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Retail Sector India

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Retail Sector
India

December 2013

Produced by:

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- 1 -

Table of Contents

5. Semi-Processed Food Market 6. Frozen Processed Food and Ready Meals 7. Milk and Cheese

I. Retail Sector Overview

1. Retail Sector Highlights 2. Main Sector Indicators

8. Beverage and Cigarette Highlights

9. Alcoholic Beverage Data

3. Retail Sector Snapshot

4. FMCG Market Snapshot
10.Beer and Cigarette Data
5. Number and Size of Stores in India

6. Indian Retail in Global Rankings 7. Major Players by Retail Format 8. Retail Sector Forecast
11.Soft Drink and Bottled Water Highlights 12.Soft Drinks and Bottled Water

III.Personal Hygiene and Care, Detergents

1. Personal Hygiene Highlights 2. Personal Hygiene Market 3. Personal Hygiene Market Forecast 4. Personal Care Highlights

9. Retail Sector Forecast (cont’d)

10.Indian Population and the Retail Market 11.New Rules for FDI in Multi-Brand Retail 12.Government Policy

13.Government Policy (cont’d)

14.Employment
5. Skincare 6. Color Cosmetics

8. Dishwashing and Laundry Care

II. Food & Beverages

1. Packaged Food Market 2. Ready-to-Eat Market 3. Confectionery Highlights 4. Bread

IV. Apparel and Footwear

1. Apparel Market

2. Apparel Market (cont’d)

3. Athletic Apparel and Footwear 4. Other Apparel

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Table of Contents

3. Carrefour Wholesale Cash&Carry India Pvt. Ltd. 4. TESCO/Trent

V. Consumer Durables

1. Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances – SWOT
Analysis
5. IKEA

2. Consumer Durables Snapshot

3. White Goods

6. Future Retail Ltd.

7. Reliance Retail
4. Brown Goods 5. Consumer Electronics 6. Consumer Durable Financing in India

VI. Other Segments

1. Pharmaceuticals 2. Motor Vehicles 3. Luxury Goods

VII. E-Commerce (B2C)

1. E-Commerce Highlights 2. E-Commerce in India Snapshot 3. E-Tailing Data

4. E-Commerce – Ecosystem and Challenges

VIII. Major Players

1. Top M&A Deals 2. Bharti Retail Pvt. Ltd.

Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.

- 3 -

I. Retail Sector Overview

India’s fiscal year runs from Apr 1 to March 31. Thus, FY 2013 (also called fiscal 2013) means Apr 1, 2012 – Mar 31, 2013. In Indian documents, FY (fiscal) 2013 is also labeled FY12-13. The remaining nine months of calendar 2013, i.e. Apr-Dec, belong to fiscal year 2014. In order to better align with calendar years and make international comparisons more meaningful, in the Major Players section of this report, Emerging Markets Insight has chosen to label data by

the year in which most of the result occurred. Unless otherwise stated, in the Major Players section of this report, 2012, for example, means the 12 months between Apr 1, 2012 - Mar 31, 2013, or what in India is referred to as fiscal 2013. This applies only to Indian companies and does not apply to companies with global operations, which may be presented in this report.

When sources have not provided details on their year labeling policy, year labels in graphs featured in this report have been presented as provided by the source.

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- 4 -

Retail Sector Highlights

Importance of Retail

In FY 2012, organized retail represented some 8% of the USD 430 bn Indian retail industry, CRISIL said in Sep 2012. The total retail sector accounted for some 25% of GDP, while organized retail contributed some 2%, Technopak figures showed. The food and grocery segment accounted for more than half of the retail market, but claimed organized retail sales of between 2% (CRISIL) and 11% (Deloitte). The retail sector is one of the biggest employers in India with a nearly 24-million workforce, Technopak said. The country was the world’s 12th-largest consumer durables market in FY 2012 and is forecast to rank fifth-largest by FY 2025, IBEF said in Aug 2013.

FDI Policy

In Aug 2013, the Indian government relaxed the rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail in an attempt to woo investors, as no foreign multi-brand retailer has set up shop in India since 51% FDI in multi-brand retail was first permitted in the country in Sep 2012. FDI in multibrand retail is a state subject and as per the policy, e-commerce is not allowed as an alternate channel as it can serve the customer beyond the physical location of the store, Deloitte India commented. Political changes in the state and central governments and the USD/INR currency

fluctuation pose risks to foreign investment in retail in India.

