and the infor¬ plains. “A good conversation with any mation contained within them are very one of a thousand refugee workers — HENNADIY susceptible to hackers, terrorists, or other could have given a government opera¬ l not i:\KO ft CHAIM:) unauthorized individuals seeking to dam¬ tive half the information the U.S. need¬ age State operations or reap financial ed to address the situation.” PRESIDENT or THE gain.” GAO recommended that State Hillen’s parting shot: If we can’t pen¬ U.N. GENERAL draw up plans for new security systems etrate the nuclear intentions of India, a and policies, install a central security unit, relatively open society, “how will we ASSEMHI.Y. Jl 'EY 2S. and assign a chief information officer to ever learn about the intentions of Iran, monitor the effectiveness of the system. North Korea, Libya, Syria or Iraq?”

12 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/S EFT E M B E R 1998 CLIPPINGS

SDI COMEBACK: and is not permitted under the ABM Treaty. At some point, the Senate will be A RUSH TO FAILURE? asked to approve those new agreements, at The United States seems to be moving which time U.S. missile defense plans may ahead with plans to deploy defenses get a thorough debate. against ballistic missiles, despite testing programs that are “unblemished by suc¬ cess,” writes John Pike in the April 1998 LIVING IN A UNI- YEARS AGO Arms Control Today. Pike is director of the Space Policy Project at the Federation of MULTIPOLAR WORLD “What is the main American Scientists. Since the fall of the Soviet Union and objective of our foreign Even though an array of Army, Navy the bipolar Cold War system in 1991, policy, of our government and Air Force anti-missile weapons has international relations theorists have itself? Many say peace, failed to score any intercepts, the Clinton debated whether the emergent system prosperity, a high standard administration proposes continued fund¬ should be classified as unipolar, multipolar of living. But there is some¬ ing. Pike suggests that the administration or some new category. But in a lecture thing we value more than has moved closer to congressional delivered at die American Enterprise life itself. That something is Republicans on missile defense “to deny Institute in Washington, Samuel P. individual freedom. We opponents a campaign issue.” Huntington argued diat its more useful to have sacrificed peace and In the early 1980s, President Reagan describe our current situation as a uni-mul- prosperity for it more than made headlines with his plans for a Strategic tipolar world. Huntington is a professor of once. We have never yet Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars) that government at Harvard and a member of sacrificed it to secure would someday be able to block incoming AEIs Council of Academic Advisors. peace, or our property and Soviet missiles. With the disappearance of According to Huntington, a uni-multi- lives,” wrote Clarence K. the Soviet threat, and wit] i budget con¬ polar world is “one in which resolution of Streit in the July 1948 straints, the Clinton administration scaled key international issues requires action by Journal. down and renamed the effort. Now called die single superpower plus some combina¬ “Twice already has the tile Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, tion of other major states.” The global generation fooled itself it received $3.7 billion in fiscal 1998. power structure of die system is four¬ and all the world into The BMDO formed a study group to tiered: Power is concentrated at the top thinking that we aimed at evaluate current systems for a national mis¬ with die United States, the only superpow¬ peace rather than free¬ sile defense, headed by retired Air Force er, and decreases at each subsequent level. dom. Twice the result was General Larry Welch. But when that The second level consists of major region¬ not peace but world at group issued its report in February 1998, al powers, who are the dominant players in war — with ourselves the news was bad. The report said that specific regions of the world. The third included when dangers to under political pressure to quickly deploy level consists of secondary regional powers, freedom grew great new systems after insufficient testing, the often in conflict widi the major regional enough to bring out our BMDO was risking a “rush to failure.” powers; and at die fourth level are the true values. ... Let us have Prospects for a U.S. missile defense are remaining, more peripheral nations. no more confusion on our also clouded by the 1972 Anti-Ballistic- But while the concept may seem easy main objective in our own Missile Treaty, which prohibits any nation¬ enough to elucidate, it brings with it a num¬ minds, and leave no wide defense. Last year, the United States ber of implications for die United States. doubts at all about it any¬ and Russia negotiated some new “demar¬ Such a system, Huntington argues, is inher¬ where on earth.” cation agreements,” which clarify what is ently unstable because die supeqxiwer and

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 13 C LI P P IN G S

die major powers each view die system mail letters to neutral European coun¬ differendy — die former as unipolar, tries. A Swiss paper eventually caught die second as multipolar — as each “The Diplomatic on and wrote stories speculating about a pulls in opposite directions. This ten¬ coup attempt. Germany issued a state¬ sion causes fear and resentment among Service is greatly ment saying die stamps were false. die major powers, which over time underpaid. It is By then, however, die stoiy was so could become dissent or even open widespread that die idea that the opposition to die United States. well known that stamps had been forged by die British ‘The highest level of response would a man without government was harder to believe than be collective counteraction, die forma¬ that Himmler was planning a coup, tion of an anti-hegemonic coalition,” private means, according to a wartime British memo. said Huntington. While skeptics may whatever his ridicule die idea, die formation of die European Union and its adoption of a ability, cannot A FRESH LOOK AT uniform currency certainly takes on a accept the more new implication in light of this theory. THE COLD WAR important posts Nuclear weapons stabilized the of Ambassador Cold War, but probably helped to pro¬ How HITLER MIGHT long it as well, says Yale University' his¬ or Minister." torian John Lewis Gaddis. Writing for HAVE EXPIRED Foreign Policy Research Institutes Though assassination of heads of Footnotes, Gaddis says die time is ripe — CM tnu:s Enxs Hi GHES, state has been officially frowned upon to re-examine the entire history of the by die United States in recent years, SECRETARY OF STATE, Cold War. no such rules applied in World War II. In the 1970s and 1980s, “die Soviet WROTE COXGHESS /\ 1922. In fact, the British government Union and its allies managed to squan¬ recendy released a report detailing its der dieir ideological appeal,” Gaddis WWI I plots to kill Hitler. Schemes said. At the same time, dieir economic included a sniper, explosives, a train British saw Hitler as a potential sniper performance was worse than that of derailment and poison, reported target because die dictator insisted the capitalist countries. 'W hat nuclear Associated Press writer Robert Barr that his guards stay out of sight. weapons did, then, was to conceal the July 23. However, the plots were never •Bombing Berehtesgaden and hav¬ condition of an aging, formidably implemented, mid Hitler killed him¬ ing paratroopers kill survivors; aimed, but internally deteriorating self as Berlin fell in April 1945. •Derailing Hitlers train by blowing state.” “Operation Foxley” began in June up the tracks as the train went through The fact that the Soviet Union of 1944 with a tip from an agent that a tunnel, or throwing a suitcase bomb “abruptly and completely collapsed, Hiller easily could be lolled on a trip to at it from a platform; or despite the fact that its military France. Both then-British Foreign •Poisoning Hitler through the strengdi remained unimpaired” indi¬ Secretary Anthony Eden and Prime water supply on Iris train. The plan was cates diat Western analysts “over many Minister Winston Churchill were in on to have one of the French women who years ignored the non-military compo¬ the affair, but no action was taken. The worked as cleaners cooperate. nents of power.” British Special Operations Executive, The British also tried to stir dissen¬ Now we can see dial die role of ideas however, continued plotting assassina¬ sion within the Nazi regime by forging in the Cold War, “die comparative con¬ tion alternatives. They included: a stamp with die face of SS chief tent of diese ideologies,” got insufficient •Killing Hitler at his Bavarian I leinrich Himmler on it. The idea was attention, Gaddis says. The Marxist- mountain retreat, Berehtesgaden. He to start rumors that Himmler was plan¬ Leninist ideology “was a romantic could either have been shot with a rifle ning a coup against Hider and had rather tiian a realist view of die world.” during Ins morning walk to his tea¬ ordered the stamps to be issued after And in an audioritarian state, when con¬ house, or with a bazooka as he rode die coup. ditions changed, there was no way to back up the mountain in his car. The British agents used the stamps to adjust a rigid worldview. ■

14 FOREIGN SERVICE J O V RN A L! S E PT E M B E R I99S SPEAKING OUT The Foreign Services Own Catch-22

BY MARTIN G. BRENNAN

Catch-22, Joseph Hellers hilari¬ shortages if summers were somnolent. ous satire on army life during But the work doesn’t abate in Ethiopia, World War II, captured the Around me I see nor in other posts, just because it’s pitfalls of all bureaucracies. The novel summer. Delegations come and go, also gave our lexicon a useful word to vision that fails political developments need to be fol¬ describe the inanities of systems that lowed and unexpected crises intrude in allow well-intentioned individuals to the logic test and die eveiyday pace. For example, march forth in bone-headed ways clashes on the border between wreaking havoc on hapless victims. well- in ten tinned Ethiopia and Eritrea won’t stop Take, for example, General because die State Department has Peckern, one of Catch-22’s more individuals in a declared the summer its sole transfer memorable characters. He decreed season. As a result, FSOs find diem- that all tents should he pitched in a position to make selves trying to juggle too many fiery straight line with their flaps open bowling balls for too many hours. toward tire Washington Monument, their misguided Security lapses crop up and cables even though that edifice was a conti¬ from Washington requesting informa¬ nent away. Unfortunately, General views prevail. tion go unanswered. Worst of all, Peckern was in a position to make his opportunities to advance U.S. diplo¬ vision reality. The men under his com¬ macy are missed because we are con¬ mand paid die price for his inanity. stantly reacting and have no time for Catch-22 is alive and well in the creative thinking. Foreign Service. Around me I see State Department regional bureaus vision that fails the logic test and well- September. I’m willing to bet that the do not have enough money to meet the intentioned individuals in a position to creators of this innovation guaranteed burgeoning demand for temporary make dieir misguided views prevail, that it would bring savings, efficiency personnel, so temporary staff is provid¬ even though the path ahead is littered and order to die Foreign Service. ed only to those overseas posts already with “wrong way” signs. Instead, it brought chaos. For the under water, not tiiose merely sinking. The summer transfer season and second year in a row, Embassy Addis Obviously, this system means more die Mission Performance Plan are Ababa, where I am deputy chief of work for staff who are not transferring, cases in point. mission, will be crippled by yawning but it also takes a toll on FSOs who are Several years ago, the luminaries in staff gaps from May dirough October. transferring and trying to take annual personnel announced the dawn of a For two months this summer we will leave at the same time. It pits employ¬ bold, new era. Henceforth, everyone have only one office manager for the ees against management and post who was due to be transferred from entire mission. For six weeks our con¬ against post in a losing game, as every¬ one job to another would do so in sular section will have only one officer one tries to cover their gaps. summer, between June and who can make decisions on visas din¬ Embassies switch into a “hell no, ing one of die busiest times of die year. he/she can’t go” mode as drey try to Martin G. Brennan is deputy chief In June and July our political/econom¬ hold on to staff. Families deserve well- of mission in Addis Ababa. He has ic and administrative sections will have earned leave, departing FSOs need to served in Bangkok, Lisbon, Taipei, only half tiieir normal number of staff. move on to their next assignments, yet Ouagadougou and Kigali. The embassy could live witii tiiese fairness requires that diose still in die

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 15 S P E A KING Our

saddle aren’t trapped in an endless leave, the Department of State increas¬ which ranked low on my list of exciting cycle of 12-hour work days. es office stress and lowers morale. work challenges, required overseas Things are so bad that a highly The good news is that new minds in posts to define and prioritize objectives respected assistant secretary of State personnel have recognized that the and set goals to determine if we were recently told our embassy and others to summer transfer season is a major prob¬ progressing merrily down the policy take a “hard look” at staff transfer dates lem and have taken steps to reinstate a path. Like paying taxes, it had to be and leave plans. The implication, in second season. This will take time, since done. Catch-22 speak, was that officers would it always takes longer to recover from a According to its previews, the new not be accompanying their families for bad decision than to implement a new Mission Performance Plan would much of their home or annual leave due one. In the meantime, the State somehow allow the Department of to “the needs of the Service.” Some Department could cost-effectively State and its embassies to judge embassies are actually hying to imple¬ increase temporary duty personnel by whether staff time and post resources ment this draconian code, making fam¬ using retired officers and other volun¬ were really supporting foreign policy ilies pay for personnels flawed logic. teers for temporary staffing. objectives. Months drifted by punctu¬ Obviously, any well-run organization Catch-22 also applies to another ated only with occasional chirpy “com¬ requires rigor and professionalism, but recent State Department innovation: ing your way soon” announcements. it shouldn’t abandon common sense. The Mission Performance Plan. After Finally, on March 19 two gargantuan FSOs need to spend time with dieir grappling for several years with the ven¬ cables unveiled the new, improved families, and FS families with school- erable Mission Program Plan, “a vital MPP on tire eve of performance evalu¬ age children can only take advantage of document,” last summer amid great ation season, when conscientious their rest and recuperation leave during fanfare State replaced it with the supervisors devote inordinate energy the summer months. By forcing FSOs Performance Plan. to evaluating those they supervise. to buck the system to use well-earned The now defunct Program Plan, Worse yet, the directions were as con-

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16 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN Ah! S E PT E M B E R 1998 SrEA KING Our

fusing as they were interminable. In a like from three conflicting accounts. In less painful birth next year, but I fear a State Department version of tents fac¬ a final insult, posts were admonished to long, rocky labor. When the Foreign ing die Washington monument, the provide the State Department with a Service was fleshier, maybe such a time- MPP requires substantially more year’s plan no later than April 15. consuming exercise in navel gazing research and writing than did its pre¬ Humors filtered down that those who made sense, but it is hard to imagine decessor. It requires long lines of text filed less-than-satisfactory MPPs that anyone today has time to create, let facing Fogg\' Bottom. would be “held accountable.” alone read, the verbiage of the new, Even worse, the MPPs clunky, The MPP is a poorly conceived, improved MPP. If the challenges of the obstinate computer software, accom¬ poorly timed, poorly written initiative post-Cold War world demand a new panied by a statement that it was “pro¬ that plopped down on embassies world¬ management tool, then the process duced in record time by a hard-work¬ wide and tied us in knots with hours of should be concise and pertinent. ing crew,” did not arrive in Addis frustration and stress. Maybe tight An answer to what the future holds Ababa until early April, on the eve of deadlines forced the MPP progenitors can once again be found in Catch-22. the plans due date. Correcting mis¬ to unleash their offspring too soon. But Eventually Brigadier General Peckem takes and reordering text was as easy as if something is as important as the MPP w~as placed under Iris former subordi- stacking marbles without containers. is supposed to be, it should be done cor¬ nate, Lieutenant General Scheisskopf, In addition, the software was accompa¬ rectly from the start. I invite the creators and die troops were relieved from their nied by a handbook which contradict¬ of the Mission Performance Plan into tent chores. However, Scheisskopf was ed information in earlier cables. The the trenches, where they can experi¬ happiest when his men were marching handbook also provided a look at a ence first-hand what their handiwork in formation. Not going anywhere, just “model MPP,” which left those trying has wrought. Mavbe this would sharpen marching, marching, marching. to draft one feeling like police artists their tliinking. I’d better re-read my Mission trying to guess what a suspect looked The State Department promises a Performance Plan instructions. ■

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SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 17 Focus ON DIPLOMACY AND THE MILITARY

You CALL THIS A REVOLUTION?

HIGH TECHNOLOGY MAY BE LAUNCHING MORE THAN ONE

‘REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS.’

