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Retail Sector India Retail Sector India December 2013 Produced by: Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 1 - Table of Contents I. Retail Sector Overview 5. Semi-Processed Food Market 1. Retail Sector Highlights 6. Frozen Processed Food and Ready Meals 2. Main Sector Indicators 7. Milk and Cheese 8. Beverage and Cigarette Highlights 3. Retail Sector Snapshot 4. FMCG Market Snapshot 9. Alcoholic Beverage Data 5. Number and Size of Stores in India 10.Beer and Cigarette Data 6. Indian Retail in Global Rankings 11.Soft Drink and Bottled Water Highlights 7. Major Players by Retail Format 12.Soft Drinks and Bottled Water 8. Retail Sector Forecast III.Personal Hygiene and Care, Detergents 9. Retail Sector Forecast (cont’d) 1. Personal Hygiene Highlights 10.Indian Population and the Retail Market 2. Personal Hygiene Market 11.New Rules for FDI in Multi-Brand Retail 3. Personal Hygiene Market Forecast 12.Government Policy 4. Personal Care Highlights 13.Government Policy (cont’d) 5. Skincare 14.Employment 6. Color Cosmetics 15.Retail Sector SWOT Analysis 7. Natural Cosmetics and Fragrance II. Food & Beverages 8. Dishwashing and Laundry Care 1. Packaged Food Market IV. Apparel and Footwear 2. Ready-to-Eat Market 1. Apparel Market 3. Confectionery Highlights 2. Apparel Market (cont’d) 4. Bread 3. Athletic Apparel and Footwear 4. Other Apparel Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 2 - Table of Contents V. Consumer Durables 3. Carrefour Wholesale Cash&Carry India Pvt. Ltd. 1. Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances – SWOT 4. TESCO/Trent Analysis 5. IKEA 2. Consumer Durables Snapshot 6. Future Retail Ltd. 3. White Goods 7. Reliance Retail 4. Brown Goods 5. Consumer Electronics 6. Consumer Durable Financing in India VI. Other Segments 1. Pharmaceuticals 2. Motor Vehicles 3. Luxury Goods VII. E-Commerce (B2C) 1. E-Commerce Highlights 2. E-Commerce in India Snapshot 3. E-Tailing Data 4. E-Commerce – Ecosystem and Challenges VIII. Major Players 1. Top M&A Deals 2. Bharti Retail Pvt. Ltd. Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 3 - I. Retail Sector Overview India’s fiscal year runs from Apr 1 to March 31. Thus, FY 2013 (also called fiscal 2013) means Apr 1, 2012 – Mar 31, 2013. In Indian documents, FY (fiscal) 2013 is also labeled FY12-13. The remaining nine months of calendar 2013, i.e. Apr-Dec, belong to fiscal year 2014. In order to better align with calendar years and make international comparisons more meaningful, in the Major Players section of this report, Emerging Markets Insight has chosen to label data by the year in which most of the result occurred. Unless otherwise stated, in the Major Players section of this report, 2012, for example, means the 12 months between Apr 1, 2012 - Mar 31, 2013, or what in India is referred to as fiscal 2013. This applies only to Indian companies and does not apply to companies with global operations, which may be presented in this report. When sources have not provided details on their year labeling policy, year labels in graphs featured in this report have been presented as provided by the source. Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 4 - Retail Sector Highlights Importance of Retail In FY 2012, organized retail represented some 8% of the USD 430 bn Indian retail industry, CRISIL said in Sep 2012. The total retail sector accounted for some 25% of GDP, while organized retail contributed some 2%, Technopak figures showed. The food and grocery segment accounted for more than half of the retail market, but claimed organized retail sales of between 2% (CRISIL) and 11% (Deloitte). The retail sector is one of the biggest employers in India with a nearly 24-million workforce, Technopak said. The country was the world’s 12th-largest consumer durables market in FY 2012 and is forecast to rank fifth-largest by FY 2025, IBEF said in Aug 2013. FDI Policy In Aug 2013, the Indian government relaxed the rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail in an attempt to woo investors, as no foreign multi-brand retailer has set up shop in India since 51% FDI in multi-brand retail was first permitted in the country in Sep 2012. FDI in multi- brand retail is a state subject and as per the policy, e-commerce is not allowed as an alternate channel as it can serve the customer beyond the physical location of the store, Deloitte India commented. Political changes in the state and central governments and the USD/INR currency fluctuation pose risks to foreign investment