Challenges

States in India differ in terms of culture, language, socio-economic development and spending power, so international retailers would need to customize their offerings to suit regional tastes, Deloitte India said. The choice of real estate suitable for large retail operations is very limited, which will be a major challenge to the corporatized retail’s ability to grow, Technopak pointed out. Real estate limitations may also give a boost to informal retail channels. To meet the FDI policy guidelines on sourcing and improve margins, foreign retailers would need to work with local manufacturers to create India-specific private label brands.

Way Ahead

Domestic retailers should focus on expanding their footprint not only in metropolitan areas, but also in towns with population of less than one million. Although foreign retailers have been allowed to operate in smaller cities since Aug 2013, they may reasonably be expected to prefer larger ones, leaving smaller urban and rural areas to domestic companies. While foreign retailers hunt for suitable retail spaces, domestic ones can apply accommodation flexibility and use their exclusive insight into the Indian consumption patterns to gain an edge over their global competitors. Issues that both local and foreign retailers will face include transportation and electricity supply challenges as well as finding skilled manpower.

Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.

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Main Sector Indicators

Main Retail Sector Indicators

  • FY 2001
  • FY 2012
  • FY 2021

  • National GDP, USD bn
  • 450

120
1,958
490
3,310

  • 810
  • Estimated Merchandise Consumption (Retail Market Opportunity), USD bn

Urban consumption (% and value)

Rural consumption (% and value)
40% (USD 48 bn) 60% (USD 72 bn)
48% (USD 235 bn) 52% (USD 255 bn)
56% (USD 455 bn) 44% (USD 355 bn)
Share of Corporatized (Organized) Retail
Share of Independent Retail
~4% 96%
5
~7% 93%
34
~20%
80%

  • 162
  • Size of Corporatized (Organized) Retail, USD bn

  • Size Of Independent Retail (USD bn)
  • 115
  • 455
  • 648

  • Share of Indian Corporatized Retailers in Total Corporatized Retail
  • ~100%
  • ~95%
  • 50%

Comments

India is home to approximately 15 million shops, the majority of which are run as standalone entities owned and operated by members of the same family. Employment in this segment, referred to as independent retail, averages 1.5 employees per shop. These employees have no social security and no say on working conditions and wages, Technopak commented in an Oct 2012 paper on FDI in the Indian retail sector. Independent retail is expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. Therefore, a labor policy that manages to bring this large informal workforce in an environment of formal employment is much needed.

Source: Technopak Analysis

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Retail Sector Snapshot

  • India's Retail Sector, FY 2012
  • India's Organized Retail Sector, FY 2012

Pie chart shows both organized and unorganized segments
Mobile and Telecom 6%
Consumer Electronics 8%

Apparel 8%

  • Jewelry 6%
  • Food Service 5%

Others 24%

Jewelry 4%
Consumer
Food Service 7%
Size of Organized

Retail, FY 2012:

USD 34 bn
Electronics 3%

  • Pharmacy 3%
  • Food and Grocery

60%

Mobile and Telecom 11%
(Technopak)
Food and Grocery
11%

Others 11%

Size of Indian Retail Sector, 2012:

  • USD 430 bn (CRISIL)
  • Apparel 33%

USD 490 bn (Technopak)

  • FMCG Market Break-Down by Product, FY 2013
  • FDI in FMCG, FY 2001-FY 2013, USD mn

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
800 600 400

200

0

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

1,811.10
Personal Care

20%
46.60%

Tobacco 15%
865.5
22.25%
632.4

16.25%
384.9

9.89%
Household

Consumables 10%

  • 101.2
  • 95.4

2.60%

2.45%

0%
Retail Tea, Coffee Vegetable Trading Oil
Soaps, Paper, Pulp Cosmetics
Food
Processing

Others 2%
Food and

Beverages 53%

  • FDI in FMCG, FY 2001-FY 2013, USD mn
  • % of Total FDI in FMCG

Source: Deloitte Jan 2013; Images Group; Reuters; D&B FMCG Sector, Aug 2013; IBEF; DIPP; Aranca Research;

Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.

- 7 -

FMCG Market Snapshot

  • Indian FMCG Market Size
  • Exports and Imports of FMCG

2,000 1,800 1,600
20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

1,766
18.5%

1,395
121.2
1,539
16.3%

14.8%

1,400

  • 84.3
  • 1,177

1,200 1,000
800 600 400 200
0

1,012
61.3

  • 10.3%
  • 59.8

  • 51.6
  • 51.6

49.3

37.2
30
27.1

  • FY 2009
  • FY 2010
  • FY 2011
  • FY 2012
  • FY 2013

  • FY 2009
  • FY 2010
  • FY 2011
  • FY 2012
  • FY 2013

  • FMCG Imports, INR bn
  • FMCG Exports, INR bn

  • Indian FMCG Market Size, INR bn
  • % y/y growth

  • Top FMCG Players in India (Based on FY 2012 Earnings)
  • Total Distribution Reach of FMCG Players

Nirma Ltd. 4.44%
Nestle India Ltd.