BIJ Christopher Gunther

ince the end of the Cold War, military theorists have focused much attention on the so-called revolution in military affairs (RMA). The swift dispatch of the vaunted Iraqi mili¬ tary during the Gulf War, and in particular the visual impression of the U.S. military as a technological juggernaut, served to accelerate the debate. Talk of a fundamental reordering of the U.S. defense posture and indeed in the basic American approach to war now echoes through the halls of the Pentagon and within the Congress. So what is this debate about? If there is an RMA, what does that mean to the U.S., our allies, and our adversaries? The RMA debate, though it may at first seem abstract and abstruse, is important to the Foreign Service and to

18 FOREIGN SERVICE JO URNA L!SEPTEMBER 1998 Focus

all those who seek to understand From the ‘gunpowder forces. As one might expect, there is no Americas place in the world. After all, easily formula for fusing ideas, organi¬ both the foreign policy community revolution’ to the zations and technology so as to prepare and the military seek to shape the an RMA. Experience shows these world in which the U.S. functions, to ‘nuclear revolution,’ activities often proceed along parallel, defend American interests — though rather than sequential, tracks. of course in different ways. If there RMAs have frequently are, on the near horizon, military RMAS have occurred fre¬ developments looming that could shaken up the quently in history. While his¬ radically change the power relations torians debate the specifics, among nations, diplomats need to art of war. they identify a number of periods know that. where a combatant mastered a new What is a military revolution? form of warfare and achieved a signifi¬ Andrew Krepinevieh has defined it as “what occurs when cant increase in war-making potential, which dien radi¬ the application of new technologies into a significant cally altered the nature of future wars. number of military systems combines with innovative For instance, die introduction of the long bow in die operational concepts and organizational adaptation in a 14th century gave those who mastered its employment a wav that fundamentally alters the character and conduct radical advantage on the battlefield. Battlefields previous¬ of conflict.” The net result of such a revolution is a pro¬ ly dominated by the mounted, armored knight were found increase in the military operational effectiveness of transformed to an arena where die infantry, equipped the nation that lias successfully harnessed the new widi die long bow which could strike at great distances, approach to war. While the frequency and extent of pre- now reigned supreme. vious RMAs is a matter of some contention, it is nonethe¬ The gunpowder revolution of die 15th century, the less clear that such changes have occurred several times mass armies raised by Napoleonic France, and die con¬ in the 20th century. version of wooden sailing ships to steel hulls and steam power are all examples of past RMAs. Doctrine Comes First To be siue, RMAs are complex phenomena, widi mul¬ The intellectual formulation of a new method of war¬ tiple factors influencing dieir outcomes. It was not the fare is tlie single most important component of an RMA. military virtuosity of Napoleon, but radier the French As straightforward as this may seem, the notion is often Revolution, which was the decisive factor tiiat radically forgotten. In the parlance of the military, war-fighting increased the size of the French army, thereby changing doctrine must first be devised. Next, organizational the metiiods of warfare. It was not an emerging new con¬ changes must occur within the military seeking to imple¬ cept of naval warfare which identified a need for a “revo¬ ment a RMA. Grafting new technology to organizations lutionary” means of propulsion for ships which then pro¬ which remain fundamentally unchanged is a prescription duced steam power. Radier, die Industrial Revolution for disaster. Finally, new technologies must be correedy brought about die application of steam power to machin¬ identified and then harnessed to implement die new war- ery, and its subsequent exploitation in war followed com¬ fighting concept. mercial development. The process linking new technolo¬ Again, diis simple proposition is frill of hazards. During gy to the battlefield is rarely obvious to die innovators the 1920s, strategists in many nations recognized tiiat air until they have made their successful breakthrough. power would be critical in future warfare, but few antici¬ Perhaps die most widely recognized RMA of the 20th pated the capacity, range, or power of World War II air century was die German introduction of “blitzkrieg” at the start of die Second World War. The Germans began Christopher Gunther is a colonel in the U.S. Marine with an intellectual formulation of warfare that grew Corps. He wrote this paper while a fellow at the Center for directly from their doctrinal solution to the World War I Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. stalemate of trench warfare. This doctrine, known as infil-

SEPTEM BER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 19 Focus

tration tactics, called for brief, violent A classic RMA was the were employed with such precision. preparation fires designed to disrupt These military thinkers point out that enemy command and control. These ‘blitzhieg,’ which mere possession of new technology is fires were closely followed by specially not sufficient to realize war fighting trained attack groups, known as storm merged the tank and gains; it must be supported by appropri¬ troopers, who led a general offensive ate organizational concepts and units designed to avoid enemy strong points the airplane with a new prepared to exploit its potential. Great and instead seek gaps in enemy posi¬ Britain and Germany both developed tions. Infiltration tactics provided the offensive doctrine. radars optimized for defensive employ¬ intellectual foundation for a new form ment before WW II. The British, under of warfare, and it was this solid doctri¬ Air Vice-Marshal Hugh Dowding’s nal foundation that formed the basis for a radically new for¬ relentless leadership, created an integrated network of mation, the Panzer division. As new technologies emerged, radars, defensive fighter aircraft, and command and con¬ the tank, the airplane, and the radio being foremost, they trol mechanisms which ultimately produced die victory were applied to this new organization to create a Iriglily now referred to as die Battle of Britain. For dieir part, the mobile force of enormous striking power. Mechanization Germans also produced a workable radar, but chose to allowed infiltration attacks to be conducted at tremendous view it as merely a means to replace their ground-based air tempo and depth. These mechanized attacks, known as observer corps. Without the ability to rapidly act on the blitzkrieg, allowed Nazi Germany to conduct a lightning information provided, the technology of die radar was war winch swiftly conquered much of Europe. insufficient by itself to achieve a decisive improvement in capability. Likewise, the superior tank, bodi in numbers Without question, the twentieth century's and capability, belonged to die French in 1940. The most radical new technology of war was the Germans, however, massed their armor in dieir Panzer atomic bomb. Nuclear weapons comprise divisions, employed it within the framework of blitzkrieg, another RMA, but in a narrow, unique sense. Developed and shattered die French army in six weeks. in near total secrecy, the atomic bomb came as a complete surprise to military planners, with only a handful of die RMAs of the Future? most senior commanders even aware of its existence. More Is a revolutionary new fonn of warfare about to dian 50 years after Hiroshima, tiiere remains a valid ques¬ emerge, and render current doctrines, technologies, and tion of whether nuclear weapons can be employed for any organizations as obsolete as the sailing ship in the age of puipose other than total annihilation of an opponent. No steam? wars between two nuclear armed powers have yet been Just as WWII brought several RMAs — blitzkrieg on fought and die battlefield utility of such weapons may land, aircraft earner and amphibious warfare in the naval prove to be extremely limited. realm, and strategic bombing (including the separate RMA of atomic weapons) and radar-controlled fighter Chance and technology defense in die air — it now appears we are once more At the heart of die RMA debate is the role of technolo¬ seeing the genesis of multiple RMAs. As is normal during gy in achieving a radical increase in war fighting. The the early stages of revolutionary change, there is con¬ image of overwhelming technical superiority during die tention over the character and ultimate direction of these 1991 war widi Iraq gave rise to die idea that we were budding RMAs, but a few broad observations are possi¬ observing yet anodier historical discontinuity in die con¬ ble. duct of warfare caused by the advent of new, high-tech¬ First, the emergence of genuine precision weapons nology weapons systems. Yet, there is strong dissent to this indicates that one new direction of war likely will involve point of view, particularly from many of die uniformed mil¬ a capability to conduct thousands of highly precise and itary, who view technology as less important dian the train¬ ledial strikes within hours, at accuracies and ranges sev¬ ing of the forces involved or the battlefield doctrines which eral orders of magnitude greater dian those observed

20 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/SEPT EM B ER 1998 Focus

seven years ago during Desert most vulnerable to such a new Storm. When one considers that means of war. Perhaps the most the weapons of Desert Storm were important issue to recognize is that perhaps 1,000 times more precise a new information-based society is than their World War II forebears, taking shape worldwide. Just as the the full effect of such precision industrial revolution provided the begins to emerge. (This precision, new means of combat, so also will however, depends on extraordinar¬ this information revolution. ily accurate intelligence to identify Welcome to die cyberspace battle¬ targets, which may prove a new field. Achilles heel.) Nevertheless, the There are several other poten¬ possibility of a new paradigm of tial RMAs, all widi ardent support¬ war involving thousands of precise ers. Experimentation and evalua¬ conventional strikes, delivered tion will show which of these against an opponent in a near- emerging doctrine anti technolo¬ I WANT YOU instantaneous manner, could fun¬ gies prove successful. To Visit www.afsa.org damentally change warfare. RMAs Outside the U.S. and Read! nformation warfare, an area of What, if anything, do RMAs I Go to AFSA’s homepage at particularly polarized debate, hold in store for our friends and www.afsa.org on the internet, is another plausible RMA, and foes? History seems to indicate and we will direct you to one that provides a unique set of diat, at the onset of RMAs, multi¬ QJJ22IiEIijl|,where you challenges to a post-industrial soci¬ ple paths forward emerge. Faced have access to millions of ety such as ours. In the future, the widi ever-constricting budgets and great books and music. potential for a very different form a pressing need to modernize, the The Foreign Service Journal of warfare exists, one that focuses U.S. may be forced into early receives a referral fee on on destruction of an opponent’s selection of the most promising every book or music item financial markets, disruption or approach and make a substantial purchased, so the more you manipulation of communications investment. Others may choose to buy, the better we can serve you as our reader. infrastructure, or jamming of any wait, determine which path offers electronic equipment reliant on them the best potential, then the microprocessor. Proponents of invest heavily in a new form of The Foreign Service information warfare emphasize warfare. Journal gives you access the potential for greatly expanded Naval experience between the to 2,500,000 books and intelligence architectures capable two world wars indicates that tak¬ music. Simply visit our of providing near clairvoyance of ing leadership first is not always web site! the battle space. Skeptics note the the winning strategy. Consider the essential and unchanging nature of British, Japanese, and American war, still best described by Carl experiences in transforming their von Clausewitz as a nonlinear phe¬ navies to take advantage of the air¬ nomenon, full of chance and fric¬ plane. By conceptualizing aircraft tion, and inherently unpredictable as the means to radically increase by analytical means. Further, they the range and striking power of the question whether the U.S., with deet, naval theorists forever our society's profound computer changed war at sea, but the real¬ dependence, is not the very nation ization of these ideas proved elu-

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 21

LIVING APARTMENT LUXURY FURNISHED FULLY ^ 22 FOREIGN SERVICEJOVRNAL/SEPT EM BERJ99S ♦ AVALON PROPERTIES— A COMPANYTHATCARES ABOUTOURRESIDENTS ♦ UNFURNISHED YEARLY LEASES AVAILABLE windfall, countingonAmericanlargessetogivethemthe WWII, however,dieyhadfallentoadistantthird,and capability whichprovednearlyunassailablebylate1941. throughout thewar.Japanhadnonavalaviationat dieir carriersplayedasecondaryroleintheiroperations sive. AtdieendofWorldWarI,Britishwerethe employing biologicalweaponsorconductingcyber-terror¬ competitor couldmakeanasymmetricalresponsetosupe¬ die U.S.toworkoutthebugs,andthenharvestRMA early innovatorsofnavalaviation. carrier strengthreachedthecapabilityenvisionedbydie experimentation, butitwasnotuntil1943whenAmerican The Americanexperiencewasoneofsteadyprogressand rior overallU.S.militarycapabilities,forexample,by allow specialistornichecompetitorstoemerge.A tant considerationfordiefutureofNATO. qualitative edgewhenneeded.Tliisisanespeciallyimpor¬ close ofWWI,butwithin20yearshadforgedanavalair unquestioned leaderinnavalaviation.Bythestartof Still anotherpossibleRMAoutcomeisdiatitcould Maybe ourfriendsandallieswouldbewisertowaitfor CONVENIENCE ♦ BusinessCenter ♦ WorkoutFacility ♦ 2LightedTennisCourts ♦ 2SwimmingPools ♦ CableTV ♦ FullyFurnishedEll.,1,2and3 ♦ Washer/DryerineachApartment ♦ GarageParking ♦ ValetDryCleaning ♦ Phone Bedroom Apartments It youarelookingtorcomlortandconvenience,thechoice iseasy.TheChaseatBethesdaotters Affordable HotelLivingwiththeAdvantages ofaHome 7500 WOODMONTAVE.•BETHESDA, MD.20814•(301)654-0694FAX654-0697 two twintowersintheheart ot Bethesdaandonly25stepstotheMetro. Daily rent.'Aartingfnmi$61.63Minimum 50-dca/occupancy THE CHASEATBETHESDA Focus Without innovation,timewillslowlyerodeAmerica’scur¬ tives andtimediecompetitiontomaximizehisadvantage. of achievingournationalobjectivescouldbeexcessive. ly increasediecostofU.S.involvementwidrinitssphere petitor couldpossesssufficientwar-fightingabilitytogreat¬ ist attacksagainsttargetswithinU.S.territory.Suchacom¬ changes promisedbydieRMAwilltakeyearstoimple¬ America istoinnovatewhilemaintainingdiestructure rent militarypre-eminence.Therealchallengefor all militaryareas,butmaychoosetobeselectiveinobjec¬ influence. WhiledieU.S.wouldultimatelyprevail,thecost be radicallydifferent,oritwilllikelyirrelevant. necessary tomaintainourownsecurity.Tobesure,the Moreover, apotentialadversaryneednotcompeteacross and sizeofdefensebudgethistoricallyhaveproventobe resemble thatoftoday.Llowever,themilitary2020will ment. Thestructureofdiemilitary2010willgenerally Cost isnotdiedeterminingfactor.Economicstrength Military powerisaconstandychangingequation. No “SilverBullets” LOCATION OTHER ITEMS ♦ JustMinutestoNIH,Navy ♦ VacuumCleaner ♦ Roll-a-wavbed ♦ Housekeeping ♦ Crib,DeskandChair ♦ StepsAwayto2GroceiyStores, ♦ 25StepstoMetro and Shopping. over 135Restaurants,Banks Bank andEmbassyRow. Hospital, Pentagon,World Focus

irrelevant factors in the success or fail¬ The first nation to endeavor, extremely violent and non-lin¬ ure of nations which have undergone ear. Any revolutionary approach to war¬ previous RMAs. Germany’s develop¬ implement an RMA fare must recognize this first principle or ment of blitzkrieg and Japans develop¬ be doomed to failure. Moreover, diere ment of the aircraft carrier are just two does not always do it are no “silver bullets” out there which examples of how intellectual advance promise to make war on the cheap. preceded material capability for a new best; one can learn Although cost is not die determinant of form of warfare. Thus, the U.S. cannot an RMA, neitiier is technology. afford to feel secure merely because it from others’ mistakes. While the RMA offers the potential outspends everyone else on defense by for a strategic leap ahead and has cap¬ several orders of magnitude. tured the interest of militaries world¬ Finally, the RMA poses an additional, unique burden wide, it is proving exceeding difficult to achieve die intel¬ on die U.S. History shows that early leaders in RMAs are lectual breakdrrough so vital to ultimate success. The sometimes unable to sustain their relative advantage. A RMA necessitates, first and foremost, innovative thinking U.S. defense establishment tightiy stretched to maintain a about military problems, and innovation is a particularly worldwide presence and military advantage via continued difficult characteristic to foster widiin the typical hierar¬ dependence on existing systems is poorly positioned to chical structure of the worlds militaries. innovate and to achieve die exponential jump in war-fight¬ Despite diese challenges, for die United States to ing capabilities tiiat new concepts promise. maintain its security in the 21st century, the nation’s lead¬ Regardless of its shape or context, no RMA will change ing strategists must study, conceptualize and harness the die fundamental nature of war. War will remain a complex next generation of RMAs. ■

IN MEMORIAM

OUR DEEPEST CONDOLENCES

We extend our condolences to the families, friends and colleagues of those killed in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam and express our respects for those who serve their country abroad, often in dangerous places.

HARRY M. JANNETTE INTERNATIONAL

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 23 Focus ON DIPLOMACY AND THE MILITARY

DIPLOMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE COMING RMA

WHEN THE U.S. IS UNRIVALED MILITARILY,

WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR ALLIANCES?