in retail in India. Challenges States in India differ in terms of culture, language, socio-economic development and spending power, so international retailers would need to customize their offerings to suit regional tastes, Deloitte India said. The choice of real estate suitable for large retail operations is very limited, which will be a major challenge to the corporatized retail’s ability to grow, Technopak pointed out. Real estate limitations may also give a boost to informal retail channels. To meet the FDI policy guidelines on sourcing and improve margins, foreign retailers would need to work with local manufacturers to create India-specific private label brands. Way Ahead Domestic retailers should focus on expanding their footprint not only in metropolitan areas, but also in towns with population of less than one million. Although foreign retailers have been allowed to operate in smaller cities since Aug 2013, they may reasonably be expected to prefer larger ones, leaving smaller urban and rural areas to domestic companies. While foreign retailers hunt for suitable retail spaces, domestic ones can apply accommodation flexibility and use their exclusive insight into the Indian consumption patterns to gain an edge over their global competitors. Issues that both local and foreign retailers will face include transportation and electricity supply challenges as well as finding skilled manpower. Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 5 - Main Sector Indicators Main Retail Sector Indicators FY 2001 FY 2012 FY 2021 National GDP, USD bn 450 1,958 3,310 Estimated Merchandise Consumption (Retail Market Opportunity), USD bn 120 490 810 Urban consumption (% and value) 40% (USD 48 bn) 48% (USD 235 bn) 56% (USD 455 bn) Rural consumption (% and value) 60% (USD 72 bn) 52% (USD 255 bn) 44% (USD 355 bn) Share of Corporatized (Organized) Retail ~4% ~7% ~20% Share of Independent Retail 96% 93% 80% Size of Corporatized (Organized) Retail, USD bn 5 34 162 Size Of Independent Retail (USD bn) 115 455 648 Share of Indian Corporatized Retailers in Total Corporatized Retail ~100% ~95% 50% Comments India is home to approximately 15 million shops, the majority of which are run as standalone entities owned and operated by members of the same family. Employment in this segment, referred to as independent retail, averages 1.5 employees per shop. These employees have no social security and no say on working conditions and wages, Technopak commented in an Oct 2012 paper on FDI in the Indian retail sector. Independent retail is expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. Therefore, a labor policy that manages to bring this large informal workforce in an environment of formal employment is much needed. Source: Technopak Analysis Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 6 - Retail Sector Snapshot India's Retail Sector, FY 2012 India's Organized Retail Sector, FY 2012 Pie chart shows both Apparel 8% Mobile and Consumer organized and unorganized Telecom 6% Electronics 8% segments Jewelry 6% Food Service 5% Others 24% Jewelry 4% Food Service 7% Consumer Electronics 3% Size of Organized Retail, FY 2012: Food and Grocery Pharmacy 3% USD 34 bn 60% Mobile and (Technopak) Telecom 11% Food and Grocery Others 11% 11% Size of Indian Retail Sector, 2012: USD 430 bn (CRISIL) Apparel 33% USD 490 bn (Technopak) FMCG Market Break-Down by Product, FY 2013 FDI in FMCG, FY 2001-FY 2013, USD mn 2,000 1,811.10 50% Personal Care 1,800 45% 20% 1,600 46.60% 40% 1,400 35% Tobacco 15% 1,200 30% 1,000 865.5 25% 22.25% 800 632.4 20% 16.25% 600 384.9 15% Household 400 9.89% 10% Consumables 10% 200 95.4 101.2 5% 2.45% 2.60% 0 0% Others 2% Retail Tea, Coffee Vegetable Soaps, Paper, Pulp Food Food and Beverages 53% Trading Oil Cosmetics Processing FDI in FMCG, FY 2001-FY 2013, USD mn % of Total FDI in FMCG Source: Deloitte Jan 2013; Images Group; Reuters; D&B FMCG Sector, Aug 2013; IBEF; DIPP; Aranca Research; Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. - 7 - FMCG Market Snapshot Indian FMCG Market Size Exports and Imports of FMCG 2,000 20% 1,766 1,800 18.5% 18% 121.2 16.3% 1,539 1,600 1,395 16% 14.8% 1,400 1,177 14% 84.3 1,200 1,012 12% 1,000 10.3% 10% 59.8 61.3 51.6 51.6 49.3 800 8% 37.2 600 6% 27.1 30 400 4% 200 2% 0 0% FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FMCG Imports, INR bn FMCG Exports, INR bn Indian FMCG Market Size, INR bn % y/y growth Top FMCG Players in India (Based on FY 2012 Earnings) Total Distribution Reach of FMCG Players Nirma Ltd.
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