HUL

Nestle

6.3

5.00%
3.6

GSK

1.5
3.9
3.3
4.6
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.9
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
15.06%

GCPL

Others 35.70%

Marico Colgate Emami Dabur

Ruchi Soya

Industries Ltd.

16.92%

ITC
Jyothy Labs

Total Distribution Reach of FMCG Players, million outlets

ITC Ltd. 22.88%

Source: D&B FMCG Sector, Aug 2013; EM Insight calculations; Tata Securities Research;

Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.

- 8 -

Number and Size of Stores in India

  • Number and Average Size of Stores in India
  • Share in Total Space by Store Types, %

120% 100%
80% 60% 40% 20%
0%

70,000

0.3% 2%
1% 2%

Cash & Carry Hypermarkets
67,100
Convenience

Stores

2%

50,000
30,000
Discount Stores
Department Stores

Supermarkets
37%
Specialty

Stores/EBOs

  • 36,830
  • 50%

2,000

1,500 1,000 700
75%

8%

Supermarkets
Specialty Stores/EBOs

Discount Stores

9%
21%

11,192

2006

Department Stores

5%
20%
7%

Hypermarkets
25%

7%

Convenience Stores
10%
17%

2%

  • 2011
  • 2016 F

Cash & Carry

1%

Total Number of Stores in India

Average Size of Stores in India, 2011, sq ft

  • 2006
  • 2011
  • 2016 F

Number of Stores byType

50,000
30,000

10,000

8,500

  • 4,000
  • 4,000

2,000

1,500

1,400

  • 1,000
  • 600
  • 500
  • 500

400

  • 300
  • 200
  • 100
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 2

  • Convenience Stores
  • Discount Stores
  • Specialty Stores/EBOs
  • Supermarkets
  • Department Stores
  • Hypermarkets
  • Cash & Carry

2006 2011 2016 F livemint.com (based on forecasts by Boston Consulting Group, Ernst and Young Pvt. Ltd., Deloitte Haskins and Sells, KPMG Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd., Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd. and Booz and Co.)

Source:

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- 9 -

Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.

Indian Retail in Global Rankings

  • India's GRDI Score, 2013
  • Retail Real Estate Momentum Index, Global Top 20 Markets

Change in Rank Compared to 2012

  • Country
  • GRDI Score 2013

Based on growth

China

projections of total

India

Brazil Chile
69.5% 67.1% 63.5% 66.5% 53.9% 66.1%

55%

-

population, population, GDP/capita, sales and modern shopping center urban GDP, retail

-

Indonesia, Turkey Brazil, Vietnam

  • UAE
  • +2

+1 -9 -1

-9

-2 +2 -2
Uruguay Oman China

stock, combined with real estate investment

Peru, Thailand, Russia Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Chile

  • and
  • international

retailer presence.

India

Georgia Mongolia Peru
61.4% 62.5% 56.5%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aug 2012

Ukraine, Morocco, Saudi Arabia Poland, Mexico, Philippines, Colombia

How India Compares to Other Markets - A.T. Kearney's Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), 2013

Peru
Mongolia Georgia
India

52.9%

Peru

Mongolia

Georgia
India

63.4%

63.3% 63.5%

Peru
Mongolia Georgia
India

60.4%
17.7%
99.0%

83.4%
37.0%
36.6%

36.8%
63.8%
59.4%

China

62.1%

77.5%

92.0%

China

34.3%

China

67.9%

Oman Uruguay
UAE Chile Brazil
Oman Uruguay
UAE Chile Brazil

11.3%
3.0%

Oman

Uruguay
UAE Chile Brazil

97.8%
94.6%
73.9%
95.8% 95.6%
18.7%
100.0%

86.2%
43.3%
100.0%

Market Attractiveness, %

  • Country Risk, %
  • Market Saturation, %

Source: The 2013 Global Retail Development Index 2013 by A.T.Kearney; Jones Lang LaSalle 2012;

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- 10 -

Major Players by Retail Format

  • Organized Convenience Store Market in India
  • Grocery retailers in India, FY 2012

The convenience store market accounted for 7.4% of the total organized retail market in India