By Rachel Bronson and Daniel Goure

.he 1991 Gulf War convinced the world that the United States had become stronger, faster and more capable than any other power on the globe. Although the United States fought the Gulf War in coalition with its allies, the supremacy of U.S. technology, coordinated by superior com¬ mand and control, was one of the most noteworthy aspects of the war. The spectacular successes of U.S. weapons systems and forces in the Gulf War led many observers to argue that the U.S. was on the verge of a revolution in military affairs (RMA) — that is, a profound change in the overall capability and operating “style” of military forces. This revolution follows many others, such as the introduction of gunpowder, the creation of mechanized

24 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O URN AL/SEPTEMBER 1998 Focus

ground and air warfare (the A computer-based United States is able to conduct “Blitzkrieg”), and the advent of certain kinds of operations unilater¬ nuclear weapons and ballistic mis¬ military revolution ally, they may become less likely to siles. The belief in a current-day commit their own military support. RMA is usually associated with the has both negative and The United States may still need explosion in information technology, the support of its allies (more for advanced sensors, and instantaneous positive consequences political than for military reasons), communications. Some advocates but it is less likely to be offered. add such capabilities as stealth, for diplomacy. The RMA, if realized, may space-based navigation and commu¬ therefore serve as a mixed blessing. nications, directed energy, and even It may make it easier for the United genetic manipulation. States to augment an ally’s war-fighting capability by providing valuable information. It may also help Advances in U.S. war fighting will have both friends abroad rely on U.S. assistance without having positive and negative consequences for U.S. to constantly defend the relationship to a skeptical diplomatic efforts. On the positive side, tech¬ domestic audience. On the other hand, revolutionary' nological innovations associated with an information- advances may strain relations with traditional allies. based RMA will allow the United States to arrive at They may limit the U.S. ability to fight effectively conflicts more quickly from farther away, a concept alongside its allies. At the same time, they may known as “just-in-time warfare.” This will reduce the decrease the forces that local allies will contribute to need to pre-position troops and material, a particu¬ future conflicts. larly attractive achievement for leaders sensitive to U.S. presence in their country. The RMA will also Good news, bad news enable the U.S. to share with its allies a view of the Most advocates of the RMA focus on its implica¬ battlefield otherwise unattainable, thereby helping tions for the conduct of military operations. Yet, its tip the scales in favor of U.S. allies over their ene¬ implications for diplomacy and the conduct of U.S. mies. In some cases, technologies that support rapid foreign policy are equally if not more profound. The mobility and improved battlefield awareness can also RMA will bring opportunities to support both tradi¬ be used in conflict prevention and crisis manage¬ tional and innovative diplomacy. However, like any ment. other large-scale change in human affairs, it will also On the negative side, technological innovations create new problems. may create a U.S. military that thinks and acts faster The centerpiece of most conceptions of today’s than its allies. U.S. and European military planners military revolution is the ability to acquire and worry that future fighting forces will find it difficult process rapidly vast amounts of information. The to operate effectively on the same battlefield. Also of military refers to this as the field of command, con¬ concern to U.S. friends and allies is the appropriate¬ trol, communications, computers (intelligence, sur¬ ness of an RMA fighting force to many of the kinds veillance and reconnaissance) or C'ISR. Superiority of threats they face, such as ethnic and sectarian vio¬ in C'ISR will allow the militaryJ to achieve dominant lence, disorder caused in failed states and terrorism. battlefield awareness, an understanding of the loca¬ Furthermore, if allies become convinced that the tion, status and behavior of the forces on the battle¬

field and the ability7 to use that information in mili¬ Rachel Bronson is a senior fellow for military affairs at tary operations. Gaining a superior position in the the Center for Strategic and International Studies. battle for information will involve both measures to Dan Goitre is the deputy director of political-military gather information and efforts to deny information to studies at CSIS. an adversary. The advantages of knowing more than

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 25 Focus

one’s opponent in war are self-evident. planning. At present, it is difficult even to detect Superior knowledge is equally important to the attacks on U.S. computer networks. Identifying the conduct of foreign policy. The use of long-range, pri¬ originator of such attacks and motivation is even more marily space-based sensors, so-called “national tech¬ complex. In addition, if the computer system attacked nical means,” has been central to verily strategic arms is in private hands, such as that belonging to a bank, reduction agreements. Modern C'ISR have been used and the source of the attack is not a nation but an indi¬ to great effect in the Sinai, helping to maintain a 20- vidual, a hacker, the role for the U.S. military in year peace. At present, similar technologies are used responding to such an event is, at present, unclear. in such widely varied areas as counter-narcotics, envi¬ This creates enormous opportunities for hostile forces ronmental monitoring, and the management of to attack critical nodes in the U.S. economy under a refugee flows. protective disguise which will make military respons¬ es extremely difficult. What the RMA may bring to the conduct of diplomacy is an order-of-magnitude War By Internet? increase in both the quality and breadth of The prospects for using computers and networks information available. The same capabilities which such as the Internet to pursue national security inter¬ can support dominant battlefield awareness in the ests, and even military objectives, may present some event of hostilities can support the conduct of diplo¬ interesting and positive opportunities in the future. macy in peacetime. These capabilities can be used to Some advocates of information warfare talk about an monitor arms control agreements, support cease-fire era in which war by bayonet, bullet and bomb will be arrangements, ensure the inviolability of disputed ter¬ replaced by combat via computer virus, logic bomb ritories, and provide reassurance to states seeking to and data corruption. They see a time when the U.S. institute confidence-building measures. The ability to military will be able to seize control of an adversary see with greater clarity across broader areas of the nation’s computer networks from a distance, paralyz¬ Earth and to translate data into understanding can ing communications, transportation, power systems, support the expansion of diplomatic activities into and industrial enteiprises. They even foresee a time new areas. In arms control, this may empower new when we can move beyond simply paralyzing another arrangements intended to help build stability and country’s electronic media by seizing control of them, security in regions long marked by suspicion and con¬ and using them to undermine an adversary regime. flict. For the field of environmental monitoring, these The end result would be force without violence and new capabilities could support global arrangements wars without casualties. on limiting greenhouse gases, waste dumping, and preservation of the rain forests. In support of human¬ But the new environment poses interesting new itarian assistance operations, the new C'ISR technolo¬ problems for the diplomats. What constitutes gies provide the basis for situation assessment and sovereignty on the Internet? What are the lim¬ response in distant and difficult lands. its to the classic right of self-defense when the U.S. is The ability to operate in new environments leads, attacked from a computer site in a third country that perhaps inevitably to combat in those arenas. Aerial uses telephone lines passing through two other coun¬ combat followed close on the heels of our conquest of tries? Should there be limits to the use of cyberspace the air. The new medium is cyberspace; the new kind for military puiposes in view of the fact that it is of combat is termed information warfare. While the becoming the backbone of the modern global econo¬ field of information warfare involves more than my? What kind of arrangements, procedures or attacking and defending computer networks and data treaties need to be in place to simultaneously protect bases, the subject of conflict in cyberspace poses one national security, promote electronic commerce and of the greatest challenges to U.S. security and military communications, and preserve personal privacy? The

26 FOREIGN SERVICE ] OU RN AL! SEPT EM B ER 1998 Focus

management of cyberspace, as was The ability to operate instantaneous connectivity with the case with outer space before it, forces at the front. In peacetime, will require new regimes and in new arenas, like this new connectivity would enable approaches. the U.S. to reduce the size of for- Overall, the RMA will create cyberspace, leads ward-deployed forces and installa¬ opportunities for a new kind of war, tions, thereby reducing the potential one that is extraordinarily fast- almost inevitably risks from preemptive or terrorist paced, extremely intense, and prob¬ attacks as well as the economic and ably wide-ranging, and without to combat in socio-political burden on local pop¬ clearly defined front lines. Properly ulations. conducted, a second Gulf War those arenas. employing RMA-type forces could The same characteristics be over in a fraction of the time with which make this new type of fewer casualties. Because of the capabilities provided warfare desirable from a mil¬ by modern C'ISR, the forces deployed into the field itary perspective raise a number of concerns regard¬ in such a war would be much smaller. Many of the ing political and diplomatic consequences. Chief headquarters and supporting facilities which tradi¬ among them is the potential for such capabilities to tionally have been forward deployed would remain at create crisis instabilities. In most scenarios, but par¬ locations far from the battlefield but possess near- ticularly those in which both sides have RMA-orient-

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SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREICN SERVICE JOURNAL 27 Focus

ed forces, there is the potential for the The information The proliferation of RMA tech¬ side that strikes first to gain a signifi¬ nologies raises serious problems cant, even overwhelming, advantage revolution may lead for arms control and technology over its adversary by knocking out the transfer. It is probably too late to opponents C4ISR systems. Remember to mind-boggling control many of the relevant tech¬ that the 1991 Gulf War began with nologies. In some cases our con¬ strikes on Iraqi early warning radars, arms races. cern should be about the ability of followed by attacks on military com¬ adversaries to gain access through mand posts, air defense headquarters, commercial channels to technolo¬ communications centers, and electric power. Iraq gies more advanced than those possessed by the U.S. never recovered from the effects of these initial military. Because of the dual-use character of many of strikes. these technologies, they may be readily and unde- tectably convertible to military uses. This creates the Military history shows us how unstable such a potential for serious arms race instabilities as well as situation can be. The classic case was the the danger of excess spending by relatively poor coun¬ very beginning of World War I. Then, the tries on advanced technologies more suitable to mili¬ danger of falling behind in a competitive process of tary than commercial uses. military mobilization added to pressures for war. Today, the danger of being blinded and decapitated Will Allies Keep Up? by an adversary’s first strike could create pressures for To date, the few analysts who have focused on the nations to strike first or risk losing their critical RMA RMA and what it means for allied relations have tend¬ assets. An RMA intervention force might well look ed to stress the positive aspects. Information and extremely imposing to potential adversaries in regions technology can be given and retracted at will, benefit- to which that force was deployed. Once such a force ting America’s friends and depriving its enemies. With begins to deploy forward into a region in crisis, an U.S. support, Joseph Nye and William Owen suggest, adversary may seek resort to preemptive action to “Allies could achieve the same kind of military domi¬ forestall being attacked. nance as the United States.” The United States will be Many of the technologies associated with the RMA able to ensure that “local allies retaining their own are dual-use in nature. The revolution in military heavy forces can dominate on the battlefield, even if CTSR is being driven by advances in commercial initially outmatched,” comments Martin Libicki. communications, computing and networking. The But along with increased opportunities, the RMA commercial use of space-based systems for remote also presents challenges. The potential problems fall sensing and communications is growing. It is there¬ into two categories: operational and strategic. The fore likely that others, including potential future operational problems are those that will affect U.S. adversaries, will be able to acquire some elements of forces’ ability to operate with their allies. The strate¬ an RMA force. This creates the potential of a series of gic set of problems are those that affect the U.S. abil¬ local RMA arms races not dissimilar to the competi¬ ity to develop efficient strategies to accomplish vari¬ tion to develop ballistic missiles and weapons of mass ous goals. Both types of problems may make it less destruction ongoing in the Middle East and South likely that other nations will be willing to fight along¬ Asia. A 1995 Defense Science Board study warned side the United States—and more difficult for those that a future adversary, bv investing no more than $2 allies to fight effectively, even when they are willing. billion dollars a year for a few years in selected RMA technologies, could seriously compromise the ability Recent conflicts in the Persian Gulf and Bosnia of the U.S. to intervene militarily in the adversary’s suggest that coalition operations wall be an home region. important war-fighting model for the future.

28 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/SEPTEMBER 1998 American Foreign Service Association

For Capital Gains Fairness, Write the Capitol by Ken Nakamura a principal residence (up to $250,000 for Congressional Affairs Director single taxpayers). The qualification is that the Governing Board house must have been the taxpayer's princi¬ President: Daniel F. Geisler nyone who has been around the pal residence for at least two of the last five State Vice President: vacant O USAID Vice President: Frank Miller Foreign Service for long knows years to the date of the sale, and that the USIA Vice President: J. Riley Sever the problem. A single employee exclusion on the sale of a principal residence CS Vice President: Charles Kestenbaum FAS Vice President: Maggie Dowling buys a one-bedroom condo downtown, is can only be taken once every two years. Retiree Vice President: Edward Dillery transferred overseas and returns four years The law does provide for a pro-rated Secretary: Aurelius Fernandez Treasurer: Thomas Boyatt later with a spouse and an infant. Or a capital gains exclusion if the seller lived in State Representatives: Natalie Brown, couple rents out their four-bedroom colo¬ the residence for any portion of the previ¬ Marilyn Bruno, Michael Corbett, Christopher Sandrolini, Greg Stanton nial in the suburbs and leaves for post with ous five years. For example, a couple who USAID Representative: vacant two kids in tow. By the time they are reas¬ occupied a residence for one of five years USIA Representative: Susan Crais Hovanec Retiree Representatives: Garber Davidson, signed to Washington eight years later, the can exclude 20 percent of the $500,000 Willard DePree, Wiliam Harrop, Clyde Taylor kids are grown. The situation varies, but maximum for a $100,000 exclusion (20 FAS Representative: Peg Thursland CS Representative: Geoff Walser chances are someone who has served percent of $250,000 for a $50,000 exclu¬ Staff overseas for two consecutive tours will sion for singles). Executive Director: Susan Reardon Business Department have second thoughts about living in that Unfortunately, the pro-rated exclusion Controller: David McEvoy home purchased years earlier. does not help those who have served back- Accounting Assistant: Jenifer O'Neal Labor Management One solution should be simply to sell to-back tours abroad and have not lived in General Counsel: Sharon Papp and buy something more appropriate. their homes for any of the last five years. Staff Attorney: Colleen Fallon Coordinators: Richard C. Scissors However, last year's change in the tax law, Those people must wait two years to USIA Labor Relations Specialist: Carol Lutz which benefited most Americans, over¬ sell or pay a capital gains tax. For active Labor Management Attorneys: Suzanne Brennan, Tanisha Cole looked the Foreign Service. The current employees, changes not only in family Grievance Attorney: Henry Sizer law (Public Law 105-34) allows an exclu¬ size, but also changes in the neighbor¬ Law Cleric Peter Hutchinson Office Managers: Gen Verble, Rita Cohen sion of up to $500,000 for couples filing hood, schooling considerations, or salary Member Services jointly on the capital gains from the sale of Director: Janet Hedrick Continued on page 2 Representative.Volanda Odunsi Administrative Assistant: Thomasina Johnson Retiree Liaison: Ward Thompson • AFSA Dateline • Professional Programs •AFSA welcomes two new staff members. • Retired FSO Robert Curtis (State) and his Professional Issues Coordinator: Richard S. Thompson Peter Hutchinson, a third year law student at wife Evelyn have notified the AFSA Scholarship Congressional Affairs Director: Ken Nakamura Catholic University, has joined the AFSA Labor Fund that upon their deaths, a $20,000 AFSA Communications Coordinator. Kristina Kreamer Scholarship Administrator: Lori Dec Management office as a law clerk. Louise C. perpetual scholarship will be established in Corporate Relations: Mark Lore Eaton has been hired as director of the 75th their name. This need-based, financial aid Anniversary Celebration. She has just retired scholarship will assist a Foreign Service child to Internet Addresses: from 24 years in the Department of State, most meet college expenses. Since only the interest [email protected] (Association) recently in the Office of Protocol. She can be from the principal is awarded, this type of [email protected] (President) [email protected] (FSJ) reached at 202-338-4045 ext. 501. scholarship lives on in perpetuity. For more • M. Juanita Guess, for whom the AFSA information on establishing a perpetual scholar¬ AFSA Headquarters: (202) 338-4045 FAX: (202) 338-6820 Community Liaison Officer Award is named, ship, call Lori Dec, AFSA Scholarship State Department Office:(202) 647-8160 died on July 1 5. Her family established the Administrator, at 1-800-704-2372 ext. 504. FAX: (202| 647-0265 USAID Office: (202) 712-1941 award in her name in 1 996 to honor out¬ •GET INVOLVED. AFSA POST REPRESENTATIVES FAX: (202) 216-3710 standing CLOs. She was co-founder and are needed in Abuja, Adana, Addis Ababa, USIA Office: (202)401-6405 FAX: (202)401-6410 past president of the Clements & Co. insur¬ Amsterdam, Ashgabat, Asmara, Asuncion, AFSA News Editor: Wesley Ann Godard ance brokerage. Continued on page 3

AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1998 1 Capital Gains Tax • RETIREES Continued from page 1 increases may precipitate the desire to sell a residence. For those who are V.P. VOICE separated from the Service due to • BY EDWARD DILLERY • retirement or time-in-class/time-in-ser- vice limitations and plan to settle out¬ side the Washington, D.C. area, the Dues: Still Doing More With Less new law is a particular burden. AFSA has contacted Chairman Bill hey say nothing is certain except issues, needing an annuity and Archer (R-Tex.) and ranking member dues and taxes — or something benefits ombudsman in Washington Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) of the House like that. As you all know, we (backed up by AFSA attorneys), sup¬ Ways and Means Committee, and will have a referendum in October porting public and Congressional out¬ Chairman William Roth, Jr. (R- Del.) on the AFSA Board's proposal to reach for more resources for diploma¬ and ranking member Daniel Patrick restructure our dues. cy, joining with other retirees in local Moynihan (D-N.Y.) of the Senate I support the restructuring plan (the associations, having special insurance Finance Committee, as well as many AFSA vice president for programs and other ser¬ friendly members of the House and the retirees is an unpaid posi¬ vices AFSA has arranged. Senate requesting assistance in tion, so I have no personal "I hope you I know that you are amending the law. AFSA President vested interest). Without it, familiar with how AFSA Dan Geisler has also requested the AFSA's long-term viability will vote meets these interests: infor¬ support of Under Secretary of State / / would be questionable. yes mation via the Journal, the for Management Bonnie Cohen. In a The proposal addresses AFSA Letter for retirees letter to Under Secretary Cohen, he two problems: (1) The cur¬ in the October and the AFSANET; a pointed out that "service abroad can rent dues structure no referendum." retiree liaison and toll-free now entail a tax liability that exceeds longer produces the rev¬ number (1-800-704- a year's salary." enue required by AFSA to 2372) to get help resolv¬ At AFSA's request Rep. Amo represent members' inter¬ ing individual retirement Houghton (R-N.Y.), who serves on ests effectively in an envi¬ problems; media outreach, both the House International Relations ronment where sophisticat¬ the speakers bureau, Committee and the tax-writing House ed technology is essential for any such Diplomats Online and congressional liai¬ Committee on Ways and Means, is association and where competition son; advice and assistance in forming introducing a bill that states, "An eligi¬ among organizations for skilled staff new local associations. These are just ble taxpayer shall be treated as using specialists has accordingly increased. some of the recent activities in which we property as a principal residence dur¬ (2) People with smaller annuities and have been engaged on behalf of retirees. ing any period the taxpayer (or the salaries bear a disproportionate share In order to inform and respond to taxpayer's spouse) is serving on offi¬ of the dues burden. members, to monitor legislation which cial extended duty, but only if the tax¬ The Board proposal would affects their interests, and to interact payer used the property as a principal reduce or hold steady the dues for with Washington agencies to ensure residence before the period of official persons with smaller salaries/annu¬ that Foreign Service concerns are not extended duty." ities and increase dues for those with overlooked, AFSA now relies on elec¬ Further, because many people have larger ones. The brunt of the increase tronic databases, access to information already had to pay capital gains tax would fall on senior active members through the Internet and cooperation under the new law, Houghton's provi¬ but we senior retirees will also be with like-minded legislative and retiree sion would be retroactive to the enact¬ asked to help. Since many people groups whose communication is ment of that law on May 6, 1 997. are retiring with much higher annu¬ increasingly via e-mail. Eligible taxpayers are defined, for ities than in the past, the new struc¬ To date AFSA has followed the the purpose of this bill, as members of ture would include new categories for old principle of trying to do more the armed forces or members of the those with the larger annuities. with less and will continue to do so. Foreign Service. While separate legis¬ Retiree dues would still be relatively Our staff is not large, and salary lev¬ lation has already been introduced on lower than for active duty colleagues, els are very low in comparison with behalf of the military, Rep. Houghton reflecting AFSA's different mix of ser¬ going rates in the D.C. area. But to suggested that our bill should also vices for the retiree constituency. remain a viable player in the new include the armed forces. Our hope is AFSA is many things to many millennium there are certain minimum that with members of the military and members. We believe it is important requirements for technology and staff the Foreign Service making the same to respond to retirees' widely diverse quality which we must follow. argument, the seriousness of the interests. Those interests include So to keep the association healthy — inequity created by last year's tax law wanting to stay informed about the and helpful to us — I hope you will vote will be more apparent. When the Foreign Service and retirement "yes" in the October referendum. House passed the Defense Authorization bill, H.R. 361 6, it included a non-binding

2 AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1998 sense of the Congress resolution expressing support for a change in the capital gains exclusion. AFSA members can help by urging your representatives to cosponsor or sup¬ V.P. VOICE port the new legislation; by expressing • BY RILEY SEVER • your support to Rep. Bill Archer, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee (Washington, D.C. 20515); and by writing Sen. William Roth, chair¬ Don't Kid Yourself man of the Senate Finance Committee oining a union is like buying have allowed their memberships to (Washington, D.C. 20510), asking the J health insurance: you don't real¬ lapse that the benefits of belonging to Senate to pass legislation similar to Rep. ize you need it until you're sick. In AFSA are real. Officers often ask, Houghton's bill. his June 16, 1998 column in the "What has AFSA done for me?" My (PLEASE NOTE: All such contacts must Washington Post, Mike Causey illus¬ response is that we are there for you all be made on personal time and as a pri¬ trated how federal employees are the time. Our presence in our offices at vate citizen. While you can identify your¬ often unaware of the ways they bene¬ M-21 as well as at the negotiating table self as a Foreign Service employee, you fit from union activities. He and our activism keep man¬ cannot say you represent either the wrote that in May, agement on their toes. We Foreign Service or a foreign affairs "Congress was considering force them to think twice agency. The law also prohibits use of gov- a plan that would have "We need to before acting, and having | ernment resources such as stationery, tele¬ changed the formula for acted, to worry about what phones, fax or e-mail for this purpose.) remind our health insurance from a per¬ AFSA's response will be. centage split... to a system colleagues...that The past year has been Dateline in which the government's the benefits of challenging for USIA's share would be capped AFSA office. We are part of Continued from page 1 and adjusted each year for belonging to an agency with shrinking Athens, Auckland, Baku, Bandar Seri inflation, rather than for the AFSA are real." resources and a question¬ Begawan, Bangkok, Bangui, Banjul, generally much higher rate able future. Furthermore, Barcelona, Beirut, Belfast, Bilbao, Bishkek, of medical inflation." senior management does Bogota, Bombay, Brasilia, Brazzaville, Thanks to the coordinat¬ not fully recognize the tal¬ Bridgetown, Brussels (USEC), Brussels ed efforts of the various unions, he ents or the role of the Foreign Service in (USNATO), Bucharest, Budapest, noted, "current and former federal the agency. While AFSA can't solve Bujumbura, Calcutta, Calgary, Casablanca, workers dodged a budget bullet that these problems, we have been working Chengdu, Chennai, Chiang Mai, Chisinau, would have boosted their collective at all levels of the bureaucracy in USIA, Cotonou, Curacao, Doha, Durban, health premium costs by $1.6 billion. State and on the Hill to advocate for the Dushanbe, Florida Regional Center, Fortunately for the feds and retirees, interests of USIA's FS corps and for the Freetown, Fukuoka, Gaborone, Grenada, they are represented by unions and preservation of the public diplomacy Guadalajara, Guatemala City, Guayaquil, organizations with full-time pros who function within U.S. foreign policy. The Hague, Halifax, Hamburg, Hamilton, know how to track, and sometimes Help AFSA help you. Get Hanoi, Havana, Helsinki, Hermosillo, sidetrack, things that would hurt their involved. Subscribe to the AFSANET. Khartoum, Kiev, Kinshasa, Kolonia, Koror, members and nonmembers, too." Let us know through e-mail and letters La Paz, Lahore, Leipzig, Lilongwe, Ljubljana, Causey continued with a pointed what you think about the issues we're Lome, London, Majuro, Marseille, Maseru, comment for nonmembers: "This is a addressing, as well as those you feel Matamoros, Mbabane, Merida, Minsk, perfect example of members who pay we should be addressing. Work with Montreal, Moscow, Munich, Niamey, dues once again saving the backsides the AFSA Standing Committee when Nouakchott, Nuevo Laredo, Osaka-Kobe, of nonmembers. So, if recruiters for you are in Washington. Get non-mem¬ Oslo, Paramaribo, Perth, Peshawar, Ponta some group ask you to read some of bers to join AFSA. Delgada, Port Louis, Port-au-Prince, Porto the union or association's literature, In addition, vote next month in favor Alegre, Praia, Pusan, Quebec, Recife, don't send them away because you of the proposed dues restructuring which Reykjavik, Riga, St. George's, Sapporo, cut your own deals in life and can will provide both more equality accord¬ Shenyang, Skopje, Sofia, Strasbourg, take care of yourself on Capitol Hill. ing to grade and additional income to Surayaba, Suva, Tallin, Tashkent, Tbilisi, Send them away, if you must. But support increased member services. And Thessaloniki, Tijuana, Tirana, Tunis, don't kid them — or yourself — that if you have doubts about whether AFSA Valleta, Vatican City, Vientiane, Vilnius, you don't use, and need, their ser¬ is doing enough for you, just remember Wellington, Windhoek, Yaounde, vices big-time, from time to time." what Mike Causey said in his column, Yekaterinburg, Yerevan, Zagreb. Contact Although more than 60 percent of "If you think you can't afford their dues, Yolanda Odunsi, Membership USIA officers and specialists are AFSA do the math on what your share of that Representative at [email protected] or by members, we need to remind our col¬ proposed $ 1.6 billion increase in health phone at (202)338-4045 ext. 525. leagues who have never joined or who premiums would have cost you."

AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1 998 3 Sandra Hood Counsels Others To Improve V.P. VOICE Their Lives... • BY CHARLES KESTENBAUM • ITA Reorganization Revisited .. .before that, she was a Peace Corps Volunteer. ommerce Secretary William Daley reduced to only five officers (one deputy has given the green light to the assistant secretary for international opera¬ International Trade Administration tions and four regional directors). In con¬ (ITA) to proceed with the long-awaited trast, about 40 percent of all State FSOs reorganization. On July 9, 1998, AFSA are serving domestically. The number for President Dan Geisler, sever¬ FAS is closer to 50 percent. al key AFSA officials and I I believe that the virtual met with Commerce Under elimination of FSOs from the Secretary for International "The virtual management of the US&FCS Trade David Aaron and his elimination of FSOs is an untenable proposal senior staff. Ambassador which demonstrates an unac¬ Aaron presented AFSA with in the management ceptable disdain by ITA man¬ SANDRA • SAM" HOOD 4.-4, the broad outlines of the ITA of the US&FCS agement for the corps of reorganization and dis¬ career Foreign Service officers lome: cussed briefly the philoso¬ is an untenable who serve our country over¬ Ketchikan, tlaska phy guiding this proposed proposal." seas. Slated for elimination is reorganization. the Office of Human Resource While the details of the Development, which operates reorganization are yet to our assignment process and is be negotiated (and as the saying goes, the primary source of career counseling the devil is in the details), some of the and guidance for our approximately 250 broad outlines have emerged. Among FSOs. The office was originally created as the objectives which will surely draw a response to the loud and sustained out¬ (SSSSSSt^sr broad consensus of agreement are the cry from US&FCS officers overseas whose intent to consolidate diverse trade pro¬ career development was largely ignored motion functions into one operating unit by previous US&FCS management teams. (within the US&FCS), to reduce and Also featured in the initial draft of the eliminate redundancies in administrative ITA reorganization is the reduction of both management, and to strengthen the Foreign Service and Civil Service staff in While in the Peace Corps, Sandra overseas operations of the US&FCS. the Office of International Operations, the "Sam" Hood helped villagers However, several proposals outlined principal management structure supporting in Thailand improve their lives by Ambassador Aaron are sure to gener¬ our extensive network of personnel and through agriculture and better health practices. Today, thanks to ate controversy, and will require AFSA to programs worldwide. Ambassador Aaron her Peace Corps service, Sam is also pursue active negotiations. As presently noted in his presentation that one major making a difference at home. She is constituted, these proposals will have a aspect of the ITA reorganization is the pro¬ a successful substance abuse significant, adverse impact on the terms posed transfer of up to 40 personnel to counselor working with "at-risk" and conditions of employment for Foreign the overseas posts of US&FCS from other groups in Alaska. Service officers serving in the US&FCS. ITA divisions. How can such an expansion While the negotiating process has yet to be sustained by reducing the small head¬ Peace Corps Volunteers are commence, it is not premature to sound quarters management team? changing America and changing alarm bells about several of the provisions We are just starting the negotiating the world. of this reorganization. process. What will be crucial to the suc¬ At the heart of AFSA's concern for cess of the export-support programs of the For more information, call

our members is what appears to be the reorganized ITA is a sustained commit¬ 800-424-8580 belief among ITA leadership that the ment by all parties to building an integrat¬ and press 1 at the prompt. U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service ed service dedicated to achieving our Web Address: www.peacecorps.gov need not be run by its Foreign Service international economic/commercial employees, but rather by a cadre of objectives. Anything less will be contrary PEACE CORPS career Civil Service professionals. to our national interest. The toughest job you'll ever love. The presence of FSOs in the manage¬ Stay tuned as we work our way The Peace Corps prohibits discrimination based on race, color, ment of the US&FCS is proposed to be through this reorganization. national origin, religion, age (over 40), sex, disability, political affiliation, and sexual orientation. All Peace Corps services and programs are administered on this nondiscriminatory basis. Anyone who feels he or she has been discriminated against may write to the American Diversity Program Manager, Peace Corps, Washington, DC 20526. 764 4 AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1998 WHERE DOES THE MONEY GO? BY SUSAN REARDON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

On the following pages you will find the unprecedented performance of the stock • AFSA's activities break down into two AFSA's 1997 audited financial statements. market. This portfolio is professionally man¬ categories: dues-supported and non-dues- AFSA, like any professionally run non-profit, aged with oversight from the AFSA Finance supported. The dues-supported activities are has an annual independent audit which Committee and invested in stocks and 62 percent of the total. AFSA's Labor complies with IRS regulations and accepted bonds which should protect us in down mar¬ Management Department (labor relations, accounting standards. Unfortunately, this kets and benefit us in up markets. legal and grievance services) represents the does not translate into an easy-to-read illus¬ •The chart without the scholarship fund largest portion of our dues-supported activity tration of AFSA's finances and fiscal health. illustrates slightly decreasing revenue over — 35 percent. The largest expense in that With the Governing Board's request for the past three years. These decreases department is salaries and benefits (90 per¬ a dues restructuring and the upcoming refer¬ reflect a decrease in membership due to a cent). In Labor Management the single endum, understanding AFSA's financial sta¬ shrinking Foreign Service. Expenses have greatest challenge to maintaining quality ser¬ tus is especially important. Here are a few declined or held steady despite increased vices is the recruitment and retention of qual¬ key points: demands for more services to members, an ified staff. While we have been fortunate to •The audit statements are a combina¬ increase in the use of AFSA funds to attract a talented and dedicated staff, we tion of all AFSA activities including the defend the Foreign Service in Congress are paying significantly under market and scholarship fund. The scholarship fund, and the never-ending demand to keep up risk losing them. The proposed dues restruc¬ supported by an endowment of over $3 with new technologies. turing will help us address this issue. million, is appropriately restricted and •An important element of an orga¬ The AFSA Finance Committee under used only for scholarships. nization's financial health is its net the direction of Treasurer Thomas Boyatt •The charts on page 6 illustrate our rev¬ assets. Including the scholarship fund has done a superb job of managing enue and expenses with the scholarship our net assets are a healthy AFSA's finances, getting the most out of fund and without. The combined chart indi¬ $5,002,833. Without the scholarship our investments, cutting expenses and bal¬ cates a significant increase in revenue in the fund this figure falls to $ 1,494,773 ancing the resource demands of all our last three years. This is almost entirely due to which includes all of our equipment activities. With your help AFSA will the scholarship fund investment portfolio and and the building. continue to prosper.

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AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1 998 5 6 AFSANEWS •SEPTEMBER1998

Millions Millions Without ScholarshipFund Revenue andExpenses AFSA AUDITOR'SREPORT1998 1995 -1997 All Funds Expenses Revenue AFSA AUDITOR'S REPORT 1998

7101 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 900 Lang+Associates, P.A. Bethesda, Maryland 20814-4805 Tel: (301) 654-4900 Consultants and Certified Public Accountants Fax: (301) 654-3567 E-mail: [email protected]

Governing Board American Foreign Service Association and Associated Organizations

In planning and performing our audit of the consolidated financial statements of the American Foreign Service Association and Associated Organizations (the Association) for the year ended December 31, 1997, we considered the Association’s internal controls to determine our auditing procedures for the purpose of expressing an opinion on the financial statements and not to provide assurance on internal controls.

We would like to offer suggestions that represent opportunities for strengthening the Association’s internal controls and operating efficiency. The memorandum that accompanies this letter summarizes our comments and suggestions regarding those matters.

We appreciate the courtesy and cooperation that the Association’s staff extended to us during our audit and while formulating these comments and suggestions. We have already discussed our comments and suggestions orally with various personnel of the Association and would be pleased to discuss them further at your convenience or assist you in implementing them.

This report is intended solely for the information and use of management, Governing Board, and the Audit Committee.

Bethesda, Maryland April 3, 1998

AFSA NEWS SEPTEMBER 1998 7 AFSA AUDITOR'S REPORT 1998

American Foreign Service Association and Associated Organizations Consolidated Statement of Financial Position December 31, 1997 and 1996

1997 1996

Assets

Current Assets Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash of $200,291 in 1997 and $224,631 in 1996 $ 362,294 $ 540,042 Accounts receivable, less allowance for doubtful accounts of $5,000 in 1997 and $3,067 in 1996 66,817 83,657 Contributions receivable 32,235 Accrued interest and dividends 14,586 10,092 Prepaid expenses and other assets 27,070 22,611 Total current assets 470,767 688,637

Noncurrent Assets Land, building and equipment, net of depreciation 616,571 610,268 Temporarily restricted investments 3,648,030 2,759,402 Marketable securities 287,465 41,356 Total noncurrent assets 4,552,066 3,411,026

Total Assets $ 5,022,833 $ 4,099,663

Liabilities and Net Assets

Current Liabilities Accounts payable $ 87,084 $ 47,694 Accrued expenses 72,387 52,117 Deferred revenue 228,910 246,269 Current portion of note payable 17,822 40,578 Total current liabilities 406,203 386,658

Note Payable, less current portion 17,822 Total liabilities 406,203 404,480

Commitments and Contingencies ......

