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Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographicaliy in this copy. Higher quality 6” x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. ProQuest Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Aitor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 UMI CIVIL WAR, MACRO-SOCIAL CONTEXTS, AND INTERVENING MECHANISMS: IDENTIFYING STRUCTURAL LINKAGES DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Matthew Christenson, M.Div., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2001 Dissertation Committee: Approved by: Edward M. Crenshaw, Adviser .dviser J. Craig Jenkins Department of Sociology Pamela Paxton UMI Number: 3031188 UMI' UMI Microform3031188 Copyright 2002 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Infomiation and Leaming Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT Civil war is an especially threatening social phenomenon because of its catastrophic impact on human welfare. The gravity of this problem makes essential the development of frameworks that indicate where civil wars are likely to break out. The research described here accomplishes this by developing an approach to the study of civil war that links existing perspectives on revolutions and other forms of collective violence with macro-social theories of societal development. This framework is then employed as a guide for multivariate statistical investigations. I use event-history analysis to study the onset of civil wars. This investigation is novel in that it explores the ways that social grievance and institutional failure are contingent upon the larger social context from which they emerge and uses statistical techniques that permit the study of the temporal elements of civil war. On the macro-social level, I confirm that mid-levels of both industrial development and techno-ecological Inheritance encourage civil war, while a strong service sector discourages civil war. In terms of intervening mechanisms, 1 find that mid-levels of inequality, as well as high levels of discrimination and minority grievances, are all associated with rapid movement toward civil war. u Byaddingafocnyoir the^broadersociahcontexts-of crvtl^ war, tMy study expantfe the temporal perspective of existing early warning methodologies, making earlier detection possible and thereby improving the efficiency of potential interventions. u i To My Wife Monica IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Numerous people have shaped and supported me in the time leading up to and during the process of developing this dissertation. To begin, I wish to thank Ed Crenshaw, my advisor, for his professional mentoring, his meticulous guidance at each step of the dissertation process, and for setting a high standard of scholarship as an excellent model to emulate. I also wish to acknowledge the members of my committee, J. Craig Jenkins and Pamela Paxton, for their helpful comments and their flexibility at the end of this process. Further, I wish to thank the professors and staff in the sociology department for their support and collegiality, and the staff at the International Programs Center of the U.S. Census Bureau for their encouragement as I sought to bring my formal education to closure. On a more personal note, I thank the many friends I met in Latin America who encouraged me to embrace myself as a "first-worlder" and to struggle with the challenges of the world accordingly. My parents also deserve special recognition for providing me with a model of lives dedicated to issues that affect real people. Finally, I wish to thank my wife, Monica, to whom this work is dedicated, and my children, Kyle and Leah, for their sacrifice and dedication, but mostly for the relationships we share that consistently provide me with a sense of both vocational and personal afhrmation. VITA June 18, 1964 Bom - Minneapolis, Minnesota May, 1986 Bachelor of Arts, Summa cum Laude Concordia College, Moorhead, Minnesota May, 1992 Master of Divinity Trinity Lutheran Seminary, Columbus, Ohio 1992-93 University Fellow The Ohio State University August, 1994 Master of Arts The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1996 Admitted to Candidacy The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1997-present Statistician/Demographer International Programs Center, U.S. Census Bureau Publications 1) Christenson, Matthew. IQOHforthcoming). “Global Population Growth.” Chapter 1 in Global Population Profile: 2000. International Programs Center, U.S. Census Bureau: Washington, D C. 2) Christenson, Matthew. 2Q0Ï (forthcoming). “Global Population Composition.” Chapter 2 in Global Population Profile: 2000. International Programs Center, U.S. Census Bureau: Washington, D.C. 3) Crenshaw, Edward, Matthew Christenson and Doyle Ray Oakey. 1999. “Demographic Transition in Ecological Focus.” American Sociological Review 65:371-391. VI Christenson, Matthew; anchEdward Crenshaw. t997. '^Democracy's Handmaiden: Educational Constraints on Political and Economic Modernization," in N.F. McGinn and E.H. Epstein (eds.), The Role o fEducation in Democratization, Volume I: Transitional States and States o f Transition. New York: Peter Lang Publishers. 5) Crenshaw, Edward, Ansari Ameen and Matthew Christenson. 1997. "Population Dynamics and Economic Development: The Differential Effects of Age-Specific Population Growth Rates on Per Capita Economic Growth in Developing Countries, 1965 to 1990”. American Sociological Review 62:91 F ields o f St u d y Major Field: Sociology Topics of Interest: Demography, International Development, and International Conflict vu TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................ii DEDICATION.......................................................................................................................iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................................................................................... v VITA...................................................................................................................................... Vi LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................................xi LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................. xiii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1 Motivation for the Study of Civil Wa r .....................................................................I Civil Wars , 1965-1992..................................................................................................... 4 The state of our knowledge : ........................................................................................7 The Current Analysis ..................................................................................................13 CHAPTER 2: THEORIES OF CIVIL WAR......................................................................15 Conceptualizing Civil War ..........................................................................................15 The Immediate Conditions to Civil Wa r ...................................................................16 The Motives to Violent Collective Action ...................................................................18 Grievance and Violent Collective Action ................................................................18 Greed and Violent Collective Action ...................................................................... 23 The Means to Violent Collective Action ..................................................................... 26 The Opportunities for Violent Collective Action ........................................................ 29 The Macro -social Environment and civil war ....................................................... 32 Structural Modernization Theory and Civil W ar ........................................................ 33 Human Ecology Theory and Civil War ....................................................................... 37 Techno-Ecological hiheritance and Violent Collective Action: ............................39 The Service Sector and Violent Collective Action:

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