250 200
26%

214.1

  • Company Name
  • Market Share, FY 2012

25% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23%

25.00%
173.3
139.8

Future Value Retail Ltd. Reliance Retail Ltd.
0.50% 0.30% 0.10%

150 in FY 2011.
24.27%
112.5

23.96%

90

100

23.54%

Mother Dairy Fruit & Vegetable Pvt. Ltd.
50

  • Others
  • 99.00%

0

  • FY 2011
  • FY 2012 Est. FY 2013 F
  • FY 2014 F
  • FY 2015 F

Number of outlets - 12 million in 2012

  • Organized Convenience Store Market in India, INR bn
  • % y/y change

  • Mixed Retailers in India, FY 2012
  • Electronics (l) and Apparel (r) Specialist Retailers, FY 2012

Trent 6.90%
Airplaza Retail

Holdings 8.80%

Electronics and Appliance Specialist
Retailers
Apparel Specialist
Retailers
Market Share, FY
2012

Fabindia Overseas
6.90%

Market Share, FY 2012

LG Electronics India
Infiniti Retail
3.2% 2.8% 2.5%
Raymond Bata India
0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Pantaloon Retail India 16%
Reliance Retail
6.20%

  • Next India Retail
  • Reebok India

MobileStore Vijay Sales
2.2% 2.1%
Aditya Birla Nuvo Benetton India
0.4% 0.3%
Others 15.20%
Lifestyle International
19.90%

  • Samsung India Electronics
  • 1.7%
  • Adidas India Marketing
  • 0.2%

Shopper's Stop
20%
Pantaloon Retail India
Others

  • 1.5%
  • Levi Strauss India

Others
0.2%

  • 84.1%
  • 97.5%

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    International Conference on Management and Information Systems September 22-24, 2013 Indian Brands Striving to Make Comeback Rhizu Krishna Misra [email protected] Sinhgad Institute of Business Management, Mumbai Once a brand achieves a lot of success in the market and becomes a star, what makes it to lose its sheen? How the once the star brand strive to make a successful come back. This article seeks to explore and answer why a successful brand of the past Afghan Snow and Paan Pasand lost their market share and how they are developing to make the comeback in the one of the rapidly growing market of the Globe i.e. India. Brand Managers may find the factors responsible for fading of this shining star useful while estimating their own brands for any possible threats. Keywords: Brand Revival, Brand Failure, Brand Promotion 1. Introduction The name India reminds us of the vibrancy different culture, different religions, different people, different caste, and different festivals and different believes in different states. In a nutshell we can say Unity in Diversity. But the country has vast history and looking India in the 19th century it can be divided into two categories first Pre-Republic Era and Post-Republic Era. Second category in Post-Republic era can be Pre-economic liberalization Era and Post- economic liberalization era. Pre-Republic era the Indian Economy was based more on agriculture and manufacturing. In Post- Republic era economy was shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services. The industries in this era were mainly dominated by the public sector unit and few private players.

  • Fair Trade Without the Froth Fair Trade Without the Froth a Dispassionate Economic Analysis of ‘Fair Trade’

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  • Annual Report Südzucker AG 2008/09 Annual Südzucker Report AG 2008/09 Statements Tion

    Annual Report Südzucker AG 2008/09 Annual Südzucker Report AG 2008/09 Statements Tion

    Annual Report Südzucker AG 2008/09 – Overview of 2008/09 – Key figures ➥ Annual Report Südzucker 2008/09 AG Financial calendar 1st quarter report 2009/10 15 July 2009 Annual general meeting for 2008/09 21 July 2009 2nd quarter report 2009/10 15 October 2009 3rd quarter report 2009/10 14 January 2010 Press and analysts’ conference for 2009/10 27 May 2010 1st quarter report 2010/11 14 July 2010 Annual general meeting for 2009/10 20 July 2010 The annual report is also available in German. This translation is provided for convenience only and should not be relied upon exclusively. The German ver- sion of the annual report is definitive and takes precedence over this transla- tion. The annual report (in German and English) and the Südzucker AG financial statements can be downloaded from our homepage at www.suedzucker.de/ en/Investor-Relations/Publikationen/Berichte/Berichte-2008-09/ The numbers in brackets in the report represent the corresponding prior year’s figures or items. Annual Report Südzucker AG 2008/09 – Overview of 2008/09 – Key figures ➥ Annual Report Südzucker 2008/09 AG Financial calendar 1st quarter report 2009/10 15 July 2009 Annual general meeting for 2008/09 21 July 2009 2nd quarter report 2009/10 15 October 2009 3rd quarter report 2009/10 14 January 2010 Press and analysts’ conference for 2009/10 27 May 2010 1st quarter report 2010/11 14 July 2010 Annual general meeting for 2009/10 20 July 2010 The annual report is also available in German. This translation is provided for convenience only and should not be relied upon exclusively.