Net Assets Unrestricted 711,138 669,096 Temporarily restricted 3,905,492 3,026,087 Total net assets 4,616,630 3,695,183

Total Liabilities and Net Assets $ 5,022,833 $ 4,099,663

8 AFSA NEWS SEPTEMBER 1 998 AFSA AUDITOR'S REPORT 1998

American Foreign Service Association and Associated Organizations Consolidated Statement of Activities Year Ended December 31,1997

1997 1996 Temporarily Temporarily Unrestricted Restricted Total Unrestricted Restricted Total

Revenue, Gains, and Other Support Membership dues S 1,359,067 $ — $1,359,067 $1,393,016 $ — $ 1,393,016 Advertising sales 344,619 — 344,619 369,667 — 369,667 Contributions 90,789 289,646 380,435 66,586 295,333 361,919 Corporate sponsors ... 20,000 20,000 23,965 46,000 69,965 Subscriptions 10,218 _ 10,218 8,653 — 8,653 Realized and unrealized gain on marketable securities 30,395 750,659 781,054 1,909 268,079 269,988 Dividends and interest 13,280 99,392 112,672 5,182 91,038 96,220 Other 86,443 — 86,443 30,428 — 30,428 Net assets released from restrictions: Satisfaction of program restrictions 280,292 (280,292) — 364,985 (364,985) — Total revenue, gains, and other support 2,215,103 879,405 3,094,508 2,264,391 335,465 2,599,856

Expenses Program services Alumni 99,074 — 99,074 82,018 — 82,018 Journal 504,378 — 504,378 685,215 — 685,215 Membership 61,424 — 61,424 43,564 — 43,564 Labor relations 431,369 — 431,369 379,929 — 379,929 Legislative action 137,963 — 137,963 133,153 — 133,153 Club 50,167 — 50,167 51,222 — 51,222 Election 9,813 — 9,813 — — — Board and committee 39,217 — 39,217 47,961 — 47,961 AFSA Fund 176,246 — 176,246 122,058 — 122,058 Corporate relations 48,098 — 48,098 109,476 — 109,476 Public Affairs 12,455 — 12,455 — — — Minority intern — ... 2,164 — 2,164 Diplomats on line 5,225 ~ 5,225 41,299 — 41,299 Scholarship 247,868 — 247,868 237,696 — 237,696 Total program services 1,823,297 1,823,297 1,935,755 — 1,935,755

Supporting services Management and general 239,020 ... 239,020 162,298 — 162,298 Membership support 105,465 — 105,465 47,784 — 47,784 Fundraising 5,279 — 5,279 3,264 — 3,264 Total supporting services 349,764 349,764 213,346 — 213,346 Total expenses 2,173,061 2,173,061 2,149,101 — 2,149,101

Change in Net Assets 42,042 879,405 921,447 115,290 335,465 450,755

Net Assets, beginning of year 669,096 3,026,087 3,695,183 553.806 2.690.622 3.244.428

Net Assets, end of year $ 711,138 $3,905,492 $4,616,630 $ 669,096 $3,026,087 $3,695,183

AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER 1998 9 PvT l /X AAFSW BookFair NATIONAL TEMPORARY 1998 APARTMENTS, INC. Short-Term Furnished Apartment Specialists State Department Comfortable Fully furnished one, two or three bedroom apartments to your specifications. October 16-25 All linens, towels, kitchenware and other amenities provided. Cost Effective Far less expensive than most hotels or suites. Proceeds benefit a Convenient scholarship program Locations all around Washington, D.C., Northern Virginia and Maryland. and local charities. One phone call and we do all the work. (301) 495-8927

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I2 AFSA NEWS • SEPTEMBER I998 Focus

KINDER, GENTLER WEAPONRY? BY DAN GOURE

While the information revolution is the Nonlethal weapons are not only means for most prominent prospective change on crowd control. They could fundamentally change the military horizon, it’s not the only the relationship between force and diplomacy. one. Another development which may change the Early intervention in a crisis becomes more feasi¬ shape of U.S. power projection overseas is “non- ble and the risks less. Applied in large amounts lethal weapons.” This class of weapon systems is over significant areas, nonlethal weapons could be currently being explored by the used to dampen sectarian violence, U.S. military. impose ceasefires on warring par¬ These systems would be ties, exert controls in the event of designed to limit the extent and Nonlethal civil unrest, and even enforce arms duration of effects on people and control regimes with less risk to equipment. In addition to tradi¬ weapons make U.S. forces and to the parties to tional nonlethal systems such as such a conflict. Ultimately, such wooden batons, tear gas, stun early crisis instruments could even be used in grenades and rubber bullets, peace enforcement operations by there are new technologies involv¬ intervention denying mobility to hostile forces, ing acoustics, lasers, microwaves, interdicting supply lines, shutting and aerosols. These can be used less risky and down communications and closing from a distance, cover wide areas air fields, all without causing per¬ and affect vehicles and physical more feasible. manent damage or significant loss structures. of life. It is increasingly clear that This type of weaponry, when it future military operations, partic¬ becomes part of the U.S. arsenal, ularly those involving ambiguous may well affect U.S. ability and situations on the ground, will willingness to get militarily restrict the rules of engagement under which mil¬ involved in overseas crises. Currently, military itary force can be applied. Urban environments, leaders are sometimes reluctant to engage in so- refugee camps, and other situations where large called peacekeeping and nation-building activities, numbers of civilians are present pose new chal¬ because the forces that would be involved lack lenges to a military armed almost exclusively with proper equipment and training. Placing heavily highly lethal weapons. The ability to control with¬ armed soldiers in the role of policemen creates out killing, to restrict, channel and shape the enormous risks to both the population being movements of crowds and refugee groups, to pro¬ policed and to the soldiers themselves. Over-reac¬ tect vital facilities such as feeding centers from tion may mean civilian casualties, under-reaction attack, are all problems faced repeatedly by U.S. may result in dead Americans. Nonlethal weapons forces in recent years. They are the kinds of prob¬ may well help troops to achieve precise results (a lems for which nonlethal force offers particularly hostage rescue, for example) with few fatalities useful solutions. and little or no collateral damage. ■

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 29 Focus

Secretary of Defense William Cohen has said, “While defense, its forces are becoming increasingly high the United States will retain the capability to act uni¬ tech: relying on electronics, computers, and informa¬ laterally, a strategy that emphasizes coalition opera¬ tion processing. That is, the United States is moving tions is essential to protecting and promoting our ahead of its allies in C4ISR capabilities. Such tech¬ national interests in a world in which we as a nation nologies will allow the United States to collect data, must often act in concert with others to create our communicate it to its forces in the field, and efficient¬ preferred international conditions and secure our ly eliminate specified targets. If the United States and basic national goals.” its allies are unable to share such crucial information with each But emphasis on close political The U.S currently other, the golden ring of coalitional relations with our allies does war fighting could prove illusory. not necessarily reflect actual outspencls Europe Bosnia provides an excellent military trends. The RMA, despite its example of potential C4ISR prob¬ awesome possibilities, could in some on defense by a lems facing future coalitions. cases actually dilute rather than solid¬ Initially, international forces in ify relations between the United ratio of 3-1. Bosnia were unable to communi¬ States and its traditional European cate with each other, virtually para¬ allies. This is true for several reasons. lyzing coalition operations. Over First, given its larger defense budget, the United time, such limitations were overcome, albeit in an ad States will be able to invest more than its allies in the hoc manner which would not be readily transferable experimental programs necessary to develop and inte¬ to future areas of conflict. In addition, improved coor¬ grate revolutionary technologies. Second, because the dination took time to implement, something future price tag associated with the RMA is so high and coalitions may not have. When asked what the biggest resources are scarce, the United States and its allies challenge was to closing the interoperability gap are assigning very different priorities to exploiting it. between the United States and its NATO allies, Adm. Third, and perhaps most important, the gap between Harold Geham, NATO’s supreme allied commander the United States and its European allies could widen responded that “the biggest challenge, of course, is because technological innovations associated with the that technology is moving so fast and each nation is RMA are causing doctrinal and organizational taking advantage of that technology differently.” changes within the U.S. that are not being reflected in allied forces. Since its inception, NATO has struggled with prob¬ lems of interoperability. However, the RM A adds a The Growing R&D Gap new component to this age-old problem. The Although the United States spends less on defense RMA promises to increase die speed, scope and charac¬ than it has in the past, it currently outspends Europe by ter of future battlefields, reducing die ability of RMA a ratio of almost 3-1. Perhaps more troubling than the and non-RMA forces to fight together effectively. The overall level of spending is the portion being devoted to question may thus be changing from “Can forces oper¬ R&D. The United Kingdom spends about six percent of ate together effectively?” to “Can they operate together its defense budget on R&D, down from 10 percent in at all?” It is possible that because of die RMA, the 1990. This is half of the 12-14 percent the United States alliance is developing along two separate axes — the spends on R&D. U.S. expenditures on R&D surpass United States providing the high-tech forces and the rest Germany’s entire defense budget. If tomorrows of Europe assuming classical war-fighting responsibili¬ weaponry comes directly from todays laboratories, this ties (including assuming more casualties). It is quite dif¬ disparity in R&D spending is a disturbing trend. ficult to imagine this two-tiered military relationship Not only is the U.S. spending significantly more on operating within a robust political framework.

30 FOREIGN SERVICE J OV RN Ah! SEPT EMB ER 1998 Focus

Who Needs Allies? The military revolution mitment but a very visible sign of The RMA has the potential to alter political support. R is a way of con¬ strategic relations between the United may well lead to great veying to the target, and to the States and its allies as well. international community, tirat there is Revolutionary technology will instability during a consensus behind a planned military increase the distance and speed at engagement. Military necessity often which American forces can operate. international crises. forces such concessions. Nonetheless, Not only are tanks and ships becom¬ they have important political ramifi¬ ing faster, but because targeting is cations. Most military planners fully becoming more efficient, fewer sorties are needed, understand tire importance of winning not only die mil¬ fewer troops are required, and therefore less materiel is itary battle, but the political one as well, because strate¬ needed on the battlefield. A lighter lift translates direct¬ gy, in its essence, is the military achievement of political ly into a faster mobilization. This trend has important ends. But the coming RMA is reducing the need for strategic consequences. Because of U.S. improvements, other states to commit militarily. This will make it traditional allies may come to believe that their support increasingly difficult to prove victorious on the political is not decisive and may therefore be eliminated. battlefield. Consider the role that bases and military support play not only in military operations, but in determining polit¬ Such problems were apparent in the February 1998 ical outcomes. For one state to allow anodrer access to crisis in which the United States threatened mili¬ its bases, or to its airspace, is not only a military com¬ tary force against Iraq unless it allowed U.N.

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weapons inspectors back into the coun¬ Coalitions are essen¬ positioned equipment located in try. A contained Iraq is in the interest the United Arab Emirates and not only of the United States, but of all tial in resolving crises, Bahrain. states in the region. Some were sur¬ Just as this trend is becoming prised that the U.S. State Department but the RMA may apparent in Europe and in the had difficulty achieving full Saudi Middle East, Asia is also question¬ Arabian support. It quickly became clear weaken U.S. alliances. ing some U.S. military requests. that while Saudi Arabia would allow the Japan, for example, is currently United States access to its airspace and pressuring the United States to bases for logistical support, it would not remove its forces from Okinawa. allow it to fly combat operations from The U.S. military’s astute response to this negative Saudi soil. Arab leaders were in a difficult position: they development is to explore new technologies and plat¬ did not want to appear to be pawns of the United States forms such as mobile off-shore bases that decrease but they fully recognized the Iraqi threat. Saudi Arabia reliance on local allies. Unfortunately, this only re¬ conveyed to the United States that given the kinds of enforces the trend toward military autarky and therefore missions that the United States intended to execute, exacerbates the problems discussed above. Saudi military support was unnecessary. Washington As the United States is able to conduct more of the could conduct its intended mission from afar: from battle from farther away, it will become less reliant on bases in Diego Garcia, from the U.S. itself, from aircraft local support. Also, as the United States develops the carriers located in the Persian Gulf and by using pre¬ ability to arrive at the theater of operations with greater

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32 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL! S EPT EMB ER 1998 Focus

speed, allied partners will be able to withhold support tems essential to this force — such as lasers, unmanned until later in the crisis. The consequence of this could be vehicles, and computer viruses — pose interesting, and that as the United States becomes increasingly powerful, in some cases extremely thorny, problems for anus con¬ it will become less adept at securing local support. Allies trol, technology transfer, and international commerce. may increasingly perceive that their military support is no longer necessary. Militarily, the United States will still This discussion should not be construed as an be able to accomplish its mission. Politically, its goals argument against proceeding with an RMA. become harder to achieve. However, we need to recognize that improved capabilities could have both positive and negative conse¬ The revolution in military affairs raises a number quences on U.S. international relations. The few analysts of questions, concerns and even problems for who have considered what the RMA means for the U.S. American diplomacy. The RM A force is informa¬ politically tend to stress only its opportunities. As the tion-intensive and will require a degree of surveillance above discussion shows, however, there are pitfalls asso¬ and intelligence about potential adversaries that can ciated with the RMA as well. It will therefore become impact — both for good and ill —- diplomatic activities increasingly important for those conducting American in the regions and nations in question. This force is also foreign policy to understand allied concerns about the highly lethal, very fast-moving and offensively oriented, RMA and recognize its many political consequences. By all of which can negatively impact foreign perceptions ol working through the problems discussed above now it U.S. intent and even the ability to manage crises where will be easier to avoid their negative repercussions in the this force is present. Finally, the technologies and sys¬ future. I

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SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREJGN SERVICE JOURNAL 33 Focus ON DIPLOMACY AND THE MILITARY

THE REAL “A” TEAM

U.S. SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES ARE ACTIVE AROUND THE GLOBE, OFTEN WORKING CLOSELY WITH EMBASSY TEAMS.

By Jon Gundersen and Stephen Howard

■ n April 1994, anarchy reined in die mean streets of Monrovia, Liberia. U.S. Ambassador William B. Milam referred to the time as “four long days the embassy remained hostage to the carnage and violence taking place outside the compound.” During those dangerous days over 2,100 people from 76 countries (including 436 Americans) were quietly and safely evacuated from the grounds of the U.S. embassy in Monrovia. It was the largest evacuation of American citizens since the fall of Saigon in April 1975. In the fall of 1996 over 2,200 Kurds, who had clandestinely cooperated with efforts to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein faced certain death as forces, allied with the Iraqi dictator, advanced on their mountain villages

34 FOREIGN SERVICE J OU RN AL/SEPT E M B ER I99S Focus

in northern Iraq. From September Last year, U.S. Special is deployed in at least 60 nations. through December 1996, these Kurds Last year it was deployed to 144 were quietly smuggled out of the Operations Forces nations in every region of the world. country, and eventually resettled in This joint force of soldiers, sailors small town America. were deployed to 144 and airmen is the Special Operations Forces (SOF) of the In the summer of 1996, the U.S. nations in every part United States. began to distribute a special edi¬ Why are SOF the force of the tion of the popular Superman of the world. future? Why are they relevant to comic book to the children of war- U.S. foreign policy objectives? torn Bosnia. Over one million copies Since the U.S. military, composed were distributed to the children of all ethnic groups. of large conventional and strategic forces, con¬ But this edition had a larger purpose than just to tributed to the end of the Cold War, why change a entertain. The purpose was to show the children of winning team? Many leading policy makers, includ¬ Bosnia the dangers of playing with landmines. The ing at the Pentagon, have asked this question. For comic books were effective. Since their publication much of our lifetimes, U.S. foreign policy was made and distribution there have been no civilian fatalities and measured by our relationship to the Soviet from mines. Considering Bosnia has over one million Union. We in the West were confronted by an antag¬ uncharted mines still undiscovered throughout the onistic, ideological rival — a rival with thousands of countryside, the reduction in deaths is a great nuclear weapons pointed directly at the U.S. Our achievement. world mission was dangerous and daunting, but real¬ Today, specially trained U.S. forces monitor the ly quite simple: to contain and ultimately roll back tenuous cease-fire in Bosnia and the undefined bor¬ the Soviet empire. This world was characterized by der between Peru and Ecuador. They train huge conventional and nuclear arsenals. The fact of Colombian forces in counter-narcotics and African the matter is that too many policy makers — diplo¬ forces in peacekeeping and humanitarian relief. They mats, politicians, and warriors alike — had become are responsible for countering the activities of terror¬ quite comfortable in this dangerous, yet strangely ists, narcotics traffickers and dealers of weapons of stable and predictable world. They did — and to mass destruction throughout the world. They are even some degree still do — object to major changes in protecting the endangered black rhinoceros from the base and force structure that characterized the poachers. Cold War. What do these seemingly disparate events have in common? All of the missions have been and are cur¬ The world, however, has changed. Today, we rently being conducted by an elite military force with¬ face a new world order — or disorder to be in the Department of Defense. It is the only U.S. mil¬ more precise. The world is perhaps a little less itary force that has as one of its primary missions the dangerous — after all a nuclear Armageddon (at least support of U.S. ambassadors and their country teams. between the United States and Russia) is less likely — It is a force that makes up only a little over one per¬ but it is much less stable. While we do not face super¬ cent of the Pentagon budget; yet on any given week it power antagonists like the Soviet Union, we face numerous regional antagonists from North Korea to Jon Gundersen, an FSO, was political advisor to the Iraq. We are also witnessing the emergence of new commander in chief of the U.S. Special Operations transnational security challenges from the prolifera¬ Command from July 1996 to July 1998. He is now tion of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemi¬ deputy chief of mission at U.S. Embassy Oslo. Lt. Col. cal and biological) to the rise of international cartels of Stephen Howard, USAF, is the deputy political advisor terrorists, narco-traffickers and mafias. to USSOCOM.

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 35 Focus

In todays complex and ever changing environment humanitarian demining capability to numerous war- virtually every scenario contemplated by the ravaged countries. Pentagon deals with low-level, often intra-state, SOF are regionally focused. They are carefully conflicts dominated by communal antagonisms and trained and prepared to be culturally astute in their operations other than war. The forces needed for chosen part of the world. This preparation includes these, as well as humanitarian and peacekeeping language training and linguistic capabilities found operations are exactly the types of missions the SOF nowhere else in the Department of Defense. They are are trained for. Furthermore, in an age of domestic often the first Americans a foreign military counter¬ pressures to downsize our presence overseas and part many encounter. Their task is daunting: to show, international sensitivities about sovereignty, it is through example, how a professional soldier operates extremely doubtful that the U.S. will be able to con¬ in a democratic society. tinue to deploy a large permanent force structure SOF training is long and arduous. The Army overseas. By the early 21st century, the U.S. military Special Forces, Navy SEALs, and Air Force Combat will increasingly employ Special Operations Forces in Control Team members are selected from an regional engagement forces during contingency oper¬ extremely competitive pool of applicants. The assess¬ ations to enhance operational impact while reducing ment and selection process eliminates 79 percent of the “force footprint.” SOF personnel are trained to all volunteers. Only military professionals with at least operate in small numbers and limit casualties, both four years of service are considered for most of the friend and foe. In the current geopolitical atmosphere SOF programs (the SEALs accept first-term sailors, peacetime engagement “shapes the battlefield” in a but put them through an extremely rigorous training way that could obviate the use of force. SOF are spe¬ program). These agile joint forces can develop and cially trained, organized and equipped to handle the execute unconventional, audacious, high-pay-off fluid complexities of current U.S. foreign policy and actions. provide the decision-makers an additional option SOF are usually deployed to foreign countries in short of war. operational detachment “A” teams (ODA for short). These ODAs, consisting of six to 14 people, work Tough Training for “A” Teams directly with foreign military forces to enhance train¬ Tlie United States Special Operations Command ing. Aside from developing military skills, there are (USSOCOM) was created in 1986 to deal specifically other advantages gained by the rapport and access with changing geo-political trends and emerging non- achieved by ODAs regularly visiting foreign countries. conventional threats to U.S. national interests. Long-term relationships and trust between military Although tasked with several core missions, the high¬ personnel is gained and maintained by the ODAs. est priority are the counterproliferation of weapons Another advantage the ODA has is that many of the of mass destruction and combating terrorism. In team members will spend a career in a specific region. addition, SOF are responsible for supporting numer¬ Their years of experience and personal contact ous peacekeeping operations and foreign military become invaluable when a crisis occurs, helping them training programs. Members of the SOF community gain access to sensitive areas. have supported NATO, the United Nations, and other international efforts on numerous and diverse Prior to the war against Iraq, U.S. Navy SEALs missions. SOF have trained other countries to pro¬ had worked with Saudi and Kuwaiti naval per¬ vide their own defense, rebuild destroyed infrastruc¬ sonnel. As early as 1987, U.S. SEALs helped ture, operate under democratic rules, and thwart the Saudi navy develop their own special operations narcotics trafficking. They have also trained military training program. Capt. Raymond Smith (now a rear and paramilitary organizations to identify and elimi¬ admiral and deputy commander-in-chief of U.S. nate mines and exploded ordnance, thus providing a Special Operations Command), was in charge of this

36 FOREIGN SERVICE j OU RN AL/SEPT EM B ER 1998 Focus

assistance program. When he In Bosnia, SOF troops OF have several primary mis¬ returned to the Persian Gulf in sions. Perhaps the two most 1990, Saudi personnel he helped gave away comic S demanding and critical are the train in 1987 were now key military counterproliferation of weapons of leaders. The shared experience from books warning mass destruction and combating ter¬ previous years facilitated a close, rorism. To date these have been sep¬ personal working relationship children about arate and different missions. between U.S. Navy special opera¬ However, as enemies of the U.S. tions forces and the forces in the landmines. look for new ways to harm our Saudi and Kuwaiti navies. national interests, there is the grow- During another crisis, prior expe¬ ing possibility that terrorism will rience and training kept a bad situation from getting reach new, even more heinous levels of destruction. worse. In April 1997, an ODA from the 3rd Special We believe our enemies learned from the war with Forces Group (A) deployed to Freetown, Sierra Iraq that it is suicide to confront the U.S. on a con¬ Leone, for Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET). ventional battlefield. However, by applying their The JCET training site was 20 miles outside strengths against our weaknesses, a dedicated enemy Freetown, near the airport used the previous year for may be able to asymmetrically defeat the U.S., as did a non-combatant evacuation operation. the Viet Cong against a conventionally superior U.S. force. An example of asymmetric warfare is the use of On 25 May, rebel forces and military members relatively inexpensive chemical weapons against vul¬ toppled the government, and for the next nerable civilian populations. As we’ve seen in the few days chaos reigned in Freetown. Once attacks on the World Trade Center and the Oklahoma shooting erupted at the training site, the Special federal building in our country and the Tokyo subway Forces soldiers manned security positions inside system by biological weapons, no one is immune from their compound and established very intermittent the use of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. contact with the embassy. SOF is preparing for these types of scenarios in order After receiving direction from the deputy chief of to be prepared for any potential challenge. mission, the A-Team loaded its two vehicles and headed for Freetown to provide security for the embassy. They passed through two rebel roadblocks Training foreign militaries consistent with our and near an army post without shots being fired. SOF democratic values (called Foreign Internal soldiers had dealt with the Sierra Leone military in a Defense or FID) is SOF’s most common mis¬ professional manner and had established excellent sion today. SOF uses Joint Combined Exchange rapport and mutual respect. A mere 13 soldiers saved Training (JCET) opportunities to improve their own the embassy from further looting, protected crucial cultural and instructional skills, while passing on pro¬ talks between senior ambassadors and the rebel lead¬ fessionalism and military skills to foreign foi'ces. SOF ers, and prevented firefights between the Marines are heavily engaged around the world helping current and the rebels. After five days, a larger U.S. force and potential allies to meet legitimate defense needs. arrived, and evacuated a total of 2,509 people These military forces encourage regional cooperation, (including 454 U.S. citizens) from the grounds of the maintain U.S. access, and visibly demonstrate the role U.S. embassy. But it was the Special Forces soldiers’ of a professional military in a democratic society. This so-called non-military skills — cultural sensitivity and ability to mold the international environment rather area familiarization — that paid large dividends by than merely respond to it, is SOF’s most important stabilizing the situation around the embassy during day-to-day contribution to national security. those crucial days of waiting. With the demise of the Cold War, FID operations

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 37 Focus

have focussed on peacekeeping and democracy build¬ “democratic fruit” in the future. ing. SOF has used its special skills and cultural aware¬ Working hand-in-hand with PSYOPs ai'e the Civil ness to support the African Crisis Response Initiative Affairs teams. These specialized professionals use their (ACRI), a program designed to develop African mili¬ civilian expertise to rebuild infrastructure and services tary peacekeeping forces to monitor problems arising to regions where political and civil strife have devastat¬ between African nations. Army special forces person¬ ed living conditions. Civil Affairs teams have worked in nel have worked with Ghana, Mali, Senegal, Uganda, Bosnia and Haiti to rebuild schools, reinstate govern¬ and Ethiopia (to name a few) to observe, evaluate and ment facilities and mechanisms, restore the “rule of report on these countries’ capabilities to contribute to law,” provide utilities, sanitation, and restore health the ACRI. Continued training and observation will facilities. By working closely with the host nation, non¬ hopefully provide a comprehensive program for Africa governmental organizations (NGOs), and the that rivals the Partnership for Peace organization in Department of State, Civil Affairs personnel make a Europe. The goal is to better enable local forces to long-term commitment and impact on developing a solve local conflicts. U.S. policy-makers want to avoid lasting peace. Through renewed prosperity and eco¬ situations in which they must either send in U.S. forces nomic development, supported by renewed services, to resolve a humanitarian crisis or else do nothing. struggling democracies can make progress in providing U.S. Ambassador Kenneth L. Brown stated in a let¬ a better future for their citizens. ter to USSOCOM after a successful SOF training in Ghana: “The Ghanaian military ... has uniformly The State-SOF Connection praised the dedication and professionalism of the Beginning with a meeting in June 1997 between Special Forces team .. JCET is a unique contribution Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and then- to our policy of building, within the [Ghanaian] mili¬ USSOCOM Commander in Chief Gen. Hugh Shelton tary, greater professionalism as well as increased (currently the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), understanding of and support for democratic institu¬ the Department of State and USSOCOM have initiat¬ tions.” ed a State-SOF engagement program. Because SOF Other missions performed by SOF are in the field of are deployed in every region of the world and are Psychological Operations and Civil Affairs. Almost all engaged in a wide range of activities in support of U.S. of these forces are reservists who are lawyers, doctors, ambassadors and their embassies, it seemed appropri¬ and engineers in civilian life. When called upon, these ate to develop a mechanism to more easily cross flow reservists have deployed to places like Bosnia and Haiti ideas and communication between Department of to help rebuild what was destroyed by civil war and State and SOF. conflict. To support this effort, USSOCOM, working with States Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs, has cooper¬ Psychological Operations (PSYOP) are designed ated on several programs designed to encourage com¬ to educate and persuade in regions of the world ments and suggestions from all DOS bureaus. This where communication is difficult or non-exis¬ DOS-SOF exchange engaging both regional and func¬ tent. Using cultural understanding and modern com¬ tional bureaus provides feedback to USSOCOM. This munications media, PSYOP forces have educated civil¬ feedback is used to better determine how SOF can ians about the dangers of landmines and unexploded meet the needs of the DOS, U.S. ambassadors, and ordnance. They have also planted the seeds that their country teams. helped formerly totalitarian military organizations One information exchange effort currently under learn to function in democratic societies and respond way is the Ambassadors’ Orientation Program. to civilian leadership. Long-term results in Central and Working in conjunction with the Foreign Sendee South America have already justified the effort. Institute and State’s Counter-Terrorism Office, Ongoing training opportunities in the former Soviet approximately four to six times each year USSOCOM Union and Warsaw Pact countries may also bear

38 FOREIGN SERVICE ] OU RN AIJ SEPT EM R ER I99S Focus

hosts briefings and demonstrations SOFs are the right tion from the regional CINC for ambassador designates in responsible for the ambassador’s Washington, D.C., and at Fort Bragg, tool for the military’s country. N.C. The vast majority of U.S. Second, the important of in ambassadors receive this briefing new job — countering briefs and out briefs. One of the prior to their new posting. most useful cross-training tools is USSOCOM also biannually sur¬ numerous small the requirement of SOF teams to veys U.S. ambassadors to ensure visit the relevant embassy both SOF deployed in their countries are threats. before and after (and perhaps dur¬ meeting the embassies’ require¬ ing) their in-country activities. ments. The feedback from U.S. Upon entering a new country the ambassadors helps USSOCOM judge SOF perfor¬ team will particularly benefit from an embassy brief¬ mance and, where appropriate, modify its training or ing on local conditions, whether it is the state of the operations to better serve the ambassadors posted local military by the defense attache or the presence overseas. of ethnic tensions by the political counselor. To improve overall information exchange, the State- SOF Engagement Program is coordinating closely to Conversely, upon leaving the country, the encourage attendance at State and SOF schools. The embassy will benefit from up-to-date SOF purpose of this effort is to encourage personnel from insights on local conditions, both military and State to attend relevant SOF schools and for SOF per¬ political. SOF often acquire a “ground truth” that sonnel to attend Foreign Service Institute courses. provides a perspective and insight found nowhere This is intended to expose State and SOF personnel to else. Both DOS and DOD personnel will obtain long¬ a wider range of ideas and shared experiences that will term benefits from the relationships forged in this foster closer cooperation in the future. interactive process. Currently, however, the practice As State and SOF acquire more and more shared of in-briefing and back-briefing is still more episodic experience, a few key lessons are emerging. than regularized. All key players should know that the relationship First, the value of cross-training. Everyone between DOD and DOS (as well as the ambassador connected with the SOF community, from and SOF) is symbiotic; each benefits from the other. ambassador, to the regional commanders in Just as SOF operate as a force multiplier for the chief (CINCs), to the SOF diplomat-warrior, should regional CINCs, they should also operate as force have a full understanding of the role of the ambas¬ multipliers for the local ambassadors. Their training sador and the country team before deployment. and experience can project American influence, pro¬ That’s why individually tailored briefing papers on tect American values, and increase American options each country are now available to SOFs before they in country. Of course, the regional CINCs control, as go into the field. Conversely, eveiy American ambas¬ they should, the actual operations and priorities of sador and key members of his team should under- SOF in the field. At the same time, no deployment stand the role of SOF in supporting the missions of will occur without the ambassador’s knowledge and the embassies. Much of this is already amply covered approval. through ambassadors’ orientations, now offered to In the brave new world of post-Cold War diplo¬ each new ambassador before deployment overseas. A macy, the Departments of State and Defense are standardized brief on the role of the ambassador and fated to share an ever closer relationship in promot¬ tbe country team is now being integrated into SOF ing U.S. national security interests. As we have seen, operator, pre-command and Senior Service courses. the nation’s Special Operations Forces play a vital Each new ambassador should also receive an orienta¬ role in this dynamic and evolving relationship. I

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 39 Focus ON DIPLOMACY AND THE MILITARY

DIPLOMACY, FORCE AND THE DIPLOMAT-WARRIOR

IT MAY NOT BE TRENDY,

BUT MILITARY POWER IS STILL

VITAL TO U.S. INTERESTS

BIJ Howard K. Walker

i sk a diplomat from any country what die major international problems of the 21st century will be, and he or she will most likely focus on “soft” diplomatic issues: economic and com¬ mercial interests, environmental protection and the wise use of scarce natural resources, international crime, terrorism and human rights. Little attention will be paid to “old-fashioned” issues such as the balance of power, arms control, border dis¬ putes, etiinic unrest and access to international resources, markets and transportation routes. Although these issues occu¬ py the best minds in foreign ministries across die globe, diere is stigma attached to diem because dieir resolution relies too much on using threat to resolve conflict.

40 FOREIGN SERVICE J OU RN Ah! SEPT EM BF.R 1998 Focus

A new type of leader Even the State Departments most warriors will need to understand and senior officers responsible for training will be required appreciate why and how the military' tomorrows diplomats promulgate this can be used to achieve diplomatic viewpoint. In speech after speech, the to manage 21st objectives and what operational con¬ directors general and die directors of straints the military faces in trying to the Foreign Service Institute have century crises: the achieve those objectives. emphasized that tomorrows diplomatic Military professionals are tr ained to agenda will emphasize these global and diplomat-warrior. think that the purpose of war is to commercial issues. defeat tire enemy by winning battles. Although tirese issues are important, this emphasis They are conditioned by training and experience to think minimizes diplomats’ need to leam more about how of applying force using optimum force design and pack¬ diplomacy and the use of force are linked, and how to aging, choke-point target selection and maximum make that linkage work well. The next decades may well destructive weapons selection. They are trained to think include a need for die diplomacy of force in die unsettled of the most effective time and place for an attack, tire best Balkans, perhaps elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and way to arrange the control and command of forces, the throughout diat grand arc of instability stretching from best way to establish rules of engagement and how to pro¬ North Africa dirough the Middle and Far East, where vide logistical support to forces. important interests are at stake. But coming international crises will also require the Even “soft” diplomatic issues often require military application of 19th century Prussian military theoretician assistance. For example, the military would play a role in Carl Maria von Clausewitzs dictum: ‘War is an extension providing humanitarian relief to victims of natural disas¬ of politics by other means.” Why? Because: ters and man-made humanitarian crises such as occurred • Total defeat of an enemy may not always be tire in Rwanda and Somalia in diis decade. It might provide diplomatic objective of a military action. Operation help with monitoring and evacuation at times of environ¬ Desert Storm is an example of such a strategy. mental catastrophe, assist in rescuing victims of terrorists, • Identifying one clear enemy will not always be easy. control sudden mass population movements and combat For example, which national, ethnic or religious group international organized crime. Pursuit of each of these most threatens stability' in the Balkans and other parts of “soft” 21st century crises will require symbiosis between Eastern Europe? Which clan or band of thugs most jeop¬ diplomacy and the military. ardized humanitarian relief in Somalia? • Key elements of military force plans can be con¬ Needed: A new hybrid strained by diplomatic and other political considerations. A new type of leader will be required to manage these For example, United Nations support and participation in crises in the 21st century. I call these hybrids soldier- coalitions can constrain military options for force design, diplomats and diplomat-warriors. They are soldiers who such as tire mix and composition of ground, ah' and mar¬ can also think like diplomats and diplomats who can think itime forces; selection of weapons and targets; rules of like soldiers. engagement (when and what do you shoot?); command It is important for soldier-diplomats to understand why and control (who’s in charge of the forces?); and logistics and how diplomacy operates to win international support and resupply arrangements. These constraints have all and how domestic political considerations constrain the played a role in military engagements requiring allied or way force is used to achieve military objectives. Diplomat- coalition forces since the end of the Cold War. Because public opinion, national budgets and geography will Howard K. Walker, a recently retired U.S. ambassador, require that military operations have an imprimatur from served as vice president of the National Defense University the United Nations and be conducted by military coali¬ in Washington and as deputy commandant for curriculum tions, the constraints will continue to be a fact of military planning at the NATO Defense College in Rome. engagement.

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 41 Focus

Senior military leaders from all countries know that it schools. The U.S. Department of State, for example, annu¬ is important for future generals and admirals to have ally assigns only 32 officers (three percent of drose eligible) the perspective of soldier-diplomats if the armed to its own national senior service schools. None are sent to forces want to have influence in their own country’s or in the NATO Defense College. an alliances policy. Military missions of tire future will Otirer reasons diplomats are scarce in these schools is require not only changes in standing force structure, mili¬ drat foreign ministries don’t have the same commitment as tary assets and force application doctrine, but also dre military to personnel development through education enhancement of the diplomatic and political sophistication and training and they lack tire military’s huge budgets for of their most promising officers. This kind of transforma¬ drat purpose. Consequently, development of soldier-diplo¬ tion will occur most often at war and defense colleges, mats is far ahead of production of diplomat-warriors. where military officers can mix and establish contacts with diplomats and foreign students. Enter the Diplomat-Warrior These schools include lectures by scholars and military To bridge tire gap, foreign ministries must first appreci¬ and diplomatic practitioners, seminars, student research ate drat if diplomats are to become effective, they must projects and field trips designed to teach students about develop tire skills of diplomat-warriors. They must learn to international conflicts in the coming years. Their curricu¬ manage crisis teams like military officers, by identifying lum includes negotiation techniques, a recognition that which components a military operation might need in pur¬ modem warfare and peacekeeping missions decentralize suit of a diplomatic objective and by assessing tire diplo¬ command so that cease-fire and other negotiations may matic consequences of those operational requirements. often be on-the-spot and ad hoc and will be conducted by Witirout a good understanding of dre military mind, diplo¬ field commanders as well as headquarters staff. In addi¬ mats cannot be expected to execute diplomacy by force. tion, students learn about international organizations and These are tire types of questions tirat have bedeviled diplo¬ their purposes and nongovernmental organizations wffh mats during tire Bosnia crises and during extended prob¬ whom todays military must cooperate. lems in Iraq. Moreover, the mix of students from other nations’ For example, before deciding if air strikes could be armed forces as well as other U.S. government agencies effective in a given situation, diplonrat-waniors should gives all students better understanding of other national know how to decide the diplomatic consequences of using and institutional cultures and an opportunity to make military force. In order to do drat, they will have to leanr to invaluable personal contacts. speak the language of tire military: Which targets will Most important, these schools instill a temperament for achieve the best response? Which weaponry has the best working in alliances and building consensus in future mili¬ chance of hitting the targets? What are likely to be the tary leaders. The trick is, they must instill this attitude for resulting damages and casualties in such an operation? cooperation in military men and women without weaken¬ What rules of engagement must be employed for success¬ ing their taste for victory, a taste which any military force ful execution of the operation? Who vvlll be in charge of needs if it is to be effective. tire forces? What logistical and supply support will be nec¬ Unlike military men and women, diplomats are already essary for the operation? What are tire likely consequences trained in the social science of international relations, of the operation on force readiness? international conflicts, the framework of international organizations, how international alliances and coalitions Diplomatic-military teamwork — so essential to operate, negotiating techniques and working in a multicul¬ effective security policy planning and manage¬ tural setting. They are versed in mastering die art of die ment in coming decades — will be weakened if possible and accept drat many international problems can both sides do not have confidence tirat each respects tire only be managed, never solved. others professional concerns. Diplomats who don’t trust In part for drat reason, foreign ministries do not place a military leadership are likely to try to nricro-nranage mili¬ high premium on sending diplomats to military service tary operations with adverse consequences. Military lead-

42 FOREIGN SERVICE J O U RN AL/SEPT EM B ER 1998 Focus

ers who don’t trust diplomats’ realism We must teach service schools and senior education regarding security policy may not defer courses in schools of diplomacy that to the supremacy of civilian authority in military officers the will help educate budding diplomat- these matters. warriors. If diplomats don’t give adequate skills of consensus attention to military leaders’ concerns uch a curriculum for diplomats about the effectiveness and success of without weakening should include how to write mili¬ military operations, military leaders will S tary operations plans and simulat¬ lose confidence in diplomats’ realism. their taste for victory. ed crisis management exercises that Diplomats can easily jeopardize military provide the opportunity for diplomats success and safety of forces by restrict¬ to practice assessing requirements and ing rules of engagement or tar get selection, by risking consequences of military operations. A useful model force readiness or overextending force deployment and would be the simulation exercise used by the North committing ruined forces to military operations before Atlantic Council, NATOs collection of senior diplomats, to there is clear public support for them or before there is understand the military operations requirements mid con¬ enough political will to seek public backing. sequences of their policy recommendations in the Balkans. This type of commitment to a professional develop¬ No Aneurysms, Please ment program by foreign ministries would also require a On the other hand, diplomats’ and other civilian lead¬ strong commitment to professional development, a com¬ ers’ confidence in the military’s sophistication regarding mitment that most defense ministries have already made. diplomacy and politics about the use of force will be weak¬ It means allocating significant portions of the foreign min¬ ened if military leadership appears to have greater concern istries’ budgets and the commitment of senior diplomats to for die well-being and reputation of the anned forces t han participating in education and training classes as lecturers for the success of the mission. There are disturbing reports and mentors. Almost as crucial, this new cadre of diplo¬ of instances of lack of confidence on both sides over these mat-waniors will have to be rewarded with career-enhanc¬ types of issues. Gen. Colin Powell, former chairman of the ing assignments and promotions to ensure that this Joint Chiefs of Staff, recalled in his 1995 memoir, My becomes an attractive' option for diplomats. American Journey, one exchange over Bosnia. He writes In addition, foreign ministries’ policy planning staffs about a high-level meeting held in the White House at should pay more attention to producing analyses, con¬ which then-U.N. ambassador Madeleine Albright dismiss¬ structing scenarios and conducting crisis management and es his arguments against stronger military action in Bosnia. contingency exercises for conducting the diplomacy of ‘What’s the point of having this superb military that you’re force, all with participation from defense ministry partners. always talking about if we can’t use it?” she asked. Finally, as pat of their effort to enhance tire capabilities “I thought I would have an aneurysm,” recalled Powell. of diplomats to work in a military environment, foreign min¬ He considered her attitude frivolous, as if the forces were istries should explore strengthening the hand of diplomat- “toy soldiers to be moved around on some global game warriors in the field by giving them authority over “theater” board.” diplomatic operations aid resources aid institutionalized direct access to government leaders, similar to that enjoyed Right now, die defense establishments of many by CINCs and other major regional commanders. countries devote attention to developing soldier- Clearly, it is in the interests of the United States to diplomats. In order to bridge the gap, however, develop a cadre of soldier-diplomats and diplomat-war¬ foreign ministries will need to devote the same kind of riors who can work together as a team to manage the diplo¬ attendon to developing diplomat-warriors. First, foreign macy of force in the 21st century. If we can pursue mea¬ ministries must work with their defense ministry coun¬ sures such as those described above, we will improve our terparts to develop a curriculum for both senior military chances of achieving that goal. ■

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 43 SENATORIAL CONSENT

You Cant Leave Horne Without It

BY DANIEL FISK

ou’ve just received a call about to get a personal civics lesson on separa¬ Y from the White House tion of powers. Suddenly you recall others who informing you that you have been subjected to the exercise: would-be that you have passed the Supreme Court Justice Robert Bork, almost vetting process and will Secretary of Defense John Tower, erstwhile soon be nominated to the envoy Robert Pastor, ambassador manque rank of ambassador. You William Weld. The path before you is strewn don’t care whether it’s to Paris or Paramaribo. with careers that might have been. You vow not After years of surviving in the “kiss up, kick to be among the dead or missing in action. down” Foreign Service, you’ve finally made it. You’ll finally be addressed as Mr. or Madam When I worked on the ambassadorial con¬ ambassador. firmation process, first as a staff member But first you’ll have to get through a process and then as associate counsel for the Senate that has engendered more fear and loathing in Foreign Relations Committee from 1994 to wannabe chiefs of mission than all the political 1997, it always surprised me how little career ambassadors for whom career FSOs have diplomats knew about the legislative branch. served: confirmation by the United States FSOs could negotiate the diplomatic cocktail Senate. Suddenly your career flashes before your circuit with ease or manipulate an inter-agency eyes. As a Foreign Service officer, you’ve spent meeting with aplomb, but they often lacked years studying, analyzing and interpreting other rudimentary knowledge about the ways of governments. Except for paying taxes and the Congress. Ambassadorial appointees frequently occasional COD EL, you’ve mostly avoided your gave the denizens of Capitol Hill the impression own government’s machinations, but you are that FSOs, as anointed “foreign policy profes¬ sionals,” were deigning to share their superior Daniel Fisk, who worked for the SFRC from 1994 knowledge with a bunch of yahoos. to 1997, is now a teaching associate in the This type of attitude can be costly if you want Department of Political Science at Arizona State to be an ambassador. So, in the spirit of inter¬ University and an adjunct fellow of the Center for branch cooperation, I offer the following “rules” Strategic and International Studies in to members of the ambassadorial class of 1998- Washington, D.C. 99 as they present themselves for the U.S.

44 FOREIGN SERVICE ]OURNAUSEPTEMBER 1998 Senate’s advice and consent. been confirmed. In 1994, during the ambas¬ First, remember that the U.S. Congress is a sadorial confirmation hearings for Robert Pastor separate but equal branch of the U.S. govern¬ to become ambassador to Panama, State pub¬ ment with its own dynamics, history and yes, lished a list of “currently serving ambassadors” eccentricities. U.S. senators take seriously their and included Pastor, who was then director of constitutional requirement to vote yea or nay on the Latin American and Caribbean Program at ambassadorial nominations. You should have Emory University’s Carter Center. In arguing some appreciation for — and not just fear of — against Pastor’s nomination, the institution that may determine your fate. Jesse Helms of North Carolina, Don’t assume that you’ll be confirmed just then ranking SFRC Republican, because you’ve made it through State’s assign¬ ironically noted Pastor’s prema¬ A nomination process ments process and have been cleared by the ture “promotion.” Even though White House. While it is true that some senators Pastor hadn’t put his own name is not a negotiation. are inclined to defer to the president on nomi¬ on the list, it didn’t help him. nees, most legislators aren’t overly impressed Remember, you are not mister Yon are not in good with a presidential imprimatur since, almost to a or madam ambassador until the position to bargain, senator, they have pretensions of some day sit¬ Senate says you are, or until the ting in the Oval Office themselves. president is willing to risk unless yon see your unpleasantness over a recess Second, remember the name of the president appointment, an unlikely nomination as a quest who nominated you. One nominee opened prospect for a career ambas¬ his hearing by thanking the previous White sador. for martyrdom, not House occupant for naming him ambassador. Fifth, FSOs are trained to Fortunately, he was a former senator and suf¬ make everyone feel “equal,” but an embassy. fered only momentary embarrassment in front that is not how it’s done in the of his former colleagues. Such courtesies don’t U.S. Senate. If there is no round extend to anyone who hasn’t been a member of table around which to conduct the senatorial club, though. negotiations, FSOs rearrange the furniture so Third, if you have never served in Congress, that there is no greater or lesser sense of signifi¬ find a sitting senator or member of the House of cance among participants. The few round or oval Representatives to introduce you at your hear¬ tables that exist in the U.S. Senate are for sena¬ ing. This can be a problem since so many FSOs tors. You are the president’s nominee, but in the live in Maryland, Virginia or the District of eyes of those who will give their advice and con¬ Columbia. Representatives from those states are sent on your nomination, you are not equal. less likely to introduce everyone that parades before the SFRC for confirmation. If you are Sixth, a nomination process is not a negotia¬ from “Outside the Beltway,” you should have tion. You are not in good position to bargain, better luck. You’ll get points from the committee unless you see your nomination as a quest for for getting a legislator’s endorsement. And the martyrdom, not an embassy. Cooperate with the legislator will get points for supporting someone committee and staff handling your nomination. from “back home.” Don’t assume, however, that Seventh, you will discover just how small a means you will automatically win votes on the city Washington, D.C. is when you go up to committee. Capitol Hill for confirmation. You may have Fourth, make sure the State Department avoided Congress, but be assured that your col¬ doesn’t start promoting you before you have leagues know how to dial a phone and use a fax.

SEPTEMBER 199S/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 45 extensive research. You may even A committee’s best sources about argue that there is safety in reading nominees are the people with from a prepared text. Still, it is rare whom they have worked or had FSO-speak may be the that something comes out of a con¬ professional contacts, not the end¬ firmation hearing that will throw a less stream of official paper and language of diplomacy, nomination into turmoil. Talk to the forms that usually accompany nom¬ committee. Do not read them the inations. bat it doesn 7 impress following fill-in-the-blank state¬ Eighth. remember that State’s anyone who hasn 7 been ment (which they’ve heard all too legislative affairs bureau, also often before): known as “H,” works for the secre¬ trained as an FSO. tary of State, not you. Be loyal to /would like to thank President the secretary, be prepared to and Secretary defend the president’s and the sec¬ for nominating me. I am honored retary’s policies and be ready to and, if confirmed, look forward to push the H bureau to protect your trained as an FSO. Too often, nom¬ serving in . Our rela¬ interests. When I was on the SFRC inees try to imitate William F. tions with are improving, staff, information about a nomi¬ Buckley, Jr. in speech (not politics) and has taken steps to nee’s not-so-positive performance by using multisyllabic words and (open its markets, reform reviews was leaked to me. The complex sentences and come off its economy, and implement democ¬ nominee took charge of the prob¬ sounding like the fictional home- racy). just com¬ lem and badgered the H bureau to improvement maven played by Tim pleted a successful democratic elec¬ arrange a meeting to discuss the Allen on “Home Improvement,” tion, where the incoming reviews and answer all questions to who often sounds confused instead government, with which I am look¬ the committee’s satisfaction. As a of clear. ing forward to working, has result, the nominee was confirmed. Don’t answer in nuances or to promised to (save the rain please a senator or State forest, respect human rights, fight Ninth, Congressional staff are Department superior in the name drugs, respect property rights, professionals, not just pains in of “diplomacy.” This tactic can repay its debt, buy more American the (pick an anatomical part). They, come back to haunt you. It is better products, etc.). And if confirmed, I too, are “foreign policy profession¬ to have an honest and open dis¬ will work to (protect als.” Often, they have expertise, agreement over a policy than to American interests, save the rain information and contacts surpass¬ answer diplomatically and appear forest, protect intellectual property ing yours and they will use that disingenuous or dishonest. rights) and advance our mutual knowledge to your disadvantage. Senators and staff will respect you goals of (promoting democracy, The first rule to which all staff sub¬ more if you are honest, even if they implementing sustainable develop¬ scribe is to make sure that the com¬ do not like what they hear. ment, etc.) mittee isn’t confronted with any surprises about a nominee. As a Eleventh, most confirmation result, some staff have a reputation hearings are routine, if not Let’s be honest. Many of the for psychologically torturing nomi¬ boring. The toughest part is intro¬ places career ambassadors are nees in an effort to get them to ducing your family. The statements likely to be sent will provide them “come clean” before issues reach you make during discussions with with adventure and introductions to the committee. staff prior to the hearing are more wonderful people, but as places to Tenth, do not deliver a important, so stop reading from live, work and raise a family, they demarche to Congress as if it were prepared texts. Yes, I know, you’ve can have their limitations. That’s just another third-world country. put a lot of time and anguish into why so many of them have immi¬ Speak English and don’t use double these statements and even driven gration problems, which you’ll have negatives. FSO-speak may be the the desk officer of the country to to deal with once you are con¬ language of diplomacy, but it does¬ which you hope to be sent slightly firmed. The folks who live where n’t impress anyone who hasn’t been mad by making him or her do you will be going know the place’s

46 FOREIGN SERVICE ] OU RN AL! SEPT EM BF.R 199S FEATURE

ANATOMY OF A FAILED NOMINATION BY DANIEL FISK

By the time Sen. Jesse Helms, chairman of the governor of Massachusetts. Rep. Kennedy’s uncle, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and ur-neme- Sen. Ted Kennedy, was Weld’s most active support¬ sis of ambassadorial nominees, gaveled his commit¬ er in the White House. By getting Weld out of the tee to order September 12, 1997 in the SFRC’s way in Mexico, Kennedy hoped to clear the path to main hearing room in the Dirksen Senate Office the governors office for his nephew — at least until Building to discuss the fate of would-be ambassador family problems forced Joe to withdraw from the William Weld, battle lines had already been drawn race. by the media. Weld had recently resigned as Weld also let everyone know that he was bored in Republican governor of Massachusetts to seek the the governor’s mansion. First, he challenged Sen. prize of an embassy in Mexico. According to popu¬ John Kerry (D-Mass.) and lost. Then, apparently lar wisdom, his nomination signaled either a feeling little loyalty to Massachusetts Republicans, Machiavellian plot by Bill Clintons White House to he sought other opportunities. By the time his nom¬ split the Republican Party, a battle for the soul of ination came before the SFRC, both Republicans the Republican Party with Chairman Helms repre¬ and Democrats regarded his behavior as cavalier senting the isolationist right wing and Weld and and disloyal. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) representing the Finally, Weld’s nomination offered an opportuni¬ internationalist, moderate wing, or both. ty for Senate rivals to confront each other. In 1986 The reason for the meeting was a written request Sen. Helms, who has seniority, used Senate rules to from Sen. Lugar and others on the committee replace Sen. Lugar as senior ranking Republican — requesting that the chairman hold a special meeting then a minority position — on the SFRC. Lugar did on the Weld nomination. Under SFRC rules, Helms not take Plehns’ accession well, and was even less had three days to call a meeting. If he didn’t, the enthusiastic when Helms became chairman when dissident senators could set their own date. Lugar tlie Republicans won back die Senate in January- spearheaded the move because he drought he had 1995. When asked by NBC’s “Meet the Press” if his enough votes to get Weld out of committee, but grudge against Helms played a role in his support of Senate rules don’t say that a vote must be taken at a Weld, Lugar answered, “I don’t plead totally guilty, special meeting. As chairman, Helms controlled the but partially guilty.” right to recognize speakers, so he avoided the dissi¬ At stake for Lugar was control of the SFRC. If dents. When he recognized Sen. Joe Biden of his maneuver to force a vote had succeeded, he Delaware, a Weld supporter, Biden did not move would have wielded de facto power over the com¬ the vote. The White House had no choice but to mittee, even though Helms would have remained withdraw the nomination. chairman. This ploy held no risk for Lugar, who is But don’t let Sen. Lugar’s reputation as a foreign no worse off than he was before the failed coup. policy expert, his willingness to differ with Helms, Helms was going to oppose Weld regardless of or his prior role as chairman of the SFRC confuse Lugar’s maneuvers. In the end, the balance of you. The Weld debacle was not just a fight among power remained unchanged. constituencies on the SFRC. William Weld was The Weld nomination proves the old rule: nominated by President Bill Clinton to become Senators may support a nominee, but they are ambassador to Mexico because the Kennedy family always more concerned with broader political wanted to help Rep. Joseph Kennedy II become issues. ■

SEPTEMBER 1998/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 47 problems. So should you. It’s refreshing to hear a nominee say many diplomatic receptions 1 have to something that doesn’t sound like it miss. If confirmed, I will work to has been lifted from a travel Its refreshing to hear a (improve my language skills, catch brochure or written by a high up on some reading, lower my golf school student plagiarizing from an nominee say- something handicap) and spend as much foreign encyclopedia. Yes, you will have aid as I can. that doesn't sound like it “read in” on the country, but this Twelfth, have a sense of humor, will not always make you more has been lifted from a but don’t be a smart-ass. This may knowledgeable than those to whom work if you want to be elected gov¬ you are reading. While you wax on travel brochure or writ¬ ernor of a certain northeastern state with platitudes, here is what com¬ that begins with “M” and in which mittee members and staff are hear¬ ten by a high school stu¬ the family of the first Irish-Catholic ing: president is very influential (see dent plagiarizing from sidebar), but it is not the road to confirmation. would like to thank the presi¬ an encyclopedia. And finally, a fashion tip: Get rid of dent and secretary for finally those half-rimmed glasses. You may recognizing my foreign policy genius think they give you a serious, thought¬ and for allowing me to be nominated ful air. Wrong. They make you look like before others in my A-100 class. If a librarian or a demented headmaster. confirmed, which should be a fore¬ “Mr./Madam Ambassador. ” Our rela¬ When you tilt your head down to read gone conclusion once you see how I tions with are not what they text through them, it is hard to tell avoid saying anything of substance, I should be, but my job is to promote whether you are listening to or look fonoard to being called American interests regardless of how smelling those speaking to you. ■

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A WINDOW pressure to codify the Clinton post- richly praises for their untiring efforts. Soviet foreign policy with a “single And like most of the rest these speech¬ HALF OPEN grand concept” to replace contain¬ es do not leap off the page with the ment. Christopher chose three princi¬ vigor or colorful rhetoric of a In the Stream of History: Shaping ples as the “pillars” of the Clinton Madeleine Albright, nor do diey carry Foreign Policy for a New Era vision: economic security, a strong mil¬ the authoritative scholarship of a Warren Christopher, Stanford itary and support for global democracy. Henry Kissinger. They are instead University Press, 1998, hardcover, 586 Those were the basic ideas in his first forceful in a quiet, determined way pages, $22.95 speech at his Senate confirmation that fits die tone and vision of the hearing in January 1993. bankers son from tiny Scranton, N.D. BY BENJAMIN R. JUSTESEN Forty-one speeches later, at his In diplomacy, after all. speeches are farewell to State Department employ¬ rarely meant to entertain. As This annotated collection of ees in January 1997, Christopher Christopher reminds us, they should speeches given by former Secretary of sounded a rare note of tired whimsy. be strategic, conceptual, tactical and State Warren Christopher between There were tiiree ways to respond to a bureaucratic. To this list ought now to 1993 and 1997 grew out of his desire to crisis, he said: the easy way, the stub- be added a fifth purpose: to teach. “give the reader a window into our bom way, or the hard way. One could Witii this volume, Christopher has put diplomacy.” The book will not open the “take a bat to the beehive,” “wash ones the words he once spoke to practical window as far as many would like, but hands and walk away” or “persevere use as a resource for a new, serious then it is not meant to be a memoir or until a solution is found.” One kxik at audience. an encyclopedia. that proud, wean7 figure overlooking The most interesting parts of the the C Street lobby that winters day Benjamin R. Justesen, a freelance collection are the surprisingly revealing told die hundreds of admiring faces writer and former FSO, served in Riga, prologue and epilogue, in which below tiiat he had chosen the third. Singapore, Paramaribo, Copenhagen Christopher details Iris personal rea¬ The tide, In the Stream of History, and Kingston. sons for accepting President Bill is taken from a cryptic reference by Clintons appointment and looks ahead Associate Supreme Court Justice to diplomacy in the 21st century. The William O. Douglas to Christopher ADVICE TO A rest of the book gives readers a rare when he clerked for the brilliant glimpse behind the scenes of foreign eccentric after graduating from NEW STATESMAN policy speechwriting and into die rea¬ Stanford Law School. When sons certain topics get pushed to the Christopher asked his boss for advice Arts of Power: Statecraft and podium and others don’t. The speech¬ about his future, Douglas said, “Get Diplomacy es, which cover all the world’s regions out in the stream of history, and swim Charles W. Freeman Jr., U.S. Institute and hot diplomatic topics, are accom¬ as fast as you can.” of Peace Press, 1997, softcover, 159 panied by scene-setting essays. This is The single longest section deals pages, $14.95 a readable, if not an exciting, lxxik. with “Bringing Peace to Bosnia.” It Warren Christopher became secre¬ comprises four speeches which the BY DAVID REUTHER tary of State at a critical moment dur¬ Secretary made in November and ing the transition to the first December 1995, both during and after In this pithy book, Charles W. Democratic administration in a dozen the Dayton negotiations. Like the rest Freeman, Jr., former ambassador to years. He immediately faced serious of Christophers speeches, diese were Saudi Arabia and author of the with challenges, not the least of which was penned by die staff of writers he so The Diplomat’s Dictionary, embraces

50 FOREIGN SERVICE ] O U RN AL/S E PT E M B E R 199S B 0 0 A 5

realist diplomacy. Writing as if he were The last third of the book, though, armed conflict than one based on real¬ giving Machiavellian advice to a wdl interest FSOs most. In it, istic accommodation of antagonists.” thoughtful statesman, Freeman argues Freeman discusses the skills and Freeman has written a beautiful that America, with its military, intelli¬ worth of diplomats, who have respon¬ treatise on the tools of diplomacy. But gence and diplomatic assets, is best sibility for nurturing foreign friends, the democratic dilemma is how to served by this diplomatic tradition. neutralizing doubters and cultivating achieve consensus on policy goals; Freeman has a broad vision. He alliances. In addition, he argues diat democracy is concerned widi ends, counsels that America has a hierarchy diplomats also have the professional not means. Certainly that is why so of interests in an uncertain world and responsibility of playing scapegoat for many mourn the loss of the Cold War. that proper mustering of spies, soldiers statesmen confronted witii domestic When foreign policy was directed at a and diplomats is needed to arm the political problems. clear enemy, fear of danger held in statesman against all dangers. The role domestic politics plays in check competing democratic interests Devoting a chapter to each profession, foreign policy, writes Freeman, is a and generated money to pay for spies, Freeman outlines die vital role of each structural problem for all democracies armies and diplomats. Without a clear in die joint venture which is diplomacy. in which special interest groups exert villain upon which to train its sights, Spies are necessary because they seek their influence and ideas. While die many fear that America may neglect what others would hide and intelli¬ statesmans goal should be dre devel¬ die means to avoid future peril and gence operations reduce die measure opment of shared values, a “foreign become blind to danger. ■ of uncertainty in die world. An ade¬ policy based mainly on the impulse to quate military helps maintain peace propagate principles and ideas is, in David Heather, a former FSO, is a because “die price of peace is die fact, more disruptive to international China specialist and frequent con¬ deterrence of challenges.” order and more likely to generate tributor to the Journals book review r Need Auto Paris NOW? Northern Virginia Homes State-Side Auto Supply is your world-wide professional Property Management Division supplier of auto parts and accessories for all makes and models of automobiles manufactured for the U.S. market. 11094-A Lee Highway, Suite 103 • Fairfax, Virginia 22030 703-934-8801 • Fax 703-934-8802 • We will get you the correct part FAST - usually in less than 7 days. • If you are not sure of the exact parts, hardware or RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY accessories you need, call us for assistance and we will help you place your order. MANAGEMENT • We accept all Government PO’s as well as personal orders, and we give priority attention to urgently Visit our web site for detailed information needed items. http://www.northernvahomes.home.ml.org • No order is too large or too small! • Experienced • Licensed Slate-Side • Professional • Insured Auto Supply • Reliable • Competitive Rates 211 Southwest Rd., Canterbury, NH USA 03224 • E-mail: [email protected] PHONE: 603-783-9361 • FAX: 603-783-0257 Order forms sent on request We accept VISA and MasterCard Call Bob Chisholm today ^ E-Mail:nvhprop@ mnsmc.com PHONE OH FAX YOUR ORDER 24 HRS. A DAY. 7 DAYS A WEEK J

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SEPTEMBER 1S8B/FQREIQN SERVICE JOURNAL 55 POSTCARD FROM ABROAD In Search of Mongolia’s Mongol Past

BY SUSAN E. STAYER

Geuglii.s Khan, who in the 13th monastery in Mongolia. Named century cut a destructive path Erdenezuu (“Jewel” in Mongolian), the across China, Central Asia and Buddhist monks monastery was active until the 1930s, Russia as far as the Black Sea, liked to when Communist purges led to die get out and see the sights. “One of the have returned destruction of most Buddhist temples joys of travel,” he is rumored to have in the country. Though not destroyed, said, “is visiting new towns and meet¬ to Karakoram, Erdenezuu was abandoned and fell ing people.” into disrepair, its library, solid gold fig¬ Genghis not only visited new cities, Genghis Khan s ures and embroidered hangings hid¬ he built them. In 1220, he chose den by local herdsmen. The Karakoram in the heart of what is ancient capital. Mongolian government allowed today Mongolia as the site of his vast Erdenezuu to re-open as a museum in empires capital. 1965 and some of its objects were The drive to Genghis’ ancient returned as museum pieces. When Mongol capital takes four horn's from religious freedom was reinstated in Ulaanbaatai; Mongolia’s modem one. Mongolia in 1990, Buddhist monks, The asphalt road alternates with a dirt Communist past. called lamas, returned. Today 70 prac¬ stretch and meanders among rolling In ancient times, the walled city tice their religion in the monastery, a lulls covered with purple, red, yellow covered 16 square kilometers and con¬ reminder of tlie ancient capital’s glo¬ and white wild flowers. Few Western tained royal courts, markets and ware¬ ries. or Mongolian tourists make tire trek. houses for goods brought by foreign Erdenezuu is a square complex In ancient times the approach to traders as well as businesses and resi¬ with white walls that sits on flat, grassy tire city was guarded on four sides by dences. Marco Polo reported that a sil¬ land at die city’s outskirts. Only three of turtle sculptures, but only two of these ver fountain in the town’s center its original 80 temples survive. With remain, their features weathered by spewed milk, beer, wine and airag (fer¬ Mongolians again turning to time. The streets of the modem city mented mares milk) for drinking. The Buddhism, Erdenezuu is a seminary are similarly worn, lined with silent, city’s other major attraction was the for training young monks. Tourists are fenced residential complexes. Inside 2,500 square-meter large “Palace of allowed inside only when the monks tlie fences modest wooden houses, Worldly Peace,” an imposing edifice are not at worship. where families live in summer, sit built of wood, brick and stone that was During services, a windowless room alongside gers, Mongolian circular used as a meeting hall, home for the in one of the temples is filled with the tents, which prove warmer in winter. royal court and hotel for visiting digni¬ musty smell of incense. On die main The city’s business is conducted out of taries. Karakoram remained a capital altar, small gold statues of Buddha dilapidated one-and two-story con¬ city for only 35 years, until Kublai stand alongside sacred religious texts crete buildings, a legacy of its Khan, Genghis’ grandson, moved Iris called sutras. Lamas with shaved capital to Beijing. heads, dressed in saffron robes and sit¬ Susan Stayer was coordinator of After tire collapse of the Mongol ting on square, red cushions chant the Community Liaison Office in empire in 1368, Karakoram was aban¬ ancient Tibetan prayers in unison. Ulaanbaatar until February. The doned, then destroyed by Chinese sol¬ After abandonment and destrucdon, stamp is courtesy of the AAFSW diers. In 1586 tlie bricks of its mins die monastery has found a place in Bookfair “Stamp Comer. ” were used to build the first Buddhist Mongolia’s spiritual revival. ■

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